PennyQuilts
02-21-2013, 08:25 AM
I had an 8:00 appointment at 235 and Britton. Glad it was cancelled.
View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013 PennyQuilts 02-21-2013, 08:25 AM I had an 8:00 appointment at 235 and Britton. Glad it was cancelled. PennyQuilts 02-21-2013, 08:26 AM I think it is doing okay, now. Husband was boarding for his 6:30 flight just a few minutes ago. And two hours later, still deicing. :) bandnerd 02-21-2013, 08:34 AM Well, yes. But you have some chance of not ending up in a ditch. My experiences in a 2000 Mustang in similar conditions were akin to trying to steer a pissed off, wet cat back into a tub of water. No one has fun, and you're just going to get hurt. This seriously made my morning :D catch22 02-21-2013, 08:35 AM I think it is doing okay, now. Husband was boarding for his 6:30 flight just a few minutes ago. Airport was closed earlier due to lightning. Current taxi wait times are 1-2+ hours for deicing. Anonymous. 02-21-2013, 08:46 AM Well that was certainly an interesting storm. E KS into C MO are getting pounded by snow. Precip. mostly over, the wrap around is moving NNE instead of traditional E - so majority of OK is pretty much done. It is actually sunny in SW OK right now in the dry slot. Much of OK saw a lot of liquid from this. Great storm overall. Mississippi Blues 02-21-2013, 11:11 AM Snow day baby!! No fun for the people that have to get out in this, but it's a win for us school children. catch22 02-21-2013, 12:23 PM Airport was closed earlier due to lightning. Current taxi wait times are 1-2+ hours for deicing. Some flights almost went 3 hours after pushback before takeoff. NoOkie 02-21-2013, 12:46 PM Looked at tonight's temperature forecast, and given how much water is on the roads morning commute is going to be a demolition derby. kelroy55 02-21-2013, 12:46 PM 18 pages and we're not even through February. bandnerd 02-21-2013, 01:06 PM You have to appreciate this state. We've had snow, rain, lightning, thunder, and sleet all in 24 hours. A few days ago it was 70, and it will be in the 20s tonight. Nothing like cramming entire seasons in to the span of just a few days. venture 02-21-2013, 01:18 PM Some flights almost went 3 hours after pushback before takeoff. Eeesh. Nothing like riding the line to get fined. I really don't see any reason, especially here, to push while knowing there is a delay for deicing. Just a way to piss passengers off. venture 02-21-2013, 01:19 PM 18 pages and we're not even through February. It was bound to happen when I decided "oh its been quiet, I'll just bundle two months together on this one." LOL catch22 02-21-2013, 01:32 PM Eeesh. Nothing like riding the line to get fined. I really don't see any reason, especially here, to push while knowing there is a delay for deicing. Just a way to piss passengers off. Can't tie up gates all morning long especially when inbound flights start to come in. Praedura 02-21-2013, 01:52 PM You have to appreciate this state. We've had snow, rain, lightning, thunder, and sleet all in 24 hours. A few days ago it was 70, and it will be in the 20s tonight. Nothing like cramming entire seasons in to the span of just a few days. http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/14821_158891750925861_1758836092_n.jpg venture 02-21-2013, 02:15 PM Can't tie up gates all morning long especially when inbound flights start to come in. They shouldn't be coming in, in the first place. Why would you put people on an aircraft, push them out of the gate, just to sit on an aircraft for up to 3 hours before they even get to take off. It makes zero sense in the customer experience. Oh well, that's for the people above our pay grades to worry about and eat the fines. I just hate the image it creates on the ground. bandnerd 02-21-2013, 02:29 PM Venture -- what are we looking at tomorrow morning with re-freezing, in your expert opinion? catch22 02-21-2013, 02:38 PM I agree that is is poor customer service, but options are limited in these situations. We are not a large enough station to institute network ground stops. Neither are we able to accurately predict deicing times until we are actually deicing, as each weather event present different challenges and conditions for deicing. An example being, we usually would preclean surfaces before departure in an event like this, start knocking ice off where possible before boarding starts, however the airport shut down from 5am-615am due to lightning proximity, meaning everyone stays inside including deice. At 615am the storms passed and it was throttle to the wall to get back on time and no one ever caught up. Ice was tightly packed 2-3" inches deep on all surfaces...Just takes a lot longer to de-ice that, and then anti-ice it. Customers are angry either way. PennyQuilts 02-21-2013, 03:33 PM I agree that is is poor customer service, but options are limited in these situations. We are not a large enough station to institute network ground stops. Neither are we able to accurately predict deicing times until we are actually deicing, as each weather event present different challenges and conditions for deicing. An example being, we usually would preclean surfaces before departure in an event like this, start knocking ice off where possible before boarding starts, however the airport shut down from 5am-615am due to lightning proximity, meaning everyone stays inside including deice. At 615am the storms passed and it was throttle to the wall to get back on time and no one ever caught up. Ice was tightly packed 2-3" inches deep on all surfaces...Just takes a lot longer to de-ice that, and then anti-ice it. Customers are angry either way. If it makes you feel any better, my husband, after getting woken up at 1:45 and up all night, and after sliding through that storm, then sitting on the 6:30 Delta flight to Atlanta for three hours before finally taking off - all with a wrenched back and a 100 mile drive waiting for him before he could start his work day - and who is yet to get breakfast, or lunch - Isn't remotely angry. He knows the groundcrews are working their butts off and not deliberately trying to screw people over. Is it any wonder I love that man. venture 02-21-2013, 03:52 PM I agree that is is poor customer service, but options are limited in these situations. We are not a large enough station to institute network ground stops. Neither are we able to accurately predict deicing times until we are actually deicing, as each weather event present different challenges and conditions for deicing. An example being, we usually would preclean surfaces before departure in an event like this, start knocking ice off where possible before boarding starts, however the airport shut down from 5am-615am due to lightning proximity, meaning everyone stays inside including deice. At 615am the storms passed and it was throttle to the wall to get back on time and no one ever caught up. Ice was tightly packed 2-3" inches deep on all surfaces...Just takes a lot longer to de-ice that, and then anti-ice it. Customers are angry either way. Yeah, which I can understand situations here versus more well prepared stations. I guess looking at the extremes like the 13-hour delay on flight at YYZ or EWR recently was just insane. At that point you cancel the flight or get people off the aircraft. I have a lot of friends that are out there on the ramps every day in the fun stuff blowing green snot all over aircraft, so don't take offense to any of this. :) There really isn't much that can be done at the local stations though. It comes back to Ops deciding when to start holding flights back so a station can catch up. From what I could see this morning it looked like most stayed under 3 hours, otherwise it would have been an expensive morning ($27,500 fine per passenger). venture 02-21-2013, 03:52 PM Venture -- what are we looking at tomorrow morning with re-freezing, in your expert opinion? I'm guessing there isn't much if any product left on the roads, so any liquid will probably refreeze pretty easy tonight. bandnerd 02-21-2013, 04:07 PM I'm guessing there isn't much if any product left on the roads, so any liquid will probably refreeze pretty easy tonight. Just looking outside, my neighborhood streets look nearly dry already, so I figured main roads would be even better. I ventured out for lunch and all was fine except for a little grip problem while coming off a full stop, but that can happen when it's raining in a little car like mine lol. I get bored on snow days, I'd rather be working and get the good day off in April! Anonymous. 02-21-2013, 04:54 PM Moving on to the next. Looks like next chance at a weather event is into Monday/Tuesday - right now it looks starved for moisture, but with all the snow melt that will be taking place over the plains this weekend - it may be underplayed. As of now, it looks to be a [mostly] winter event for OK and much of KS. ou48A 02-21-2013, 05:50 PM David P. on KWTV CH 9 just indicated that we could have a very significant snow storm on Monday for OKC He indicated that some of the models were cranking out crazy snow amounts. Plutonic Panda 02-21-2013, 06:40 PM What is crazy in Oklahoma? 100"+ of snow? lol ;P windowphobe 02-21-2013, 06:44 PM ...significant weather advisory for eastern greer...northwestern kiowa...southwestern wa****a and southeastern beckham counties until 200 am cst... And a word filter knocks the **** out of a county name. Hilarious. OKCDrummer77 02-21-2013, 07:00 PM http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/14821_158891750925861_1758836092_n.jpg I've seen this on Facebook with 3 or 4 other states. I think almost everyone thinks their state has the weirdest weather. venture 02-21-2013, 07:08 PM I've seen this on Facebook with 3 or 4 other states. I think almost everyone thinks their state has the weirdest weather. Yup. No matter where you go people will also say the same thing about their hometown. "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes..." Get's old after awhile. LOL Plutonic Panda 02-21-2013, 07:37 PM While I agree with that notion, Oklahoma does have extreme weather no doubt. Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma have some crazy weather, more so than the majority of the country. I'm sure there are a few more states out there like Oklahoma, but we do have pretty extreme weather sometimes. PennyQuilts 02-21-2013, 07:50 PM David P. on KWTV CH 9 just indicated that we could have a very significant snow storm on Monday for OKC He indicated that some of the models were cranking out crazy snow amounts. Loving the notion of more moisture. ou48A 02-21-2013, 07:51 PM While I agree with that notion, Oklahoma does have extreme weather no doubt. Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma have some crazy weather, more so than the majority of the country. I'm sure there are a few more states out there like Oklahoma, but we do have pretty extreme weather sometimes. In general the further north you go in the plains states the worse it gets about being extreme with the high plains getting the brunt of some of the worst of the extremes. OKC weather is comparatively tranquil when compared to the panhandle areas on north. We don’t have the break up seasons that the northern areas have that are such a pain. In the mid 80’s I drove though Guymon. On the outskirts of town they had a bill board that said welcome to Guymon home of the worlds most lied about weather. A few days later on my trip back though Guymon the sign had been blown over and there was some scattered light damage around town. I always thought that seemed ironic. ou48A 02-21-2013, 07:55 PM Loving the notion of more moisture. I gather that this new storm is still in the highly uncertain stage of forecasting, but more wet weather is good news. Apparently there are several systems lining up in the pacific that will impact our weather to some extent? tillyato 02-21-2013, 07:58 PM Yup. No matter where you go people will also say the same thing about their hometown. "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes..." Get's old after awhile. LOL In fairness, the quote "If you don't like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a minute and it'll change" is from Will Rogers about Oklahoma weather. We can't help that other states thought the same thing about their weather too, lol. Anonymous. 02-21-2013, 08:06 PM Yup. No matter where you go people will also say the same thing about their hometown. "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes..." Get's old after awhile. LOL This. So much this. Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever". And to elaborate on why everyone, everywhere thinks their weather is so 'extreme' is because most weather events are not 'extreme' at all. They are normal. Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works. It approaches from the west and pulls warmer air and moisture from the south, then once the storm passes the back side has north winds bringing in cold, dry air. Anyone with basic knowledge can figure this out by looking @ a radar, when a storm is present it usually looks like a giant "comma-shaped" shield, the wind fields around it are blatant. Okay, onto what's coming. The models should have a better grasp on the upcoming week later tonight and tomorrow as this last storm is being kicked away. But right now it looks like Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday winter events. Jim Kyle 02-21-2013, 08:10 PM And a word filter knocks the **** out of a county name. Hilarious.It's been that way forever here. Don't talk about gourmet mushrooms, either... Easy180 02-21-2013, 08:14 PM This. So much this. Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever". And to elaborate on why everyone, everywhere thinks their weather is so 'extreme' is because most weather events are not 'extreme' at all. They are normal. Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works. It approaches from the west and pulls warmer air and moisture from the south, then once the storm passes the back side has north winds bringing in cold, dry air. Anyone with basic knowledge can figure this out by looking @ a radar, when a storm is present it usually looks like a giant "comma-shaped" shield, the wind fields around it are blatant. Okay, onto what's coming. The models should have a better grasp on the upcoming week later tonight and tomorrow as this last storm is being kicked away. But right now it looks like Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday winter events. Those days must still be iffy as most sites and apps show upper 40's to 50 on Monday and near 60 on Tues Mississippi Blues 02-21-2013, 08:23 PM Also everyone claims where they're from has "the worst humidity ever". Mississippi has some harsh humidity in the summertime, although it's not bad in the other 3 seasons unless you're close to the Mississippi River or you're down around the gulf, and even then it's bearable (for me anyway). venture 02-21-2013, 09:48 PM 00Z NAM has nothing for Monday. Storm system comes through Sunday with mostly light precip (liquid) east of I-35. New GFS is running now. ou48A 02-21-2013, 10:16 PM Everyone always says "wow it's crazy it was 60 degrees yesterday and now it's snowing! hahahaha hehehehehe we have such random weather!"... No, you don't - this is how a normal low level storm works. Extreme weather is a relative term. I once read in the 50 years ago today section of the Guymon paper that Guymon resident who had enjoyed 95 degree late winter temp’s awoke to 6 inches of snow and temps in the single digits with winds gusting to over 70 mph. The high plains are noted for having extreme weather because the weather is actually extreme over a very broad area compared to most other places. The news media hardly ever reports live from these places during their bad blizzards. The worst of their bad blizzards are to be feared.They are destructive and far more life threating than anything OKC ever sees in the way of snow storms. Anonymous. 02-21-2013, 10:33 PM 00Z NAM has nothing for Monday. Storm system comes through Sunday with mostly light precip (liquid) east of I-35. New GFS is running now. Looks pretty weak right now, but it is a compact storm. Struggles on moisture and is moving pretty fast. We will see how the models handle the snow melt the next couple days and see if the storm slows in, it could be a 'closed off low' type storm. venture 02-21-2013, 10:42 PM Looks pretty weak right now, but it is a compact storm. Struggles on moisture and is moving pretty fast. We will see how the models handle the snow melt the next couple days and see if the storm slows in, it could be a 'closed off low' type storm. Doesn't really get cranking until it is by us...which it is gone by Sunday evening. GFS has zero precip anywhere near us. sacolton 02-22-2013, 07:26 AM Well, they gotta make something up to keep viewers watching. The BIG STORY this morning with lots of drama is "BLACK ICE EVERYWHERE!!! STAY HOME!!! AHHHHHHHH!!!" ... my drive to work was dry. Anonymous. 02-22-2013, 08:25 AM Doesn't really get cranking until it is by us...which it is gone by Sunday evening. GFS has zero precip anywhere near us. GFS finally catching onto the system. I have found that the models really suck @ forecasting future storms when there is still a current storm over the area. GFS puts the storm further north and east. This morning's NAM actually brings the storm further south and a little slower. Will have to see where it trends the next 48 hours. As of right now, eastern KS and central MO get pounded again. ou48A 02-22-2013, 11:13 AM They said we got 1.4 inches of liquid equivalent in Norman… It’s been a long time since we have seen that much moisture. Anonymous. 02-22-2013, 11:22 AM Latest models runs are in, NAM continues to trend southward. GFS dramatically changed south on newest run. Right now I think this could be a closed-low system, which dissallows dry air from being pulled into the system, and creates a compact pocket of very heavy precipitation over a small area. It may open up over the next few runs. ou48A 02-22-2013, 11:26 AM Latest models runs are in, NAM continues to trend southward. GFS dramatically changed south on newest run. Right now I think this could be a closed-low system, which dissallows dry air from being pulled into the system, and creates a compact pocket of very heavy precipitation over a small area. It may open up over the next few runs. Thanks for the updates:o Is this looking like an all snow event? venture 02-22-2013, 11:40 AM Thanks for the updates:o Is this looking like an all snow event? Depends on the model. NAM = All snow, with above freezing surface temps. GFS = All rain as it is warm all the way through. So far amounts look low - less than a quarter inch liquid, just need to watch it to see if it can tap into more moisture. Anonymous. 02-22-2013, 11:47 AM Models indicate another battle of lower 30s over much of the area, but the models are also terrible at understanding cold pooling from snowpack. All of KS and NW OK are covered in 10+inches of snow right now and will struggle to break 30s. Also this snowpack melting off and keeping the area "damp" provides enhanced moisture. ou48A 02-22-2013, 12:31 PM Models indicate another battle of lower 30s over much of the area, but the models are also terrible at understanding cold pooling from snowpack. All of KS and NW OK are covered in 10+inches of snow right now and will struggle to break 30s. Also this snowpack melting off and keeping the area "damp" provides enhanced moisture. I was going to ask about the snow pack and its possible impact on this storm. KWTV 9 met Armstrong just talked about it as well. I like his weather deliveries. Even though you might be in a location that doesn’t have snow on the ground experience tells me that a north wind blowing off the snow pack will keep things colder than they otherwise would be….. This is where the skills of a good Met enter the picture and where I get lost on my understanding of what’s going on. venture 02-22-2013, 03:26 PM NAM continues the trend south with the snow late Sunday/Monday. Forecast temps ahead of this system are probably overdoing it a bit. We'll see how much snow melt we get in the next day, but looking at today it isn't going to be enough. If we can keep the low levels cool, it'll make this all the easier to forecast for a change. venture 02-22-2013, 03:27 PM Special Wx Statement from Norman... ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK... A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN. And the AFD... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 253 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HAS SINCE MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING US WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAX TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS...AND EXPECT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THESE POINTS IN MIND...HAVE GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW...DESPITE WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER CLOUDS...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM FALLING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE. THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL RESUME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...BRINGING MODEST MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A COMPACT BUT POTENT CUTOFF LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA...SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...OUR AREA IS IN FOR MULTIPLE FACETS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS WINTER WEATHER...WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN MODEST YET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS WIND FIELDS WILL BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PROMOTE FALLING HUMIDITIES AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A DEEPER...SLOWER...AND MORE SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXACT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIP REMAIN UNKNOWN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CERTAIN LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EVIDENT. A WEAK WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AND WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ou48A 02-22-2013, 04:11 PM http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...ther+Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 315 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK... A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN. ou48A 02-22-2013, 04:21 PM http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...ther+Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 315 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK... A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN. I need to make a serious commentary on the information above that hope registers with the right people. In areas that still have significant snow on the ground a hard crust will have developed on top of the snow. With the strong winds in the forecast this will cause any additional snow to blow across winter wheat fields and on top of short drought stricken grass. The snow will collect in extra deep drifts along roads and structures, including houses in exposed areas. From my personal experiences from living in NW Oklahoma and on the high plains a 6 inch wind driven snow blowing along on top of a hard crust can seem like a 30 inch snow event or more. This is when you don’t want to leave town in any type of vehicle. People have died in cars when this happens. This could fall into the category of being particularly dangerous for some folks living in flat remote areas who still have significant snow cover. It’s been my very strong opinion for many years that WX forecasters and the TV MET’s don’t take an event as I described as seriously as they should. venture 02-22-2013, 04:59 PM Apparently someone has me on ignore. LOL //rollseye Anyway... I need to make a serious commentary on the information above that hope registers with the right people. In areas that still have significant snow on the ground a hard crust will have developed on top of the snow. With the strong winds in the forecast this will cause any additional snow to blow across winter wheat fields and on top of short drought stricken grass. The snow will collect in extra deep drifts along roads and structures, including houses in exposed areas. From my personal experiences from living in NW Oklahoma and on the high plains a 6 inch wind driven snow blowing along on top of a hard crust can seem like a 30 inch snow event or more. This is when you don’t want to leave town in any type of vehicle. People have died in cars when this happens. This could fall into the category of being particularly dangerous for some folks living in flat remote areas who still have significant snow cover. It’s been my very strong opinion for many years that WX forecasters and the TV MET’s don’t take an event as I described as seriously as they should. Any existing snow cover can cause or enhance drifting of snow. Even snow glazed over I've seen many times contribute to drifting snow over roads that were clean for days before wind kicks in. We'll have to see how it works out up north. Temps might be above freezing tomorrow and during the first part of the storm so that would lead to more of a slush for new snow to blow over. We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up. Forecasting localized drifting from pre-existing snow isn't something that can really be forecast. General rule of thumb would be if we had a strong west wind and there is snow cover, to obviously watch any north-south roads. venture 02-22-2013, 05:09 PM 18Z GFS dry slots much of Central OK, but has wrap around snow through much of Western and Southern Oklahoma. To early to really read much into at all yet though, especially if it gets cut off. ou48A 02-22-2013, 05:20 PM Apparently someone has me on ignore. LOL //rollseye Anyway... Any existing snow cover can cause or enhance drifting of snow. Even snow glazed over I've seen many times contribute to drifting snow over roads that were clean for days before wind kicks in. We'll have to see how it works out up north. Temps might be above freezing tomorrow and during the first part of the storm so that would lead to more of a slush for new snow to blow over. We'll just have to wait and see how things shape up. Forecasting localized drifting from pre-existing snow isn't something that can really be forecast. General rule of thumb would be if we had a strong west wind and there is snow cover, to obviously watch any north-south roads. I am not sure who you are talking about but I don’t have you on ignore :D venture 02-22-2013, 05:25 PM I am not sure who you are talking about but I don’t have you on ignore :D LOL just checking. We posted that same weather statement 3 times total. :-P lol Dustin 02-22-2013, 11:19 PM Jon Slater is saying NW OK could get in excess of 1 foot of snow. He also said there is a possibility that the storm could move south and impact OKC. I like that we are getting moisture, but why does it have to be snow?!?! lol venture 02-22-2013, 11:24 PM Jon Slater is saying NW OK could get in excess of 1 foot of snow. He also said there is a possibility that the storm could move south and impact OKC. I like that we are getting moisture, but why does it have to be snow?!?! lol He's just relaying the NWS's thoughts at this point. To the second point...its winter, deal with it. :-P I really wish people understood how much better it is for us if we can get a good snow pack to help replenish the ground moisture. Heavy rain just runs off at this point. The more we can moisten up the near surface soil, the better it'll absorb the rain we get from storms this spring. NWS Statement ...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILLAFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS HEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN. Dustin 02-22-2013, 11:56 PM He's just relaying the NWS's thoughts at this point. To the second point...its winter, deal with it. :-P I really wish people understood how much better it is for us if we can get a good snow pack to help replenish the ground moisture. Heavy rain just runs off at this point. The more we can moisten up the near surface soil, the better it'll absorb the rain we get from storms this spring. NWS Statement I understand the benefits of a good snow pack... I just don't like anything frozen to be on the road. My mom is a nurse and she has to go to work no matter what. I just worry about her when it snows. ou48A 02-23-2013, 12:25 AM Gary England referred to this storm as being Life Threating. I was glad to hear him put it like that. If you are caught out in it and away from a significant heated shelter it can be life threating. Wherever this hits it will get very bad very quickly causes some folks to be stuck exactly where they are for a day or 2. In places where there is an existing snow pack roads could drift shut in just a matter of minutes with the high winds. You don’t want to be driving anywhere where there is an existing snow pack when this starts. Be where you need to be with provisions well in advance. There will likely soon be a big run on the grocery stores. |