Yup, The GFS is definitely deciding on a track. If we can get this moisture further north more quickly - the GFS could actually be legitimate with the locally 8" totals it throws over central and south east OK.

Moisture slowly trickling in from the south east. I think the GFS is still underestimating how much moisture the system will have to work with when it exits the Rockies over Oklahoma. Really looking forward to today's runs!

I know this happened with the Christmas system as well, so I'm not getting too excited yet, but the GFS seems really hooked on a very large snow system coming our way beginning on New Year's Day. This run shows a band of 10-12+ inch totals running all the way from west of Amarillo to Tulsa.

The GFS runs do seem to fluctuate a lot on the forecasted snow depth for this time, as would be expected, but it's keeping a storm there. We'll just have to wait and see as we get closer I guess.

I am pretty confident that if the Christmas storm lays down any form of a snow pack, the New years storm will feed off of it nicely.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ029&warncounty=OKC027&firewxzone=OKZ029&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2012
...WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF A VERY LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS BUT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS
FROM THE COMPUTER MODELS. SOME MODELS CONTINUE THE TRACK OF HEAVIEST
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...WHILE OTHERS TAKE IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. CONTINUING WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH...THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AMOUNTS
COULD AVERAGE THREE TO SIX INCHES.

WITH THE VARIATION IN FORECAST TRACKS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...EVERYONE
ACROSS THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA AND THOSE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO REFINED FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK...HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE AND
PREPARE FOR WEATHER-RELATED DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS.

Whiteout Conditions Possible In Christmas Day Snow Storm - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports | (http://www.news9.com/story/20411252/news-9-weather-team-christmas-day-snow-update)

NAM is lining up with GFS (which just came in) on the track. So that, like I said earlier, seems to be pretty well locked in now.

Snowfall amounts are really going to be a crap shoot. I think a general 1-3" is a safe bet. Both indicate that there will be pockets of 3-6 with some higher amounts. It is just going to matter which areas get the best lift.

Winds will blow things around a bit, but nothing that I would classify as terrible. However, that's the Yankee in me too. ;)

NAM is lining up with GFS (which just came in) on the track. So that, like I said earlier, seems to be pretty well locked in now.

Snowfall amounts are really going to be a crap shoot. I think a general 1-3" is a safe bet. Both indicate that there will be pockets of 3-6 with some higher amounts. It is just going to matter which areas get the best lift.

Winds will blow things around a bit, but nothing that I would classify as terrible. However, that's the Yankee in me too. ;)

Seems like a manageable commute for those of us heading back to Workville on the 26th

Here are a few links to Earl Baker's site for a more zoomed in look at the snowfall forecasts.

These will update every 12 hours.
NAM: 12Z/00Z - Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)
18Z / 06Z - Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)

GFS: 12Z/00Z - Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)
18Z/06Z - Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=TLX)

NAM is up a bunch with moisture content this morning. It keeps most of the heavy snow north of I-40. It is showing a trace or less south of an Altus - Lawton-Ada-Muskogee line. Then a very tight gradient of snowfall over very short distances. Max snowfall between 12-18" from the north sides of the OKC metro through NC and NE OK. Some areas are shown could get up to 24".

Not really buying this one and think it is overdoing amounts a bit (50 degree ground temps will melt some of it until snowfall rates overtake melting rates). It should also be noted that in a tight gradient situation, the track going just 50-75 miles further south puts that huge snowfall over Central OK. Just the same...50-75 miles further north can keep us high and dry.

GFS is starting to process now, should have the numbers in 45-60 minutes.

Here is where Norman's head is at...which is pretty close to what I've been describing.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012


.AVIATION...
23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
EXPECTED. AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY MAKE A
RUN AT KPNC BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST AND
HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AS THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS MOST
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MOST MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON GEOGRAPHY WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL IMPACT
REGION...BUT VARY GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
LATEST AND GREATEST FROM GFS AND WRF /06Z RUNS/ WENT VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WRF AN EXTREME OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THE
HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
FASTER INTENSIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. ALL MODELS INTENSIFY
UPPER LOW AND HOW FAST THIS OCCURS WILL BE A POINT OF CONTENTION
WHEN TALKING ABOUT WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE. WE CONSIDERED
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BUT WITH SUCH VARIATIONS IN
LATEST MODEL DATA AND COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WE WILL PASS
ON TO DAY SHIFT AND LET 12Z MODEL SUITE TRY TO SHOW SOME
CONSISTENCY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LIKE...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT EITHER A MINIMAL ADVISORY EVENT OR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. WE FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOW-END WINTER STORM BUT 06Z RUN OF TWO MODELS
CREATES DOUBT.


ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY BUT IS PROGD TO BE WEAKER AND
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AGAIN...MODEL
CONSISTENCY/TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

NWS Norman's first crack at an official snowfall prediction. Base on this I could see them do a Winter Storm Watch from OKC to the SE, though it could be handled well with a Snow Advisory. Winter Wx Adv for the rest expect for the 1-inchers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image3.jpg

You should go on Facebook and see what Aaron Tuttle's doing. Doomsdayer. He's talking power outages, blizzard conditions with 50mph winds, and snow that could stick around for days, if not a week.

I swear, that kind of behavior should be banned. It's one thing to be alert; it's another to try and create panic.

You should go on Facebook and see what Aaron Tuttle's doing. Doomsdayer. He's talking power outages, blizzard conditions with 50mph winds, and snow that could stick around for days, if not a week.

I swear, that kind of behavior should be banned. It's one thing to be alert; it's another to try and create panic.

I absolutely agree. I'm almost certain we'll see people panic and empty the bread and milk aisles today and tomorrow. However,to his credit, I've seen similar posts from other meteorologists, including Jed Castles and David Payne. I guess models are showing a bullseye of up to 20 inches in OK. AT said he didn't buy it, so he's saying divide that by two to go with 8-12".

You should go on Facebook and see what Aaron Tuttle's doing. Doomsdayer. He's talking power outages, blizzard conditions with 50mph winds, and snow that could stick around for days, if not a week.

I swear, that kind of behavior should be banned. It's one thing to be alert; it's another to try and create panic.

At least the Discovery Channel hasn't given him his own show yet.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ029&warncounty=OKC027&firewxzone=OKZ029&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch)
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM CST ON
TUESDAY AND BE HEAVIEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
OCCUR AS WELL DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE -10 TO +10 RANGE ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE
HYPOTHERMIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL.

You should go on Facebook and see what Aaron Tuttle's doing. Doomsdayer. He's talking power outages, blizzard conditions with 50mph winds, and snow that could stick around for days, if not a week.

I swear, that kind of behavior should be banned. It's one thing to be alert; it's another to try and create panic.

Yeah and he calls for half an inch of ice. No no no no no NO no!

Euro snowfall map for the nation:

http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd439/WeatherNut27/Winter%202012-13/Euro47.jpg

The moisture is coming in at just about the perfect amounts to dump the most precip. possible without preventing us from going to pure rain due to staying above freezing early on.



I do not envy the forecasters right now, this is going to be a storm of a 50-75 mile swath of totally different weather compared to its surroundings. The tracks are still varying through southern OK to northern OK.

The doomsday casting is definitely going to go full force for some forecasters for the next 36 hours. Then we will know what is actually going to happen as the Low shows its angry face over the pan handles.



This will most likely be a very major storm for whoever finds themselves in the path of the main precip. core. I am considering convincing my family to have 'Christmas' on Monday night as opposed to Tuesday morning. Will let the models run a few more times tonight and in the morning before making the call.

Seems like a manageable commute for those of us heading back to Workville on the 26th

Especially since I live 5 minutes from work and have a jeep.

Why did I sign up to work the holidays.....*sigh*

Love me a de-icing bucket. :(

Why did I sign up to work the holidays.....*sigh*

Love me a de-icing bucket. :(

Hey...your work and contribution is completely appreciated out there. :) Even if you do work for the competition. :-P LOL

Anon - I'm with you on this. When you look at the NAM you just get those chills of what this could be if everything comes in at the perfect time. If the NAM track was about 50 miles further south we *might* be talking Blizzard Watch right now...but I still think it is over blowing precip amounts (below). GFS at 18Z I really like. It is a good general swatch of 3 to 6 inches over much of Oklahoma with some pockets of 6-7". That is a good manageable snow.

That NAM though...eesh. LOL

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/12/23/18/NAM_221_2012122318_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

I'm thinking it is a good thing I end up having a December only thread this time around. LOL I think the thread views have jumped about 3000 hits in the last day. :-X

Hey...your work and contribution is completely appreciated out there. :) Even if you do work for the competition. :-P LOL

Tell SMI/J that. :)

What time is it gonna hit? I gotta brisket to smoke EARLY Xmas morn :D

Local station said 6am..freezing precip and quickly changing over to snow. But that could change...

David Payne posted this crazy model to twitter.

http://a.yfrog.com/img644/4156/1x4ap.jpg

Big bullsey on OKC with 20" of snow... I doubt he actually trusts this model and he's just pulling our leg.

That would be the NAM. It has been really high in snow totals. If it verifies it does illustrate what I meant that 50 miles can make a huge difference. GFS is staying the course with the 3-6".

NAM 00Z http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/snow_nam_00Z_dec24.png GFS 00Z http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/snow_gfs_00Z_dec24.png

So 2 " or maybe around a foot and a half, lol! I'm getting my snow shovel ready!

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OKLAHOMA:

Areas affected: Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Comanche; Custer; Dewey; Grady; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Wa****a

Instructions: Avoid travel. Be sure you can take care of yourself and your family if you lose electrical power. Monitor weather forecasts and information.

Message summary: ...winter storm warning in effect from midnight tonight to midnight cst tuesday night...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter storm warning for sleet...snow and blowing snow which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight cst tuesday night. The winter storm warning replaces the winter storm watch.
* timing: snow will develop between midnight and 9 am cst on tuesday and be heaviest during the daytime hours before tapering to flurries tuesday evening. Areas from lawton to oklahoma city may see an extended period of sleet before the sleet changes to snow.
* main impact: snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with higher amounts possible. Considerable drifting of snow is also likely...especially on west to east roads.
* other impacts: considerable blowing snow from north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph and possible near whiteout conditions will make travel very hazardous. Wind chill values will be in the -10 to +10 range allowing for possible hypothermia.

Since the site's formatting tools are broke right now, will post the images in separate posts. First the discussion on things...As posted already, the Winter Storm Warning has been put out for roughly the Central third of the state. Exact placement of the higher snow totals is still a bit off from model to model, but even the recently conservative GFS has amounts over 12" in some places. I wouldn't get to fixed on the exact placement of the totals on the maps I'm posting next, as things can vary 50-75 miles any direction.There is roughly some agreement that the 6" plus line is will run roughly from Clinton to Pauls Valley to Shawnee and north. GFS has an area of 6 to 14" spread out through this area, whereas NAM (which has been aggressive) is showing amounts could get in the 18-20" range in some locations. I still think that is a tad overblown, but still something to keep in mind if we get any thunderstorm development to increase snowfall rates.Christmas Day definitely looks like one if you don't have to travel, don't. Wednesday is going to probably still be a bit ugly for travel, but hopefully the plow trucks are doing their thing correctly and can get the main roads cleaned out.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/snow_nam_06Z_dec24.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/snow_gfs_06Z_dec24.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/snow_gfs_06Z_dec24.png

Also wanted to point out another aspect of this storm. SPC has put out a moderate risk tomorrow near the Gulf Coast. This is going to be quite a significant storm in all facets of weather, so hopefully everyone stays weather aware and safe.

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

What's your best guess for the Norman area/central OK?

What's your best guess for the Norman area/central OK?

I think 6 to 10 is reasonable for much of the area. If we get any sleet early the numbers may go down, if we get any thunderstorms (thundersnow) it may go up.

Just curious, why does NAM say we're going to have really high snow amounts and you say is isn't true? Sorry if you already explained and I missed it.

New NAM is in and is extended further south with the heaviest accumulation. It now has the 6+ line well south of Pauls Valley now.

Venture, they need your weather skills abroad. Starting with the UK Daily Mail.

Massive winter storm from Dallas to Maine threatens Christmas travel for 87 million people... as HALF of U.S. is set for a white Christmas (and the snow will continue for days after)
First white Christmas in Oklahoma City since 1914 is predicted


Read more: US Weather: White Christmas for nearly half of Americans as storm rumbles across nation | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2252180/US-Weather-White-Christmas-nearly-half-Americans-storm-rumbles-nation.html#ixzz2FzZQP8Pc)
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Really, has it been as long as 1914 when Christmas became white on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City?

Venture, they need your weather skills abroad. Starting with the UK Daily Mail. Hey, the Daily Mail is almost as reliable as Weekly World News and The National Enquirer...

Really, has it been as long as 1914 when Christmas became white on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City?

Now that I consider it, I'm not sure what the Bing Crosby/Irving Berlin definition of a White Christmas is, but I seem to recall something about 1 inch or greater of snow on the ground Christmas morning being the "official" criteria for declaring a white Christmas.

Honestly, I don't remember how the 2009 event started. I drove to work in the rain thinking it was going to be a big bust, and drove home an hour and a half later in god-awful conditions.

Ugh. So you guys are telling me I won't be able to drive back to OKC as I had planned tomorrow.

Will you guys keep me updated on any power outages tomorrow?

Just curious, why does NAM say we're going to have really high snow amounts and you say is isn't true? Sorry if you already explained and I missed it.

NAM in my experience tends to over estimate convective potential quite a bit. This can cause snowfall rates to be calculated higher. Of course you can just take it as a worst case scenario.

It is also one of the most linked-to sites by Drudge. Hyperbole abounds there.
This time with the weather story the Daily Mail was just running a collection of U.S. wire stories. The story about the first White Christmas since 1914 is running all over the place, it's for any media who subscribes to Accuweather, in the original story she mentions the 2009 blizzard but is going by actual snowfall on Christmas Day. Rare Christmas Snow for Dallas, OKC, Little Rock (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-christmas-snow-for-dallas/3088030)

I hate for this one day event to happen on Christmas. The snow is fine but something that ruins Christmas travel would be a bummer for so many, especially the children.

Spending some more time looking at the models. Both nam and gfs are showing a decent chance at sleet/freezing tomorrow before going all snow. It is going to be very borderline, but wanted to also mention that.

It is also one of the most linked-to sites by Drudge. Hyperbole abounds there.

Imagine that lol

NAM in my experience tends to over estimate convective potential quite a bit. This can cause snowfall rates to be calculated higher. Of course you can just take it as a worst case scenario.Yeah, so it probably be a lesser version of the 2009 Blizzard I guess.

New nam is in and keeps some pretty big snow totals in parts of central ok, but a little further south. Still around 6 to 10 inches based on the formula used by twisterdata.

Now that I consider it, I'm not sure what the Bing Crosby/Irving Berlin definition of a White Christmas is, but I seem to recall something about 1 inch or greater of snow on the ground Christmas morning being the "official" criteria for declaring a white Christmas.

Honestly, I don't remember how the 2009 event started. I drove to work in the rain thinking it was going to be a big bust, and drove home an hour and a half later in god-awful conditions.

This was taken at 4:45 pm on 12/24/2009. As you can see, drifts were well above 30", and it hadn't stopped snowing quite yet. Certainly meets my criteria for a white Christmas, as 0 snow had melted by Christmas morning.

http://i.imgur.com/BhQe1.jpg?1 (http://imgur.com/BhQe1)

We've got dinner with family, tonight. The plan is to also have dinner at another family member's place, Christmas afternoon. Given the forecast, I've already asked husband to set out the stuff for crock pot ham/beans because we may end up eating that along with the green casserole we're planning to take to Christmas dinner (and cornbread).

White Christmas definition varies. Some require 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Another way is that you must have 1 inch of snow accumulation on Christmas Day.

GFS 18Z run is keeping things a bit more tame. I'm not really going to invest much in it right now. At this point any little variations are pretty pointless.

GFS 18Z run is keeping things a bit more tame. I'm not really going to invest much in it right now. At this point any little variations are pretty pointless.

Hey man, don't be dry-slottin' my White Christmas. lol.

Starting to see the first signs of precip enter into SW OK. This is really high up so it isn't reach the ground.

This is one of the newer DualPol products for radars. DS = Dry Snow.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/radar/ktlx_hca1.png

Venture my old friend! do we have a live chat tonight/tomorrow?

Venture my old friend! do we have a live chat tonight/tomorrow?

Do you guys want me to get one going? I can't promise I will be in it all the time, but I can get one cranking to at least track the tweets and such.

Yeah that would be great.

Seeing a lot of talk about the models showing the heavier snow going south.