It was a horrible day. Not a single drop of rain fell.:banghead:

Slight chance of rain Sunday evening. Better chances mid-week.

Long-term GFS showing a winter event for the last week of March. Looks like snow at this time.

Long-term GFS showing a winter event for the last week of March. Looks like snow at this time.
NO! I forbid it!

Don't worry too much. The snowfall prediction has only shown up on 3 of the last 10 GFS runs. So definitely nothing written in stone. The latest 12Z run doesn't have anything. It does have a system come through next Friday that pulls temps back below normal some. Looks like most of the moisture though is pushed east before any chance of change over. Cold air should move out in 3-4 days though after getting here.

Upcoming storm chances...

Saturday - Mainly East/South (very slim at that)
Thursday 21st - Western and Central OK during Afternoon/Evening, East after dark
Friday 29th - Western/NW OK
Saturday 30th - Central/Southern OK

I know it will rain soon... I cleaned up the jeep and dropped the top.

The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News & Video - Wall Street Journal - Wsj.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324662404578332003374563628.html#p rintMode?KEYWORDS=Sandlin)

OK weather geeks. Above is a link to a book review in the Wall Street Journal; the title is "Storm Kings" and the author is Gerard Helferich, and the review's title is "The Twister Tale." It goes into historical detail about the discovery of tornadoes by early 19th century pioneers and settlers. A couple of fun passages:

"He even examines, in amusing detail, L. Frank Baum's "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz." The children's author had never seen a tornado, and Mr. Sandlin writes that his description "does not suggest that Baum had any idea what a tornado looked like or how it behaved." As for the magical land's name, Baum's "gaze fell on his filing cabinet, where there were two drawers. One was labeled A-N, and the other, O-Z."

Then a story about damage to Tinker AFB inflicted during a March 1948 outbreak, and the base commander charging two forecasters, Robert C. Miller and E.J. Fawbush, "with devising a method of predicting the storms." Over three days' of research they confirmed the origin of tornadoes, and on the morning they presented their findings, predicted another outbreak for that afternoon between five and six o'clock. They became heroes when storms hit exactly as predicted (sometimes you get lucky).

It looks like fun reading for the wx nerds who post and read on these weather threads.

Boy I sure hope winter is done. I planted my Banana trees out and moved a few of my tropicals outside. :/

Boy I sure hope winter is done. I planted my Banana trees out and moved a few of my tropicals outside. :/

Gambler I see. :-P

Gambler I see. :-PYeah, I did this year lol. . .

Boy I sure hope winter is done. I planted my Banana trees out and moved a few of my tropicals outside. :/

I gather you did the same thing last March, and it never got below freezing. So why not gamble doing that again this year?

I gather you did the same thing last March, and it never got below freezing. So why not gamble doing that again this year?I did, but it was at the end of March. Around 30th. I've had some of my tropicals survive below freezing before 28˚ minimum. My Bananas are usually pretty tolerant but not for prolonged exposure and I usually throw a tarp over them with a heater if it gets too cold. I do have a few plants that lose leaves and might even die if it gets below 40˚ though.

Why are you planting tropical plants in Oklahoma?

Why are you planting tropical plants in Oklahoma?

Probably a better question. I only plant drought hardy plants that aren't going to die during a drought or from a quick cold snap. I can understand the attraction to some of the other plants, but in the end it is a waste of money (unless you have it to burn) and a waste of water (which we can't waste right now).

Probably a better question. I only plant drought hardy plants that aren't going to die during a drought or from a quick cold snap. I can understand the attraction to some of the other plants, but in the end it is a waste of money (unless you have it to burn) and a waste of water (which we can't waste right now).

Seems like planting a cactus would be a better use of the gardening budget these days.

Why are you planting tropical plants in Oklahoma?Long story, short, it's because I want to. I actually have a small portion of my yard that has around 7-10 Banana trees and Elephant ears scattered around in that area. I have about 35 tropical plants in pots that a bring out each year. For the most part, my yard is mostly filled with native plants, though. It's a hobby really. :)

Seems like planting a cactus would be a better use of the gardening budget these days.I do have a few cacti scattered around. I just bought a Prickly Pear cactus last year at TLC and it's been going along quite well.

Figures that the day after I plant some seeds and bring home some new plants, we get a cold, gray day. :(

Figures that the day after I plant some seeds and bring home some new plants, we get a cold, gray day. :(EXACTLY!!!!! lol

Don't expect it to change. There will be a few bumps back into the 60s here and there, but fairly cool for the rest of the month it appears on the 12Z GFS.

Upcoming Precip Chances
- Thurs 21st through AM Friday 22nd: Mostly all rain, maybe a mix far north.
- Monday 25th: All rain, though GFS indicates change over to snow before it pulls out.
- Friday 29th through Sunday 31st: All rain, maybe some storms.

ugh... time to go put the top back up on the jeep :(

Quick look via the 12Z GFS...

Precip Chances
- Thursday AM through early Sunday morning. Won't be a nonstop rainfall, but looks like some parts will get a decent amount. Trace to 0.20" western third of OK, 0.4-0.6" Central third, 0.8 to 1.75" Eastern third. Rain will end from west (Saturday) to east (Sunday).
- Thursday 28th through early Saturday 30th morning. Same scenario as before...best rain chances here will be on Thursday/Friday. Mostly light amounts.
- Sunday 31st - mostly Eastern OK only.

Storm Chances
- Thursday 21st: Western OK
- Friday 22nd: Central, South Central, and SE OK. Some severe.
- Saturday 23rd: Far SE OK, Some severe.
- Thursday 28th: Western half of OK. Some severe NW.
- Friday 29th: Eastern half of OK. Some severe.
- Saturday 30th: Eastern half of OK. Some severe.

Accumulating Snow (areas near these might see mixing, but no substantial accumulations)
- Thursday: Far NE OK (2-4")
- Saturday 23rd: Western PH (~1" early), I-44 area from OKC to MO border (< 1" to 3" near KS line)
- Monday 1st: Far NE OK (slight chance)

GFS keeps trending towards a snow event at least in NW and N OK. Trying to sneak some down towards central, but it looks really similar to all the setups from this winter.


This is for Sunday, btw.

Don't need any snow... Riding the bike (motorcycle) down to Dallas Friday and coming back Sunday.

Well I hope you have a pancho.

Well I hope you have a pancho.

Oh yeah... I have rain gear and cold weather gear but that doesn't mean I like riding in it.

Don't need any snow... Riding the bike (motorcycle) down to Dallas Friday and coming back Sunday.

He said NW and N Oklahoma... you goin the opposite way buddy...

Decent looking chance of rain Thursday into Friday.

Better chance on Saturday (initial severe potential) into Sunday. [Winter weather trending more towards unlikely]


Long range looks like a pretty active pattern is setting up over the next few weeks. Severe weather looks probable scattered throughout.

He said NW and N Oklahoma... you goin the opposite way buddy...

I know but there's still a good chance of rain here and it will be cold.

I know but there's still a good chance of rain here and it will be cold.

If ya leave tomorrow you'll have awesome riding weather ;)

Slight Risk of severe weather today over a very small part of Southern OK and Northern Texas

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A PART OF N-CNTRL TX/FAR
S-CNTRL OK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EFFECTIVELY
UNDERCUT/WEAKEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AS
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LEE CYCLONE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX BY EARLY EVENING. DRYLINE WILL ARC S/SWWD
TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
EXTEND E OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE ARKLATEX. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.

...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL AID IN THE
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCHES PER WED
EVENING RAOB AND GPS DATA/. THIS SHOULD YIELD SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY LATE-AFTERNOON NEAR THE RED RIVER
IN N-CNTRL TX WITHIN A NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR. WITH POST-DRYLINE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...CIN
WILL WEAKEN AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN N-CNTRL TX BETWEEN 21-00Z. THIS REGION SHOULD
LIE JUST N OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SPLITTING CELLS.

THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT MLCAPE SHOULD ONLY REACH
AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO
MORE ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE-BASED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SURFACE-BASED
TSTMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS MLCIN INCREASES WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/GRADUAL
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB SHOULD YIELD INCREASING NOCTURNAL TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/ERN OK TO THE ARKLATEX. A FEW MARGINAL
HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME AMIDST A CLUSTERED
CONVECTIVE MODE.

..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 03/21/2013

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

Does anyone have any insight as to what the models are predicting for between OKC and Wichita, KS on Sunday: Snow and ice accumulations, road conditions?

If ya leave tomorrow you'll have awesome riding weather ;)

LOL it's looking better up here but worse down there. If this wasn't a benefit event for a girl I know that has cancer I wouldn't go.

LOL it's looking better up here but worse down there. If this wasn't a benefit event for a girl I know that has cancer I wouldn't go.

Take to Amtrak. Ride the rails. Im guessing you don't want to rent a car. Definitely a good cause :)

Take to Amtrak. Ride the rails. Im guessing you don't want to rent a car. Definitely a good cause :)

I have a jeep and if it's raining hard I'll take it but it's a Poker Run and would prefer to have the bike. Getting wet is nothing compared to what she's already gone through.

Why does Ch. 9 say 60% of rain and 40 degrees for Sunday when everybody else is saying 20% or less and partly cloudy?

Rain with a couple of imbedded storms with small hail moving through right now ahead of the warm front. All this should push out in the next couple of hours. Then we'll see storms refire along the cold front this evening. Best chance for severe weather is in a small area of South Central OK.

Next chance of rain is on Saturday through Sunday. Amounts look relatively light with most precip out of the area by early Sunday morning. Accumulating winter precip chances look like they'll be confined to the northern tier of counties and amounts generally less than 1" if anything. I will say that upper air temps will allow for some snow in Central OK if any precip lags behind overnight Saturday into Sunday. Not expecting anything that would stick though.

New SPC site is up for preview...seems to have a ton of information and might be too busy for many: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0290.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212225Z - 220100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY AROUND 00Z FROM NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK WITH A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH BASED CU IN THE DEEPLY
MIXED AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WLY WIND GUSTS. TO THE
E...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM SJT TO JUST E OF ABI TO NEAR SPS.
WHILE A COOL A CLOUDY AIR MASS EXISTS E OF THE DRYLINE...A NARROW
ZONE OF HEATING WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.

AS FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
INCREASE...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF MWL...WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELL TO FORM. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL AROUND
SEVERE CRITERIA AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER N INTO OK...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/21/2013

Chances for meaningful precipitation seem to be dying with every run....

Cold and dry looks to be the new theme this weekend.

Mmmhmm. NAM is pretty much bone dry now. GFS isn't looking all that better. Hopefully April and May are wet or this is going to be a long summer.

So. We have two different model solutions here from the 12Z runs. One is craptastic and the other is...more probable. Let's go with the one that I currently feel is out to lunch in la la land.

GFS 12Z
It has trended much further south with the cold air and precip. I'm not buying this one at all, but I'll still share so we aren't completely caught off guard.
Through 10PM this evening - light rain around nothing major. Precip increases some out west, but mainly still back in the TX PH. Upper air temps plenty warm, no issue...moving on.
By 1AM - Upper air temps cool some, but still above freezing from 1500' and down. However, GFS pulls in colder air out west changing rain over to snow where we could see 1-3" of accumulation (according to this model) in West central and NW OK.
By 4AM - Upper air is will below freezing all the way down. Light to moderate precip will be moving through Central and Northern Oklahoma. Some areas could see a quarter to half inch of precip. For the areas below freezing this could mean 2-4" of snow, some places higher - all before ground melt.
By 7AM - Precip is out of the area and just some lingering flurries are left.

So that's the GFS...now the NAM.

Air temps pretty much on the same wave length as GFS, just moisture being the big difference. Could see some light rain/snow kick in around 10PM this evening and continue until about 4AM. Any snow that falls likely won't stick and looking at less than 1" of accumulations in most areas. Could see 1-2" far NW and northern OK...but not really much more than that.

So believe which one you want. :)

Winter Weather Advisory is out for far NW OK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013


OKZ004>006-009-010-240500-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.130324T0000Z-130324T0500Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY.




* TIMING: SATURDAY EVENING.


* MAIN IMPACT: BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TWO TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM ARNETT TO
FREEDOM. AREAS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

You mean travelers advisory right? lol Just kidding of course.

You mean travelers advisory right? lol Just kidding of course.

Oooooo.... LOL

We are getting about a foot of snow here in Aurora today.

This is some kind of sick joke:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/NA/gfsNA_850_temp_168.gif

24 degrees Fahrenheit? It is factually recorded that the last freeze for OKC metro area is usually in early April so this doesn't surprise me.

Well, if we're going to be this PITA unseasonably cold, we might as well have some snow to go with it:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/27/06/GFS_3_2013032706_F180_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

"PITA unseasonably cold?" The high temps for the next five days are forecast to be in the mid-to-upper sixties!

OKCTalker: I'm not sure where you've been the last few weeks, but other than a short 3-day stretch temperatures have run well-below average for the month of March.

Yes Gary did say we've had January average temps this month.

Looks like sporadic rain chances Friday thru possibly Tuesday. Not a wash-out, but it appears to be some decent chances of waves/storms of precip.

I better get the back yard mowed tonight or tomorrow night.

It looks like another arctic blast is in store for next week. Its looking like we will start April with highs in the 30s and lows in the low 20s/high 10s with rain/snow mix possible Monday into Tuesday. Typical January weather in April.

It looks like another arctic blast is in store for next week. Its looking like we will start April with highs in the 30s and lows in the low 20s/high 10s with rain/snow mix possible Monday into Tuesday. Typical January weather in April.This freakin sucks!!!!!!!!!!!

Storm Prediction Center Mar 28, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)

The new look SPC site is out and is pretty spiffy. With that, we are under a slight risk on Saturday for nearly everyone west of I-35.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NWRN TX...WRN
OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS PROCESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
ACCELERATION OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD THROUGH
WY EARLY SATURDAY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THIS
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO
THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL
THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM
TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/28/2013

12Z Model runs showing potential for severe weather is increase in the state as we close out the month. Models have some differences between them and a lot of this is dependent on pre-existing convection from the prior day. Going to go day by day.

Today
Nothing. Beautiful Spring day. Enjoy it. :) Now for later tonight isolated showers and storms are forecast to develop, really over anywhere in the state. Highest concentration will be to the east. NAM focuses coverage in NE OK, GFS is more broad and NSSL WRF has it pretty scattered all over - with most after dark. Things are unstable out there, you can feel the moisture returning with dews back into the 50s over much of the state. However, don't expect anything to get too rambunctious.

Friday
A few early showers/storms NE OK. Rain starts to develop in the afternoon over Central back into NW OK. Rain will expand back to the SW part of the state through the evening. NAM is more aggressive with precip, GFS is much lighter in amounts and coverage. For Central OK, things will be unstable early and then stabilize through the afternoon as the precip moves back to the west. We could see a couple stronger storms here with some small hail and gusty winds. Threat will shift pretty far west overnight and then return Saturday.

Saturday
This looks like the first bonafide severe weather day of the season. We'll have to see how this unfolds but it could be a good one. This day is already outlooked as a Slight Risk by SPC in their Day 3. Instability through the afternoon will be high across Central into Western OK. We are looking at a fairly widespread area of CAPE values from 2500 to 3500 j/kg from Lake Eufaula back to Lawton and then North. Right now it appears we'll see scattered supercells and line segments get going in the mid to late afternoon across Western OK. Things should then firm up to a solid line or organized segments of embedded supercells. Reaching most of the Metro area by 8-10PM. Forecast soundings are pretty significant for this early in the season. A lot of the parameters are lined up for a high end Slight Risk day, but there are also several limiting factors from calling this a Moderate Risk day. SRH values don't look exciting when the storms move in, but there will be some shear present. We are looking at surface winds coming out of the South with upper level winds from the WNW. General rule of thumb, if you want things turning, SE wind is best...but not needed. Storm motions look reasonable for this time of year - 300 @ 16 kts on average. Considering April is known for storms that just go flying by at 40-60 mph, I'll take some slow movers. So main thing here, if you have outdoor plans just stay weather aware come late afternoon into the overnight.

Sunday
Looks like some left over storms and a few new ones in the afternoon. Looking at mainly I-40 and south. Instability will be there, but this looks like a calmer day compared to Saturday. Nothing to worry about right now.

Looks like we'll then have a calm (severe weather wise) week ahead. GFS is still sticking with its snowfall Tuesday/Wednesday, but amounts look light overall. Maybe a quarter inch of precip those days, so if the snow does happen it'll only be a couple inches on relatively warm ground. So travel issues look like they'll be close to zero. Temps rebound and we are back into the 60s and 70s next weekend, with another chance of severe weather as a strong storm system pulls through. Shocker I know. :)

OKCTalker: I'm not sure where you've been the last few weeks, but other than a short 3-day stretch temperatures have run well-below average for the month of March.

s00nr1 - I thought that you were talking about UPCOMING unseasonably cold weather, not that cold mess we'd already gone through.

I hope it stays Spring after next week's cold snap. lol

I hope it stays Spring after next week's cold snap. lol

Key part...stays Spring and not jump right into Summer. LOL