Hey I'm a snow lover as well...I grew up with it as a kid up north. I just know not to get my hopes up too much. :)

I just want to know if I should cancel my piano lesson tomorrow evening or not...

Also if weather.com is accurate, the temperature here has gone up in the last few minutes, not down.

Mesonet has the temps going down the last few minutes. Mesonet for OKC West was at 51 at the top of the hour and is now at 44.

Yeah, that's probably the best strategy. I like having my expectations lower and being surprised rather than being disappointed.

This is from a website called "The Lost Ogle"

http://i.imgur.com/mbA83I5.jpg

Just checking the radar. Man, this thing is going to be a complete bust for OKC. Nothing but rain. We'd be lucky to get a dusting of snow.

Well, that just sucks! >_< . . . This is from Amarillo. .


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=569404203071482

If the video doesn't work, here is a link. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=569404203071482

I predict OKC metro/Norman get bubkes for snow. Rain, big whoop, yeah we need it, but it's as exciting as watching meringue solidify. Retirement in 14 months, then I'm going to look at moving somewhere the weather threatens your life on a fairly regular basis. Oklahoma used to be that, and now we're just ...meh.

Just checking the radar. Man, this thing is going to be a complete bust for OKC. Nothing but rain. We'd be lucky to get a dusting of snow.

Given our serious drought conditions I don’t consider a good rain to be a "complete bust".

Retirement in 14 months, then I'm going to look at moving somewhere the weather threatens your life on a fairly regular basis. Oklahoma used to be that, and now we're just ...meh.
????? Is this the result of CLIMATE CHANGE?? OMG!!

As of right now. The track of the low may be favoring a slight shift south putting OKC back in. Hard to tell if the storm has anchored and started a NNE shift or NE or due E.

This is the healthiest low I have seen this winter. Very little dry air is being pulled in and it is trying its hardest to wrap up completely. This probably wont be accomplished but if it can continue to limit dry air erosion the deformation zone is going to drop buckets wherever it is dragged.

The next hour will show if the storm has shifted to its northern track or if it is still jogging east.

I'm good with it raining all day long and staying above 36 degrees. Not likely to get both, but it would sure be nice.

Trying to make sound travel decisions on limited intel. Like all of us. :)

I'm good with it raining all day long and staying above 36 degrees. Not likely to get both, but it would sure be nice.Come on Kevin, don't make me think Amanda was right about you. ;) jk lol

There is a lot of water in my backyard. I can dig it. I've decided to stop speculating and/or worrying about it. It's going to do whatever it's going to do. Contingency plans in place, really only for my band kids because we have contest in a week! I have plenty of food at home and gas in the car, I'm more concerned about my flutes! ;)

Oh I hate this weather so much. Rain/Snow/30 Degrees/on a monday = Bad attitude =(

I'm good with it raining all day long and staying above 36 degrees. Not likely to get both, but it would sure be nice.That would work for me.

There is a lot of water in my backyard. I can dig it. I've decided to stop speculating and/or worrying about it. It's going to do whatever it's going to do. Contingency plans in place, really only for my band kids because we have contest in a week! I have plenty of food at home and gas in the car, I'm more concerned about my flutes! ;)

"There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing." - Sir Rannulph Fiennes

As much as I want snow I'm happy to see the rain.

I'm hearing/seeing reports of sleet in the S. OKC/Moore area. Is that colder air region moving in earlier than we expected??

As of right now. The track of the low may be favoring a slight shift south putting OKC back in. Hard to tell if the storm has anchored and started a NNE shift or NE or due E.

This is the healthiest low I have seen this winter. Very little dry air is being pulled in and it is trying its hardest to wrap up completely. This probably wont be accomplished but if it can continue to limit dry air erosion the deformation zone is going to drop buckets wherever it is dragged.

The next hour will show if the storm has shifted to its northern track or if it is still jogging east.

I am looking at a Southern Plains radar loop.
In my unprofessional opinion the LOW seems to be taking a track that’s on the Southern end of the forecasted path.
It does not appear to have made any turn to the north yet. In fact, it still looks like its tracking just south of a due east direction.

I am looking at a Southern Plains radar loop.
In my unprofessional opinion the LOW seems to be taking a track that’s on the Southern end of the forecasted path.
It does not appear to have made any turn to the north yet. In fact, it still looks like its tracking just south of a due east direction.


So ... what are you trying to say? :wink:

Channel 4 is not predicting 4"-6" inches this afternoon for OKC. I think at this point, the stations are all just throwing darts at a board and hoping theirs is the one to stick.

I am looking at a Southern Plains radar loop.
In my unprofessional opinion the LOW seems to be taking a track that’s on the Southern end of the forecasted path.
It does not appear to have made any turn to the north yet. In fact, it still looks like its tracking just south of a due east direction.

It will be close. A little nudge north will put the dry slot over us. If we stay north of the dry slot we could still see decent snow here this afternoon.

New NAM is progging the heaviest snow SE of the earlier forecasted 'bullseye'. This moves the heaviest amounts from Clinton to Enid and even NW sides of the metro. The drop off is still very sharp, but as the low is adjusting its track, it is going to drag the north and west and south west deformation zones almost due E as opposed to the forecasted NNE.


The low is located directly SE of Childress, TX and is VERY slowly sliding ESE.

The dry air is eroding the wrap around's southern edge a little bit, so it is still a very close call on OKC, this is going to be a matter of a trace of snow in one spot and then up to 8 inches 10 miles away. Let's just say, I personally like OKC's chances if you are a snow lover.

The longer the Low keeps moving E/SE the better window of precip.

Isn't it supposed to do something in the afternoon? I heard winds would pick up and the rain would change over to snow

Isn't it supposed to do something in the afternoon? I heard winds would pick up and the rain would change over to snow

Any chance of snow will be later tonight. I'd be surprised if we see some snow before 4 p.m.

New NAM is progging the heaviest snow SE of the earlier forecasted 'bullseye'. This moves the heaviest amounts from Clinton to Enid and even NW sides of the metro. The drop off is still very sharp, but as the low is adjusting its track, it is going to drag the north and west and south west deformation zones almost due E as opposed to the forecasted NNE.


The low is located directly SE of Childress, TX and is VERY slowly sliding ESE.

The dry air is eroding the wrap around's southern edge a little bit, so it is still a very close call on OKC, this is going to be a matter of a trace of snow in one spot and then up to 8 inches 10 miles away. Let's just say, I personally like OKC's chances if you are a snow lover.

The longer the Low keeps moving E/SE the better window of precip.

I think you might be right here. The low isn't making any significant Northerly movement. Latest GFS has the Low moving almost due E from it's current position between Wichita Falls and Abilene. That slightly more southerly track could impact the Metro more than previously thought. The NAM keeps wanting to put the Low further North than it really is.

BTW...the wrap around in this particular storm is pretty impressive as well.

12Z NAM gives OUN 1-3" while it gives OKC 6-8". Painful.... Third storm in a row where we are just a tad too far SE to cash in on anything significant. We'll see, though. Definitely is dependent on just a few miles here..

12Z NAM gives OUN 1-3" while it gives OKC 6-8". Painful.... Third storm in a row where we are just a tad too far SE to cash in on anything significant. We'll see, though. Definitely is dependent on just a few miles here..

I'll take 6-8 inches of snow. I could use a day off

I'll take 6-8 inches of snow. I could use a day off

8 would be great ..

That wrap-around looks like it could completely miss OKC.

I'll take 6-8 inches of snow. I could use a day off

I live 5 minutes from work and have a jeep so no day off for me although I may have the office to myself.

I live 5 minutes from work and have a jeep so no day off for me although I may have the office to myself.

I used to have a jeep that had snow tires and drove fine, Now I have a chevy that will slide all over the place on snowy roads

That wrap-around looks like it could completely miss OKC.

If it lifts NE...yes.

OU announced it is closing at 1:30PM, for what it is worth.

OU announced it is closing at 1:30PM, for what it is worth.

Just heard that too (actually 1:00 was what I heard) and some local private schools are closing early

Isn't it supposed to do something in the afternoon? I heard winds would pick up and the rain would change over to snow

Everything I've seen says expect a changeover in the next 3-4 hours, even though it may still be above freezing.

I have a feeling rush hour is going to be really nasty. Days like this I'm glad I live in Midtown and can (and did) walk to work.

Everything I've seen says expect a changeover in the next 3-4 hours, even though it may still be above freezing.

I have a feeling rush hour is going to be really nasty. Days like this I'm glad I live in Midtown and can (and did) walk to work.

Yup. Leaving at 3 p.m. to get a head start on Broadway Extension to Edmond.

Everything I've seen says expect a changeover in the next 3-4 hours, even though it may still be above freezing.

I have a feeling rush hour is going to be really nasty. Days like this I'm glad I live in Midtown and can (and did) walk to work.


I walked to work too. It was a rough trip.

I nearly tripped over the dog on my walk down the hall-way and that tile sure was cold on my bare feet.
I don’t miss those remote oil field roads on days like today.

For the first time in many months I am watching water drain off my lot…. great news for the drought!

Is anyone else seeing what I am seeing?

The storm is actually so slow that it is drifting southwest. Looks like the center is now reforming further south between Wichita Falls and Guthrie, TX.

It's moving so slow it's going back in time?

I noticed on KOCO the storm is coming in at 3pm and is still sticking around at 3 am tommorow this could only be good :) or bad :(

it's moving so slow it's going back in time?

lol

Yawn. The only bad thing about having today off has been the nice sleeping weather outside so far. :) Anywho...

Models are mostly latched on to the more southerly track this morning. OKC is still going to be on the very edge of things though, so this can still go either way like we've all been advertising. A lot of it also depends on how much the dryslot works into the system and how quickly the wrap around starts to fall apart. Which historically for us happens pretty often. 12Z NAM keeps most of the accumulations NW of the metro area although it does allow for around 1-3" going from Downtown back NW to Kingfisher (higher as you go NW).

15Z RAP forecast keeps the dry slot a bit further south and east of much of the metro area which would be good. Still will be hard to say how much one spot will get since it isn't a solid precip shield. GFS also comes in a bit further south putting the accumulating snow back into much of the Metro. However, it very well could end up being 5" or more in Norman but nothing in Purcell.

Real time the wrap around is is alright. Big hole developing in NW OK shutting down snow up there for a couple counties. We'll have to watch the area near the low center (around SPS) to see if that continues to fill in some like it has (on the north side) the last hour or so.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gif

OSU (Stillwater campus) closing at 12:30.

Seen a radar snip from about 10mins ago that indicates the rain/snow transition line is (finally?) approaching the metro, probably crossing within the hour (roughly)...

Is anyone else seeing what I am seeing?

The storm is actually so slow that it is drifting southwest. Looks like the center is now reforming further south between Wichita Falls and Guthrie, TX.

I think it is just digging in a bit more and finally getting some more precip around the center...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/screengrab-1047.png

We are now mixing in a lot of sleet in Norman which the dualpol HCA image seems to be indicating somewhat over the OKC area...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_hca1.png

Wanted to pass this on again. NSSL is running their PING project trying to get reports on the type of precip falling. It'll help to continue improve technology to correctly indicate what is falling. It also makes it nice that you can see near real time reports near you when its happening.

Map: PING Data Display (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/)

Project Page: PING Project (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/)

You can report on the page or through Apps on your phone.
Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.wping&feature=search_result#?t=W251bGwsMSwyLDEsImVkdS5vd S5jaW1tcy53cGluZyJd
iPhone: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400?mt=8

It's moving so slow it's going back in time?

I really REALLY wish I could like this, haha.

Norman refreshed much of the warnings and advisories for the state now. Everything seems to flow pretty good.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Orange/Red - Blizzard Warning for most areas through 6AM.
Pink - Winter Storm warning through 6AM.
Purple - Winter Weather Advisory (not Travelers Advisory you stupid local media grrrr) through 6AM.

Yep, updated the warning text and they still seem optimistic for the metro to see at least somewhat significant snowfall -


A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM STILLWATER TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...TO AROUND 2 OR 3 INCHES SOUTH OF PURCELL.

Sleet starting to mix in at my location in NW Edmond. Intermittent. Not constant. Enough so that my wimpy dog won't stay outside to do his business. :p

NWS has it rain and sleet through 2:00.

The storm is taking a beating, killing itself with dry air . The center of the low is tracking directly east into Wichita Falls. Convection is trying its hardest to populate this area with precip and get the dry air out of SC OK but it is having a real tough time.

If the precip. can restablish itself from Altus to Lawton to Ardmore, there could be major problems over C OK as we head into tonight.



I'd like to see a report from Lubbock, they have been sitting underneath the end tail of the deformation zone all morning long.

Updated NWS snowfall forecast...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg

The storm is taking a beating, killing itself with dry air . The center of the low is tracking directly east into Wichita Falls. Convection is trying its hardest to populate this area with precip and get the dry air out of SC OK but it is having a real tough time.

If the precip. can restablish itself from Altus to Lawton to Ardmore, there could be major problems over C OK as we head into tonight.

Yeah this massive dry slot working in is definitely risking choking this thing off. The new development in Grady County gives hope that this might start to fill in the dry area pushing up into Canadian and Caddo counties.

Sleet starting to mix in at my location in NW Edmond. Intermittent. Not constant. Enough so that my wimpy dog won't stay outside to do his business. :p

I had to drag mine outside

Yeah this massive dry slot working in is definitely risking choking this thing off. The new development in Grady County gives hope that this might start to fill in the dry area pushing up into Canadian and Caddo counties.

Precip is on the increase per Abilene radar, this will help cut off much of the drier air being spun directly into the center over Wichita Falls.

I am thinking SW and SC OK will start filling in with precip. as we head into this afternoon. The storm is moving so slowly that the dry air does not have such an advantage as it would if the system were racing off to the NE.

mPING and Twitter reports saying precip in Northern canadian county appears to be moving to all snow now. For the Central part of the Metro area still looks like rain/sleet for awhile. El Reno mesonet is down to 32...so watch for any icing out there now.