I hope it stays Spring after next week's cold snap. lol

You forgot the hope we have a VERY wet spring part hehe.

You forgot the hope we have a VERY wet spring part hehe.

Amen on that

SPC has gone ahead and done a Slight Risk for today over Western Oklahoma.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN TX
PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE
MEAN...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR.

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN DELINEATING CORRIDORS OF SLIGHT RISK
THREAT...EXCEPT INVOF ERN TX PANHANDLE.

MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION /BASE OF THE EML/ SAMPLED IN THU EVENING RAOBS. EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING...AN AXIS OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK/TX. DESPITE
NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE AND LIKELY ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE...A ZONE OF DEEP MIXING JUST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION ALONG IT.
STRENGTH OF THE CAP WITH ERN EXTENT IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE/SUSTAINABILITY OF STORM
COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY EXIST
INVOF THE DRYLINE/STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WINDS. MODEST EVENING LLJ RESPONSE IN THE PLAINS MAY SUSTAIN
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTERS TONIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2013

Slight Risk for Saturday has been expanded to cover much of the state except for NW OK.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK...ERN
KS...AND NRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE CNTRL STATES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVEL SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE OH VALLEY BY SUN
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...EXTENDING
FROM WI INTO WRN OK BY 00Z. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM ERN KS SWD INTO
TX...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

...OK...NRN TX...SERN KS...WRN AR...
A COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SEVERE STORM EVOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND-DRIVEN HAIL OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SERN KS
INTO NRN TX.

SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH WLY 850 MB FLOW. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...AS IT WILL BE ON THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE STEEPER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.

DURING THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERN KS
INTO WRN OK AND INTO WRN TX. MODELS DISAGREE WITH DEGREE OF
HEATING...BUT THE NAM SUGGESTS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND DEVELOPS STORMS WITH THE SFC TROUGH BY
00Z. IF THIS OCCURS...SUPERCELLS AND SSEWD PROPAGATING CELL CLUSTERS
WOULD BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS
MAY JUST BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN
HAIL. STORM FORMATION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THE 00-03 TIME FRAME.
CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT WRN AR AS WELL AS THE RED RIVER REGION.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE GIVEN
THE WEAK FORCING...AND IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET WARM
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY ERODE CIN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST
RELATIVE THREAT TO BE OVER SERN KS AND NERN OK LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2013

Thunderstorms developing just W of OKC and moving ESE currently. Hopefully we can get soaked under one.

Slight Risk today updated to cover pretty much all of SW OK now.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH HAS ADVECTED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST UNTIL WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TOWARD MID DAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.

IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
SHARPENING DRY LINE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS...AND A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
FEATURES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THEIR INTERSECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS...SEEM LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...VEERING OF WINDS
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODEST WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTER ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS...BEFORE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

Incoming storms do have some radar indicated hail with them (red areas).

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_hca1.png

So begins Spring...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
948 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT


* AT 947 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES WEST OF MUSTANG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...STELLA...
MUSTANG...LAKE THUNDERBIRD...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...TINKER AIR
FORCE BASE AND VALLEY BROOK.

The SVR warned cell moving into OKC has slight rotation, this will increase the hail sizes. Quarters were reported in Chickasha.

Took a glacing blow as the storm lost steam. Just some quick rain.

Hopefully we get some more action tonight.

The SVR warned cell moving into OKC has slight rotation, this will increase the hail sizes. Quarters were reported in Chickasha.

Looking at the mPING map, dimes mainly over SW OKC and NW Moore. Everything is moving east now. The cells that moved over Norman have ticked up a bit, but I don't it'll make much of an impact on the lake. Most of the ground here is already dry.

A friend texted me and said she was getting hail in S OKC

Slight Risk area was expanded at 11AM and forgot to repost. Runs roughly west of a line from Woodward to Edmond to Ada to Denton TX.

...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT...
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP FAIRLY STOUT EML CAP LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ABOVE
THE CAP INTO TNGT...BOTH IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER OK AND NW
TX...AND ATOP DEVELOPING SFC WARM/STNRY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
OZARKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BUT
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WEATHER.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SVR STORMS...MAINLY WITH HAIL BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX AND ADJACENT WRN/SRN OK. IN THIS
REGION...FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF NM UPR IMPULSE WITH MAX SFC
HEATING MAY YIELD A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION AND
ASCENT TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE RETURN.

WHILE WLY DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MODEST
/30-35 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND PRESENCE
OF DEEP EML/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD NUMEROUS STORMS
WITH SVR HAIL AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF UPR IMPULSE AND EXPECTED AMALGAMATION OF STORM-GENERATED
COLD POOLS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING
STORM CLUSTERS OVER NW TX AND OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO LATER TNGT...BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

New Day 2 Outlook is out and follows along with my thoughts last night of a high end slight risk event. 30% hatched area now in place for much of South central Oklahoma in the area along and south of I-40 and between McAlester on the East to Altus on the West sides.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SFC ON SATURDAY...A
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO
WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO ERN KS AND NW MO BY AFTERNOON.
THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OK SWWD INTO WEST TX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
NEAR THE SFC LOW IN THE MID-MO VALLEY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TAKING PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A CAPPING
INVERSION WEAKENS. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF SRN OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN SE KS TO THE LOWER 60S F
AROUND WICHITA FALLS TX. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG IN SE KS AND NE OK WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG
POSSIBLE SWWD INTO SW OK AND NORTH TX. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NE OK TO AROUND 40
KT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BELOW 850 MB
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IF THE FAVORED MODE BECOMES LINEAR
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THEN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS THE OZARKS EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL TX BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0331.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX
AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292022Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 2030Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 22Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING INTO W TX WILL OVERSPREAD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EAST OF A SHARPENING SFC DRYLINE THROUGH LATE AFTN. BY
22Z...THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE S/SWWD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD NEAR THE CAPROCK TO THE
SW OF CDS. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
REDUCE CIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR WIDELY SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFT 2030Z.
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 DEG C/KM/ AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE ESEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TIME INTO EARLY EVENING WITH PRIMARILY A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/29/2013

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0064_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 64
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRING TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER
PARTS OF THE TX S PLNS...THE TX LOW ROLLING PLNS...AND NW TX AS
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD. SOME STORMS
MAY ARISE WITHIN EXISTING ACCAS/WAA FIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM NM
SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS ARISE ALONG DIFFUSE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH
SEGMENTS NOW EDGING E TOWARD THE LBB AREA. FARTHER NE...OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NW OK.
WHILE WNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 35
KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW. AND...GIVEN EXPECTED CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION...CONSOLIDATION OF STORM COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION
INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/HAIL INTO
TNGT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.

New Severe Storm for the West Metro area.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 645 PM CDT


* AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR CONCHO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCHO...PIEDMONT...OKARCHE AND RICHLAND.


Also Southwest OK...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
EASTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...


* UNTIL 645 PM CDT


* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR OKLAUNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELECTRA...DAVIDSON...HOLLISTER...HARROLD...GRAYBAC K...OKLAUNION
AND HAYNESVILLE.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png

Also Watch extended to cover Central and Northern Metro.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


OKC081-083-109-119-300400-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0064.000000T0000Z-130330T0400Z/


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 64 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES


IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


LINCOLN LOGAN OKLAHOMA
PAYNE


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...GUTHRIE...
OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER.

Significant storm moving through the metro with up to baseball hail possible.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 PM CDT


* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL RENO...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS STORM NORTHEAST OF EL RENO.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...

Storm split off to the North and is now severe as well...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 PM CDT


* AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KINGFISHER TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASHION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Confirmed hail up to 2.5" with the storm moving into Yukon and Western OKC.

Looks like it is dying off before it gets to the metro...Thankfully

Looks like it is dying off before it gets to the metro...Thankfully

It's been in the Metro for awhile. Some day I'm giving geography lessons. Sigh.

Anyway. Northern storm split again, with two severe storms moving NE.

It's been in the Metro for awhile. Some day I'm giving geography lessons. Sigh.

Anyway. Northern storm split again, with two severe storms moving NE.

I should have said the only parts of the metro I give a damn about lol

Thunderstorm development over Stillwater has finally led to light to moderate rain falling, but nothing severe, so far. As another storm is active in Logan County, where there is a severe storm warning until 8:15pm, it will be interesting to see if a severe storm warming will be issued for Payne County.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

And so to little surprise a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Payne County until 9pm.

.

Another watch extension.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
811 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


OKC047-071-103-TXC077-300400-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0064.000000T0000Z-130330T0400Z/


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 64 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES


IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA


GARFIELD KAY NOBLE


IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY


IN NORTHERN TEXAS


CLAY


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ENID...HENRIETTA...
PERRY AND PONCA CITY.

New warning for far NE OK county.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 945 PM CDT


* AT 856 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF ARCADIA...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Very strong winds with lots of hail and down pouring rain at 111th and Memorial in Tulsa at about 9:30. Power went out for about ten minutes. There was about 6-8" of water in the right lanes of Memorial with at least one car stalled. The downpours ultimately lasted about an hour.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0335.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL TX...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300224Z - 300400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NW
TX NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NEW WW ISSUANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS THE STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF WW 64.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NW TX NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS
SHOWN A RECENT UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. AN INCREASING
LOWLEVEL JET /30-35 KTS AT 1 KM IN RECENT FWD VAD DATA/ WILL LIKELY
HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT WITH
INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE AND ACCELERATING FORWARD SPEED...AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING CAP STRENGTH...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MAINTENANCE OF NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WIND.

MEANWHILE...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IN CLAY COUNTY TX CONTINUES TO BE
A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. IF THIS STORM IS ABLE TO PERSIST...IT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY FASTER-MOVING CLUSTER TO THE WEST. WW 64
HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTY OK TO COVER
THE SHORT-TERM RISK FROM THIS STORM.

IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES AND CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-04Z.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 03/30/2013

Very strong winds with lots of hail and down pouring rain at 111th and Memorial in Tulsa at about 9:30. Power went out for about ten minutes. There was about 6-8" of water in the right lanes of Memorial with at least one car stalled. The downpours ultimately lasted about an hour.

Funny...Im at 71st and Yale and it rained her maybe for 20 minutes... More of just a light show ;-)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0065_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 65
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED/ACCELERATING MCS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN OK
AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CINH WILL NOCTURNALLY
INCREASE...SUSTENANCE OF THE MCS WILL BE AIDED BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET /30 KT PER FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP/ AND MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE. BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.

Funny...Im at 71st and Yale and it rained her maybe for 20 minutes... More of just a light show ;-)

Wow. Bixby has gotten three inches of rain. I'm hearing from friends that 131st near Mingo is nearly impassable with many stalled cars. It took me twenty minutes to drive from 111th and Memorial to 141st and Sheridan at 9:45.

Is the metro getting anything later or are we left out again?

Wow. Bixby has gotten three inches of rain. I'm hearing from friends that 131st near Mingo is nearly impassable with many stalled cars. It took me twenty minutes to drive from 111th and Memorial to 141st and Sheridan at 9:45.

Im at my Grandma's for the weekend and she lives on the 'big hill'... No flooding up here ;-)

These cells moving into OKC right now are nice and slow.

It has been pouring here for a good while in N OKC. It started off pure hail, probably dimes.

These are just radar estimates, but looks like some got a lot of rain while many others didn't get much at all...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_str.png

Slight Risk today for near the entire state but far NW. Storm chances today are such that instability will be high, but so will convective inhibition as well. So might not see much of anything until later this evening/tonight. However, if anything can get going it'll have a good shot at going severe.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES CONVERGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS BECOME
SUPPRESSED...EXTENDING IN A NORTHWESTERLY BELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE THE
MORE PROMINENT NORTHERN BRANCH CURVES IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TROUGHING WITHIN THIS LATTER STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION...WHICH MAY NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
TURN FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...A MORE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
WIND SHIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AND LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...BENEATH RESIDUAL STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...APPEARS TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY TODAY...WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING EAST OF THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEW POINTS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG...ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE IMPACTING
MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY PROBABLY WILL INHIBIT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WITH CAPPING RELATIVELY WEAK TO
THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...STRONGER STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. THE
EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND
LARGELY ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND STABILIZATION...WHICH REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 03/30/2013

New Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH SUN AS E
PACIFIC REX BLOCK EDGES SLOWLY EWD AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE N
CNTRL STATES IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE INTO
THE UPR MS VLY. IN THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH...WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW
SEVERAL IMPULSES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS POISED TO CONTINUE ESE
ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE STRONGER DOWNSTREAM
DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YESTERDAY DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE
LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES.

IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S UPR TROUGH...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN
LEFT SEASONABLY MOIST OVER PARTS OF KS AND WRN MO S/SW INTO MUCH OF
OK AND TX. THIS MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SFC
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES/FRONTAL
SEGMENTS...AND MODEST MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT BENEATH THE SRN STREAM
JET LIKELY WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
HAND ANALYSIS OF LATEST SFC DATA REVEALS NUMEROUS WIND SHIFT
LINES...FRONTAL SEGMENTS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLNS...ALL S AND E OF MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT NOW OVER MN
AND NRN NEB. OF THE MANY MESOSCALE SFC FEATURES PRESENT...THE ONES
THAT MAY HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE /1/ NNE-SSW FRONT/TROUGH ATTM EXTENDING FROM ERN
NEB TO THE TX PANHANDLE.../2/ QSTNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
ERN/SRN OK INTO NE TX...AND /3/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE ACROSS E
CNTRL OK. GIVEN EXISTING WNWLY DEEP FLOW OVER REGION...AND EXPECTED
AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH...EXPECT THAT ALL OF THE SFC
FEATURES WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY SEWD WITH TIME...SERVING AS AXES OF
LOW-LVL ASCENT AND POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEP EML ACROSS SLGT RISK
REGION...AS WELL SHOWN IN MORNING RAOBS AT DDC...OUN...AND FWD.
COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT /AVERAGE SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S F AND PW AROUND 1 INCH/...UNIMPEDED SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS N TX AND SRN/ERN
OK...WITH VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER ERN KS/FAR WRN MO.
THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
STORMS ALONG THE VARIOUS WIND SHIFT LINES/SFC BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL STORM ROTATION/LARGE HAIL
DESPITE MODEST UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

WHILE SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY EVOLVE
THIS AFTN FROM KS S/SSW INTO OK...THE GREATEST OVERALL SVR THREAT
THROUGH 12Z SUN MAY END UP FOCUSING A BIT FARTHER S...NEAR THE RED
RVR AND ACROSS N TX TO THE ARKLATEX...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT DEEPER
FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT ULTIMATELY WILL SET UP. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OR TWO...LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN.

...CNTRL HI PLNS LATE AFTN INTO TNGT...
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT PRECEDING IT...MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS
AFTN OVER SW NEB/NE CO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE SSE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TNGT INTO WRN/NRN KS. WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE
LIMITED BY SCANT MOISTURE...APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT
GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. THUS...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE
COMPARATIVELY MODEST LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0342.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302153Z - 302330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK WITH AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DRY MICROBURSTS.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SEVERAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES APPEAR PRESENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SMALL CBS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY
TX INTO BECKHAM COUNTY OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF
THE SRN PLAINS MOIST AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A FEW TSTMS SOON. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ LIES 2-3 COUNTIES SW OF
THIS TROUGH...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SUBTLE TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL OK. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT
MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL SPATIALLY AND IN AMPLITUDE...WHICH
MIGHT MITIGATE A WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 03/30/2013

One severe storm out there right now. More developing.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 630 PM CDT


* AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED IN THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE
REFUGE...ABOUT 7 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MEERS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDICINE PARK AND MEERS.

New Watch is up...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0068_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (70%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 68
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 66...WW 67...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE OVER SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
TO AROUND 80 F. MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENCE
OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP NWLY
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL /SOME EXCEEDING TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MATURE STORMS TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
INTO N-CNTRL TX LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.

Supercells popping up everywhere now.

Looks like the Comanche Co storm is splitting to the north...which it just did on the last scan.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130330_2316.png

Warning for North cell...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 700 PM CDT


* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEERS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Warning for South...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 700 PM CDT


* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN RANGE OF FORT SILL
JUST NORTH OF CACHE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS LAWTON.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Additional storms are popping up in Northern Seminole County, Garvin County, and Beckham. The cells out far west are having trouble getting established at all, but those closer to Central OK are the ones to watch.

Looks like the Comanche Co storm is splitting to the north...which it just did on the last scan.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130330_2316.pngWhat kind of radar is that? That's awesome!

What kind of radar is that? That's awesome!

GR2Analyst Main Page (http://www.grlevelx.com/gr2analyst/)

Hail size increasing on the storm near Prague.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130330_2334.png

And here is the new warning for it.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT


* AT 636 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...


* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PADEN...
BOLEY...CASTLE...BEARDEN...OKEMAH AND CLEARVIEW.


THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 229.

Expected this...watch extension to account for new cells.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 68
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKC005-015-029-051-063-123-125-133-310600-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0068.000000T0000Z-130331T0600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 68 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

GRADY POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

PONTOTOC SEMINOLE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ATOKA COAL HUGHES

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADA...ANADARKO...ATOKA...CHICKASHA...COALGATE ...HOLDENVILLE...SEMINOLE AND SHAWNEE.

Northern Seminole County Warning...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 715 PM CDT


* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLEY...AND
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROMWELL.

Storm just SE of Shawnee increasing rapidly...this is the storm in the lower right of the image.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130330_2357.png

The warning :)

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT


* AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR EARLSBORO...AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

New cell going up to the SW of Minco. Developing hail core and much of the precip is still elevated.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130331_0016.png

Storm in Caddo Co should be severe soon. It is still growing, hail core was dumped not long ago but should cycle back up as it continues to grow. Movement is very slow ESE.

EDIT UPDATE: Added imagine showing the top starting to go back up again.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130331_0030.png

Estimated hail size is now up to 1.44" and warning is now out...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 830 PM CDT


* AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINCO...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUTTLE...MINCO...AMBER AND POCASSET.

View from the north look back towards Chickasha. Showing a very large elevated hail core that will eventually come down.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130331_0034.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0346.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310037Z - 310130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF COVERAGE
INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED NORTH
OF TUL...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SPARSE IN NERN OK THUS FAR AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS
NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR TUL AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY ORIENTED
N/S ALONG A OKM-TUL-BVO LINE...AS WELL AS ALONG A WNW/ENE ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SERN KS.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS
TO SOME EXTENT AND WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DEEP SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 03/31/2013

New storm going up between Noble and Slaughterville. Very elevated right now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/ktlx_20130331_0102.png