North and West OKC are at 32F now.

However with how hard the rain is coming down and the sun rising soon. It shouldn't really be a problem.

If it was 28-30F we would have major problems.

The yard and garden are pretty well flooded.....this is just what the dr ordered.

...wet....cold....

Any rain gauge reports?

1" of rain so far in most of OKC, a little heavier heading towards Norman.


Trees and power lines beginning to sag in N OKC, doesn't look power-outage causing at this time, but it is accumulating. The radiation from the sun should help prevent things from getting worse unless it keeps getting colder.

Looks like one more moderate band of precip and then we are done.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png

Overall good rainfall. Though I question the amounts in the Northwest, because I know they got more than the reporting stations are showing.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Looks like active pattern remains. Another big storm this time next week.

All of the OKC mesonet stations are frozen over.

Looks like active pattern remains. Another big storm this time next week.

Is it going to be an arctic/winter storm or your more typical spring event?

Advisory now includes Cleveland, Stephens, and McClain Counties. Even though things are almost done. :)

Advisory for everyone else extended to 3PM as well.

MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...DUNCAN
1244 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.


* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON.


* MAIN IMPACT: A NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
VEGETATION. POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK UNDER THE
WEIGHT OF ICE AND THE FORCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.


* OTHER IMPACTS: ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SLEET MAY BE MORE DOMINANT
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...RESULTING IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON
ROADS... ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

Does next week's event look to be arctic or more of a typical spring storm?

Seeing lots of reports of tree limbs down in central and west OKC.

a fair amount of bradford pears split in my neighborhood in northwest edmond. those seem to be the main trees damaged.

Seeing lots of reports of tree limbs down in central and west OKC.

Saw several broken limbs in the Mayfair area

On the SE side everything but the roads covered in ice. So far no broken branches in our yard, thank goodness. We lost too many several years back.

Not unexpected...freeze tonight. This is why I don't plant anything until the end of the month. :-P

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013


OKZ013-019-020-025>031-037>042-044>046-050-TXZ085>088-110515-
/O.CON.KOUN.FZ.W.0001.130411T0600Z-130411T1400Z/
NOBLE-LOGAN-PAYNE-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-
PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-
BAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...FREDERICK...LAWTON...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...
SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...MARI ETTA...VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR
401 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013


...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
THURSDAY...


A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
THURSDAY.


* TEMPERATURE: LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES.


* IMPACTS: THE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY HARM PLANTS THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO FREEZING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MOVE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS TO AVOID DAMAGE FROM FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

Winter isn't over yet.

It will warm up early next week and then we have a repeat of this coming next week. Bad news for those who are ready for spring to finally arrive.

A look at yesterday afternoon's cumulus clouds to the west of Stillwater, which tried to, but failed to break out of the atmospheric cap to become storms.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/492013_2.jpg

Winter isn't over yet.

It will warm up early next week and then we have a repeat of this coming next week. Bad news for those who are ready for spring to finally arrive.

No one in Oklahoma is ready for warmer temperatures than me! =(

Next week's storm chances: Severe Outlook ? Week of 4/14 | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=127)

After a crazy event that went initially from a potential tornado threat to a legitimate ice storm in parts of Oklahoma, it is time to look ahead to the next week and what it may bring.

Quickly, Saturday 4/13 doesn’t look like it will be anything. Maybe a chance of storms far Northern Oklahoma but latest models really keep any precip well north into Kansas. Instability is meager at best, so it isn’t really worth focusing on right now.

Sunday 4/14

Moisture return will begin, but will be relatively slow per 12Z NAM. It keeps 55°F dewpoints out of most of Oklahoma until late afternoon, whereas 12Z GFS has them in place early. Overall GFS is running about 5 degrees higher in the dewpoints than NAM, so staying conservative would be to follow NAM right now. Both setup a dryline in Western Oklahoma with NAM having it close to US 183 by early evening and GFS keeping it right inside the border from Texas. Instability is pretty weak, less than 1000 j/kg over much of the state per NAM, but GFS does bump it up to 1000-1500 j/kg over Central and Eastern OK. Right now the best chance for any storms will be over Northern OK, but we’ll see how this evolves.

Monday 4/15

Moisture return looks a little better, but this is also based on the GFS since we are out of the NAM window now. Appears we’ll have a warm front feature over the Northern half of the state with a dryline coming in from the SW. Instability looks better this day and moisture convergence looks along the boundaries. Forecast soundings also look good for a severe weather setup. So the main question will be moisture return and if there will be quality low level moisture for storms to feed off of. GFS, even with its potentially overblown moisture return, has at least some isolated convection starting between 4-7PM in Central OK near the warm from. Storm movement looks like it’ll be mostly E to ENE at about 30 mph.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/12187.GIF
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130415.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130415.png)

Tuesday April 16

Setup on Tuesday looks similar to Monday. Moisture coming back in, higher chances for precip, and looks like we could see a classic warm front severe weather setup. Not much to add over Tuesday except the Warm front will be a little further south, but still the same general area. Storms are looking to form along the dryline in Western North Texas and also along the warm front. Storms that get rooted on the warm front will be in a very favorable shear environment to rotate, so that needs to be watched. We’ve seen on several occasions in Oklahoma where a warm front can just be a tornado machine with training storms that are rooted in the boundary. These setups a much more frequent in Kansas and Colorado as well. Would expect this to be a slight risk area near the boundaries for that day.

http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/17951.GIF
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130416.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130416.png)

Wednesday April 17th

Storm system will begin to push through and a cold front will sweep through the state through the day. We could see storms early ahead of the front across Eastern and Central Oklahoma. The front will be near I-44 by 4PM and sweeping south after. So there may be a window for severe weather in central sections, but it will be early in the afternoon. I highlighted the best risk area for the day over Southeast Oklahoma which will have the highest instability and all around best environment.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130417.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130417.png)

Thursday April 18th
No storm chances.

Friday April 19th
No storm chances.

Saturday April 20th
Moisture starts to return slowly but doesn’t look like anything will be of concern at all.

KWTV 9 says we could have another freeze next week?

Depends on the how much cold air sticks around behind the cold front coming through. So the potential is there.

The latest we've ever had a freeze is May 3rd, so its not completely out of the question.

First Autumn and Last Spring Freeze Data and Charts for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-freeze-okc)

Now both KWTV-9 & KFOR-4 say we could have another freeze late next week?

Now both KWTV-9 & KFOR-4 say we could have another freeze late next week?

Relax. See my last post.

I'm so mad, but there is no one to take it out on. Venture, next time you're up in the clouds, will you have word with them, for me? ;)

Depends on the how much cold air sticks around behind the cold front coming through. So the potential is there.

The latest we've ever had a freeze is May 3rd, so its not completely out of the question.

First Autumn and Last Spring Freeze Data and Charts for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-freeze-okc)

It's very rare for there to be freezing temperatures after April 15th, in fact its only happened a few times in over a century. But Winter 2012-13, which got a very late start, doesn't seem to want to end. It won't surprise me if it happens this year. Somebody needs to sue the groundhog.

It's very rare for there to be freezing temperatures after April 15th, in fact its only happened a few times in over a century. But Winter 2012-13, which got a very late start, doesn't seem to want to end. It won't surprise me if it happens this year. Somebody needs to sue the groundhog.

People need to stop believing a woodchuck. :-P

"Hey, you dang woodchucks..."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q6Ti9xCX_M

So how much longer before we stop having these arctic blasts every few days and can get on to true spring?

Looks like a chance for a few showers or storms tomorrow is better.


Tuesday into Wednesday next week looks like another soaker with cold air that follows, much like this week, only looks not as cold.

SPC has issued a 30% severe risk outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Tuesday covers nearly all of the state except far NW and far SE OK.
Wednesday is just a hair north of I-44 and to the southeast.

12Z models will be finishing up here in the next hour or two and I'll update the maps then. :)

So how much longer before we stop having these arctic blasts every few days and can get on to true spring?


It's going to be Spring for a week and then go straight to summer.

Going to hold off on doing any forecast updates right now. 12Z models shifted a bit too much for me from Monday through mid next week. The morning runs tend to push the front through Monday instead and then struggles to have really anything in Oklahoma (severe wise) next week. Whereas they have been pretty consistent up until this point.

Overall precip wise still looks decent over Eastern OK, Western OK might see a half inch of rain next week.

SO is there gonna be severe weather next week? I heard there might be a similar scenario as last weeks threat

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict severe weather for the 23rd through the 28th without looking at any models.... I only need to see the tents going up for the Festival of the Arts.

SO is there gonna be severe weather next week? I heard there might be a similar scenario as last weeks threat

Like I said, I don't like how the models have shifted this morning so going to see how the next few runs go. As of right now I would still say yes, there will be severe weather in the state. Where is the question.


I'm going to go out on a limb and predict severe weather for the 23rd through the 28th without looking at any models.... I only need to see the tents going up for the Festival of the Arts.

Cheater. :-P

SO is there gonna be severe weather next week? I heard there might be a similar scenario as last weeks threat

Right now there is a possible ice storm going from Wednesday into Thursday. Predicted highs right now are in the low 40s but as it gets closer, that will likely be revised down to the mid-30s.

Hopefully next week is winter's last hurrah.

Scattered showers and maybe a few storms are popping up now over Northern and Central OK (south of I-40). Movement generally east. Nothing to worry about severe weather wise.

SPC has risk outlooks in the state Sunday through Wednesday...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...

...SRN KS/NRN OK/MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A
POSITION FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN KS BY 15/00Z. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TO NEAR THE UPPER MS RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...TRAILING SWWD ACROSS NRN MO TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S SHOULD ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
INTO SRN KS ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE WIND SHIFT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...DUE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING ACROSS NWRN OK...THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MINIMAL
INHIBITION WILL EXIST BY 22Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LOCAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH SRN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO NRN OK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ENID AT 14/22Z EXHIBITS
SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITH A SFC T/TD OF 79/58. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE WHERE MOISTURE AXIS IMPINGES ON COLD FRONT. SUBSEQUENT
MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INTO SERN KS AIDED IN PART BY
SURGING COLD FRONT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THERE
MAY BE SOME PROPENSITY FOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT UPDRAFTS AND LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG STRONGER FORCED PORTIONS OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS MO INTO ERN IA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
A WEAKER INSTABILITY AIRMASS BUT STRONG SHEAR WOULD OTHERWISE
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXTENDED 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS NWD ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO SRN IL...

...ERN OK TO SRN IL...

IN THE WAKE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAK
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. EARLY MORNING FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO
STALL BY MID DAY PARTLY DUE TO STRONG HEATING ACROSS NORTH TX/SERN
OK. IN THE ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIABATIC
HEATING NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT SUGGEST
INHIBITION WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S. WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT GENERATE QPF...GFS DOES
DEVELOP SCT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK INTO NCNTRL
TX. GIVEN THAT 40KT OF SFC-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT...SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT ACROSS MAINLY ERN OK.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY-MID WEEK BEFORE NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG BACK SIDE
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEEP SFC
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE PERIOD BUT RATHER A WEAK WAVE SHOULD BE
INDUCED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SWRN TX
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PENETRATION OVER THE PLAINS.
MULTIPLE DAYS OF FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN
SHOULD RESULT IN MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BAND OF POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DIABATIC HEATING AND
FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SHUNTS DEEPER MOISTURE/ASCENT EAST.
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERTURNED BY MID WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE DOWNSTREAM IS LOWER THAN ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION.

It appears there will be several chances for severe weather this week, including all modes of weather. The risk will kick off Sunday and then pick back up mid week.

Sunday April 14th

SPC currently has outlined a slight risk over North Central and parts of Northwest OK for Sunday. The main concern here is existing cloud cover and the potential we won’t get a lot of heating to allows storms to develop further south. The risk map included here is a bit further south than the SPC’s solution right now. This is based on 12Z NAM and GFS blend. Both call for storms to develop along the border and through northern OK by 4PM lasting through the evening. NAM goes a bit further and between 7PM and 10PM brings storms south of I-40 through Central OK. This area has the better instability and shear conditions, so even though it is a slight chance it felt warranted to put the possibility in there. Threats tomorrow include hail, wind and tornadoes. The extent of the severe risk isn’t all that great, so we aren’t talking about a widespread outbreak by any stretch.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130414-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130414-2.png)

Monday April 15th

Appears to be a transition day. The front will start to move back north as a warm front late in the day over the area, but wash out over the Panhandles as winds start to switch back to the Southeast there. The dryline will still be there for the most part over Northern Texas and Southern OK. NAM keeps precip development over NE OK along/ahead of the warm front, whereas GFS also has development along the dryline and warm front in Southern OK. It moves this precip north over night into Central/NE OK.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130415-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130415-2.png)

Tuesday April 16th

Severe risk becomes more widespread as the warm front starts to become more stationary over Northern or Central OK. A dryline will also sharpen up over the western parts of Oklahoma. Main risk areas initially are going to be near the boundaries but will expand overnight as convection increases in coverage.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130416-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130416-2.png)

Wednesday April 17th

Severe threat continues Wednesday as the main front finally pushed through the state. There could be some left over convection from Tuesday still on going Wednesday morning. The extent of this convection will have a part in how much severe weather develops on Thursday. Should things clear out and heating takes place, the severe risk will increase greatly over Central and Eastern OK. At the very least, there will be a severe squall line along the front .

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130417-2.png (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/20130417-2.png)

Here are the improvements in the drought based on recent precip. Keep in mind...short term drought conditions are not the same as long term drought. While this shows improvement, we have a LONG way to go. IMO, the major cities just need to have water restrictions in place for the entire year to allow the lakes and ground water to recover.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

HRRR's latest run shows where we could see the line of severe storms form this evening.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013041418/t5/cref_t5sfc_f05.png

Isolated cells are starting to pop between Fairview and Enid. Movement ENE at about 25 mph.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0473.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...N-CNTRL/NE OK...FAR W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142236Z - 150030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO A MODERATELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE
BUT A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE
KS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS MIXED TO AROUND 800 MB /PER RAP
SOUNDINGS/ AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB IS LIMITING
INSTABILITY...WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
KG. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...SINCE 22Z
RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT VALUES THAT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED WELL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FARTHER S...SOME TALLER CU HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF WEAK TRIPLE POINT
NEAR MAJOR COUNTY OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG.

GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 45 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/HAIL EXISTS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/14/2013

So far, like in the description above, wheres it's really at is a strong solid line in southeastern Kansas while back building into Oklahoma near Bartlesville. There's a storm west of Stillwater, but it has spitted. Aside from two or three small heavy areas, it doesn't amount to much.

Heaviest and really only storm right now is the cell near Mulhall just north of Guthrie. Moving general east to slight south of east. Hail to 0.85" right now and very heavy rain. Its intensity is picking up so it could go severe soon.

Watch up...

WW 107 SEVERE TSTM OK 150010Z - 150600Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NE BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 50SW TUL/TULSA OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /29WSW OSW - 47SW TUL/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-071-073-081-083-097-101-103-105-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-150600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0107.130415T0010Z-130415T0600Z/


OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0107_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...

DISCUSSION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVE ACROSS NORTH
CNTRL/NE OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ACROSS REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONFIRMS OUN RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWING
APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S/ JUST ABOUT TO INTERCEPT THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTH. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY
LLJ AND MDT TO STRONG DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE
TNGT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.

Storm moving between Stillwater and Perkins is holdings it own. Small hail likely (and has been reported). There is an area of some enhanced winds on the south side of the storm near 92nd and Country Club. Could see some higher wind gusts in this area.

The storm didn't amount to much in Stillwater. The airport got 0. The west side got .04 and the east side got .02. Source wunderground.com. However, a reporting station between Perkins and Stillwater where it was reported to be extra strong got .22. The heaviest meso report in the area was from Blackwell Lake with .20. Storm continues on SE of Cushing with a somewhat smaller very heavy area.

It's my prediction that the west side of the severe thunderstorm watch is finished with storms.

This watch box is probably history soon. NWS Norman has already cleared out the counties in their CWA except for Lincoln. Nothing was able to get established except for that one cell that went south of Stillwater. Only a few light showers left but pretty much all convection is gone now.

Here are the improvements in the drought based on recent precip. Keep in mind...short term drought conditions are not the same as long term drought. While this shows improvement, we have a LONG way to go. IMO, the major cities just need to have water restrictions in place for the entire year to allow the lakes and ground water to recover.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

April 9 precedes much of the latest precip. Not sure why they didn't update it after all of the rain.

The cut off point for the drought monitor is Tuesday 7am. Anything after that is not used until next week. The report is then issued publicly on Thursday. Cheers!

Watch box is officially dead. Yawn. I always wonder why they bother to issue watches on these very marginal setups and then never put them out when there are several storms popping up and stay severe for hours. Silly people. :-P

Thanks for drought monitor post Damon. I couldn't remember when they did the actual update.

00Z NAM is in, waiting on GFS before posting any updates. Quick highlight...tomorrow and tuesday, per NAM, look pretty tame or out of Central OK. Wednesday looks like pretty significant. ECMWF has been the steady model that moved the front through the I-44 corridor in the afternoon. We'll have to see how that trends and if it holds things back as well now.

SPC outlooks...

Slight Risk today from South Central OK through NE OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN/SOUTHERN OK TO
OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN ONTARIO...ALL WHILE A STRONG
POLAR JET/UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
TX/SOUTHERN OK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS...INCLUDING SOME SEVERE.

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK TO OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST WILL DECELERATE
EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY STALLING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION
LATER TODAY FROM NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL IL.
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...RELATIVELY NEBULOUS BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATELY STRONG/BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL FLOW...AND BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS/GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO PUTS INTO QUESTION THE
EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH PEAK HEATING...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TONIGHT...LIKELY FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST A BIT BEHIND /NORTH OF/ THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO IL/INDIANA.

ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/CONVERGENCE COULD EXIST NEAR THE ANGLING SURFACE FRONT
AND/OR WEAK SURFACE LOW/ADJACENT DRYLINE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW TSTMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AMID LOWER 60S/PERHAPS
SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /UP TO 2000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ BY
PEAK HEATING. IF/WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...AMPLE INSTABILITY/VEERING
WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
ANY SUCH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET...WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT NOCTURNALLY BECOMING MORE PROBABLE
FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS/MIDWEST.

AS MENTIONED...TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE PROBABLE /AND OF
GREATER COVERAGE/ TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS
INTO DOWNSTATE IL/INDIANA. SEVERE HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AND A
RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELD ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. EVEN WHILE STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE OCCURRING
COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERED LOW LEVEL JET...THE
NEAR-FRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
CINH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL.

Day 2 Risk Outlook has a Slight Risk for much of Central and Western Oklahoma

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...

HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL ENSURE SFC RIDGING
EXTENDS ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE TUESDAY. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DEMARCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND
DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER NWRN TX.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 90S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AROUND
ABI. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE STALLED FRONT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND THIS SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 22Z. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS NEAR THE DRYLINE HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE...POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. DURING
THE EVENING HOURS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
INDUCED AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH WARM SECTOR
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID 60S AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ATOP COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN OK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING NNEWD INTO KS. HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH
ELEVATED ACTIVITY BUT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD CERTAINLY BE
NOTED WITH ANY SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS OVER NWRN TX. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AND FOR
THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE 10 PERCENT SIG HAIL...THOUGH VERY
LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED AND STRONGLY SHEARED STORM.

I knew when 00Z NAM came in that something was up for Wednesday. 00Z GFS came in highlighting something similar. SPC has upgrade Wednesday already to a Moderate Risk. This is a DAY 3 Moderate Risk. We have had 8 of these in the past based on current and 4 of them were upgrade to High Risks.

Below is the Day 3 probability table to just highlight how significant this can be. They can't go any higher on a Day 3.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day3_seetext.jpg

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2013

Awesome. Taking students to Stillwater for State solo/ensemble contest on Wednesday afternoon. Can't wait.

Any real weather differences between last week's dud and Wednesday?

Awesome. Taking students to Stillwater for State solo/ensemble contest on Wednesday afternoon. Can't wait.

Oh, dear, just realized I think my daughter is going to that this week. But I don't think she said Stillwater... * sigh *

*Hate* springtime storm season. Hate it. Lived here 47.9 of my 48 years, love Oklahoma to pieces, but *hate* severe storm season.

Any real weather differences between last week's dud and Wednesday?

Completely different setup. Can't really compare the two.