The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northern cleveland county in central oklahoma...

* until 545 pm cdt

* at 519 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located 2 miles southeast of newcastle...and moving
northeast at 25 mph.

In addition to a tornado...large damaging hail up to two inches in
diameter is expected with this storm.

* locations impacted include...
Norman and newcastle.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now in a storm shelter or an interior room of a sturdy
building. Stay away from doors and windows.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/19-17.png

Tornado near Edmond, Oklahoma - May 19th, 2013 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwVd2eqzlHc&hd=1)

Was not able to record it crossing the freeway...cell phone footage but the picture turned out ok:

3745

So does tomorrow look like a repeat of today or is the setup different with a cold front in play?

Mesoscale Discussion 709
< Previous MD Next MD >


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...182...

VALID 192327Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181...182...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INTENSE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL OK
EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN OK AND SERN KS.


DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
SERN KS ON THE SRN END OF A SQUALL LINE WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM 35 MI W OF TUL...5 NNW CQB...AND 25 ESE OF
OKC. KTLX VWP SHOWED A PRONOUNCED SICKLE SHAPED HODOGRAPH /350
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE NOW CONFIRMED TORNADIC SUPERCELL. VERY INTENSE
ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES WITH THE CLEVELAND COUNTY/POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY
STORM...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE AND NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CONTINUED
CYCLING OF INTENSE TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM. THE 105 KT
ROTATIONAL VELOCITY AT 0.5 DEG AS OF 2320Z...IS HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF
A VERY INTENSE/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADO WITH THIS STORM.

FARTHER NE OVER NERN OK...KINX VWP SHOWS 50 KT SLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL.
ALTHOUGH THE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS KTLX...300
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES.

So does tomorrow look like a repeat of today or is the setup different with a cold front in play?

Tomorrow is going to have a risk for more significant weather. Cold front coming down from the NW is in play and the dryline will still be around, so the cap won't be able to hold much back.

did the Shawnee mall get any damage or is it all right

I think the mall is okay.

So looking at tomorrow the SREH, which is an ensemble of the short range models, shows much of the same just more of it. Everything will be in place for a 3rd day of severe weather, if not worse tomorrow. Exact placement isn't locked down yet, but we'll get an idea after tonight's runs.

Channel 9 had a report of some roof and window damage at Shawnee Mall but not too bad.

My parents house got destroyed in Bethel Acres. Wiped out 3/4 of the home and destroyed their cars. 149th and Fishmarket. Thankfully they're safe.

New storms are trying to fire to the SW of Norman, in juicy air.
The tornado watch continues until 11 PM

New storms are trying to fire to the SW of Norman, in juicy air.
The tornado watch continues until 11 PM

It was just a little shower but CIN is building in and things are pretty well shut down now.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full1.jpg
This is from NWS in Norman and its for Tomorrow

Mike Morgan says the storms could start firing by noon tomorrow

Storms continue to redevelop in a line tonight up in North Central OK. HRRR has a good handle on these. Southward progression doesn't look all that great, so maybe Logan County but that's it. Redevelopment should stop by 1AM and they'll finish moving off to the east and dissipating.

Discussion for Monday

Overnight the dryline will continue to push back to the west. Currently at 930PM it is west of a Watonga-Hinton-Fort Cobb-Apache-Walters line. It should start to slow its retreat by the time it gets just west of Altus and up to Butler. The cold front has sagged south a bit tonight and currently is sitting across NW OK. Very little movement is expected with it through the night.

21Z Sun SREF shows storms will start to fire tomorrow in roughly the same area as Sunday by around 4PM, however more coverage is expected from North to south. Storms will then slowly move east along the cold front as it surges in. By 8PM most of the severe weather should be east of I-35, except for maybe around Ardmore. Heavy rain will be a concern over Eastern OK as the storms will go one for awhile overnight. Instability tomorrow will be much the same with cape values at or above 3500 j/kg ahead of the front. The severe weather indices are going to be much similar today if not higher in some respects, but lower in others. Significant tornado threat index is a slightly lower of Oklahoma tomorrow according to the SREF, and higher up in Missouri. That doesn't mean though that there won't/can't/will not be strong tornadoes. This is model ensemble ran at 21Z that doesn't include any evening soundings and doesn't take into consideration much of the activity today.

00Z Mon NAM is running further west now than its previous solution. It agrees with SREF that storms will start by 4PM over Central and SW OK and will remain in the area until 8PM or so. It is forecasting a dryline bulge over SW OK with the apex approaching Chickasha/Lawton area by 4PM, and probably like today it will be a trigger for supercells to fire off. Dryline won't make much more eastward progress than that and will be overtaken by the front slowly. Front should pass through OKC between 10PM and 1AM. Storms will still be possible until the front moves through as we could see a wave of supercells first and then a squall line on the front.

Instability is there again tomorrow getting to 4000 j/kg by early afternoon and most CIN removed by 1PM - which could allow storms to go earlier. Significant Tornado Composite index will peak around the OKC metro around by 7PM. Unlike the SREH, it has the higher values over the Metro area and then NW AR. Supercell composite values will also be high from the OKC Metro area back to the South and also to the Southwest along I-44.

To give you an idea oh how the forecast sounding looks, I wanted to show the 18Z today from Norman compared to the forecast one by NAM tomorrow. There was no 00Z sounding from Norman due to severe weather ops. The images are below and you can see some indices are better, some are less favorable by a bit...but all in all still shaping up to be a potentially significant day.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20130519.18.gif

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/021/SKT_NAM__KOUN.png

So its looking like tomorrow may be a worse setup for the metro area than today was...

Morgan had the cold front going through the Metro early tomorrow. Not sure what model he is looking at.

Morgan had the cold front going through the Metro early tomorrow. Not sure what model he is looking at.

This is one of the few times I like Morgan's forecast better than the other stations.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/MAY192013OKTORNADODOCSPICS/

A group on FB trying to get lost items and pets back to their owners.

Morgan had the cold front going through the Metro early tomorrow. Not sure what model he is looking at.

Who knows. Probably the same one that had people thinking the dryline was going to plow through the city today or *not* retreat back to the west tonight.

So 00Z GFS is out. Pretty much same as NAM with development time. Also pops everything over Central OK and keeps it around for a few hours. Now really quick on the cold front. The front actually will hang up around us tomorrow and NOT push all the way through. That happens on Tuesday when the threat shifts to SE OK. The highest severe weather threat tomorrow is roughly boxed in my I-44 on the west and I-40 on the north, including much of the Metro area.

So just be prepared. I took a vacation day tomorrow from the "real job" so I'll be in the chat probably around Noon tomorrow. So for those of you who join us from work, when you should be working(!!!!), we'll be in there. :)

Venture, you're really a great guy! Thanks for all that you do.

My parents house got destroyed in Bethel Acres. Wiped out 3/4 of the home and destroyed their cars. 149th and Fishmarket. Thankfully they're safe.

:(

I'm so sorry, man. They are alive and that's all that matters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VvAthNEqxJg

Reed Timmer, Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, and others intercept the tornado in Edmond.

Day 1 Moderate Risk...again.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR
SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR/FAR NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

CORRECTED FOR AREAS IN MODERATE RISK HEADLINE

...SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A PROMINENT CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A
GENERAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEAD/CLOSED
UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET WILL EJECT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS...WITH SEVERE TSTMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY PEAK
HEATING AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A LINGERING UPPER LOW OVER THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS OVER THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH MAY AGAIN BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS
AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE COMMON WITHIN A SPATIALLY BROAD WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN
SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS CITY AREA/EASTERN KS
AND WESTERN OK...AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OK
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TX/WEST-CENTRAL TX.

OUTFLOW REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A RENEWED FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PERHAPS LOWER MO VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.
SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHERN
MO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A PERSISTENT/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING.

THAT SAID...THE MOST INTENSE/MOST PROBABLE SEVERE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES A
PORTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO...AREAS ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE PART OF OK /POTENTIALLY INCLUDING OKC METRO/...TO NEAR THE
HEAT-AIDED SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING SHARPENING DRYLINE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/WEST-CENTRAL TX. IN THIS
CORRIDOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS AND MO. WITH BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW
/50+ KT AT 500 MB/ OVER THE REGION...40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR
DRYLINE ACROSS OK/EXTREME NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND THE OZARKS.

THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...WITH AN EARLY EVENING PEAK
TORNADO THREAT /PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES/ BOOSTED BY A
NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT. ULTIMATELY...ONE OR MORE MCS/S
SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE OZARKS BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING....ASIDE FROM A SEVERE HAIL AND CONTINUED TORNADO
RISK...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BASIS INTO LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

The Moderate Risk is South and East of a line from Bartlesville to Stillwater to El Reno to Anadarko to Lawton to Wichita Falls.

The Significant Tornado risk area is South and East of a line from Independence, KS to Perry to El Reno to Walters to Wichita Falls.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

HRRR indicating storms will fire around 1-2PM. Right now its putting the initial storms in Grady and McClain counties and then a line of supecells from Bartlesville to Chandler to Norman to Duncan.

So take away from this...

1) Don't pay attention to the exact placement right now, HRRR can have a margin of error of 50 or more miles in any direction.
2) This is an indication that storms WILL form in the area.
3) This forecast will probably change a lot of subsequent runs like we saw on Sunday. HRRR started out dry most of the day and then started indicating storms developing.

Venture, don't even know if you're awake right now :).... But yesterday there was some discussion about the possibility of the front pushing through more rapidly than projected...is that at all still in play, or has that already been factored into the models/forecast? Also hearing the jet stream is coming in early...would that not suggest the risk of storms firing even earlier than the 1-2pm timeframe?

Love Oklahoma, but I hate this weather season.

Venture, thanks for everything you do. Every time something comes up, my wife asks, "What does Venture say?"

Heh, I needed to get at least 4 hours of sleep. LOL

We are looking at an earlier show today. Could get first storms forming over the Metro area by 11AM to 1PM. HRRR doesn't move them all that much though. The front is just to our Northwest this morning, but isn't forecast to really push through until early Tuesday - it's just go to slowdown and linger over the area. Storms should start to push South and East of the Metro area by 5PM. So its very possible we'll see continued development over the same areas as each cell slowly moves off to the east. Highest risk area today is essentially I-44 and to the SE.

Venture, thanks for everything you do. Every time something comes up, my wife asks, "What does Venture say?"

Ditto. It was incredibly frustrating yesterday when my phone kept dying and I didn't have convenient/consistent access either to this thread or the chatroom!!!

7:50 AM
NWS Norman @NWSNorman
Attention school systems, parents and students!! We may be dealing with dangerous storms at school dismissal time! Plan ahead! #okwx
ReplyRetweetFavorite

7:50 AM
NWS Norman @NWSNorman
Attention school systems, parents and students!! We may be dealing with dangerous storms at school dismissal time! Plan ahead! #okwx
ReplyRetweetFavorite

We are on a half day here for finals, and our principal said they would watch the weather and dismiss the teachers early if need be. Kids are done at 11:15. I appreciated that.

Pretty crude drawing, but this is where the front is at right now. Forward progress has slowed to a crawl and its more so stationary...but I just didn't feel like attempting to draw it like that free handed. :)

Greatest risk today is along and south of the frontal boundary.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-1.png

We are on a half day here for finals, and our principal said they would watch the weather and dismiss the teachers early if need be. Kids are done at 11:15. I appreciated that.


OKC public schools do a very lousy job about taking proactive action when serious severe weather it’s expected….

They should at the very least be telling parents that all after school activities are being canceled…… And excuse all absences after lunch.
There have been times high risk days when they should have let students and staff go home early but they don’t. Frankly the news media should call OKC public school on the carpet over their poor planning.

It's not a high risk day and this isn't the thread.


I didn’t say that it was a high risk day, today.
But there have been High Risk days when they did nothing.
Please don’t try to tell me where and how I should post.

I didn’t say that it was a high risk day, today.
But there have been High Risk days when they did nothing.
Please don’t try to tell me where and how I should post.

Check the attitude at the door please. Let's keep this on weather and not OKC public schools policies.

It's not a high risk day and this isn't the thread.

Have to agree with sid here. But I will say this: A lot of times it's safer to keep the kids in the building and follow their tornado safety plan than to allow them out right when the weather is getting bad. Schools have done that and people died. I also don't work for OKCPS -- it's a charter, we make our own decisions, so I can't speak for anyone at OKCPS. We will have kids here until 5pm today, even though it is a half-day, because parents won't be able to come pick them up. It's better that someone stay here with those kiddos in case something does happen.

But, back to our regularly-scheduled weather discussion.

Check the attitude at the door please. Let's keep this on weather and not OKC public schools policies.


Yes and there are all kinds of post on this thread that express opinions with attitude…. My post was about a policy that impacts about 20000 or more. It was Sid who brought the attitude!

Have to agree with sid here. But I will say this: A lot of times it's safer to keep the kids in the building and follow their tornado safety plan than to allow them out right when the weather is getting bad. Schools have done that and people died. I also don't work for OKCPS -- it's a charter, we make our own decisions, so I can't speak for anyone at OKCPS. We will have kids here until 5pm today, even though it is a half-day, because parents won't be able to come pick them up. It's better that someone stay here with those kiddos in case something does happen.

But, back to our regularly-scheduled weather discussion.

Then if you agree with Sid then why did you respond to my post that was quoting an official weather source with a post that was about as weather related as mine?

We are on a half day here for finals, and our principal said they would watch the weather and dismiss the teachers early if need be. Kids are done at 11:15. I appreciated that.


But as you say , "back to our regularly-scheduled weather discussion"

Not a good sign from the RAP:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_con_stp_013.gif

It's not a high risk day

KWTV 9 has most of the METRO in its high risk zone and even parts in a higher enhanced zone.
Maybe they see / feel something that makes them feel this way.

Not a good sign from the RAP:



Indeed. It's struggling a bit with precip on the 12Z run, but we know its going to happen today. HRRR is slowing down again on initiation...back to Noon. Front might be drifting back to the northwest a bit right now. Really hard to tell. At the least it hasn't moved for an hour.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013052012/t5/cref_t5sfc_f06.png

SPC trimming MODERATE risk away from OKC metro with updates.

Right now the dryline/coldfront boundaries are draped over NC and SW OK; from Ponca City to Lahoma to Kingfisher to Hobart to Tipton.

Some high clouds streaming in over the moist air here in C OK - this will inhibit morning time heating that is crucial to today's convection.


But until the front and dryline (triple point axis) move through OKC, I wouldn't count out storms.

Anyone want a "WWVS" t-shirt?

SPC trimming MODERATE risk away from OKC metro with updates.


MDT still contains all of the OKC metro and latest model runs continue to point to an enhanced risk in this area. I would totally disregard any reduction of threat level until the system has passed tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full1.jpg

MDT still contains all of the OKC metro and latest model runs continue to point to an enhanced risk in this area. I would totally disregard any reduction of threat level until the system has passed tonight.


Perhaps refresh your SPC outlook page. I am only reporting the data as current. The new update this morning trimmed out OKC. But they will release another update in a couple hours.


The clouds streaming in over C OK are going to play a major factor here, IMO. And I think the NWS is thinking along those lines.

SPC trimming MODERATE risk away from OKC metro with updates.

Right now the dryline/coldfront boundaries are draped over NC and SW OK; from Ponca City to Lahoma to Kingfisher to Hobart to Tipton.

Some high clouds streaming in over the moist air here in C OK - this will inhibit morning time heating that is crucial to today's convection.

But until the front and dryline (triple point axis) move through OKC, I wouldn't count out storms.

Yeah they pretty much took Logan and most of Canadian counties out of it, but until the front shows us what is going on its hard to really put a finger on anything. I would probably read it more so of more isolated convection back to the NW in those areas and then getting more concentrations once they get to I-44. Of course the storms don't care where we draw our lines. Think to yesterday when it seemed most of the local OKC media, save KOCO which never did their own "High Risk", that were pushing NE OK like it was going out of style as a big target. Then of course comparing that to reality...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130519_rpts_filtered.gif


These high clouds that just came in over the hour are going to throw a nice wrench into things. Should be noted that most of Grady County and to the South and Southwest are still in mostly clear skies and that's where our storms are probably going to likely form initially.

Here is where we stand...Green = Slight, Yellow = Moderate. The front is approximate since the Mesonet has it back west a tad bit more.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-2.png

Venture your last post re the cloud deck was precisely what I came here to ask - would seem it could have at least some impact in limiting (somewhat) the heating through the morning, and that seems to be what you and Anon are saying...

We're splitting hairs here Anonymous but technically the current outlook does include OKC:



Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 67,354 4,889,578 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
SLIGHT 395,258 55,158,551 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Ft. Worth, TX...Detroit, MI...

arg accidental double post, disregard, sorry.

Venture your last post re the cloud deck was precisely what I came here to ask - would seem it could have at least some impact in limiting (somewhat) the heating through the morning, and that seems to be what you and Anon are saying...

Yesterday's extended sunshine was probably more unexpected than these morning clouds. LOL It is pretty rare we get a lot of good quality heating like we did yesterday.

Here is the look upstairs this morning...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20130520.12.gif

Really good instability again today. So if we want to compare to yesterday. Cap is a good deal weaker this morning 6.7 vs 8.7 yesterday. We are slightly more unstable, but not by a significant amount. Shear wise it is weaker today than yesterday was at the same time. Storm motions look like they'll be pretty close to the same as yesterday.

So not really a lot of difference...except for limited heating, a cold front, and probably a few dozen other things. ;)

Venture, can you explain that graph? I don't understand what I am looking at. :D:o

Venture, can you explain that graph? I don't understand what I am looking at. :D:o

Click on the first post of this thread and scroll down to the last part of it and I put a little tutorial on how to read the darn thing there. :)

Anyone want a "WWVS" t-shirt?

Do I get royalties to replace my leaking water heating? LOL

We're splitting hairs here Anonymous but technically the current outlook does include OKC:

If you must.... Touche :)

This image will be refreshing itself, so if you leave thread and come back it will likely be different.
Brighter oranges and reds = more instability.

Cloud deck has gotten very thick, but it is breaking up in western Canadian county - if this trend continues and the clouds thin out - we jump 10 extra degrees in about an hour and things are on in OKC.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.SRAD.grad.png

If you must.... Touche :)

A couple of posts could have been advoided if someone said half of the OKC metro is in the moderate risk. lol

This image will be refreshing itself, so if you leave thread and come back it will likely be different.
Brighter oranges and reds = more instability.

Cloud deck has gotten very thick, but it is breaking up in western Canadian county - if this trend continues and the clouds thin out - we jump 10 extra degrees in about an hour and things are on in OKC.



Sun keeps coming out here in Norman every 3-4 minutes. So it is really working to burn these clouds off.