SoonerDave
05-30-2013, 06:35 AM
Venture, where did that dryline end up? And what kind of outflow boundaries emerged from last night's storms? Enough to keep the big storms down some today?
View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2013 SoonerDave 05-30-2013, 06:35 AM Venture, where did that dryline end up? And what kind of outflow boundaries emerged from last night's storms? Enough to keep the big storms down some today? venture 05-30-2013, 07:21 AM Dryline isn't completely clear yet this morning since moisture is still up from overnight. But this is a good hint of where it will end up this morning... http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png venture 05-30-2013, 08:03 AM Upgraded to Moderate Risk officially now... Moderate risk is east of a line from Blackwell to Guthrie to Mustang to Ninnekah to Elmore City to Davis. So it includes all but the Western OKC metro counties. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS NNE INTO THE MID MO AND MID/UPR MS VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... NE WY UPR LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS SD THIS PERIOD AS ATTENDANT NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS TODAY...AND NNE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY/UPR MS VLY TNGT/EARLY FRI. STRENGTHENED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF TROUGH --- WITH 500 MB SPEEDS AOA 50 KTS --- WILL MAINTAIN LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLNS...WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS NEARLY STNRY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT LINE ARCING SSW FROM THE ND/SD LOW SHOULD ADVANCE ESE ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE FARTHER S...A DRY LINE WILL MIX E INTO SW KS...WRN OK...AND W CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVE. THE TRUE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ND/SD LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY ACROSS NRN MN/LK SUPERIOR. BUT A SHALLOWER WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE --- ESSENTIALLY THE BOUNDARY MARKING THE SW EDGE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW --- SHOULD EDGE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK...PERHAPS REACHING PARTS OF AR AND SW MO BY EVE. THE COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT...THE DRY LINE...AND THE SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALL MAY SERVE TO FOCUS STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. ...S CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT... ARGUABLY THE MOST INTENSE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL...SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE THAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF UPR TROUGH. GIVEN 40+ KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR /WITH A SIZABLE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT/...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/ ...AND A DEEP EML...SETUP COULD YIELD LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. BASED ON CURRENT AND FCST AFTN SFC CONDITIONS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK AND WRN AR INTO N TX. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO FORM...AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...REMAIN SUSTAINED...THE WIND/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP LIKELY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY MAXIMIZE NEAR SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL FEATURE OVER CNTRL/ERN OK...WHERE SFC FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED. IN ADDITION...IF STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVE...THEY WILL FIND THEMSELVES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING LOW-LVL SHEAR AS THE LLJ NOT ONLY STRENGTHENS NOCTURNALLY...BUT ALSO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN. UNCERTAINTIES DO REMAIN REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE AREA OF GREATEST BUOYANCY AS /1/ HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY /ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL OK SWD/ IN WAKE OF PASSING NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH...AND /2/ EML CAP WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY S OF THE RED RVR. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE HIGH-END HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM...A MODERATE RISK SEEMS WARRANTED ATTM. venture 05-30-2013, 08:07 AM 10% Tornado Threat with is also hatched for F2+ risk today includes the area east of a line from...Medford to Enid to El Reno to Lawton. It then runs north of a line from Lawton to Sulphur to McAlester to Stigler to Bentonville AR. Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 08:15 AM Dryline is nicely viewable on visibile satellite imagery. Some patchy clearing taking place over much of the state, but we will need a lot of the clouds to burn off this morning for a real threat. venture 05-30-2013, 08:33 AM Here are the boundaries Anon is talking about... http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30.png OKCMallen 05-30-2013, 08:37 AM Got-DANG those are some top-notch illustrations! :D bchris02 05-30-2013, 08:38 AM Today's setup has me significantly more concerned than yesterdays. Tomorrow's as well. How does this compare to May 19-20? venture 05-30-2013, 08:39 AM Yay Paint Time! ;) LOL NoOkie 05-30-2013, 08:39 AM Cloud cover seems to be burning off already up here on the Northside. bandnerd 05-30-2013, 08:40 AM Upgraded to Moderate Risk officially now... Moderate risk is east of a line from Blackwell to Guthrie to Mustang to Ninnekah to Elmore City to Davis. So it includes all but the Western OKC metro counties. Cue bchris02's freak-out. venture 05-30-2013, 08:40 AM Today's setup has me significantly more concerned than yesterdays. Tomorrow's as well. How does this compare to May 19-20? You do realize you can have the exact same setup and not get the same result? Comparing to previous events is pointless if you are expecting to determine the outcome of the day. bchris02 05-30-2013, 08:40 AM Cloud cover seems to be burning off already up here on the Northside. Yes, it's already sunny in NW OKC. Not a good sign. OKCMallen 05-30-2013, 08:49 AM Probably about 50% burned off downtown. SoonerDave 05-30-2013, 08:53 AM Yes, it's already sunny in NW OKC. Not a good sign. The amount of sun in one very localized area isn't nearly as indicative of the broader atmospheric "pot" as one might imagine. I'm in E OK County and the cloud deck is thick like cotton candy over here. The key is the broader region of the atmosphere either being heated due the general absence of clouds, or being kept cool by the general presence of clouds. That satellite vapor imagery shows a pretty substantial cloud deck at the moment generally over the state, and so long as that is present, it generally mitigates the atmospheric heating. Note the intentional abuse of the word "general" :) That's because the best any of these forecasts and assessments can do is give us an idea of the structure and condition of the atmosphere and a best notion of where things will be later on. To try and draw exact comparisons or parallels to a week, a month, or a decade ago is just going to give you a bigger Excedrin headache. :) As an example of this, just look at how volatile the forecast has been over the last 24 hours for really no other reason than the cap (yesterday) and the presence of outflow boundaries. We didn't have the outflow boundaries yesterday, today they're here, and that's a monkey wrench in the forecast. It really blows apart the idea of trying to draw perfect analogies between any two given days. Its tempting, but frought with peril :) Much less stressful, at least for me, is to just read the forecasts as best I can (with some good help) and assess each day as it comes. ou48A 05-30-2013, 09:57 AM The weather channel has a 6 of 10 on its TOR CON index for the OKC area. It was a 5 on May 20. Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 09:58 AM Dryline has pushed to: From Grant to Custer to Jackson counties now. A lot of multi-level clouds inhibiting full heating. But some average heating is taking place NW of the OKC metro where clouds are thinner. NC OK has some good heating taking place. Once again this map is a good indicator of heating levels: http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.SRAD.grad.png 6-700 range is near full heating and getting into 800s once afternoon rolls around. ou48A 05-30-2013, 10:05 AM http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_ICT_vis.jpg bchris02 05-30-2013, 10:10 AM The weather channel has a 6 of 10 on its TOR CON index for the OKC area. It was a 5 on May 20. Not good. I definitely have a feeling this is going to be a bad day. Hopefully whatever does far stays away from the most populated areas. BG918 05-30-2013, 10:16 AM You do realize you can have the exact same setup and not get the same result? Comparing to previous events is pointless if you are expecting to determine the outcome of the day. Last year April 12-13 looked to be a major tornado outbreak, and all of the ingredients were in place. And there were tornadoes (Norman was hit by a small one) but nothing like May 20, where one large tornado hit a populated area. If I remember correctly it was compared to the May 3 setup at the time. SoonerDave 05-30-2013, 10:26 AM Last year April 12-13 looked to be a major tornado outbreak, and all of the ingredients were in place. And there were tornadoes (Norman was hit by a small one) but nothing like May 20, where one large tornado hit a populated area. If I remember correctly it was compared to the May 3 setup at the time. That's precisely why its so important not to compare the "setup" of Day X with any other day, and why things like TWC's TORCON business just increase people's anxieties. SoonerDave 05-30-2013, 10:34 AM Not good. I definitely have a feeling this is going to be a bad day. Hopefully whatever does far stays away from the most populated areas. You have to kind of separate feelings from data. Yes, there's a chance of severe weather, maybe tornadoes. Don't let the TWC "TORCON" business heighten the anxiety. What's it really say? There's a nonzero chance of a tornado, just as there was last week. We knew that already. But TWC splatters it on a big, red map with bold TORCON letters just to...attract people to their big, red map with bold TORCON letters on it. No offense to folks who like/watch TWC, but I'm more an advocate of informing rather than inflaming. TWC calling some big attention to the difference between a TORCON of "5" and a "6" is precisely that, IMHO. ou48A 05-30-2013, 10:51 AM You have to kind of separate feelings from data. And that's exactly what the Tor con index does for very busy people and for people who have a low understanding of the weather…. And they make up the strong majority of people. ou48A 05-30-2013, 10:54 AM This apparently occurred in Norman last night http://i.imgur.com/Hdcmds1.jpg ou48A 05-30-2013, 10:57 AM http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg Isolated supercells with severe weather including very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected to develop near or just east of a dryline across mainly central Oklahoma between 2 and 4 pm this afternoon. Exact storm initiation times and locations may change. SoonerDave 05-30-2013, 10:58 AM And that exactly what the Tor con index does for very busy people and for people who have a low understanding of the weather…. And they make up the strong majority of people. Sorry, ou48A, I strongly disagree with that. It does nothing to aggregate information. It just inflames and frightens. We hashed this out before, so let's not do it again. We just have to agree to disagree. Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 11:03 AM I would not be surprised to see the MODERATE risk pushed back south and west. We will see in about half an hour. General clearing still taking place from N of the OKC metro back to the SW. Temperatures will be in the 80s by noon over much of C OK. venture 05-30-2013, 11:04 AM I would not be surprised to see the MODERATE risk pushed back south and west. We will see in about half an hour. General clearing still taking place from N of the OKC metro back to the SW. Temperatures will be in the 80s by noon over much of C OK. Completely agree. Bunty 05-30-2013, 11:23 AM I'll gladly settle for another rainy day/night, like last night, where rain was about all that happened heavily, though some people had to get some hail and high winds. Or in other words, where the OKC TV stations don't dwell full time to give out bad weather. What a supreme blessing when there is a thunderstorm and that isn't happening. An area just to the north and west of Stillwater got 4 to 5.28" of rain last night. ou48A 05-30-2013, 11:31 AM Sorry, ou48A, I strongly disagree with that. It does nothing to aggregate information. It just inflames and frightens. We hashed this out before, so let's not do it again. We just have to agree to disagree. You may disagree and that fine but it’s not up to you to decide what’s best for other people. The WX channel has a team of MET’s and others who have researched what it takes to reach the public. I just wouldn’t worry about it if I were you. NikonNurse 05-30-2013, 11:32 AM You know, I wish you guys would get more specific with when its going to rain, I need to mow my lawn..... ;) No, really, I've been quietly following you guys for a while now. I had my eye on you when storm went through my hometown of Piedmont a few years back and felt like I had hours to prepare before the storm actually hit. Last week, I work at SW 89th and May, I was following you guys and scattered like a cockroach a good 20 minutes before the news had us running. Plus you refrain from all of the hysteria.....Just wanted to give you a shout out and say thanks. ou48A 05-30-2013, 11:33 AM 11:25 AM NWS Norman @NWSNorman 1124am - experimental wx balloon from @NSSL shows the cap is fairly weak. Could get storms in the next hour or two. Stay very alert! #okwx ReplyRetweetFavorite Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 11:36 AM New risk area is nearly unchanged, slightly trimmed off of NC OK where there is ongoing convection. I feel like the SPC may be discounting to the SW near the Lawton area. venture 05-30-2013, 11:44 AM You may disagree and that fine but it’s not up to you to decide what’s best for other people. The WX channel has a team of MET’s and others who have researched what it takes to reach the public. I just wouldn’t worry about it if I were you. TORCON doesn't get into any specific or really help. They could put out a TORCON of 10 but if the cap is too tough, it is a worthless number. They don't release the components of what makes it up which doesn't help credibility any. The SPC's Significant Tornado index at least has the formula available to the public so we know what goes into it. This thread is about providing information, not hype. If TWC releases the criteria of the TORCON number so it can be vetted then we can discuss it then. In the meantime, keep the hype out of this thread. venture 05-30-2013, 11:47 AM http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0877.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 301644Z - 301815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS OVER SERN KS INTO FAR NRN OK HAS BEGUN TO TIGHTEN UP WITH UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FARTHER SE...MORNING CLUSTERS HAVE INCREASED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OK. WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POCKETS OF GREATER INSOLATION YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS SHOULD FURTHER BLOSSOM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA VWP DATA DO DEPICT VEER-BACK-VEER DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FOSTER CONTINUED CLUSTER/LINE MODE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 venture 05-30-2013, 11:51 AM http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-1.png Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 11:53 AM First legit echo along dryline has popped up NW of Lawton. venture 05-30-2013, 11:54 AM http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/30-2.png bchris02 05-30-2013, 12:02 PM So does this look like a classic setup where supercells move up I-44 into the metro? ou48A 05-30-2013, 12:04 PM TORCON doesn't get into any specific or really help. They could put out a TORCON of 10 but if the cap is too tough, it is a worthless number. They don't release the components of what makes it up which doesn't help credibility any. The SPC's Significant Tornado index at least has the formula available to the public so we know what goes into it. This thread is about providing information, not hype. If TWC releases the criteria of the TORCON number so it can be vetted then we can discuss it then. In the meantime, keep the hype out of this thread. The weather CH is has plenty of reputable meteorologists some with PHD’s. The Tor con index has value for some people. Because not everyone knows near as much about the weather as do most of us, and until Pete PM’s me and ask me to do otherwise I will continue to post the Tor con index. The WX CH understands that they must try different methods of getting people’s attention. Even the NWS has started using stronger language because their studies have determined that this is what it takes to motive some people. If it really bothers you just don’t pay any attention to it, or you can always put me on ignore if you wish.:) Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 12:10 PM The southern end of the complex of storms in NC OK is showing supercellic-structure. This could entail what type of storm formation we have along the entire dryline later. Linear complex with embedded supercells. The longer the dryline waits to fire the further south you go, the more potent storms will be able to become. venture 05-30-2013, 12:11 PM The weather CH is has plenty of reputable meteorologists some with PHD’s. The Tor con index has value for some people. Because not everyone knows near as much about the weather as do most of us, and until Pete PM’s me and ask me to do otherwise I will continue to post the Tor con index. The WX CH understands that they must try different methods of getting people’s attention. Even the NWS has started using stronger language because their studies have determined that this is what it takes to motive some people. If it really bothers you just don’t pay any attention to it, or you can always put me on ignore if you wish.:) The NWS using strong language is usually coupled with a description and explanation of what's going on. Not some arbitrary number. However, if you choose to behave this way that's on you. Enough time has been wasted on this and that's not what this thread is for. bandnerd 05-30-2013, 12:11 PM So does this look like a classic setup where supercells move up I-44 into the metro? 3770 venture 05-30-2013, 12:12 PM Ytf-lVkieWM bandnerd 05-30-2013, 12:14 PM I equate the TOR-CON index to women's clothing sizes. Arbitrarily selected numbers, the higher the number, the more alarmed they want you to be. jn1780 05-30-2013, 12:15 PM You may disagree and that fine but it’s not up to you to decide what’s best for other people. The WX channel has a team of MET’s and others who have researched what it takes to reach the public. I just wouldn’t worry about it if I were you. Yeah right, more like marketing and upper management who told meterologist to assign a number from 1 to 10 to an area. Reminds me of the terrorist attack alert level system that the government eventually changed because people stopped taking it seriously after awhile. But whatever. lol Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 12:19 PM Surprised no MD out for C OK yet. They must be really trying to figure out what is going to happen before they issue anything. Also I am surprised that Noble county is not under any warning right now. bandnerd 05-30-2013, 12:20 PM So...I'm supposed to take my hail-damaged car into a body shop for an estimate today at 3pm. Reschedule? :Smiley259 venture 05-30-2013, 12:25 PM http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0878.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 301720Z - 301945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TCU/CB HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. DESPITE FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD/TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF A VERY RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTENANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PERHAPS THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL OK. WITH AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN THE PURCELL PROFILER...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE INTO THE MID-LEVELS...SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 venture 05-30-2013, 12:28 PM Very strong wording on that MCD. Please stay alert. We are chatting through the event so feel free to drop in. bandnerd 05-30-2013, 12:31 PM Okay, I keep seeing the phrase "discrete supercells" thrown around, and I've pretended to know what that means, but I don't. Mind explaining that one to me? venture 05-30-2013, 12:32 PM Okay, I keep seeing the phrase "discrete supercells" thrown around, and I've pretended to know what that means, but I don't. Mind explaining that one to me? Instead of a cluster of storms together...discrete supercell are your individual cells spaced apart with strong mesocyclones. Anonymous. 05-30-2013, 12:32 PM I am grabbing lunch and will be in the chat in a bit. Theta-E right now along the dryline is insanely juicy. The later the dryline waits the more potential this event has. Watch for winds to start backing and becoming favorable later this afternoon if everything holds tight and allows the heating to continue. bandnerd 05-30-2013, 12:36 PM Instead of a cluster of storms together...discrete supercell are your individual cells spaced apart with strong mesocyclones. Sweet -- I always wondered what they called those? It seems like they are always a whole lot worse when they are alone. I just called them "individual" supercells in my head. ou48A 05-30-2013, 12:37 PM The NWS using strong language is usually coupled with a description and explanation of what's going on. Not some arbitrary number. However, if you choose to behave this way that's on you. Enough time has been wasted on this and that's not what this thread is for.I agree, let it be posted and then move on and ignore it if you don’t find it useful…. But please know there are those who do find it useful because it’s quick and simple. soonerguru 05-30-2013, 12:39 PM Talk me down: the position of the frontal boundary / dry line seems eerily similar to May 20, except air temp is even hotter. My daughter gets out of school at 2:30 in OKC. Pros: what do you think? venture 05-30-2013, 12:42 PM Talk me down: the position of the frontal boundary / dry line seems eerily similar to May 20, except air temp is even hotter. My daughter gets out of school at 2:30 in OKC. Pros: what do you think? Hard to say how crazy it'll get...but expect OKC area to be impacted starting around 2PM today. ou48A 05-30-2013, 12:43 PM Mesoscale Discussion 878< Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0877.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0878.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 301720Z - 301945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TCU/CB HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. DESPITE FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD/TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF A VERY RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTENANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PERHAPS THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL OK. WITH AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN THE PURCELL PROFILER...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE INTO THE MID-LEVELS...SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. venture 05-30-2013, 12:50 PM here we go... * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARNEGIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. venture 05-30-2013, 12:50 PM Watch is up... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 TORNADO WATCH 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OKC005-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-049-051-063-067- 069-073-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111- 113-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141-143-145-147-310300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0252.130530T1755Z-130531T0300Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MARSHALL MAYES MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON |