NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 6m 18Z sounding is in, and we have a pretty stout cap still in place. This will delay any storm development close to central OK for a while

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 6m 18Z sounding is in, and we have a pretty stout cap still in place. This will delay any storm development close to central OK for a while

If the cap breaks, are we looking at immediate drops like we saw last week?

If the cap breaks, are we looking at immediate drops like we saw last week?

3765

If the cap breaks, are we looking at immediate drops like we saw last week?

Someone with more knowledge than me can answer, but understanding of what I'm seeing from NWS says no. They're less confident about tornado chances in this part of the state. My guess is they're leaning more towards a linear event by the times storms reach this part of the state. The dryline seems to be stuck out in the east TX panhandle. The same mantra applies...Don't be scared, be aware.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oMa5EzF97NA

Right now the cloud cover in C and W OK will deter supercells. However in the TX panhandle it is clear and the dryline is firing right now. Supercells from this area will move east into W OK.

If rapid clearing takes place inthe W half of OK we could see storms fire. But right now that looks unlikely. Look for a linesr event tonight in OKC at this point.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/...e=201305291857

THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WILL BE
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM CDT IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALLS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 75
MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN. TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE BY THE TIME
THEY MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0856.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHERN OK


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 291906Z - 292100Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT


SUMMARY...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
TX...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OK. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...THE SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR AMA
SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF MAF. STRONG HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PORTION OF WEST TX EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 2500-3000 J/KG. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST TX WHERE INCREASED DIURNAL
HEATING HAS BEGUN. THE RESULT IS A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF WEAK
CAP AND STRONG INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WHICH MAY
PROMOTE RAPID THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION ONCE INITIATION OCCURS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.


..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013

It's looking more and more like today the metro area will be fine, but tomorrow and especially Friday could be bad. Basically a repeat of the last setup where the three days go from bad, worse, to worst.

It's looking more and more like today the metro area will be fine, but tomorrow and especially Friday could be bad. Basically a repeat of the last setup where the three days go from bad, worse, to worst.

For the life of me I'm not sure where people are getting that assumption. Nothing being put out there is indicating that.

It's looking more and more like today the metro area will be fine, but tomorrow and especially Friday could be bad. Basically a repeat of the last setup where the three days go from bad, worse, to worst.



TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON Index - weather.com (http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-torcon-index)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-2.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/kfdr_20130529_195731.png

For the life of me I'm not sure where people are getting that assumption. Nothing being put out there is indicating that.

I can think of a place, but the censors and probably moderators wouldn't like my answer.

That is the storm SW of Altus right now. Hail core building in it.

For the life of me I'm not sure where people are getting that assumption. Nothing being put out there is indicating that.
http://investmeinmymotley.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/chickenlittle-e1322754718668.jpg

It's looking more and more like today the metro area will be fine, but tomorrow and especially Friday could be bad. Basically a repeat of the last setup where the three days go from bad, worse, to worst.

Respectfully, if you have substantive links to discussions suggesting this, please share them. Otherwise, this panicky prediction is not particularly helpful information.

Respectfully, if you have substantive links to discussions suggesting this, please share them. Otherwise, this panicky prediction is not particularly helpful information.

A-freakin-MEN

Watch incoming for OKC metro area back to the South.

Until 11PM tonight...

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GRANT HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MARSHALL MCCLAIN
MURRAY NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE

Watch incoming for OKC metro area back to the South.

What kind? Tornado?

Nws storm prediction center norman ok
350 pm cdt wed may 29 2013

tornado watch 244 is in effect until 1100 pm cdt for the
following locations

okc005-013-017-019-027-029-037-047-049-051-053-063-067-069-071-
073-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-133-
137-300400-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0244.130529t2050z-130530t0400z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

atoka bryan canadian
carter cleveland coal
creek garfield garvin
grady grant hughes
jefferson johnston kay
kingfisher lincoln logan
love marshall mcclain
murray noble okfuskee
oklahoma osage pawnee
payne pontotoc pottawatomie
seminole stephens

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0244_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...WW
241...WW 242...WW 243...


DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE CAP HAS LOCALLY ERODED. CURRENT
VAD/PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE
WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE MIXED STORM MODES. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOW HEADS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

Respectfully, if you have substantive links to discussions suggesting this, please share them. Otherwise, this panicky prediction is not particularly helpful information.

Like I said, he needs to step away from OKCtalk weather thread and pop a Zanex in. BChris, you're not helping people that are already panicky about situations like this by providing disinformation.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-5.png

Well, that escalated quickly.

Rick Smith ‏@ounwcm 347pm - this is NOT the same situation as last week's OKC metro tornado watch. More linear storms. Mainly hail and wind. Moving in 5-7pm

4pm - we will be watching for small brief circulations embedded within lines of storms, but don't expect a tornado warning for every one.
by NWS Norman via twitter (http://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/339848970098593792) 4:01 PM

This is what they are talking about on the little small circulations that need to be watched...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-6.png

Just got home.

Looks like garbage waves of storms coming up from SW OK. Could turn into something as they move into a bit warmer air in C OK. But Doesn't look like supercells are going to happen at this time.

Just got home.

Looks like garbage waves of storms coming up from SW OK. Could turn into something as they move into a bit warmer air in C OK. But Doesn't look like supercells are going to happen at this time.

Nope I think we are out of supercell mode and stuck with embedded brief spin ups that will have little to no advance warning. Joy oh joy.

I'll take the risk of an F0 anyday over and F3-5!

CH 4 & CH 9 said there is a chance that a storm could break off from the main line and posed a larger tornado threat?

CH 4 & CH 9 said there is a chance that a storm could break off from the main line and posed a larger tornado threat?

Borderline wishcasting.

But anything that does become discrete will have a greater chance to rotate. Especially if it is ahead of the main complex.

We can't be too hard on BChris....there WAS a link posted earlier to TWC's TOR-CON which reads a lot like what he wrote. Maybe he saw it there?

We can't be too hard on BChris....there WAS a link posted earlier to TWC's TOR-CON which reads a lot like what he wrote. Maybe he saw it there?

Well, he should provide a link to be a rhyme for his reason to speak like that.

Well, he should provide a link to be a rhyme for his reason to speak like that.

The weather.com (TWC) app is the most popular weather app for iOS and Android phones. I'm sure a lot of people see that stuff and don't even realize who's really saying what. In general though, I would agree that a source should be provided.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-8.png

CH 4 & CH 9 said there is a chance that a storm could break off from the main line and posed a larger tornado threat?

Isn't that almost always a chance, though?

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-10.png

The weather.com (TWC) app is the most popular weather app for iOS and Android phones. I'm sure a lot of people see that stuff and don't even realize who's really saying what. In general though, I would agree that a source should be provided.

I use WeatherBug. TWC is overrated IMO.

I use WeatherBug. TWC is overrated IMO.

Is there gonna be any hail in NW OKC with these storms?

Doesn't look like any significant hail. Wind is the big threat.

It looks like the line entering Western Oklahoma is losing its umpf. Did line #1 take the juice out of the air?

No hail is a very good thing... Just a good old soaking rain to make the lakes runneth over is what we need.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0866.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK


CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...


VALID 292358Z - 300130Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL OVER NRN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH
244...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SCNTRL OK.


DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL OK FROM JUST SOUTH OF BLACKWELL INTO THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA. THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS BOWED
OUT AND ACCELERATED TO 50+ KT...POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO SCNTRL OK THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND A WINDOW
ALSO REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE
BOWING SEGMENT MOVING INTO WCNTRL OK APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY THE LEADING LINE...BUT
MAY STILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND THROUGH 01Z.


..DIAL.. 05/29/2013

Anyone see that awesome shelf cloud in western Oklahoma??? I just a pic of it on News9 and it was badass!!!!!!!!

Unless something develops around Lawton/Altus area again, it looks like we're done for the night. Time to hex the tornado watch or are we looking at redevelopment?

Unless something develops around Lawton/Altus area again, it looks like we're done for the night. Time to hex the tornado watch or are we looking at redevelopment?

Tailend charlie is rotating with a wall cloud right now. So it isn't done yet.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/29-13.png

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

First TOR Warning...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
754 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BECKHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 751 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF DELHI...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.


IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SENTINEL...CARTER...DELHI AND RETROP.

What do things look like for tomorrow?

The NOAA website is showing the dry line further east and thus a much greater chance of tornadoes in the metro area than the TV stations did at their 6PM newscasts.

I'm watching the tornado program on OETA and wondering if any of those guys are Venture :)

What do things look like for tomorrow?

The NOAA website is showing the dry line further east and thus a much greater chance of tornadoes in the metro area than the TV stations did at their 6PM newscasts.

Things are going to be in flux until tonight's activity dies off and the boundaries setup where they will.

Severe cell moving through Clinton is backbuilding, may clip OKC.

Storm to the west is growing and the line is extending down further to the south. Damaging wind is probably main threat tonight. Low level jet (LLJ) is cranking out there pretty good. Gusts will over 40 mph right now in Norman over to Minco and south. All this will keep feeding into the storms out there.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0872.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL OK


CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...


VALID 300325Z - 300430Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. THOUGH
OVERALL TORNADO THREAT HAS BECOME MARGINAL...SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST BEYOND 04Z.
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...TORNADO WATCH 244 MIGHT NEED TO BE
REPLACED BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRIOR TO 04Z.


DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING AN EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS
FROM NERN OK WSWWD THROUGH NCNTRL OK THEN SWD THROUGH WCNTRL OK. A
CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ALSO MOVING NWD THROUGH SCNTRL OK. THE MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN WITH N-S ORIENTED LINE ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND
SOME SWD BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THE LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND WILL PROVIDE MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THESE
STORMS...FAVORING FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO CNTRL OK WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN
THE LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES...DAMAGING WIND
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH SOME ROTATION
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NWD FROM SRN
OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO NEXT 2-3 HOURS.


..DIAL.. 05/30/2013




ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0249_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1045
PM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST OF MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244. WATCH NUMBER 244 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1045 PM CDT.


DISCUSSION...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET THROUGH THE 50-70
KT RANGE. THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT YET BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

Take any forecast maps put out tonight and throw them into the garbage. On going convection is going to completely change things around until they dissipate. We have at least two boundaries floating around right now. One in SW OK and another in central OK. So everything is going to be up in the air until they settle in a certain position for tomorrow.

^^your post tells me that I don't need to go back to the previous page to realize some other poster was wondering why the freak they put us in a sever t storm watch til 6am.

Me thinks they're being over cautious...