http://i.imgur.com/3E2Yv5m.gif




If you know of anyone living in or traveling to the above areas let them know they should keep an eye on the weather.

If you know of anyone living in or traveling to the above areas let them know they should keep an eye on the weather.

Going to be pretty bumpy up there for them. The biggest problem though is they lack a lot of quality wx coverage in those areas so most are just hearing "could have a heavy t-storm later with a lot of rain." We are spoiled.

If anyone has family/friends up north, please get a hold of them. Damaging Derecho and tornado threat is rising rapidly. Upgrade to the first High Risk for the year.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1040.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH


CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE


VALID 121526Z - 121630Z


SUMMARY...THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EXTREME
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. IN ADDITION...TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL
BE INCREASED TO 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.


DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST-MOVING AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.


DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

Will be interesting to see how the development goes up there.

Now for OK weather.

Trends in models continue to hint at pattern change early next week giving us rain/storm chances and subsequently cooler temperatures (back to 80s). Also I noticed on the long range GFS, it wants to shoot a tropical system into TX in a couple weeks.

Will be interesting to see how the development goes up there.

Now for OK weather.

Trends in models continue to hint at pattern change early next week giving us rain/storm chances and subsequently cooler temperatures (back to 80s). Also I noticed on the long range GFS, it wants to shoot a tropical system into TX in a couple weeks.

Thats great news because in all honestly im already tired of the hot temps and i will take any and all moisture i can get as i just put down 900 square ft of sod.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

If anyone has family/friends up north, please get a hold of them.


+1

Trends in models continue to hint at pattern change early next week giving us rain/storm chances and subsequently cooler temperatures (back to 80s). Also I noticed on the long range GFS, it wants to shoot a tropical system into TX in a couple weeks.

Looks like my plan to alter the weather is working. I was going to wait to put the new AC compressor in my truck but I thought maybe if I went ahead and had it fixed we might not break 100 this year..... If anyone would like to donate towards the costs I incurred to keep the state cool. I'd appreciate it!;)

Going to be pretty bumpy up there for them. The biggest problem though is they lack a lot of quality wx coverage in those areas so most are just hearing "could have a heavy t-storm later with a lot of rain." We are spoiled.

This is very true. One of my buddies runs social media for the ABC affiliate in Cleveland and they literally ran a "might want to grab the umbrella tonight" feature lol, which most people will ignore because it already rains every other day up here.

I suggested he might want to do some blog pieces about what a derecho storm is, what a NWS high risk means, how they use advance and highly precise modeling to get to that, etc...

This is very true. One of my buddies runs social media for the ABC affiliate in Cleveland and they literally ran a "might want to grab the umbrella tonight" feature lol, which most people will ignore because it already rains every other day up here.

I suggested he might want to do some blog pieces about what a derecho storm is, what a NWS high risk means, how they use advance and highly precise modeling to get to that, etc...

Indeed. It might weaken a bit or actually dive south of you in Cleveland...at least the strong part of the derecho. Looks like Chicago - South Bend - Toledo are going to get nailed by the apex of of it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0298_radar.gif





If you know anyone up in this area let them know they should pay close attention as a PDS Tornado watch has been issued.

"...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION..."

PDS Severe is coming out for the area east of that watch.

I did bring the chat room up for those up there and also for us down here who just missed it. :)

Updated tornado list from the May 31st event...provided by NWS OUN

LocationPreliminary RatingBegin TimeEnd TimePath LengthMaximum WidthOmega

(1 mi northeast to 2 mi northeast of Omega; 14 mi west of Kingfisher)
EF-05:35 PM CDT5:37 PM CDT1 mile50 yardsCalumet

(6.5 mi south-southwest of Calumet)
EF-05:55 PM CDT5:56 PM CDT0.3 milesto be determined
El Reno
(8.5 mi west-southwest to 5.5 south to 4 east-southeast of El Reno)
EF-56:03 PM CDT6:43 PM CDT16.22.6 milesLightning Creek Park

(Lightning Creek Park to Straka Terrace and Western Avenue)
EF-16:25 PM CDT
6:28 PM CDT
0.4 miles250 yardsSoutheast of El Reno

(near NW 10th and Banner Road to near SW 15th and Richland Road)
EF-26:29 PM CDT6:41 PM CDT5 milesto be determinedSouthwest Oklahoma City/Will Rogers World Airport

(Fairfax Lane, northwest of SW 15th & Morgan Road Intersection to Intersection of SW 56th and Blackwelder Ave.)
EF-1
6:51 PM CDT
7:23 PM CDT
10.4miles
1.4 miles
Southeast Oklahoma City(Creekwood Terrace to Keith Dr. near SE 54th St., east of Valley Brook)
EF-0 7:33 PM CDT7:40 PMCDT
0.4 miles200 yards
Moore
(near NW 5th St. and Dillon to W Main St. and Classen)EF-07:50 PM CDT
7:55 PM CDT0.5 miles
500 yards

Will be interesting to see how the development goes up there.

Now for OK weather.

Trends in models continue to hint at pattern change early next week giving us rain/storm chances and subsequently cooler temperatures (back to 80s). Also I noticed on the long range GFS, it wants to shoot a tropical system into TX in a couple weeks.

An isolated severe thunderstorm, or two, had already developed this morning, Saturday, in the central part of the state. No watch out now, but maybe it will be judged necessary to issue one later this afternoon.

Storm activity must have caught TV weathermen off work for Saturday at channel 4, 5, and 25. No warnings cluttering their screens. I'm sure golf fans watching channel 4 don't mind. At least channel 9 is running storm warnings.

Slight Risk today...classic NW flow pattern with complex from KS/NW OK moving SE over later today/tonight. Some winds near 70 and small to marginally severe hail.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013


VALID 161630Z - 171200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NEB TO OK
AND THE TX PANHANDLE...


...NEB TO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PRIMARY JET IS LOCATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WWD TO NEB. S OF THE MAIN JET...LOW-AMPLITUDE
WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND THEN ESEWD TOWARD THE MS/OH VALLEYS. ONE SUCH WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING FROM ERN WY TO SW SD/NW NEB AS OF MID
MORNING...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IN A
WEAK WAA REGIME. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS INTO THE 75-80 F
RANGE TO THE S-SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
BE LARGELY REMOVED AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ROOTED AT THE
SURFACE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INITIALLY GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG.


UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORM INTERACTIONS LEAD TO COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT IN NEB. ADDITIONALLY...A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND
WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER NW CO COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO RELATIVELY
EARLY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE CO...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE
NEB CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS SW NEB/NW
KS/EXTREME NE CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK
WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS WRN KS TOWARD NW OK OVERNIGHT.


FARTHER S INTO OK AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF
STORMS COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AND IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK
MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING EWD FROM EXTREME NE NM/SE CO. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 35 KT.


...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SPEED MAX IS MOVING EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE
RATES...ALONG WITH RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE....WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS GREATER...FROM
KY TO VA...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE SRN FRONT OF THE STRONGER
MIDLEVEL FLOW.


..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/16/2013

Will be interesting to see how the development goes up there.

Now for OK weather.

Trends in models continue to hint at pattern change early next week giving us rain/storm chances and subsequently cooler temperatures (back to 80s). Also I noticed on the long range GFS, it wants to shoot a tropical system into TX in a couple weeks.

looks like the jeep top is going back on

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES OKC:

Updated: Sun Jun-16-13 03:20pm CDT
Effective: Sun Jun-16-13 03:20pm CDT
Expires: Sun Jun-16-13 10:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met

Areas affected: Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cherokee; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Craig; Creek; Custer; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Haskell; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Latimer; Le Flore; Lincoln; Logan; Mayes; McClain; McIntosh; Murray; Muskogee; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Okmulgee; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pittsburg; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Rogers; Seminole; Sequoyah; Stephens; Tillman; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington; Wa****a

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 318 is in effect until 1000 pm cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are beckham blaine caddo canadian carter cherokee cleveland coal comanche cotton craig creek custer garvin grady greer harmon haskell hughes jackson jefferson kingfisher kiowa latimer le flore lincoln logan mayes mcclain mcintosh murray muskogee noble nowata okfuskee oklahoma okmulgee osage pawnee payne pittsburg pontotoc pottawatomie rogers roger mills seminole sequoyah stephens tillman tulsa wagoner washington wa****a

W-a-s-h-i-t-a County :cool:

Pretty good storms popping up. Great rains.

was hoping to get in a redhawks game tonight, but i'll take the rains.

Looks like OKC will remain high and dry tonight.

Looks like OKC will remain high and dry tonight.

I don't think so. Severe storms in northwestern Oklahoma and Kansas have been maintaining their strength and moving ESE, and so the severe thunderstorm watch has been extended longer to 2am:

Updated: Sun Jun-16-13 11:43pm CDT
Effective: Sun Jun-16-13 11:43pm CDT
Expires: Mon Jun-17-13 02:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Blaine; Canadian; Custer; Kingfisher; Lincoln; Logan; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Roger Mills

Message summary: The national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm watch 319 to include the following areas until 2 am cdt monday in oklahoma this watch includes 10 counties in central oklahoma canadian kingfisher lincoln logan oklahoma payne in northern oklahoma noble in northwest oklahoma blaine in western oklahoma custer roger mills this includes the cities of...chandler...cheyenne...clinton...
El reno...guthrie...kingfisher...mustang...oklahoma city...
Perry...stillwater...watonga...weatherford and yukon.

It's been extended yet again until 7am:

Updated: Mon Jun-17-13 01:05am CDT
Effective: Mon Jun-17-13 01:05am CDT
Expires: Mon Jun-17-13 07:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Comanche; Cotton; Creek; Custer; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; McClain; Murray; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Tulsa; Washington; Wa-s-h-i-t-a

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 320 is in effect until 700 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are beckham blaine caddo canadian carter cleveland comanche cotton creek custer garfield garvin grady greer harmon hughes jackson jefferson kay kingfisher kiowa lincoln logan love mcclain murray noble nowata okfuskee oklahoma osage pawnee payne pontotoc pottawatomie seminole stephens tillman tulsa washington wa-s-h-i-t-a

This thing that is approaching us, can this turn into a derecho or is a derecho something completely different?

This thing that is approaching us, can this turn into a derecho or is a derecho something completely different?

What happened last night didn't end up developing into a derecho, because the winds didn't blow at a high enough speed. I suspect that in most places the wind stayed under 58mph, one of the defined requirements of a derecho by the NWS. The line sure had the characteristic bow, though.

Nice lines of storms last night. OKC metro got around an inch of rain overall. Some places that got hit with the pop-up showers and storms throughout the day saw a little more.

Overall a solid rain for the state.

This meso map shows every county in Oklahoma got some rain since yesterday and this morning. I bet that rarely happens. A lot of 1"+ amounts are well scattered about. Stillwater would have gotten a lot more than .76" had the severe thunderstorm in Noble County not diminish to a .03" shower when it arrived.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/rain6172013.png

TX and OK pandhandles getting much needed rain this morning. Flood warnings in TX.

Looks like NW and W OK getting some nice drinkage, as well.

Well after today looks like the ring of fire reestablishes itself over OK and we start touching near 100F next week.

Well after today looks like the ring of fire reestablishes itself over OK and we start touching near 100F next week.

Well thanks for the great news.....I guess.

So if we are getting up into the 100s next week and its still June, does this mean we could see another summer of 110s in July and August?

So if we are getting up into the 100s next week and its still June, does this mean we could see another summer of 110s in July and August?

Not necessarily. But you have to remember that dry heat builds off itself. The drier and hotter it is for lengthy period of times, means the hotter and drier it is likely to become. Dry air heats up easier than humid/moist air. And air is drier when the ground is drier.

This is why breaking out of a drought is so hard, because you need it to rain frequently, when the actual conditions warrant the opposite. Here in OKC we have become pretty lucky this Spring and broken out of the short-term drought. But it will return easily if we see no rain breaking up this stretch of dry hot air. Western OK is pretty much in the same boat as everyone was last summer, It is a very localized area to the east and south of OKC that is out of the short-term drought (for now).

Weatherman on the TV this morning said that we should expect high temperatures Friday, Saturday, Sunday ... all the way through to September. LOL

So if we are getting up into the 100s next week and its still June, does this mean we could see another summer of 110s in July and August?

You've got to be an absolute delight to be around at parties. Every single post of yours in these weather threads are filled with a worst case scenario or doom and gloom. Calm. Down.

You've got to be an absolute delight to be around at parties. Every single post of yours in these weather threads are filled with a worst case scenario or doom and gloom. Calm. Down.

Since he's not the focus of this thread, try to abstain from addressing him rather than addressing the content of his post(s). His question is harmless.

You've got to be an absolute delight to be around at parties. Every single post of yours in these weather threads are filled with a worst case scenario or doom and gloom. Calm. Down.Dude he was just asking a question, and I'm glad he asked it. I probably would've asked it as well.

You've got to be an absolute delight to be around at parties. Every single post of yours in these weather threads are filled with a worst case scenario or doom and gloom. Calm. Down.

What was so doom and gloom about it? Its was a fair question. Maybe your thinking 110 degrees in July or August is doom and gloom?

I personally call it summer and is within the average range of summer temperatures.

110 degrees in June or September on the other hand.......lol

If its going to be 110 next month, perhaps we should all...just get out of the way. I think I-44 is clear.

You've got to be an absolute delight to be around at parties. Every single post of yours in these weather threads are filled with a worst case scenario or doom and gloom. Calm. Down.

110s isn't doom and gloom as long as it doesn't persist. It's an above average summer, but not doom and gloom. I personally don't mind the heat.

Double post - delete this!

If its going to be 110 next month, perhaps we should all...just get out of the way. I think I-44 is clear.
[/Thread]..

100 degree temps in July? What a shocker!

I am always stunned that people act so surprised and caught off-guard in this state when it gets hot in the summer.

And, just because we might have a heat wave in June, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be crazy hot in July. Weather is variable.

So if we are getting up into the 100s next week and its still June, does this mean we could see another summer of 110s in July and August?

110 in July and 120 in August as the Sun grows larger for the summer and then it shrinks in the winter.

You guys have probably already seen bulletins. But the moon will appear very large late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be amplified if you can see it early while it is near the horizon. It will be closest towards morning Sunday. It looks like OK should have relatively clear skies for this to view.

100 degree temps in July? What a shocker!

I am always stunned that people act so surprised and caught off-guard in this state when it gets hot in the summer.

And, just because we might have a heat wave in June, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be crazy hot in July. Weather is variable.

It won't quite be the 4th of July, unless it's at least a 100 out.

While with little room to spare, both Tulsa and Stillwater are finally out of any drought category and into the white:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

You guys have probably already seen bulletins. But the moon will appear very large late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be amplified if you can see it early while it is near the horizon. It will be closest towards morning Sunday. It looks like OK should have relatively clear skies for this to view.

Awesome. Need to get the ol' camera ready for it :)

While with little room to spare, both Tulsa and Stillwater are finally out of any drought category and into the white:


We're doing better than South Fork:

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/p480x480/1010751_10151634702351077_1462781873_n.jpg

Damn that sucks. Only because I've been through that area many a times...either on my way to Durango or Wolf Creek Ski Area or driving from Durango, going back to the Alamosa area. I hope they can contain it :-(

110 in July and 120 in August as the Sun grows larger for the summer and then it shrinks in the winter.

From what I have read it appears that Obama has spent billions of our tax dollars on growing the sun so welfare recipients can get tans at home

Northwest flow looks to return for the last few days of the month until probably July 4th - maybe not that long. Typical summer is here and continuing.

Northwest flow looks to return for the last few days of the month until probably July 4th - maybe not that long. Typical summer is here and continuing.

Northwest flow.... is that Kim K's new baby lol

We're doing better than South Fork:

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/p480x480/1010751_10151634702351077_1462781873_n.jpg

Beautiful and ominous.

So if we are getting up into the 100s next week and its still June, does this mean we could see another summer of 110s in July and August?

Possibly. I think I'll try and work my schedule to be chock full of naps from 11:48 through 6:48 on as many days as possible over the next few months. Maybe if I sleep through most of it I will notice it less. Almost makes me wish we had a night court option. Saw a chap the other day that even reminded me of Bull.

Looks like after touching 100F tomorrow and maybe Friday, the northwest flow grazes OK again as early as Sunday.

Look for temps to be knocked down back into the 80s and on/off chances of storm waves.


This is the kind of moisture consistency needed to keep things green.

I'm going from the frying pan to the fire, moving to Texas next month.

Trivia time, while the weather is boring, though it will be interesting to see if the hi really gets up to over a 100 tomorrow, 6/26: Since 1970 how many years did the OKC airport sensor not record at least 100 degrees once in that calendar year? The answer is 10. Source: Aaron Tuttle, meteorologist.

SLIGHT risk of severe weather from N OKC metro and basically the northern half of the state.

Looks like a complex will develop in southern KS this evening and sag south while moving to the east. May graze the metro or back build tonight.


Relief from temperatures still looks like Sunday. Next week looks awesome with temperatures in the 80s with consistent chances of storms moving in later in the week. This could carry over into Independence Day weekend activities.

SLIGHT risk of severe weather from N OKC metro and basically the northern half of the state.

Looks like a complex will develop in southern KS this evening and sag south while moving to the east. May graze the metro or back build tonight.


Relief from temperatures still looks like Sunday. Next week looks awesome with temperatures in the 80s with consistent chances of storms moving in later in the week. This could carry over into Independence Day weekend activities.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Don't wash out my fireworks!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

Getting Rain Tuesday or Wednesday would be good, give the grass and everything a good wetdown right before the 4th. SO hopefully help cut down on any foreworks related fires. How is it looking weatherwise for the 4th 5th and 6th? as far as rain chances go ? will it be late night events hopefully if the rain lasts into those days ?