Looking pretty impressive from SW OK county.

Some storms have been developing to the north, too, from northern Payne County southwest to southern Kingfisher and northern Canadian Counties.

Things starting to calm down for the most part.

Severe Storm #1 - Canadian County - Has been decreasing pretty fast. Should be gone in the next hour.

Severe Storm #2 - Lincoln County - Is still pretty strong and move ESE. Strong winds and hail main threats still.

Additional storms are developing from Noble County northeast to Osage County...also from Nowata down SW along I-44 to the Lincoln County storm. Right now they aren't getting too intense, but some may drop some decent hail this evening.

One thing to watch for tomorrow is the number of outflow boundaries these storms are leaving behind. It could make things interesting tomorrow with a very dynamic surface setup which could increase the chance for lower level rotation with the storms. Also at the very least it will create a more complex scenario on where storms will form tomorrow. Stay turned.

So my comments about May going out like a lion...We have two significant days coming up. I'll go more in depth after the 00Z models are ran, but this is what SPC has.

SLIGHT RISK TODAY - Most of Oklahoma...best chance in Central sections.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS/SWRN MO SWD INTO N
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES PORTION OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT
STEADILY EWD THIS PERIOD...REACHING A POSITION OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY 30/12Z. MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...A MUCH MORE
COMPACT UPPER FEATURE INITIALLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE ESEWD INTO MT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE N
CENTRAL/NERN U.S. TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION INTO THE KS/OK VICINITY. THIS FRONT -- AND A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK/TX DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL BE FOCI
FOR STRONG/SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

...SRN KS/OK/N TX AND VICINITY...
DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH EWD
ADVECTION OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WIDESPREAD...AND
LIKELY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PARTS OF OK AND VICINITY. WHILE THIS
WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED UPPER FEATURE.
STILL...LIKELY PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION AND A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN OK/WRN TX SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- MOST
LIKELY INITIALLY INVOF THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED INVOF
SWRN KS/NWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...UPSCALE
GROWTH IS EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOWS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY.
RESULTING COMPLEX STORMS STRUCTURES ARE ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT LARGE ROTATING STORMS AT
TIMES.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS WHICH CAN
ORGANIZE AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IF STORMS CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL BOWING
MCS/S. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE -- MOST
LIKELY INVOF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN OK VICINITY.

MORE ISOLATED CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX WITH
SOME ATTENDANT SEVER POTENTIAL...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

MODERATE RISK for WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND (DERECHO) EVENT POSSIBLE. GREATEST RISK FROM NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE OKC METRO AREA. This could be a day when we actually see a PDS Severe box


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND PORTIONS
OF OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
WHILE A DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECT A QUICK
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/KS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES/HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR...CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN KS AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION /3000+ J PER KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK INTO
SOUTHERN KS/...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF TSTM INITIATION. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY INITIALLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND/OR BY CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK. A SUBSEQUENT
UPSCALE GROWTH/EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
MCS/S SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...AND OTHERWISE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS OK/ADJACENT NORTH TX/EVENTUALLY AR WITH DAMAGING WINDS
/POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD/ A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
EVENING/PERHAPS OVERNIGHT.

Due to the significant nature of the severe weather chances today and tomorrow, the chat room is being brought online (finally). Previous attendees have been sent email invites already. If you are not on the list, please send me a PM here on the forum with your email and I'll get you added. This will help prevent you from being moderated.

Direct link: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today but that the risk for tornadoes goes way up tomorrow.

This is when I would like to see something similar to the Weather channels TOR:CON index on our local TV stations.

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today...

If you want accurate weather information (not hype), don't listen to them. They're both watching the ratings more than the radar. David Payne is the worst of the two. He's an attention ho.

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today but that the risk for tornadoes goes way up tomorrow.

This is when I would like to see something similar to the Weather channels TOR:CON index on our local TV stations.

I'm working on something similar with the weather program I'm putting together. It is just a matter of our to make it effect. TOR:CON is an interesting concept, but it definitely needs to be localized. The issue then comes down to model data for it since morning soundings really can't guarantee the atmosphere will be the same later on. However, we can have that discussion another day. I'll probably have a minor alpha build ready in the next couple of weeks (time permitting) to provide some basic information. I'll be posting a discussion here shortly on the outlook for today.

I'm working on something similar with the weather program I'm putting together. It is just a matter of our to make it effect. TOR:CON is an interesting concept, but it definitely needs to be localized. The issue then comes down to model data for it since morning soundings really can't guarantee the atmosphere will be the same later on. However, we can have that discussion another day. I'll probably have a minor alpha build ready in the next couple of weeks (time permitting) to provide some basic information. I'll be posting a discussion here shortly on the outlook for today.

That would be a good deal.
Maybe you could sell your model to the TV stations?:wink:

If you want accurate weather information (not hype), don't listen to them. They're both watching the ratings more than the radar. David Payne is the worst of the two. He's an attention ho.

Leading up to a sever WX threat I generally try to watch 4, 5 and 9. Each, at times, can deliver different information. Yes some are worse about going way out on a limb but I like to know what the worst case scenario is so that I’m less likely to be caught off guard.

I will give CH 4 credit for issuing a warning for the most recent Norman tornadoe, minutes before the national weather service.

The city of Norman did not sound their sirens until 3 minutes after the national weather service sounded their sirens. There were 20 injuries in Norman.
For too many people, the TV warnings were their only warnings until the tornado passed.

The city of Norman has got to devise a much better warning system.

So Weds is looking interesting, eh? * sigh * At least the kiddos are home from school this time of year :)

Significant two days of severe weather expect across the area today and tomorrow. Tomorrow is definitely the higher risk day (SPC continuing Moderate Risk / 45% hatched area) for the potential for one or more MCS complexes. A lot of people like to focus on the tornado risk but the moderate risk is NOT for tornadoes. In situations like these what we typically see is 3-4 supercells pop up and some normally are tornadic initially and also have very large hail. Then they start to merge together and begin to form a large scale bow complex that turns outflow dominant and races ESE/SE. The main risk that turns to a derecho event with widespread 65-80 mph winds with isolated pockets of 80-100+ mph winds where embedded circulations on the leading edge can enhance things. Hail is usually not much of an issue, but can still occur. So keep in mind that yes tornadoes are bad...but a 75-150 mile wall of a destructive wind is going to be more noticeable. Like every other situation though, everything needs to come to together or it may not happen as advertised - which no one really complains about.

For Today...Slight risk covers all of the state except the panhandle.

We are also seeing instabilities climb into the very high category across Western OK. CIN is still around keeping a lid on things however. There are a view clouds around, but nothing signifying any immediate development. Instability is expected to increase into the extreme category today...CAPE 4000+ j/kg. So when a storm is ready to go, it is going to go severe very fast. Winds today aren't the greatest when it comes to tornado production. The SPC is thinking mostly Northern OK which is probably more tied to the better chance for storm development. However, I'm seeing more backing to the winds from I-40 and to the south. Essentially it'll probably come down to storms that can get well established mesocyclones. HRRR forecast SRH with storms that form is going to be around 200-400 m^2/s^2...this generally would signify a good shot at rotating storms.

HRRR is forecasting initiation in Western OK from Major County down into the Altus/Frederick areas by 3-4PM. It then continues explosive development across areas west of I-35 almost border to border (but not a solid line). Right now it appears that it wants to form a complex with the northern storms and push them across the Metro area and into NE OK through the early evening hours. It does taper the SW OK storms off pretty quickly - we'll see if that happens. There is a lot of juice out there.

Another thing to keep in mind for today is any left over outflow boundaries from yesterday could enhance dynamics in localized areas which could increase storms development, hail size, and tornado potential.

Will cover tomorrow more later.

Tomorrow's forecast reminds me of that storm that came through the NW side of town last August out of nowhere. It knocked power out and crumbled a storefront around the corner from the neighborhood, trapping a man inside what was to be a liquor store within walking distance of my home. It was like watching a sideways tornado outside our home. I actually watched the wind come down the street before jumping back behind the garage. Both Mid and I ran for the door and watched it through the storm door (lol of course...this is Oklahoma).

You know it's not going to be good when the power gets knocked out before the storm even gets to your home. Guess I'll batten down the hatches today. Easier now than later...

CU development is starting to pick up from Major County south to near Altus. Things looking good to start popping between 3 and 4.

Latest HRRR showing its idea of development here late this afternoon/early evening: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2012052916&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

Now starting to get CU development south of the Red River in NW Texas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0963.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292006Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
KS...WCNTRL OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY 2130Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR
CHILDRESS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX INTO WRN OK
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. WARMING SFC TEMPS ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE
CAPPING INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF WRN OK AND PARTS OF
SW KS WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AROUND 21Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FAVORED ZONE FOR INITIATION
WILL BE FROM GAGE OK ARCHING SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND BACK SWWD INTO NW
TX WHERE SEVERAL FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE BECOMING AGITATED ACCORDING
TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM SW KS INTO WRN
OK HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FROM 1 KM TO 4 KM AGL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS
OCCUR...A SEVERE MCS APPEARS LIKELY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE
SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL OK.

..BROYLES/BUNTING/WEISS.. 05/29/2012

Things are starting to go now in SW KS. Watch will be up shortly.

Ww 317 severe tstm ks ok tx 292055z - 300400z
axis..85 statute miles east and west of line..
25nw p28/medicine lodge ks/ - 30wsw adm/ardmore ok/ ..aviation coords.. 75nm e/w /64w ict - 17wsw adm/ hail surface and aloft..3 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0317_radar.gif


HazardTornadoesEF2+ TornadoesLikelihoodLowVery LowSevere Wind65 kt+ WindHighLowSevere Hail2"+ HailHighModerate
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...WW
315...WW 316...

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM SWRN
KS INTO NWRN OK...AND WITH CAP CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN KS AND WRN OK. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTANT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS LATER THIS EVENING
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.

New cell going up fast in Blaine/Major counties just SW of Fairview...

Most attention will be on the chat room now as things are going to go very fast.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Severe (http://search.twitter.com/search?q=Severe)
Thunderstorm Warning for Alfalfa, Woods [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

Major County storm is increasing now and the storms in the SW are picking up a little steam as well.

Closer to the Metro:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alfalfa, Blaine, Garfield, Grant, Kingfisher, Major [OK] till 6:30 PM

Also a new tower trying to go up between Hydro and Bridgeport.

It looks like the line forming is weakest in the middle.

Is there a cap or something similar in place over the central part of the state?

The storm northwest of the city seems very familiar to the storm a few years ago that caused all that hail damage. Hope this won't be the case.

Game of squeeze play for the Metro area coming up. Severe storm in Kingfisher Co moving SE will impact the Northern Metro area. Another severe storm moving NE out of Caddo County will impact the Southern Metro area...as it looks now.

Tornado (http://search.twitter.com/search?q=Tornado)
Warning for Canadian, Oklahoma [OK] till 9:00 PM CDT

Full attention is at the chat right now. Two storms with increasing rotation to the west in Canadian County. Hail sizes seem to be getting more reasonable now, but strong winds/heavy rain still very possible.

I got hit hard by the hail... several shattered windows on the south side

I was trying to leave 50 penn place in time but got trapped there. I ran up on a curb and parked under a tree. still have bumps on the car but no window damage. could have been a lot worse for me. but I saw cars just get shattered

We lost power here in Edmond for well over an hour...had a few 3" diameter hail stones

Small hail. Wind enough to snap a small treeee. Not enough to topple far larger dead tree ... Drat.
Poeer out my block anyay, couple of hours now. Sad am I. My cpap is askeered of the dark, or something like that. Sure wish it wasn't though.

MODERATE RISK for TODAY (Wednesday)
Area: West of a line from Medford to Stillwater to Wewoka to Coalgate to Durant
Risk Values: Tornado (10%), Significant Wind (30%), Significant Hail (45%)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK/N TX
AND A SMALL PORTION OF SRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF WRN NEB
SWD INTO N TX/SWRN MO/WRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BECOME
REINFORCED ON ITS WRN FRINGE AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...DEPARTING T.D. BERYL IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING OFF
THE SERN U.S. COAST EARLY...LEAVING A WEAK WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE
AXIS IN ITS WAKE -- EXTENDING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INVOF NWRN TX DURING
THE DAY...WITH A COMBINATION FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE
OK VICINITY AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES IN
THE OK/TX VICINITY AND THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI THIS PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OK/TX VICINITY...WITH SOME THREAT EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION -- AND AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
SHOULD BE RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN OK DURING
THE DAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY -- EXPECTED TO
RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL OR NRN OK...AND A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX TOWARD WRN OK...WILL LIKELY FOCUS UPDRAFT
INITIATION -- AIDED BY THE A SUBTLE FEATURE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD BE
SHIFTING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING CONTINUALLY SUPPLIED BY
WLY FLOW ALOFT -- SPREADING ATOP A MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY
LAYER...STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES OVER WRN OK AND VICINITY FORECAST TO EXCEED 4000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ONCE STORMS INITIATE...FURTHER AIDED BY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. WHILE SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS...ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR/N OF THE SURFACE
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY SUPPORT A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO
PROBABILITY.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...WHERE LESSER -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OK AND VICINITY...COLLIDING
STORM OUTFLOWS COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
STORM CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. ALONG
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ROTATING
CELLS...WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE -- WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OK/N TX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR
MORE MCS/S.

So sorry for all the people with damage from last night's storm. I checked the house, this morning, and other than twigs, two seed grown tomato plants and a cajun pepper plant that deserved to die, anyway, we didn't have any damage. I am amazed that is so because we got lots of rain, high winds and two inch hail.

So sorry for all the people with damage from last night's storm. I checked the house, this morning, and other than twigs, two seed grown tomato plants and a cajun pepper plant that deserved to die, anyway, we didn't have any damage. I am amazed that is so because we got lots of rain, high winds and two inch hail.

I got off pretty lightly. The worst that happened to me was my already damaged fence blew over twice(First it fell one way, then the wind shifted and flipped it over the other way) and my flowers got shredded. Tons of trees down in my neighborhood, though. I had to zig zag around them on my way to work.

Large hail, lots of rain and wind here. Total of 8 broken out windows on the south side and the hail hit hard enough to ruin the blinds over the windows. Large tree limb down in the back yard too.

Managed to get out just fine here. I was worried about my little garden plot, but dang if it doesn't look happier today than it's looked so far this spring. Weird. It was hard to sleep this morning with the hail on the roof.

Hey, venture, about what time are we looking for today's weather to start?

I was wondering what's going to happen today too

Now to a topic those that suffered damage yesterday don't want to hear...Round 2.

Morning model guidance is indicating that the activity going on right now should continue to push east and skies remain mostly clear back to the West and North. Now the setup for today is a bit complex so I wanted to point out all the main features for today.

1771

So we have the main storm system out in the TX PH today that will be pulling out. The stationary front has moved north over Northern OK. Then as you can see on the graphic we have several outflow boundaries (black lines). These can become a focal point for development later and could also provide enhanced areas of storms to intensify/rotate later on. Current the atmosphere is fairly worked over behind the complex moving south. Instability is pretty low right now, but should rebound pretty quickly. In the next few hours we are expecting instability to become extreme especially from the OKC area and back to the west.

HRRR model is showing things should start to pop around 4-6PM across Western OK. We should also be looking at a developing complex across Western KS that will likely drop south as a strong complex with the potential for widespread damaging winds. These initial storms will have the risk of very large to giant hail and tornadoes. The greatest risk for those will be across NW OK and W KS. Then like we have seen in past years (think 2001 and 2006?) and even a bit yesterday, they will combine into a large forward moving bow complex. The threat will transition quickly from large hail and tornadoes to significant widespread destructive winds. As we saw yesterday we had many reports of 80 mph or higher. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that we could see widespread 70-90 mph winds with the MCC/MCS. These are typically called Derechos and here is a quick info page on a major one we had about 10 years ago: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may27-282001page.htm.

More Derecho Info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm#srnplains

So main rule today is be prepared, have things secured down that didn't fly away last night, and just be prepared. We'll see a new SPC outlook out here soon, but as of right now the Moderate Risk area (most likely area for the above mentioned activity) covers nearly all of Western and Central OK - including the Metro Area.

Thank you for the update Venture! I have a question concerning the HRRR model. I know you have a link to it posted on the first page of this thread but am having trouble using it. I don't know what I'm looking at and what I should select. Yesterday you posted the HRRR and it looped to show convective development and motion, etc. What do I need to do to be able to look at the information myself today and going forward? I understand if you don't have time to do this today, but at some point a quick tutorial would be nice. I get lost trying to figure it out.

I went through a derecho in 2006 in St Louis. They are every bit as scary as a tornado. This occurred during the same weekend as the opening of the new Busch Stadium, and several people were hurt very badly during a Cardinals game. The best way I would describe it is 3-5 minutes of howling 70-80 mph winds (no gusts just straight unrelenting winds). Since they are huge geographically there is no escape. I just got my power back on at my house this morning and I definitely will be preparing for this tonight. During the height of the storm, something like 70% of St Louis City/County was without power.

Venture, maybe I heard wrong but I always understood that derechos were summer events that usually occurred in the Midwest and Northeast?

Thank you for the update Venture! I have a question concerning the HRRR model. I know you have a link to it posted on the first page of this thread but am having trouble using it. I don't know what I'm looking at and what I should select. Yesterday you posted the HRRR and it looped to show convective development and motion, etc. What do I need to do to be able to look at the information myself today and going forward? I understand if you don't have time to do this today, but at some point a quick tutorial would be nice. I get lost trying to figure it out.

Sure...so the main page is: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

So for the simulated radar image you will go under the 3rd product called Composite Reflectivity and click the check mark under loop. That will provide the image I normally put. There are a ton of other products available for this model so enjoy. :)

I went through a derecho in 2006 in St Louis. They are every bit as scary as a tornado. This occurred during the same weekend as the opening of the new Busch Stadium, and several people were hurt very badly during a Cardinals game. The best way I would describe it is 3-5 minutes of howling 70-80 mph winds (no gusts just straight unrelenting winds). Since they are huge geographically there is no escape. I just got my power back on at my house this morning and I definitely will be preparing for this tonight. During the height of the storm, something like 70% of St Louis City/County was without power.

Venture, maybe I heard wrong but I always understood that derechos were summer events that usually occurred in the Midwest and Northeast?

Derecho's are what causes power to be out for several days. That and icestorms.

How do you say Derecho? Is it Derecho, like Jericho, or Der-Echo? If I ever have a reason to say it out loud, I don't want to sound like an idiot ;)

Venture, maybe I heard wrong but I always understood that derechos were summer events that usually occurred in the Midwest and Northeast?

Growing up in the Great Lakes we definitely seemed to experience them quite a bit it seemed, more so than down here. However, in the 2nd link above it had an image to show just how common they are here and the typical time frame for them...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/images/Jet_Stream_figs/derechoclimo.png http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/images/Jet_Stream_figs/derechobymonth.png

As you can see we are pretty much right in the thick of it and also in the peak season for them. Normally we do tend to see them more in the summer here because we are often in a NW flow pattern then where they develop over SE CO and W KS and race southeast.

How do you say Derecho? Is it Derecho, like Jericho, or Der-Echo? If I ever have a reason to say it out loud, I don't want to sound like an idiot ;)

I'm so glad Wiki has this already typed out. LOL

derecho (Spanish (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_language): derecho (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/derecho) "straight", pronounced [de̞ˈɾe̞tʃo̞] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IPA_for_Spanish))

Sure...so the main page is: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

So for the simulated radar image you will go under the 3rd product called Composite Reflectivity and click the check mark under loop. That will provide the image I normally put. There are a ton of other products available for this model so enjoy. :)

Thanks very much! I'm off to have a look.:)

I'm so glad Wiki has this already typed out. LOL

derecho (Spanish (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_language): derecho (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/derecho) "straight", pronounced [de̞ˈɾe̞tʃo̞] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IPA_for_Spanish))

I'm glad you didn't have to type that out lol.

I'm glad you didn't have to type that out lol.

I would still be trying to figure it out. LOL

Couple updates...

- Moderate Risk has been expanded in size. The Western Edge is now from the Beaver/Harper County line south to Arnett to Sayre to Altus. The Eastern edge is now from Bartlesville to Tulsa to Okmulgee to Coalgate to Durant.
- 10% Tornado Risk area is roughly from Medford to Guthrie to NW OKC to El Reno to Arapaho to Arnett and back to the north...so north of that line is the great tornado risk.
- 45% Hail Risk with Significant Hail Risk (2"+) is in the Moderate Risk area.
- 45% Damaging Wind Risk with Significant Wind (75 mph +) is in the same Moderate Risk area.

Sure...so the main page is: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

So for the simulated radar image you will go under the 3rd product called Composite Reflectivity and click the check mark under loop. That will provide the image I normally put. There are a ton of other products available for this model so enjoy. :)

So neat, Venture. Thanks for the link and instructions. I am not sure I am making proper heads or tails of them but am having fun exploring.

2PM Update...

CU development is well underway in many areas west of I-35. Best CU fields right now are over SW KS, NC OK, and also along the dryline in the southern TX PH. We also still show good evidence of outflow boundaries remaining. Most prominent one is from around Lawton southeast into the DFW Metroplex. Looking at visible satellite also shows a good amount of difference in wind direction with height.

Instability is increase rapidly as well. We are now highly unstable here in Central sections. CIN values are still relatively high right now to keep a lid on things for a bit longer. CIN values are gone in the TX PH and instability is very high to extreme out there.

HRRR is wanting to get things going pretty quickly now, but seems it is off by a couple of hours. It has storms popping up initially in SW KS (where an MCD is now posted by SPC) and then along the dryline in the TX PH. It keeps Oklahoma activity relatively low right now until 5PM with some storms moving into far northern and far SW OK. It then also develops some isolated storms over Central OK by 6PM. Damaging MCS is well advertised now to enter NW OK by 7PM and race SE. It is shown to impact OKC Metro by 10PM.

We'll need to see how things progress. I think timing is off by a bit and it is underplaying some chances for earlier development in Oklahoma. Of course if we don't see anything in Oklahoma before hand, that is going to provide a lot of energy for this MCS/MCC to feed off of through Oklahoma. It isn't out of the realm of possibility we could see a rare PDS SVR box.

I'll be in the chat later this afternoon. Have some things to tend to right before dinner time. I'll hurry - promise! :)

If we get a rerun of last night's storm, I think that all of the local TV Weatherpersons need to be replaced.

(that was a veiled compliment to what you, Sir (venture79) do right here in this forum.
please do not confuse that statement with anything other than what it is.)

Where I grew up (on the eastern slope o' the Rockies) we didn't have "Der-Ah-Chose" . . .
We had "Chinooks".

I worked with a guy from Chicago (back then) who thought that "Schnook Winds" were the funniest thing he ever heard of.
He also never ended sentences in prepositions.
In addition to that, he never had all of the windows of every vehicle at the house broken out by flying gravelrocks and all of the windows on the west side of the house blown out by the 110 mph peak gusts--that interrupted the 60 mph straight winds.

(You could see NCAR On The Mesa from our front yard.
The Chinooks once broke their Wind Gauge so they could only estimate the actual speed . . . )

Starting to get some elevated development along the dryline. Appears to be several tower CU / "turkey towers" going up. On radar nothing is showing on the surface scan, but on the ones as a higher angle do pick them up. Would not be shocked to see the panhandle and western OK boxed here soon to accommodate this.

No major changes to the SPC outlook except reducing tornado risk due to expected MCS mode...pretty much the main point we've been pushing the last couple of days.

Venture, do you think that by the time storms reach the metro the hail threat and size will have diminished? I'm asking because it seems when the storms came through last night they were split for a good while. I honestly don't remember ever hearing of such a large coverage of large hail in other storms when they're congealed.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0322_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 120 MILES NORTH OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
TWO. ERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT AREA IS LIMITED BY LOW LEVEL
STABILITY AS INDICATED BY WAVE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...RESULTING
IN A RATHER NARROW ZONE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27015.

Venture, do you think that by the time storms reach the metro the hail threat and size will have diminished? I'm asking because it seems when the storms came through last night they were split for a good while. I honestly don't remember ever hearing of such a large coverage of large hail in other storms when they're congealed.

As it looks right now hail around 2" is still going to be possible with the MCS, though typically these are more wind machines than hail producers.

Thank you. And I know the wind threat is nothing to sneeze at. I remember years ago, maybe 1994 or so, when we had a straight line wind event. No power for several days, downed limbs, trees across streets, etc. I'd just prefer not to have the hail blowing in that kind of wind.

Thank you. And I know the wind threat is nothing to sneeze at. I remember years ago, maybe 1994 or so, when we had a straight line wind event. No power for several days, downed limbs, trees across streets, etc. I'd just prefer not to have the hail blowing in that kind of wind.

Yup I'm with you there.

Just an FYI...Kansas is now boxed in with a severe tstorm watch.

"god-awful" mike morgan last night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNNc20qKJiY

Will we be getting heavy rainfall in the metro again?

Watching Amarillo radar light up while enjoying 70 deg in Portland Oregon. 2200Z HRRR got it pretty good although a bit to the east.

Say venture79, your avatar sure looks like landing at pdx( portland, Or ) with Mt. Hood in the background. My second guess would be landing at SeaTac.

Miss the thunderstorms... Very quiet in Oregon.

Mike