View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2013
ultimatesooner 06-05-2013, 11:24 AM No, I didn't realize that. I just saw slab after slab where homes used to rest. Didn't see any closets or bath tubs standing. This was in the area around Plaza Towers.
helped a friend clean who's house was a block or so west of plaza towers, their house and at least 3 houses next to them still had the bathtubs in tact with a wall or two around them and the guy across the street from them survived w/ his two young children in a bathtub
venture 06-05-2013, 11:51 AM Slight risk has been pushed back north some to account for the clearing and quick heating taking place.
New Slight risk is south of a line from Sayre to Cordell to Norman to McAlester.
venture 06-05-2013, 12:37 PM Since we aren't really in the chat room today, even though it is open...but its pretty dead out there...I figured I'll bring "Paint Time!" here. :)
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jun13/05-1.png
Vis Sat with the front overlayed. Main thing I wanted to point out is a lot of heating ahead of the front still. The slight risk is in the area south of the Yellow line. I highlighted two areas in Red. These are areas that HRRR has been showing storm developing for later this afternoon...so just keep that in mind.
warreng88 06-05-2013, 12:51 PM I was in Florida last week visiting family and everyone asked how far we were from the Moore tornado and I told them about 10-12 miles. Several people knew about the 1999 tornado, but few knew about the 2003 and 2010 tornados since they weren't as severe. A few of them asked why Moore was so susceptible to tornados and I didn't have a great answer to that. Venture, Anonymous and others, care to take a stab that?
Charlie40 06-05-2013, 01:06 PM Since we aren't really in the chat room today, even though it is open...but its pretty dead out there...I figured I'll bring "Paint Time!" here. :)
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jun13/05-1.png
Vis Sat with the front overlayed. Main thing I wanted to point out is a lot of heating ahead of the front still. The slight risk is in the area south of the Yellow line. I highlighted two areas in Red. These are areas that HRRR has been showing storm developing for later this afternoon...so just keep that in mind.
Venture, can you please post the HRRR model when it becomes available? The NWS has dropped OKC/Moore down to 30% for this afternoon/tonight so I was hoping it would go back up in later forcasts.
venture 06-05-2013, 01:17 PM Venture, can you please post the HRRR model when it becomes available? The NWS has dropped OKC/Moore down to 30% for this afternoon/tonight so I was hoping it would go back up in later forcasts.
This is the 15Z, 16Z is still processing...
Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013060515&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013060515/t5/totp_t5sfc_f15.png
venture 06-05-2013, 01:31 PM I was in Florida last week visiting family and everyone asked how far we were from the Moore tornado and I told them about 10-12 miles. Several people knew about the 1999 tornado, but few knew about the 2003 and 2010 tornados since they weren't as severe. A few of them asked why Moore was so susceptible to tornados and I didn't have a great answer to that. Venture, Anonymous and others, care to take a stab that?
I think it just comes down to geography and how things normally setup.
1) Oklahoma is the heart of Tornado Alley (yes there are other alleys in the country).
2) It is pretty typical we have a dryline in Western OK and Gulf moisture from the Southeast.
Now the "heart" of the Tornado Alley in Oklahoma is going to be Caddo into Oklahoma counties.
We could get really micro with it, but in reality it is just going to be a lot of guessing and assumptions to come to any conclusion. People could be saying the same about El Reno now with two EF5s near the city in the last 3 years. It is just the nature of the area we live in. I put the numbers together from NWS Norman's 1950-2011 totals and added in 2012 and so far for 2013 (excluding May 31st), here is how the top 15 breaks down...counties in the Metro are in bold.
County1950- 201120122013TotalAvg Per YearCaddo1063
1091.7Oklahoma101
21031.6Kay942
961.5Osage8921921.5Canadian883
911.4Lincoln76
4801.3Kiowa734
771.2Tulsa72
3751.2Pittsburg74
741.2Ellis711
721.1Cleveland6712701.1Garfield70
701.1Grant655
701.1Kingfisher69
691.1Grady66
2681.1
pw405 06-05-2013, 02:04 PM Since we aren't really in the chat room today, even though it is open...but its pretty dead out there...I figured I'll bring "Paint Time!" here. :)
Venture, we use this program at work for sharing screen captures of high-resolution data plots and sending easily via email, etc. I think you'd find it useful given how often you are sharing screens and need the ability to draw on them, etc. You can check out a 30 day free trial, but the full program is only $50. Snagit!!
Download Snagit Free Trial (http://www.techsmith.com/download/snagit/)
Of Sound Mind 06-05-2013, 02:37 PM Venture, can you please post the HRRR model when it becomes available? The NWS has dropped OKC/Moore down to 30% for this afternoon/tonight so I was hoping it would go back up in later forcasts.
Why?
Anonymous. 06-05-2013, 02:47 PM Per venture's table above, you also have to keep in mind the physical shape of each county. Caddo county is somewhat slender and tall, since most storms apprach in a west-to-east fashion, it is obvious that this area will have a higher chance of tornados passing through it.
And like he said, it is common for supercells to fire in Western OK, and more likely towards Southwestern OK and move East or Northeast. This puts the metro in prime position.
Regardless, tornadoes/storms do not care what is in front of them. If Canadian and Oklahoma counties were mostly field instead of developed population - this conversation would never happen - yet the tornados would have hit these same areas at the same times.
Charlie40 06-05-2013, 03:32 PM Why?
Why what??
BlackmoreRulz 06-05-2013, 05:10 PM When I was a kid, Union City was known as the heart of Tornado Alley...I guess Moore has taken over that title.
kelroy55 06-05-2013, 06:10 PM Why what??
Why do you hope it goes back up? "The NWS has dropped OKC/Moore down to 30% for this afternoon/tonight so I was hoping it would go back up in later forcasts."
kelroy55 06-05-2013, 06:13 PM There is no such thing as averages! It is human-based global warming! Buy these products and support these politicians to help!
So help me if you derail this thread with that. Maybe people will just laugh and let it go. LOL
It's the train horns that are the fault.
PennyQuilts 06-05-2013, 06:48 PM Early last week, we contracted for a new roof based on damage from a previous storm. Things had been slow and we were up next. Then comes Friday (May 31). Now, our roofer has 75 roofs to replace but we are still first in line. They delivered the shingles and turbines, today. They also repaired the places in the roof damaged by the May 31 storm to hold us over until we get a couple of consecutive dry days.
Sure glad we have a good relationship with our roofer. Also glad we hadn't already fixed the roof because this last storm ripped off a lot of the roof ridge and shingles. I'm amazed at how widespread the damage was.
How many people died in floods vs. dying from the actual tornado/debris? Did anyone die in their home?
venture 06-05-2013, 06:51 PM Early last week, we contracted for a new roof based on damage from a previous storm. Things had been slow and we were up next. Then comes Friday (May 31). Now, our roofer has 75 roofs to replace but we are still first in line. They delivered the shingles and turbines, today. They also repaired the places in the roof damaged by the May 31 storm to hold us over until we get a couple of consecutive dry days.
Sure glad we have a good relationship with our roofer. Also glad we hadn't already fixed the roof because this last storm ripped off a lot of the roof ridge and shingles. I'm amazed at how widespread the damage was.
How many people died in floods vs. dying from the actual tornado/debris? Did anyone die in their home?
From what it sounds like...maybe 8 or 9 in the tornado and 11-12+ in the flooding. The tornado deaths might even be lower than that actually...could only be around 5.
Easy180 06-05-2013, 09:05 PM Watching the Fox newscast and it appears the heavy rains will head south of the metro overnight
Golf clap
ljbab728 06-05-2013, 10:49 PM From what it sounds like...maybe 8 or 9 in the tornado and 11-12+ in the flooding. The tornado deaths might even be lower than that actually...could only be around 5.
And none died in their homes that I'm aware of.
kelroy55 06-06-2013, 08:07 AM Watching the Fox newscast and it appears the heavy rains will head south of the metro overnight
Golf clap
I hope it dries up for a while, everything in my bedroom is on the patio so I can clean all the flood mess.
ou48A 06-06-2013, 10:53 AM Good news for some
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png
Bunty 06-06-2013, 11:11 AM Yeah, as the drought monitor indicates, it's still abnormally dry in Stillwater after all these rains. Boomer Lake still hasn't gone over the spillway as pictured below. Some water is seeping through it, though:
http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/boomerspillwaydry.jpg
venture 06-06-2013, 01:37 PM El Reno tornado's EF5 rating needs closer look, NWS official says | Tulsa World (http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/El_Reno_tornados_EF5_rating_needs_closer_look_NWS_ official/20130606_777_0_ANatio823340)
Main point of the article is that they are going to continue to look at the El Reno tornado rating. There has yet to be any ground damage verification to support the EF5 rating. Greg Carbin in the article is a meteorologist with SPC in Norman.
I would not be shocked if this one gets knocked back down.
ou48A 06-06-2013, 02:56 PM http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/6/6/3710aa65-0f50-4103-bc0a-68284a2beb35.png
NEW! This Sat (6/8) @MidlandUSA (http://twitter.com/MidlandUSA) is hosting a NOAA Weather Radio Day in Moore, 9am-2pm, SW 19th #Walmart (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Walmart&src=hash) #okwx (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash) http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMGgMkmCcAAlkYY.png (http://t.co/m0HrJuYrn8)
Plutonic Panda 06-06-2013, 02:57 PM El Reno tornado's EF5 rating needs closer look, NWS official says | Tulsa World (http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/El_Reno_tornados_EF5_rating_needs_closer_look_NWS_ official/20130606_777_0_ANatio823340)
Main point of the article is that they are going to continue to look at the El Reno tornado rating. There has yet to be any ground damage verification to support the EF5 rating. Greg Carbin in the article is a meteorologist with SPC in Norman.
I would not be shocked if this one gets knocked back down.News9 has the temps going up into the mid 90s next week. Are we going to be in the 100s shortly after?
NikonNurse 06-06-2013, 04:18 PM I'll dispute your claim that an F5 isn't survivable later perhaps but you've actually said something that is important to say. F5 tornadoes aren't usually F5 for very long. In fact, they appear to be everything but an F5 for most of the time. So again, in the vast majority of the cases you'll be safe in an interior room.
I'm not suggesting don't go underground if you can. I want every home in Oklahoma to have an underground shelter. But if you don't have such a shelter, the very best place you can be is in your bathroom, in the tub. Wrap yourself up with blankets like a corndog if you can and throw something big on top of you. A mattress is usually what people say but that can be hard for some people to manage. Just about anything that will span the width of the tub will be better than nothing.
Now the question, how do you do that all wrapped up like a corndog. :)
In all seriousness, I don't think we disagree much. I'm probably more worried that people get the wrong impression when they hear all the apocalyptic coverage and make panicked decisions. If people just get it in their minds how they are going to use their home to shelter in place instead of if, I think we'd have fewer people rushing out of their homes.
I can't do it now but I've seen evidence of people surviving F5 direct hits. I'll just have to go digging for it later...if I've got the energy. :)
I hate to be a buzzkill here but I was a triage nurse at a local ER when 99 tornado went through. A man doing just what you described ended up dying. A projectile penetrated the mattress and entered his midsection, mattress innards and all. Since that night, Im underground or out of the way completely....
NikonNurse 06-06-2013, 04:31 PM helped a friend clean who's house was a block or so west of plaza towers, their house and at least 3 houses next to them still had the bathtubs in tact with a wall or two around them and the guy across the street from them survived w/ his two young children in a bathtub
We were probably in the same section. I was at a house across the street from a mauled Tundra. I dont know how many houses were in that area from school to the main drag but I counted 5 that had a mid section left( and they stuck out like sore thumbs)....and that was all..the biggest about 5x10. Some were bathtubs, a couple closets and a couple that were obviously the kitchen's pantry....but nothing else....everything else leveled to foundation....everything...
ou48A 06-06-2013, 05:00 PM I hate to be a buzzkill here but I was a triage nurse at a local ER when 99 tornado went through. A man doing just what you described ended up dying. A projectile penetrated the mattress and entered his midsection, mattress innards and all. Since that night, Im underground or out of the way completely....
You’re very smart.
Something that you may know more about that I think goes way under reported is injuries that people live with that are sometimes very costly and painful for life.
If you don’t have a safe room / underground shelter and have plenty of time it’s always better if you can get out of the way….because surviving doesn’t automatically always mean getting on with your life as fully capable as you once were.
Bunty 06-06-2013, 06:57 PM http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/6/6/3710aa65-0f50-4103-bc0a-68284a2beb35.png
NEW! This Sat (6/8) @MidlandUSA (http://twitter.com/MidlandUSA) is hosting a NOAA Weather Radio Day in Moore, 9am-2pm, SW 19th #Walmart (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Walmart&src=hash) #okwx (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash) http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMGgMkmCcAAlkYY.png (http://t.co/m0HrJuYrn8)
Sounds like a great thing to do. Speaking of NOAA weather radio, Wunderground has a network of online streaming NOAA weather radio stations. Oklahoma has at least 3 or 4. National directory of them is at Wunder Radio Directory | Weather Underground (http://wunderground.com/wxradio)
soonerguru 06-08-2013, 12:19 AM I never said it was risk free. But the vast, vast majority of people can survive.
I'm not the expert here. Just quoting them : Get as low as you can and put as many walls as you can between you and the tornado. | Living on the Real World (http://www.livingontherealworld.org/?p=899)
So you're saying the vast majority of people will survive in a closet or bathtub if their domicile receives EF-5 damage? Have you seen EF-5 damage up close? I think your central point is true: in the vast majority of tornadoes, an interior room will do it MOST OF THE TIME. But EF-5 damage is catastrophic and extreme. It is dangerous to suggest this to people and provide them with a false sense of safety. Folks in tornado alley need to be thinking of getting storm shelters for their homes -- or consider evacuating on "high-end" severe days. We only have a few of them each year.
venture 06-08-2013, 08:25 AM Slight Risk today mainly NW 1/3rd of OK. Main risks hail and wind.
AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT JUN 08 2013
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF
ANDREA...AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER JET EMERGING
FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. WHILE THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS
ZONAL IN NATURE...AN IMPULSE EMANATING FROM IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW/
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE...AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...ARE EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THIS PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SOME
FURTHER INCREASE DUE TO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT
WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. TORNADIC
POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED NEAR A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. STRONGER
MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF LONGER HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SMALL UNTIL
MID TO LATE EVENING. REGARDLESS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
MOSTLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN THE
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY DEVELOPING
MESOCYCLONES. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
venture 06-08-2013, 05:19 PM Sorry a little late on this. Wanted to get the yard mowed before more rain. :)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0288_radar.gif
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SALINA KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM AND/OR INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG DEEP WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT IN KS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NEB UPR VORT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SWD INTO W
CNTRL TX. 40-50 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR...WITH A LARGE...DEEP DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZE INTO A E/SE-MOVING LINE OR TWO BY EARLY EVE...WITH A
CONTINUING RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
BlackmoreRulz 06-08-2013, 07:16 PM Dang, I was wanting to put mowing off till tomorrow.....better get busy I guess
RadicalModerate 06-08-2013, 09:59 PM You just had to mention postponed mowing, didn't you . . . =)
BlackmoreRulz 06-08-2013, 10:30 PM I got it done, the edging will have to wait though...
Good light show out there tonight!
RadicalModerate 06-08-2013, 10:43 PM I guess my mowing will have to wait until about Tuesday . . . Had to work today and again tomorrow and Monday. Right after I do the front "lawn" =) which should warm the break-in oil in the new Toro "assisted push" mowing machine enough to change it I will attack the stack in the back. Estimated time to "completion" thirty minutes max. If it don't rain again. =) You're right: Good Light Show tonight.
Thanks, again to Venture and all that you do.
(it ain't gonna rain on Tuesday is it? please say that it ain't . . . =)
Seriously: I take your work in this area at least twice as seriously as the stuff pouring in on the TV.
Dustin 06-08-2013, 11:28 PM Right as this thing moved through, I got a stuffy and runny nose.. I hate allergies.
ou48A 06-09-2013, 04:41 PM Glad I mowed Friday
ou48A 06-09-2013, 04:41 PM Venture79 or Anonymous. (or anybody else) do you know the criteria that must be meet to issue a PDS tornado watch?
And if you do please explain in the simplest way you can?
zookeeper 06-09-2013, 05:11 PM Venture79 or Anonymous. (or anybody else) do you know the criteria that must be meet to issue a PDS tornado watch?
And if you do please explain in the simplest way you can?
Hi ou48A,
I have wondered the same thing. But leading up to those Friday night storms, I believe one of the meteorologists said it's rather arbitrary and up to the SPC meteorologists to use their experience and collaboration with others as the determining factor. In other words, there is no real yardstick or this has to hit that to actually trigger a PDS. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, I'm just passing on what was said around Wednesday or Thursday of that week.
ou48A 06-09-2013, 05:12 PM Venture79 or Anonymous. (or anybody else) do you know the criteria that must be meet to issue a PDS tornado watch?
And if you do please explain in the simplest way you can?
Never mind, but thanks.
Particularly dangerous situation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particularly_dangerous_situation)
PDS tornado watches are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of multiple strong, violent tornadoes in the watch area (usually amounting to damage consistent with EF4 or EF5 tornadoes), also including significant wind and hail damage, when in addition to tornadoes. While there are no set criteria for a PDS watch to be issued, they are usually issued when the potential exists for a major tornado outbreak.
ou48A 06-09-2013, 05:14 PM Hi ou48A,
I have wondered the same thing. But leading up to those Friday night storms, I believe one of the meteorologists said it's rather arbitrary and up to the SPC meteorologists to use their experience and collaboration with others as the determining factor. In other words, there is no real yardstick or this has to hit that to actually trigger a PDS. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, I'm just passing on what was said around Wednesday or Thursday of that week.
Thanks.... apparently what you say is correct.
venture 06-09-2013, 05:26 PM Venture79 or Anonymous. (or anybody else) do you know the criteria that must be meet to issue a PDS tornado watch?
And if you do please explain in the simplest way you can?
There isn't any firm criteria, but typically you are looking at a more high end day when it comes to coverage. If the expectation for multiple strong or violent tornadoes, they'll go with a PDS redbox. I know you didn't ask, but on the flip side...a PDS Severe (blue box) will be put up when a high end Derecho is expected.
Like Zoo said, at the end of the day it is the call of that forecaster at SPC who is putting it together. When we see the probability forecast, I think when looking at the Strong tornado portion...the threshold is going to be 60% or higher on the PDS watches - at least going by this year. 50% or lower, even when the general tornado probability is high, tends to stay a general red box.
So it all comes down to expected coverage. May 31st had the potential to be much more widespread but we saw the convection south of I-40 in SW OK just fade and not get very well established.
Anonymous. 06-10-2013, 09:24 AM Looks like we are getting our first taste of summer this week. 90s and approaching 100s with little to no chance of precip.
You may now proceed to kick anyone who complained about it being "too rainy and cool".
venture 06-10-2013, 09:49 AM Looks like we are getting our first taste of summer this week. 90s and approaching 100s with little to no chance of precip.
You may now proceed to kick anyone who complained about it being "too rainy and cool".
Nah. We should just make them pay our electric bill. :)
Of Sound Mind 06-10-2013, 10:57 AM Looks like we are getting our first taste of summer this week. 90s and approaching 100s with little to no chance of precip.
You may now proceed to kick anyone who complained about it being "too rainy and cool".
Nah. We should just make them pay our electric bill. :)
I vote for BOTH!
Charlie40 06-10-2013, 11:25 AM Well. when is the next rain and cool down expected? late September/October?
Achilleslastand 06-10-2013, 11:29 AM Looks like we are getting our first taste of summer this week. 90s and approaching 100s with little to no chance of precip.
You may now proceed to kick anyone who complained about it being "too rainy and cool".
Correct....
Come July/August we will be begging for moisture im afraid.
ou48A 06-10-2013, 11:48 AM One thing to consider is that the drought still pretty much surrounds us on 3 sides. I suppose this could help put us back into a drought situation a little quicker.
I did hear the high pressure system might move far enough away that it could let a little moisture return to the plains in about a week?
Easy180 06-10-2013, 12:17 PM Looks like we are getting our first taste of summer this week. 90s and approaching 100s with little to no chance of precip.
You may now proceed to kick anyone who complained about it being "too rainy and cool".
In early stages of building our house so this dude is way excited with the prospects of a long dry spell :Smiley181
venture 06-10-2013, 12:23 PM Well. when is the next rain and cool down expected? late September/October?
Ish. LOL
One thing to consider is that the drought still pretty much surrounds us on 3 sides. I suppose this could help put us back into a drought situation a little quicker.
I did hear the high pressure system might move far enough away that it could let a little moisture return to the plains in about a week?
Looks like classic "Ring of Fire" setup coming in. Maybe one or two days could sneak a sporadic shower/storm in here...but otherwise hot and dry through at least the 24th. Eventually we'll be begging for a tropical system to move up.
In early stages of building our house so this dude is way excited with the prospects of a long dry spell :Smiley181
Yay. Easy is paying our electric bills...and will be our kicking dummy. :)
Easy180 06-10-2013, 12:29 PM I should also add I'm living with in laws until its built if that helps out my popularity lol
ou48A 06-10-2013, 05:33 PM http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image2.jpg (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=oun&gc=2)
bchris02 06-10-2013, 06:47 PM Venture, this may be a dumb question, but I've always wondered what causes the rain chances to shut off in the southern plains in the summer? I know a ridge of high pressure generally positions itself over Oklahoma and stays put but why is that? When you go a little farther east, as in past Little Rock, summertime is the wet season.
OKCisOK4me 06-10-2013, 07:12 PM Jet stream shifts north so that the Northwest flow misses us and instead gets the Dakotas, Nebraska, parts of Kansas, Missouri, your Arkansas and so forth.
venture 06-10-2013, 09:14 PM Venture, this may be a dumb question, but I've always wondered what causes the rain chances to shut off in the southern plains in the summer? I know a ridge of high pressure generally positions itself over Oklahoma and stays put but why is that? When you go a little farther east, as in past Little Rock, summertime is the wet season.
OK4me summed it up pretty well. Just an overall pattern change of the jet stream. Ridge builds in typically and shuts down any precip chances. We can see shifts in this where the ridge will back off to the west some and put us into a Northwest flow for a bit which generally brings up the evening/overnight storm complexes. Other things that can throw it off is if the convective temp is reached that allows air parcels to rise through the hot air, but usually this time of year that's extreme hot, and of course tropical systems from the Gulfs of Mexico or California.
venture 06-11-2013, 06:57 AM Last night's GFS is going to start shifting the high over to the TX Panhandle and points west by this weekend. If that happens would put us into a Northwest flow and could bring in some precip this weekend and next week. COULD being the key word. :)
BG918 06-11-2013, 01:25 PM Venture, this may be a dumb question, but I've always wondered what causes the rain chances to shut off in the southern plains in the summer? I know a ridge of high pressure generally positions itself over Oklahoma and stays put but why is that? When you go a little farther east, as in past Little Rock, summertime is the wet season.
The so-called Ring of Fire. Hot and dry weather over the central Plains with storms over the Rocky Mountains due to the subtropical southeast flow on the west side of the high (ties into the southwest monsoon later in the summer) and pop-up storms over the southeast on northwest flow on the east side. The northern US (Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsion) also gets storm systems that ride the jet stream on the north side of the high, and occasionally severe weather. This high can shift west or east but seems to be most dominant over the central states.
The ridge is more entrenched right now over CO/NM causing record highs along the Front Range (99 degrees yesterday in Denver; avg. high this time of year is 81) and rapid melting of the remaining snowpack in the mountains.
bandnerd 06-11-2013, 03:26 PM A lot of people in our neighborhood are taking advantage of the dry weather and getting their roofs replaced. Every time I step outside, I hear hammering coming from a different house. Grateful for a chance to get things fixed over here. Yeah, it's hot all of a sudden. But it happens every year. Frankly, my tomatoes and zucchini plants are thankful for the break!
BlackmoreRulz 06-11-2013, 09:32 PM Pretty cool video of a rotating storm:
A supercell near Booker, Texas on Vimeo (http://vimeo.com/67995158)
http://gallery.mikeolbinski.com/img/s8/v78/p1612048510-2.jpg
Well. when is the next rain and cool down expected? late September/October?
State Fair time.
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