http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130518_1630_prt.gif
Tornado graphic for today
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1probotlk_20130518_1630_torn_prt.gif
Damaging Winds Graphic
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1probotlk_20130518_1630_wind_prt.gif
Large Hail Graphic
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1probotlk_20130518_1630_hail_prt.gif DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN DUE TO BOTH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF GULF OF MEXICO. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AT 850 MB/ TO A
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE GULF
RETURN FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THIS EVENING...AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE PROMINENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND
STRENGTHENS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MODEST STRENGTHENING OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY...AS SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES BEGIN TO EMERGE
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL
PERSIST IN A BELT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT COULD BEGIN TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EVOLVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF STRONG TO EXTREME CAPE...A RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM A BIT LOWER THAN THE
PLAINS...OTHER STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR TODAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES. THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCING EDGE OF WARMER ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE ADVANCING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LIFT
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN INITIAL IMPULSE...NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING DRYLINE POSITION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS AS WELL.

VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY... BUT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT
A RISK FOR TORNADOES BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIFLUENT
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE 850 MB JET BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHENS TO 40-50+ KT LATER THIS EVENING...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
HINGE LARGELY ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING A MORE PROMINENT THREAT. THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

I, too have to agree Venture. Honestly the only limiting variable is fairly large Td spreads in SW OK but once cells develop and move into the much richer air over C OK the tornadic potential will quickly increase. Hence why I plan on following a nice HP beast from SW OK all the way back into the metro. It's the ideal chase scenario.



14Z HRRR run has me a bit more concerned for Central OK today. Storm relative helicity values in the first 0-1km of the storm is showing values up over 300-400 m^2/s^2. This is pretty darn favorable for strongly rotating storms. LCLs are also shown to start dropping to less than 750m down I-44.

If this can be realized, we should probably see the SPC extend the moderate risk further south and east in one of the following updates.

Forecast sounding for 7PM tonight...

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/RUC-test/009/SKT_RUC__KOUN.png

I, too have to agree Venture. Honestly the only limiting variable is fairly large Td spreads in SW OK but once cells develop and move into the much richer air over C OK the tornadic potential will quickly increase. Hence why I plan on following a nice HP beast from SW OK all the way back into the metro. It's the ideal chase scenario.

Exactly. They'll probably start as high based HP hail monsters but as they move up 44 it'll be getting into a much better environment. If I still chased I would be sitting out west of Lawton right now turning into a lobster in the sun waiting.

New briefing from OUN...

2tlJsqOyOLQ

Horrible timing for OKC to do the Tornado Sirens testing today in the wake of Severe weather later today

Horrible timing for OKC to do the Tornado Sirens testing today in the wake of Severe weather later today

A little shocked they even bothered. Norman didn't do their test today, or if they did it was a silent test to make sure the system is operating correctly.

Will the general direction of mature super cells be to the ENE?
Or what direction?
Thanks.

Day 2 expands moderate back to the west and much further south. Won't post all the graphics...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NCNTRL TX INTO SRN MN...

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...


...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY....

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY1...THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
WRN MO BY 20/00Z. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SPEED
MAX/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THE MORE DISPLACED NAM SPEED
MAX IS CORRECT...IF SO THEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD EAST OF DEPICTED MDT RISK.

FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE FORECAST HEIGHT FIELD/WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...AT SUNRISE
IT APPEARS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL
NEB...SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN KS...EXTENDING SSWWD
INTO NWRN TX. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY STRONG WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL KS...SSWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX BY 21Z. IF HOWEVER THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN
THE DRYLINE MAY MIX TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE
REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE
INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTO
OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO
WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK.

Horrible timing for OKC to do the Tornado Sirens testing today in the wake of Severe weather later todayI live in Norman but I could hear Moore testing their sirens today as well

Yes, ENE predominantly except for those that turn right once they mature. They should be fairly slow movers today AOA 20-25mph.
Will the general direction of mature super cells be to the ENE?
Or what direction?
Thanks.

Will the general direction of mature super cells be to the ENE?
Or what direction?
Thanks.

The forecast sounding I put above is 191 @ 15...which would suggesting NNE at 15-20 mph. However the mature cells will turn right and go more ENE or E.

Yes, ENE predominantly except for those that turn right once they mature. They should be fairly slow movers today AOA 20-25mph.

So tornadoes producers would move more in a more due easterly direction.

Thanks for the MPH Information.
I wish the general speed and direction was easier for me to figure out

The forecast sounding I put above is 191 @ 15...which would suggesting NNE at 15-20 mph. However the mature cells will turn right and go more ENE or E.

Thanks

on kfor it still shows most things predicted for n.w ok. is central/metro looking more and more possible for this evening?

on kfor it still shows most things predicted for n.w ok. is central/metro looking more and more possible for this evening?

Jesseda, this is where the discussion on the Slight vs. Moderate risk came up after the Texas tornadoes. The risk area just means coverage will be higher, not that they'll specifically be more severe. All short term guidance continues to show the Metro seeing an impact from today's storms.

15Z run: Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013051815&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Very basic discussion...storms start firing in NW and WC OK by 3PM. SW OK goes up around 4PM. They enter western sections of the Metro area by 6PM.

I'm on my way to Dallas right now, how is that looking, if you don't mind me asking.

Chaser convergence risk today? I would say moderate to high. ;)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/chaseconv.png

All short term guidance continues to show the Metro seeing an impact from today's storms.

15Z run: Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013051815&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Very basic discussion...storms start firing in NW and WC OK by 3PM. SW OK goes up around 4PM. They enter western sections of the Metro area by 6PM.

I have heard there is a possibility of long tracked tornadoes, but do you (or anyone else) expect the Saturday storms to stay discrete enough to still be tornadoes producers by the time the reach the OKC area? …. Or do you think will we have a more of a linear set up?

Seems like tail end Charley might be an issue later this evening?

I have heard there is a possibility of long tracked tornadoes, but do you (or anyone else) expect the Saturday storms to stay discrete enough to still be tornadoes producers by the time the reach the OKC area? …. Or do you think will we have a more of a linear set up?

Seems like tail end Charley might be an issue later this evening?

I think we'll see things stay discreet enough through most of the early evening.

Pretty juice atmosphere already. CIN starting to burn off some.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s14/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1368903022535

Pretty juice atmosphere already.

The humidity in the heart of OK/Cleveland county is thicker than oatmeal. It's hot, sticky, hazy, and clear back to the west and southwest. Seems to me you could start seeing something kick up that direction just about any time.

Ugh. Something sez this isn't setting up well for OKC later tonight. Hope that's wrong.

it will be nice if NWS already issue a watch

The humidity in the heart of OK/Cleveland county is thicker than oatmeal. It's hot, sticky, hazy, and clear back to the west and southwest. Seems to me you could start seeing something kick up that direction just about any time.

Ugh. Something sez this isn't setting up well for OKC later tonight. Hope that's wrong.

Eh...I was getting tired of this 2 year old roof anyway. ;)


it will be nice if NWS already issue a watch

Nah. They'll wait until CU really starts popping to where we know the cap is going to go. Should see an MCD soon though.

First tornado watch of the day going out for CO/NE/KS here in a few. Getting closer.

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)26s (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/335836300194222080)
18Z DDC sounding shows SBCAPE over 4700, and a very breakable cap. Winds and dewpoints prime for supercells along OK-KS border. #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

Areas affected...swrn ks...wrn ok...nw tx...far ern ok/tx panhandles

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 181919z - 182015z

probability of watch issuance...95 percent

summary...scattered tstm initiation is expected on the dryline by
21-22z. Very large hail...isolated tornadoes...and damaging wind
will be possible. Watch issuance is expected in the next hour or so.

Discussion...latest sfc analysis depicts the dryline extending from
swrn ks into the far ern ok/tx panhandles and nw tx. Vis imagery
shows cu increasing in the well-mixed airmass in the vicinity of the
dryline across sw ks into the tx panhandle. While one embedded vort
max is moving nwd out of the area...another embedded vort max over
sern co/nern nm should aid in convective initiation later this
afternoon.

The 18z ddc sounding shows very steep lapse rates in excess of 9.5
c/km in the 750-500 mb layer...which will support very high to
extreme mlcape of 3000-4000 j/kg in areas ahead of the dryline this
afternoon and early evening. While flow is relatively
modest...increasing swly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear
of 35-45 kts ahead of the dryline...which will be more than
sufficient for supercell development upon storm initiation.

Discrete supercell activity is expected within the first 2-3 hours
of initiation...with very large hail in excess of baseball size the
primary threat. Large t/td spreads and relatively weak low-level
shear will limit the tornado threat initially...but a marked
increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado threat
toward evening across mainly nwrn ok into swrn ks...with isolated
strong tornadoes possible with any storms that can remain discrete
after 00z. However...storm consolidation in a well-mixed environment
may result in upscale growth and a transition to more of a severe
wind threat this evening...possibly limiting the window of
opportunity for a more robust tornado threat.

Tornado Watch soon. Getting in the chat room for the rest of the afternoon now. :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0676.gif

Storm Prediction Center May 18, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NCNTRL TX INTO SRN MN...

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...


...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY....

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY1...THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
WRN MO BY 20/00Z. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SPEED
MAX/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THE MORE DISPLACED NAM SPEED
MAX IS CORRECT...IF SO THEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD EAST OF DEPICTED MDT RISK.

FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE FORECAST HEIGHT FIELD/WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...AT SUNRISE
IT APPEARS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL
NEB...SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN KS...EXTENDING SSWWD
INTO NWRN TX. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY STRONG WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL KS...SSWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX BY 21Z. IF HOWEVER THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN
THE DRYLINE MAY MIX TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE
REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE
INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTO
OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER.

FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.


ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO
WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKktdJ2CMAAoSpa.jpg:large

It looks like that the OKC Metro area might be under the Tornado Watch

Watch is out.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WA****A
WOODS WOODWARD

Watch is issue till 11:00 PM tonight

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0171_radar.gif



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER
AREA... SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...TOWARD THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE
THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT. AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME CLOCKWISE CURVED AND
QUITE LARGE THIS EVENING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASES WITH DIURNAL COOLING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

It sure "feels" like "tornado weather" . . .
(and i've only actually seen parts of two actual tornadoes in about 40 years down here.)
(both times the atmosphere "felt" much like this.)

Fortunately, for me, the tornadoes were "over there" (at least a mile away) and i was not.
(helping with the cleanup efforts-- for those less forntunte -- helps one appreciate the gratitude)

Thanks, Again, Venture.
You are the only WeatherMan that I actually pay any real attention to at all.
(you and your assistants, of course =)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKktdJ2CMAAoSpa.jpg:large

must keep abreast of current golf match...:)

must keep abreast of current golf match...:)

Lol, you may know this, but to anyone else who may not. They have it set to local stations so they can watch their storm coverage specifically the live feeds.

If storms fire in SW OK into NW TX, they could slide into some favorable environment as they move NE into the body of OK. This will also set timing up with approaching dark. If anything remains descreet, the low level moisture and shear that will be over SW and C OK tonight could be extremely inductive of tornadoes.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/18-2.png

Chaser convergence risk today? I would say moderate to high. ;)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/chaseconv.png

Thats scarier than any ol storm....STAY OFF THE HIGHWAYS!!!

Chaser convergence risk today? I would say moderate to high. ;)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/chaseconv.pnglol, well I keep an eye out ;)

I could feel and see the mugginess and humidity outside today

What's a good radar tool for Windows or iPad etc?

Just a reminder, the bulk of the discussion right now is in the chat room until things get closer:
Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

lol, well I keep an eye out ;)
Sure hope they ain't a-textin' while a-chasin' . . .

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0680.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171...

VALID 182252Z - 182345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 171 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER WRN OK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO WOULD SEEMINGLY INCREASE
IN THE 00Z-02Z PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
OCCASIONALLY ACQUIRING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STORMS MOVE
TO THE NE AT 20 KT OVER SWRN OK. THE KFDR VWP ONLY SHOWS AROUND
30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LENDING SOME LIMITATION TO GREATER SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN OK FEATURES
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WILL FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
GROWTH WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
EVENTUAL MORE ROBUST STORM OR TWO WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THE REMAINING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME INTENSE
SUPERCELLS WITH STORM-SCALE ROTATION INCREASING IN TANDEM WITH A LLJ
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT BY 00-01Z. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...RICHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WWD
AND IMPROVE PROSPECTS FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES.

..SMITH.. 05/18/2013

glad Sutton is on my TV instead of Mike " exaggeration" Morgan

I highly recommend RadarScope 2.0 for the iPad.


What's a good radar tool for Windows or iPad etc?

glad Sutton is on my TV instead of Mike " exaggeration" Morgan

She showed a RED high risk area for severe storms for Sunday, which included northern Oklahoma like Enid and Stillwater down south to the OKC area.

Environment is improving quickly and tornado risk is starting to escalate in SW OK. Stay alert.

This is terrible, I hope these tornadoes don't form at all today or tomorrow

glad Sutton is on my TV instead of Mike " exaggeration" Morgan
You mean Mike "Morgasm". He gets off on anything "severe".

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130519_0100_prt.gif
This is just west of OKC Metro area

Venture KOCO 5 remove they logo during the last severe weather update

SVR Warning for a good chunk of the Metro area now.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 945 PM CDT


* AT 901 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THE LEADING EDGE OF WINDS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL RENO TO TUTTLE TO
TABLER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...DEL
CITY...EL RENO...STELLA...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...THE
VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...CHOCTAW...NEWCASTLE...NOBLE...HARRAH...
TUTTLE...NICHOLS HILLS AND SPENCER.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/images.scribblelive.com/2013/5/19/79508d7b-a533-46d5-8355-5744193c0721_500.png

She showed a RED high risk area for severe storms for Sunday, which included northern Oklahoma like Enid and Stillwater down south to the OKC area.
Emily Sutton apparently has been sucked into Channel 4's fear-mongering tactics of the weather team. All other weather folk have the biggest risk for tomorrow slightly north and east of OKC metro. Not Em and 4, they've got it dead centered over OKC in the highest risk area. These Channel 4 folk seem to enjoy predicting the worst always, winter, spring, summer, fall. YOu name it they lay out the worst case scenario.

Emily Sutton apparently has been sucked into Channel 4's fear-mongering tactics of the weather team. All other weather folk have the biggest risk for tomorrow slightly north and east of OKC metro. Not Em and 4, they've got it dead centered over OKC in the highest risk area. These Channel 4 folk seem to enjoy predicting the worst always, winter, spring, summer, fall. YOu name it they lay out the worst case scenario.

That would actually be closer aligned to SPC and NWS's thinking.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg

Just issued severe thunderstorm watch that lasts until 3am doesn't include Oklahoma County. Counties affected: Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Craig; Creek; Garvin; Grady; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Lincoln; Mayes; McClain; Murray; Nowata; Okfuskee; Okmulgee; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Rogers; Seminole; Stephens; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington.

Stillwater Weather - Advisories, Watches, Warnings, Etc. (http://stillwaterweather.com/advisories.php?zone=OKC119#WL1)

Emily Sutton apparently has been sucked into Channel 4's fear-mongering tactics of the weather team. All other weather folk have the biggest risk for tomorrow slightly north and east of OKC metro. Not Em and 4, they've got it dead centered over OKC in the highest risk area. These Channel 4 folk seem to enjoy predicting the worst always, winter, spring, summer, fall. YOu name it they lay out the worst case scenario.

I saw all of the broadcasts and every station had at least part of Oklahoma City and the metro area in the highest risk area. KFOR hardly had the risk dead centered over OKC.

Tomorrow | KFOR.com (http://kfor.com/weather/maps-and-radar/tomorrow/)

I saw all of the broadcasts and every station had at least part of Oklahoma City and the metro area in the highest risk area. KFOR hardly had the risk dead centered over OKC.

Tomorrow | KFOR.com (http://kfor.com/weather/maps-and-radar/tomorrow/)
Then you saw it wrong. I'm not making this up. And, I didn't say OKC was not in the area. You must have trouble with your reading also. Your link is not the same one she had on at 10 something.