Venture79,

Before this heats up, I wanted to take an opportunity to thank you for what you do here. You provide a vital and potentially life-saving service to the members of this community. The televised weather reports are remarkably bland and uninformative compared to the rich data and interpretation you provide. I just watched KFOR and they mentioned the possibility of tornadoes, but not much data and certainly not much in the way of a projected timeline for the initiation of events. Thank you so much.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0252_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...WW 251...


DISCUSSION...TRAILING EXTENSION OF MCS OVER N-CNTRL OK HAS RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO CNTRL OK WHERE THE CAP HAS BECOME WEAK WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND AT
LEAST MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A FEW
OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-3.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-4.png

Does all this mean I should park in a parking garage instead of a surface lot when I go see Paul McCartney in Tulsa tonight? :) (The BOK Center is probably safer than where I live on the 'fraidy hole scale.)

Does all this mean I should park in a parking garage instead of a surface lot when I go see Paul McCartney in Tulsa tonight? :) (The BOK Center is probably safer than where I live on the 'fraidy hole scale.)

You won't know for sure until it happens. It can hail in one part of town and not the other during a tornado watch.

Probably be a good idea & hope they don't double the parking fee:)

You won't know for sure until it happens. It can hail in one part of town and not the other during a tornado watch.

Bunty keep an eye on the storm west of you back by Lovell.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-10.png

Tornado Warning for the Cashion storm.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-11.png

Anadarko and Pawnee biggest risk right now of tornadoes.

Guthrie needs to be ready.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-13.png

2:02 PM

NWS Norman @NWSNorman

2pm - HEASD UP Chickasha! Watch this storm near Anadarko!! #okwx

ReplyRetweetFavorite

I noticed the Tornado Watch is in effect until 10:00 tonight. I suppose that means storms will be forming to our SW all afternoon into the evening?

I noticed the Tornado Watch is in effect until 10:00 tonight. I suppose that means storms will be forming to our SW all afternoon into the evening?

Very well could. The Dryline is retreating west so it isn't coming through to shut things down tonight.

Mike Morgan stressed that when he was 10 years old and storm chasing that the dryline fired three separate times in one day so yes that could very well be the case.

South Metro...be ready. Storm is wrapping up.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-15.png

Very well could. The Dryline is retreating west so it isn't coming through to shut things down tonight.

Thanks Venture! I add my voice to those thanking you for all the time you take to help keep us informed in a calm and reasoned manner. David Payne is just going nuts on 9 right now and it's rubbing off on Val Castor. Payne's just literally screaming right now.

Thanks again!

Tornado Warning now...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EAST CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLEBERG...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

Thanks Venture! I add my voice to those thanking you for all the time you take to help keep us informed in a calm and reasoned manner. David Payne is just going nuts on 9 right now and it's rubbing off on Val Castor. Payne's just literally screaming right now.

Thanks again!He's just excited, that what storm chasers do and they love it. I occasionally will chase storms, which might not be smart as I don't know how to accurately predict the path, but it's fun.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-18.png

I don't see anything down south that's going to affect us.

The wind is dry here in NW OKC, at least to me. Nothing but little high clouds looking to the west.

Dog loves it. 3771

Classic I-44 pattern.

Bunty keep an eye on the storm west of you back by Lovell.



Thanks. Fortunately, the most menacing part of the storm complex bypassed Stillwater just to the south and southeast.

He's just excited, that what storm chasers do and they love it. I occasionally will chase storms, which might not be smart as I don't know how to accurately predict the path, but it's fun.

I'm not questioning how much he loves it. He's been doing it for years in this market. I am only questioning his not being able to find a middle ground in corralling his excitement to where he doesn't sound hysterical. It was obviously irritating Gary.

You can get across the seriousness of the situation without screaming.

Sorry, this belongs in the weather media thread.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-20.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-21.png

I'm not questioning how much he loves it. He's been doing it for years in this market. I am only questioning his not being able to find a middle ground in corralling his excitement to where he doesn't sound hysterical. It was obviously irritating Gary.

You can get across the seriousness of the situation without screaming.

Sorry, this belongs in the weather media thread.i could tell Gary was beginning to get really frustrated, at one point he said "guys just tell us where it's at, we can see it".

NWS Norman @NWSNorman

556pm - Turner Falls and Falls Creek - dangerous storm coming your way! Giant hail and maybe a tornado. Take cover now! #okwx

ReplyRetweetFavorite

Falls Creek kind of busy right now. I'm praying for those kids.

Watch is getting pulled down slowly.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 252 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS


IN OKLAHOMA THIS CANCELS 10 COUNTIES


IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


CANADIAN KINGFISHER LOGAN
OKLAHOMA PAYNE


IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA


NOBLE


IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA


CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
TILLMAN

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-23.png

How severe does this risk look tomorrow for the metro area? I know severe weather is forecasted, but when you put the ingredients together, does it look like it could be a May 20 type situation? Seeing the stationary front and the dry line converging that close to OKC scares me.

How severe does this risk look tomorrow for the metro area? I know severe weather is forecasted, but when you put the ingredients together, does it look like it could be a May 20 type situation? Seeing the stationary front and the dry line converging that close to OKC scares me.

Please, stop trying to compare two weather events. No two weather events are alike. Even if it did set up EXACTLY like it did on May 20, it could fizzle out and do nothing. It's the nature of nature. Just be aware that tomorrow weather might be nasty and take the proper precautions. Psyching yourself out that it's going to be another whatever date isn't helping you or anyone else. Seriously. Stahp.

Tomorrow could be another very active day. Will post more after the evening model runs.

How severe does this risk look tomorrow for the metro area? I know severe weather is forecasted, but when you put the ingredients together, does it look like it could be a May 20 type situation? Seeing the stationary front and the dry line converging that close to OKC scares me.

May 20 for the most part came together perfectly at the very last minute at that particular geographic location in the state. Nothing suggested an outbreak occuring and there wasn't an outbreak. Moore just happen to be at a bad place at a bad time. The supercomputers can only do so much in "predicting" the weather.

According to KFOR, tomorrow is going to have the biggest tornado risk we've seen with this storm yet. They stated that lower-level wind shears will be perfect for tornadoes to form rapidly and they showed storms firing southwest of OKC and moving into the metro between 2PM and 4PM.

That's why I watch News9...they didn't mention anything like that in their forecast.

It seems that KFOR suits you fine--scaring the crap out of you.

Tomorrow Only Knows ... listen to some Beatles and stay tuned.

Here's a video of the Perkins area activity with commentary shot by Aaron Tuttle, meteorologist. The funnel came close to developing into a tornado.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=biM3kFoczRQ

That's why I watch News9...they didn't mention anything like that in their forecast.

It seems that KFOR suits you fine--scaring the crap out of you.

News 9 also had today as a "High Risk" which is wasn't even close to being. They are both guilty of over hyping.

The outlook for Friday May 31st in Oklahoma calls for another round of severe storms. Instability will be high again and multiple boundaries will be in play. Potential will be there for significant severe weather including hail, widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

00Z NAM Discussion

According to the evening NAM run, by 4PM the cold front will be through much of NW OK and a dryline will be in West Central OK. Instability will be high in the area ahead of these boundaries. It should also be noted that existing boundaries from Thursday’s convection will add another dynamic to the setup. Storms should start to fire in the early afternoon and move NE at about 25 mph. Forecast sounding is favorable for all modes of severe weather.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/31-nam-1.png

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/024/SKT_NAM__KOUN.png

00Z GFS Discussion

Much like the NAM, it has the cold fron through much of NW OK but just a smidge further SE. Dryline will be in SW OK as well. Instability is forecast to be high to extreme over much of the area ahead of the boundaries. GFS has surface winds a bit more favorable for low level rotation showing backed (Southeast) winds. Forecast sounding is also indicative of all modes of severe weather being possible on Friday.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/31-gfs-1.png

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/024/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png

OUN has just updated their thinking as well...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image8.jpg

I was right earlier in the week when I had a hunch Friday would be the most dangerous day.

This looks like a repeat of the setup on May 20th, but as people here have said that doesn't mean the same thing will happen. Let's hope we are all still here tomorrow night and can avoid a major catastrophe.

Tomorrow Only Knows ... listen to some Beatles and stay tuned.

Okay, I will . . . (from the best Beatles album of them all):

tisjsgsgtZU

I was right earlier in the week when I had a hunch Friday would be the most dangerous day.

This looks like a repeat of the setup on May 20th, but as people here have said that doesn't mean the same thing will happen. Let's hope we are all still here tomorrow night and can avoid a major catastrophe.

Really? If you are this distraught after the tornado last week, I would suggest seeking counseling immediately. You are approaching the point of becoming the new "Thunder" who was sent packing for being a distraction by posting similar comments repeatedly. If you are truly in this much fear, talk to someone and find help. If you are just here to hype and troll...well that's for Pete to handle.

Really? If you are this distraught after the tornado last week, I would suggest seeking counseling immediately. You are approaching the point of becoming the new "Thunder" who was sent packing for being a distraction by posting similar comments repeatedly. If you are truly in this much fear, talk to someone and find help. If you are just here to hype and troll...well that's for Pete to handle.

I apologize. This will be my last post in this thread.

According to KFOR, tomorrow is going to have the biggest tornado risk we've seen with this storm yet. They stated that lower-level wind shears will be perfect for tornadoes to form rapidly and they showed storms firing southwest of OKC and moving into the metro between 2PM and 4PM.
Here's Aaron Tuttle's Facebook commentary on how Friday looks:

"Friday Severe Weather Update (more tornadoes expected): They say 3rd time's the charm. It appears all the ingredients will be present once again across C OK for more supercell storms producing tornadoes.

This time around things are more in-phase unlike the last two days. Remember day one we had storms pop early out ahead of the main line which stabilized the atmosphere and prevented tornadoes from occurring with the 2nd wave. Day 2, today, storms fired off too early along the dryline due to the very weak CAP and the parameters needed for tornadoes didn't peak until early evening and by then most of the storms were out of the area.

Day 3, tomorrow, it appears the only limiting factor will be weak mid level winds although we'll see plenty of directional shear and extreme instability which can overcome the weaker winds. Throw in a surface boundary to work with and it spells trouble. The CAP should prevent any early storm development, so the show will be a late afternoon/evening event like we normally see around here. That will be when the tornado threat is highest. C OK will also be the entrance region of the upper jet this time around so I expect explosive storm development and a lot of rotating updrafts with supercells moving through the OKC metro area and along the I-35 corridor once again. If I had to pick the highest area to see tornadoes it would be smack dab in the middle of the state, ie, the greater OKC metro area and points south, north, and east a bit.

Have a game plan. You can live through a large tornado, just put as many walls between you and the outside as possible. If you have a storm shelter, use it. Keep a weather radio or smartphone app with you at all times. We're almost past this round of severe storms. As we head into June things get quiet real quick around here as the tornado threat shifts into the C Plains. Share this post to spread awareness and check back here tomorrow morning for an update. -AT"

I apologize. This will be my last post in this thread.

It's not about discouraging you to post, quite the opposite. It just seems every post you have is about doom and gloom or referring to a noteworthy event when it serves no purpose but to incite apprehension.

Okay so jumping in to explain the following...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image2.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

You are going look at this and be like "AMG violent tornadoes"...but the plan right now is that we'll transition to 1 or 2 MCS's over the state that will raise the threat of widespread destructive winds (70 mph+) which typically mitigates tornadoes. So where is this violent tornado threat coming from? Low Level Jet...or LLJ. It's going to be increasing at night, like it always does, so the shear parameters are going to go up. So if there are any established supercells at the time the tornadoes (if there are any) will have an extra kick to them in the evening.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_stp_027.gif

Here are the tornado reports for tonight...


0844 PM TORNADO BROKEN ARROW 36.05N 95.79W05/30/2013 TULSA OK BROADCAST MEDIA BETWEEN 91ST AND 101ST STREET NEAR 193RD AVENUE

0654 PM TORNADO MAZIE 36.11N 95.36W05/30/2013 MAYES OK BROADCAST MEDIA MEDIA CHASERS VIDEOED A TORNADO NEAR MAZIE.

0326 PM TORNADO RIPLEY 36.02N 96.90W05/30/2013 PAYNE OK BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED BY KWTV

0315 PM TORNADO 5 E PERKINS 35.98N 96.94W05/30/2013 PAYNE OK BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED BY KWTV

0308 PM TORNADO PERKINS 35.98N 97.03W05/30/2013 PAYNE OK BROADCAST MEDIA LASTED ABOUT 30 SECONDS. REPORTED BY KWTV.

0810 PM TORNADO 11 SSE SAYRE 35.15N 99.56W05/29/2013 BECKHAM OK LAW ENFORCEMENT BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED BY THE ERICK POLICE DEPARTMENT 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE SPRING CREEK CHURCH.

New SPC outlook is out...Moderate has been expanded back to the South and West as we were discussing in the chat earlier tonight.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OK...EXTREME SERN
KS...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME NWRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NW TX/SWRN OK
REGION TO PORTIONS SRN WI AND LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE ON DAY-1 SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE
CYCLONE NOW LOCATED OVER SD...FCST TO MEANDER SLOWLY ENEWD OVER MN
BY 1/12Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN ROCKIES ACROSS S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...INFUSED
WITH ONLY MINOR VORTICITY LOBES. HOWEVER...THOSE PERTURBATIONS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP HEIGHT CHANGES NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE OVER MOST OF SVR OUTLOOK AREA DURING 31/18Z-01/06Z TIME
FRAME.

ASSOCIATED/PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH LOW
ALOFT THROUGHOUT PERIOD. BY 1/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER CENTRAL MN...ENE OF MAIN LOW...SSWWD
ACROSS NWRN MO AND SERN KS...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD ACROSS
NRN THROUGH SWRN OK. FRONT SHOULD INTERSECT DRYLINE OVER
W-CENTRAL/SWRN OK DURING AFTERNOON...WITH THE INTERSECTION POINT
BACKING SWWD AS DRYLINE RETREATS IN EVENING. LATE-AFTN DRYLINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM FRONT SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX INTO BIG BEND
REGION...LIKELY BACKING THROUGH PERMIAN BASIN AFTER DARK. SECONDARY
SFC LOW -- REINFORCED BY INTENSE INSOLATION/HEATING FROM THERE SWWD
INTO DRY SECTOR -- SHOULD FORM INVOF DRYLINE/FRONT TRIPLE POINT BY
LATE AFTN.

...OK TO OZARKS...
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT...AND VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WILL BE IN THIS
CORRIDOR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- PERHAPS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS KS/MO...WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE MODES DURING
AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFER HAIL AOA 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN SOME
LOCALES...AMIDST EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S F DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DEEPLY
BUOYANT PROFILE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5500 J/KG...AMIDST 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. DISCRETE PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
TIME...SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY TO SFC LOW...EXTENDING INTO LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING 31/23Z-01/03Z
TIME FRAME. SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD YIELD BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OK WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH INCREASING
1-2 KM AGL FLOW AROUND 00Z-03Z TO INCREASE BOTH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 300-500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE INFLOW PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT COMPLEX OF STG-SVR TSTMS
MAY PERSIST AND SHIFT EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN OK AND
OZARKS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

I was right earlier in the week when I had a hunch Friday would be the most dangerous day.

This looks like a repeat of the setup on May 20th, but as people here have said that doesn't mean the same thing will happen. Let's hope we are all still here tomorrow night and can avoid a major catastrophe.

I have a feeling "we'll" all still be here, considering that the vast majority of okctalk'ers are not confined to a one square mile area that is gonna be hit by a tornado tomorrow. If it's gonna tornado tomorrow, let's just hope for minimal damage in the country somewhere.

So seems as if timing of concern will be 4 pm?

I'm taking my bicycle helmet to work again :-)

Only a couple of clouds this morning. Lack of instability will not be one of the limiting factors today.

Venture, can't even imagine you're here at the moment :), but is there any hope that we may getting away from this cycle going into next week? I see 20-30% POPs mid-late week, but wasn't sure if the early indications were for another round or if perhaps we're finally getting out of this cycle...

From the National Weather Service
Severe Weather Update - 745 am Fri May 31, 2013

Severe Weather Update - 745 am Fri May 31, 2013 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RGZuVHZ1MQ&feature=youtu.be)
Highest tornado risk so far this week

Venture, can't even imagine you're here at the moment :), but is there any hope that we may getting away from this cycle going into next week? I see 20-30% POPs mid-late week, but wasn't sure if the early indications were for another round or if perhaps we're finally getting out of this cycle...


Next week looks similar, only not with the severity of this week. Looks like general thunderstorm chances throughout. The best part is temperatures still in the 80s!



Now on to today.

Right now we are in full sunshine over much of C and SW OK. With temperatures only falling to mid 70s last night, we have ourselves a head start on daytime heating.

Temperatures will be touching 90F by mid afternoon and the only thing keeping them from going higher is the insane amounts of moisture in the air. This is going to be an ideal condition for explosive thunderstorms once the CAP is weak.

The thing to watch here is the boundaries, right now we have the dryline out west stretching from Grant to Blaine to Jackson counties. The dryline should push to a similar location as yesterday, only lagging just a bit behind to the SW.

The boundary to the north will be sagged slightly further SW connecting to the dryline to the due W of the OKC metro area. This will create a sort of psuedo triple point. This will be similar to what we saw west of Guthrie towards Kingfisher yesterday that kept producing multiple storms from the same area.


With the temperatures and clear skies being much more of a contributor to instability, I would say later today has a chance to be very significant.