OK,,,,,,
the TORCON index maybe weather for dummies,
But the Weather Channel is given the OKC area a 5 out of ten on its TORCON index.

Dryline is on the move (southern end). Pushing through Comanche and Cotton counties in SW OK.

Should start seeing some CU field develop down there.


Here in C OK, clouds continue to thin slowly, solar radiation heating is increasing as the cloud deck is burned.

We've got heavy cloud cover and no sunshine at all in downtown OKC. It's not even trying to come out. Dull and gray.

FYI several of us are in the chat room already so feel free to join us :)

Boundaries currently...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-3.png

It’s now mostly sunny in west Norman

Some cool pics on Emily Sutton's fb page:

Edmond tornado
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/971934_10201122802970422_791003139_n.jpg


Hail that landed in east Norman
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/941390_10201335640497859_453551597_n.jpg


Tornado near Bethel Acres
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/184555_560653567318383_79693874_n.jpg

Public information statement
national weather service norman ok
1048 am cdt mon may 20 2013


damage survey teams in the shawnee oklahoma area have found preliminary
indications of ef-4 damage. Further updates and more detailed information
of this and other tornado damage areas will be released later today and
tuesday.

Still gray in north central OKC but I can tell the sun is trying as hard as it can to burn off the clouds. I hope the clouds can hold because that means less instability this afternoon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VvAthNEqxJg

Reed Timmer, Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, and others intercept the tornado in Edmond.

Wow! That's some epic footage in there.

DROP IT DOWN! DROP IT DOWN!!!!!!

Also... nice shot of the Henderson Hills sign. Maybe they could use that in a marketing promo for the neighborhood -- nah, probably not. :eek:

If anything, these clouds are helping keep Temp/dewpoint spreads at a smaller margin -- lowering LCL's and lending more toward the tornado threat. The cap is not nearly the issue it's been the past couple of days so convective temps will be reached near 80*.

Sun is now out in central OKC.

Are things shaping up for more major F4/F5 tornadoes or do you think we will see the weaker variety today?

Still gray in north central OKC but I can tell the sun is trying as hard as it can to burn off the clouds. I hope the clouds can hold because that means less instability this afternoon.

Like yesterday when it rained around .1, I bet, today, Stillwater gets bypassed from heavy stuff once again. It may not even rain a drop, unless a strong unbroken line forms, unlike the intense, isolated cells from yesterday.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image8.jpg[/URL]

Approaching 600 watts per square meter in much of central OK. Looks like we will get a solid 1.5-2 hours of heating before the show. Temps will most likely climb into the lower 80s.

One thing to note about the cool front, the boundary is meandering back and forth, so essentially stationary right now. Looks for an MD soon.


Canadian, Caddo, and Kingfisher counties will be where the action fires up froms the looks of it right now.

Public information statement
national weather service norman ok
1048 am cdt mon may 20 2013


damage survey teams in the shawnee oklahoma area have found preliminary
indications of ef-4 damage. Further updates and more detailed information
of this and other tornado damage areas will be released later today and
tuesday.

Easy to believe considering the photos of it:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKrFdk4CIAA9qeM.jpg:large (https://twitter.com/Wolf2Bison/status/336298234093903872/photo/1)

Photo of damage from the Shawnee (presumed ef4) tornado:

http://distilleryimage4.ak.instagram.com/a347476ac16811e2926822000a1f9c9b_7.jpg (http://instagram.com/p/ZijiJxvPfE/)

You don't normally see vehicles up in trees.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-5.png

In the latest NWS update they indicate that they are just as concerned about the risk for tornadoes today as yesterday,,,,
“maybe even more so”!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q7iUn9YfWA&feature=player_embedded#!

this is awesome, i wish we could do this everday

This is what KWTV 9 indicated on its noon news.
OKC is in a high risk area for tornadoes today. It’s even higher in Norman and points south and east.

this is awesome, i wish we could do this everday

Me too. Thoughts of storm damage and insurance cancellation is like having a birthday every day.

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)1m (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/336528916959338497)
Just launched a weather balloon. Cap is still there, but not strong and very breakable. Strong shear in place. #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

this is awesome, i wish we could do this everday

Yes, death and destruction is awesome!

Any chance the storms don't really get going till they are past the metro?

Yes, death and destruction is awesome!

Any chance the storms don't really get going till they are past the metro?

Front is stalled west of the almost the entire Metro area. Rinse/repeat of yesterday it appears with more widespread activity.

Any chance the storms don't really get going till they are past the metro?



Definite chance of this.

this is awesome, i wish we could do this everday

In that case, I'll *let* you chip in on my insurance deductibles.

Lower levels of the cool front has pushed SE in the past hour. (wind shift)

Right now it is splitting Canadian county diagonally and is just grazing of the NW corner of Oklahoma county. It looks like it has stalled and perhaps slid a bit further North over the last few scans.

Nice CU all along front and dryline now, it is just a matter of when the first towers bust out now.

CH 4 KFOR TV has a high risk area for tornadoes south of a line from near Tulsa to OKC to near Lawton

In the latest NWS update they indicate that they are just as concerned about the risk for tornadoes today as yesterday,,,,
“maybe even more so”!

Severe Weather Update - Mon May 20, 2013 1130am - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q7iUn9YfWA&feature=player_embedded#)!

Thanks for that link ou48A. I liked the series of graphics and the calm explanation from the NWS.

Lower levels of the cool front has pushed SE in the past hour. (wind shift)

Right now it is splitting Canadian county diagonally and is just grazing of the NW corner of Oklahoma county. It looks like it has stalled and perhaps slid a bit further North over the last few scans.

Nice CU all along front and dryline now, it is just a matter of when the first towers bust out now.

Seems the North end might be moving a tad more than the south end at this point. Which is still slower than a snail. Dryline is finally through Medicine Park and Grandfield down sort, so that is at least not taking a nap.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0726.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK INTO NWRN TX AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201726Z - 201930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALL POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM KS INTO N TX.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN
KS INTO NRN OK AND BENDING SWWD W OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FARTHER
SW...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN TX...ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SW
ACROSS W TX.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK
INTO SERN KS WHERE A DEEP MOIST LAYER EXISTS. GIVEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THIS AREA COULD BE
WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS.

TO THE S...AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH AN INCREASING
CU FIELD FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...AS WELL AS
HODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION NEAR THE SFC FRONT WILL AID IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HP SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND
POSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...AND RAPIDLY
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN OK LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/20/2013

Thanks for that link ou48A. I liked the series of graphics and the calm explanation from the NWS.

You’re very welcome
IMHO it takes a verity of different methods to get a verity of different people to pay attention.
For some it the NWS but I like to have several good weather sources / opinions

Echo coming up in W Logan county.


What you guys think? a few initial individual cells? Or we go christmas-tree from the get go?

Anon not sure if you are in the chat or not, but brought this up. MCD area could easily be in one watch, but they are talking two.

Think reg Red Box NE OK / E KS...PDS C OK to N TX. Thoughts?

As far as development...this has a feeling of once it goes it is going to go. Weaker cap so they won't be fighting like they did yesterday. Could get serious very quickly.

Western Payne County, west of Stillwater...two echos popping up now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/ktlx_20130520_17381.png

this is awesome, i wish we could do this everday

Yeah, right until a tornado ruins the lives of someone you know or decimates OU or, better yet, destroys your life.

Yeah, right until a tornado ruins the lives of someone you know or decimates OU or, better yet, destroys your life.

thats a chance you take living in central OK

https://s3.amazonaws.com/images.scribblelive.com/2013/5/20/19b071f8-f0e2-4d37-8898-8a78a96435db_500.jpg

My parents house got destroyed in Bethel Acres. Wiped out 3/4 of the home and destroyed their cars. 149th and Fishmarket. Thankfully they're safe.
So glad they are safe but I'm sorry that happened to them. How old are they? This is hitting just a bit too close to home for the OKCTalk family.

Watch officially out now.

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARVIN GRADY HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
KAY KINGFISHER LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MARSHALL MAYES
MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH STEPHENS
TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON

Storm going up rapidly now west of Marlow and SW of Rush Springs. This can go severe very quickly.

thats a chance you take living in central OK

That's a chance you take living in Texas, Kansas, Nebraska or yes here in Central OK. Doesn't mean it's cool and awesome.

softball sized hail being reported with that storm

softball sized hail being reported with that storm

That tells you how fast they're going up then. Wundermap still shows them as greens and yellows on their intensity scale. No reds, violots, or blacks indicating hail!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0191_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...

DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BOTH NEAR A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ROUGHLY WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE MOST
PROMINENT TORNADO THREAT...WHICH PROBABLY WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENLARGES
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME VERY LARGE...
WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND EVOLVES INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

Whats the best IPAD app for information such as this post....or should I say better radar etc..

Hail to 4 inches? Haha that's quite impressive.

Western Payne County, west of Stillwater...two echos popping up now.

Nothing impressive getting established in Stillwater with this northward view as of 1:35pm, of course, subject to change.

http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/STLLW/STLLW_l.jpg?rnd=15-051320130102readImage.asp?dummy=1369074305684

Whats the best IPAD app for information such as this post....or should I say better radar etc..

I've tried a few radar apps with the iPad, but for local information I like Channel 5's mobile radar site right in the Safari browser.
Interactive Radar - Oklahoma City - OKC - Mobile-KOCO.com (http://m.koco.com/weather/radar)
Once they've been tracking awhile hit the play button and you can see the movement, zoom in, all that. It's worked well for me on the iPad.

For those that are new here, we'll be doing live now casting in the chat room: Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

For those that are new here, we'll be doing live now casting in the chat room: Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

Thanks Venture! I read last night you took the day off from your "rel job" to man the chat and keep us informed. You're tops!

2:09 PM

NWS Norman @NWSNorman

208pm - storms developing near Blanchard and Tuttle, moving NE at 30 mph. Stay alert Norman, Moore, and S OKC. Not severe yet. #okwx

Things are really popping SW of OKC and over the west side of the city proper. Morgan says it's a developing supercell near the old Xerox plant and moving into Bethany. 2" hail with this storm. Heads up OKC. It's slowing a little, but another large cell moving into west Moore. Popping fast.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-6.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/20-8.png

Poor Moore. I think Mustang, so far, has dodged the bullet again today.

Is this going for Shields and SW 89th?

All three have now said this is May 3rd all over again. One mile and a quarter wide debris ball. Unbelievable.

edit to say 2 1/4 mile debris ball.

The Warren theatre got it big time. So sad to see all of the destruction. Moore is tough ol' town, hopefully there won't be any fatalities.