Does anybody know what people were talking about in Yukon with some foggy windows?, all I know is that it was very foggy in El Reno today..

Houses in Bixby with roofs and upper floors blown off. It came so close to my house.

Oh, not this morning? Thanks anyway.

Does anyone know if it's too early to give a timeline on severe weather in the OKC metro?


Since all went so well with storms tonight, maybe in hindsight, you can attempt to sniff the humor...lol

Flash flooding does very little towards long term drought.

After the first inch of rain when it comes down this fast, the other 5 inches run off and end up in storm water retention.It'd be good for the lakes, yes?

Does anybody know what people were talking about in Yukon with some foggy windows?, all I know is that it was very foggy in El Reno today..

It was the warm front blowing through. It was surreal. I drove through it on my way to Southwest Oklahoma this a.m. Suddenly, instantly, my windows were completely fogged up and I had to turn on the windshield wipers. It was bizarre.

Does anybody know what people were talking about in Yukon with some foggy windows?, all I know is that it was very foggy in El Reno today..

At least what it did at my house was after the heaviest rain passed, the windows accumulated dew. It did not last very long.

It was the warm front blowing through. It was surreal. I drove through it on my way to Southwest Oklahoma this a.m. Suddenly, instantly, my windows were completely fogged up and I had to turn on the windshield wipers. It was bizarre.

This is going to turn into a story, but....

This happened one other time to me besides today. Way back in 99 or 2000, some friends and I rendezvoused at my place (where it was cold) before heading down in a friends car to Bricktown from around 122nd and Penn. We were heading south on 235 and we were located basically right south of 23rd on the big bridge when all of a sudden the windshield and windows fogged over. When we parked in Bricktown to go up to 54, it was warm, so we all opted to leave our jackets in the car. When we got out of 54 at closing time, it was a weeeeeee cold outside and we all rushed back to the car to throw our coats on.

Pretty much the same thing that happened today. So, look forward to this same kinda thing happening in another 10-13 years, lol...

Gary England described tonight's severe weather episode as "mediocre".

Anybody notice how much he struggled with the technology last night? Started out kinda funny but I started to feel bad for him after a while...Sure he was comforted by his millions lol

Anybody notice how much he struggled with the technology last night? Started out kinda funny but I started to feel bad for him after a while...Sure he was comforted by his millions lol

That sure didn't stop him, and all the other TV weather hogs from taking over the airwaves last night. ... Jeeeeze! The really severe stuff wasn't even in their viewing area. The rest was just good old fashioned thunderstorms and lots of rain.

No Cox internet this morning. I live in Edmond and wondered if there was a outage map that I can view to see if the problem is with my area or just my house?

No Cox internet this morning. I live in Edmond and wondered if there was a outage map that I can view to see if the problem is with my area or just my house?

Must be your area, sa, because I have Cox internet as well and it was running happily this morning.

Anybody notice how much he struggled with the technology last night? Started out kinda funny but I started to feel bad for him after a while...Sure he was comforted by his millions lol

They were ALL struggling with it. That's one of those things that even if you rehearse with it, you don't know how its going to work "for real" until you use it "for real." First thing I'd do is move that control panel to the left side of the screen. It is incredibly awkward looking to see them turn their back to the camera completely to engage a tool. Surely that has to be configurable.

The broader irony to me is that 35 years ago, weathermen used simple chalk boards to draw fronts and high pressure systems, and last night, Gary et all were struggling with an electronic version of essentially the very same thing. The more things change, the more they stay the same, as it were :)

Once again many thanks to Venture and all the other weather geeks who kept up informed about what was happening. I agree with Sid about all the twitter traffic. I lost power for about 45 minutes so that wasn't bad. I did realize this morning if you have an OGE thermostat you need to clear the message after a power loss or else it won't run. Was a bit chilly in the house this morning.

Once again many thanks to Venture and all the other weather geeks who kept up informed about what was happening.
Agreed! Venture, you and Anonymous provide some context that helps us filter the hype from the ratings-mongering TV weather people and helpful explanation regarding the technical discussions the NWS provides. Your hard work and contributions here are very much appreciated.

I inadvertently stoked my wife's smoldering ire for Gary England by switching back and forth between KFOR and News 9 last night. Listening to Mr. England rattling off town names for no apparent reason ("There's Norman, there's Chickasha, there's Dibble") brought forth some funny, but NSFW comments about his nonchalant monotone delivery style and possible senility. Indeed, he did seem perplexed and intimidated by that huge monitor at times.

KFOR wasn't much better, but I'll save that for another thread.

Anyone have rain totals for the area?

It is still raining in extreme SE OK.

Almost 1.75 inches N OKC and to 2 inches S OKC.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Thanks !!!

Dominator4 http://localtvkfor.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/reed-dominator1.jpg?w=627

I still wouldn't take that into a tornado. Looks like a Gremlin with siding.

Sometimes it’s too easy to be cynical and to make snide remarks.
Although it his arrival yesterday was hyped up too much IMHO, the reports I heard from Timmor were surprisingly fairly well delivered for the first time on KFOR TV. His delivery will likely only get better over time.

Sorry, but the hype machine bordered on disgusting. It came across as way over the top and simply just a show for ratings. I'm not naive to think this is the first time the weather people do things for ratings, we all know its the primary reason, but last night's show took it to a whole new level.

Sorry, but the hype machine bordered on disgusting. It came across as way over the top and simply just a show for ratings. I'm not naive to think this is the first time the weather people do things for ratings, we all know its the primary reason, but last night's show took it to a whole new level.It's not over yet. From News9 Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151354396832212&set=a.264691522211.151571.259617042211&type=1


Due to last nights severe weather across our state, we will now air to our weather special "Inside the Storm" presented by FlatSafe Tornado Shelters this FRIDAY night at 7:00pm--be sure to tune in!

OUN is getting the rest of the prelim storm reports submitted now...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130417_rpts.gif

TimeTypeF_Scale/Speed/SizeLocationCountyStateLatLonComments2350TORUNK7 W LAWTONCOMANCHEOK34.6-98.55TORNADO REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAWTON. DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE GOODYEAR PLANT. (OUN)37TORUNK4 WNW STERLINGCOMANCHEOK34.77-98.24NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A TORNADO CROSSING HIGHWAY 17 BETWEEN STERLING AND ELGIN. (OUN)135TORUNK7 WNW GRANDFIELDTILLMANOK34.27-98.8MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A TORNADO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF PATH WAS FROM 7 MILES WNW OF GRANDFIELD TO 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRANDFIELD BETWEEN 835 PM AND 845 PM. DAMAGE WAS (OUN)610TORUNKSPAVINAWMAYESOK36.39-95.05EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN SPAVINAW...NO DETAILS AT THIS TIME. (TSA)634TORUNK6 ESE GROVEDELAWAREOK36.56-94.67SEVERAL HOMES DESTROYED AND POWER POLES SNAPPED. (TSA)2246WIND682 N FREDERICKTILLMANOK34.42-99.01RFD WIND (OUN)2325WIND60CYRILCADDOOK34.9-98.2(OUN)105WIND702 S ELGINCOMANCHEOK34.75-98.29(OUN)135WIND603 W GRANDFIELDTILLMANOK34.23-98.74(OUN)135WIND614 WNW RUSH SPRINGSGRADYOK34.8-98.02(OUN)135WIND682 SSE CHICKASHAGRADYOK35.01-97.94(OUN)137WIND794 SSW LOVELANDTILLMANOK34.25-98.8(OUN)137WIND607 S CHOCTAWOKLAHOMAOK35.38-97.27(OUN)145WIND733 W GRANDFIELDTILLMANOK34.23-98.74(OUN)150WIND643 W GRANDFIELDTILLMANOK34.23-98.74(OUN)344WINDUNK5 WNW TULSAOSAGEOK36.16-96.01FENCE DAMAGED BY WIND AND VERY LARGE TREE LIMB BROKEN. SOCIAL MEDIA (TSA)418WINDUNK1 W OKFUSKEEOKFUSKEEOK35.6-96.25SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE HAYDENVILLE AREA. (TSA)436WINDUNKBEGGSOKMULGEEOK35.74-96.07TREE LIMBS DOWN. (TSA)439WIND60LEXINGTONCLEVELANDOK35.02-97.34(OUN)505WINDUNKSTONEBLUFFWAGONEROK35.89-95.74SIDING BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN. SOCIAL MEDIA (TSA)505WINDUNK6 SW BROKEN ARROWTULSAOK35.99-95.87ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME...TREE DAMAGE AND A BARN DAMAGED. THIS DAMAGE WAS NEAR A RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTING A TORNADO. AN NWS TEAM WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW. (TSA)505WINDUNKBROKEN ARROWTULSAOK36.05-95.79TREE DAMAGE NEAR 131ST AND GARNETT. SOCIAL MEDIA (TSA)530WINDUNK1 SE INOLAROGERSOK36.14-95.5ROOF BLOWN OFF A METAL BARN. SOCIAL MEDIA. (TSA)905WINDUNK9 E ONAPAMCINTOSHOK35.41-95.39ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE. (TSA)2028HAIL100COWDENWA****AOK35.25-98.72(OUN)2038HAIL1257 WSW FREDERICKTILLMANOK34.35-99.13(OUN)2042HAIL1507 S TIPTONTILLMANOK34.4-99.14(OUN)2110HAIL100MANITOUTILLMANOK34.51-98.98(OUN)2212HAIL1255 E HOLLISHARMONOK34.69-99.83(OUN)2215HAIL175CACHECOMANCHEOK34.63-98.62(OUN)2226HAIL1759 SW LAWTONCOMANCHEOK34.51-98.53(OUN)2230HAIL1753 NW LAKE LAWTONKACOMANCHEOK34.76-98.54(OUN)2246HAIL175ELGINCOMANCHEOK34.78-98.29(OUN)2249HAIL1759 S ALTUSJACKSONOK34.51-99.33(OUN)2259HAIL100ELK CITYBECKHAMOK35.41-99.42(OUN)2324HAIL1252 W CYRILCADDOOK34.9-98.24(OUN)2329HAIL275CACHECOMANCHEOK34.63-98.62(OUN)2331HAIL2252 S CACHECOMANCHEOK34.6-98.62(OUN)2331HAIL1752 WNW CACHECOMANCHEOK34.64-98.65(OUN)2333HAIL2002 SSW SNYDERKIOWAOK34.63-98.97(OUN)2335HAIL175SNYDERKIOWAOK34.66-98.95(OUN)16HAIL1751 W ELGINCOMANCHEOK34.78-98.31(OUN)16HAIL1755 E CHICKASHAGRADYOK35.04-97.86(OUN)32HAIL1252 S ELGINCOMANCHEOK34.75-98.29(OUN)45HAIL1002 W CYRILCADDOOK34.9-98.24(OUN)100HAIL1004 NW NORMANCLEVELANDOK35.26-97.49(OUN)105HAIL1002 S ELGINCOMANCHEOK34.75-98.29(OUN)109HAIL1251 SE FLETCHERCOMANCHEOK34.81-98.23(OUN)118HAIL1004 NNE DAVIDSONTILLMANOK34.3-99.05(OUN)120HAIL100TINKER AIR FORCE BASEOKLAHOMAOK35.42-97.39(OUN)150HAIL2003 E GRANDFIELDTILLMANOK34.23-98.63(OUN)152HAIL1003 N RUSH SPRINGSGRADYOK34.82-97.96(OUN)153HAIL2503 N RUSH SPRINGSGRADYOK34.82-97.96(OUN)201HAIL1755 S NINNEKAHGRADYOK34.88-97.92(OUN)218HAIL1251 E COOKIETOWNCOTTONOK34.27-98.43(OUN)225HAIL1001 N ALEXGRADYOK34.93-97.78(OUN)226HAIL1006 N COOKIETOWNCOTTONOK34.36-98.45(OUN)229HAIL175WALTERSCOTTONOK34.36-98.31(OUN)309HAIL1006 N MEEKERLINCOLNOK35.59-96.89(OUN)330HAIL1005 SSW MARLOWSTEPHENSOK34.57-98(OUN)455HAIL10010 S TULSATULSAOK35.99-95.92151 ST AND LEWIS AREA IN TULSA (TSA)

Wa****a county...

Okay that storm down...on to the outlook.

First off, thanks to all those that submitted feedback on the chat room. I posted earlier, but it got buried fast, I'll be removing the #okwx feed and leaving the NWS feeds. This should cut back on the multiple reports, silly local media pics, and other non-essential posts. If anyone has anymore comments just shoot them to me in a private message.

Looking ahead via the 12Z GFS...



Slight chance for storms mainly SW OK Monday evening.
Slight chance Sunday April 28th Western OK.
Chance severe Monday April 29th NW through Central to SE OK
Chance severe Tuesday April 30th Western and Central OK
Slight chance severe Wednesday May 1st statewide
Slight chance severe Thursday May 2nd statewide
Chance severe Friday May 3rd statewide


A lot of these dates are WAAAYYYYYYYY out there, but well see how it plays out. Granted when we start talking about the first week of May, severe weather is pretty much a given.

Venture: Do any of these weather systems indicate significant cold fronts like we have had the last couple of weeks? I'd like to plant my garden one of these days...

Next Tuesday and Wednesday may get down into the 30s but no widespread freezing it looks like.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday may get down into the 30s but no widespread freezing it looks like.

Really? Mike Morgan a couple of nights ago was predicting lows in the upper 20s and a possible wintry mix next week.

bchris, every time you mention more freezing weather, I like you less and less lol. . . ;)

Really? Mike Morgan a couple of nights ago was predicting lows in the upper 20s and a possible wintry mix next week.

You listen to Mike Morgan?

For the record, it's not predicted anywhere else, including NWS.

You listen to Mike Morgan?

For the record, it's not predicted anywhere else, including NWS.

Some on here were quite skepticle when he predicated our ice storm a few days before it came true. All of our forecasters have hits and misses.

Tonight Mike Morgan said its supposed to be just above 32 next week but not quite go below freezing so if this forecast is correct we should end up with a cold rain.

That sure didn't stop him, and all the other TV weather hogs from taking over the airwaves last night. ... Jeeeeze! The really severe stuff wasn't even in their viewing area. The rest was just good old fashioned thunderstorms and lots of rain.

They do that all the time! Sometimes I think they just like the drama... lol

A bit busy this weekend, but here is the Day 2 Slight Risk for tomorrow. This is west of a line from Bartlesville to Tulsa to Shawnee and north of I-40.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING/POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN EARLY DAY WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR AREAS
SUCH AS KS/SOUTHERN NEB TO THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODIFIED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OTHERWISE RETURN NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY...BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MODEST /IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AND BE A GENERAL OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO
THE 50S F ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND IN VICINITY OF A HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR A
SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...WHICH MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST OK OR
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS/FAR EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE FOR TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...TO
INCREASE NEAR/PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2013

I have a really good website yall could check out it's - Home (http://www.svrhd.com/) we are based out of Noble, OK we chase every thing not just tornadoes we have a live stream the we put up every time we chase you can also check us out on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SVRHD1 give us a Like while your there too thanks Lawrence

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ029&warncounty=OKC027&firewxzone=OKZ029&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook)
AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND OVERALL
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
FREEZE WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

Hey Venture, do you know if these clouds will clear out tonight to be able to view the meteor shower?

Ehhh...looks like its partly cloudy around most areas right now, but may not last. Hope so!

Decent chance of thunderstorms tonight, better the further north you go.


Not a ton of moisture to work with, but still sufficient.

Also, right now we have reached amounts for the 9th wettest Spring ever in C OK. With much more to come, from what models say.

Do any of the models go out as far as the early summer (June) timeframe? Just wondering if there are any early indications of another dry, broiler summer or if this unusually cool/mild/damp trend may continue...

Here's one that goes out to June :) South Central U.S. Long Range Weather Forecast | Farmers' Almanac (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/south-central-us/)

Today looks pretty timid for a severe weather day. Best time frame for storms looks to be starting around 6-7PM far North and extending south to I-40 through just after midnight. Further south doesn't look like anything. The last cold front really scoured the Gulf pretty good. Dewpoints this morning are only in the mid 50s over West Texas and low 50s over East Texas. Some 60s when you get into far southern Texas, but that moisture probably won't make it here.

Best instability today is going to be over much of Northern OK and then down the I-35 corridor. So that is the best area for anything today. Just mainly hail and wind today. If a storm manages to pop south of there it would have a bit better moisture to play with, but don't really see anything getting too out of control today.

Moisture return is surprisingly better this afternoon. Nice clearing and building instability ahead of the disturbance.

This could warrant for a slightly elevated threat than before. Will have to watch what develops over NW OK area, could be some HP supercells trying to fire.

What will the direction of travel be for storms today?
Thanks

Generally due E with variances to ENE. But the front will be moving south, so storm will develop and fill in behind it overnight and the same motions will continue.

So individual movement E with the development moving S.

CU field still looks pretty poor out there, but at least it is there and more developing. CIN/Cap Strength still seems to be on the high side and the 18Z sounding out of KLMN. Moisture doesn't appear to be all that great in quality still. I outline the best areas for initiation this afternoon. The best chances are along the KS border near the triple point area, but could see an isolated one pop up along the dryline in western OK. Confidence is low the further south you get of seeing anything. Dewpoints right now are in the low to mid 50s over much of the area which is alright, but not substantial. It might be the case of no storms until the front moves through. At this point, I wouldn't expect anything widespread.


http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130422.png

This is the 18Z sounding for the area in the outlook above. Not really a great looking sounding for any type of severe weather. It does appear we have a decent amount of directional shear out there to assist with storm rotation to help with hail development. Anything outside of that doesn't look like anything to worry about.


http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KLMN/skewt/KLMN.skewt.20130422.18.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0548.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...S CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222150Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE BY
22-23Z FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS. THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY BY ABOUT 23Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION FROM
THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE DRYLINE IN THE NE TX
PANHANDLE...NEWD ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE INTERSECTION WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO THE W OF P28. THE DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT FEATURES SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK NEAR THE SRN
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...WHILE STORMS FARTHER N ON THE FRONT IN KS
WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD AIR MASS WITH TIME.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY ABOUT 23Z.

..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 04/22/2013

You always beat me to posting the MDs :( lol

You always beat me to posting the MDs :( lol

LOL sorry. You can get the next one. ;)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0136_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SRN KANSAS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM PRIMARILY ALONG SWD SURGING
FRONT OVER EXTREME SRN KS INTO NWRN OK. INITIAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL
CLUSTER OR LINE AS THEY CONTINUE SWD WITH A THREAT FOR BOTH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

Right now main activity is in Kansas. One cell right on the border is going up pretty rapidly and should be severe soon. This will be between Alva and Medicine Lodge right on the border. Back to the west just east of Coldwater, KS is a severe storm.

In the body of Oklahoma a couple of cells trying to go up over and just east of Woodward.

Movement on everything is generally going to be east at 30.

Here's the lazy man's quick and easy forecast for the next couple of days:

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/p480x480/734005_645616362130915_1826167896_n.jpg

:)

Severe storm near Hardtner is turning SE into Oklahoma now. Warning has just been issued as I'm posting this for N Alfalfa and NE Woods County until 715. Hail size has been increasing at a good clip with this storm. Max radar size estimate at 2.67".

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/kvnx_4222013.png

Hook echo moving in on the Alva area per ch 9
Alva = nice town.

Coming our way.
Its 38 degrees right now in Dodge City KS
Goodland KS reports Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy 29°F
A freeze this late is going to be devastating to the wheat crop and other agricultural crops in our state.

Both dominate storms had hook echoes for awhile tonight, but tornado threat is really low tonight (ahem Mike Morgan). LCL levels are all under 850 in the area of the storms and that just translates to high based storms. The hooks are mainly just indications of very strong rotations (which isn't a shock with that textbook directional shear on the sounding) and updrafts which are delivering the very large hail. As it cools off more at the surface they could lower allowing storms to get more surface based, but things have trended down a bit.

As they move towards Central OK they are going to run into a very stout cap. SO We'll probably have to wait for the front to pass first.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20130423.00.gif

The cell heading towards Clinton is beautiful.

First warning for the Metro area...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130422.png

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT


* AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGFISHER...WATONGA...GEARY...DOVER...HITCHCOCK.. .GREENFIELD...
LOYAL...SOUTHARD AND OMEGA.

Just saw an mPING report of 1.75" hail just east of Weatherford. This storm had its warning extended.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT


* AT 1023 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEATHERFORD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...