I will wager a large pizza that convection fires just east of the metro. Any takers?

You mean like every other April storm system for the most part? lol

I will wager a large pizza that convection fires just east of the metro. Any takers?

I sure wouldn't bet against ya. Cloud deck thickening and lots of cumulus around here sure acting like they'd like to start trouble.... :D

Nice blue sky in Norman. Looking at radar, there are a couple very weak echoes showing up in Canadian county now - behind the front.

It's trying! Another cell is going up in Knox County TX. We'll see if that one can make it.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130409_2114.png

So if these storms don't fire up, will that affect wintry precip at all?

I think one of the main issues thus far today (other than the cap) is that looking at the 18z OUN sounding you can see the shear vector pretty much parallel to this surging cold front. You can see on the vis sat loop the one tower that tried to fire in far SW OK that was undercut by the front and then the tower itself blasted NE (behind the front). It's one thing for convection to fire along the front, but when your shear vectors aren't pushing the storm off the front the likelihood of any sustained development rapidly decreases.

Storm in TX is dying back out now.

This cold front is a major troll.

Starting to get development back in the TX PH and far western OK now. So maybe we'll just get the freezing rain and forget the actual Spring weather. :-P

The rain out west is in below freezing air so its all ice.

So....., are you guys actually ROOTING for destructive hail and wind? That's no different than rooting for massive wildfires.

So....., are you guys actually ROOTING for destructive hail and wind? That's no different than rooting for massive wildfires.

You don't follow these threads very much do you?

No one roots for any destruction to property. However forecasting weather is a science and is fun to test your skills. Also several of us appreciate the amazing power that drives many of the storms we have around here and respect it greatly.

So....., are you guys actually ROOTING for destructive hail and wind? That's no different than rooting for massive wildfires.

Lol, that's funny because hail and wind usually has rain with it that helps prevents massive wildfires.

So....., are you guys actually ROOTING for destructive hail and wind? That's no different than rooting for massive wildfires.

Don't take it out of context. Thunderstorms are a very intricate and fascinating scientific process. Very interesting if you ask me, and they make life less boring. :wink:

Also, wildfires serve a very beneficial purpose to the environment. I don't wish for anyone's home to be destroyed by one, but they serve a purpose, same as storms.

So....., are you guys actually ROOTING for destructive hail and wind? That's no different than rooting for massive wildfires.

Taking interest in something that is out of any control other than atmospheric conditions has no effect on what actually occurs.

It's clear that the cold front was just too fast and far ahead of the main piece of upper level support (cooler air aloft) to bust through today's beast of a cap. This can be seen with the current development well behind the front as Venture mentioned previously. Had the front and upper level energy aligned, I think we would have seen a verification of forecasts for severe hail/wind.

It's clear that the cold front was just too fast and far ahead of the main piece of upper level support (cooler air aloft) to bust through today's beast of a cap. This can be seen with the current development well behind the front as Venture mentioned previously. Had the front and upper level energy aligned, I think we would have seen a verification of forecasts for severe hail/wind.

Mmhmm you nailed it. This front wasn't suppose to barrel through for another 5 hours or so. Which would be almost perfect with the energy moving in now. The bad thing...now that it is here...its popping up precip in areas already below freezing. At this point I almost feel that is where our energy needs to be focused now for tonight.

I will wager a large pizza that convection fires just east of the metro. Any takers?

There's stormy but not real mean looking clouds west of Stillwater, but, so far, just showing as a wind shift line on radar.

Storms out west have 0.75" hail reported with them right now.

It's clear that the cold front was just too fast and far ahead of the main piece of upper level support (cooler air aloft) to bust through today's beast of a cap. This can be seen with the current development well behind the front as Venture mentioned previously. Had the front and upper level energy aligned, I think we would have seen a verification of forecasts for severe hail/wind.

So watch out eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

So, is this the 4th storm system this year the "news" has been wrong on??? lol, and to the person that asked if we're rooting for these severe storms, I am, I love exciting weather, sorry. lol :P Now I have to go dig up my plants for the THIRD TIME this year, but it's really my own fault. Where is global warming when you need it ;)

This is funny.

3631

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)2m (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/321747561390145536)
Don't be surprised to see sub-freezing svr t-storm warnings tonight! Frzg rain and severe hail at the same time in spots! #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

Don't take it out of context. Thunderstorms are a very intricate and fascinating scientific process. Very interesting if you ask me, and they make life less boring. :wink:

Also, wildfires serve a very beneficial purpose to the environment. I don't wish for anyone's home to be destroyed by one, but they serve a purpose, same as storms.

I totally agree they are fascinating. I haven't studied meteorology, but I can appreciate the complexity (degree in applied math).

Looks like SW OK is finally going to go.

Cells popping up now from Minco back to west of Lawton. Storm down in Baylor Co TX is now severe.

You don't follow these threads very much do you?

No one roots for any destruction to property. However forecasting weather is a science and is fun to test your skills. Also several of us appreciate the amazing power that drives many of the storms we have around here and respect it greatly.

I do follow them during "risky" days because you guys are awesome. :) It just seems like some posters are actually dissapointed when there is not massive hail and tornadoes.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman

NWS Norman‏@NWSNorman1h
Parts of Oklahoma are 50-60 degrees colder than they were at this time yesterday! #okwx pic.twitter.com/6fRLMa64M9

Sounds like a severe thunderstorm watch can be expected shortly based on the latest tweet from the NWS. Having elevated severe thunderstorms over a near- or sub-freezing surface layer is just ridiculous. I love the Plains, lol.

Cell near Medicine Park and another near Grandfield now, both below severe levels. Cell north of Gage in NW OK may be severe shortly.

OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) WW 86 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 092235Z - 100600Z http://1.usa.gov/bjHcdO?OUN (http://t.co/29y24mVf38)

WW 86 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 092235Z - 100600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/ - 45N HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /30SSW SPS - 17SW SLN/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASH!TA WOODS WOODWARD

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0086_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 535
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTH OF HUTCHINSON
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATCH AREA. STORMS WILL BE BEHIND A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

I can't recall ever seeing a severe tstorm watch in sub-freezing air.

I can't recall ever seeing a severe tstorm watch in sub-freezing air.

In about 1972/1973 or so there was a documented tornado in southern Oklahoma that occurred while it was sleeting.

This is sort of scary... The probability of getting greater than half an inch of ice has appeared. Before it was just .25".

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hicez_ge.50_2013041000f024.gif

I was just outside during the instant temperature drop. Pretty cool! ... no pun intended.

I can't recall ever seeing a severe tstorm watch in sub-freezing air.

Maybe it is The Weather Apocalypse predicted on the Inca Calendar.
Perhaps PPanda has exactly the right plants to enhance the viewing of The Event.
(from the rosetta stone of obscure references: refer to post 200 ^^^)

Did I hear someone placing bets on weather events?
Has the Elks Club, the VFW, the American Legion and/or The Rotary heard about this?

Quick surface map with radar...

West of the White line is below freezing.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130409_Tuesday-current6pm.png

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)2m (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/321747561390145536)
Don't be surprised to see sub-freezing svr t-storm warnings tonight! Frzg rain and severe hail at the same time in spots! #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

In my 48 years here in the great state of Oklahoma, I cannot remember ever hearing of such a thing. Hail and freezing rain in the same storm!?!?

Quick surface map with radar...

West of the White line is below freezing.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130409_Tuesday-current6pm.png

I like how that front goes from fairly straight from Texas to Lawton, then bulges out just so it can get OKC early on :)

This is sort of scary... The probability of getting greater than half an inch of ice has appeared. Before it was just .25".

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hicez_ge.50_2013041000f024.gif

This is potentially horrendous.

In my 48 years here in the great state of Oklahoma, I cannot remember ever hearing of such a thing. Hail and freezing rain in the same storm!?!?

Well...when was the big ice storm...4 years ago? We had thunderstorms during it, so its kinda the same thing...just that we didn't have hail with it. Just consider the hail REALLY BIG sleet. ;)

Guess we've still got a couple hours before anything down at Lawton would head this way....

Beautiful evening to be out on Mount Scott. Storm moving in from the south with hail up to 0.55" right now. NW winds sustained at 33 mph gusting to 43 mph. Air temp...49. Sounds relaxing doesn't it? :)

So will OKC get ice or not?

So will OKC get ice or not?

Looks probable, but lets see how this convection continues to develop first.

This is where we stand now with the storms and freezing line.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png

I looked at the KOTV website this afternoon. The current temperature was 79 and there was a Winter Weather Advisory in the upper left corner of the screen. That's crazy. :rolleyes:

It really feels like its January, not April.

The bad thing is all the budding trees and greening grass will probably be dormant again by the weekend. We will have to wait until mid-late May before things start looking like spring outside.

It really feels like its January, not April.

The bad thing is all the budding trees and greening grass will probably be dormant again by the weekend. We will have to wait until mid-late May before things start looking like spring outside.

I bet they'll be fine. Three years ago there were 10 inches of snow on the ground in late March. Trees were just fine and didn't lose leaves.

I bet they'll be fine. Three years ago there were 10 inches of snow on the ground in late March. Trees were just fine and didn't lose leaves.

Maybe they are more hardy here. In the Southeast, if it gets below about 28*F after leaves are out, everything dies. It got down to 15 degrees around this time, everything returned to dormancy, and it wasn't until the last week of May things started to come back.

Gage

07:53 PM

Thunderstorm Freezing Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy

28ºF

Finally getting some development locally. Scattered showers now popping up from West Norman to Newscastle south to to Lindsey back over to near Maysville. Movement NNW to due N.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0414.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/S-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL KS...FAR
WRN/NWRN OK...FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 100022Z - 100245Z

SUMMARY...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL/ERN NEB ARE OCCURRING IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO SUB-FREEZING NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR
ABOVE THE FREEZING SURFACE AIRMASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SLEET AS WELL AS FREEZING RAIN.

DISCUSSION...SLOPED ASCENT OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG BUT
SHALLOW COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED NEAR 800 MB IS
AIDING IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL/ERN NEB. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER OR IN
VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A 1 KM DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS...WITH 4-8
DEG C WARM NOSE POSITIONED BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THUS...STORMS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SLEET IN
ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN. RISK OF LARGE HAIL ALSO EXISTS...REFER TO
WW/S 86 AND 87 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..GARNER.. 04/10/2013

Road Report...

TROOP I- CIMARRON AND TEXAS COUNTIES ARE RECEIVING ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. NO ADVERSE ROAD CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. BEAVER, HARPER, ELLIS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES ARE REPORTING SMALL HAIL, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. BEAVER, HARPER, ELLIS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES ARE REPORTING SLICK ROADS. 041013 1935 PAT

It really feels like its January, not April.

The bad thing is all the budding trees and greening grass will probably be dormant again by the weekend. We will have to wait until mid-late May before things start looking like spring outside.

Wrong, once the daytime temperature gets back into the 70's and night temps in the 50's, the grass, plants, and trees will continue to green and grow, as long as we have adequate moisture.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0418.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS TO NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 100151Z - 100245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ACROSS
WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW.

DISCUSSION...850MB FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR OF
DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND REMAIN PRODUCTIVE IN GENERATING TSTMS. 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM OUN/LMN/TOP EXHIBIT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
1500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AND AMPLE BUOYANCY EXISTS ATOP ARCTIC AIRMASS
FOR UPRIGHT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDS EWD.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2013

Watching the precip around OKC and it's as if there is a force field around the city. It's reminiscent of the recent forecast of snow we were supposed to get until a hole developed over OKC, and everyone around us got a huge dump.

Current rundown. Large line of storms with freezing rain and sleet running from Cherokee to Fairview to Arapaho to Cordell to Mangum to Hollis. Some areas in that line are at 33 right now, so it isn't all freezing. However the freezing line is moving further east.

Further south we have a second area of storms. These are severe. They are moving NNE producing large hail.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...


* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT


* AT 942 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELECTRA...MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

This shows an area of up to a half inch of ice.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_30HR.gif

Wind just knocked the power out in all of El Reno

WOW!

It's here and it's pissed off! Radar looks like a mix of horrors rolling through.

Why didn't this happen in December/January?

OKC has dodged a bullet thus far. Sitting at 33F. A lot of really nice rain from these waves of storms.