So sorry to hear this. Hope you're doing OK.

Large swaths of general SLIGHT risk for the next few days. Chances of storms firing are limited (but increase each day) - but if anything does fire, it will likely be severe.

Per usual blah blah - be aware of the weather. Most of OKC is on high alert anyways.

Anon has it summed up really well. Looking at a 5 day stretch of severe weather in the state (well 7 if you count the last two days out west). New 12Z models are coming in and will post a fresh discussion once those are done.

http://youtu.be/LobCDYO78Us

5/27/2013 TIV2 (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) Is Hit By WEDGE Tornado in Kansas - YouTube (http://youtu.be/LobCDYO78Us)

Venture, is there any idea of when we might see blistering heat again? The endless cloud cover is just not working out.

Venture, is there any idea of when we might see blistering heat again? The endless cloud cover is just not working out.

Hopefully never. :-P I'll take 70s/80s every day this summer if we can get away with it.

However, it does look like 90s start to show up after June 7th on the long range models...with some low 100s in SW OK. Of course it all depends on how long this storm pattern sticks around. Keeping the extreme heat at bay is our best shot at breaking free of the drought.

Yea I have no idea why anyone has anything to complain about.

Highs in the 80s with sustained moisture chances is a real treat heading into June.

Yea I have no idea why anyone has anything to complain about.

Highs in the 80s with sustained moisture chances is a real treat heading into June.

Yep….. Lake Thunderbird still needs about 2.5 feet more water to be full

Yep….. Lake Thunderbird still needs about 2.5 feet more of water to be full

Which is nice, but we all know once the heat kicks in and people start watering more to compensate it's going to drop quick.

http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/images/lakes/THUN.lakepage.gif

Upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow, including the western OKC Metro area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN OK...MUCH OF CNTRL KS
INTO SCNTRL NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SWRN TX INTO SD/SRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SECONDARY UPSTREAM CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER TOWARD AZ. WHILE THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FLOW...IT APPEARS STRENGTHENING AT MID LEVELS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFYING FLOW AT 500MB OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY
LATE MORNING WITH 50-60KT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DRYLINE INTO
WRN OK/CNTRL KS BY 21Z. WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW...TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IS ON PAR WITH GFS.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG/EAST OF
THE DRYLINE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
STRONG...MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SPEED MAX ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. INHIBITION AND SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING ALONG A BROAD SWATH OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON DESPITE APPROACHING SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS...ARCING ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX. THESE STORMS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY MATURES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR ENEWD MOVEMENT
ACROSS KS/OK BENEATH EJECTING SPEED MAX. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH 50-70KT CORE
FOCUSING FROM NRN OK INTO SERN NEB.

AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS LLJ
SHIFTS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM SD INTO SRN MN...ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM
FRONT.

http://youtu.be/LobCDYO78Us

5/27/2013 TIV2 (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) Is Hit By WEDGE Tornado in Kansas - YouTube (http://youtu.be/LobCDYO78Us)

That is amazing footage. AMAZING!

wow

Dryline looks to be firing in NE TX pandhandle.

Yup, one little cell out there. Instability is pretty exceptional right now, CAPE of 5000 j/kg on mesoanalysis.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Venture, does the failure/malfunction of the GOES-EAST satellite affect storm forecasting here in the Midwest significantly? Or is the hit bigger for tracking Atlantic hurricanes?

That is amazing footage. AMAZING!

wow

I didn't know what a TIV was so I put it in Google and it returned this Wikipedia article. Tornado Intercept Vehicle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_Intercept_Vehicle)

I'm beginning to see these less as just a gimmick and more as vehicles that will aide in better understanding of these tornadoes. I saw Reed Timmer and his Dominator as pure gimmick until this last storm. Timmer did an excellent job in the field and that car can go where others simply cannot.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0838.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...NW OK...S-CNTRL
KS


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 281928Z - 282030Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT


SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG A RETREATING
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME SIGNIFICANT
HAIL AND WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.


DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM A WEAKENING LEE LOW ACROSS S-CNTRL.
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS LEE LOW AND PULL THE DRYLINE
NWWD. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. AMA SURFACE OBSERVATION SHOWED A CHANGE FROM 91/34 AT 17Z TO
90/57 AT 18Z AFTER THE DRYLINE RETREATED THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z AMA
SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND REVEALS LITTLE TO
NO CINH REMAINING AS WELL AS STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE OF 8.7 DEG C/KM AND SBCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG.


VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS CU AND A FEW CB ALONG THE
RETREATING DRYLINE...INDICATING CONVECTION INITIATION IS LIKELY
SOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND SVR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR HAIL/WINDS. SOME HAIL MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT...EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. ADDITIONALLY...
GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 30 DEG F...SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS -- I.E. IN
EXCESS OF 65 KT -- APPEAR POSSIBLE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES WITH EWD STORM MOTION BRINGING THEM
INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY S-CNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/28/2013

Venture, does the failure/malfunction of the GOES-EAST satellite affect storm forecasting here in the Midwest significantly? Or is the hit bigger for tracking Atlantic hurricanes?

Shouldn't be much of an issue. GOES-14 was reactivated and moved over to cover GOES-EAST or GOES-13. The biggest problem will be if GOES-15 fails out west again, which it did recently and GOES-13 had to move over to cover.

[QUOTE=zookeeper;648249]I didn't know what a TIV was so I put it in Google and it returned this Wikipedia article. Tornado Intercept Vehicle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_Intercept_Vehicle)

I thought the Storm Chasers show on Discovery was pretty interesting television, although I don't get the impression that the broader meteorological community has much use for Casey or Timmer.

Cell in Beaver County is now severe, moving NE.

Additional cells trying to do something near Enid, in Major County and into Dewey County.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0234_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE


* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 233...


DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 18Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED THE
PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHEN COUPLED
WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INITIALLY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE HIGH LCL ENVIRONMENT. THIS THREAT COULD INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS...AND AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.

Uh-oh, that big cluster SE of Lubbock looks like its heading towards the metro. Storms later this evening?

Possible but unlikely, Praedura. Those are about 300 mi out, and if they top out at around 20-25mph, they'd have to hold together for something like 12-15 hours to sniff the OKC area. Don't think the air is as unstable getting closer to central OK as it is out west, so even if they made it, not sure how rough and tumble they'd be.

Tornado warning
national weather service amarillo tx
333 pm cdt tue may 28 2013

the national weather service in amarillo has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northeastern beaver county in the panhandle of oklahoma...

* until 400 pm cdt

* at 328 pm cdt...trained weather spotters and national weather
service meteorologists were tracking a tornado. This tornado was
located 5 miles east of mocane...or 6 miles northeast of beaver.
Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving northeast at 10 mph.

Radar from Dodge City KS makes that storm near Beaver look like its moving NW. Interesting direction.

Yup, dryline is at an awkward angle for this time of year and is nearly stationary - the storm is actually altering the boundary with its rotation/outflow. We saw this happen a month or so back in SW OK with a storm or two that kept following paths through Lawton.


Meanwhile, there is a monster supercell west of Horton, KS. That is likely putting out a tornado.

Large tornado near Corning, KS...pic from Twitter:

ChaserCentral ‏@ChaserCentral (https://twitter.com/ChaserCentral)3m (https://twitter.com/ChaserCentral/status/339495164882059264)
Tornado view from northeast of Corning, KS via @jbergman89 (https://twitter.com/jbergman89) pic.twitter.com/Udivheqgwv (http://t.co/Udivheqgwv)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BLYftq8CQAA20Ms.jpg:large

Anon, just saw a breaking news tweet that said radar in Topeka is indicating a mile wide tornado...

That is a chaser's dream right there. Large wedge in a field with a stationary supercell. Should be some very nice pictures/videos from this popping up.

Report is the large wedge lifted before it got near the city of Corning, but a new tornado is now on the ground away from town. That's how it is suppose to happen.

So does the metro area look to be the bullseye for tomorrow's tornadic systems like it was May 19-20th? Could we possibly be looking at a second F4/5 hitting the greater OKC area in the same year?

So does the metro area look to be the bullseye for tomorrow's tornadic systems like it was May 19-20th? Could we possibly be looking at a second F4/5 hitting the greater OKC area in the same year?

The metro wasn't really in the bullseye the last time. Huge area of real estate is in the risk are tomorrow. We won't know details until we get into tomorrow afternoon.

In the mean time...large tornado in KS: Live video from Matt Grantham LiveStormsNOW.com - ChaserTV Video Player (http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=14613&C=20643&O=10605)

News 9 has OKC under a "High" risk for tomorrow. From what it looks like, this isn't going to be good.

News 9 has OKC under a "High" risk for tomorrow. From what it looks like, this isn't going to be good.

Bchris...not being rude, but you need to take a zanex or something ;-)

News 9 has OKC under a "High" risk for tomorrow. From what it looks like, this isn't going to be good.

These media idiots are throwing "High Risk" around too much. May 20th...WAS NOT a high risk. High risk entails widespread significant severe weather. From a meteorological point of view, they are just simply hyping for ratings. If you blow the horn on "high risk" too much people won't care...and they'll continue to care even less about Slight Risk days when significant weather can still happen. That monster wedge in Kansas...is in a slight risk.

These media idiots are throwing "High Risk" around too much. May 20th...WAS NOT a high risk. High risk entails widespread significant severe weather. From a meteorological point of view, they are just simply hyping for ratings. If you blow the horn on "high risk" too much people won't care...and they'll continue to care even less about Slight Risk days when significant weather can still happen. That monster wedge in Kansas...is in a slight risk.

News 9 was showing their bright-pink "Enhanced" risk for Cleveland and southern Oklahoma county on May 20th. I think they nailed it on that one.

News 9 was showing their bright-pink "Enhanced" risk for Cleveland and southern Oklahoma county on May 20th. I think they nailed it on that one.

The only image I saw was the following:

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/935483_659921464033738_584307348_n.jpg

Even then they busted with an incredibly oversized High Risk for what was a clear Moderate Risk day. They may have popped Enhanced up there after things started to get going. However compare it to the actual outcome...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130520_rpts_filtered.gif

You could argue Moderate was right for Oklahoma since there were a good number of severe reports, but the concentration wasn't all that great.

I'll refer back to the SPC's criteria...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day1_seetext.jpg

So baseline High Risk we are talking a 30% probability of having a tornado within 25 miles of any one point. We had 4...Four...tornadoes that day. 60% probability of having winds over 58 mph within 25 miles of any one point. I see a dozen or so wind reports, but still nothing extremely concentrated.

This is just a problem with local media taking over an redefining products that we've become use to for decades.

The risk ratings system can be a little confusing to the general public…. This is why IMHO is important to view the breakdown of the categorical risk….

But this is why I like the Weather Channels TOR CON index.
+ is simple for even the lower end weather information people to understand.

00Z NAM Update...


Evening NAM run shows a very complicated forecast for tomorrow. While NAM has been the least consistent with this storm, still feel it should be reviewed. It has storms fire in the TX PH by 10AM tomorrow and quickly example through all of Western OK by 1PM. It then keeps storms over Western and Central OK through much of the afternoon. By late evening we are looking at storms remaining mainly along the I-44 corridor from TUL to LAW. If we see an early show like this it would definitely temper the amount of instability in the atmosphere. However, it does have a window during the afternoon for high 1km EHI and 1km Helicity over Central and parts of SW OK. If we are able to remain relatively convection free and get isolated supercell development during this time period, we could have a very good shot of seeing several tornadoes develop.


We'll see what the 00Z GFS and ECMWF say later on. Main jist right now is tomorrow isn't a clear cut forecast as it appears. So far not a lot of convection out there that might cause issues tomorrow morning, but if we have an early show then everything gets screwed up and makes it a grey hair day trying to figure out what is going to happen.

10:24 PM

NWS Norman @NWSNorman

If you live in OK/W N TX, you should be weather aware Wed. Tornado potential is increasing, especially across western OK. #okwx #texomawx

]http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/5/29/cccc96d9-d48c-44bf-a785-eae3bd863b2d.jpg
Updated severe weather threat for Wed. Higher tornado potential in the orange. http://ow.ly/i/2e1Aa (http://t.co/EA7v2eb05g) #okwx (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash) http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BLZh9UwCIAE32Ig.jpg (http://t.co/UgycmRox3F)

No real change with the GFS tonight. Initial tornado threat west but it moves east into the Central OK by late afternoon/early evening. GFS keeps any precip off until early afternoon out west, so we'll need to see which one is right come morning.

Plan for probably a long day. The chat room is already up and going so feel free to drop in anytime tomorrow.

I have an increasing concern tomorrow for the middle western half of OK.

Venture has pretty much said it - if morning crapvection sticks around too long or lays down a muddy cloud deck, then we may have nothing to worry about. However if the convection early is shoved off fast enough and early enough - I see a dry slot forming in SW into W and C OK. This scenario gives us near max heating and the dryline fires off a line of supercells. The scary thing is the dryline could be firing them off well into the evening if multiple rounds are permitted.

Tornadoes look likely IMO. And hail will be gorilla mode. Again this hinges on early morning and early afternoon conditions.

It is just a hunch, but if tomorrow provides the heating conditions that I forsee, it could give us our first PDS this year.


I am actually scheduled to be in Moore tomorrow for work, so I may not be able to hop on here as often as I'd like and I will be extremely limited on weather data. I am hoping we get rescheduled as I don't wanna miss this forecast.

Be alert tomorrow!

I think the 'Severe Weather Risk Factor' should be as follows

Slight: Lightning, Heavy rain, damaging winds, hail up to golf balls
Moderate: All of the above + hail up to baseballs + isolated tornadoes
High: All of the above + hail up to grapefruit + a few tornadoes (some strong)
Enhanced: All of the above + tornado outbreak with numerous violent F4/F5 tornadoes expected

I think the 'Severe Weather Risk Factor' should be as follows

Slight: Lightning, Heavy rain, damaging winds, hail up to golf balls
Moderate: All of the above + hail up to baseballs + isolated tornadoes
High: All of the above + hail up to grapefruit + a few tornadoes (some strong)
Enhanced: All of the above + tornado outbreak with numerous violent F4/F5 tornadoes expected

Well these are Convective Outlooks...not Risk Factors.

Moderate Risk has been expanded to include all areas west of a line from Newkirk to Pawnee to Chandler to Sulphur to Ardmore...including nearly the entire OKC area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


VALID 291200Z - 301200Z


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHERN
TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...


...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE
TILT/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND MO VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
STRENGTHENING/BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY COINCIDENT
WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS
LIKELY TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/FAR SOUTHWEST KS...WITH ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SPATIALLY BROAD WARM
SECTOR...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT.


CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT/LOCATIONS OF SURFACE BASED
DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. FOR ONE...THE PLAUSIBILITY
OF RELATIVELY EARLY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OK/NORTH TX BY THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT IN QUESTION...AND COULD POSSIBLY
BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE NAM BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME. EVEN
SO...APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RELATIVELY
EARLY TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE INCREASING SURFACE BASED DEEP
CONVECTION LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE WARM SECTOR /PENDING CLOUD COVER AND SPECIFIC
DESTABILIZATION/...BUT A MORE CERTAIN SCENARIO MAY BE FOR SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


REGARDLESS...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF CENTRAL OK
IN ADDITION TO WESTERN KS. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A COUPLE
POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT ACCENTUATED BY A
DIURNALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. A MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE IS
MOST PROBABLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
BACKING MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING OR A MIXED-MODE /BEYOND THE
INITIAL SEVERAL HOURS/ AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE/CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF KS/OK AND PERHAPS NORTH TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND
SOME TORNADO RISK /ESPECIALLY GIVEN A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL JET/ CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST LATE EVENING IF NOT PARTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT.


FARTHER NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ AND A SUBSEQUENT GENERAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND NEB
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING...STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR MAY CONSOLIDATE/GROW
UPSCALE AS THEY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NEB TONIGHT WITH
A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK.


MEANWHILE...OTHER MORE ISOLATED...SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
DRYLINE INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TX. OTHER SEVERE
TSTMS ARE ALSO PROBABLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AS
CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

Long lived supercell out in the Panhandle is once again tornado warned and this time for the Pampa area. If it still holds together, it'll impact Roger Mills and Ellis Counties.

Only update to the SPC Day 1 with this is the addition of a 15% Tornado area out in Western OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...NW TX...WRN TO CNTRL OK AND WRN TO CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WRN TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADOES LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS SWD INTO NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST KS...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE
ALLOWING FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TIMING
OF INITIATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 18Z BUT THIS APPEARS
TO BE TOO EARLY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELL INITIATION WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 20Z...MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE. AS CELLS INITIATE...THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE
RAPID CELL INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAKE
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DODGE CITY...CHILDRESS AND LAWTON
SHOW LOADED-GUN SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM. THIS
IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT THAT
INITIATES. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME DOMINANT. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE
DRYLINE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR DODGE CITY SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TO AROUND CHILDRESS WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY
BACKED. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS...A 15 PERCENT
TORNADO CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED FROM SW KS SWD INTO NW TX WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING. SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS.

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FROM WRN AND CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO
NE KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS.

Venture, question for you...

Given that the outlooks posted indicate all the ingredients are in place for another round of severe weather, there was one thing I was curious about and thought I'd ask you if it makes any difference in the broader scheme of things. Apologies in advance if the question seems dumb.

Last week, we had the front, the dryline, and the low-pressure center converging at or near Canadian County (the "triple-point," if I'm not mistaken), and storms fired very near the bullseye of that area. In the current scenario, we have the dryline to the west, but the low is farther north in SE CO or SW KS, and the front is tilted well behind the dryline. So, my question is this - how, if at all, does the difference in location of the low and the front affect the storm outlook in Oklahoma? Obviously we have the basic "powederkeg" ingredients in place, but it seemed to me that the location of the low farther north this times mitigated things even if only slightly. I'm not thinking so much in terms of whether there will be storms, but more along the lines of whether the location of the low drives to some extent the intensity of the storms in its immediate proximity.

Again, if the question is just exceedingly goofy, my apologies for muddying the waters. Just curious.

There's a lot of cloud cover out there this morning. Wind's still pretty fierce, though.

I think some over-think the outlooks, risk definitions, etc. Really, just come here, Venture and Anon will tell you if you need to be worried. Don't listen to the weather guys on TV, they like to hype stuff up for ratings. You have to live your life, just live it a little more aware of the weather around here than in some other areas. It's easy to be on edge after what happened last week, but like in any crisis situation, remaining calm keeps you alive.

Despite the severe weather, I can say that my garden is flourishing this year. These mild temps are fantastic. Let's keep that going as long as possible. I've already pulled tomatoes and have three zukes happily growing away.

Venture, question for you...

Given that the outlooks posted indicate all the ingredients are in place for another round of severe weather, there was one thing I was curious about and thought I'd ask you if it makes any difference in the broader scheme of things. Apologies in advance if the question seems dumb.

Last week, we had the front, the dryline, and the low-pressure center converging at or near Canadian County (the "triple-point," if I'm not mistaken), and storms fired very near the bullseye of that area. In the current scenario, we have the dryline to the west, but the low is farther north in SE CO or SW KS, and the front is tilted well behind the dryline. So, my question is this - how, if at all, does the difference in location of the low and the front affect the storm outlook in Oklahoma? Obviously we have the basic "powederkeg" ingredients in place, but it seemed to me that the location of the low farther north this times mitigated things even if only slightly. I'm not thinking so much in terms of whether there will be storms, but more along the lines of whether the location of the low drives to some extent the intensity of the storms in its immediate proximity.

Again, if the question is just exceedingly goofy, my apologies for muddying the waters. Just curious.

The triple point can be a very favorable area to help give things an extra bit of lift and spin. If I'm looking to chase, that's the first thing I look for because I know the localized area is going to be better there. Today we won't have that but that's when we look at other influences. The triple point gives us a good area of winds converging. So today as we look at surface maps and upper air conditions we see just about the entire state has Southeast winds - or backed winds. So now we have to look upstairs to see if the winds converge or have a westerly component...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20130529.12.gif

This is the Norman sounding from an hour ago and its definitely showing the directional shear we look for. So to answer your questions before I go on about the sounding, yeah...the triple point can play a role in the intensity of storms but only if the remaining environment isn't able to do it itself.

So back to the sounding, this thing is pretty loaded today. We see a relatively weak cap, but should be stout enough to hold off convection for a bit. We got great low level moisture with no much of a temperate spread (red and green next to each other) at the surface which is also giving us very favorable LCLs to around 500m up. LI, TT, KI, SW, and CAPE are all in that category to promote storms today. CAPE being 1500 already shows its only going to take a few hours of heating to get it spiked up pretty good. HEL looks really good, but we have to keep in mind that it increases over night and starts to slow down some during the day. So that will ease off a bit. EHI is in the same boat but looks good.

Then of course one of the big things is the storm motions for today. Looks like Northeast at 25 mph. That's a good thing to where its fast enough to keep anything from sitting of an area too long, but slow enough to give ample warning time today.

There's a lot of cloud cover out there this morning. Wind's still pretty fierce, though.

I think some over-think the outlooks, risk definitions, etc. Really, just come here, Venture and Anon will tell you if you need to be worried. Don't listen to the weather guys on TV, they like to hype stuff up for ratings. You have to live your life, just live it a little more aware of the weather around here than in some other areas. It's easy to be on edge after what happened last week, but like in any crisis situation, remaining calm keeps you alive.

Despite the severe weather, I can say that my garden is flourishing this year. These mild temps are fantastic. Let's keep that going as long as possible. I've already pulled tomatoes and have three zukes happily growing away.

Yeah the clouds should keep things slow to destabilize around here, but out west and north its already clear. I'm with you though, these temps can keep going. I'm regretting not doing a garden this year because it would have been the best one in several years.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

This is the Norman sounding from an hour ago...


Thanks for the info, Venture, and thanks for answering my probably odd question. After watching that skew chart video you have here, its much easier to see at a basic level how unstable things are based on that sounding chart.

So I decided to jump in the chat early today...but will be back and forth until things get going: Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

Clouds beginning to thin out in SW OK, There is already clearing just W of OKC metro in a smaller corridor.


Dewpoints are very soupy. This evening could be serious business if we get ample heating.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0854.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY


VALID 291633Z - 291900Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT


SUMMARY...TCU ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR AMA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA HAS BECOME UNCAPPED WITH 3000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT TO THE
EAST OF THE CU FIELD...WHICH IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SUGGEST THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GROW/ORGANIZE.


..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013

Looks like SPC has reduced the tornado threat down quite a bit for the metro and pulled the area of more considerable tornado probability back to the west due to uncertainties regarding storm mode and also current cloud cover inhibiting development. Count me as fine with this.

Watch is up...


OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS TILLMAN WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

I have heard some say tomorrow is going to be quite a bit worse than today for Central Oklahoma.

With the last system, Saturday was supposed to be the bad day initially, but as each day came, the next got more and more dire. It looks that is to be the case this time until the cold front pushes through on Saturday.

Watch is up...


OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS TILLMAN WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

Still cracks me up that the filter thinks Wa****a is a swear word.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0239_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE


* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


&&


DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY E OF THE DRYLINE IN
RESPONSE TO THE EWD MIGRATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG WITH A DECREASING CAP. DESPITE SOME VEER-BACK TENDENCIES IN
OBSERVED AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING SUPPORTING A RISK FOR TORNADOES /SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.