2013 Tropical Weather Discussion [Archive] - Page 2

venture

09-06-2013, 12:46 PM

Man I sure am tired of us humans causing more and more extreme weather each year... :noldus:

Not to derail the thread, but I think any common sense would indicate as more carbon based lifeforms populate the planet, CO2 production is going to increase and lead to some warming. We also need to keep in mind that things go in cycles too. If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.

Anyway...

Advisories starting soon on TD 8.

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BrettM2

09-06-2013, 01:37 PM

If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.

Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture! :tiphat:

venture

09-06-2013, 02:34 PM

Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture! :tiphat:

Hey...I'm always hear to bring the good news! ;)

venture

09-06-2013, 02:34 PM

Tropical Depression EIGHTHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/061825.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/061825.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/061835.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/061825.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/EIGHT+shtml/183403.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/182712_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/182712_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/182712_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813T_sm1+gif/182712T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813W5_NL_sm1+gif/182712W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813R_sm1+gif/182712R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/182712.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0813S_sm1+gif/182712S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/182712.shtml?swath#contents)

Anonymous.

09-06-2013, 03:27 PM

Averaging out against the last couple of years, is all!

venture

09-08-2013, 04:17 PM

TD 9 is active now. Forecasts make this our first hurricane of the season.

Tropical Depression NINEHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/082040.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/082039.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082042.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/082040.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/NINE+shtml/204403.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/204015_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/204015_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/204015_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913T_sm1+gif/204015T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913W5_NL_sm1+gif/204015W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913R_sm1+gif/204015R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/204015.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0913S_sm1+gif/204015S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204015.shtml?swath#contents)

Easy180

09-08-2013, 04:50 PM

venture

09-09-2013, 09:54 AM

TD 9 was upgraded to Humberto overnight. Still forecast to be our first hurricane...

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT
PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

HUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY
3. AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE
AZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY
5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48
HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE
HWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR
JUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 13.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.5N 27.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.3N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 24.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

venture

09-10-2013, 12:40 AM

Humberto is up to 60 mph and looking pretty good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Remnants of Gabrielle are strengthening pretty quickly and a recon aircraft is going out later today.

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

venture

09-10-2013, 11:29 AM

Advisories have restarted on Tropical Storm Gabrielle today. Forecast keeps it below hurricane strength. Warnings are up for Bermuda and it will eventually track near Nova Scotia and make landfall in Newfoundland, but it should be extratropical by then.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO TYPE FEATURE. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS
STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 25 KT OR SO OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE
THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.

THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS GABRIELLE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING
AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 96
HOURS. GABRIELLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORWARD MOTION OF GABRIELLE WILL SLOW AS
THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GABRIELLE
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TRENDS A
LITTLE SLOWER AT DAYS 3 AND 4...LYING BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND
THE SLOWER TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 30.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

venture

09-10-2013, 11:38 AM

INVEST 93 in the Western Caribbean is becoming one to watch. Models have this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days. New GFS this morning has landfall on Sunday in Northern Mexico/Southern Texas. 00Z run last evening brought the moisture up into OK by Wednesday the 18th. The 06Z run takes the moisture more over NE TX and into AR. The 12Z run is still going so will know more soon. 12Z NAVGEM is a bit slow and still has the system in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.

Until the system gets going there is obviously going to be a lot of disagreements with the models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_tracks_latest.png

Anonymous.

09-10-2013, 02:11 PM

Some tropical moisture next week would be great!

jn1780

09-10-2013, 07:19 PM

So in regards to forecast track. Should we be hoping for a stronger or weaker system at landfall?

venture

09-10-2013, 10:50 PM

So in regards to forecast track. Should we be hoping for a stronger or weaker system at landfall?

We just need a low pressure center that can hold together and it'll squeeze out juice. Faster forward moving storm or stronger would help with that.

Newer models coming in are starting to show more northerly solutions.

jn1780

09-10-2013, 11:11 PM

We just need a low pressure center that can hold together and it'll squeeze out juice. Faster forward moving storm or stronger would help with that.

Newer models coming in are starting to show more northerly solutions.

Ok, thanks!

Anonymous.

09-11-2013, 08:36 AM

Humberto is now a hurricane. It missed the record for latest hurricane by about 3 hours.

Easy180

09-11-2013, 06:43 PM

So the Weather Channel's prediction of 9 hurricanes in 2013 was just a tad off?

venture

09-11-2013, 08:41 PM

So the Weather Channel's prediction of 9 hurricanes in 2013 was just a tad off?

Everyones prediction was off...but the season isn't over for 2.5 months yet.

Put together a feature page for Invest 93L as it begins to move into the Bay of Campeche: Weather Spotlight | Invest 93L (2013) ? Bay of Campeche (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=480)

SoonerQueen

09-11-2013, 10:08 PM

everyones prediction was off...but the season isn't over for 2.5 months yet.

Put together a feature page for invest 93l as it begins to move into the bay of campeche: weather spotlight | invest 93l (2013) ? Bay of campeche (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=480)

...Air quality alert in effect from 7 am to 7 pm cdt thursday...

The following statement was issued by the oklahoma department of environmental quality.

An air quality alert for ozone has been issued for thursday... September 12...for the oklahoma city metropolitan area due to expected high concentrations of ozone.

Persons with existing heart or respiratory ailments should reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity.

The general public is encouraged to help alleviate the problem by reducing vehicle miles traveled by riding the bus...carpooling...or avoiding unnecessary trips. The public is also asked to avoid refueling during the morning and early afternoon hours...and to avoid the use of two cycle engines such as lawn mowers... Motorcycles...weedeaters...and outboard engines. It is also advised to limit outdoor burning.

For hourly updates on concentrations and possible health warnings, telephone the oklahoma department of environmental quality at 4 0 5 7 0 2 4 1 0 0. For more information on health effects, call the american lung association of oklahoma at 4 0 5 7 4 8 4 6 7 4.

venture

09-11-2013, 10:10 PM

Umm...an Air Quality alert doesn't really have anything to do with the tropics. :)

Plutonic Panda

09-11-2013, 10:42 PM

...Air quality alert in effect from 7 am to 7 pm cdt thursday...

The following statement was issued by the oklahoma department of environmental quality.

An air quality alert for ozone has been issued for thursday... September 12...for the oklahoma city metropolitan area due to expected high concentrations of ozone.

Persons with existing heart or respiratory ailments should reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity.

The general public is encouraged to help alleviate the problem by reducing vehicle miles traveled by riding the bus...carpooling...or avoiding unnecessary trips. The public is also asked to avoid refueling during the morning and early afternoon hours...and to avoid the use of two cycle engines such as lawn mowers... Motorcycles...weedeaters...and outboard engines. It is also advised to limit outdoor burning.

For hourly updates on concentrations and possible health warnings, telephone the oklahoma department of environmental quality at 4 0 5 7 0 2 4 1 0 0. For more information on health effects, call the american lung association of oklahoma at 4 0 5 7 4 8 4 6 7 4.Had a tad too much to drink tonight

ljbab728

09-11-2013, 10:47 PM

Had a tad too much to drink tonight

Huh?

Plutonic Panda

09-12-2013, 12:34 AM

Huh?i don't rightly know amigo

venture

09-12-2013, 12:59 AM

So back to the tropics...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GABRIELLE...LOCATED ALMOST A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

2. LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

venture

09-12-2013, 09:46 AM

Convection is erupting over the Bay of Campeche as the tropical disturbance moves back over water. Would not be shocked to have a Depression by late today. Latest model spread has landfall somewhere from just south of Brownsville south along the Mexican Gulf coast. A few then swing the system north through Texas, but the northern extent of the moisture might be limited by a front moving down keep the moisture mainly in Texas.

venture

09-12-2013, 12:43 PM

Latest update...would expect advisories to start this evening.

1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

venture

09-12-2013, 04:49 PM

Advisories have started...

Tropical Depression TENHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/122105.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/122059.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/122108.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/122100.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/TEN+shtml/211402.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/210133_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/210133_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/210133_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013T_sm1+gif/210133T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013W5_NL_sm1+gif/210133W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013R_sm1+gif/210133R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/210133.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1013S_sm1+gif/210133S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210133.shtml?swath#contents)

venture

09-12-2013, 04:50 PM

First discussion...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Dustin

09-12-2013, 09:06 PM

Dam failure prompts more Commerce City evacs | 9news.com (http://www.9news.com/news/article/354911/71/Dam-failure-prompts-more-evacs)

venture

09-13-2013, 10:46 AM

Depression had been upgraded to tropical storm Ingrid.

venture

09-13-2013, 10:30 PM

Forecast for Ingrid now takes her to a hurricane before landfall. Hurricane watches are up over the Mexican gulf coast. Models keep much of the moisture south of Oklahoma.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

venture

09-14-2013, 05:05 PM

Ingrid is ahead of schedule and is now a hurricane. Still looks like a non-issue for Oklahoma right now, but might see moisture come in late next week.

Eye was briefly visible earlier today...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/10L_tracks_latest.png

mugofbeer

09-15-2013, 08:13 PM

Those of us in Colorado pray that BAMM line isn't the course the moisture takes. The last thing we need is tropical moisture from another storm for a while. Damage is limited to certain areas here but where the flood damage has occurred, it is very severe. Lets turn it east over OK so the SW part of the state can get a good soaking where the drouth is still so severe.

venture

09-16-2013, 09:12 AM

Ingrid is on shore now and starting to spin down. On the west coast of Mexico Manuel came ashore last night so they are getting it on both sides. A lot of water and mudslides to be expects down there. Some of that moisture is going to be pulled north. We have a good front coming through at the end of the week (will talk more in the general thread) that should help drought concerns out.

Humberto advisories should start back up late today or tomorrow.

venture

09-16-2013, 10:31 PM

New system possible moving over the Yucatan now. Early forecast models of it have it developing in the Bay of Campeche and then recurving to the NE around the Gulf cross Florida north of Tampa. Still way too early to lock it in though.

venture

09-17-2013, 10:21 AM

Invest 95L is moving onshore to the Yucatan today and looks like it may take a similar path to Ingrid.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_tracks_latest.png

venture

09-17-2013, 05:12 PM

Concerns are up a bit with the potential for a landfalling tropical system later this week or weekend along the Gulf coast. Impacts to Oklahoma will depend on where it comes ashore. Keep in the mind the system is over the Yucatan right now and, like Ingrid, won't get going until it moves into the Bay of Campeche ("BoC"). The 'sghetti Plot is above that shows what models are thinking for the most part, but I wanted to get more technical with the main models.

Canadian - CMC
Thursday morning develops weak low/depression is the BoC. Reaches Brownsville by Friday morning but remains off shore. The storm will then curve NE along the TX coast and make landfall in Central Louisiana on early Saturday morning. It takes the system up over Mississippi and weakens quite a bit. Some other noticeable features that happen. A week from today it takes the remnant low off the NC shore and redevelops it. The forecast only goes out 180 hours, but it takes this low roughly N along the coast off of the Delaware coast. While this is all going on, it seemingly develops another tropical system over or east of the Bahamas about 84 hours out from today and moves it NNE as a strong storm that moves over Bermuda. It eventually gets absorbed in a stronger extratropical low in the North Atlantic.

European - ECMWF
Operational model develops low over the BoC Thursday morning as well. This system pushes towards the Mexican coast but then halts and starts moving East at 96 hours out. At 216 hours out (this is obviously moving slow than the CMC model) it turns the system due North and has landfall in Louisiana at the 240 hour mark. Other features are a potential weaker system forming near JAX (Florida) and moving to the ENE at 168 hours out. Also another system about 96 hours out east of the Bahamas that will move North into the Maritime Provinces.

GFDL
Has a weak low/depression form the BoC and then move into the Mexico and dissipate. Max winds get up to around 30 mph.

GFS
Develops low in BoC and like Euro takes it to the Mexican coast and hits the brakes. 126 hours out it takes the system NE and landfalls in the FL Panhandle. It takes it off show from GA/SC and redevelops. GFS also picks up on a system east of the Bahamas but keeps it relatively weak compared to the other solutions and moves it North with possible landfall in Newfoundland. It also leaves the possibility of another low forming in the Gulf after this first system pulls out.

HWRF
Same as the others. Depression up and going with in the next 48 hours. It moves towards Mexico but stops well off shore. Tropical storm strength in 60 hours. Category 1 Hurricane at 96 hours. At the end of the forecast wind at 120 hours it is moving ENE and its up to 107 knots or a category 3 major hurricane.

NAVGEM
Very similar to the HWRF positioning, except further to the NE at 120 hours. Landfall near or north of Tampa bay at 144 hours.

So as we go looking at trends in the models, they are pretty clear on what the models are thinking. Right now though it just depends on where landfall might occur. Looking at this spread, it definitely seems the trend is for landfall anywhere from Houston to Fort Myers. I know...I really narrowed that down. :) With the front coming through late this week, it will likely be what deflects the storm out to the NE away from Texas. If the front hangs back any though that could allow this storm to come north even more. Impacts on Oklahoma, from the storm, appear low but we'll have heavy rain from the frontal system moving through anyway.

s00nr1

09-17-2013, 08:20 PM

I'm going to be in New Orleans the 25th-28th so I'll be keeping a close eye on the Gulf.

venture

09-17-2013, 08:31 PM

This is Invest 95L, soon to be Tropical Depression 11.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CDO (central dense overcast) is really increasing around the very apparent center of circulation. Seems like this is going to be a pretty potent low once it hits water.

venture

09-18-2013, 11:13 AM

Models are really starting to focus on a US landfall now along the Gulf Coast. 06Z (early this morning) HWRF model run isn't pretty, but keep in mind this is just one out of a dozen or so models being used to forecast. This has a category 4 hurricane making landfall in Northern Florida just south of the Panhandle.

http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/HWRF/2013091806-invest95l/slp19.png

adaniel

09-18-2013, 11:29 AM

venture

09-18-2013, 04:04 PM

I just got back from Destin yesterday. We were just remarking on how strong the waves were on Tuesday despite sunny great weather. It very well may have come from this.

If it hits that area it would probably be the *least* bad option considering the Big Bend area isn't very populated.

Yeah the problem with Gulf tropical systems, there is really only one small way out without hitting land, and I can't remember it ever happening.

venture

09-19-2013, 12:37 PM

So the good news today is that the system in the Bay of Campeche is struggling to get going. The circulation is definitely not as well defined as it was overland. Hurricane hunter flight for today was cancelled. Most models have made some big changes today compared to yesterday and are now taking it just off the Mexican coast and stalling it out for the next several days. They are split on what happens after that. Some take into Mexico others take it North along the coast into Texas or Louisiana.

venture

09-19-2013, 02:02 PM

Nice batch of storms with heavy rain from Newcastle/Tuttle back to the SW through Chickasha and Apache. Everything moving rough NNE to NE. Some more isolated stuff from Norman down to Purcell. Strongest stuff right now is over Tulsa and east of Chickasha.

Main rule today gusts to 50, maybe some small hail, and buckets of water. Thanks Manuel. :)

venture

09-19-2013, 09:36 PM

Invest 95 is just looking terrible right now. Hardly any clouds near the center of circulation. Chances of this developing continue to drop.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/sep13/tropics1.png

kelroy55

09-20-2013, 07:54 AM

Started getting the line of rain coming up from the south last night and looks like a good all day rain

venture

09-20-2013, 09:59 PM

Invest 95 is done. It will be absorbed by the front that moved through and the moisture will go Northeast.

venture

09-29-2013, 12:55 AM

Advisories started for TD 11 way out in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression ELEVENHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/290231.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/290231.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/290233.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/290231.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/ELEVEN+shtml/024402.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/023332_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/023332_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/023332_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113T_sm1+gif/023332T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113W5_NL_sm1+gif/023332W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113R_sm1+gif/023332R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/023332.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1113S_sm1+gif/023332S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023332.shtml?swath#contents)

venture

09-29-2013, 10:37 AM

Invest 97 in the Caribbean looks like it could move up over Florida late this week. We'll see if that actually happens though.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

venture

10-02-2013, 12:28 AM

Busy weekend and the chat room will be open through this as well if it happens.

Potential "Karen" making landfall in north central Gulf Coast over the weekend.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2013100118-invest97l/slp13.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2013100118-invest97l/slp15.png

venture

10-02-2013, 04:31 PM

Very close to have TD 12 if not TS Karen entering the Gulf. Beautiful outflow pattern over the system already helping evacuation that is needed to strengthen. Have seen a lot of the convection weaken, but in the last hour or so have started to see a burst start up near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

Model Forecasts...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2013100212-invest97l/slp10.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2013100212-invest97l/slp12.png

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972013_inten.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_tracks_latest.png

venture

10-02-2013, 05:05 PM

Recon is in right now and has found Tropical Storm force winds. Still working on identifying if there is a closed circulation. If they find this, it is going right to Karen and skipping the TD step.

Reports oil rigs have already enacted evacuation protocols. Glad I filled up today.

venture

10-02-2013, 05:15 PM

Fuel for Karen as she forms and moves into the Gulf. You don't see it any better...

http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_sst_mm.gif

venture

10-02-2013, 11:53 PM

Model solutions for tonight...

GFS - Strong Tropical Storm making landfall 4AM Sunday CDT in the FL Panhandle.

NAM - Weak Tropical Storm making landfall 1AM Saturday CDT in South Central Louisiana.

GFDL - Strong Tropical Storm (52 kts) making landfall 7AM Saturday CDT in Southern Mississippi.

HWRF - Weak Tropical Storm (38 kts) making landfall 7PM Sunday CDT in the FL Panhandle.

Satellite looks amazing tonight with the explosive convection developing over the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

Anonymous.

10-03-2013, 09:23 AM

Finally some legitimate GOM action.

If she can fan out her bands and fight the dry air, I think it could be a weak hurricane before landfall.

venture

10-03-2013, 11:02 AM

Here are the links for Karen who has winds to 65 mph already.

Tropical Storm KARENHome (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/031438.shtml?) Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/031436.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/031438.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/031436.shtml?) Graphics Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/refresh/KAREN+shtml/144408.shtml?)

US Watch/Warning (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT2+shtml/031437.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213_PROB64_F120_sm1+gif/145003_sm.gif
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?hwind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213_PROB50_F120_sm1+gif/145003_sm.gif
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?50wind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213_PROB34_F120_sm1+gif/145003_sm.gif
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?tswind120#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213T_sm1+gif/145003T_sm.gif
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?table#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gmap_icon.gif
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213W5_NL_sm1+gif/145003W5_NL_sm.gif
Warnings/Cone
Static Images (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213R_sm1+gif/145003R_sm.gif
Warnings and
Surface Wind (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?radii#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm1+gif/145003.gif
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?basin#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213S_sm1+gif/145003S_sm.gif
Wind
History (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?swath#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213_psurge2_m1_sm1+png/145003_psurge2_m1_sm.png
Storm Surge
Probabilities (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?gm_psurge#contents)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1213_esurge10_m1_sm1+png/145003_esurge10_m1_sm.png
Storm Surge
Exceedance (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145003.shtml?gm_esurge#contents)