Since we don't really have a season to go with, I'm going to start putting in much of the severe weather items back into this post. January we saw a little snow but definitely not much to write home about. Going forward looks to be a pretty up and down pattern with more chances of severe weather and some winter weather mixed in. This thread will cover us through March since February is short and shouldn't generate that much traffic. Which means it'll be 50 pages long before March. ;)


Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Fire Weather Images


Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW60.grad.png?1343628443278O klahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://okfire.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/models/realtime/nfd/images/latest.bi.gif?1343629065Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*
Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)









State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)CASA Radar Deployment (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml) - SW Oklahomahttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NWRT/w2_NWRT_Reflectivity_00.50.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/casart_CASA_MergedReflectivityComposite.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)
State Satellite Images


Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)
Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)

Snowfall Images
24 Hour Snowfall Totalshttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=snowfall_24_h&min_x=-103.5&min_y=33.0&max_x=-94.0&max_y=38.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=2&width=600&height=450&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o6=1&o9=1&o13=1
6 Hour Snowfall Forecasts (http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/oklahoma-snowfall-forecast.htm)
6 Hr12 Hr18 Hr24 Hr30 Hr36 Hr42 Hr48 Hrhttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt1_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt2_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt3_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt4_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt5_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt6_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt7_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt8_oklahoma.png
References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
NWS Norman Page: NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page (http://www.mesonet.org/)
West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/)
Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather)
Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference (http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php) -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

Pretty sure we will have 5 tornado outbreaks before the month is over. Kidding of course. :Smiley122

Any predictions for Feb.?

Any predictions for Feb.?

Sun, clouds, rain, snow, hail, a tornado or two, wind...more wind...hey wind, oh and a worsening drought. Maybe some smoke and ash for good measure. Did I leave anything out? :)

Sun, clouds, rain, snow, hail, a tornado or two, wind...more wind...hey wind, oh and a worsening drought. Maybe some smoke and ash for good measure. Did I leave anything out? :)Yeah, you forgot dust storms, freak meteor shower, and perhaps a massive cme that will only hit Oklahoma for some reason. ;)

Yeah, you forgot dust storms, freak meteor shower, and perhaps a massive cme that will only hit Oklahoma for some reason. ;)

Karma coming back and biting us? ;)

Karma coming back and biting us? ;)Very possible haha

There is some hope for good rain next weekend. 3294

There is some hope for good rain next weekend.

Good as in "yay rain"...not so much good as in amounts. So far everything looks well under a half inch unless you get under a good storm. Still plenty of time so hopefully.

00Z GFS delays storms more into late Saturday into Sunday.

Ive noticed the ECMWF ensembles are coming more in line with the GFS ensembles. Usually it's flip flopped the other way around. Could the GFS finally decide to shine here?

Ive noticed the ECMWF ensembles are coming more in line with the GFS ensembles. Usually it's flip flopped the other way around. Could the GFS finally decide to shine here?

Stop talking nonsense. :-P

"I may not be good, but at least I'm cheap" says the GFS :)

I have a plan, it's risky, but it might work. 1. Everyone in OKC goes to lake Hefner 2. We get a really big ass water pump 3. Get every single car in OKC 4. We wash the living piss out of them using the entire water supply. I'm telling you, the rain gods will be soooooooooooooooo mad, it will rain for year and we'll have all the water we ever ask for and then some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have a plan, it's risky, but it might work. 1. Everyone in OKC goes to lake Hefner 2. We get a really big ass water pump 3. Get every single car in OKC 4. We wash the living piss out of them using the entire water supply. I'm telling you, the rain gods will be soooooooooooooooo mad, it will rain for year and we'll have all the water we ever ask for and then some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How about we just get a bunch of fans, point them straight up and try to create lift overhead? We just need to then get people from Houston to get fans and point them towards us to get the moisture up here...and people from Denver to help create convergence. Oh hell...let's just drop a nuke and hope for an artificial winter - without the glowing eyes. :)

How about we just get a bunch of fans, point them straight up and try to create lift overhead? We just need to then get people from Houston to get fans and point them towards us to get the moisture up here...and people from Denver to help create convergence. Oh hell...let's just drop a nuke and hope for an artificial winter - without the glowing eyes. :)Now you're talking!!!! lol.... We could also use haarp as well to alter the jet stream but in Mexico so the jet stream goes south. ;) We could also crack Yellowstone and "awake" the volcano, we would get a lot of ash and a global winter that wouldn't be radioactive!!!! haha

Sun, clouds, rain, snow, hail, a tornado or two, wind...more wind...hey wind, oh and a worsening drought. Maybe some smoke and ash for good measure. Did I leave anything out? :)

OK, so, same-ole, same-ole. Got it.

Still hope for some decent rain this weekend, but GFS really is not wanting to push it. We'll see what happens. Chances are the heavy rain will be with any storms that develop over the area.

A side note, the GFS has alluded to this loosely but he placement keep moving. Might see a good swath of 3-6" snowfall somewhere from the Red River valley up into the Central Plains mid next week.

Is anyone else seeing this fog outside? I've been in Oklahoma going on 9 years and I can't remember seeing anything like this.

I cannot see anything more than 80 feet from my window. This is the stuff of horror movies...creepy! Hope this burns off or rush hour is going to be nasty in the morning.

Is anyone else seeing this fog outside? I've been in Oklahoma going on 9 years and I can't remember seeing anything like this.

I cannot see anything more than 80 feet from my window. This is the stuff of horror movies...creepy! Hope this burns off or rush hour is going to be nasty in the morning.

(or) . . .
it is as if the lord allowed a cloud to rest for a few moments on the hallowed ground in the vicinity of our blessed viewing location . . . =)
(experiential note to quoted observer: i've seen it so foggy that we couldn't find our way back to the VW in which we drove and rode on the scenic overlook to boulder valley just to prove how lost we were in "the fog" we drove to the top of flagstaff mountain to actually see the cloud sitting on top of the town! . . . =[)

no kidding, no snark, no brag, just fact--regarding an amazing fog. =)

Is anyone else seeing this fog outside? I've been in Oklahoma going on 9 years and I can't remember seeing anything like this.

I cannot see anything more than 80 feet from my window. This is the stuff of horror movies...creepy! Hope this burns off or rush hour is going to be nasty in the morning.

It doesn't transfer quite well to camera but yeah, it's foggy out!

damn straight: thought about attemping a shot with the bare trees in the foreground against the background of the mysteriously lighted park but . . . who cares? and the FogMeister Jim Kramer is on TV . . . =)

Check these out...

From News9 tower cam
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8225/8449189841_62e6ee1545_b.jpg

Also, from the Sandridge Downtown cam
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8334/8450274736_07f833a963_b.jpg

Too bad no one could be inside Devon right now snapping pics of the blanket of darkness...

Is anyone else seeing this fog outside? I've been in Oklahoma going on 9 years and I can't remember seeing anything like this.

I cannot see anything more than 80 feet from my window. This is the stuff of horror movies...creepy! Hope this burns off or rush hour is going to be nasty in the morning.Yeah this has happened before man :). But, it was pretty bad around the time you posted it. I got up and put my dog outside to pee and started doing some homework and I went out for late night walk and I though WOW....

Too bad no one could be inside Devon right now snapping pics of the blanket of darkness...

Here is a picture of OU's campus last night as the fog set it. Beautiful but eerie. Credit to Colt Farney.

3304

edit. double post?

I love fog. It is so unique - and conditions have to be pretty prime to get thick fog like this.


Looks like Feb is going to get active here the next few weeks.

GFS is starting to latch onto a rain event this weekend, with a follow-through winter event Mon/Tues.

Latest runs keep the trend going.

As of right now, the storm looks to take a track eerily similar to the 2009 Christmas Eve snowstorm.

Another blizzard baby... That's 3 this year so far, lets keep it going jk ;)

I guess since the local stations haven't hinted at it..that it will happen lol

yep
Mike Morgan says possible snow for next Tuesday

Did he wear his bling tie? If so, then I'd believe him.

Well, when the news says it is going to happen, that is pretty much when you can bet that it is NOT going to happen. lol.... So just act like nothing will happen and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe something might happen. :p

Did he wear his bling tie? If so, then I'd believe him.

No bling tie, but he thinks that, even though we have a good chance of snow, it may be too warm to cause major problems.

I'll get to the Severe Weather for the weekend in my next post. Let's talk snow really quick.

All this based on GFS operational runs, take them with a grain of salt, blah blah blah...I've been over this for how many years now, you guys know it already. LOL

Tuesday Feb 12 - 6AM
Precip will move in to the SW 1/2 of OK during the early AM hours. Rain/Snow line looks like it'll be somewhere around I-40 in Western OK. Could see around an inch of snow in the Elk City-Arapaho-Taloga-Arnett area. Elsewhere look for around 0.10" of rain possibly mixed with some snow and sleet.

Tuesday - 12PM
Surface low will continue to intensify around NW Texas south of the Red River. Colder air will be spilling down and will be near/below freezing roughly west of I-35 and north of I-40. Moisture will be increasing, looks for new liquid accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5" west of I-35, and lighter amounts east. Heaviest will be in NW OK where it could be over a 0.5" of liquid but this will most likely be in the form of snow. So snow totals in this time frame looks like 1-2" North of Highway 9 and east of US 81 to near US 177. West of that area snow totals could start getting a bit higher from 3-5" of additional snow fall. Still looks like mainly rain south of Highway 9 and east of US 177.

Tuesday - 6PM
Storm system tracks south of OK through North Texas. Precip will cover the entire state at this point. Looks like all but far southern and SE OK will be below freezing. I-40 and south looks like 1-2" of new snow. North of I-40 3-5" of new snow. Keep in mind this is snow falling, but with a warm ground there will be significant melting until the snowfall can catch up.

Wednesday - 12AM
Storm system moves out mostly, some wrap around precip will remain mainly in Northern and NE OK. So maybe scattered flurries I-40 and south. Up to 1 more inch of snow in North central OK, maybe another 1-2" in NE OK. Precip ends pretty fast after this.

So we'll see what happens. Things change, but this is how it looks right now. So worst case scenario right now for the Metro area would be 4-7" north of I-40 and 2-4" south of I-40. Which in reality means we'll get a dusting and everything will still be closed. ;)

Okay that was winter, now here is Spring. LOL

Well currently we have a couple storms in South central OK moving ENE giving some folks a good downpour. Rest of us get the drizzle still. LOL

So severe weather risk this weekend. It looks like it'll be a late Saturday into first part of Sunday show. Instability really doesn't look that exciting going by NAM and GFS. However, this time of year it doesn't take much. I wouldn't expect anything major or record breaking by any stretch. A few storms should kick up Saturday afternoon. Main focus will be western OK and then march east overnight. Total rainfall amounts don't look exciting, but it will vary depending on individual storm tracks and any training we could get in specific areas. It'll almost be like this last rain where one area (OKC) go almost an inch of rain and others (Norman) struggled to get a quarter of an inch.

We'll see how things progress as we get closer. There is a lot of moisture up here now, finally, so that will always help things.

No bling tie, but he thinks that, even though we have a good chance of snow, it may be too warm to cause major problems.

Yeah, and big wet flakes too. That's fine with me!

Latest GFS run kills the winter event. This same thing has happened all season, it shows up, then dissapears. Looks like weekend rain still on track.

Will keep updating as the runs come in as they're fun to look at.


EDIT: New run in, shows winter event once again, less intense and more south.

Also showing an event late next week as well. Like I said the next few weeks look pretty promising in terms of moisture considering where we have been.

Latest GFS run kills the winter event. This same thing has happened all season, it shows up, then dissapears. Looks like weekend rain still on track.

Will keep updating as the runs come in as they're fun to look at.


EDIT: New run in, shows winter event once again, less intense and more south.

Also showing an event late next week as well. Like I said the next few weeks look pretty promising in terms of moisture considering where we have been.

Some friendly advice, take the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs and throw them in the trash almost every time. :) They almost always go off and do some random crap and the next main run fixes it.

Severe Weather for Saturday, as it has been looking on GFS for awhile, will be mainly in Texas. Slight risk includes a small around in South Central OK.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS WILL EJECT NEWD AND LIKELY
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEB BY 12Z/SUN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON
SAT IN ERN CO WITH THIS CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL NEB. A
N/S-ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD IN THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
OK TO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX AT 12Z/SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND SHOULD ROUGHLY INTERSECT THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND EXTEND SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH A STOUT
EML. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WITH THE ECMWF/GFS UNUSUALLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF MEAN. THIS DOES
BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT.
WITH SUCH A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AND APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS /ALBEIT WEAK IN TX/ NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY
SUN...PRIMARY DRIVER OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL TX SAT
NIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SWLYS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. SETUP APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

Well seeing all the runs and coming up with an average-esque forecast seems to be somewhat fair.


I am just really clinging onto anything and everything to get some type of winter weather here in OKC. Two winters in a row without anything to remember is very sad.

I’m getting a nice shower at my house.
With the storm systems lining up let’s hope this is the start of drought busting!

Well seeing all the runs and coming up with an average-esque forecast seems to be somewhat fair.


I am just really clinging onto anything and everything to get some type of winter weather here in OKC. Two winters in a row without anything to remember is very sad.
No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.

No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.I would be happy to have several events of 2 feet of wet snow with just enough wind to blow it off the power lines and trees.

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooo was this is for today or do we have more precip. coming later.

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooo was this is for today or do we have more precip. coming later.

That was it:

Intellicast - Current Radar in United States (http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx)

Hit 'Play Animation' above the radar.

No. It's not.

We need rain. No need for winter precip. It just causes headaches.

Winter precip, well snow, is going to be much more beneficial at drought busting that a few downpours of rain. If we can get a good snowfall that melts gradually, it'll do wonders with replenishing the ground water. Everything else right now will just run right off and not do much.

That was it:

Intellicast - Current Radar in United States (http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx)

Hit 'Play Animation' above the radar.:(

Well. As most know I focus mainly on the operational models and not the full ensemble of products. For this weekend I have to say I'm getting increasing pessimistic when it comes to any widespread beneficial rain. NAM is kicking out a general 0.1 to 0.4" of rain across the state with Northeast, SW, and SE OK getting the higher end of that scale. GFS is a bit different with NW OK under a tenth of an inch, SW 0.1 to 0.4", the SE 1/3rd of OK anywhere from 0.3 to 0.7" of rain, and the rest of us between a tenth and quarter inch of rain.

Severe weather chances look very low with the bulk of instability south of the Red River. Things can change if moisture return is greater than expected, but I'm starting to doubt any rainfall that will really make any impact to the drought.

^^^^^makes me so mad I'm gonna x this thread off!

That actually physically irritated me. >_< I BLAME YOU VENTURE!!! lol jk.... I'll blame Gary England instead ;) lol

Winter event is looking better and better. Looks like some decent snowfall over the bottom half of state. [right now]

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif

12Z pulled snow way back again. Almost nothing east of I-35 and capping out at 3-5" in SW OK. At this point I'm more interested in the track consistency than anything. We can worry about snow totals in a few days when we get closer.

12Z pulled snow way back again. Almost nothing east of I-35 and capping out at 3-5" in SW OK. At this point I'm more interested in the track consistency than anything. We can worry about snow totals in a few days when we get closer.

QPF amounts actually increased from 06z to 12z on the GFS (and pretty much along the same track). However, temperature profiles along and east of I-35 warmed about 3-5 degrees between the two runs.

QPF amounts actually increased from 06z to 12z on the GFS (and pretty much along the same track). However, temperature profiles along and east of I-35 warmed about 3-5 degrees between the two runs.

Right. My comments were purely on the snow fall amounts. If we look at Norman proper this is what GFS is spitting out.

Prior to 12Z Tue dry.
12Z to 18Z Tue - 0.3" of QPF. Appears to be mix of rain, graupel, and sleet based on upper air sounding.
18Z Tue to 00Z Wed - 0.4" of QPF. Wet snow, graupel, and rain.
00Z and beyond dry.

Surface temps appear to be 2-3 degrees above freezing, but below freezing just above the surface. During that morning period there will still be some warm air in a very thin layer around 1000' and then back below freezing until going above at the surface. If that can cool some and get rid of that warm pocket upstairs, the sleet risk goes away.

So yeah, it's pretty border line right now from getting 3-5" of heavy wet snow to a very sold rain/sleet/snow mix.

00Z GFS continues to dry out even more for next week's potential winter weather. It's also pretty low in QPF for the weekend as well. So who knows. It might just be low balling things right now.

Slight Risk today for Western and Southern Oklahoma.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN CANADA...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW DIGGING INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA...
APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF BROADER SCALE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGHING. PHASING OF THIS LATTER FEATURE WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY...AND VERY STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CYCLONIC
500 MB JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 100 KT WILL NOSE ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SAME TIME...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SERIES OF LESS
PROMINENT SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...IN MANY RESPECTS...IS TYPICAL OF
ONE THAT MIGHT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST
OR DEEP...AND A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE...IN THE WAKE RECENT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING. THE NAM/SREF SUGGEST THAT EVEN RATHER MODEST
MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY NOT REACH PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AND
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/STRONG FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY IN A BROKEN
LINE...ROUGHLY NEAR/EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER COUPLING
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER LIFT...ON THE
DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS...FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK
FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

THEREAFTER...EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND GROW
UPSCALE...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OFF TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ENHANCED BY FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING SLOW MOISTURE
RETURN...AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET AXES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.

NAM finally latching onto winter event. GFS coming back with heavier amounts today in terms of snow. However, it is pushing the decent banding into NW OK.

Severe weather risk today looks marginal as usual. This early widespread rain, expect over most of the Metro area (LOL), will push off to the east through the afternoon. Then we are looking at some storms popping up along the dryline/cold front later in SW OK (8-9PM) and move NE. The line should fill back out as it moves through Central OK overnight. Could see a few strong/severe storms mixed in with it all, so just stay aware.

Snow chances...

12Z NAM has total QPF over the OKC area of 0.1" to the north side and 0.4" on the south.
12Z GFS has total QPF ranging from 0.75 to 1.0" over much of Central OK. A higher band of 1 to 1.25" from Tulsa to Enid to Elk City.

Everything comes down to how the air temps are going to be playing upstairs. The upper air forecasts/precip type is all based on forecast soundings from Norman, so it could fluctuate depending on where you are.

NAM (Precip Starts ~ 6AM Tuesday)
Tues 6AM - Rain/Snow mix. Freezing through 700 feet and then up into the mid/upper 30s at the surface.
9AM - Mostly snow, maybe some rain/graupel mixed in. Freezing almost all the way except warmer at the surface.
12PM - Rain/Snow mix, probably a very wet snow. Surface temps remain well above freezing.
3PM - Rain/Snow mix, more of the same.
6PM - Rain mostly, maybe with some snow mixed in. Freezing level raising up a bit here, but precip should be very light by this time if not over.

NAM is mostly light in precip and holds of any snow accumulation. Main driver for that is the ground/surface temps being pretty warm. So its solution would be a fairly wet/slushy snowfall.

GFS (Precip starts before 6AM Tuesday)
Tues 6AM - Light rain over much of Oklahoma south of I-40. About 0.1 - 0.2".
12PM - Moderate precip kicks in from Elk City to Perry (0.5 - 0.75"), around 0.4 to 0.5" elsewhere. Norman looks like mostly rain still, maybe some snow mixing in.
6PM - Heavy precip mostly over North central and NE OK now (0.5 to 0.75") with some 0.3 to 0.5" areas in SW OK and through Central OK mainly along and east of I-35. This looks like mainly snow with some graupel or rain still mixing.
12AM Weds - Precip pushing off very quickly east, maybe some lingering drizzle or flurries.

NAM is just now getting this data to play with. GFS has been fairly consistent with something happening for several runs (and a few days) now. Except for a dip in last nights 00Z run, amounts have been pretty steady. So my thoughts?

Some place in OK has the potential to see a good dumping of snow. This is a highly complicated setup since temperatures are going to be right on the edge. It very well could go from a good rainfall event to a heavy snowfall event. I would not be shocked that a winter storm watch gets put up tomorrow to cover Tuesday at the potential. It very well could go completely rain or be too warm at the surface for any significant accumulation. The other part here is the NAM keeps precip amounts, if it were all snow, easily in Winter Wx Advisory (not Travelers Advisory you stupid local media...grrr) criteria and nothing near Winter Storm criteria.

A line of severe storms is approaching SW OK right now. Max hail report appears to be 1.75". The official slight risk for overnight is for South Central and Southeast Oklahoma, but obviously it won't be limited to this area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK AND
INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...

...SERN OK/TX...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND TX
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED AND STABLE...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT ASCENT INVOF FRONT WILL ERODE THE CAP...ALLOWING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING.

WITH A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW FIELD IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WITH A STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO EXISTS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN
2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO N CENTRAL/NERN TX.
OTHERWISE...MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL
PERSIST AS STORMS SHIFT EWD TOWARD WRN AR AND ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2013

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png