WSWatch issued for nearly the entire state of KS and all of NE.

Long Range models keep the storms rolling in all the way through early March.

In fact, next week there is indication of a winter event followed by the coldest air we have seen in a long time in the first week of March.

Thanks,,,,, keep them coming….

Mike Morgan just showed 3 chances of moisture over the next week.
If we could average an inch a week out of these storms it would really help.

Washed my car this weekend. I'm doing my part!

Washed my car this weekend. I'm doing my part!

I did the same... It was a requirement for all the salt and snow debris, though.

You know...one day I want a forecast that all the models agree on...no complications...and it is either straight snow or rain. Alas...

Two different forecasts here since NAM and GFS hate each other and are in the middle of a nasty spat I guess. Remember precip types are all based on upper air soundings focused on Norman.

12Z NAM Discussion

Midnight - 3AM Weds: Precip moves into across the SW 1/2 of OK. Surface temps around 40 with upper air temps showing a chance of rain/snow mix (maybe even all snow that will - should - melt on contact). Precip will be < 0.1" total.

3AM - 6AM: Band of "heavier" precip will run from NW OK through east sides of Metro area to SE OK. generally 0.1 to 0.2" of precip...not a lot. Lighter amounts back to the west of that area, dry to the east. Upper continues to be borderline of either rain, a rain/snow mix, or wet snow. Surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. NAM showing accumulating snow restricted to extreme NW OK and less than 1" there.

6AM - 9AM: Much of the same in the precip coverage layout, though heavier now along the Red River valley (0.2 to 0.4" there) since around 0.1 to 0.2" in the NW to SE band. Looks like mostly snow NW and NC OK still. Surface temps still upper 30s around here, near 30 up north. Upper air over us still a bit tricky. Things go above freezing from 2500' down to 1500' and then right at freezing until about 700'. So could see some sleet mix in.

9AM - 12PM: Precip coverage increases and starts to fill in. Still some pockets extreme NE, NC, and SW that will see light precip or none during this time. Rest of the area a general 0.1 to 0.2"...which higher amounts SC and SE OK up to 0.3 to 0.4". NAM showing snowfall accumulating from NC through Eastern OK now along the initial band. Surface temps still struggle to get out of the mid 30s. For us, still a narrow layer of below freezing (after going above freezing) upstairs so sleet is still possible.

12PM - 3PM: Looks like 0.1" to 0.2" of precip roughly north of an Ada to Pauls Valley to Woodward line. Less than a 0.1" south of that. Dry far NE. Snow continues North central through parts of Eastern OK. By this time NAM is showing 1-3" around Stillwater and 3-6" from Perry to the border. No real change at the surface temp wise. Upper air profile for us still goes very warm and then below freezing for a bit, though it is very shallow now so should stay all rain. Should.

3PM - 6PM: Mostly light precip for much of the state now except far NC and NE OK...around 0.1 to 0.2" up there. Surface temps stuck in the 30s. Upper air showing still a chance for some sleet around here. Snow further north.

6PM - 9PM: Still some light stuff around. Copy the last 3 hours. :)

9PM - 12AM Thurs: Mostly light precip still state wide. All less than 0.1" except far west. Around here looks like light rain/sleet is the rule.

12AM - 3AM: Main push starts to come through. Light to moderate precip west of I-35, light to dry East. Amounts looks 0.1" to 0.3". Temps will be warm through just above the surface. So looks like mostly rain, but a risk at freezing rain as surface temps will be flirting with freezing.

3AM - 6AM: Line pushes east over I-35...generally 0.1 to 0.2", higher NC. Looks mostly rain, but can't rule out a mix. Mostly snow NW.

6AM - 9AM: Main precip shield starts to clear out, covering just right along I-35 and east now. Some minor wrap around far NW. All rain for us...now that it is ending. LOL

That is it for the NAM review. Total precip could get close to an inch. Any winter precip...who the heck knows. GFS up next...

Okay so the GooFuS. This model has been latched on to the colder solution with more winter precip for days now. So here is the look at this one.

12AM to 3AM Weds: Precip moves in to the SW OK. Up to 0.1" of precip far SW, light NW and SC. It is showing accumulating snow west of I-35 and south of I-40 from a dusting to 1" far SW.

3AM to 6AM: Precip moves up through much of Oklahoma. 0.1-0.2" around Central to SW and SC OK. Surface temps mid 30s. Upper air show freezing through 1500' and then above, so maybe wet snow/rain mix. It does show up to 1-2" at this point for much of the area south of I-40 and west of McAlester.

6AM to 9AM: Precip shield now covers much of the area from Altus to Perry to Tulsa. Generally 0.1" to 0.4" along the Red River. Naturally GFS likes snow and keeps things below freezing through 700' and then above freezing.

9AM to 12PM: Moderate precip back along and south of I-40, east of Altus. Around 0.1 to 0.4". Surface temps are going to be near freezing at this point, so this shows pretty much all Snow, maybe some sleet or gaupel.

12PM to 3PM: Main band falls apart, still around 0.1" from OKC along I-40 to the east. Looks like mostly sleet and snow, but not a lot.

3PM to 6PM: Light scattered precip. Nothing major. Looks like it'll be light sleet/freezing drizzle/drizzle.

6PM to 9PM: Light higher area of precip far east. Otherwise continues light freezing drizzle and sleet around.

9PM to 12AM Thur: Main front coming through now, moderate precip from NW OK back to the SW into the TX PH. Light elsewhere. Looks like freezing drizzle still there for us.

12AM to 3AM: Heavier Precip far SW (0.5 to 0.75") and light amounts NW up to 0.4". Still showing freezing drizzle/drizzle around here.

3AM to 6AM: GFS dry slots Central OK, but keeps moderate precip going from Clinton up to the NE into NC OK. All rain here if there is any around.

6AM to 12PM: Drying out fast, some light drizzle left behind, but not much.

So looking at these two the general theme is that there will likely be some mix precip around here and not just all rain that is current in the forecast. Though the models could be completely wrong, which I wouldn't doubt, it is still something to keep in mind. The main push of warm air doesn't happen until the main system starts to move in early Thursday, so this setup seems plausible.

Advisory wise, with the way both of these are acting I would think we could see some winter precip headlines for the Northern Counties. Not so much around here, unless the sleet/freezing rain seems more apparent. Ground temps will keep most things in check I would imagine.

This is a massive storm.

It is going to be a really crazy sight to see the snowfall literally go up to around a foot as soon as you crossinto KS over the OK/KS border.


Wish we could get in on the snow play, but I will take this cold rain as well.

This bodes well for a pro oSu crowd for Wednesday nights big game!

So no real practical chance all this winter nastiness might slide south and beat up on at least north central OK?

So no real practical chance all this winter nastiness might slide south and beat up on at least north central OK?

Norman is updating this forecast now and is drastically changing things. Officially they are going with the winter mix/snow for the Northern 2 tiers of counties til Weds Afternoon and then transitioning to all snow/sleet south to just north of a Seminole - Purcel - Lawton line.

Models are teasing at slipping N Central OK into the heavy snow amounts.

I think looking at temperature profiles, this is plausible - even into NE OK.


Another tough forecast for OK. Up in KS and NE they know it's going to be snow. OK mets always get the tricky jobs! :D


http://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gif

The little multimedia discussion put out by Norman here a few minutes ago mentions significant accumulations over North Central OK. So I wouldn't be shocked to see Winter Storm Watches put up for the northern 2 rows of counties. There is almost going to have to be some sort of blending on advisories seeing what is going on in KS and AR right now.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

Yes, but N AR and S MO are mainly in WSWatch for a potentiallly siginificant ice event.

OK mets always get the tricky jobs! :D


And that's why they get the big bucks, right? :)

Yes, but N AR and S MO are mainly in WSWatch for a potentiallly siginificant ice event.

That is true. :)

I may need to go see my friends in Kansas so I'll have some snow to play in this year.

Check out this probability forecast for significant icing:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hicez_ge.10_2013022000f072.gif

Winter Weather Advisory for north central and Winter Storm Warning for NW OK.


OKC is in the winter weather advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

OKZ007-008-011>020-024>026-200530-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0004.130220T1200Z-130221T1800Z/
GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...FAIRVIEW...
ENID...PERRY...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...C LINTON...
WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKO N...EL RENO...
MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER
327 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH TO 4
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET... AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME LOCATIONS
MAY CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

Ugh, I was planning on driving to Stillwater on Wednesday for that Robert Ballard lecture too...

Ugh, I was planning on driving to Stillwater on Wednesday for that Robert Ballard lecture too...

Screw that, drive to Stillwater and hang out in the elements with the hope of scoring tickets to the biggest game in years at oSu!

I know I don't like midday runs, but whatever. LOL

18Z runs are a bit colder still. NAM is a bit more reasonable with snowfall amounts I think and keeps things reasonable. It also brings the initial accumulating band more so over Central OK.

GFS is more aggressive now with snow fall amounts. Through Midnight Thursday, it is putting a wide area of 3-6" over much of OK with 1-2" NE and SW. Heavier amounts over 6 inches over NW OK in the Winter Storm Warning area. Looking at amounts increase over Northern OK through the first part of Thursday where areas could see a total (not in addition to) over 6-10".

Temps will warm through Thursday that will speed up melting, but precip will also be mostly done so we won't see melting from rainfall.

The first round of advisories look good. I think we'll eventually see Winter Storm Warnings stretch across Northern Oklahoma a bit more. Winter Weather Advisories may very well get extended further south depending on which model proves true.

So the quick local media run down...

Gary / KWTV - A bunch of everything.

Rusty / KOCO - Mostly rain until Wednesday night

Mike / KFOR - 4"+ snow for OKC

At least they are as varied as the models are. ;)

I wonder if there is any other significant weather events in the coming week?

The winter weather advisory has shifted further south and east now.

The winter weather advisory has shifted further south and east now.

Not any further south, still along I-40...just filled in some counties out east to the AR border.

Not any further south, still along I-40...just filled in some counties out east to the AR border.

Sorry, meant further south in comparison to Tulsa. But yes, you're correct.

So the quick local media run down...

Gary / KWTV - A bunch of everything.

Rusty / KOCO - Mostly rain until Wednesday night

Mike / KFOR - 4"+ snow for OKC

At least they are as varied as the models are. ;)

To be fair at least Mike said it would just stick to grass...Basically looking like a repeat of last week's storm here in the metro huh?

Mike is now predicting over 6" for OKC and close to a foot in the NW.

News 9 predicts 1-3" for OKC and 2-4" for Tulsa.

Mike is now predicting over 6" for OKC and close to a foot in the NW.

6.8 to be exact, but he wasn't wearing the bling tie once again, so I'll believe it when I see it. I think it'll be like this last storm... where it may snow that much but it'll be so warm that it will compact due to melting and be gone by Friday.

Models still trending towards colder, further south.

OKCisOK4me is right, this will be very much like last week where it snows a lot... But it melts and we have a window of no precip.


With the colder surface temperatures than last storm, there may be a significant icing event setting up for the second round of precip. in N to NE OK [as it looks now]. NE OK has been below freezing for several hours already and precip will stick a lot easier up there.


42F outside my place right now in OKC, temperature has stabilized here. Wet-bulb is sitting around 35F. Dewpoints are pretty low also. This will be very much like last week with timing and temperatures.

Have the temp highs (forecast) gone down from above freezing? If not, this should be pretty benign in short order.

Have the temp highs (forecast) gone down from above freezing? If not, this should be pretty benign in short order.

It'll come down to the rate of the precip falling. If we get heavy sleet mixed with snow, ground and surface temps will mean little - especially with heavy sleet. I'm not expecting anything major, but we'll see.

6.8 to be exact, but he wasn't wearing the bling tie once again, so I'll believe it when I see it.

He doesn't usually break out the bedazzled tie until the day of a weather event, no?

nm

Latest HRRR has rain mixing/changing to snow in Central OK around 9AM tomorrow morning.

Forecast total snow fall through 11AM...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022002/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

This is an interesting one. This is 1 hour snowfall rates. Notice it puts 1-2"/hr rates over parts of Central OK. Rates this high could allow for ground accumulations to occur and overcome ground melting.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022002/t5/1hsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

The unwatched channel, Fox 25, says 4" on the north side of the metro, 1/2" on the south side but then their computer model shows 5.3" around Edmond, so who knows how this thing is gonna go.


He doesn't usually break out the bedazzled tie until the day of a weather event, no?

I think he does it more so for severe weather but even Gary said, there could be "thunder-something" tomorrow night.

Moderate rain over the SW 2/3 of OK.

Evaporative cooling taking place now with temperature drops of about 5 degrees in the last couple hours.

Temps at 36-37 just SW of OKC metro. Rapid cooling taking place right now ~ 4am.

At this rate OKC will be changing to snow/sleet by 5:30am.

I have had an 8 degree temp drop in about an hour and a half. 34F now.

Ice storm warnings issued out for N AR. This storm is impressive on multiple levels.

~4:50 here in N OKC. Just checked outside because I cannot hear precip anymore. And it is now all snow.

Large wet flakes. 33-34F.

Looking at the trends and intensity of the precip. shield moving in NW TX leads me to believe we could see snowfall rates exceed melting rates as we progress through the morning. This could actually start piling up.

I wonder if the NWS is going to upgrade advisories soon. They have added several counties in the extreme N and NE to WSWarnings.

Big snowflakes falling in North Edmond

Wow, if snow is already falling, then I suspect we might actually get a nice winter event. Is that right?

Grass is already white in OKC. Gentle moderate snowfall.

Roads are still just wet as ground temperatures are in the lower 40s.


I am still suspecting snowfall rates to overpower melting rates as the heavier precip moves in. NW TX is blowing up with rain and it's being pushed north east over the cold air.

I can see the NWS upgrading OKC and even points southward to a WSWarning soon.

All of OKC is at freezing.

Large wet flakes and coming down pretty good at Penn Square area.

Well looky there...GFS was the right one so far. :)

Beautiful moderate wet snow this morning, roads still wet so no worries there. HRRR showing precip staying mostly snow until it gets lighter/ends later today (until the front starts to march out). Accumulations are going to be inflated due to it not handling ground melt...so elevated grassy surfaces will see most of it.

So far this thing has busted most people's forecast that didn't take the winter precip forecasts into account.

It's begun to lightly snow in the Tulsa metro.

Advisories were updates as expected...Winter Storm Warning is out now for the northern row of counties (with a couple just south of those included). Winter Wx Advisories continues down to I-40.

Norman temps are at freezing right now, so that needs to be taken into account on elevated surfaces. Seeing mostly slush on surface streets right now, but it is starting to stick to pavement and overcome melting.

It is interesting to note that NWS Norman's official forecast still calls for mostly rain right now with some snow mixing in. This was updated about 20 minutes ago. So not sure if their windows are snow covered right now or whats going on with them.

Roads are starting to become covered at Tinker AFB

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0175.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201309Z - 201715Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LOCALLY WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL OK VICINITY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OK...MELTING ALOFT OF
PERSISTENTLY FALLING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA HAS COOLED THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH TIME. THIS COOLING HAS NOW REACHED
THE SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES PER THE OK MESONET HAVING FALLEN
SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS
MELTING-INDUCED COOLING HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW IN MANY AREAS PER LATEST SURFACE OBS. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY HEAVY/STEADY...PERSISTENT MELTING-INDUCED COOLING
WILL MAINTAIN A THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED SNOWFALL.
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER NWRN
TX/SWRN OK WHICH WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS
MELTING/COOLING PROCESS TO CONTINUE DESPITE BACKGROUND WARM
ADVECTION -- WHICH WILL THUS SUPPORT SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. EVENTUALLY...AS PRECIPITATION SLACKENS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THE MELTING-INDUCED COOLING LESSENS...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES AND SNOWFALL SHOULD REVERT BACK TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN MANY
AREAS -- AT LEAST ON GRASSY SURFACES.

Finally they woke up or looked outside...

#OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) extends area of Winter Weather Advisory for Beckham, Caddo, Cleveland, Coal, Garvin, Grady, Hughes, McClain http://bit.ly/VvBRzT?OUN (http://t.co/SOIjeZPv)

Snowfall has picked up in Bixby. Moderate/heavy now with occasionally strong wind gusts. Already sticking to the roof above our back porch.

Latest AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013


.UPDATE...
12Z OUN SOUNDING CAME IN COOLER THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS IN THE
LOW LEVELS. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN COLUMN COOLING APPARENTLY OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE ADA... PAULS VALLEY... NORMAN AND SHAWNEE
AREAS THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THESE CHANGES... THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS IN THE LATEST DATA AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.

The other side of the storm...severe weather. Slight Risk for extreme SW and Southern OK today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NW/N
CENTRAL TX INTO EXTREME SW OK...

...TX/OK THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL LOW FROM SRN CA THIS MORNING TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
INVOF NE NM/SE CO IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL LOW...THOUGH A
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE GROUND WILL LIMIT DEEPENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW. OTHERWISE...A MODIFYING MARINE AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD NWD/NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...TO THE S OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND WEAK SECONDARY LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AT THE TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL/N CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT.

FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
ZONE OF ASCENT EXTENDING FROM NW TX TO CENTRAL OK AND E TX...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND AN EJECTING SPEED MAX
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR ACROSS S TX
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS ASCENT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME OVER THE S PLAINS AREA...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OVER
OK AND EWD INTO N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY WET BULB COOLING TODAY. HOWEVER...CAPE BASED
NEAR 850 MB COULD REACH THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE TONIGHT OVER NW
TX...ON THE EDGE OF THE RICHER RETURNING MOISTURE AND A PLUME OF
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL.

ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE CONVECTION WHERE THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND ERODING WITH TIME. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES.

HRRR shows mostly snow through 1PM before suggesting mix/change to rain. We'll see what happens as the falling winter precip will assist with cooling the air (as has been the case already). Here is the forecast snow totals through 1PM...keep in mind HRR doesn't handle melting all that well.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022011/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f08.png

Holy crap, more snow! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94D1a0cIlhQ)

Awful quality because I took this from behind my kitchen window, but here's what it looked like here about 15 minutes ago. A little bit of melting is already happening and as I type this, all precipitation has stopped.

Little battle going on in Norman right now. Seeing a back and forth from moderate snow to moderate rain. Still about an inch total on the ground right now. Perfect example of riding the edge like has been talked about with this system.

Loved waking up to a coating of snow here in Norman. We do keep swinging between snow and rain, but I have to say I was pretty surprised to wake up to this. Not a thing a meteorologist wants to say in the morning, ha. Some of the totals the HRRR is pointing out is troubling. As you said, seems completely unlikely on roads and whatnot, but that'd be quite the bust considering yesterday most forecasts for the metro were rain. Don't envy the NWS today.

Good representation when it comes to the differences in precip falling right now...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_hca1.png

HCA Key: HA = Hail, GR = Graupel, BD = Big Drops, HR = Heavy Rain, RA = Rain, WS = Wet Snow, DS = Dry Snow, IC = Ice Crystals, GC = Ground Clutter, BI = Biological