What is QPF? Quality Precipitation Forecast? And is that map for liquid precip? Heck, that would be a roof crusher up around Woodward if all that fell as snow!

Close. Quantitative Precip Forecast.

Close. Quantitative Precip Forecast.

That's probably more accurate since they'd most likely get crucified for having Q stand for Quality if their models were wrong more often than not.

Well, well, well. Isn't this Tornado Awareness Month or something, or just the beginning of official twister season? Before long, with any luck, I'll be sweeping up the dead June bugs, leaves, dog hair, spider webs, and dirt in the hidey hole, in preparation for shake-rattle and-roll-time.

Well, well, well. Isn't this Tornado Awareness Month or something, or just the beginning of official twister season? Before long, with any luck, I'll be sweeping up the dead June bugs, leaves, dog hair, spider webs, and dirt in the hidey hole, in preparation for shake-rattle and-roll-time.

Storm spotting training seminars, both on and offline in Oklahoma this month. 2013 Storm Spotter Training - NWS Norman (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spottertalklist)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

Hefner is now showing at 83% full (of its conservation pool) where T-Bird at 64%. One to note...Canton Lake is now at 13% after OKC drained it.

Here is how our rain situation is looking for next weekend. This is going to keep fluctuating, but we can be pretty certain its going to happen at this point. Though the amounts can still vary quite a bit from run to run. Noticing on this run how the bulk of the heavy rain is pushed in to the panhandles. We could see some severe weather on the 11th (when this starts to finish up) in SE OK. Another chance of storms, maybe severe weather across more of the state, coming up the 14th/15th.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/02/12/GFS_3_2013030212_F228_PCPIN_96_HR.png

Region 11 Forecast (Texas-Oklahoma) MAR. 2013
1-7 Rain to snow north, showers south; warm, then cold.

I think The Old Farmer's Almanac (by Robert B. Thomas) nailed it.
(or maybe not) (i haven't yet figured out how to use the tide tables =)

So far they have missed it by a mile . . . and the rest of the week doesn't look so good either.

Is there any way to tell if the weather pattern has shifted enough to predict possible spring/summer rains?

Is there any way to tell if the weather pattern has shifted enough to predict possible spring/summer rains?

A lot of that is going to go off of climatology, but here are some details on what the long range outlooks are showing:

National Weather Service Climate (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=oun&lead=3)

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Color Maps (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php)

Right now showing Below Average Precip and Above Average Temps.

18Z tried to push a lot of the moisture south, but 00Z snapped back a little.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/03/00/GFS_3_2013030300_F240_PCPIN_96_HR.png

12Z GFS morning update...

On Monday morning the last remaining precip will start to move out. Chance this could include/change to freezing rain before ending. Some light snow in the TX Panhandle on Sunday...1-3".

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/03/12/GFS_3_2013030312_F192_PCPIN_72_HR.png

I am loving the weather today! I am excited for Spring to come soon! Good riddance Winter!

I normally don't pay much attention to midday model runs this far out...but 18Z GFS had a noticeable change to it. I think it is pretty apparent.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/03/18/GFS_3_2013030318_F174_PCPIN_72_HR.png

Throw that model in the trash

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

NAM only goes out 84 hours and ECMWF is pretty restricted down as far was what products can be linked to the public. UKMET also isn't going to out far enough...at least with the products that can be linked here. So GFS gets it by default since it is readily available and goes out around 2 weeks.

Looks like GFS is latching on to the new solution. We'll see if this keeps up. Main storm system doesn't come on shore into the Pac NW until late Tuesday/Early Wednesday. So we aren't going to get any quality upper air readings until after that takes place. Then we need to let the models play with the data to see what they kick out.

Right now most of the precip is being limited to the 9th now and rough a half inch or less over the state. The heavier precip is taken up through NE/IA/MO. Again we'll see what happens, but the needed rainfall seems to be vanishing quick. One thing to always keep in mind, droughts are tough to break once established.

Now one thing to note with the setup next weekend. The main storm system seems to get cut off and dives south into Northern Mexico. So the precip on the 9th is just with the first wave of energy from this system. I would imagine that since the main system isn't coming through at the same time is why the precip amounts are plummeting. Main storm will swing out March 12, but track pretty far south through Texas. So heaviest rain will stay down there but some light rain (less than a quarter inch) over Central and Eastern OK that evening seems probable.

Next system swings out around the 15th. The main low will be in Manitoba, but the trough extends all the way south glancing OK. A lot of energy projected with it but not a lot of rain. Could be a good MS valley severe weather setup.

Things get pretty zonal after that so not much in the way of any activity near us. However, that'll all change with the runs tomorrow...and the ones after that...and the...you get the idea. :)

Storm spotting training seminars, both on and offline in Oklahoma this month. 2013 Storm Spotter Training - NWS Norman (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spottertalklist)

Thanks, Bunty.

Rainfall amounts are up a bit due to a squall line that is expected now, that could have some marginal severe weather with it. Looks like ~1" east of I-35, around a half inch west of I-35 (some higher spots). Time frame looks to be pretty constrained to Saturday evening into Sunday moring now for Central OK.

I am loving the weather today! I am excited for Spring to come soon! Good riddance Winter!

We had a winter?

We had a winter?
You've already forgotten last month's OKC blizzard?

You've already forgotten last month's OKC blizzard?

I'm keeping my snow shovel by the door just in case we have another one.

I'm keeping my snow shovel by the door just in case we have another one.

You mean umbrella right? lol

Curious why you typically post the GFS and not the NAM or European models. I've found the European models to be just as accurate as the GFS long-range. That being said models are still very wrong even several days out. Hopefully that improves in the future with more weather-related research..

yr.no has Oklahoma City getting .9" for this weekend.

After over 30 years of occasional watching nobody on TV delivers a weather presentation / forecast IMHO as good as Chicago’s WGN chief meteorologist Tom Skilling.

I wish our local OKC TV meteorologist used the same type of graphics.

We had a winter?

Of course we did. Why, some days I put on a hat and a sleeveless vest both! Brrrrrr, a bad one it were.

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

It showed up once on yesterday's 12Z GFS run, but was gone on the 18Z, 00Z, and the latest 06Z run. Mister hype monster needs to relax and let things develop for a couple days before raising any red flags.

Still looking like a quick moving line of storms Saturday. Hopefully they dump a lot of rain.

NAM isn't liking storm chances for Saturday, breaking up most precip before reaching Central OK. GFS keeps chances in place, but overall pretty low on the amounts side - generally a quarter inch or less now.

NAM this evening has a line of storms develop over the TX PH Friday evening, moving into Western OK through the overnight Saturday into Sat AM. Then it has them die out west of I-35. Some scattered light precip Sat Afternoon before refiring the line in SE OK late Saturday.

The evening GFS run is through this time period as well and is lining up pretty close to the NAM now. So the chances for any significant, widespread heavy rain appears all but dead. Best hope now is going to be with any storms that could dump enough over a smaller area.

Yeah, the yr.no forecast has the precip reduced to hardly over .10 now.

That's too bad because we need the rain

This system is certainly taking the high road track...

Basically cross your fingers that a substantial line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps across OK and that your yard gets a lucky downpour or two.

We Canton rely on models two weeks out...

Slight Risk this evening for far western OK...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK
AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID GENERATION

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS DOMINATED BY TWO PRIMARY CYCLONES
-- ONE OVER ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH STG VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING
WWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION...AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS
AREA OFFSHORE SRN CA. AS MID-ATLC PERTURBATION MOVES
OFFSHORE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO
UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS.
MEANWHILE...MAIN PAC LOW WILL TURN EWD ACROSS SRN CA...REACHING NEAR
AZ/NM BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW --
INCLUDING ROUGHLY 120-KT 250-MB JET MAX AND ELONGATED RIBBON OF
80-90 KT 500-MB WINDS -- WILL SHIFT EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN AZ AND NRN
MEX..IN STEP WITH PROGRESS OF CA CYCLONE. SMALLER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN ORE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...LOSING IDENTITY WITH TIME AS ITS
VORTICITY FIELD IS ENTRAINED INTO TRAILING PORTION OF CA
PERTURBATION. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AND IS FCST TO
DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD OVER MO/AR THIS EVENING.

AT SFC...15Z CHART SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SRN PORTION KS/CO BORDER
REGION...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND
WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH SSWWD OVER ERN NM. DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME
BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM BIG-BEND REGION GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS WRN
TX/OK PANHANDLES...RETREATING WWD SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SFC
LOW...INITIALLY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WAS
EVIDENT OVER SRN NV IN DRA-LAS AREA...WITH PAC COLD FRONT ARCHING
GENERALLY SWD OVER NRN BAJA. INTERMOUNTAIN LOW AND LEE LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO MERGE OVER ERN CO AROUND END OF PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...PAC
COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO RETREATED DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK NEAR DRYLINE...BUT
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM
AFTER DARK...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS PAC COLD FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT CATCH UP TO DRYLINE.
GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ERN CO/WRN KS INVOF
SFC LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT.

AS LEADING/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION...
1. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR...ACTING TO TEMPORARILY
REINFORCE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH WEAK DAVA/DVM WHILE EWD
ADVECTION OF REMAINING EML CONTINUES.
2. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE AWAY...LEAVING BROAD GAP OF
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL
OF NEXT UVV PLUME...NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER AZ.
3. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FARTHER
E AND STRENGTHENING MIXING ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. W TX MESONET
DATA INDICATES LOW-50S F SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED AREA BETWEEN
CDS-LBB. THOUGH MOISTENING VIA ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS IN NARROW CORRIDOR
E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z...FROM ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK SWD.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE E OF CAPROCK OVER SRN PLAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEARER TO DRYLINE. BUOYANCY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN NWD OVER WRN
KS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. ROBUST MID-UPPER LIFT IS NOT FCST
TO REACH OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT -- LIKELY AFTER 03Z. AS
SUCH...EML-RELATED CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN STG...DELAYING ONSET OF
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WHILE LIMITING BOTH ITS SWD EXTENT AND
DIURNAL COVERAGE. STILL...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DARK INVOF
DRYLINE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
AND AT LEAST ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT RISK
OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY
INITIALLY HIGH LCL AND DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH SHOULD
STRENGTHEN FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING AS MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES E OF DRYLINE...TROUGH ALOFT APCHS...AND BROAD/45-55 KT LLJ
TAKES SHAPE FROM W TX TO SERN NEB. RELATED HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT
SHOULD YIELD 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN SUPPORT OF STORM-SCALE
ROTATION. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER
ABOUT 06Z...WITH INCREASING HAIL RISK INTO EVENING. TORNADO
POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS MITIGATED BY LACK OF ROBUST
MOISTURE...AND BY LIMITED TEMPORAL WINDOW BETWEEN EVENING LOWERING
OF LCL AND LOSS OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013

HRRR run showing the line of storms tonight at Midnight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013030815/t5/cref_t5sfc_f15.png

Good destabilization occuring in the E TX pan handle to get the storms fired up nicely.

Hopefully they will get enough steam to make it to C OK.

So is the Mike Morgan arctic blast or whatever you want to call it going to materialize or not?

I am thinking about planting some of my garden.

Not sure what MM said, but looking @ the models I don't see significant cold air anytime soon. Unless something drastic changes in the long-term I think we may be saying goodbye to winter. I would say planting vegetation is a greenlight. :D

Not sure what MM said, but looking @ the models I don't see significant cold air anytime soon. Unless something drastic changes in the long-term I think we may be saying goodbye to winter. I would say planting vegetation is a greenlight. :DThanks…… I will be planting some cool weather vegies soon.

Yeah the big Morgan Arctic Blast was on maybe 1 or 2 model runs...10 runs ago. LOL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0252.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082143Z - 090015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND LATER
INTO PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS. TIMING IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 23-01Z.

DISCUSSION...DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF
WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HAS RECENTLY
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT WWD AS
MIXING DIMINISHES WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHARACTER OF
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NAM PFCS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL CAPPED EAST OF DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD BENEATH AN EML. THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NWD WHERE AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
CURRENTLY EXISTS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK.

HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH NM
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOIST
AXIS OVER WRN TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE TO AOA 45 KT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS SHOULD KEEP TORNADO WINDOW RELATIVELY SMALL.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0048_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT FRI MAR 8 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
STEADILY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH
PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN OK THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS TIED TO INCREASING FORCING
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR UNDER THE INITIAL INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST
STATES UPPER TROUGH. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE OF ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG. EVEN SO...AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Slight Risk today has been expanded into Central Oklahoma. It includes all areas east of a line from near Frederick to El Reno to Guthrie...and south of a line from Guthrie and due east. Highest tornado risk today is from South Central OK from Norman south into the DFW area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WAVES WITHIN SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN ONE STREAM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLOW WILL
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AS A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FLATTENS RIDGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS
THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. AN IMPULSE SPLITTING OFF THIS FEATURE MAY
DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A CLOSED LOW WITHIN A
SEPARATE STREAM TO THE SOUTH...EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BUT VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE
MODEL DATA CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FACTOR INTO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIG WITHIN LINGERING BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
SHARPENS DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

COOL SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AHEAD OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CYCLONIC BELT OF 70-90 KT 500 MB
FLOW...PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND CONTRIBUTING TO A
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 09/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME
HEATING THEN APPEARS PROBABLE ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAINTAINS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE INDICATES AT
LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW ADVANCING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY
PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON STORM INITIATION...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS....AND PERHAPS AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS
INDICATE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /40-50+ KT/ WILL TEND TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. BUT THEY ARE SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST
SOME OVERLAP OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0260.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH NWRN TX INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091839Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY FROM WCNTRL-NWRN TX INTO
SWRN-SCNTRL OK. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM WRN OK SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL AND SWRN TX. THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR HAS CLEARED OUT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN OK WITH A BROADER AREA OF CLEARING FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NWRN AND WCNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND
WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL CAPE MAGNITUDES WITH 800-1500 J/KG
LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
OVERALL INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. LLJ WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VEERING AND WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/09/2013

Looks like the weather is going to turn nice around mid-week... time to open the windows for some fresh air in the house.

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quiet weather until about the end of this weekend and into next week. At this time it looks like rain.

So forecast for late weekend and early next week has a chance of storms. Instability will start to increase over the weekend. Storms should begin to break out in the late Afternoon mainly in the area from I-35 west to about Clinton to Altus line. GFS putting CAPE values around 1000-1250 j/kg and LI values will be in the -4 to -6 range over that area. All pretty decent for this time of year to get a few strong storms. Temps look to be well into the 70s that day so heat won't be an issue. Dewpoints well into the mid to upper 50s as well, so we'll have moisture around. Upper winds look fairly linear but some twist to them (SSW at surface to WSW higher up). Severe risk right now I would say is pretty marginal to slight.

Storms increase overnight and move east. Might see some redevelopment over SW OK Monday, but it won't last. Monday looks like the main show with this system in the Plains and it will be mainly from Extreme SE OK through NE TX and back to the SE towards Austin. Pretty high instabilities down in that area and could see the first decent severe weather day for the Plains this year.

Looking farther down the road. Some storms possible Late Saturday the 23rd through Sunday the 24th. This could be a late show west, overnight central, and during the day East.

Winter precip wise...not seeing any for the rest of the month at this point. So we have probably turned the corner unless something changes quickly. Which it can. :)

Well, this sucks! This isn't really Feb. or March related weather, but thought I'd post it anyways. Long-range forecasts predict dry, hot summer for Oklahoma | News OK (http://newsok.com/long-range-forecasts-predict-dry-hot-summer-for-oklahoma/article/3764848)

Chances of rain this coming weekend to next week look to be diminishing somewhat on current model runs.

Long-term at this time is showing a possible return of old man winter sometime around the 24th.

Heard mike Morgan yesterday say there was an arctic blast coming in 8 to 10 days.

This is why people can't take the local weathermen seriously.

Well, this sucks! This isn't really Feb. or March related weather, but thought I'd post it anyways. Long-range forecasts predict dry, hot summer for Oklahoma | News OK (http://newsok.com/long-range-forecasts-predict-dry-hot-summer-for-oklahoma/article/3764848)

This is great news! Looks like a wet, mild summer is ahead!

Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center, addressing the group over a video link from Washington, D.C., said drought is a natural part of the climate cycle. But the cycle, he said, “is more vigorous” in a period of changing climate.

So is he saying that the planet has had a static climate until now? This is why I can't take the "man-made climate change" scientists seriously.

So is he saying that the planet has had a static climate until now? This is why I can't take the "man-made climate change" scientists seriously.

I wouldn't say static, but I would say more predictable. We can only go off of the data we have. Ice cores provide a decent amount of data going back 10-12 thousand years, but still not far enough to really measure accurate ice age/warm period cycles. The latest research does suggest over the last 100 years, we have warmed faster than previously discovered (so far). Does that mean man-made climate charge is real? Who knows. However, I think if we take a look at what causes a planet to warm and see what the contributors are, there has to be at least a very small link. Our population has exploded and we do produce more carbon. However, we also need to look at vegetation trends over the time as well. If there is less coverage, and its occurring naturally, then that has just as much to play (if not more) in this whole thing.

This is great news! Looks like a wet, mild summer is ahead!Ahhhh, I see what you did there. ;)

What a beautiful day it was.

What a beautiful day it was.

It was a horrible day. Not a single drop of rain fell.