During warned high risk day which are fairly rare even for Oklahoma I wish we took more proactive measures….
Like letting people leave work and dismissing school.
There are locations in the Deep South that let school out hours before the storms are expected to hit.

This may sound like a stupid question but why does it seem that tornadoes never form in the day and mostly during the late afternoon/evening hours?

This may sound like a stupid question but why does it seem that tornadoes never form in the day and mostly during the late afternoon/evening hours?

They can definitely form overnight or in the morning. It all comes down to instability and other conditions being favorable. Typically you need the day time heating to get the best instability.

Latest update from Norman...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013


.UPDATE...
COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH IN THE METRO AREA CURRENTLY LYING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO /73 OVER 68 AT WILL ROGERS AIRPORT AND 56 OVER
52 AT WILEY POST AIRPORT./ THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED OR STALLED THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SURFACE AND PERSIST NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS LIKELY ARE SIGNALS THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE
NORTH MUCH FARTHER. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
MAY START MOVING SOUTH AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ISSUE
IS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOOKS TO REMAIN SMALL SO STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY... MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD AND
DEVELOP EARLY /DEPENDING ON HOW SOON STRATUS THINS./ T 16Z
SOUNDING FROM OUN MAY SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS. THERE IS ALSO A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON... MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.


RESULTANT ISSUES ARE... /1/ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. THIS MEANS THAT THE WARM
FRONT AS A SOURCE OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE IDEAL AS ANY STORM WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IF IT GETS EVEN A SHORT
DISTANCE NORTH OF THE FRONT. IF WINDS STAY NORTHERLY IN THE COOL
SECTOR... THAT WILL NOT BE AN IDEAL WIND PROFILE EITHER. /2/ THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR. /3/ IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL RESULT FROM THE BALANCE OF DELAYED
WARMING DUE TO STRATUS AND THE APPARENT LOW CIN WHICH WOULD
OTHERWISE FAVOR EARLY AND/OR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. /4/ EVEN
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT... ELEVATED STORMS WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL WILL PERSIST.


CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DURING THE EVENING... STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DEVELOP
INTO A SQUALL LINE.


THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES /MORE THAN USUAL/ ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE... ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE COUNTERACTING
INFLUENCES OF CIN VS. DELAYED WARMING. BUT THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS... ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.


..SPEG.

TOR CON has given central OK a 7 now, this can't be good

Surface winds picking up south of warm front. A bulge is sort of forming just ahead of the dryline along the warm front of gusty south winds.

If this front moves a few miles north before initiation, OKC could be bullseye. Right now the front is stalled just N of OKC - this COULD mean that just S and E of OKC is in bigger threat window.

Honestly, with the front stalling right over the OKC metro area, I think the metro itself might be spared if it does indeed start pushing south again as a CF. To me, this looks like a Lawton-Purcell-Seminole and points E and SE event. That front is just too close for my liking and considering the trends we've seen this spring, cold air is definitely going to be an issue.

I would not be surprised if SPC trims there MDT risk back to the SE a bit in their 1130a outlook now that the front has stalled.

BTW -- appears the NAM wins again.

TOR CON has given central OK a 7 now, this can't be good

I take most of what the Weather Channel does with a significant grain of salt. I gave up on them as a good weather source a long time ago - they jumped on the hype train unfortunately.

Moderate Risk area really unchanged if not moved to the NW just a smidge.

New Outlook Text

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013


VALID 171630Z - 181200Z


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF KY/TN...


...SYNOPSIS...


A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOWER-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH BASE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL REACH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.


IN RESPONSE TO THESE UPPER-AIR DEVELOPMENTS...A LEE CYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL NM WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO NWRN TX BY 18/00Z BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY 18/12Z. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO THIS MIGRATORY CYCLONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS AS A WARM FRONT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STRETCH FROM CNTRL THROUGH SWRN OK INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL BY THE 17/21-18/00Z TIME FRAME. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN TX TODAY...LIKELY REACHING NWRN TX INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY BY PEAK HEATING. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF OK/TX AS A COLD FRONT.


...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...


12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED A POTENT COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G PER KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES WERE APPROACHING 8.5-9.0 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE PARAMETERS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.


TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPARENT WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO MO. HERE...A RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 114 FOR DETAILS.


STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.


FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX...STRONGER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DELAY STORM INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT TRIPLE POINT. DESPITE AN INITIAL WEAKNESS IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS IN THE 2.5-4 KM AGL LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-TRACKED/. AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF OK WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL GROW INCREASINGLY LARGE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.


STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

SPC actually moved the MDT risk more NW.

Few of us are now in the chat room. So feel free to join us. :)

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)


I'm there lurking

SPC actually moved the MDT risk more NW.

I don't get this when the Norman office outlook just said they font the front stalled.

What can cause a front to stall anyways?

Well the fronts are simply boundaries to the actual storm sysem, so as the system moves about - the fronts move with it.

There has been an uptick of reports on twitter of the foggy windows of death. Makes me think the warm front is still moving north

In TV weather news ......I just saw that Reed Timmer has joined KFOR TV 4

There has been an uptick of reports on twitter of the foggy windows of death. Makes me think the warm front is still moving north

You can actually see the front on radar in the metro. It is basically stationary and occasionally jogs north or south. I would say the Western ends of the front appear to be moving more north.

In TV weather news ......I just saw that Reed Timmer has joined KFOR TV 4

This is the greatest news in the history of OKC weather coverage

Dryline is on the move East.

Watch for cells around and just east of the Altus area that move NE.

In TV weather news ......I just saw that Reed Timmer has joined KFOR TV 4

Are you serious? Venture may have a stroke in the chat room.

If the front remains relatively stalled at its current location, what does that say about storms that form along the frontal boundary? Does that not suggest the possibility of multiple "waves" of storms forming/reforming/riding the front? That is, if a storm forms at point A along the frontal boundary, and goes to point B, isn't there a chance of redevelopment/retrace of the same general path?

Put another way, if you get hit by one storm along the front, in this configuration, getting hit again by a subsequent storm on the same path would be possible, wouldn't it? Or am I missing part of the dynamic here?

Per visible sat imagery, rapid thinning of clouds over all of S, SE, and E OK

is the cold front already moving through? Edmond temp dropped and has a north wind, also all on west okc it got cooler. so the threat for tornados and large hail is a lot less? didn't think
the cold front was suppose to hit till tonight?

is the cold front already moving through? Edmond temp dropped and has a north wind, also all on west okc it got cooler. so the threat for tornados and large hail is a lot less? didn't think
the cold front was suppose to hit till tonight?

That's the warm/stationary front that is wabbling.

Are you serious? Venture may have a stroke in the chat room.

I'm jumping with excitement. /sigh

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0493.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171809Z - 171945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
KS.

WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE
FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...
EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU.
THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND
THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX
EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN
TX.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF
THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE
CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT
IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W
THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.

..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BIEpzEkCAAAqdmD.jpg:large

From Twitter.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image2.jpg

Watch box is out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0116_radar.gif

WW 116 TORNADO OK TX 171820Z - 180400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15N BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 30SSW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /40WSW OSW - 26SSW SPS/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOVE MARSHALL
MAYES MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON WA****A

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...WHILE
DEVELOPING EASTWARD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Is this PDS?

Is this PDS?

It isn't flagged PDS, but it is still worded to indicate intense tornadoes.

Pretty Damn Serious?

As things start unfolding quickly (first cell now going up just across river in Texas)...I'll be focusing on the chat room to provide the quicker updates.

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

Pretty Damn Serious?

Sounds good to me. :)

I was gone for a bit, anything changed? Has the warm front moved yet?

No. There is an interesting show of sharp contrast where it has apparently stopped.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

I am becoming increasingly worried about the OKC metro. The triple point of this system is located WSW of the OKC area in between Hobart and Fort Cobb.

ANy storm that gets rooted along the warm front and becomes more of a NE mover as opposed to NNE mover, will likely follow along the warm front into the metro. This could be trains of supercells coming up from the altus area and riding along the front. Flooding and hail will be a large factor in addition to the tornado threat.

I am becoming increasingly worried about the OKC metro. The triple point of this system is located WSW of the OKC area in between Hobart and Fort Cobb.

ANy storm that gets rooted along the warm front and becomes more of a NE mover as opposed to NNE mover, will likely follow along the warm front into the metro. This could be trains of supercells coming up from the altus area and riding along the front. Flooding and hail will be a large factor in addition to the tornado threat.

Man, I knew that front resting across central OKC wasn't a good thing.

Here is a good map to keep track of how much added instability is ongoing over the state. This helps you determine the thickness of the cloud deck, when visible imagery can be misleading.


The brighter this map gets, the more PDS this event gets for later this afternoon.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.SRAD.grad.png

I'm a complete weather n00b, so many thanks for helping keep n00bs like us in check. Noticing that the colors have indeed gotten brighter than this morning... how does this play into the tornado potential with everything else now?

I am becoming increasingly worried about the OKC metro. The triple point of this system is located WSW of the OKC area in between Hobart and Fort Cobb.

ANy storm that gets rooted along the warm front and becomes more of a NE mover as opposed to NNE mover, will likely follow along the warm front into the metro. This could be trains of supercells coming up from the altus area and riding along the front. Flooding and hail will be a large factor in addition to the tornado threat.

How many times have we talked about the warm front tornado machines of the past?

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/kfdr_20130417_b.png

Unless it is just me, that is some monster inflow pulling the frontal boundary back into the storm.

Altus cell is already moving more NE as opposed to NNE. This is the beginning, folks.


I concur venture, this could be a very scary scenario in a few hours here in OKC and points south.

one of those storms looks like it's heading for OKC

Venture -- help me out on this chat room deal. I've logged in via Twitter but am not seeing my comments anywhere. What is your screen name in there?

WxSpotlight is the name I'm posting under. Are you seeing anything?

Right turning storms are normal as they intensify but it sounds like the warm front only encourages this further which would be bad news for the metro in about 3/4 hours?

For those following at home, here is a link to the chat Venture79 is participating in:

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

I was wondering what the timeline looks like on this for zero hour in the OKC metro? Still too early to guess?

For those following at home, here is a link to the chat Venture79 is participating in:

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

I'm still in there lurking and watching

So are 70 other people right now. LOL This is one way to stress test the new server. :-P

new cell popping up

So are 70 other people right now. LOL This is one way to stress test the new server. :-P

Real quick - are you doing this on shared hosting or a dedicated or semi-dedicated server? 70 shouldn't be too bad.

Real quick - are you doing this on shared hosting or a dedicated or semi-dedicated server? 70 shouldn't be too bad.

Oh no...70 isn't bad at all. It's one of my own server boxes that I have. I don't care for paying people to do something I can on my own for less. :)

Oh no...70 isn't bad at all. It's one of my own server boxes that I have. I don't care for paying people to do something I can on my own for less. :)
Absolutely! Good luck tonight and thanks for your work.

HRRR not too far off in picking up activity in far SW corner. Let's see if it expands up the lawton - OKC line as predicted in the 23z model.

Watching OKC weather in Portland, Or.

Latest from Norman.

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013


...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR SW OKLAHOMA AND WRN N TEXAS...


SUPERCELL STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER SW OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM. STORM NORTH OF ALTUS VERY
CLOSE TO WARM FRONT AND STORM ACTUALLY ALTERING LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH HIGHER VALUES OF HELICITY NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...STORM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF LOW LEVEL MESO FORMATION/TORNADOGENESIS. IF STORM CAN MAINTAIN
PROGRESSION CLOSE TO BOUNDARY POSITION AND NOT BECOME ELEVATED NORTH
OF WARM FRONT...MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR FORT COBB AND MAKE WAY INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKC METRO 5 TO 6 PM. AREAS TOWARD HOBART AND
EVENTUALLY WA****A AND CADDO COUNTIES NEED TO BE DILIGENT.


STORM JUST NORTHWEST OF VERNON TEXAS WELL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND
APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING STORM SPLIT AS IT INTENSIFIES/DEVELOPS
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNDRAFT. LEFT MOVER WILL POSE VERY LARGE HAIL RISK AND
RIGHT MOVER COULD POSE TORNADO/HAIL RISK TOWARD FREDERICK AND
LAWTON. LAWTON AREA...IF STORM CAN BE MAINTAINED...COULD BE AFFECT
4 TO 5 PM.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/kfdr_20130417_d.png

looks like Warm front is moving North a little bit