The kicker for that storm is that its following a northwesterly flow, which I believe is generally less conducive to the very violent weather in the vein of what happened this last weekend. When we get southerly flows, that's when things get dicey. Not at all saying the former cannot produce tornadoes/violent weather, just that it isn't quite as likely. From what I understand, that current Oregon storm kicks off the weekend, but then a southerly flow returns late Saturday or into Sunday/Monday.

Venture or Anon can surely correct if I've got this wrong :)

The storm you're talking about for the weekend is in the Wyoming area. The really cold/wet low is still in the NW and not progged( fancy weather talk ) to move out until sat or so, giving it a possible mid-week Oklahoma eta. All of that can change with successive model runs of course. We'll see what they say on sat and sun.

It's simply amazing all the weather info that's available. Must be something in the water up here but the Portland NWS office has very detailed( and usually lengthy ) forecaster discussions as to how they arrive at the forecast. I love it when the models are all skewed and they end of punting by saying they'll stick with climo( historical climatology )! At least they'll admit it!

I don't want the tornadoes but I would love some of your warmer weather and sun.

Mike

KFOR is predicting another major outbreak mid next week.

On their noon WX forecast today both CH 4 & CH 9 are both mentioning the possibility of a significant severe weather event next Thursday and Friday

Hopefully it won't be as bad as what we just saw. I can't wait for July.

Hopefully it won't be as bad as what we just saw. I can't wait for July.

Well, keep in mind that anything that far out is highly speculative, and a great deal can change between now and then. Not saying its wrong, but at this point, particularly for the relief workers, just getting past each day as it comes is a blessing. Can't worry too much about next week until, well, next week.

Well, keep in mind that anything that far out is highly speculative, and a great deal can change between now and then. Not saying its wrong, but at this point, particularly for the relief workers, just getting past each day as it comes is a blessing. Can't worry too much about next week until, well, next week.

Exactly. I'm still typing up the forecast for next week now, but there are chances. We were seeing indications of the May 18-20th event about 10 days ahead of time, which to me is pretty rare to be that accurate.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BORGER TEXAS TO 90 MILES WEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INITIATING NEAR WEAK DEVELOPING FRONTAL
WAVE...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY SHARPENING DRYLINE. RAPID FURTHER INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN
THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CAPE...AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A
FEW SUPERCELLS ARE PROBABLE...SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015.

That cell is already TOR warned. Fired off that retrograde boundary.

Hopefully it won't be as bad as what we just saw. I can't wait for July.


We certainly hope it’s not as bad. Hopefully nothing develops but as with the most recent WX event getting the word out to be paying attention to more official weather source than me during the time space mentioned is important. Of course it can be wrong but awareness prevents injuries and saves lives. That’s why I sometimes post early WX information.

The supercells in this last event were spawning monster tornadoes almost immediately after firing off the dry line. I don't think I've ever seen that before.

The supercells in this last event were spawning monster tornadoes almost immediately after firing off the dry line. I don't think I've ever seen that before.

There several storms right at the triple point that initially had trouble breaking the cap - remember Venture commenting on them in the chat - and the early afternoon was watching those storms going up but not quite churning. But, man, once they did, it went from a sunny, muggy day to a dark, miserable, violent one in next to nothing. The transition from one to the other was about as drastic as I can remember. And the time from breaking the cap to the first time I recall Venture posting that there was rotation near Bridge Creek was seemingly but a few minutes.

The speed at which that wall cloud in Moore was rotating was incredible.

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

Never thought about a laser, but I always thought that something to affect the pressure dynamic at the base of the storm or slightly higher could, at least in theory, blow out a tornado from the inside. The myriad problems with that notion include getting such a device at the right spot, and then having it of sufficient power to have any material impact. Given that the storms are often close to ten miles high, it would take quite a device to really impact its structure - and the prevailing atmosphere would likely allow the storm to reform or "heal" itself even assuming you could do much damage to it.

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

I always take the stance... Man is not greater than Nature. When you start trying to manipulate it is when you cause even more problems. These events have been happening long before we were around, thinking we can modify it is just the foolish superiority complex of man.

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dKU-m0BQ7do/TvVSuQkhd_I/AAAAAAAAD4c/A0eb2loLABk/s1600/dr_evil.jpg

O (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=297)utlook Graphics for next few days: Severe Weather Outlook | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=297)

Right now not seeing anything widespread for Weds/Thurs/Fri of next week. Maybe some dryline activity way out west, but that's about it. Instability increase Friday, Saturday and Sunday of next week...still a long way to go until then.

Never thought about a laser, but I always thought that something to affect the pressure dynamic at the base of the storm or slightly higher could, at least in theory, blow out a tornado from the inside. The myriad problems with that notion include getting such a device at the right spot, and then having it of sufficient power to have any material impact. Given that the storms are often close to ten miles high, it would take quite a device to really impact its structure - and the prevailing atmosphere would likely allow the storm to reform or "heal" itself even assuming you could do much damage to it.

The storm would likely "heal" itself and reform but if we could keep that from happening over a populated area...

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

"No Doubt. Great Idea. Make it So."
(Captain Pickard, Star Trek , The Next (before and during this) Generation [not fueled by petroleum by-products])

"Yup. Fer Shure."
(Nicola Tesla)

(sorry . . . didn't mean to negate the concept . . .)

Capt. Picard: "What did I just say, [Nicola]? Get off your lazy edisonian (westing"house") and just do it! geez . . . =)

[short answer: yes.]
[alex jones thinks it had already been converted into some sort of weapon]
[right, mm? =)

Since every cloud has a silver lining: At least Dr. No and James Bond aren't hoving over the virtual horizon.
(be thankful for that . . . or don't)

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

What exactly do you think a laser beam would do? I understand a little physics but I fail to understand what effect you are going for?

What exactly do you think a laser beam would do? I understand a little physics but I fail to understand what effect you are going for?

To somehow interrupt the formation of the tornado and prevent it from getting to the ground.

I always take the stance... Man is not greater than Nature. When you start trying to manipulate it is when you cause even more problems. These events have been happening long before we were around, thinking we can modify it is just the foolish superiority complex of man.

"man" is not greater than Nature.
"mankind" is equal to or greater than "human nature"
especially at those times when we might think Nature is better than the best of us.
we are not ants
G-d created us later
long before
this discussion began

To somehow interrupt the formation of the tornado and prevent it from getting to the ground.

Yes, I understand that, but how does a laser beam do that? How does a light beam disrupt the wind energy with air essentially transparent to it? Air affects lasers more than lasers affect air. Water vapor scatters the laser beam. It is one of the issues in using lasers as weapons.

Yes, I understand that, but how does a laser beam do that? How does a light beam disrupt the wind energy with air essentially transparent to it? Air affects lasers more than lasers affect air. Water vapor scatters the laser beam. It is one of the issues in using lasers as weapons.

Causing intense heating of the air may be enough to stop or delay a tornado.

Never thought about a laser, but I always thought that something to affect the pressure dynamic at the base of the storm or slightly higher could, at least in theory, blow out a tornado from the inside. The myriad problems with that notion include getting such a device at the right spot, and then having it of sufficient power to have any material impact. Given that the storms are often close to ten miles high, it would take quite a device to really impact its structure - and the prevailing atmosphere would likely allow the storm to reform or "heal" itself even assuming you could do much damage to it.

Tornagrenades!

Does anybody think it may be theoretically possible to focus a very high powered laser beam into an area of rotation to kill a tornado or at least delay it until the supercell gets out of populated territory?

Thunder? Is that you?

"No Doubt. Great Idea. Make it So."
(Captain Pickard, Star Trek , The Next (before and during this) Generation [not fueled by petroleum by-products])

"Yup. Fer Shure."
(Nicola Tesla)

(sorry . . . didn't mean to negate the concept . . .)

Capt. Picard: "What did I just say, [Nicola]? Get off your lazy edisonian (westing"house") and just do it! geez . . . =)

[short answer: yes.]
[alex jones thinks it had already been converted into some sort of weapon]
[right, mm? =)

Since every cloud has a silver lining: At least Dr. No and James Bond aren't hoving over the virtual horizon.
(be thankful for that . . . or don't)Is there a name for the kind of style you write in???? lol

Causing intense heating of the air may be enough to stop or delay a tornado.

More heating might add to the risk. Tornadoes are generated by the convergence of up and down wind drafts. So you have to figure out out to stop one of the drafts. Can't be easy. It's more practical to pray to God to disrupt the tornado, such as making it lift back to the clouds, before it arrives to your town and hope He answers it. Surely a bunch of people after a tornado warning is over found doing that actually worked.

Is there a name for the kind of style you write in???? lol

Modica radicalis :)

Modica radicalis :)That's what I was thinking as well. ;)

I was reading 6% of all tornadoes are rated EF3 or higher. My guess would be that among the tornadoes that strike central Oklahoma, that number is much higher than that. Does anybody have any statistics on that? What about EF4+? I know states like Florida actually have more tornadoes than Oklahoma but most of theirs are EF0 or EF1.

I was reading 6% of all tornadoes are rated EF3 or higher. My guess would be that among the tornadoes that strike central Oklahoma, that number is much higher than that. Does anybody have any statistics on that? What about EF4+? I know states like Florida actually have more tornadoes than Oklahoma but most of theirs are EF0 or EF1.

From 1950-2012...

3593 tornadoes
F5/EF5 - 11 - 0.3%
F4/EF4 - 81 - 2.3%
F3/EF3 - 212 - 5.9%
F2/EF2 - 686 - 19.1%
F1/EF1 - 1115 - 31.0%
F0/EF0 - 1416 - 39.4%
Unrated - 72 - 2.0%

Over the same period Florida has had 3139 tornadoes.

I have yet to hear this confirmed anywhere but I'd have to assume that Moore is the first city in the US to be struck by two separate F/EF-5's.

Oklahoma tornado data from NWS Norman: Tornado Data, Information and Links (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata)
Tornado FAQ: The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/)

Wiki has a lot of links - search for List of tornado
Here is one: List of tornadoes and tornado outbreaks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks)

Is there a name for the kind of style you write in???? lol

Stream of semi-consciousness. =)
(actually, that was a list of various answers to the question posed, above, and a bit of commentary. With lots of cultural references.)

NWS Norman put out an updated track map for the May 19-20th Outbreak...granted "outbreak" might be pushing it when considering the volume is pretty low. They'll probably find a few more, so I expect this to go from the current 8 up to closer to 12-15.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg


At least 8 tornadoes occurred in the area on May 19 and 20, including two violent tornadoes: an EF5 that struck Newcastle, southwest Oklahoma City and Moore, and an EF4 from east Norman to Shawnee. Other tornadoes include an EF3 tornado from northwest ofLuther to Carney to west of Tryon, an EF2 tornado west of Prague, an EF1 tornado in Edmond, an EF1 tornado northeast of Prague, and a brief EF0 tornado southwest of Arcadia. There was also a tornado in the Marlow and Bray area that the intensity is yet to be determined. Investigation also continues on a few other tornado reports received from Sunday and Monday.

Storm chances today mostly anywhere for the western 2/3rds of the state. Morning sounding has mixed layer CAPE of 1700, so there is some instability out there. Expect instability to increase through the day and storms to start popping by Mid Afternoon. Shouldn't see anything get too out of control today, but don't be shocked to see an isolated hail or wind report today.

Modica radicalis :)

I can't find that font on my computer. :(

Still looking at next week but there really isn't any concrete indicating a big severe risk at all. Maybe something Fri-Sun of next week. The pattern definitely seems to want to shift north taking the severe weather mainly into MO/IL/IN/IA. We'll see what how things continue to progress.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0L-XExpb3pY&feature=youtu.be

Amazing video of the tornado. Watch HD fullscreen

Still looking at next week but there really isn't any concrete indicating a big severe risk at all. Maybe something Fri-Sun of next week. The pattern definitely seems to want to shift north taking the severe weather mainly into MO/IL/IN/IA. We'll see what how things continue to progress.

Isn't that normal for this time of year, as we move into late May/early June? That is, doesn't the severe weather season generally slide up that way this time of year?

I recall a very general pattern that the first severe "season" starts in late March/early April in the deep SE US, migrates to the KS/OK/TX region in mid Apr/May, then up to the near NE in June. Not at all suggesting those are hard time frames, because obviously severe weather can happen anywhere given the right circumstances, but I thought there was at least a basic pattern in that vein.

I remember going through Birmingham, AL two years ago about six weeks (?) after that huge tornado ripped through the NW part of their town, and it looked all too much like SW OKC/Moore...

Isn't that normal for this time of year, as we move into late May/early June? That is, doesn't the severe weather season generally slide up that way this time of year?

Yep - exactly. I really like the SPC's climatological maps showing chances of the various severe weather modes that they made: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr)

It shows that transition really well.

Here are the latest statements from OUN and TSA (NWS Tulsa) on the May 19-20th tornadoes...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013


...LATEST ON TORNADO INFORMATION FOR MAY 19 AND MAY 20...


A NUMBER OF TORNADOES AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON MAY 19 AND 20. INFORMATION ON MOST OF THESE TORNADOES IS
STILL VERY PRELIMINARY.


...UPDATES...
1/ THE STEPHENS COUNTY TORNADO WAS DETERMINED TO BE TWO SEPARATE
TORNADOES. THE TIMES WERE ALSO CORRECTED FOR THE STEPHENS COUNTY
TORNADOES AND PRELIMINARY RATINGS WERE ASSIGNED.
2/ A TORNADO WAS ADDED NORTHEAST OF MEEKER FROM MAY 20.
3/ ADDED WIDTH TO LAKE THUNDERBIRD-SHAWNEE TORNADO


...MAY 19 EDMOND TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:22-4:30 PM CDT
LOCATION: NEAR 33RD STREET AND SOUTH BOULEVARD STREET
IN EDMOND TO NEAR HIGHWAY 66 AND POST ROAD.


...MAY 19 ARCADIA TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: SHORT
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NARROW
TIME: 4:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROX. 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF ARCADIA.


...MAY 19 LUTHER-CARNEY TORNADO
/OKLAHOMA.. LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF3
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:41 PM - 5:24 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUTHER TO CARNEY TO
2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRYON.


...MAY 19 LAKE THUNDERBIRD-SHAWNEE TORNADO
/CLEVELAND AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF4
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.2 MILES
TIME: 6:00 PM - 6:50 PM CDT
LOCATION: LAKE THUNDERBIRD /8 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN
NORMAN/ TO 6.5 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MCLOUD.


...MAY 19 WEST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/POTTAWATOMIE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF2
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
TIME: 6:59 PM - 7:12 PM CDT
LOCATION: 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PRAGUE TO
3 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PRAGUE.


...MAY 19 NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/LINCOLN AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS
TIME: 7:17 PM - 7:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TO
5.5 MILES WEST OF WELTY.


...MAY 20 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO
/GRADY..MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES/...


RATING: EF5
PATH LENGTH: 17 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.3 MILES
TIME: 2:45 PM - 3:35 PM CDT
LOCATION: 4.4 MILES WEST NEWCASTLE TO 4.8 MILES EAST
OF MOORE.


...MAY 20 SOUTH OF MARLOW TORNADO...


RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: 1 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 2:58 PM - 3:01 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MARLOW.


...MAY 20 WEST OF BRAY TORNADO...


RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 4 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 3:07 PM - 3:22 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MARLOW TO 4 MILES WEST OF BRAY.


...MAY 20 NORTHEAST OF MEEKER TORNADO...


RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: TO BE DETERMINED
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:40 PM - 4:42 PM CDT
LOCATION: 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEEKER.


OTHER TORNADO REPORTS ARE ALSO STILL BEING INVESTIGATED.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013


...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/20/13 TORNADO EVENT - UPDATE 2


.UPDATE...THIS IS AN EVENT SUMMARY WITH PREVIOUSLY RELEASED INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE TORNADOES THAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ON MAY 20 2013. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INFORMATION
OVER THE COMING DAYS. AT PRESENT THE TORNADO COUNT FOR THIS EVENT IN THE
NWS TULSA AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS ELEVEN.


.AVANT TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 351 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 5 SSW AVANT / OSAGE COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 405 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5.2 WNW VERA / WASHINGTON COUNTY / OK


SURVEY SUMMARY: NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. A HOME
WAS DAMAGED BY A LARGE LIMB THAT FELL ONTO ITS ROOF. THIS TORNADO
PATH IS LIKELY MULTIPLE TORNADOES. CHASER VIDEO WILL BE USED TO
DETERMINE HOW MANY SEGMENTS MAY HAVE OCCURRED.


.RAMONA TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 421 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3 SE RAMONA / WASHINGTON COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 430 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5.2 E RAMONA / WASHINGTON COUNTY / OK


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO DAMAGED A COUPLE HOMES AND SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES.


.TALALA TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 TO 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 433 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 5.8 ENE RAMONA / WASHINGTON COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 447 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 3.4 NNW TALALA / ROGERS COUNTY / OK


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO REMAINED OVER OPEN COUNTRY FOR MOST
OF ITS LIFECYCLE. THE RATING IS BASED ON THE SINGLE HOME THAT IT
IS KNOWN TO HAVE DAMAGED AND THE NEARBY BARN. THE PATH LENGTH IS
THEREFORE AN ESTIMATE BASED ON RADAR DATA AND THE WIDTH WILL BE AN
ESTIMATE MAINLY BASED ON CHASER VIDEO.


.WYANDOTTE TORNADO 1...


RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 800 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 625 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4 N FAIRLAND / OTTAWA COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 36.8129 / -94.8461


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 640 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 4 NE WYANDOTTE / OTTAWA COUNTY / OK
END LAT/LON: 36.8298 / -94.6706


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO SNAPPED OR UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES
AND DAMAGED NUMEROUS HOMES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE AREA WHERE THE TORNADO CROSSED HIGHWAY 137 WHERE
A METAL BUILDING WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED AND SEVERAL HOMES WERE
DAMAGED. MANY HARDWOOD TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED IN THAT AREA.


.WYANDOTTE TORNADO 2...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 600 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 632 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2.8 NW WYANDOTTE / OTTAWA COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 36.8128 / -94.7701


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 642 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 0.5 SE SENECA / NEWTON COUNTY / MO
END LAT/LON: 36.8359 / -94.6062


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL HOUSES...DAMAGED
BARNS OR OUTBUILDINGS...AND SNAPPED OR UPROOTED A NUMBER OF TREES.
IT DISSIPATED OVER THE SOUTH SIDE OF SENECA MISSOURI AFTER
SNAPPING OR UPROOTING SEVERAL TREES AS IT CROSSED THE STATE LINE
AND CROSSED HIGHWAY 43. SEVERAL EYEWITNESSES NORTH OF WYANDOTTE SAW
TWO TORNADOES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND RADAR DATA AS WELL AS
DAMAGE PATTERNS SUPPORT THAT CONCLUSION. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS
LOTS OF EVIDENCE OF STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE SOUTH OF THE
TORNADO PATHS AS THE BOW ECHO STORM SURGED EAST AS IT APPROACHED
THE STATE LINE.


.PROCTOR TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 TO 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 632 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 1.7 SE PROCTOR / ADAIR COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 634 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2.8 E PROCTOR / ADAIR COUNTY / OK


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO UPROOTED TREES AND SNAPPED A FEW
TREES.


.CHRISTIE TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 TO 110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 635 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2.5 SW CHRISTIE / ADAIR COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 637 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 1 NW CHRISTIE / ADAIR COUNTY / OK


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO SNAPPED OR UPROOTED TREES AND DAMAGED
A BARN.


.WESTVILLE TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 TO 110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 640 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2.7 WSW CHRISTIE / ADAIR COUNTY / OK


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 647 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 1.6 N CINCINNATI / WASHINGTON COUNTY / AR


SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO DESTROYED TWO BARNS...DAMAGED
ANOTHER...AND SNAPPED OR UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES.


.SILOAM SPRINGS ARKANSAS TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85-90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.9 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 649 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 1.8 NW SILOAM SPRINGS / BENTON COUNTY / AR
START LAT/LON: 36.2001 / -94.5690


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 654 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2.5 NNE SILOAM SPRINGS / BENTON COUNTY / AR
END_LAT/LON: 36.2217 / -94.5263


SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO APPEARED TO TOUCHDOWN JUST INSIDE THE ARKANSAS
STATE LINE AND TRAVEL EAST-NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. THE TORNADO DID MINOR DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES AND DAMAGED
MANY TREES. THE TORNADO APPEARED STRONGEST AFTER THE TURN TO THE NORTH
AND WHILE ITS WIDTH WAS DIMINISHING. DURING THIS TIME IT...DOWNED
SEVERAL VERY LARGE TREES IN A CYCLONIC FASHION. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS OCCURRED IN THE SILOAM SPRINGS AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR THAT OF
THE TORNADO...SO THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT WAS COMPLICATED. IN ADDITION...
WE HAVE SEEN SOCIAL MEDIA IMAGES THAT SUGGEST THERE WAS A FUNNEL CLOUD MORE
DIRECTLY OVER SILOAM SPRINGS. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THAT WAS ON
PAR WITH THAT OF THE TORNADO IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIRECTLY TIE DAMAGE
TO THE FUNNEL CLOUD PICTURE... BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INFORMATION.
THE OFFICIAL RECORD FOR THIS AND ALL TORNADOES IS NOT SUBMITTED FOR 2 MONTHS
FOLLOWING THE EVENT.


.BEAVER LAKE ARKANSAS TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-95 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 270 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 724 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 7.5 SE PRAIRIE CREEK / BENTON COUNTY / AR
START LAT/LON: 36.3200 / -93.9296


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 725 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 7.8 ESE PRAIRIE CREEK / BENTON COUNTY / AR
END_LAT/LON: 36.3300 / -93.9235


SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO DAMAGED ONE HOME...SEVERAL BOAT DOCKS AND
SNAPPED MANY OAK TREES. THE TORNADO WAS EMBEDDED IN A WIDE SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS.


.CAMERON OKLAHOMA TORNADO...


RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85-90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 500 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0


START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 844 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 5.1 SSW CAMERON / LE FLORE COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 35.0737 / -94.5888


END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 855 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 3.6 ENE CAMERON / LE FLORE COUNTY / OK
END_LAT/LON: 35.1538 / -94.4761


SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO DID MINOR DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF ONE HOME
AND DOWNED OR DAMAGED A NUMBER OF TREES. THE DAMAGE IN POTEAU WAS THE
RESULT OF STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THAT WERE THE PRECURSOR TO THE TORNADO.
THE MOBILE HOME DAMAGED NEAR THE END OF THE TORNADO PATH WAS MOST
LIKELY DAMAGED BY WIND.


EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.


EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH


NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

This takes the two day tornado total to 19 in the state.

NWS Tulsa page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2013may19

CH 4 CH 5 and CH 9 are indicating that we will have severe weather chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

CH 4 CH 5 and CH 9 are indicating that we will have severe weather chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

My money's on Venture.

Just released.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
704 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
704 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER... NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. WITH VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND OVERALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
SUNDAY...WITH UPDATES AS NEEDED.

My money's on Venture.

A lot of disagreements between the medium/long range models that cover that time period. ECMWF has been consistent, mostly, bringing a negatively tilted trough in and severe weather. GFS takes it north. Definitely not clear cut like the last setup.

I'm ready for a few weeks of sunny and dry at this point

I'm ready for a few weeks of sunny and dry at this point

Looking through June 10th, may I recommend Southern CA, NV, AZ, or NM. :)

Looking through June 10th, may I recommend Southern CA, NV, AZ, or NM. :)

Venture, can you break down what you might be seeing around here for the weekend of the 7th? All standard caveats about long-term forecasts given :)

Venture, can you break down what you might be seeing around here for the weekend of the 7th? All standard caveats about long-term forecasts given :)

Temps upper 80s, low 90s. Dryline out west. Slight chance of storms each day, best shot looks like that Sunday right now. Which means it'll probably be dry or snowing. :-P

I will get some better outlooks put together tomorrow. Here is just a brief overview of the upcoming week...

Tomorrow - Maybe some isolated stuff out west, hail/wind main threats.
Tuesday - Mainly I-35 and west. Some severe.
Wednesday - Central & Western OK. Scattered.
Thursday - Central & Western OK. Isolated. Severe probable. Hail/wind main threats.
Friday - Main body of the state, large squall line from the NW possible. Severe probably especially from Central OK back to the West. Depending on initial storm modes, this could become a straight line event unless isolated storm pop up ahead of the front.
Saturday - Scattered storms along the front, severe risk drops a bit.

Severe Risk run down from the SPC outlooks...

Day 1 - NC OK into SW OK

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE.
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE RELATIVELY MODEST /30 KT
OR SO/...ALTHOUGH A BIT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

Day 2 - Western OK, 30% hatched area for some possible significant hail.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013


VALID 281200Z - 291200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL-SRN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...


...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY MAY UNFOLD ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
CNTRL-SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL-SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TOWARDS THE CNTRL U.S. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE...WITH A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES.


...CNTRL-SRN PLAINS STATES...
THE NWD TRANSPORT OF INCREASINGLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEATURING
65-70 DEG F DEWPOINTS OVER CNTRL KS/OK WILL CONTINUE ON STRONG SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A CO/KS SURFACE LOW. EMPHASIS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
WRN HALF OF BIFURCATED LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
RE-FOCUSES TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING COUPLED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SCTD STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING INVOF THE LOW AND
EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW/FRONT. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUAL
UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THE NOSE OF A
50+ KT LLJ AS COLD POOLS MERGE/GROW UPSCALE WITH A STRONG-SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER KS/NEB.


AN ACTIVE DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD INTO W TX
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG C PER KM/ ATOP DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
60-65 DEG F --CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON /2000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE/. STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN THE CAP BY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO ISOLD-SCTD STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE
INITIALLY...WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. BACKING UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAY AID IN
SUSTAINING A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AFTER DARK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ.

Day 3 - Central & Western OK, 30% hatched area over WC and SW OK - all modes of severe weather.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013


VALID 291200Z - 301200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS STATES AND A PART OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...


...SYNOPSIS...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A POTENT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
FROM THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO THE W. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A DUAL SURFACE LOW STRUCTURE WILL SEEMINGLY EVOLVE WITH
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND FARTHER S OVER ERN
CO. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
EWD INTO PARTS OF THE NERN U.S.


...PLAINS AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL BACKING OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ARE LARGEST AND MOST ORTHOGONAL RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT...THE TENDENCY FOR INITIATING BOTH DISCRETE MODES AND
SUSTAINING ROBUST LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM
PARTS OF WRN OK/NWRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
AND STRONG HEATING WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS E OF
THE DRYLINE. ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL --ESPECIALLY EARLIER ON
DURING THE THUNDERSTORM LIFE CYCLE-- SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.


FARTHER N...AN EXPANDING WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THESE
REGIONS. A BROAD CORRIDOR OF STRONG SLY H85 FLOW WILL ACT TO
MAINTAIN A MOIST FEED FROM THE SOUTH ACTING TO DESTABILIZE THIS
REGION. BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
PROCESSES SUCH AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ACT TO LESSEN THE SEVERE THREAT DURING THE TRANSITION FROM
THE EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

Day 4 - 30% risk area for NC OK

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013


VALID 301200Z - 041200Z


...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE MODELS
MAINTAIN A STRONG BELT OF WSWLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GREATLY
HINGE ON THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EVOLUTION
DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /DAY 4-5/ PERIOD. WITH THAT
STATED...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITY AREA OVER PARTS OF KS-OK ON THURSDAY /DAY 4/. A RENEWED
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA ON
FRIDAY /DAY 5/ BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
--PRECLUDING A HIGHLIGHTED AREA AT THIS TIME. FARTHER NE...A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY /DAY 4-5/. BY SATURDAY /DAY 6/...SOME SEVERE
THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING
TROUGH...BUT MAGNITUDE OF THREAT AND PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS
PRECLUDE AN AREA HIGHLIGHT.

Severe storms are currently moving through SW OK. These should stay well west of the OKC area and main threats will be hail and wind. Now for the extended outlook that I just posted over at: Severe Weather Outlook ? May 28 through June 1 | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=354)

Severe weather continues to be in the forecast for the Central and Southern Plains through the week and much of the upcoming weekend. A strong cold front will eventually push into the Southern Plains by the weekend bring a break to the severe weather, but not before a couple days that could be significant.

Tuesday May 28th
Forecast for Tuesday has a risk area for much of Northern Oklahoma as well as much of Western Oklahoma west of I-35. A dryline will continue to linger out in the TX panhandle firing storms up along it. Additional storms are possible in the main body of Oklahoma simply due to the high instability. Best chance for severe weather appears to be up in Kansas down through NW OK. A dryline bulge could develop over SW KS or NW OK that would be a focus for storms in that area. Closer to Central Oklahoma it appears CIN will be pretty high with a strong (but breakable) cap. Coverage will be limited, but anything storm that does develop will have the ability to go severe with large hail and strong winds. The best tornado threat will be North and West.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/28.png

Wednesday May 29th
The dryline will move closer to OK on Wednesday with comparable conditions of high instability. Conditions will be much more favorable for storms to fire in the main body of Oklahoma with all modes of severe weather in play. This does not look like a significant day right now, but will still need to be watched closely.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/29.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/060/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png
Thursday May 30th
Dryline will march into the state finally as a cold front starts to get closed to Oklahoma and moves into KS and TX. High instability will be around and strong upper level dynamics will be present from the OKC Metro North into SC Kansas. Storms should fire along the dryline and also out ahead of it in the higher instability. Upper air conditions look very favorable over Central OK for severe weather, including the chase for some high end severe weather. Very good directional and speed shear, and a very favorable hodograph profile, indicates conditions will be favorable for tornadoes. LCLs into the 900s indicate moisture will be deeper and allow lower cloud bases. As with any forecast, nothing is set in stone and prior day activity can play an impact.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/30.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/084/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png
Friday May 31st
Friday appears to be another potentially significant severe weather day. Instability will be much higher on Friday but upper level winds will be a bit weaker. Wind profiles are still favorable for rotating storms however. We will need to watch how this evolves.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/31.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/108/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png
Saturday June 1st
The cold front finally makes its push into Oklahoma. We are looking at multiple modes of severe weather from supercells to a linear setup/squall line. Very high instability and severe parameters will be possible ahead of the front. Right now this appears to be another day of potentially significant severe weather, but the speed of the cold front will play a major factor on who sees it.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/june13/01.png

Pretty decent hailers moving into SW OK right now.

Very much so. Looks like 2-3" hail moving towards Burns Flatt, Canute, and Foss.

Wow, crazy late May and it started out pretty "slow" too. Can't believe we have 3 to 4 days backed up of potential severe weather.

Does this look like a repeat of the setup that brought us the recent tornadoes?

hello friends I am back, I have been away for a week, my house was destroyed in the tornado i lived 2 blocks from plaza towers elementry.. I hear there is bad weather again?? how bad

hello friends I am back, I have been away for a week, my house was destroyed in the tornado i lived 2 blocks from plaza towers elementry.. I hear there is bad weather again?? how bad

Jesseda, good to hear you are safe and very sorry to hear about your house. :(

Jesseda, good to hear you are safe and very sorry to hear about your house. :(

Just thankful that all my family is a live, my wife ran and grabbed the kids from school and took off to a storm shelter at my parents neighbors house