Snow flakes starting to fall downtown...

Nothing falling here on the eastside of Norman.

A few flakes of snow but mostly still drizzle at NW 122 and Council...

Conditions are getting worse alot faster now ...

http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi

Low is still tracking almost due east.

The deformation zone in W TX is falling apart, it will most likely reestablish itself in NW TX into W OK. If you are wondering what kind of amounts the deformation can put out, ask Lubbock TX.


It is interesting to see the stalled out snowline draped across the W side of the metro. Many of the mesonet stations in W OK are going down due to frozen precip and winds.

KWTV CH9 is showing galloping power lines near Watonga

Much of the area between Oklahoma City and Tulsa is in a dry slot now. If there it would be a good time to get out to get what you need before snow sets in tonight.

Made a quick snap shot to show what is going on. Can see the newer bands of precip form down to the SE through the Ada area. The dry slot is filling in pretty good now west of that area. A little dry area still back in Western OK, but don't be fooled by this image. When you click over the FDR site, it'll show precip over all of SW OK except for Caddo Co. So its pretty well filled in now. More mPING reports of snow in the Metro area so we probably aren't far from change over. These showers moving North from the SW will likely had a decent amount of sleet in them.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/screengrab-1426.png

Snow flakes starting to fall downtown...

Tilly, how hard is it coming down? I still have to commute back to Stillwater, wondering when I should leave.

12Z-WRF-NMM

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

This mid-level drying in eastern OK is not a surprise. It's the reason that the Tulsa NWS has been conservative with headlines. If the comma head holds and reforms as Anonymous mentioned and as this reflectivity simulation shows... we'll get good snow here in OKC. Perhaps REALLY good snow.

Tilly, how hard is it coming down? I still have to commute back to Stillwater, wondering when I should leave.

Hard to tell exactly, I'm up in one of the towers and we're engulfed in a cloud now. When I could see the precipitation earlier I would say a flurry, no real accumulation yet, but could definitely see snow flakes. The other guys on her could better answer as to timing of snowfall over the next few hours though...

@pmarshwx Patrick Marsh 13 mins
National Weather Center Microwave Radiometer shows cooling aloft…but also drying. pic.twitter.com/3N7zEXGbws

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BD-dzJPCAAE3W-T.png:large

Still a big phat NOTHING at NW 23rd & Meridian...

@pmarshwx Patrick Marsh 13 mins
National Weather Center Microwave Radiometer shows cooling aloft…but also drying. pic.twitter.com/3N7zEXGbws

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BD-dzJPCAAE3W-T.png:large


So what's it gonna be? Is the storm gonna gather force or fall apart over OKC? Any snow predictions?

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

That's fine by me!

I'll be making a sign that says "I Survived Winter-Weather-Warning--Actually-Just-A-Good-Solid-Rain-Pocalypse 2013"

So what's it gonna be? Is the storm gonna gather force or fall apart over OKC? Any snow predictions?

Dryslot is overhead right now, which is why that image shows moisture decreasing. However this should start to move out. As these bands of precip start moving in that will help to moisten things back up.

37* and rain in Edmond. That's how it's been for the past 30-45 min.

Mike Morgan feels the metro will only receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Ha ha! I'd be cool with that too. But I don't feel that will happen. Unless something magical happens like the low spinning down right where it is... or the low accelerating incredibly fast and outrunning it's precip shield instead of dragging it along like it's probably gonna do. I respect Mike... I remember being a kid watching him on May 3rd, but I think he's wrong. But... if he sees that he's wrong... he'll revise his thinking and let us know. The low has to move east... pressure falls are already occurring near the ArkLaTex. Dry slot will move east. Snow bands will move east. For us to not get snow here in OKC the low would have to do something unprecedented. IMO.

Venture, Would it be a fair statement that things are in such a flux that nobody, at this point, really knows what's going to happen in Oklahoma City?

34.9 degrees in far SW OKC - the rain is fat. I thought it was going to turn to snow a few minutes ago but it hasn't made up its mind what it wants to do. In fact, in the past couple of minutes it sort of slacked off.

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

3383

Venture, Would it be a fair statement that things are in such a flux that nobody, at this point, really knows what's going to happen in Oklahoma City?

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses. :)

34.9 degrees in far SW OKC - the rain is fat. I thought it was going to turn to snow a few minutes ago but it hasn't made up its mind what it wants to do. In fact, in the past couple of minutes it sort of slacked off.

And so goes the life of a Weather Prognosticator . . . =)
(i think that radio gary england and his miraculous thunder lizard back around '82 had a fair chance of being exactly right.)

No "dis" intended nor implied to Mr. V.
You never "panic". You only tell the truth the best way you can.
(and i, for one, appreciate that fact)

(i simply hope that the strange stuff falling from the sky doesn't turn on us and become ice . . . no way that would be good.)

Decious, maybe Mike Morgan is thinking that the backside of the Low is going to break up like it has been doing in the Texas panhandle. If that's the case, then a whopping 1-3" is our best shot.

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

3383

Guessing that's going forward? Another 4-5" in Amarillo will take it to almost two feet. Crazy.

Can't tell if the precip in Edmond is fatter rain or the beginning of the snow transition. Either way, its heavier though.

Channel 5 predictor for 11PM tonight

3383

It looks like the big storm stalled before it really made it to OKC. Looks like it's hanging around to the west and dry air moving into central Ok.

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses. :)

Thank you. Good explanation and I looked up nowcasting and have a better understanding. I sure appreciate your efforts here!

Latest Wind report...Won't be shocked to see Canadian and Grady upgraded to a Blizzard Warning if the wind keeps up.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustarrows.gif

That predictor thing is garbage, that image looks like it is from last night. It is completely moved out of W TX Panhandle, that graphic makes my brain hurt.



It looks as if the low is finally starting a jog N of E, so an ENE movement.

OKC getting decent snow all depends on how the deformation zone sets up. Right now it looks like it is coming to fruition in SW OK into NW TX. This is all new, moderate to heavy precip. If you want to know how it is doing, look @ Ardmore to Lawton to Altus, this is where the precip will redevelop on itself throughout the evening if we are to get good snow.


OKC being stuck in the mid 30s for most of the day has allowed ground temperatures to stay in the upper 30s... The temperature barrier is really bizzare to me.

Sleet/freezing rain in Edmond. Temp on the car still shows 37*.

Ha ha! I'd be cool with that too. But I don't feel that will happen. Unless something magical happens like the low spinning down right where it is... or the low accelerating incredibly fast and outrunning it's precip shield instead of dragging it along like it's probably gonna do. I respect Mike... I remember being a kid watching him on May 3rd, but I think he's wrong. But... if he sees that he's wrong... he'll revise his thinking and let us know. The low has to move east... pressure falls are already occurring near the ArkLaTex. Dry slot will move east. Snow bands will move east. For us to not get snow here in OKC the low would have to do something unprecedented. IMO.


Thanks…. I really like reading and hearing all the different opinions…
Nobody in meteorology bats 1000%.

If the low keeps tracking east before turning to the northeast would that not put OKC in a better position to receive higher snow totals?

Decious, maybe Mike Morgan is thinking that the backside of the Low is going to break up like it has been doing in the Texas panhandle. If that's the case, then a whopping 1-3" is our best shot.

I'd take that! Really. But... the dry air isn't a surprise... it always happens... it's part of the deal, but the Norman NWS thinks that it should be overcome and the latest model data suggests that it will be overcome. It has been trying to win all day but precip keeps reforming. Anything CAN happen, but I'm hoping for 5 or 6 inches. Lotta warm air being pulled into the system. It's late February and this isn't North Dakota so... Ha ha ha! I like snow. The low is strong enough to dump two feet of snow so of course it has wrapped in dry air. I'm hoping it's also strong enough to fight it off. We'll see. But... if the NWS says blue and the media says green. I'm going blue until I see different. :)

Man, a lot of posts on this thread today. Something going on?

http://www.youthchg.com/images/huh2.jpg

I think at this point it is a bias of forecasters who rely on models to tell them what is going on to those that practice a more "nowcasting" type of approach. Here we are more of the nowcast bunch that adjusts quickly to trends we start to see and pass on those signs. We also have to keep in mind that Winter storms don't happen all the time down here so the amount of experience isn't going to be there. Plus we tend to see more complex systems, not taking anything away from the Great Lakes or Northeast though.

My main concern right now is to see how the dryslot is overcome. We are seeing precip expand now in the NE quadrant of the low's circulation. The doughnut hole of dry air over Caddo County is filling in extremely fast. We also have to take into consideration this low isn't moving much at all. It is maybe now just getting into Southern Jefferson Co, OK.

So no, I wouldn't say it is fair to say we don't know what is going to happen...within reason. However, some you'll find will be stubborn on their forecasts and just fall on the sword and use "amg supernatural cosmic waves of gas came in..." excuses. :)

This.

Looks like we have a decent cell moving up from Slaughterville to the NNW, should move into Norman/Moore here soon. Reflectivity looks like sleet, but will need to wait for ground reports to verify. If we can get any frozen precip to come down in a good amount it'll help get this change over moving by cooling the air column overhead. Right now just a light rain in Norman still.

And so goes the life of a Weather Prognosticator . . . =)
(i think that radio gary england and his miraculous thunder lizard back around '82 had a fair chance of being exactly right.)


Wow - someone ELSE who remembers Gary's "thunderlizard?" That's not even '82, Rad, that's more from his pre-KWTV days at radio station KTOK in the early seventies. He took the "lizard" with him to KWTV around '75 or thereabouts. I remember it only because he was the one met in OKC that used to scare the absolute crap out of me when I was a kid during the spring when storms rolled out, and got me scared to death of even something as simple as a storm watch. That got me to studying weather (at least a little) on my own. Have never liked the harum-scarem mets since then.

Minco is now sustained 31 mph gusting to 38 mph. Snow should start picking up in that area here over the next 30-60 minutes.

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

I wonder when Mike Morgan will follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see a map painted with apocalyptic snow totals come the 5pm newscast.

I wonder when Mike Morgan will follow. It wouldn't surprise me to see a map painted with apocalyptic snow totals come the 5pm newscast.

He'll update his forecast tomorrow

Gary England says we'd get snow around 6pm until 6 am and expects 2-6 for the west sides of the metro and 1-3 for the eastern half

David Paine CH 9 reports good run off in the creeks west of the Kingfisher area.

M. Armstrong still thinks we will see significant snow in OKC area.
He indicated that he sees recent signs that might increase our snow totals.

Mike Armstrong has consistently asserted that OKC will see significant snowfall. He was tweeting last night that he thought the water vapor and track of the system would overcome the dry slot.

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

Schweeeeeet! I think we have a good shot. I'm playing with my daughter and watching Disney Jr. now so no TV and very little internet. But honestly... you and V-man are always on point so I'll just glance at my phone every now and then for your updates and tell my 2 year old that I'm texting Mommy. Hopefully she doesn't figure out that Mommy is upstairs and me texting her is unlikely. :-) It's Oklahoma... I'm amped to be getting a view of a historic system like this. Can't wait to hear the pseudonyms that the media comes up with. Ha ha! Maybe 30 inches in NW OK! Epic.

The new NWS graphic has 5-7 inches on the north side of town and 3-4 inches on the south side of town. Big difference there.

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.


Lets hope we see record snow in OKC. I know that's not gonna happen but it would be fine by me. The lakes need the moisture. Anyone know how much moisture/snow/rain the canton area has had? Lot of people from that area in a panic over OKC taking the water lately.

Looking at the radar right now has OKC metro in a dry spot and snow/rain on all sides surrounding the metro area. Wow,this is crazy to look at.

The new NWS graphic has 5-7 inches on the north side of town and 3-4 inches on the south side of town. Big difference there.

I personally wouldn't read much into that yet. A lot of it is going to come down to where the heaviest snow band sets up one this change over is done.

The only dry pocket of air left, is sitting idle over OKC metro... Figures, LOL

Okay here we go, winds have finally switched from the NW now, finally pushing the freezing line through the metro (actually starting in the south metro).

Precip is increasing from the SE and overrunning the are from Ardmore to Norman area. This will be OKC's chance. This needs to establish itself and park over us and we will see 1"+ hour rates.

A lot of sleet reports now from Newcastle back to Chickasha. Definitely got a pocket of dryer air now over SW OK County, NE Grady, N McClaim, and NW Cleveland counties. Precip starting to move up through Cleveland county should help wipe that out.

Lets hope we see record snow in OKC. I know that's not gonna happen but it would be fine by me. The lakes need the moisture. Anyone know how much moisture/snow/rain the canton area has had? Lot of people from that area in a panic over OKC taking the water lately.

Looking at the radar right now has OKC metro in a dry spot and snow/rain on all sides surrounding the metro area. Wow,this is crazy to look at.

A lot of water will be flowing into Canton from upstream.

The only dry pocket of air left, is sitting idle over OKC metro... Figures, LOL

Haha is this an effect of the urban heat island or does that not even matter this time of the year?

Seminole County downgraded to Winter Wx Advisory through 6AM. All other advisories remain unchanged.

33 degrees in SW OKC. Just stepped out and it wasn't raining, exactly, but the air had a sort of weird consistency. Drops of water were liquid but it was like my shoes were wanting to stick for just a moment. Hard to explain. No wind to speak of (we are west of SW Council near Wheatland -none of those winds have arrived) but outside is like a cold mist.

Is it time to start doing this?
http://gifs.gifbin.com/112010/1289385527_sookie-scream.gif

...winter storm warning remains in effect until 6 am cst tuesday...

A winter storm warning remains in effect until 6 am cst tuesday.
* timing: Rain will change to snow late this afternoon...or early
this evening...across central and southwest oklahoma. The snow
will become heavy at times by mid-evening...and continue
through tonight.


* impacts: Strong and gusty northwest wind will cause blowing and
drifting snow. Visibility may be near zero at times in the
heavier snow bands. Travel will be dangerous through tuesday
morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...


Avoid travel. Be sure you can take care of yourself and your
family if you lose electrical power. Monitor weather forecasts
and information.

Snowing and 33 with strong N wind at Sara Rd and NW Expressway.

Temps in okc slowly dropping. 39-38 and now 36 in nw okc.

Let this beast eat! Moisture closing in all sides around metro OKC like the blob.

Haha is this an effect of the urban heat island or does that not even matter this time of the year?


I think this is purely coincidental. But it pretty much sums up OKC's winter.

More frozen precip reports coming in from near Dibble and now West Norman.