Sorry Anon...I respectfully disagree. You said yourself in post #85 that the models were "underestimating the cool/cold air." They didn't. Temps are 33+, and ground temps are in the 40s. That's why the NWS didn't cry wolf.

Several posts in this thread from last night made it sound like with clear skies, the temps were about to plummet, we were in for a major snowstorm with massive accumulations here in Central OK starting early AM, and basically the forecasters at the NWS were a bunch of idiots. (BTW...our temps here in Norman were still around 40 degrees at 7am this morning!)

How many times has the NWS and the TV meteorologists predicted a major snow storm in C. OK only to see if not happen? Truth be told, the NWS was the ones being more "cautious" by not over blowing the expected snowfall accumulations like has happened in the past. It's also why there was a wait to issue the Winter Storm Watch. Sure, this isn't a "dusting" either, but I'm referring to snowfall accumulations.

See the post from Aaron Tuttle on page 5. NWS went with "scenario 2", which at the end of the day is how it's all playing out.



Post #84 is mine - and yes the models did underestimate the cold air.

This is why all of the models and forecasts before now shows little to no accumulation in the metro. Now there is a few inches on the grass and more to come later. This is a clear underestimation of cold air in place than what models suggested. The thing about forecasting winter events around 32 degrees F is just that... very tedious, a couple degrees in one direction or another and you have a different outcome.

Having clear skies for the earlier part of the night helped significantly to bring us out of the mid 50s we had reached earlier in the day, not a chance this happens with cloud cover - we would be lucky to fall to 40. Does 7:30 am not count as early AM for snow mixing with rain in OKC? Please, the local media and NWS both went with the 2pm time frame for snow in the metro. They are smart to override their forecast graphics and reupload them as the same files, or else we would see the trail in this very thread. But most people on here just link the live image path and as the source updates it, the pages here reflect that update.

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.



Enjoy the wrap around later this afternoon...

See the post from Aaron Tuttle on page 5. NWS went with "scenario 2", which at the end of the day is how it's all playing out.

If you're even indirectly trying to link the Tuttle Siren with the folks on this thread, I have to infer you don't visit this thread very often.

If anything, most forecasters I heard went out of their way to say that this round was very difficult to predict because of temperatures. So for all the times the predictions might have misfired before, I sure can't see how this is one of them.

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.

Not saying that is the case here, but we do have local TV mets posting on these threads. Some aren't as obvious as others, so keep that mind when viewing comments.

Heavy snow in Guthrie with good accumulation. Haven't been on streets yet, but heard roads are slick.

If you're even indirectly trying to link the Tuttle Siren with the folks on this thread, I have to infer you don't visit this thread very often.

If anything, most forecasters I heard went out of their way to say that this round was very difficult to predict because of temperatures. So for all the times the predictions might have misfired before, I sure can't see how this is one of them.

I'm not trying to link any "Tuttle Siren" to anyone, nor am I a "fanboy" or whatever of anyone. I also did not intend on trying to stir up some sort of controversy, so please relax. I simply stated that in my opinion, the bashing of the NWS of "blowing this one" was wrong, that's all.

I think we can all agree that predicting snowfall accumulations, types of precip, etc. can be a tricky proposition in a "warm" air, "warm" ground, daytime winter weather event.

Tuttle Siren = fun at least for me.

I am not sure why you are defending the NWS and the local media so much when they all changed their forecasts drastically about 3 times in the last 15 hours... I am sure you would be on here trying to stir things up even further if it had rained all day in OKC.

Enjoy the wrap around later this afternoon...

Not sure why all the wrath directed towards me regarding my earlier statements. Again, I wasn't trying to "stir things up." I never accused the NWS or local Mets with blowing a forecast when they didn't. And I'll predict now that the "wrap around" won't amount to much, if anything. It rarely does, especially when you look at the faster movement of that round of precip. It's not like the temps are going to free fall in the next 6 hours or anything. If I'm wrong about that, I'll be the first to admit it.

WRWA = 1" of Snow as of 12:30PM

That's certainly true. Even without snow removal, it is possible to safely drive in this weather.

Yes it is possible to drive safely in this type of snow but I would much rather do it in a more rural area where even in Oklahoma you don’t encounter near as many scared drivers.
People who have lived in Alaska and the UP of Michigan have told me the worst blizzards they ever saw were on the high plans of far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. I have experienced driving in them.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png

One good band of heavier snow on the west sides of town. Various snowfall reports will pop up on this image. They aren't snow totals, just reports being sent into the NWS at that time.

Not to toot our own horns, but...

Re reading this thread [particuluarly pages 4 and 5] will show you that the people posting here had a more cautious and better grasp of the developing situation than what the NWS was leading people to prepare for.


EDIT: The wrap around in the TX pan handle is looking nice and healthy at the moment; will have to watch and see what goes on in SW OK within the next few hours.

I tend to come on here and read the threads on pending weather events as opposed to relying upon the TV media. You tell it straight, without all of the hyperbole or histrionics as in the media. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Heavy snow in Guthrie with good accumulation. Haven't been on streets yet, but heard roads are slick.

In Stillwater big fluffy snow has stopped and what little tried to accumulate on the grass has already melted.

There's still some very light snow coming down here, but a lot of what fell earlier has already started to melt.

Tuttle Siren = fun at least for me.

Is this a siren that blows in the city of Tuttle or are we referring to Aaron Tuttle's Facebook page, lol.

People who have lived in Alaska and the UP of Michigan have told me the worst blizzards they ever saw were on the high plans of far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. I have experienced driving in them.

Very good point! That's an important subtlety about typical Oklahoma winters that does differ from perhaps the traditional perception of, say, New England winters. Most folks that have been in both places relay to me that they're more than accustomed to big snowfalls, snow-packed roads, those kinds of things, but the ice we so often seem to have down here in OK is apparently (?) not at all as common. Think it tends to be nearly all snow or nothing up there, but with the varying temperature patterns here we might get everything from sleet to heavy snow, all packed together. Its even worse in the deep south, like Alabama, where snows are even less common than here - an ice storm in that part of the country can turn deadly really quickly....

The OK Mesonet shows the Norman site has received .57 Inches of liquid precipitation.
We have a very light snow falling in NW Norman.
With a little more on the way this will help

In Stillwater big fluffy snow has stopped and what little tried to accumulate on the grass has already melted.

Heavy snow stopped soon after my post, would estimate roughly 1" of accumulation right now with moderate snow fall here in Guthrie.
Hope I35 is decent as I have to drive to Midwest City in about an hour.

I tend to come on here and read the threads on pending weather events as opposed to relying upon the TV media. You tell it straight, without all of the hyperbole or histrionics as in the media. I'm sure I'm not the only one.


Thanks, I know a lot of people read these weather threads. I try not to let my excitement for weather to help determine my feelings on events, and when I do - I usually post a discretion in the same post stating I am clearly writing this in hopes of the outcome I am stating...such as my snow goggles 8)




Back to the storm, snowing moderately here in downtown - the wrap around is being undercut a bit by dry air as it moves ENE, but doesn't look like it will fall apart just yet.

Am I right in assuming roads will be extra slick tonight? I have an event and am trying to decide if I should go or not.

FDR is currently showing an area of moderate to heavy snowfall in Kiowa County moving fairly rapidly East. Another batch in W. Central OK. AMA is showing wrap-around precip in TX Panhandle decreasing in intensity and aerial coverage.

Very good point! That's an important subtlety about typical Oklahoma winters that does differ from perhaps the traditional perception of, say, New England winters. Most folks that have been in both places relay to me that they're more than accustomed to big snowfalls, snow-packed roads, those kinds of things, but the ice we so often seem to have down here in OK is apparently (?) not at all as common. Think it tends to be nearly all snow or nothing up there, but with the varying temperature patterns here we might get everything from sleet to heavy snow, all packed together. Its even worse in the deep south, like Alabama, where snows are even less common than here - an ice storm in that part of the country can turn deadly really quickly....

You make a good point too.

One thing that sometimes helps us in our part of the country is our thunder storm winds and ice storms.
Galloping power lines are not very common even in the OKC area but they can really test the power lines.

They all have a way of finding the weaker links of the power systems. As a result they are probably replaced more often and better maintained than in some locations that don’t see their electrical distribution systems stressed like ours.

What I hated most was how very dry blowing snow could get into electrical equipment in very high winds. It could short out equipment and sometimes cause an electrical fire.

Am I right in assuming roads will be extra slick tonight? I have an event and am trying to decide if I should go or not.

Damon Lane on KOCOs Live Wire said it won't fall below 32 degrees until after midnight tonight in and around OKC.

The low is anchoring down in SW OK, slowly trecking east and will eventually start jogging north east.

Nice redeveloping band SW of OKC and all of SW OK is seein redevelopment over the same areas. Great track for snowfall in OK today. We need to appreciate this, this is exactly what we have needed more of the last 2 winters. I. Love. Snow.

The snow is already all gone in my part of Norman...*pouts*

Snowing light to moderate with nice size in NW OKC at 4:00pm.

The OK Mesonet shows the Norman site has received .57 Inches of liquid precipitation.
We have a very light snow falling in NW Norman.
With a little more on the way this will help

Though it also has this notices posted about frozen precipitation will not be recorded till it thaws

Regardless, this is great moisture. Hope we can get more on friday.

Regardless, this is great moisture. Hope we can get more on friday.

Hopefully rain and not snow/ice. I'm driving out to Concho for some Doobie Brothers. I don't want to deal with adverse driving conditions!

Finally seeing the wrap around here in Norman. Earlier snow is already completely gone. We did go back over to light rain/drizzle for awhile. Everything should change over to Freezing Drizzle behind this for the night time, so hopefully there is some salt out on the elevated surfaces.

3335

3335

I'm totally sharing this on Facebook... I can't wait for my friends to ask me what the ghostly OSM stands for. I think I'll tell them it stands for Oklahoma's S&^$$y Meteorologists ;)

When I cleaned my car off after work, I eyeballed the accumulation on my roof at 1.5 to 2 inches (my office is on Britton between May and LHP). The drive home was uneventful enough, although I was surprised at the number of drivers who hadn't even attempted to brush snow off of their cars. People were zipping full speed down the Parkway with their back windows completely covered.

When I cleaned my car off after work, I eyeballed the accumulation on my roof at 1.5 to 2 inches (my office is on Britton between May and LHP). The drive home was uneventful enough, although I was surprised at the number of drivers who hadn't even attempted to brush snow off of their cars. People were zipping full speed down the Parkway with their back windows completely covered.

Tell me about it. Before I even get in the car, I have it cleaned off...especially all windows, mirrors, and lights. That's another thing. During the heavier snow today, so many without lights on. Wipers On = Lights On.

3335

+1

I expect to wake up tomorrow around 10:30am to brown grass. This Shlushmaggedon was pretty weak, lol.

I am just glad we got a storm to hit us. This hasn't happened in 2 winters. The Christmas storm was a bust. This one actually verified. Warm ground and 34 degrees is not friendly for lasting accumulation, everyone already knew that going in.

OKC probably had ~4 inches without melt.

Light to moderate snow resumed in Stillwater as of 7:15pm with ground trying to turn whiter than it did early this afternoon before it all melted . Temp at 33.

Perfect snow storm IMO since we got to enjoy the sight w/o any travel hassles

Perfect snow storm IMO since we got to enjoy the sight w/o any travel hasslesAbsolutely!

Moving on to next storm(s).

Active pattern remains in place for OK. A couple weak chances at light precip (flurries/drizzle/shower) tomorrow and again on Monday/Tuesday.


Next legitimate system looks to arrive around Thursday next week. At this time it looks like a rain event for OK and winter event for KS/NE/IA/MO.



Looking even longer-range - the pattern looks to stay in pace for the remainder of FEB and into MAR. Where did that drier than normal outlook come from again? :rolleyes:

A nice pic of the streetscape by the Colcord on Tuesday when the white fluffy stuff came through:

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/859844_469986576384300_248074568_o.jpg?dl=1 (http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=469986576384300&set=a.175968482452779.41077.133130840069877)

I'm hoping that the videographer from newsok that captured the Christmas day snow, and posted a video of it, did the same for Tuesday's snow.
It was actually a fuller, prettier snowfall -- would make for an excellent downtown video.

Sounds like the next strong WX system will be here about Wednesday & Thursday. Right now according CH 9 (Armstrong) Kansas and Nebraska could have blizzard conditions with rain further to the south.

If we can get a major system every week to ten days that leaves us with a half inch or so of participation for the next 4 to 6 weeks it would put a dent in the drought but also moisten up the ground and help make it easier to rain during the normally wetter months of April and May.

Perhaps that’s our best hope for drought busting weather?

Some nice snow pics from newsok staff:

Snowing on Lake Hefner
http://blog.newsok.com/photo/files/2013/02/Snow01.jpg

Delivering mail in Edmond
http://blog.newsok.com/photo/files/2013/02/snow03.jpg

Jogging around a pond near Britton & I-235
http://blog.newsok.com/photo/files/2013/02/snow04.jpg


More photos here:
Snow in the metro (http://blog.newsok.com/photo/2013/02/13/snow-in-the-metro)

Another snow pic...

A waiter at In The Raw Sushi in Bricktown mugs for the camera on the outdoor patio:

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/526576_340568736062613_1561295429_n.jpg?dl=1 (http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=340568736062613&set=a.213156555470499.46019.178223872297101)

I'm guessing there weren't too many customers that day.

Surely someplace had an outdoor area covered and with kerosene heaters. That would have been a cool way to watch the snow.

Outside of some horrendous flurries tonight, nothing really going on for a few days.

Next monster storm moves in Weds/Thurs next week. Looks like snow northern OK early, everyone else stays rain. Instability right now looks marginal. Could see a few strong storms, but most of the severe weather should be down in Texas. Heavy snow for Kansas and those North and East. So we'll just be looking at a cold rainfall here. This could be another good rain for the area to help some with drought concerns. Amounts could be around an inch along and south of I-44. NW of I-44 looks like 0.5 to 1".

The trick in all this moisture and combating the drought conditions is how fast it falls. Heavy and quick rainfall does us nearly no good. It will just run off and that's the end of it. We need a prolonged light to moderate rain to get things soaking in.

Next system lines up for Sunday the 24th. Around a quarter inch of rain for the first half of the day expected for Central OK. As the system moves east amounts will increase. Around a half inch for Western and Eastern (maybe heavier) OK. Central might get a dry slot but still pick up another quarter inch or more of QPF. The trick here is cold air will move in on the back side of the system, so right now everything along and west of I-44 looks like it'll be transitioning to snow. Early amounts so a general 3-6" snowfall West and North...maybe 6-9" north. Everything should start to move out by early Monday.

Next quick little system moves in around Wednesday the 27th - just some light cold rain right now.

Finally another storm system for Friday into Saturday the 2nd. Storm system won't really get cranking until it is past us, but could still get a good shot at some decent rain in a squall line type setup. However, this is way out there so don't even plan on this solution to stick around.

How about a forecast for those in the Canton Lake water basin? I'd appreciate that so we can pass it on to those that base their livelihoods off of a replenished lake for recreational activities and income off those activities provided. If you could I'd be happy to post it in the Lake Hefner thread ;)

How about a forecast for those in the Canton Lake water basin? I'd appreciate that so we can pass it on to those that base their livelihoods off of a replenished lake for recreational activities and income off those activities provided. If you could I'd be happy to post it in the Lake Hefner thread ;)

At least Canton Lake is outside the most intense part of the drought, but only barely.

Just read that's there a chance for a "light dusting" in the OKC area Friday night.

Anyone else here think that "light dusting" would be a great name for a band?
:wink:

Just read that's there a chance for a "light dusting" in the OKC area Friday night.

Anyone else here think that "light dusting" would be a great name for a band?
:wink:

*sniff* I don't get it.

;)

Just read that's there a chance for a "light dusting" in the OKC area Friday night.

Anyone else here think that "light dusting" would be a great name for a band?
:wink:

I think White Mustache would be better, if that's what you're hinting at...lol

Light to moderate snow moving through. Might bring a quick dusting. Enough to make it pretty outside. :-P

I have a 1/2" of snow on my grass... What? lol

I have a 1/2" of snow on my grass... What? lol

Yeah, had a fair bit of snow around 11pm last night in Edmond.
It was too warm (about 35 degrees) for anything to stick around for long, but it was quite a nice little flurry of flakes while it lasted.

A nice little video from a videographer at OCCC showing last Tuesday's snowfall around the campus:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4lDlQq_zno

Midweek storm looks interesting. GFS wants to mix some cooler air further south before the warm front moves through. So Wednesday looks like it could have a mix of rain/snow. NAM keeps the snow to mostly just far northern and NE OK. Any snow that does fall won't stick around long.

Rainfall amounts still look alright...0.5 to 1 inch of rain.

Next chance of precip is Monday which looks like Light Rain changing to Snow just before it ends. Nothing major.

Looks like a rain event for most of OK on this one.

It would take a pretty dramatic shift south to bring legitimate winter precip. down here, but it has happened before.


These wet systems coming in here each week is really great news.

GFS is still wanting to do a Snow to Rain transition on Weds. NAM is biting now too. So looks like we could see a couple inches of wet snow first before warming up to be all rain. Then NAM transitions western and Northern back to all snow pretty quickly. Oh these silly things. Though liquid is liquid. These may not break the drought, but they help.

These wet systems coming in here each week is really great news.


Do you see the near weekly wet systems continuing for long?
As I mentioned previously wet ground could help it rain more during our traditionally wettest months.

In the meantime I would be happy with large snows or gully washers too.
The ground is so dry that it would still absorb good amounts of moisture, but the run off would help recharge our lakes and ponds.
Just filling up the low spots would help replenish our ground water.

Do you see the near weekly wet systems continuing for long?
As I mentioned previously wet ground could help it rain more during our traditionally wettest months.

In the meantime I would be happy with large snows or gully washers too.
The ground is so dry that it would still absorb good amounts of moisture, but the run off would help recharge our lakes and ponds.
Just filling up the low spots would help replenish our ground water.



Long Range models keep the storms rolling in all the way through early March.

In fact, next week there is indication of a winter event followed by the coldest air we have seen in a long time in the first week of March.

In fact, next week there is indication of a winter event followed by the coldest air we have seen in a long time in the first week of March.

Those groundhogs and bears suck!