This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

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2013 Atlantic Storm Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy


2013 Eastern Pacific Storm Names: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Manuel, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York, Zelda


2013 Central Pacific Storm Names: Akoni, Ema, Hone, Iona, Keli, Lala, Moke, Nolo, Olana, Pena, Ulana, Wale

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Current Conditions
Eastern Pacific Activity (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml)Atlantic Basic Activity (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_epac/epac_overview.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml)
Atlantic & East Pac SSTs and Active Systems (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at&MR=1)Potential for Tropical Formation Next 48 Hourshttp://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_sst_mm.gif (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at&MR=1)http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif§
Weather Information


Atlantic Visible SatelliteAtlantic Water Vaporhttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPGhttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG
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Western Gulf CoastCentral Gulf CoastEastern Gulf Coasthttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gifhttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southmissvly_loop.gifhttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif§
References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Analysis Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
Spaghetti Models Forecast Page: Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update (http://www.spaghettimodels.com/)
Florida State Model Page: Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
Penn State Model Page: e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html)
Storm Prediction Center: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
ECMWF Euro Model: Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20A merica!pop!od!oper!public_plots!/)

We have our first Tropical Depression of the season in East Pac. TD One-E is forecast to become TS Alvin by this afternoon and a hurricane by Friday. Should stay out in the open water. Sometimes from East Pac systems we can get a good amount of moisture, but this doesn't look like one right now. :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP01/refresh/EP0113W5_NL_sm2+gif/144207W5_NL_sm.gif

In addition to that, the final report on Hurricane/Post-Trop Storm Sandy was released today with several recommendations.

The full report is here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Sandy13.pdf

Changes:

NHC will remain principle point of contact for similar storms instead of handing over to local WFOs.
NWS will generate products focused on impacts to clear communicate hazards.
Develop new tools for communicating with EMs, FEMA, media, and public.
Hire social science expert to help develop better ways to communicate with the public.
Develop more effective and consistent products to communicate severe weather impacts.
Allow NHC to maintain Hurricane/Tropical Storm watches and warnings after a system goes post-tropical.
Allow NHC to continue issuing advisories after the storm goes post-tropical if there is a significant threat to life and property.
Emphasize strongest winds/highest surge could be well away from center.
Focus on substantial hazards regardless of post-trop status.
Personalize storm surge threat for coastal residents.
Provide single website, i.e. "Storm.gov", to offers all critical information in one place for geographically large storms.
Redesign and makes all NWS sites more user friendly.
Provide media a concise overview of storm impacts.
Develop better website redundancies before start of season to avoid outages.
Websites should be easily accessible by mobile devices.
Improve usage of social media.
Provide Storm Surge forecast at least 48 hours out including high-res graphics.
Increase storm surge model developers and additional surge forecasters.
Provide guidance on wave run up and effects on coastal rivers.
Better training for all WFOs that have tropical responsibilities, including back ups.
Develop separate Storm Surge warning.

TS Barbara may make landfall as a hurricane today in Mexico. Will be interesting to see if it survives into the Gulf.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP02/refresh/EP0213W5_NL_sm2+gif/121435W5_NL_sm.gif

Maybe some development in the tropics...overall low chance though.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

Saw one non-gov hurricane/tropical forecast that suggested the possibility, albeit remote, that the L might form and track across Florida, dump some pretty good rain there around Thursday, then be off the Carolina coast by Saturday or so. So that seems to line up pretty well with what Venture just posted...I need for it not to be highly tropically stormy in Florida this weekend :) Prepared for/expect normal afternoon summer thundershowers, but not a tropical storm.

Weak low in the gulf could be a tropical depression in a day and possible a tropical storm before making landfall in the Panhandle of FL. Main impacts are just some heavy rain over Florida.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201391_model.gif

Invest 91L is a bit better organized. Could be a tropical depression soon and maybe be a weak Storm before landfall.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropical Depression/Storm increasingly possible before landfall. Hurricane hunter going in today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

Water Vapor Image showing a ton of dry air on the west side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated.gif



NAM has landfall 10PM CT tomorrow night in the FL Panhandle

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SE/namSE_sfc_prec_039.gif

GFS doesn't tighten the low up but moves the bulk of precip over the Peninsula earlier...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SE/gfsSE_sfc_prec_033.gif

First storm of the season.....

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052203
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Here is the forecast track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0113W5_NL+gif/215509W5_NL_sm.gif

Updated Discussion and latest radar shot showing a good number of tornado warnings for the quick spin ups that are common in the feeder bands.

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013


EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT
ABOUT 6500 FT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT
PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.


ANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING
CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.


GIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS
NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE
DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE
COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
ANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS.


THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT
INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.


REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 06/1500Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jun13/06-1.png

Update on NHC Products and Services for 2013
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130405_pa_2013productChanges.pdf

Say Hello to Chantel...

Tropical Storm CHANTALHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/080301.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/080255.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/080317.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/080258.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/CHANTAL+shtml/030402.shtml?) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/025905_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?hwind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/025905_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?50wind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/025905_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?tswind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313T_sm1+gif/025905T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?table#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?gm_track#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313W5_NL_sm1+gif/025905W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Imageshttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313R_sm1+gif/025905R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?radii#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/025905.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?basin#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313S_sm1+gif/025905S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025905.shtml?swath#contents)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm CenterClick image to zoom in – Download GIS data (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/al032013_5day_latest.zip)
Other images: 5-Day track on (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents) – 3-Day track on (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?3day#contents) – 3-Day track off (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?3-daynl#contents) – Interactive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?gm_track#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0313W5_NL_sm2+gif/025905W5_NL_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents)

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013.png

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201395_model.gif

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al952013_inten.png

Wish this would have a higher chance of getting caught more south and sneak into the Gulf.

Model spread starting to push more over FL and even into the Gulf now. Not really buying it just yet (the Gulf portion), but its there. :)

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201303_ensmodel.gif

The overnight 'sghetti plot continues the drift to the west. Right now the official forecast bring what is expected to be Depression Chantal over much of Florida.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013.png​http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

Invest 98L has moved off the coast of Africa...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER STEWART

http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201398_model.gif

Invest 98L is now TS Dorian

Tropical Storm DORIANHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/241430.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/241425.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241431.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/241430.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/DORIAN+shtml/143402.shtml?) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/143212_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?hwind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/143212_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?50wind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/143212_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?tswind120#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413T_sm1+gif/143212T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?table#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?gm_track#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413W5_NL_sm1+gif/143212W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Imageshttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413R_sm1+gif/143212R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?radii#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/143212.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?basin#contents)http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413S_sm1+gif/143212S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143212.shtml?swath#contents)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm CenterClick image to zoom in – Download GIS data (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/al042013_5day_latest.zip)
Other images: 5-Day track on (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day#contents) – 3-Day track on (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?3day#contents) – 3-Day track off (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?3-daynl#contents) – Interactive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?gm_track#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413W5_NL_sm2+gif/143212W5_NL_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents)
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413W5_NL_sm2+gif/143212W5_NL_sm.gif)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

We have this brewing in the tropics.

It looks like there's a chance it could make the Gulf of Mexico.



http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201304_5day.gif

We have this brewing in the tropics.

It looks like there's a chance it could make the Gulf of Mexico.

You mean what was linked a couple days ago? :)

Here is the spaghetti plot for Dorian right now. Overall model intensity keeps this as a Tropical Storm through the next 136 hours.

http://www.okctalk.com/attachments/current-events-open-topic/4194d1374855468-2013-tropical-weather-discussion-storm_04.gif

4194

You mean what was linked a couple days ago? :)




A lot can change in the world of weather in 2 days!
Hence the post.

A lot can change in the world of weather in 2 days!
Hence the post.

That's why the images auto update. :-P

Dorian starting to come apart as expected. Model guidance has half of them dropping the system below TS strength by 72 hours out, but it is looking ragged so may be well before that. Only one has any real strengthening.

Dorian is dead and has transitioned back to a tropical wave. Conditions don't appear great for any regeneration for the next few days.

Dorian is still trying to reform...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Forecast models are pretty evenly split on bringing it anywhere from up the Florida east coast to into the GoM through the Keys. Half keep it just barely or below Tropical Storm strength through 96 hours and the others take it to a Cat 1 with in 120 hours. So something to watch closely.

In other news, this doesn't happen often and I've been neglecting it, Tropical Storm Flossie in the Central Pacific will be making landfall tonight on the Big Island of Hawai'i.


5 Day Track for FLOSSIE
Storm Archive (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive.php?stormid=EP062013) Forecast
Advisory
#018 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/TCMCP1.EP062013.018.1307290841)
0900 UTCPublic
Advisory
#000 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/TCPCP1.EP062013.000.1307291154)
200 AM HSTDiscussion
#018 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/TCDCP1.EP062013.018.1307290904)
1100 PM HSTWind Speed
Probabilities
#018 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/PWSCP1.EP062013.018.1307290842)
0900 UTCICAO
Advisory
#018 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/TCAPA1.EP062013.018.1307290843)
0900 UTCWatch/Warning
Breakpoints
#018 (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2013/TCVCP1.EP062013.018.1307290841)
1100 PM HSTHawaiian Watches/Warnings (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/watchwarn.php)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/EPAC_storm_thumb.jpg
Flossie
main page (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/FLOSSIE.php)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013Wthumb.gif
5 Day Track (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_w.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013Tthumb.gif
Intensity Probability Table (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_t.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013Sthumb.gif
Wind History (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_s.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/probwinds/EP062013_PROB34_thumb.gif
Tropical Storm
Wind Speed
Probabilities (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=EP062013&latest=y#prob34)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/probwinds/EP062013_PROB50_thumb.gif
50-knot
Wind Speed
Probabilities (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=EP062013&latest=y#prob50)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/probwinds/EP062013_PROB64_thumb.gif
Hurricane
Wind Speed
Probabilities (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=EP062013&latest=y#prob64)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013_sstthumb.gif
Sea Surface Temperatures (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_sst.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013_tcdangerthumb.gif
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_tc_danger.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/kmlimages/kml.gif
kml (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/track_display.php?stormid=EP062013)http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/probchartthumb.gif
Probability Charts (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_cumulativeGraphs.php?stormid=EP062013)http ://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/sigmets/sigmets_ZULU_tcthumb.gif
ZULU SIGMET (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/sigmet.php#ZULU)Press Refresh/Reload to view the most recent image.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013W1.gif (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2013/graphics/EP062013W.gif)

Dorian might rise again if things happen fast...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

Advisories have restarted on Tropical Depression Dorian as of this morning.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013


RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B
AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.


AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING ASSIGNED TO DORIAN BASED ON
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD NOTED IN ASCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DORIAN
COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40
KT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONGER WIND
SHEAR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD SHEAR APART AND
WEAKEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72
HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.


IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF DORIAN DOES BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR
WATCHES FOR ANY LAND AREAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 03/0900Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.9N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 31.4N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 35.2N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

Heading to Daytona Beach next weekend...Anything cooking down in the tropics that might be concerning?

Heading to Daytona Beach next weekend...Anything cooking down in the tropics that might be concerning?

You should be good. Just typical Florida weather...sun in the morning, rain in the afternoon. LOL

You should be good. Just typical Florida weather...sun in the morning, rain in the afternoon. LOL

Good to hear. Last hijack question

Since we are there 7 nights how long does it typically take for a storm to form way out in the tropics until it may affect my vacation spot?

Good to hear. Last hijack question

Since we are there 7 nights how long does it typically take for a storm to form way out in the tropics until it may affect my vacation spot?

Depends where it sets up. Anything out east of the islands would take normally 5-10 days. Its tough to really have anything sneak up on you. :)

Could have something developing in the western Gulf over the next couple days.

Could have something developing in the western Gulf over the next couple days.

Two areas of concern per NHC today. We are getting close to peak season so things should pick up pretty good now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.


2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Invest 92L would be the system moving into the Gulf...

​http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/hgx/graphicast/image2.jpg

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg


Invest 93 is out in the Eastern Atlantic...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

Come on BAMM 14!

NHC Update...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2013081412-invest92l/slp15.png

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922013_inten.png

TD Five (is Alive!)

Tropical Depression FIVEHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/150238.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/150237.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/150238.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/150238.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/FIVE+shtml/024402.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/024036_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/024036_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/024036_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513T_sm1+gif/024036T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?gm_track#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513W5_NL_sm1+gif/024036W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513R_sm1+gif/024036R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/024036.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0513S_sm1+gif/024036S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024036.shtml?swath#contents)Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm CenterClick image to zoom in – Download GIS data (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/al052013_5day_latest.zip)
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Number 5 is alive! Lol

Number 5 is alive! Lol

I'm glad someone caught that. ;)

TD 5 is now TS Erin. The wave near the Yucatan weakened overnight.

Tropical Update for this evening.

Erin is still spinning out in the Eastern Atlantic. No threat to anyone but the fish and boats. Sharknado Watch up for them. ;)

Invest 92 is moving over the Yucatan this evening. Models develop it once it is into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico.

First part...track. The model spread is roughly 75% landfall from near Corpus south along the Northern Mexican coast. Moving the system NW and dying over the mountains or in SW Texas. The others call for a landfall between the Central TX coast up to west of New Orleans. It then moves the system north over an area ranging from Oklahoma through Georgia. Needless to say, a huge spread...but the favorite has to be a Mexico landfall as of right now.

Second...Intensity. Models are pretty much 50/50 split here. Half keep it at or below 35 kts for the light of the storm. The others take it to Tropical Storm strength between 24 and 48 hours out - a little aggressive, IMO. So best thing right now is to go in the middle and figure Depression (if it can form) through 48 hours and then up to a 50 kt storm before landfall. if it turns north then the intensity would go up with more water to play with.

Too early to say what impacts on Oklahoma, if any, it will have right now.

Too early to say what impacts on Oklahoma, if any, it will have right now.

Based on what has already happened this summer, it probably means about 10 inches of rain. LOL

Invest 92 is just about done for...

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Invest 95 is getting a little better organized in the Southern Gulf. Expected to go into Mexico if it organizes.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

Hurricane Hunter heading down towards the Bay of Campeche today. Invest 95 will probably get upgraded just before making landfall.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

Advisories have started on Tropical Depression 6.

FernandHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/252057.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/252057.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/252038.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/252038.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/SIX+shtml/204402.shtml?) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0613_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/204450_sm.gif
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50-knot Wind
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Mariner's
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Wind
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TD 6 Upgraded to TS Fernand...

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013




...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).


A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.


SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Watching a developing Low over the Florida Keys drifting to the west right now. Colder cloud tops are starting to form over the central of circulation. Models don't give it much love, but NHC does have it at a 10% chance for development right now. Gulf is very warm so anything can happen.

Elsewhere looks like the ITCZ will start to pick up from the African coast into the Mid Atlantic. Could see a couple storms form out there if the medium range models aren't smoking anything. We are moving into peak season, so it is bound to get busy pretty quick.

Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_tracks_latest.png

Three areas of concern...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

Area over the Yucatan has a 10% chance to develop the next 24 hours and 30% over the next 5 days.

Invest 97 just east of the islands has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days. Most models take it along or north of the islands and then curves it NE before it gets to the Bahamas. Some models do have this eventually become a hurricane, so the track will be important for many.

Invest 98 is just off the African coast and has a low chance for development as well but should remain out to sea.

TD 7 has arrived. This should recurve out to sea and not impact the mainland.

Tropical Depression SEVENHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/042057.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/042056.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/042057.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/042057.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/SEVEN+shtml/210402.shtml?)

US Watch/Warning (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT2+shtml/042057.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0713_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/205828_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0713_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/205828_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205828.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0713_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/205828_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205828.shtml?tswind120#contents)
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0713R_sm1+gif/205828R_sm.gif
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/205828.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205828.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0713S_sm1+gif/205828S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205828.shtml?swath#contents)

Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_tracks_latest.png

C'mon, BAMS! You can do it! Bring that rain to us!

Seven has been upgraded to Gabrielle...

WTNT42 KNHC 050236
TCDAT2


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013


THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE IS
EXCELLENT WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.


DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...
WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D
RADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE
BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE
DROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
STATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF
GABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING
THAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER
GABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE GLOBAL
HAWK DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST IT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE
CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/7. THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS GABRIELLE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 21.2N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 23.3N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 29.5N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Gabrielle is now basically dead.

Crazy year for topical cyclones trying to get established.

Invest 99 should have advisories started later today. Air recon en route now.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif