catch22
02-16-2013, 12:03 PM
It does take time for routes to develop and the market to mature...
Future bookings look optimistic.
Future bookings look optimistic.
View Full Version : Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion 2013 catch22 02-16-2013, 12:03 PM It does take time for routes to develop and the market to mature... Future bookings look optimistic. chrisok 02-16-2013, 12:16 PM It does take time for routes to develop and the market to mature... Future bookings look optimistic. For sure. By the time CO cut the CLE route, it was regularly seeing loads >70% and there were two flights a day. venture 02-16-2013, 11:44 PM Friday's loads were just under 50% 22/50 on the inbound 21/50 on the outbound. The outbound may have been higher but the flight was delayed an hour and 45 minutes, so some passengers may have been booked on other flights to make connections. I was on the original flight to Cleveland several years ago when CO tried it the first time. There were six of us on that flight. We had all you could eat muffins on that flight since it was catered for a full load. One thing to keep in mind is the reason for the flight - fill demand by oil companies needed to go back and forth. While the loads were sub-50% from what chris is pointing out, the yields will probably make it profitable. We'll knows here in just under a year when the DOT has the figures and the financials are all public. ljbab728 02-16-2013, 11:57 PM One thing to keep in mind is the reason for the flight - fill demand by oil companies needed to go back and forth. While the loads were sub-50% from what chris is pointing out, the yields will probably make it profitable. We'll knows here in just under a year when the DOT has the figures and the financials are all public. You're right, venture. The business travelers don't book the advance purchase low price fares and, hence, are much more profitable for the airlines. adaniel 02-17-2013, 12:56 AM Devon, Chesapeake, and Gulfport Energy have been aggressively acquiring acreage in Ohio for some time. I actually know 2 landmen (chums from college) who back and forth quite a bit to that area. I think the flight capacity will fill in nicely. venture 02-19-2013, 11:15 AM I know Karen Karney (sp?) use to be on here a bunch. So if she is still trolling in the shadows, has the airport done any promotion for the Southwest to Orlando flight? Considering how poorly Florida normally does, you would think there would be a good deal of promotion taking place. Not that the airport authority does much to promote air service here. LOL Richard at Remax 02-19-2013, 02:10 PM I am taking the Orlando flight in late march. Im looking forward to it but not looking forward to getting in at 9pm on the direct flight. HangryHippo 02-19-2013, 02:11 PM Why do they advertise our service so little? Cost? Poor leadership? Snowman 02-19-2013, 07:12 PM Why do they advertise our service so little? Cost? Poor leadership? The city probably places a higher priority for any money to attempt bringing people in to spend money here, not people here spend their money in other cities. catch22 02-19-2013, 08:03 PM The city has a nonstop service marketing plan for new air service to either coast. I don't think this qualified due to not being year round service. ljbab728 02-19-2013, 10:32 PM I know Karen Karney (sp?) use to be on here a bunch. So if she is still trolling in the shadows, has the airport done any promotion for the Southwest to Orlando flight? Considering how poorly Florida normally does, you would think there would be a good deal of promotion taking place. Not that the airport authority does much to promote air service here. LOL What kind of promotions would you suggest? catch22 02-19-2013, 11:27 PM What kind of promotions would you suggest? For Cleveland, Midway, and San Francisco, the airport tapped into the nonstop marketing assistance fund to help promote the service on radio, billboards, internet, as well as on the flyokc website and on display monitors throughout the airport. United and Southwest qualified because the markets were new nonstop markets, with scheduled daily year round service. venture 02-20-2013, 08:51 AM What kind of promotions would you suggest? Well they could at least do a local press release to get it on the news. There was nothing when Orlando was announced. Just basic awareness. If they want the route to be anything more than seasonal, you need to promote the heck out of it now to show strong loads. They haven't done it and it is showing. ljbab728 02-20-2013, 11:07 PM Well they could at least do a local press release to get it on the news. There was nothing when Orlando was announced. Just basic awareness. If they want the route to be anything more than seasonal, you need to promote the heck out of it now to show strong loads. They haven't done it and it is showing. That might help but, for some reason, I just don't see the demand being other than seasonal even with more promotion. If someone wants to fly to Orlando it doesn't much effort to find the nonstop flight first. venture 02-20-2013, 11:59 PM That might help but, for some reason, I just don't see the demand being other than seasonal even with more promotion. If someone wants to fly to Orlando it doesn't much effort to find the nonstop flight first. I'm looking a bit further than just MCO. It brings in some other destinations that aren't accessible from an easier point - SJU being one. ljbab728 02-21-2013, 12:03 AM I'm looking a bit further than just MCO. It brings in some other destinations that aren't accessible from an easier point - SJU being one. Maybe, but it's not like OKC doesn't have a number of one stop options to SJU. venture 02-21-2013, 12:48 AM Maybe, but it's not like OKC doesn't have a number of one stop options to SJU. True...but it is about growing options on another carrier instead of feeding things through existing. I guess just different POVs where I'm looking it from a perspective of wanting to maximize opportunities and grow. Whereas many see OKC a mature market and just go with it. ljbab728 02-21-2013, 04:39 PM True...but it is about growing options on another carrier instead of feeding things through existing. I guess just different POVs where I'm looking it from a perspective of wanting to maximize opportunities and grow. Whereas many see OKC a mature market and just go with it. I understand what you're saying and don't neccessarily disagree although I don't quite understand about SJU through Orlando being an easier point. I was discussing it more from the way a consumer would view the situation. As long as the traveler can get a good price at the right flight time it's usually not that important what the routing is. Being a frequent flyer of a particular airline can certainly influence that decision also. damonsmuz 02-21-2013, 08:47 PM I know this isn't OK related,but had to post. This is from Wichita earlier when a United flight landed in ICT and then was taxing to the terminal. First off, why on earth would the tower put in on a taxiway covered in this much snow? Where were the plows? Why are people shoveling by hand? Im hoping the plows came out and thus the only hand shoveling was about 10-15 feet. 3373 OUman 02-21-2013, 11:07 PM This should answer your question partly: Source: 9news Wichita (http://www.9news.com/news/article/318530/339/United-flight-from-Denver-gets-stuck-in-Kansas) Once on the ground, Mid-Continent Airport officials say the pilot took a wrong turn on an unplowed taxiway and got stuck in snow. Airports can't plow every single taxiway (or even runway in some cases). But they keep designated taxiways and runways as clear as possible. It's similar to a city clearing snow routes first. Of course when you're dealing with 2 inches of snowfall an hour it's kind of difficult to do even that. damonsmuz 02-21-2013, 11:54 PM So A) What was the pilot thinking here turning on to a taxiway that he clearly could not see & B) Was the tower watching the plane. Certainly someone in the tower would have noticed the plane veering off target and said, " hey Skywest, whatcha doing" or C) how far into the snow did the plane travel? Would it have been feasible to have the pilot push back to where he just came from or do a reverse thrust backwards to get back onto better ground.?? So many questions... and D) how hard would it have been to bring a snowplow near this plane and plow some of the snow away since there was clearly a problem? venture 02-22-2013, 01:17 AM So A) What was the pilot thinking here turning on to a taxiway that he clearly could not see & B) Was the tower watching the plane. Certainly someone in the tower would have noticed the plane veering off target and said, " hey Skywest, whatcha doing" or C) how far into the snow did the plane travel? Would it have been feasible to have the pilot push back to where he just came from or do a reverse thrust backwards to get back onto better ground.?? So many questions... and D) how hard would it have been to bring a snowplow near this plane and plow some of the snow away since there was clearly a problem? A) Probably most likely. Case of snow blindness at the wrong time? Of course there are 2 up front for a reason, so failure on both. B) Tower likely isn't going to be doing consistent ground following. More than likely wasn't enough time. C) FOD is going to be a concern tossing it in reverse with some much snow and ice piled up. D) "Hey insurance company, can we take this big ass blow next to the $30 million airplane?" ;) OUman 02-22-2013, 10:02 AM ^You mean "plow". venture 02-22-2013, 10:17 AM ^You mean "plow". I really need to stop posting after hours of coding and little sleep. catch22 02-22-2013, 12:10 PM I know Karen Karney (sp?) use to be on here a bunch. So if she is still trolling in the shadows, has the airport done any promotion for the Southwest to Orlando flight? Considering how poorly Florida normally does, you would think there would be a good deal of promotion taking place. Not that the airport authority does much to promote air service here. LOL WELCOME TO WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WEBSITE (http://flyokc.com/) http://flyokc.com/NonstopFlights.aspx http://gyazo.com/84a5332233555afbb941cfe1196b351b.png?1361556618 ;) venture 02-22-2013, 12:15 PM LOL...I guess we just need to whine a bit more to get something done. Even if it is a quickly thrown together MS Paint graphic. LOL HangryHippo 02-28-2013, 02:03 PM Did the DOT ever decide on the slots at DCA that were between Southwest and US Air? catch22 02-28-2013, 02:06 PM Not yet. Should be any day now. catch22 03-03-2013, 07:11 PM In the construction project status report in the Feb 2013 airport trust meeting, the report mentions a "200 foot extension of Rwy 17L/35R." I am wondering if this is a typo, because I believe the master plan calls for a 2,200 foot extension. A 200 foot extension of a 9,800 foot runway is pointless... Under the East Side Development Environmental Study & Other AIP Projects: http://okc.gov/AgendaPub/view.aspx?cabinet=published_meetings&fileid=1817835 venture 03-03-2013, 07:20 PM It would have to be a typo...I hope. I'm also kinda shocked how long we've made it with runways under 10k feet here. We aren't very high up, but the summers get very hot that make for interesting take off rolls. catch22 03-04-2013, 08:05 AM I agree. The master plan calls for all runways to be 10k or greater. (Except the very distant in the future new west parallel runway). The two current N/S would be 12k, and 13/31 would be extended to 10k. OUman 03-04-2013, 08:15 AM ^Should the air cargo industry revitalize in the future and the extension to 12,000 feet of the parallel runways come at the perfect time, that would be very attractive to any major or up-and-coming cargo carrier to set up a hub here. Especially with our almost perfectly central geographic location. All very speculative (and mostly wishful) thinking, but who knows right? venture 03-04-2013, 10:25 AM ^Should the air cargo industry revitalize in the future and the extension to 12,000 feet of the parallel runways come at the perfect time, that would be very attractive to any major or up-and-coming cargo carrier to set up a hub here. Especially with our almost perfectly central geographic location. All very speculative (and mostly wishful) thinking, but who knows right? Probably wishful thinking. :) One of the key things with an air cargo hub is normally you need some sort of local demand as well. Geography can only go so far. There are also a ton of available former cargo hubs that a carrier can move into without having to foot the bill for a new facility. OUman 03-05-2013, 05:07 PM ^That's why I said "All very speculative (and mostly wishful) thinking..." Yes, a cargo hub requires some amount of local demand, just like a passenger hub does. Plutonic Panda 03-08-2013, 08:36 PM Certain knives were approved by the TSA. Seems strange, but I'm sure they know what they're doing. ;) OKC Airport Warns Against Knives Following TSA Announcement - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports | (http://www.news9.com/story/21560143/okc-airport-warns-against-knives-following-tsa-announcement) Edit: Come to think of it, I'm not sure if this is the right thread for this or not. catch22 03-09-2013, 08:44 AM Smaller than 2.36 inches only. venture 03-12-2013, 11:55 PM Southwest will be cutting back to only 4 daily flights to Dallas Love this fall. Not sure if this is just a seasonal reduction. A lot of speculation out there right now that once the Wright Amendment passes, this route will be cut completely. It is currently the weakest performing O&D route of Dallas for Southwest. It is also now one of the shortest in the entire network, something they've been trimming back on. catch22 03-13-2013, 07:00 AM Looks like that cut actually begins in June. venture 03-13-2013, 10:37 AM Looks like that cut actually begins in June. That it does. I was looking too far out. Looking at the schedule on June 2nd... BWI - 1 MDW - 2 DAL - 4 DEN - 3 HOU - 4 MCI - 2 (Already announced ending in August) LAS - 2 PHX - 2 STL - 2 So a total of 22 daily flights soon to drop to 20. OUman 03-13-2013, 10:43 AM ^Hmm, O&D in terms of yields or just passengers? I actually thought most of the DAL traffic was connecting anyway, so once the Wright Amendment goes out of effect wouldn't it make more sense to have people connecting at DAL to even more airports? Especially with the new 25 gate terminal opening down there next year (which of course, happens to be in conjunction with the WA going out of effect). Of course if it were completely shut down, that would give AA the monopoly between the Metro and the Metroplex. We still have a fair amount of people flying between both areas. As for the shortest Southwest route, I think at the moment it is between AUS and HOU (an average of just 30 minutes each way from takeoff to landing). venture 03-13-2013, 10:57 AM ^Hmm, actually once the Wright Amendment goes out of effect wouldn't it make more sense to have people connecting at DAL to even more airports? Especially with the new 25 gate terminal opening down there next year (which of course, happens to be in conjunction with the WA going out of effect). Of course if it were completely shut down, that would give AA the monopoly between the Metro and the Metroplex. We still have a fair amount of people flying between both areas. Keep in mind that WN will only have 16 of the 20 (not 25) gates in that terminal. So based on their current gate utilization at DAL (9.9 flts/day) that would put them around 160 flights total. That would give them room to add quite a bit of direct flights to other cities. Right now they are at 19 cities and I wouldn't be shocked if it jumps to over 40 destinations. So it then comes down to where do you get the aircraft and also is it better to pull down some of the current DAL routes to allow for better gate space. For me, I would think that OKC-DAL would remain in some fashion to keep connecting traffic through DAL. However, WN will always look at local O&D first before connecting traffic. OKC-DAL on WN is horrible right now when it comes to O&D. Based on the Q3 DOT stats, OKC-Dallas (both airports) is at 237 pax per day...or ~118 each way. WN controls 56% of the local market or only 66 passengers per day. Out of what will be 572 seats a day (one way), that's only 11.5%. That's not good at all. In fact a recent post on A.net compared all the WN DAL markets and OKC is the worst performing one when it comes to O&D. I think the elimination of MDW-IND was a warning sign that the very short business hops are no longer safe. While it seems unthinkable WN would cut the flights to DAL, its not longer out of the realm of possibility. Video Expert 03-13-2013, 11:16 AM ...OKC-DAL on WN is horrible right now when it comes to O&D. Based on the Q3 DOT stats, OKC-Dallas (both airports) is at 237 pax per day...or ~118 each way. WN controls 56% of the local market or only 66 passengers per day. Out of what will be 572 seats a day (one way), that's only 11.5%. That's not good at all. In fact a recent post on A.net compared all the WN DAL markets and OKC is the worst performing one when it comes to O&D.... Do you know why or could you speculate as to the reason(s) you believe the O&D from OKC to DAL on WN is so poor? Could it be that OKC and Dallas are so close and many people choose to drive instead? Your thoughts?? venture 03-13-2013, 12:09 PM Do you know why or could you speculate as to the reason(s) you believe the O&D from OKC to DAL on WN is so poor? Could it be that OKC and Dallas are so close and many people choose to drive instead? Your thoughts?? More than likely it is the short drive. The average fare on the market is around $137 one way, so that can come into play as well. American is now up to 9 daily flights, but back last year when they were at 7 daily MD-80s they were still only getting about 52 passengers a day. That's only 5.3% of seats per day that they offered. So it definitely has to be the drive and people not wanting to deal with the airport. I'm sure if we had something like Lakeshore Express (airline out of MI) that operates from a corporate hangar because they are a charter, and therefore avoids TSA, and allowed people to go from car to aircraft in 10 to 15 minutes...the numbers to Dallas would probably be huge. Oh for giggles say if you have a Dash 8 Q400 operator decide they wanted to run a Norman (or Wiley Post) flight to a Dallas area airport and avoid the "long" path to the gate at Will Rogers, you'd probably see very strong O&D numbers then. At that point you are competing against the car which is going to be 2.5 to 3 hour drive. The flight is already going to be about an hour from gate to gate, so you have to reduce the time spent for the remaining 1.5 to 2 hours. Snowman 03-13-2013, 12:36 PM Between flexibility of schedule, not having to arrange transport to the airport, likely needing a car after arrival and only a marginal amount of time difference. I am surprised the number is as high as 5%. catch22 03-13-2013, 02:32 PM http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/February%20Enplanement.pdf Year is starting off slow. OUman 03-13-2013, 10:52 PM I remember someone saying a while back (I think it was skywest or someone-in one of the past air service discussion threads) that our state is not really an air-travel state. Most people here take short in-state trips or one-day drives to the neighbouring states. ljbab728 03-13-2013, 11:13 PM I remember someone saying a while back (I think it was skywest or someone-in one of the past air service discussion threads) that our state is not really an air-travel state. Most people here take short in-state trips or one-day drives to the neighbouring states. As someone who's been involved in the travel business for about 25 years, that's certainly news to me. Celebrator 03-14-2013, 12:55 AM How are the loads on the WN flights to MCO? Giving the route a try in two weeks. So nice to be able to get down there n/s...cuts the travel time down so much. no1cub17 03-14-2013, 02:01 PM As someone who's been involved in the travel business for about 25 years, that's certainly news to me. I find that rather hard to believe too, just given our geographic location it's almost a requirement to fly anywhere, particularly if you have any sort of time crunch. Even Chicago is a freaking 11-12 hour drive away. venture 03-14-2013, 02:35 PM How are the loads on the WN flights to MCO? Giving the route a try in two weeks. So nice to be able to get down there n/s...cuts the travel time down so much. I've looked from time to time and it really varies. The evening inbounds seem to be really strong, but some of the outbound flights have been pretty weak. Hopefully it at least does well enough that they bring it back next year. I find that rather hard to believe too, just given our geographic location it's almost a requirement to fly anywhere, particularly if you have any sort of time crunch. Even Chicago is a freaking 11-12 hour drive away. I would almost think that we are talking two different customer sets. Those that are more doing the "staycation" in Oklahoma are likely those that can't afford to travel far. OUman 03-14-2013, 06:46 PM I find that rather hard to believe too, just given our geographic location it's almost a requirement to fly anywhere, particularly if you have any sort of time crunch. Even Chicago is a freaking 11-12 hour drive away. I said short in-state trips or one day drives to the neighbouring states. Who's talking about Chicago? And I didn't say it, it was someone else who did. Just saying. ;). ljbab728 03-14-2013, 11:14 PM I said short in-state trips or one day drives to the neighbouring states. Who's talking about Chicago? And I didn't say it, it was someone else who did. Just saying. ;). Sounds like maybe you should be taking that person's opinions with a grain of salt. LOL OUman 03-15-2013, 10:16 AM ^I'll agree with that. catch22 03-15-2013, 11:30 AM I'll stop providing my opinion then... venture 03-15-2013, 11:54 AM I'll stop providing my opinion then... Don't stop because people find it easy to just throw others under the bus on an internet forum instead of taking responsibility for their own comments. Not enough industry insiders on this board as is. HangryHippo 03-15-2013, 11:56 AM Don't stop because people find it easy to just throw others under the bus on an internet forum instead of taking responsibility for their own comments. Not enough industry insiders on this board as is. +1. Forget the haters. I value your opinions and contributions and don't want to see your posts stop. OUman 03-15-2013, 03:50 PM For the record, just to prevent any misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to catch22 or throwing anyone under the bus. I just come here to discuss things because I like Oklahoma City and aviation in general. We all can tend to agree/disagree, which is what is great about a discussion forum, but one or the other doesn't mean we are "haters" or intolerant of other people's opinions. I actually look forward to posts from the aviation professionals here. :) Plutonic Panda 03-15-2013, 05:46 PM For me, I do agree that people in Oklahoma drive more than they fly. Dallas, Wichita, Austin, Amarillo, Little Rock, Kansas City, even Houston, New Orleans, Galveston. My dad owns a car rental agency and dealership in Moore and you'll be surprised the number of people who drive cross country. If I had to guess without looking at actual number, I'd say whoever suggested people drive more than they fly is right. Edit: If Catch 22 was behind people driving more than flying, than that really makes me more confident about that notion, because he seems to really know his stuff. :) catch22 03-15-2013, 08:08 PM For the record, just to prevent any misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to catch22 or throwing anyone under the bus. I just come here to discuss things because I like Oklahoma City and aviation in general. We all can tend to agree/disagree, which is what is great about a discussion forum, but one or the other doesn't mean we are "haters" or intolerant of other people's opinions. I actually look forward to posts from the aviation professionals here. :) Disagreement is fine, I love a good argument. But saying my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt is fairly insulting for one who "lives" for this industry. I wake up at 3am every day for this industry. I have worked 41 of the past 42 days for this industry. And, ljbab, I still stand by my statement made prior about Oklahoma having a large subset of people who do not fly. Of course you would be unfamiliar with them, because they never contact you or show up on the "Radar". The people who do fly contact you, the people who don't never will. I don't have any set of statistics to prove this, because it is impossible to prove because the people who do not fly...simply do not show up in any statistic. But from my observations as a citizen over the years with friends and family across the state, I can say the amount of people who do not fly is quite striking. I have two sets of unrelated friends, who drive to LA every year for vacation respectively. I asked each why they don't fly, the answer was it was "cheaper to drive." My brother's wife's parents, they make a considerable amount of money each year. They go to the lake for vacation. I run into people all of the time in there 20s from around here, who always mention to me when they find out what I do, "That's so cool, I have never been on an airplane before...what's it like?". My ex-girlfriend who I dated last year, had never flown on an airplane before she had met me. Her family wasn't poor, neither are a lot of the people I am referencing in this post. I have a broad range of friends and acquaintances that I can confidently say is a decent cross-section of the OKC metro population. I can also confidently say, there is a larger than average subset of the OKC metro population who do not fly for vacation. Or do not fly often at all. OKC has a 1.3 million metro, yet we are surpassed by many smaller metros on passenger totals. We have a booming economy, lots of extra expendable money in the pockets of the metro, yet travel is still flat. The amount of new shiny Ford F250 super crew pickups with a nice shiny 25 foot boat on a trailer, seems to be increasing. The creative class tends to travel more, the more educated a population is, the more the population travels. OUman 03-15-2013, 08:57 PM ^Honestly speaking, I didn't remember that it was you who said that (I actually couldn't remember because it had been so long). I always check my posts before posting them since a forum environment is different from one-on-one talking. I do apologize, it wasn't meant to be insulting, it was just a plain reply. I will be more mindful in such situations. You make some good points above, I too have always thought our passenger traffic growth rate for a 1.3 million metro seems to be on the slow side, but being just an "observer" as an enthusiast, I thought that was only me and my lack of knowledge or something. I think the "relative" low gas prices also lend to more of the lake trips like you mentioned. |