anyone familiar with how 1-month old roofs hold up to the hail northwest edmond got last night?

You know I've always thought it would be neat if someone found a way to genetically engineer certain crops to withstand drought and freezes. You make TONS AND TONS of money if you did that and patented it. If no one does, maybe I could give it a shot lol, 10-15 years of research and dedication and surely something would breakthrough.

Anyhow, it is strange. I've lived here my whole life pretty much, except for the 5 years I lived in Dallas, but it seems very strange when compared to most other places. I've even had relatives from Colorado range say that our weather is nuts, now that is saying something. The other thing is, it will suck if goes from being this cold to a straight 3 months of 100+ degrees which is probably what will happen lol

Well I always say...nature is about balance. Things average out over time. This planet has been around a lot longer than us and has done pretty well so far. :)

Hopefully we'll have a relatively cool summer to keep things balanced out. I don't think many will complain if average highs in July are in the 70s, but I also know it isn't logical. LOL

As far as the farmers. Sometimes old habits are hard to break. There are also plenty out there though that work the system and take the government bailout checks cut every year for crop damage.

You know I've always thought it would be neat if someone found a way to genetically engineer certain crops to withstand drought and freezes. You make TONS AND TONS of money if you did that and patented it. If no one does, maybe I could give it a shot lol, 10-15 years of research and dedication and surely something would breakthrough.

Anyhow, it is strange. I've lived here my whole life pretty much, except for the 5 years I lived in Dallas, but it seems very strange when compared to most other places. I've even had relatives from Colorado range say that our weather is nuts, now that is saying something. The other thing is, it will suck if goes from being this cold to a straight 3 months of 100+ degrees which is probably what will happen lol


Instead of genetically engineering crops, we should learn to live in compliance with nature, but that's not what this topic is about....

Saw this on reddit:

http://i.imgur.com/6Zjtnkt.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/4VSxtVO.jpg

Edmond just got hammered.

Instead of genetically engineering crops, we should learn to live in compliance with nature, but that's not what this topic is about....I agree and disagree. . . if that makes any sense lol

Well I always say...nature is about balance. Things average out over time. This planet has been around a lot longer than us and has done pretty well so far. :)

Hopefully we'll have a relatively cool summer to keep things balanced out. I don't think many will complain if average highs in July are in the 70s, but I also know it isn't logical. LOL

As far as the farmers. Sometimes old habits are hard to break. There are also plenty out there though that work the system and take the government bailout checks cut every year for crop damage.I hear what you're saying, I still think it would be better to find an easier way than being 100% reliant on the weather and taking the risk though. As I said with XYX2, I agree we should live in balance or compliance with nature to an extent. For humans and the technology we are capable of making, nature isn't the all mighty force to me. I do respect it, but it shouldn't dominate or dictate what kind of technologies and innovations we come up with. I do think we should take great care of this planet that made us who we are today, but that only goes so far with me. I'm for conservation and knowing not to mess with certain things, that I believe we are doing in certain government programs(more conspiracy theories), but I won't say much more on that note. I don't think genetic engineering is all bad or not complying with nature. All in my opinion though.

I was on the way home from my folks last night, 119th. and May area, and knew I wouldn't make it all the way home before the hail hit so I pulled in to the Chicken Express in Mustang. Food is so so but they have a nice awning.

Some Oklahoma towns luckily get bypassed most years from all this freaky, repetitive bad weather, such as Stillwater. Since 2000 it barely missed two ice storms and the one that didn't bypass it didn't succeed in shutting the town down for days. Hail never carpets the ground like snow. Only bad year for hail was 2009. (Stillwater doesn't luck out all the time.) After a stressful number of close ones over the years, no real destructive tornado since 1990. No flooding severe enough to get in the news. It pays to be a small target.

Look at tonight's model run here are the various headlines broken out with days.

Cold Air's Return
Front moves through Wednesday Afternoon/Evening. Highs that day will be near 80 falling to the 40s by midnight. Temps by day break will be Low 30s NW, Upper 30s W of I-35, and 40s to near 60 E of I-35 (warmer farther E you go). Temps on Thursday look like they will stay in the 30s and 40s. Friday will be much of the same. Saturday some warming will start but only into the 50s South to 40s North. This is all due to a closed off Low spinning over Missouri locking us into the pattern. Low starts to kick out on Sunday and temps should start recovering pretty quickly.

Snowfall Possibilities
This time of year it is always tricky to consider snowfall this far south. We have a good amount of cold air, but indications show surface temps should be above freezing and ground temps are pretty warm. So this is more worst case and I'm not going to bother with snow totals. Thursday May 2nd could see snow over NW and NC OK. Through Friday the snow could extend into Central and Eastern OK, but still impact areas of Northern OK. Any winter precip should start to move out on Saturday.

Rain, Storms, Severe Weather
Today slight chance of a storm over far SW OK. Very slight though.
Monday 29th has a lot of instability over OK, KS, and MO...but doesn't look like anything will be able to form.
Tuesday 30th instability will be highest over Western half of OK, but storm development seems low.
Wednesday will have a risk of severe weather with the storms along the front. This is pretty similar to the system a couple weeks back. Forecast sounding shows conditions favorable for all modes of severe weather, but the tornado threat gets ended quickly as the front moves in. Precip will continue in the area through Saturday, but lighter once we get into Friday.
Tue May 7th - Decent instability, but little to no storm growht.
Wed May 8th - Unstable North and Central, but no storms.
Friday 10th through Sunday 12th - Chance of storms.

SPC had posted on facebook earlier today that overall tornado count for the year is on the low end of the average for the last 8 years. So wanted to look at Oklahoma directly...

January
Average: 0.3
Actual: 2

February
Average: 0.8
Actual: 0

March
Average: 4
Actual: 2

April
Average: 11.7
Actual: 11 (so far, does not include cold air funnel that touched down in panhandle a couple days ago and brief tornado in Dewey County)

So overall we are pretty much right on an average year for tornadoes in the state. We've had 6 EF0s, 7 EF1s, and 2 EF2s so far. Look at the average for the rest of the year...

May: 21.4 - June: 7.9 - July: 1.8 - Aug: 1.4 - Sep: 2 - Oct: 2 - Nov: 1.5 - Dec: 0.4

May is almost always the busy month when it comes to tornado activity. We've gone only one year without any tornadoes in May and that was in 2005, which had one of the lowest overall tornado totals (27). Last year really wasn't that busy when you keep things in perspective. Our yearly average is 55 and last year we had 63, but 53 of those came in April with a decent sized outbreak. It was also the record year for the most tornadoes in April. Could probably make some assumptions that the long term drought had an impact in keeping things pretty tame relatively compares to previous years.

It's hard to really say where we will end up this year. We are stuck in a pattern that brings strong cold fronts through the state every week to 10 days. We haven't seen a real classic dryline setup like we normally do. April is always a transitional month though for us so we will have to see if May becomes a more classic period. So far looking at the models through the first week and a half of May, it seems we are still in this same pattern. However, we have seen a ton of moisture get dumped on us recently.

Soil moisture is increasing thanks to the recent rains, so that will give us a bit more moisture to play with for storms going into May and June. We've also greened up significantly compared to what we've seen in recent years, which also assists with moisture content in the area over the area. So if we can stop getting these cold fronts that scour moisture out all the way through the Western Gulf of Mexico, I would imagine we'll see a pretty average May into June. I also wouldn't be shocked if we see higher activity going from late May through much of June.

So overall we are having a very average year. It has been a little odd from time to time just because the mode of storms has been a bit different than usual. I normally think of April as fast moving (50+ mph) supercells to the northeast over Central and Eastern OK, versus the slower mass hail producers we've seen.

NWS Norman review of the severe weather on the 26th: The Severe Weather Event of April 26, 2013 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130426)

I'm not going to complain about late season below average temperatures as long as the average moisture continues(and hopefully shift more to the west). I know this weather pattern has chasers freaking about their season. Theirs always later in the season or next year for them. At least they can save gas. lol

I'm not going to complain about late season below average temperatures as long as the average moisture continues(and hopefully shift more to the west). I know this weather pattern has chasers freaking about their season. Theirs always later in the season or next year for them. At least they can save gas. lol

Yeah, I'm all for this weather lasting until...October. I would be perfectly happy if we don't hit 100 this year. :)

Yeah, I'm all for this weather lasting until...October. I would be perfectly happy if we don't hit 100 this year. :)

Not many, but some rare summers OKC doesn't make it to a 100.

Haven't been able to post this weekend. But we got caught in the hailstorm Friday night. The lady's truck is now a golfball. Speaking of, we were near Quail Springs area in N OKC when the storm came through and it briefly dumped golfballs. I saw the hail core turn extra dark just as it approached and it was all over.

Anyways the models nailed those double supercells sliding SE.


On to this week, venture pretty much covered it. Looks like some decent rain mid-week with another stretch of jacket-wearing.

Haven't been able to post this weekend. But we got caught in the hailstorm Friday night. The lady's truck is now a golfball.

Which gives an entirely new and frightening connotation to the phrase "golfball sized hail."

Haven't been able to post this weekend. But we got caught in the hailstorm Friday night. The lady's truck is now a golfball. Speaking of, we were near Quail Springs area in N OKC when the storm came through and it briefly dumped golfballs. I saw the hail core turn extra dark just as it approached and it was all over.

Anyways the models nailed those double supercells sliding SE.


On to this week, venture pretty much covered it. Looks like some decent rain mid-week with another stretch of jacket-wearing.

My car looks like a golfball too. Makes it drive straighter and longer though. :P

This is pretty cool:
Wind Map (http://hint.fm/wind/)

Current wind speed map.

Some Oklahoma towns luckily get bypassed most years from all this freaky, repetitive bad weather, such as Stillwater. Since 2000 it barely missed two ice storms and the one that didn't bypass it didn't succeed in shutting the town down for days. Hail never carpets the ground like snow. Only bad year for hail was 2009. (Stillwater doesn't luck out all the time.) After a stressful number of close ones over the years, no real destructive tornado since 1990. No flooding severe enough to get in the news. It pays to be a small target.

This seems true.

Many places seem to get hit over and over again for several years at a time while others miss out on the hail and tornadoes. In spite of the fact that the extremes will average out over a long period of time I would never live in Moore or Piedmont

This PM's European model wetter for Midwest next 10 days; GFS drier; Commodity Weather Group favors European; 2-4" cents on IA/WI

Huge discrepancy between models for 11-15 day period in the Plains and MIdwest

------

saw these tweets today, do these sound accurate?

Mike Morgan and Emily Sutton are pumping up a snow storm for this week. Nonetheless, we are looking at highs in the 30s and lows possibly in the upper 20s, unprecedented for May. Winter is still in full swing for Oklahoma.

Mike Morgan and Emily Sutton are pumping up a snow storm for this week. Nonetheless, we are looking at highs in the 30s and lows possibly in the upper 20s, unprecedented for May. Winter is still in full swing for Oklahoma.

What an odd couple they are.

Mike Morgan and Emily Sutton are pumping up a snow storm for this week. Nonetheless, we are looking at highs in the 30s and lows possibly in the upper 20s, unprecedented for May. Winter is still in full swing for Oklahoma.

Where are you seeing highs in the 30's and lows in the 20's?

Mike Morgan and Emily Sutton are pumping up a snow storm for this week. Nonetheless, we are looking at highs in the 30s and lows possibly in the upper 20s, unprecedented for May. Winter is still in full swing for Oklahoma.Okay, please no one hate on me for this, I've just always switched to News 9 for local news, but what channel is Mike Morgan on and what time? I really want to see this guy for myself and see all of hype he spits out.

This seems true.

Many places seem to get hit over and over again for several years at a time while others miss out on the hail and tornadoes. In spite of the fact that the extremes will average out over a long period of time I would never live in Moore or PiedmontThere has to be some sort correlation with that. Maybe these towns sit in depressed area or something like that??? I mean, the tornados that have came through OKC and if I recall right, three or four have taken an almost identical path to that, of the F5 from May 3.

Okay, please no one hate on me for this, I've just always switched to News 9 for local news, but what channel is Mike Morgan on and what time? I really want to see this guy for myself and see all of hype he spits out.

KFOR 4. He usually does the weather on the 10PM newscast or if there is severe weather coverage.

There has to be some sort correlation with that. Maybe these towns sit in depressed area or something like that??? I mean, the tornados that have came through OKC and if I recall right, three or four have taken an almost identical path to that, of the F5 from May 3.

Moore got hit by another tornado on May 8, 2003. Damage wasn't near as widespread as May 3, 1999 but it was still bad nonetheless. The path was almost identical to the May 3. 1999 path. Another tornado hit Moore in 2010 but fortunately it's path was mostly through rural country.

Here is a probability of seeing 1" or more of snow by Friday.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013043012f072_sm.gif

KFOR 4. He usually does the weather on the 10PM newscast or if there is severe weather coverage.Ok thanks, I'll check him out!! :)

As unlikely as it is, the fact that there is a non-negligible chance of 1" in snow for OKC in early May is simply astounding. The latest accumulating snowfall in OKC is April 12th (in 1957) with the latest snowfall period being April 30th in 1907/1949.

There has to be some sort correlation with that. Maybe these towns sit in depressed area or something like that??? I mean, the tornados that have came through OKC and if I recall right, three or four have taken an almost identical path to that, of the F5 from May 3.

I think it has more to do with the storms not having had enough time to wind down from their peak intensities when they arrive to Oklahoma City. It doesn't always happen, but it seems that storms have a tendency to become less severe once they cross I-35. Shawnee is east of I-35. Did it get big hail last week? And what about the adjacent counties to the east and southeast of Oklahoma City?

Oklahoma towns, like Stillwater, that are set in a valley can get hit by a tornado and even more than just once.

Good site to check out: Tornado History Project: Oklahoma (http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/Oklahoma/map)

You can select from the drop down on how many tornado paths to show. This goes all the way back to 1950. The map caps out at 2500, but we've have almost 3500 in that time period.

When you look at it, it is pretty clear anyone can and has been hit in this state. Southeast Oklahoma seems to be a bit less frequent. The I-44 corridor is definitely the main track for many of the state's tornadoes. I think population density also plays into this a lot too. The less frequent areas has lower populations, especially as you go further back in time. So not everyone is really going to get reported. Whereas you have one move towards Central Oklahoma and you'll have gazillion pairs of eyes on it thanks to the chaser convergence we get here.

Mike Morgan and Kevin Ogle are two good reasons to avoid Channel 4 like the plague. Even Linda Cavanaugh pushes this fear-based news to the extreme.

By the way, not saying NWS is the be-all-end-all but here is their forecast for the next few days. I'm not seeing anything resembling a snow storm.
Mike Morgasm is obviously putting himself out there for attention.


Local forecast by

7-DAY FORECAST

This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

^
I don't disagree with you on Mike Morgan (I've been watching more KOCO lately), bit to be fair I have not heard KFOR say anything about a snow storm. I do not know where bchris02 got that information. They did say there would be some light snow in the panhandle and NW Oklahoma, which is largely in line with most forecasts I've heard.

I do not know where bchris02 got that information. That I why I asked where he is seeing those temperatures, because even KFOR is not forecasting temps below freezing.

^
I don't disagree with you on Mike Morgan (I've been watching more KOCO lately), bit to be fair I have not heard KFOR say anything about a snow storm. I do not know where bchris02 got that information. They did say there would be some light snow in the panhandle and NW Oklahoma, which is largely in line with most forecasts I've heard.

How cold it gets depends largely on cloud cover on Thursday. If it remains cloudy all day keeping temperatures in the high 30s or low 40s, and then clears out in the evening, its definitely possible for the temperature to get down into the mid 20s by Friday morning. It's kind of a wait and see thing. North Central Oklahoma is supposed to get snow, heavy at times, but if we are hovering around 35 degrees or so Thursday, it won't take much for that snow to reach as far south as the metro area.