Welcome to April! Severe weather season has already started off with some good hail storms on March 30th and 31st. We will be moving towards our statistical peak of severe weather (May) through this month, so the occurrence of events will likely go up. While we might see some snow still over the first week of April, the snowfall maps have been removed for this month.


Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Fire Weather Images


Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW60.grad.png?1343628443278O klahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://okfire.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/models/realtime/nfd/images/latest.bi.gif?1343629065Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*
Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)









State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)CASA Radar Deployment (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml) - SW Oklahomahttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NWRT/w2_NWRT_Reflectivity_00.50.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/casart_CASA_MergedReflectivityComposite.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)
State Satellite Images


Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)
Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)

References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
NWS Norman Page: NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page (http://www.mesonet.org/)
West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/)
Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather)
Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference (http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php) -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

The slight risk today is for SW Oklahoma.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.
ULTIMATELY...STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THE
SHARPENING DRYLINE SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS
MAY BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED INITIALLY. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...A
PERIOD WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS
PROBABLE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS IN WANING INSTABILITY LATER
TONIGHT.

Spring Drought Outlook: ClimateWatch Magazine » The Story for Spring: Drought Relief Not Likely (http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2013/the-story-for-spring-drought-relief-not-likely)

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Spring2013Drought_Outlook_720.jpg

^
On a somewhat related note, the situation is getting pretty dire across the border in Wichita Falls.

Wichita Falls, Texas, Could Go Dry by Year's End | The Texas Tribune (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/21/wichita-falls-among-cities-could-go-dry-years-end/)

Ah I forgot it is April now. :D

This is my first spring back in Oklahoma since the late '90s. I am a bit concerned about possibility of tornados being the last time I lived here I was in Moore and the F5 hit on May 3rd, 1999.

I guess it is about time to do a longer range review of what we may see. This is all based on the 12Z GFS today, so take it as you will. :)

Wet Stuff! Time Period: Today through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms seem destined for the next few days - and we'll take it for sure! Rainfall amounts could be quite beneficial as well. GFS estimates around 1" or more from I-40 north and up to 1" south of I-40. Of course things might be pretty scattered so you might not get an inch, but 20 miles away could get 2. We know how it works. Temps should start to cool off significantly moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is going to be pretty raw outside. Severe weather looks very limited, so no issues there. Now, GFS and NAM both want to have some winter precip come into play here with this system. I'm not totally buying it, even though its been showing up for several days now. Best chance for snow right now appears to be mainly NW OK, but anyone north of I-40 might see a flake or two at some point...the precip variety. :)

It is Spring Afterall. Time Period: Late Saturday 6th through Tuesday 9th.

This has been mentioned a bit here and there and has been showing up for a few days now, so chances are going up. Looks for moderate instability to return on Saturday over Western OK with CAPE values around 1500 over more areas. Precip looks like it will hold off until late with a few isolated storms, which will include the risk for severe weather. Sunday will have a continue risk of severe weather, mainly from the OKC area back to the SW near SPS and LAW. Instability will be increasing and could see CAPE values over 2000 j/kg with a LI value from -4 to -8. Convection still appears isolated but if instability verifies then the storms would probably be severe. Sunday is what we'll call the classic "Day Before THE Day" and they can also deliver some surprises.

Monday is THE day. We are going to see high to very high instability cover much of Oklahoma except for the far NW and NE sections. We are talking CAPE values from 2500 to over 3000 j/kg and LI values of -8 to -11. We are going to see a low move pretty much along I-44 with a warm front in Northern OK and a dryline over SW OK. The forecast sounding is below which indicates a pretty good setup for severe weather and tornadoes. We'll keep an eye on this and see how it develops. It is still really far out, but it is something that needs watching but could change on timing and setup.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/19568.GIF

Tuesday morning much of the activity will be pushing out to the east and should be completely out of the state by afternoon.

GFS is still running on the dates going further out but looks like things might reload again by the following weekend, but we'll worry about that as we get closer.

I guess it is about time to do a longer range review of what we may see. This is all based on the 12Z GFS today, so take it as you will. :)

Wet Stuff! Time Period: Today through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms seem destined for the next few days - and we'll take it for sure! Rainfall amounts could be quite beneficial as well. GFS estimates around 1" or more from I-40 north and up to 1" south of I-40. Of course things might be pretty scattered so you might not get an inch, but 20 miles away could get 2. We know how it works. Temps should start to cool off significantly moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is going to be pretty raw outside. Severe weather looks very limited, so no issues there. Now, GFS and NAM both want to have some winter precip come into play here with this system. I'm not totally buying it, even though its been showing up for several days now. Best chance for snow right now appears to be mainly NW OK, but anyone north of I-40 might see a flake or two at some point...the precip variety. :)

It is Spring Afterall. Time Period: Late Saturday 6th through Tuesday 9th.

This has been mentioned a bit here and there and has been showing up for a few days now, so chances are going up. Looks for moderate instability to return on Saturday over Western OK with CAPE values around 1500 over more areas. Precip looks like it will hold off until late with a few isolated storms, which will include the risk for severe weather. Sunday will have a continue risk of severe weather, mainly from the OKC area back to the SW near SPS and LAW. Instability will be increasing and could see CAPE values over 2000 j/kg with a LI value from -4 to -8. Convection still appears isolated but if instability verifies then the storms would probably be severe. Sunday is what we'll call the classic "Day Before THE Day" and they can also deliver some surprises.

Monday is THE day. We are going to see high to very high instability cover much of Oklahoma except for the far NW and NE sections. We are talking CAPE values from 2500 to over 3000 j/kg and LI values of -8 to -11. We are going to see a low move pretty much along I-44 with a warm front in Northern OK and a dryline over SW OK. The forecast sounding is below which indicates a pretty good setup for severe weather and tornadoes. We'll keep an eye on this and see how it develops. It is still really far out, but it is something that needs watching but could change on timing and setup.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/19568.GIF

Tuesday morning much of the activity will be pushing out to the east and should be completely out of the state by afternoon.

GFS is still running on the dates going further out but looks like things might reload again by the following weekend, but we'll worry about that as we get closer.

Venture: you are freaking awesome. THANKS!

Storms firing in the S TX panhandle. One nice supercell furthest W on the dryline boundary. Looks like it is raining hail galore.

I think the rain starts really late tonight over C OK and we get soaked for a solid 2 days. Some flooding will actually be possible pending on who is under thunderstorms etc.

If you hear anyone complaining about the rain this week... promptly slap them.

I slap the moisture right of their mouth.... My pond is about 11 feet low right now. So I need all the moisture I can get!

I guess it is about time to do a longer range review of what we may see. This is all based on the 12Z GFS today, so take it as you will. :)

Wet Stuff! Time Period: Today through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms seem destined for the next few days - and we'll take it for sure! Rainfall amounts could be quite beneficial as well. GFS estimates around 1" or more from I-40 north and up to 1" south of I-40. Of course things might be pretty scattered so you might not get an inch, but 20 miles away could get 2. We know how it works. Temps should start to cool off significantly moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is going to be pretty raw outside. Severe weather looks very limited, so no issues there. Now, GFS and NAM both want to have some winter precip come into play here with this system. I'm not totally buying it, even though its been showing up for several days now. Best chance for snow right now appears to be mainly NW OK, but anyone north of I-40 might see a flake or two at some point...the precip variety. :)

It is Spring Afterall. Time Period: Late Saturday 6th through Tuesday 9th.

This has been mentioned a bit here and there and has been showing up for a few days now, so chances are going up. Looks for moderate instability to return on Saturday over Western OK with CAPE values around 1500 over more areas. Precip looks like it will hold off until late with a few isolated storms, which will include the risk for severe weather. Sunday will have a continue risk of severe weather, mainly from the OKC area back to the SW near SPS and LAW. Instability will be increasing and could see CAPE values over 2000 j/kg with a LI value from -4 to -8. Convection still appears isolated but if instability verifies then the storms would probably be severe. Sunday is what we'll call the classic "Day Before THE Day" and they can also deliver some surprises.

Monday is THE day. We are going to see high to very high instability cover much of Oklahoma except for the far NW and NE sections. We are talking CAPE values from 2500 to over 3000 j/kg and LI values of -8 to -11. We are going to see a low move pretty much along I-44 with a warm front in Northern OK and a dryline over SW OK. The forecast sounding is below which indicates a pretty good setup for severe weather and tornadoes. We'll keep an eye on this and see how it develops. It is still really far out, but it is something that needs watching but could change on timing and setup.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/19568.GIF

Tuesday morning much of the activity will be pushing out to the east and should be completely out of the state by afternoon.

GFS is still running on the dates going further out but looks like things might reload again by the following weekend, but we'll worry about that as we get closer.Now, if you were a meteorologist, I might actually pay attention to the weather lol, I only drop in here from time to time, and it's a million times better than the. . . . . . news . . . . . .

I slap the moisture right of their mouth.... My pond is about 11 feet low right now. So I need all the moisture I can get!

lol

Found this on Michael Armstrong's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/MichaelArmstrongWX/posts/499458660113703


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TeXtdqBwhmU

Found this on Michael Armstrong's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/MichaelArmstrongWX/posts/499458660113703


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TeXtdqBwhmU

I have a friend that lives in Sallisaw & she was in OKC that day but got back to Sallisaw just in time to have some twister fun. She was telling me about it & it didn't do a ton of damage (it's Sallisaw after all), but it did knock the power out.

This evening NAM 84 hour precip total (will cover the entire event the next few days)...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2013/04/02/00/NAM_221_2013040200_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png

I guess it is about time to do a longer range review of what we may see. This is all based on the 12Z GFS today, so take it as you will. :)

Wet Stuff! Time Period: Today through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms seem destined for the next few days - and we'll take it for sure! Rainfall amounts could be quite beneficial as well. GFS estimates around 1" or more from I-40 north and up to 1" south of I-40. Of course things might be pretty scattered so you might not get an inch, but 20 miles away could get 2. We know how it works. Temps should start to cool off significantly moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, so it is going to be pretty raw outside. Severe weather looks very limited, so no issues there. Now, GFS and NAM both want to have some winter precip come into play here with this system. I'm not totally buying it, even though its been showing up for several days now. Best chance for snow right now appears to be mainly NW OK, but anyone north of I-40 might see a flake or two at some point...the precip variety. :)

It is Spring Afterall. Time Period: Late Saturday 6th through Tuesday 9th.

This has been mentioned a bit here and there and has been showing up for a few days now, so chances are going up. Looks for moderate instability to return on Saturday over Western OK with CAPE values around 1500 over more areas. Precip looks like it will hold off until late with a few isolated storms, which will include the risk for severe weather. Sunday will have a continue risk of severe weather, mainly from the OKC area back to the SW near SPS and LAW. Instability will be increasing and could see CAPE values over 2000 j/kg with a LI value from -4 to -8. Convection still appears isolated but if instability verifies then the storms would probably be severe. Sunday is what we'll call the classic "Day Before THE Day" and they can also deliver some surprises.

Monday is THE day. We are going to see high to very high instability cover much of Oklahoma except for the far NW and NE sections. We are talking CAPE values from 2500 to over 3000 j/kg and LI values of -8 to -11. We are going to see a low move pretty much along I-44 with a warm front in Northern OK and a dryline over SW OK. The forecast sounding is below which indicates a pretty good setup for severe weather and tornadoes. We'll keep an eye on this and see how it develops. It is still really far out, but it is something that needs watching but could change on timing and setup.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/19568.GIF

Tuesday morning much of the activity will be pushing out to the east and should be completely out of the state by afternoon.

GFS is still running on the dates going further out but looks like things might reload again by the following weekend, but we'll worry about that as we get closer.

TLDR:
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR_Uh-rlp_gTRWhpKSLADjA7FgAiwWNonZIU5zEB1IuQtlhoFjEGw

I have a friend that lives in Sallisaw & she was in OKC that day but got back to Sallisaw just in time to have some twister fun. She was telling me about it & it didn't do a ton of damage (it's Sallisaw after all), but it did knock the power out.

I was in Tulsa Saturday night when this storm went tornadic just south and east of Tulsa. I texted my cousin who lives south of Sallisaw to be aware that there was a tornadic storm heading her way and she needed to be vigilant. Glad I fore warned her!

It isn't even radar indicated according to intellicast radar, but pea size hail at NW 122nd & MacArthur just happened.

It isn't even radar indicated according to intellicast radar, but pea size hail at NW 122nd & MacArthur just happened.

Not a shock. Very cold air is overhead now so pea size hail will probably be pretty common.

I have a friend that lives in Sallisaw & she was in OKC that day but got back to Sallisaw just in time to have some twister fun. She was telling me about it & it didn't do a ton of damage (it's Sallisaw after all), but it did knock the power out.I bet she got a show though haha

Areas just SW of OKC [Chickasha-ish] have already had almost 2 inches of rain early this morning. Storms and showers continue to develop and train across from west to east. C OK so far has kind of been in-between the heavier bands and missing out. BUt it looks like it is beginning to fill in from the West.

...cntrl/srn plains mon/d7...
Despite short term discrepancies...models are in good agreement
developing a wrn trough...and ejecting a leading shortwave into the
plains on mon/d7. The gfs is quicker to bring mid 60s f dewpoints
into ok by mon...suggesting an unbroken fetch from the gulf...while
the ecmwf mixes dewpoints into the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s.
Regardless...if the speed of the trough holds true...a dryline
supercell event will occur with tornadoes and very large hail.
Tornado damage potential will depend heavily on boundary layer
moisture magnitude as steep mid to upper level lapse rates and shear
profiles will both favor significant severe. However...given
moisture quality questions...timing of primary shortwave trough and
relatively small threat area...no area will be outlined at this
time.

Western Oklahoma seems to be missing out on the rain.

Right now the development zone is kind of meandering about Western OK. It is slowly pushing back out West. Redevlopment taking place N of Mangum towards Erick. This should fill in more during the afternoon over SW OK and back into C OK.


Right now areas just SW of OKC and S of Norman are already over 2 inches.

To back up Anon's post, here is the running 24 hour total for precip...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

What a great rain we're getting today, not so hard it runs off and it’s been steady for a few hours now.

Nice storm/rain core moving over same area from Minco to Norman, this is setting up a band of heavy amounts.

OKC finally got in on some heavier action and is approaching 3/4 of an inch, especially on the south sides.



New development out west of El Reno moving ENE, these bands are kind of developing and riding up out of SW OK. An eventual push east will occurr before another round develops in the TX panhandle late tonight into tomorrow. Should be similar to today, but maybe heavier (if you get lucky to be under the training bands).

All of OKC will break the 1 inch mark with this next wave of rainstorms moving in from the west right now ~3:00pm.


There is a gnarly supercell NW of Austin, TX right now. That is just churning away all by itself. Beautiful storm on radar. Most likely will be tornadic soon.



New MD up for SW TX as the next wave of energy will emerge.

Well, I just looked at a radar map and Wichita Falls seems to be getting some substantial rain, which seems good after the article I read yesterday about them.

N OKC is around just 1" so far. @ OKC is over 1.5". Heading towards Norman puts you over 2" easy and south of Norman is 3"+.



Another batch of showers and storms is moving into C OK from the W and SW. This will likely increase in intensity just a bit and then push slowly off east much like yesterday. There will be a break in the precip and then the wrap around from the actual Low will move into the area late tonight into tomorrow where a few snow showers could be mixed in.

Rain moving into C OK right now is intensifying and expanding. Most of OKC should pick up an additional 1"+. Expanding from the W and NW, so N OKC will catch up to southern parts of the city here pretty quickly. From there it is a race to 2"!

A volatile severe weather setup for next Sun-Tues is taking shape on both the GFS and ECMWF for OK.

Here's a 4-panel I put together from today's 12z run of the GFS for Monday at 7pm:

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/894762_10101355125444637_19942043_o.jpg

Here's the Skew-T and hodograph for OKC at the same time:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013040312_F132_34.5000N_98.5000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013040312_F132_34.5000N_98.5000W_HODO.png


Both are hinting at a good chance of severe weather.

Man, that looks like one of those classic set ups with a bullseye right around Lawton and likely pushing right up I-44. Let's hope this one doesn't hold up...

My job gets so much easier since all these other contributors found the forum. LOL :)

Pretty what is above nails things that's been advertised here for a few days now. Models yesterday were out of whack so that is why I've been quiet. I wanted to see if they snapped back.

If it says anything, I'm working on a site redesign to get the chat room ready for Monday. Trying to find a solution that one cost an arm and a leg though. LOL

Man, that looks like one of those classic set ups with a bullseye right around Lawton and likely pushing right up I-44. Let's hope this one doesn't hold up...

Agree. We all know how much tornadoes seem to love HE Bailey Turnpike.

I am going to Dallas to see my parents and was planning on coming back on Sunday evening. Should I bump up my departure time to avoid any bad weather?

Here is the link for the Chat for next week. I have it scheduled to open on Saturday, but that is more or less to get the twitter feeds rolling. :)

Live Chat ? Wx Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

As of right now, you'll be able to sign up for a reminder of the event opening.

Because people only thought it was spring. ;)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CDT WED APR 3 2013


OKZ004-005-009-010-014-032200-
/O.CON.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...ARNETT...WOODWARD...
CHEYENNE
256 PM CDT WED APR 3 2013


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...


A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON.


* TIMING: OCCASIONAL SLEET...SNOW AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


* MAIN IMPACT: SOME SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.


* PRECAUTIONS: WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR...SOME
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS. BE CAREFUL AND SLOW DOWN IF YOU PLAN ON
TRAVELING THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

The system's last hurrah is beginning now. Low is tracking across TX panhandle now and the last shot of precip. is developing rapidly in SW OK into NW TX, there is a chute of dry air worked into this area that is trying to erode away some of the rain. However, the rain is winning.

This should be some of the most solid stuff, in terms of coverage.

As this wave is moving in, S OKC has just over 2" and N OKC has over 1.5". Pending on how intense this band gets, OKC could get to 3"+. Norman is already about to hit 3" and El Reno is in the same boat.


So far, the money spot has been just S of Pauls Valley where there are indicated 4"+ amounts with more to fall.

In the SW metro we've been getting sleet on and off with the rain. Crazy.

Where am I? Seattle? This is a crazy good soaking!

In the SW metro we've been getting sleet on and off with the rain. Crazy.

Yeah winter isn't over yet. It is supposed to make another comeback early next week.

It sleeted a bit here in Norman last night. The weather is determined to ruin my gardening efforts.

This was a great spring storm:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.96hr.png


Another one forecasted for next week, as well.

That 0.77 at Ardmore really blows..... I can only hope some of that yellow area just to the north of Ardmore was over my property down there.

Posting these as I get through the various days.

Sunday – April 7th
Low Level moisture will be increasing over much of Oklahoma. Dewpoints into the low 60s will be prevalent over much Central and Eastern OK. We’ll see a dryline setup along the OK/TX PH border during the afternoon. Dewpoint values into the upper 50s will spread through much of NW and West Central OK. By 4PM we’ll see an area of convergence focused on SW OK (possible dryline bulge area) and increase to the North through the late afternoon. Precip is forecast to develop over mainly the Northern Half of Western OK. In this are we are going to see SBCAPE values approach 2000 j/kg, LI values near -6, and very little CIN or a cap. Shear looks overall fairly weak in the 0-1km segment, improving slightly in the 0-3km segment. So would expect overall threat to be mainly a large hail threat with some damaging wind reports. Tornado threat isn’t zero, but it isn’t all that great.

My Outlook Area: Marginal Severe – Alva to Taloga to Cheyenne.
SPC Outlook Area: None currently

Monday – April 7th

Severe weather appears probably on Monday over Central and Western Oklahoma. The dryline will setup in Western OK and move east through the afternoon approach the far Western areas of the OKC Metro area by 7PM. The 12Z GFS indicates that the dryline will retreat through the evening heading back to the TX border by late evening. Ahead of the dryline, dewpoints will be mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s. SBCAPE values will be between 1500 and 3000 j/kg across much of Central Oklahoma from border to border. Lifted indices in the same general area will be between -4 and -8. Cap strength increases as you get east of I-35, so development will be tough in that area (let alone sustaining any that moves in).

The main threats right now appear to be large hail and some wind damage. Tornado risk is higher than Sunday with the more favorable area along the I-35 corridor. LCL heights west of that area appear to be too high due to the dryer air cutting in. We’ll have to see how things progress as we get closer though. Right now I would say it is a definite slight risk area but with coverage remaining isolated for the most part. Storm motions appear to be ENE @ 35-45 mph.

My Outlook Area: Slight Risk – Western and Central OK (exactly area will vary until we know where dryline will setup and how far west the strong capping will spread).
SPC Outlook Area: Day 7 Severe – Northwest OK w/ mention of Isolated severe along dryline.

Tuesday – April 8th

Potential significant severe weather day, especially east. Dryline will be setting up by mid afternoon over Western Oklahoma near US 183. Instability ahead of the dryline shows SBCAPE values over 1500 j/kg from the I-35 corridor to the east. Moisture will be getting very deep from the low 60s around I-35 to the mid and upper 60s in much of Eastern OK. CAP strength will be mostly eroded over Central OK by late afternoon allowing for some isolated storms to develop. The most favorable area for storms to develop will be along and east of I-44 from the Tulsa area all the way back to Lawton. Storms will also be likely ahead of this area into SE OK where a more enhanced risk is located for severe weather.

Threats will include all storm modes from hail to tornadoes. The higher tornado risk will be further east, but could still see one or two over Central sections with the isolated storms that develop. Storm motions look typical for April, 30-50 mph to the NE.

My Outlook Area: Enhanced Slight Risk – Eastern OK; Slight Risk – Central OK.
SPC Outlook Area: None officially yet.

SPC Discussion

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT THU APR 04 2013

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SUNDAY/D4 - NERN OK INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z MON. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ON SLY FLOW AROUND THE WRN ATLANTIC
ANTICYCLONE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO KS AND MO BY
00Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD ACROSS ERN KS...MO...IA...AND IL DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT AND ADEQUATE CLOUD
BEARING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...MONDAY/D5 - CNTRL AND WRN KS...NWRN OK...
MODELS INDICATE THE WRN TROUGH AMPLIFYING ON MON WITH A 90 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CA AND NOSING INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY TUE MORNING WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS KS AND
INTO MO. A DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD NEAR THE TX/WRN OK BORDER AS
WELL. LOWER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MID 60S F TO THE RED RIVER. WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
LEVELS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
OVER SWRN KS...WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF CAPPING POTENTIAL AND WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH HEATING. WIND PROFILES WILL BE DECIDEDLY
SUPERCELLULAR WITH EXTREME HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
DURING THE EVENING...WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND MAY INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS HOW THE EVENING STORMS MAY BE FORCED. THE GFS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT SURGING SWD. IF THIS OCCURS...INITIAL
SUPERCELLS COULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED SUPERCELLS AFTER DARK WITH THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING STATIONARY ACROSS NRN KS.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY SWD INTO WRN OK/TX ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BUT THIS THREAT AREA COULD BE CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE AS
CAPPING INCREASES TO THE E. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND DECREASED SURFACE
ALBEDO MAY PROVIDE A FEEDBACK MECHANISM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL.

...TUESDAY/D6 TO THURSDAY/D8 - ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS IS FORECAST TO SURGE SWD
AND WILL BECOME A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM NRN IL INTO MO
AND OK...LINKING WITH THE DRYLINE OVER N CNTRL TX. BY
TUESDAY...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STATIONARY
ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NRN IL/IND DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS INTO OK AND CNTRL TX. THIS MODEL ALSO
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FROM
KS/OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN
AREA ON TUE/D6...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO WED/D7
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

News 9 is now predicting snow for next week after the severe weather event with highs only in the 30s. Unbelievable.

Wow, well I guess this means I can't go get my Purple Fountain Grass from Marcum's Nursery this weekend! :mad:

Not seeing any snow on the morning model run, but below freezing possible Thursday morning. So not out of the woods for outdoor plants just yet.

News 9 is now predicting snow for next week after the severe weather event with highs only in the 30s. Unbelievable.

If there is even a remote chance of cold rainy weather the news stations alwasy predict snow. Ill stick to the NWS and my weather channel app for non ratings inspired forecasts.

If there is even a remote chance of cold rainy weather the news stations alwasy predict snow. Ill stick to the NWS and my weather channel app for non ratings inspired forecasts.

weather channel is terrible with their 10 day forcast ...

Here are the forecast soundings for Sunday and Monday (tuesday is too far out for Earl Baker's site). These are all based on KOUN (Norman) for their location. I apologize that the underlying graph doesn't appear on the Skew-T. I have these all linked through: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/soundings.html

SUNDAY

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/084/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png

MONDAY
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/108/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png

So some thoughts to the above images. They are seem extremely classic in their setup for rotating storms.

Sunday - I really like this setup where it comes to severe weather and tornadic storms. Majority of the key indices are there for a classic tornado day, but the big fly in the ointment - CINH, CapS, and the lack of decent convergence over Central OK. Most of that will be left along the dryline which will stay mostly west. Going out there, the environment isn't as favorable even though there is most instability. If we see the dryline punch east farther then we may be on to something.

Monday - Much weaker cap and a breakable one at that. Directional shear looks very good and this is just a classic setup for a typical severe weather day in Oklahoma. There is not really much to add here that I haven't already hit on. The one thing that draws my eye a bit is the weak mid level winds compared to the surface and upper levels. However, a 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity of 278 is pretty crazy high.

All good points there Venture and I might add that an LCL at 911mb on Monday at 00z will also be just another contributing parameter for tornado potential. I'm not so worried about weaker mid-level winds as fairly stout MLCAPE through those levels should be able to sustain (and add additional punch) to any rotating updraft.

Here's 00z Wed Venture (7pm Tuesday for others):

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013040412_F132_35.0000N_97.5000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013040412_F132_35.0000N_97.5000W_HODO.png

Here's 00z Wed Venture (7pm Tuesday for others):

Yeah I was avoiding the TwisterData product since it isn't as descriptive as what I was wanting to provide. We can read it just fine, but others may want to see the specific variables behind it all. :)

Yeah I was avoiding the TwisterData product since it isn't as descriptive as what I was wanting to provide. We can read it just fine, but others may want to see the specific variables behind it all. :)

Earl Barker's page is awesome. I just wish there was a way to copy the image with the white background instead of a clear background. Oh well.

Earl Barker's page is awesome. I just wish there was a way to copy the image with the white background instead of a clear background. Oh well.

Yeah it is. I started work on a stand alone application to produce Skew-Ts and generate all the various variables, but other projects are taking up my time right now.

Hmmm yeah I don't want tornadoes to happen when I'm at school Monday and Tuesday

It’s those Armageddon tornadoes that sweep the foundation clean and suck the bricks off the streets that scare me.
Are there any chances of those types of tornadoes in the forecast?
Please let me/us know.