After a relatively busy, yet memorable/somber May, we enter June which typically is the last month of our peak season for severe weather. We tend to transition to a pattern that is more dominated by Northwest flow and MCS's from Colorado and Kansas. We'll have to wait and see though since we have had a very wet May but also a delayed storm season.



Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Fire Weather Images


Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW60.grad.png?1343628443278O klahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://okfire.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/models/realtime/nfd/images/latest.bi.gif?1343629065Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/NWRT_Reflectivity_00.51.pngMulti-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)
State Satellite Images
Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif
References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
NWS Norman Page: NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page (http://www.mesonet.org/)
West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/)
Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather)
Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference (http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php) -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.


Tutorial: WHAT SPC PERCENTAGES MEANS IN RELATION TO CATEGORICAL RISK LEVEL
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day1_seetext.jpg
Tutorial: HOW TO READ SKEW-T CHARTS

The main Skew-T is your 3 lines with wind barbs on both sides. So the lines first off. Solid is air temp and dashed dewpoint. The dotted line is the temp of the parcel of air as it goes up. So follow that up. If the solid line is to the right of that dotted line that is air that is warmer than that parcel and the parcel won't rise. Also known as your cap. When the air parcel gets warmer than air temp that area between the solid line and dotted line, that is your CAPE. This also shows that the parcel of air will continue to rise up until it meets the air temp again. Here is a good video to help explain it...

bOnGFHXkQ8w

Okay so we are looking at that and we can things are going to be unstable with a lot of CAPE. Move of to the wind barbs on the right, that is your wind direction and speed at the various heights. This is also how we detect shear. The two main kinds are going to be speed shear and directional shear. In this exactly we are seeing surface winds out of the SE/SSE, or backed winds as you'll read often, and then they change directions to the SW and WSW as you go up in height. Good example of directional shear. Speed shear is when you have wind speed increase as you go up. We have some of that here as well. All in all this says, good shear. Sometimes you have to be careful of too much shear or speeds being too high in the upper levels because that can just rip updrafts apart.

So we got an unstable atmosphere and wind shear. Finally the squiggly line that is the hodograph. Used to find things like shear vectors and storm relative winds. These are good to help determine if you are going to be dealing with splitting storms and such. Typically in class right turning supercells we look for the hodograph to arch from the center to the right. Which we have here...for the most part. I won't get too much more into it right now, but googling should bring up a ton of resources on it. :)

So now we get down to the values. A lot of these are open to interpretation and how they play into storm formation, severe storms, and tornadoes. I'm just going to hit on a few of the variables instead of every one, otherwise this will be a book and probably confuse more than need be. Going left to right since these aren't perfect columns.



LI - Lifted Index. Negative is unstable, usually want lower than -4 for severe.
KI or K Index you usually want mid 20s for storm development and over 35 for strong development.
Equil P - That is where your air parcel meets the air temp again after getting warmer than it.
HAIL - Subjective to this sounding project on estimated hail size.
ConvT - Convective temperature or air temp needed to break cap without much forcing. This is more important in summer usually.
Lapse Rates also need to be looked at, in this care the value is favorable for severe weather.
SRH this is the Storm Relative Helicity in the first kilometer of air from the service...or your low level shear. This is also modified by the direction storms will move. Usually anything over 150 would be pretty significant.
SWEAT Index helps highlight severe storm potential. Usually 300-500 is what we look for, anything higher is significant.
TTI or Total Totals is another index looked at for storm development in general. Mid 40s are usually looked at for storm development, anything higher would indicate a more volatile setup.
Storm Dir/Speed - This is your storm direction in degrees and this is where the storm is coming from. So the example here is ~ 225 degrees which translates into moving NE. Speed is in knots so take the value and multiply by 1.15 to get MPH.
CapI - Strength of cap. Usually you want 2 or lower to help keep somewhat of a lid on things early. Over 4 requires a nuke to get rid of, less would lead to grunge fest.
LCL - Lowest cooling level. This is the atmospheric pressure height (measured in millibars) where the air can condense and form clouds. So a high number here means the level is lower to the ground and better chance for surface based convection. If you see numbers lower than say 850 mb, you are talking mostly high based elevated storms. Tornadoes need high LCL values (or lower cooling levels) since they are tied with surface based storms in most cases.
Sup Potential: Value specific to this product estimating percentage chance if any storm forms that it will be severe.
Precip Water measures the amount of water in the air. Usually you don't want it more than 1.5 or 1.75 for severe storms otherwise you are looking at just heavy rain. Lower than say 0.75 and its going to be too dry for much precip.
CAPE most are familiar with. Anything over 0 is unstable. Depending on the season will determine how much you need. Usually anything over 2000 j/kg is very unstable. However as we get into late spring/summer you'll see values over 5000 but not get anything. Even though its extremely unstable, it doesn't do any good without lift or something to break a cap.
CINH: Convective inhibition. Usually when you start getting lower than -100 you have issues getting anything going.
0-1km Shear - Like earlier this is your shear in the first kilometer of air, but this isn't storm direction dependant. When you start getting over 100 to 150 in this department you need to start being vigilant.
1km EHI or Energy Helicity Index another way to measure energy/shear. Usually more than 2 or 3 is pretty high.


That's pretty much the main ones without going longer...which I already went a bit too long. We can get more specific about the individual values if more clarification is needed. I went pretty general and with a broad brush on a lot of these. This is mainly to give you an idea of what to look for. The main thing to remember is that so much goes into this, and hopefully this is another example of how much there is, that you can't focus on just a few of these and figure big time storms. Think of it as a recipe. You have to have near perfect amounts of each to get a good tasting soup...otherwise you are just left with a pot full of odd smelling/looking/tasting water.

Well the new watch technically goes into tomorrow, so will put it here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0269_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 265...WW
266...WW 267...WW 268...


DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ABOVE A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH MAY LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
IMPULSE TURNS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
SHEAR...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

Venture, is it too early to tell what the storms next week are going to be like?

Nah, that's why I wanted to get this thread up because people were asking in the chat.

Below are some images showing the supercell composite index which just highlights chances for storms to be severe if they occur, not a guarantee. Looking at chances of precip we are looking at overnight complex late Monday into early Tuesday. Tuesday Afternoon/Evening Central and Western OK storms. Wednesday storms West, central, and Northeast. Thursday West into central and East. Saturday NW to SE. Monday early Cental.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_096.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_120.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_144.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_192.gif

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jun13/01.png

Latest trend shows the line moving back to the south now, with the individual cells still moving SE. Extreme flooding is going to develop - please be safe!

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Storms firing in NW OK into panhandle as cool front slides in.

This will push the development back towards OKC proper and eventually a large swath of rain and storms will sweep ove much of NC, C, NE, and E OK.

Like I said in the last thread. Some places in OKC will have close to ten inches of rain from tonight.

Stay off roads tonight and in the morning.

Radar estimated storm total precip...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jun13/01-1.png

Radar always overestimates a bit from hail etc. but those amounts will be actual if this keeps up.

Downtown OKC is a mess from the sights and sounds of it.

Radar always overestimates a bit from hail etc. but those amounts will be actual if this keeps up.

Downtown OKC is a mess from the sights and sounds of it.

Most definitely. Compare it to the mesonet above and can tell how much it over does it. I believe if hail is in there that'll throw it off as well.

This flooding could possibly go down as the worst in OKC modern history. This will rival and probably pass the N OKC / Edmond event a few years ago in June.

So this is what happened with the three years of rain we misplaced

Storm in NW OK County that is severe warned is below limits now it seems. Hail down to 0.75" and wind maybe 50 mph.

North Canadian is at flood stage near Lake Overholser.
http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/images/basins/canadian.gif

Latest trend shows the line moving back to the south now, with the individual cells still moving SE. Extreme flooding is going to develop - please be safe!

Well, darn, Stillwater gets bypassed again. Much of that area only got under an inch of rain, Friday. Sure sorry, though, that much of OKC is getting overly deluged, besides having the tornado damage and deaths to deal with.

I heard it said that officially OKC set an an all time record for total rainfall in May with around 14 inches.

Well, darn, Stillwater gets bypassed again. Much of that area only got under an inch of rain, Friday. Sure sorry, though, that much of OKC is getting overly deluged, besides having the tornado damage and deaths to deal with.

I heard it said that officially OKC set an an all time record for total rainfall in May with around 14 inches.
Bunty, don't knock it. An inch of rain isn't something bad with June on the horizon. From the way it's looking on radar, you could still get more tonight.

I wanted to touch on the long term forecast again. Looking at the GFS tonight for the period going beyond next Sunday (week from tomorrow) we are looking at storm chances returning for every day through Sunday the 16th. Instability will be moderate to high each day, but that doesn't mean everyone will get storms each day. It also doesn't mean everyone will get severe weather. As we get into summer it normally takes higher amounts of instability to get severe weather than it does in Spring. The good news in all of this, temps looks like they won't jump into the 100s anytime soon across most of the state - limited to just the West/Southwest part.

I just wanted to point out, I took a drive through Edmond 30 mins ago(yes, I know people shouldn't be out driving, but I did anyways, because thats what I do), and I saw about 3 businesses with their sprinkler systems running. NO JOKE! Not that it really matters at this point in time, but it matters in the sense that if they're doing it when it is raining this much, they'll do it when every drop counts and we have a storm(during that time) that would allow them to take a weeks break of watering.

I wanted to touch on the long term forecast again. Looking at the GFS tonight for the period going beyond next Sunday (week from tomorrow) we are looking at storm chances returning for every day through Sunday the 16th. Instability will be moderate to high each day, but that doesn't mean everyone will get storms each day. It also doesn't mean everyone will get severe weather. As we get into summer it normally takes higher amounts of instability to get severe weather than it does in Spring. The good news in all of this, temps looks like they won't jump into the 100s anytime soon across most of the state - limited to just the West/Southwest part.

And I assume that all of the wet weather we are getting now should temper potential summer heat unlike the last couple of years.

I just wanted to point out, I took a drive through Edmond 30 mins ago(yes, I know people shouldn't be out driving, but I did anyways, because thats what I do), and I saw about 3 businesses with their sprinkler systems running. NO JOKE! Not that it really matters at this point in time, but it matters in the sense that if they're doing it when it is raining this much, they'll do it when every drop counts and we have a storm(during that time) that would allow them to take a weeks break of watering.


Plupan, I understand your point but I don't really see any major issue during the situation we're having tonight. Our water supply is filling up and overflowing much faster than a few sprinklers can deplete it. I'm sure the businesses where that was happening were wishing they could stop it too. It's costing them money.

Plupan, I understand your point but I don't really see any major issue during the situation we're having tonight. Our water supply is filling up and overflowing much faster than a few sprinklers can deplete it. I'm sure the businesses where that was happening were wishing they could stop it too. It's costing them money.No I understand it doesn't matter, but what I'm saying is, if they're doing it now, there will be a point when our water levels are low and we'll have a storm roll through that will give some good rain and provide enough water where people won't have to water their yards for about a week, but won't fill up the lakes. They will still water anyways.

But hey, you got a good point with the money thing. I'm sure the city likes it lol, if they even notice ;P

No I understand it doesn't matter, but what I'm saying is, if they're doing it now, there will be a point when our water levels are low and we'll have a storm roll through that will give some good rain and provide enough water where people won't have to water their yards for about a week, but won't fill up the lakes. They will still water anyways.

But hey, you got a good point with the money thing. I'm sure the city likes it lol, if they even notice ;P
The city still has water use restrictions in place. As long as they are obeying the restrictions, I don't have a problem with it.

Seeing things get stretched out now. Southern fringe of the line over us is more so stay in place instead of going further south - a few boundaries coming out from them that could play into storms tomorrow down south. Northern edge is building back to the NNE. Also the cold front is lighting up now from Enid back to SE of Leedy.

Seeing things get stretched out now. Southern fringe of the line over us is more so stay in place instead of going further south - a few boundaries coming out from them that could play into storms tomorrow down south. Northern edge is building back to the NNE. Also the cold front is lighting up now from Enid back to SE of Leedy.

It's still just amazing how it just keeps rebuilding continuously over basically the same area for hours and hours.

Bunty, don't knock it. An inch of rain isn't something bad with June on the horizon. From the way it's looking on radar, you could still get more tonight.

Yeah, you're right. There's some sudden new builds directly approaching Stillwater. It's quite a volatile situation.

News 5 and 9 both said there could be severe weather again with the storm next week. I know this round we just got through didn't look to be as bad as it was until at least Wednesday. Is it possible we might have to do this again next week?

News 5 and 9 both said there could be severe weather again with the storm next week. I know this round we just got through didn't look to be as bad as it was until at least Wednesday. Is it possible we might have to do this again next week?

From what I have heard at this time it’s not expected to a high end threat…
But I suppose that could change.

Per CH 9…. last night’s tornadoes / storms left 5 dead, about 50 injured and over 103,000 without power.
Yep, that’s worse than the flooding.
On edit: 5 are reported to be in critical condition.

News 5 and 9 both said there could be severe weather again with the storm next week. I know this round we just got through didn't look to be as bad as it was until at least Wednesday. Is it possible we might have to do this again next week?

Go back and ready my earlier posts in this thread - I already addressed the severe risk coming up.

This flooding could possibly go down as the worst in OKC modern history. This will rival and probably pass the N OKC / Edmond event a few years ago in June.

My house flooded, about an inch of water, and a lot of my stuff in my carport washed down the street. Sucks but My dogs and I are safe and that's what counts.

I've just learned that a friend of mine may have been among those that died. How can I confirm this?

Rainfall totals from last night.

N OKC, ~7.5 inches

S OKC, ~7 inches

W OKC, ~5 inches

E OKC, ~7 inches

There are some embedded 8 inch amounts throughout much of the city - especially eastern sides.

OUN put out an update today on the May 19th-20th Tornadoes. Count is now up to 10 tornadoes in the Norman forecast area...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013


...LATEST ON TORNADO INFORMATION FOR MAY 19 AND MAY 20...


A NUMBER OF TORNADOES AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON MAY 19 AND 20. INFORMATION ON MOST OF THESE TORNADOES IS
STILL VERY PRELIMINARY.


...UPDATES...
1/ THE STEPHENS COUNTY TORNADO WAS DETERMINED TO BE TWO SEPARATE
TORNADOES. THE TIMES WERE ALSO CORRECTED FOR THE STEPHENS COUNTY
TORNADOES AND PRELIMINARY RATINGS WERE ASSIGNED.
2/ A TORNADO WAS ADDED NORTHEAST OF MEEKER FROM MAY 20.
3/ ADDED WIDTH TO LAKE THUNDERBIRD-SHAWNEE TORNADO


...MAY 19 EDMOND TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:22-4:30 PM CDT
LOCATION: NEAR 33RD STREET AND SOUTH BOULEVARD STREET
IN EDMOND TO NEAR HIGHWAY 66 AND POST ROAD.


...MAY 19 ARCADIA TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: SHORT
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NARROW
TIME: 4:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROX. 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF ARCADIA.


...MAY 19 LUTHER-CARNEY TORNADO
/OKLAHOMA.. LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF3
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:41 PM - 5:24 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUTHER TO CARNEY TO
2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRYON.


...MAY 19 LAKE THUNDERBIRD-SHAWNEE TORNADO
/CLEVELAND AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF4
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.2 MILES
TIME: 6:00 PM - 6:50 PM CDT
LOCATION: LAKE THUNDERBIRD /8 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN
NORMAN/ TO 6.5 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MCLOUD.


...MAY 19 WEST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/POTTAWATOMIE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF2
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
TIME: 6:59 PM - 7:12 PM CDT
LOCATION: 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PRAGUE TO
3 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PRAGUE.


...MAY 19 NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/LINCOLN AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS
TIME: 7:17 PM - 7:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TO
5.5 MILES WEST OF WELTY.


...MAY 20 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO
/GRADY..MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES/...


RATING: EF5
PATH LENGTH: 17 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.3 MILES
TIME: 2:45 PM - 3:35 PM CDT
LOCATION: 4.4 MILES WEST NEWCASTLE TO 4.8 MILES EAST
OF MOORE.


...MAY 20 SOUTH OF MARLOW TORNADO...


RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: 1 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 2:58 PM - 3:01 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MARLOW.


...MAY 20 WEST OF BRAY TORNADO...


RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 4 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 3:07 PM - 3:22 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MARLOW TO 4 MILES WEST OF BRAY.


...MAY 20 NORTHEAST OF MEEKER TORNADO...


RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: TO BE DETERMINED
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:40 PM - 4:42 PM CDT
LOCATION: 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEEKER.


OTHER TORNADO REPORTS ARE ALSO STILL BEING INVESTIGATED.

Rainfall totals from last night.

N OKC, ~7.5 inches

S OKC, ~7 inches

W OKC, ~5 inches

E OKC, ~7 inches

There are some embedded 8 inch amounts throughout much of the city - especially eastern sides.

I would believe it. The pictures from downtown are just insane.

My house flooded, about an inch of water, and a lot of my stuff in my carport washed down the street. Sucks but My dogs and I are safe and that's what counts.

I'm sorry to hear that :( But also glad to know that the important things are okay. We're trying to remember that here as we dry out.

Upside -- it is truly a beautiful day. Sucks that we had to have a night like last night to get a day like this in June, but glad to have it.

I've just learned that a friend of mine may have been among those that died. How can I confirm this?

I hope not... thoughts and prayers their way

US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma (https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Norman.gov?ref=stream&hc_location=stream)
Reviewing data this morning, it looks like our tornado warning for the El Reno tornado was issued 19 minutes before the tornado developed. We'll update that number later today as we continue to analyze the data.

Hope everyone is safe! Im on vacation in Philadelphia and have been watching everything from afar. Im a bit nervous about the serious flooding I saw in downtown. Does anyone know how the midtown area (11th and Walker) faired?

I'm sorry to hear that :( But also glad to know that the important things are okay. We're trying to remember that here as we dry out.

Upside -- it is truly a beautiful day. Sucks that we had to have a night like last night to get a day like this in June, but glad to have it.

we got very little dampness in the rooms that usually get water in them. we got almost 5 inches in my rain gauge in northwest edmond, and i think what saved us from damage was that the rain came in waves, and wasn't a relentless onslaught of heavy rain.

so no cleaning up for us luckily, but sorry for those of you who do have to.

Hope everyone is safe! Im on vacation in Philadelphia and have been watching everything from afar. Im a bit nervous about the serious flooding I saw in downtown. Does anyone know how the midtown area (11th and Walker) faired?

Isn't that area kind of sloped? I bet you're fine.

Go back and ready my earlier posts in this thread - I already addressed the severe risk coming up.

It looks like Tuesday maybe the biggest severe weather threat day?

Does that sound right to you?

From OUN: Damage survey team has confirmed an EF0 tornado near SE 50th and S Bryant in S OKC. More details to come!

...UPDATES...
1/ OKLAHOMA CITY EF0 TORNADO ADDED.


...MAY 31 OKLAHOMA CITY TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: 0.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
TIME: TO BE DETERMINED.
LOCATION: CREEKWOOD TERRACE TO KEITH DRIVE
/EAST OF VALLEY BROOK/.

ou48A, You do know that flash flooding has little to do with your elevation and far, far more to do with the built environment? Impermeable surfaces dominate, and continue to dominate our cities unfortunately which means yeah, even houses that are not in any flood plain, can easily flood. 10" of rain in any populated area is going to create flash flooding well outside the scope of any documented flood plain. "biblical" in your words I guess, but not really.

Exactly. Great post Sid. Where I'm at I've never had to deal with significant flooding of the traditional sort. Now what I have had to deal with is the way they have our street set up, the water flow - if heavy enough - will actually hit the curb of my driveway just right and funnel right into my garage and front yard. That's not something you can really anticipate until the water starts rushing down the street.

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/601290_575330252487906_287886136_n.jpg

If anyone received damage last night, please be sure you submit a report so the investigation can be thorough by the NWS...

Submit a Storm Report (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=oun)

Another Update...

Survey teams have found EF3 damage in several spots west of Highway 81, and southwest of El Reno. They will continue to investigate other areas along the path through the afternoon!

http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/6/1/2f8a5e14-f559-41d0-81b9-71110f6b5151.jpg

I like this snippet from KFOR

With the near-constant severe weather over the last 12 days, we are in need of a break, Oklahoma. The good news: it appears we are going to get it. Although we may have bouts of storms next week, signals don’t indicate severe thunderstorms or potential tornadic activity

ou48A, You do know that flash flooding has little to do with your elevation and far, far more to do with the built environment? Impermeable surfaces dominate, and continue to dominate our cities unfortunately which means yeah, even houses that are not in any flood plain, can easily flood. 10" of rain in any populated area is going to create flash flooding well outside the scope of any documented flood plain. "biblical" in your words I guess, but not really.

Yes I’m well aware of those facts and believe I have accounted for them. My yard slopes away from house at an angel that could easily accommodate a 20+ inch rain over several hours.
Most of the homes in my neighborhood have been built well above street level but even here I’m higher than most other homes in my area. There is a very limited run off area that goes past my house in the street. I lived on high ground as a kid but I saw way too many others living in flood prone areas. When it comes to flooding I did my best to learn from the mistakes of others and it really is something you can anticipate if you learn about flooding.

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/601290_575330252487906_287886136_n.jpg

What do the green circles indicate? My parents' house were waaaay too close.

What do the green circles indicate? My parents' house were waaaay too close.

Not sure...maybe wind damage?

Hi, everyone. I never got back onto Venture's chatroom last night, but we were in the cellar at my mom's house for over two hours with sirens blaring and funnels sighted all around her home. Minimal fence damage at her house (a couple of panels), but I did sustain significant damage to my wonderful maple tree in my front yard. The tree was blown by what must have been *incredible* straight-line north winds. The leaves on the tree's surviving limbs are bent to the south. We all just spent the better part of a couple of hours cleaning away the dead limbs.

We were very fortunate. Don't know enough about trees to guess whether it can survive the damage, but if our worst loss is that tree, we're miles ahead of folks who lost everything.

Hope everyone is well.

Good to hear you guys are safe Dave. Sorry to hear about the maple, at least it wasn't more like you said.

I appreciate those of you who understand that flash flooding can happen anywhere in a storm like last night's. ou48A, do you even understand sympathy? Or empathy? Enjoy your house on a hill. We aren't all as smart as you, I guess. Seeing as we live in a mostly flat city with a lot of creeks, rivers, and lakes.

Also, this is the very first home I've ever owned. I think I'm afforded a couple of mistakes. Number one being the fact that we bought it, but yeah, we have done everything to control flooding but when you get nearly 8" in a matter of a few hours, there isn't much you can do. This is still my home. It's just a little wetter than normal, that's all.

I'm sorry to hear that :( But also glad to know that the important things are okay. We're trying to remember that here as we dry out.

Upside -- it is truly a beautiful day. Sucks that we had to have a night like last night to get a day like this in June, but glad to have it.

I've been meaning to clean the carport but now it's all clean lol

My front yard last night

3773

US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma
29 minutes ago
NEW: EF0 tornado track identified in Moore, just west of I-35, and just north of Moore Medical Center. This minor damage occurred just outside the damage path of the May 20th tornado!

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 13m
SURVEY UPDATE: Crews are still out. Still nothing higher than EF3 on the El Reno tornado. Still looking.

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 12m
SURVEY UPDATE: not complete, but appears tornado began near SW 15th and Morgan Road and moved SE. Survey ongoing.



NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 1m
Today's surveys are more complicated than last week's. We can confirm at least five tornadoes, and there will probably be more.

NEW: SW OKC Tornado. EF1. 10.4 mile path from SW 15th and Morgan Rd across Will Rogers Airport to near I240 and Western

Latest Update...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013


...UPDATE ON MAY 31 SEVERE WEATHER...


A LARGE...SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
FRIDAY... MAY 31. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN DISPATCHED
THREE DAMAGE SURVEY CREWS TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA
TO DETERMINE THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THESE STORMS. REPORTS FROM
THESE TEAMS FOLLOW.


...UPDATES...
1/ ADDED SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CITY EF0 TORNADO.
2/ ADDED MOORE EF0 TORNADO.
3/ ADDED SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY EF1 TORNADO AND MOORE TORNADO TIME.


...MAY 31 SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CITY TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: 0.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS
TIME: 7:33 PM TO 7:40 PM
LOCATION: CREEKWOOD TERRACE TO KEITH DRIVE
/EAST OF VALLEY BROOK/.


...MAY 31 MOORE TORNADO /CLEVELAND COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: 0.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
TIME: 7:50 PM TO 7:55 PM
LOCATION: NW 5TH STREET TO W MAIN STREET.


...MAY 31 SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY TORNADO /CANADIAN AND
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 10.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.4 MILES
TIME: 6:51 PM TO 7:23 PM
LOCATION: FAIFAX LANE /NORTHWEST OF SW 15TH AND
MORGAN ROAD INTERSECTION/ TO INTERSECTION
OF SW 56TH AND BLACKWELDER AVE.

Two more...one we already know about...

...MAY 31 LIGHTNING CREEK PARK EF1 TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 0.4 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 250 YARDS
TIME: 6:25 PM TO 6:30 PM
LOCATION: LIGHTNING CREEK PARK /STRAKA TERRACE AND
WESTERN AVE/.




...MAY 31 EL RENO EF3 TORNADO /CANADIAN COUNTY/...
RATING: EF3
PATH LENGTH: TO BE DETERMINED
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: TO BE DETERMINED
LOCATION: SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO.

My backyard maple is no longer the tallest around. OG&E did a good job of getting power back on in Mustang. Missing some shingles.