Quick forecast update...risk of severe storms this Thursday afternoon/evening. Main threat right now looks like damaging wind and hail. Will cover it more as we get closer.

I was at CVS Saturday morning and as I was checking out, a guy walked in and asked if they had any weather radios. They did not.

I think it is best not to buy a weather radio. That is to say not just any weather radio. For those who equally value their sanity and sleep as well as warning, the latest higher end models not only have the S.A.M.E. technology that allows the owner to restrict warnings to specific counties, but also allows the noise maker to be turned off for most events. I have a Sangean CL-100 and when any warning is issued, the yellow, orange, or red lights blink, the display lights up and the type of warning scrolls across the screen. I have, however, the audible alert so tightly locked down that if the radio actually makes a noise, I'd better get up and see what's going on. When the NWS implements the phase where counties are broken down into sectors, warning fill be further limited to those that are directly relevant. I suspect that all manufacturers of weather radios have models with this feature. I chose the Sangean over Midalnd because at the end of the warning, it recognizes the "end of message" data and resets while the Midland radios continue to broadcast for a short period until a timer runs out.

A sixth person passed away this morning from the Woodward tornado.

Thoughts and prayers to the families and friends of those killed and injured.

The media has been asking questions about the Woodward sirens……

but they should also be asking the city of Norman why for the second time in recent years they failed to sound their sirens in a timely manner with tornadoes on the ground doing damage with in the city limits of Norman.

Both Norman tornados were reported by local TV and reported by storm chasers well before the city sounded its sirens, probably by about 5 minutes. I find this highly unacceptable and inexcusable.

If anything the ultra hype by the local media might have over done it, but again as had been said...if something did manage to pop and set off the chain reaction we would have been singing a different tune.Way back in 1998, a colleague and I worked closely with Gary England and Southwestern Bell to develop a technology that for the very first time allowed the chasers to send near-real-time video back to the station via cell phones. It used a desktop PC installed in the chase vehicle, with the camera's video being converted to MP4 format and stored on the hard drive, and a 9600-baud connection to the studio via an ordinary cell phone. Another PC at the studio received the transmission, decoded it, and fed reconstructed video to the engineers for broadcast. Since at the time, no cell phones included cameras of any sort, it was true state-of-the-art stuff. I did all of the software for both ends of the circuit; by cutting image quality to the absolute minimum acceptable and restricting each shot to a maximum of 15 seconds, we got the processing time down to less than a minute and the station bought the system. Bobby Payne got the first mobile unit; I don't remember who got the second, but it may have been Hank Brown. The first on-the-air use of the system was during the storm that took out the Lake Hefner Yacht Club in the spring of 1998, then hopscotched across Nichols Hills to Britton and felled the WKY radio tower. The first shot sent from the mobile was from the Lake Hefner Parkway, showing the funnel just after it had hit the yacht club; it was on the air before the storm reached the station area.

This is all by way of prelude to my main comment: While we were testing the system, we chatted with Gary about the problems of forecasting things as much as a week in advance. He told us that nothing past a couple of days out was at all reliable, and going out as far as a week (the stations had just begin showing 7-day outlooks) was total voodoo. However, he added, the competition had raised the bar, so he had to meet the challenge. I suspect that's still the situation, although in the intervening 14 years the window of reliability has increased significantly (as has the technology of mobile TV).

The level of hype these days is definitely a case of the boy crying wolf, though. Personally I don't pay any attention to drama queens on TV any more. I watch their chase shots in real time now and marvel at their quality, but for forecasts I come here and to your chat room. My NOAA radio remains turned on round the clock, but it's limited to my immediate counties. When its alarm goes off, I listen. But I try not to panic every time a TV meteorologist begins yelling. Maybe one of them will return to the old days and use a calm, professional delivery to drive the seriousness of his (or her) messages home. At least I can hope...

The media has been asking questions about the Woodward sirens……

but they should also be asking the city of Norman why for the second time in recent years they failed to sound their sirens in a timely manner with tornadoes on the ground doing damage with in the city limits of Norman.

Both Norman tornados were reported by local TV and reported by storm chasers well before the city sounded its sirens, probably by about 5 minutes. I find this highly unacceptable and inexcusable.

ou48, I was watching Ch9 when that tornado hit down there, and I suspect one reason they didn't sound any warnings is that the circulation moving out of Chickasha was pretty broad, and the rain was so hard I suspect no one saw it on the ground too long before KWTV's choppers had it on-air live. That said, I don't recall when the NWS folks actually issued the TW for it...

Maybe one of them will return to the old days and use a calm, professional delivery to drive the seriousness of his (or her) messages home.

Lemme tell ya, I don't know how you'd get a calmer, more professional presentation of a true, on-the-ground tornado emergency for a large city than the one provided on Sat. night by Dave Freeman, chief meteorologist at KSN TV, which I think is the NBC affiliate up in Wichita. When the first storm out of Woodward turned NE and dropped this huge wedge tornado and took aim at Wichita, I started watching their live stream and even when they evacuated non-essential personnel out of their main studio when it seemed they were very much in the storm's path, this guy was dead-level calm, absolutely professional, zero hype or hysteria. I was incredibly impressed. Lots of TV weather guys deserve their hype/criticism, but man, not this guy. Think several of us that were in Venture's chatroom Sat night were watching the same thing and had a similar impression.

He told us that nothing past a couple of days out was at all reliable, and going out as far as a week (the stations had just begin showing 7-day outlooks) was total voodoo. However, he added, the competition had raised the bar, so he had to meet the challenge.

For those of us who have been in the OKC area most of our lives (such as yours truly), and watched Gary England literally for years (decades, even, back to his "thunder lizard" days at KTOK), its fair to say he has mellowed tremendously in that time. He went through his own hype phase back in the days of plain, black-and-white radar, but I think after seeing this trend in other meteorologists in and out of the region, he realized that throttling back that aspect of his delivery was a more effective way of communicating emergency weather information.

I think the one authentic criticism that has emerged from this discussion, and I'm sure one the SPC folks will think long and hard about as it seeks to improve, regard that multi-day advanced prediction. Most folks who follow the weather in more than a casual way understand that forecasts much beyond three days are specious at best. There's a serious equation of balance to be assessed in emphasizing that long-range look so far ahead versus the probability that forecast will change, perhaps drastically, in the interim.

ou48, I was watching Ch9 when that tornado hit down there, and I suspect one reason they didn't sound any warnings is that the circulation moving out of Chickasha was pretty broad, and the rain was so hard I suspect no one saw it on the ground too long before KWTV's choppers had it on-air live. That said, I don't recall when the NWS folks actually issued the TW for it...

KFOR CH 4 showed a clearly well defined (visible to the eye on TV) tornado via a helicopter shot with David Payne calling play by play just outside the southwest side of Norman and I believe before it crossed the river.

As I said this was about 5 minutes before the city of Norman sounded its sirens.

People with authority to sound Norman sirens should be monitoring all 3 local TV stations as other communities do.
Norman just installed a new state of the art siren system but it does little good if the people responsible for operating it are not doing a good job of monitoring weather threats.

Dave, I was lurking there also and agree that Dave Freeman set the example of what a professional broadcaster ought to be. Perhaps some of our next-generation chief meteorologists will take him as an example to emulate.

And I agree that Gary has mellowed a lot from the days of the Thunder Lizard, but I do believe that he's started to meet Mad Mike's challenge when I compare his delivery this past couple of days with how he handled May 3. Seems like Rick is the calmest of the three nowadays!

Dave, I was lurking there also and agree that Dave Freeman set the example of what a professional broadcaster ought to be. Perhaps some of our next-generation chief meteorologists will take him as an example to emulate.

And I agree that Gary has mellowed a lot from the days of the Thunder Lizard, but I do believe that he's started to meet Mad Mike's challenge when I compare his delivery this past couple of days with how he handled May 3. Seems like Rick is the calmest of the three nowadays!

Agree completely.

I got a somewhat panicky phone call from a relative Saturday about the weather, tried to explain there was *nothing* in the area they lived, and they explained what they were seeing on the channel they were watching, and when they told me what channel (and I won't name it here to avoid any potential fights from lurkers), I told them "Stop watching that channel. Watch (nearly any other channel), or turn off the TV because there's nothing imminent in your area at all..." Hate the hypers.

I’m not a pilot or very familiar helicopter fuel regulations but the TV helicopters have a lot of down time because of fueling issues.
Is there a reason why they couldn’t haul the fuel in a truck to a nearby location so they could get back up in the air quicker? If there is a rule maybe they should seek an special exception.
Also could they not use specialty built drones to chase with?

For me it’s about who is getting the best helicopter shots, giving the most accurate locations and the best expected direction of travel. I often have all 3 stations on at the same time but the sound up on only one.
I have been yelled at by coaches so many times that delivery makes very little difference.

Way back in 1998, a colleague and I worked closely with Gary England and Southwestern Bell to develop a technology that for the very first time allowed the chasers to send near-real-time video back to the station via cell phones. It used a desktop PC installed in the chase vehicle, with the camera's video being converted to MP4 format and stored on the hard drive, and a 9600-baud connection to the studio via an ordinary cell phone. Another PC at the studio received the transmission, decoded it, and fed reconstructed video to the engineers for broadcast. Since at the time, no cell phones included cameras of any sort, it was true state-of-the-art stuff. I did all of the software for both ends of the circuit; by cutting image quality to the absolute minimum acceptable and restricting each shot to a maximum of 15 seconds, we got the processing time down to less than a minute and the station bought the system. Bobby Payne got the first mobile unit; I don't remember who got the second, but it may have been Hank Brown. The first on-the-air use of the system was during the storm that took out the Lake Hefner Yacht Club in the spring of 1998, then hopscotched across Nichols Hills to Britton and felled the WKY radio tower. The first shot sent from the mobile was from the Lake Hefner Parkway, showing the funnel just after it had hit the yacht club; it was on the air before the storm reached the station area.

This is all by way of prelude to my main comment: While we were testing the system, we chatted with Gary about the problems of forecasting things as much as a week in advance. He told us that nothing past a couple of days out was at all reliable, and going out as far as a week (the stations had just begin showing 7-day outlooks) was total voodoo. However, he added, the competition had raised the bar, so he had to meet the challenge. I suspect that's still the situation, although in the intervening 14 years the window of reliability has increased significantly (as has the technology of mobile TV).

The level of hype these days is definitely a case of the boy crying wolf, though. Personally I don't pay any attention to drama queens on TV any more. I watch their chase shots in real time now and marvel at their quality, but for forecasts I come here and to your chat room. My NOAA radio remains turned on round the clock, but it's limited to my immediate counties. When its alarm goes off, I listen. But I try not to panic every time a TV meteorologist begins yelling. Maybe one of them will return to the old days and use a calm, professional delivery to drive the seriousness of his (or her) messages home. At least I can hope...

Living here in Oregon for the past thirty years I can only observe Oklahoma weather at a distance, which I do quite often.
Thunderstorms are a rarity in Western Oregon, but even then they're a far cry fron those in the Midwest. We do get very strong wind storms coming in off the Pacific which can give us prolonged hurricane force winds.

Anyways, I've found the forecast discussions on the local NWS( National Weather Service ) pages to be most helpful in explaining how the forecasts develop.
The computer models play a big role and their accuracy is pretty good in the 24 - 48 hour time frame but going more than a couple of days out they are vodoo and the forecasters admit that. Very often all they can do is "punt" and go with climatology data. In addition, we have some geographic features( namely the Columbia River Gorge ) which can greatly influence the local weather and is outside of the scope of the computer models.

At least in Oklahoma you have the benefit of half a continent of data reporting to feed the models. In Oregon we have only the cold North Pacific. Most of the data has to be satellite derived except for whatever marine reports there are.

Have to admit I do miss a rocking thunderstorm.

Rainy with highs in the 50's. Normal.

Mike

I’m not a pilot or very familiar helicopter fuel regulations but the TV helicopters have a lot of down time because of fueling issues.
Is there a reason why they couldn’t haul the fuel in a truck to a nearby location so they could get back up in the air quicker? If there is a rule maybe they should seek an special exception.
Also could they not use specialty built drones to chase with?

I don't think lack of refueling locations is really a problem. The helicopter can relocate itself to an airport a lot faster than a refueling truck can drive to the general area of the helicopter. Its actually refueling the helicopter that takes time and really it doesn't take that long. It just seems that way because things change minute by minute.

I don't think lack of refueling locations is really a problem. The helicopter can relocate itself to an airport a lot faster than a refueling truck can drive to the general area of the helicopter. Its actually refueling the helicopter that takes time and really it doesn't take that long. It just seems that way because things change minute by minute.

The reason why I ask is that at one point one of the helicopters had to fly to Enid to refuel a distance of about 50 to 60 miles.
A fuel truck could keep up with a storm but refuel at a safe standoff distance. This could be done at much closer distance than flying to airport locations particularly in western Ok. I also realize that they can’t land just anywhere to refuel.

PS: how long does it take to refuel?

Have to admit I do miss a rocking thunderstorm.

Rainy with highs in the 50's. Normal.From late 1959 to early 1962 I lived in the Los Angeles area, and also missed the occasional rocking thunderstorm. I remember the only one I saw there in that two and a half years -- there was a single lightning bolt and one roar of thunder. The next morning it was the number one story on the front page of the L.A. Times!

I also missed snow in the wintertime, and never got used to going around in shorts on New Year's Day...

At least Oregon has a few more seasons even if not as much variety in them...

I’m not a pilot or very familiar helicopter fuel regulations but the TV helicopters have a lot of down time because of fueling issues.
Is there a reason why they couldn’t haul the fuel in a truck to a nearby location so they could get back up in the air quicker? If there is a rule maybe they should seek an special exception.
Also could they not use specialty built drones to chase with?

When flying under visual flight rules helicopters are required to have a 20 minute fuel reserve( FAR 91.151 ) . Most small helicopters do not have a lot of fuel to begin with and they are not particularly fuel efficient. Hence the need for frequent fuel stops.

There is no regulation( other than local fuel storage regs ) against storing fuel at airports or other landing locations that I know of. The only real issues here are cost because anything to do with helicopters is very expensive. Bunkering fuel at remote locations would only increase cost and the frequency of "helicopter worthy" news events is probably not that great. Helicopters attract viewers, who in turn attract advertisers, who are the ones who pay the money. You need to have a fairly large viewership to support helicopter operations. That is why you can have have helicopters in the Los Angeles area around to film police chases where as the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area( about 2.2 million ) isn't a large enough market to support that kind of thing. News stations here have local charter companies operate the helicopters for them when needed.

Drones are likely to be the future for that kind of thing.

Mike

Dave, I was lurking there also and agree that Dave Freeman set the example of what a professional broadcaster ought to be. Perhaps some of our next-generation chief meteorologists will take him as an example to emulate.

And I agree that Gary has mellowed a lot from the days of the Thunder Lizard, but I do believe that he's started to meet Mad Mike's challenge when I compare his delivery this past couple of days with how he handled May 3. Seems like Rick is the calmest of the three nowadays!

I was really impressed with the KSN coverage. That brief "Oh no" moment when he realized the storm almost seemed to be following the track of a bad one from twenty years ago was about as bad as it got in terms of getting worked up.

Locally, I really like Rick Mitchell. I just wish KOCO had a chopper and more chasers. He gets a bit animated, but he's much more level than Mad Mike. I want info, not hype. Gary is pretty mellow, but I'm not a long time resident, so I don't know the earlier days. I do have a tremendous amount of respect for him and the advances he's helped bring about in forecasting and communications with the general public, though.

Locally, I really like Rick Mitchell. I just wish KOCO had a chopper and more chasers. He gets a bit animated, but he's much more level than Mad Mike. I want info, not hype. Gary is pretty mellow, but I'm not a long time resident, so I don't know the earlier days. I do have a tremendous amount of respect for him and the advances he's helped bring about in forecasting and communications with the general public, though.

They do have a helicopter. :-)

I find myself bouncing between all 3 to get a balance. However it really is hard to top Gary and his crew of experienced trackers. They have all been around now for years and it really shows.

New Day 3 is out for Thursday and the risk for severe weather...NAM and GFS haven't really been together on timing with this at all. They have both been adjusted further west though with each run. NAM now has initiation across Central OK 5-7 PM Thursday and GFS around 6-8PM across Northwestern OK. Conditions are pretty unclear right now. Looks like hail/wind main threats. Winds aren't going to be all that perfect for tornadoes.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NW MO TO NW TX...

SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY3
AS THE NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE EWD TRANSLATION OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER AND GENERALLY AGREE WITH EACH
OTHER ALLOWING MORE ENERGY TO DIG ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE EVENING THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS OF A STRONGER LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 20/00Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE
APRIL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT FROM ERN KS...SWWD INTO WRN OK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
LOW. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AT
ROUGHLY 25-30KT INTO A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBS GIVEN THAT MODELS DIFFER SO
GREATLY ON SHORT-WAVE PLACEMENT.

..DARROW.. 04/17/2012

Threat appears to be increasing for a hail/wind threat tomorrow afternoon and Evening from SW OK to NC OK from Altus to Ponca City and to the east of that line. NAM and GFS are in agreement with developing storms between 5-7PM. Forecast soundings show moderate instability favorable to large hail and strong winds. Tornado threat looks pretty low right now. Storm motions ENE @ 20-30 mph. A moderate CAP is forecast as well, so that needs to be taking into consideration.

What is it looking like the last weekend of this month and the first week of May? David Payne hinted this morning about a storm system up near Alaska that would be comming into Oklahoma in the time frame I listed above and we could be dealing with the big time severe weather like we had last Friday/Saturday. Thoughts??

What is it looking like the last weekend of this month and the first week of May? David Payne hinted this morning about a storm system up near Alaska that would be comming into Oklahoma in the time frame I listed above and we could be dealing with the big time severe weather like we had last Friday/Saturday. Thoughts??

He will have a more detailed discussion, but to sum it up: check back at the end of the month. Lol

David Payne in the past has said there are going to be big storms during the first week of May just because its the first week of May.

He will have a more detailed discussion, but to sum it up: check back at the end of the month. Lol

David Payne in the past has said there are going to be big storms during the first week of May just because its the first week of May.

Oh, I didnt know you were Ventures secretary. Well if I ever need a jokester I will call on you. Thank you for your input.

SPC added a slight risk for an area I discussed earlier...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL IA TO SWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
AMPLIFY ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
LOWER ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG A S/SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AT 20/00Z...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD
BE CENTERED INVOF THE IA/MO BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD AND INTERSECTING ANOTHER LOW AND DRYLINE INVOF NWRN TX.

...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR A BROAD INFLUX OF RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST...A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE INVOF THE MO/IA SURFACE CYCLONE AND
THEN DEVELOP SWWD INTO EARLY EVENING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. STRONG
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULT IN A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL. WITH STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING/VEERING IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND INTENSITY OF HAIL GROWTH. A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET JUST NE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED
PRIOR TO A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN MLCIN. WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL TX...AN MCS COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED IN OK TO THE OZARK PLATEAU THU NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH TIME AND ERN EXTENT OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2012

Things are pretty much on schedule as expected.

Slight risk has been expanded some to cover most of Oklahoma except far NW and far SE portions of the station. An area from Central OK back to SW OK has the risk of very large hail today and perhaps a tornado or two this evening. We are looking at a late show with this one again, so Central OK won't see things until after dark as it appears now.

NWSNorman: May be enough wind shear for a few supercells to develop toward dark Wichita Falls to Lawton to Chickasha. Stay alert! #okwx [via Twitter]

Updated SPC outlook is tightening up the greatest risk area from I-40 south to the Red River. HRRR runs seem to concur with this. Latest run has potential for supercells to develop around 9-10PM over Southern and SW OK. Nothing widespread. Large hail main threat, though a very low tornado threat is there. Evolution to a smaller MCS then that will sweep across the southern half of OK. At this point wind damage becomes the main threat. Everything should push out of Central OK by 3AM, though some light rain/scattered showers possible through morning.

HRRR wants to develop a small line of storms from OKC north to east of Ponca City around 6PM...filling in down to Lawton at 7PM before falling apart. Then at 9PM develop a few supercells over SW OK moving them ENE and then the more defined storm complex just behind it. The later storms look to stay south of OKC right now, mostly Norman and south. However...models can be off in exactly placement.

Venture, thanks for posting all of this. It's very helpful and you make it easy for us meteorology laymen to under what's going on/what can be expected. Also, it's extremely interesting (to me, at least).

Mesoscale Discussion 567
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0567.html

Since the MCD stuff is static I'll post it here for quick reference.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0567.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL / CNTRL / SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192310Z - 200115Z

THE AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WW --ALBEIT DELAYED UNTIL THE CAP IS BREACHED
AND SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY /00-03Z TIMEFRAME/.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW SERVING AS A TRIPLE
POINT-LIKE FEATURE 30 MI WNW SPS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY. A WINDSHIFT/WEAK COOL FRONT
EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE APPRECIABLE
FRONTAL SEGMENT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION --HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR-- AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACCAS FIELD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...MAKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE PROBABLE AS THIS
CONVECTION DEEPENS WITHIN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND CINH WEAKENS
FURTHER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VEERING
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50 KTS AT 5KM AGL AT KFDR VAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE A
CONGLOMERATION OF SCTD STORMS/COLD POOLS FAVORS A MIXED MODE BY LATE
EVENING. DESPITE SUPERCELL SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO SUNSET AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
--INCREASING TOWARDS DUSK AND THEREAFTER -- WILL LARGELY
LIMIT/NEGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

Watch incoming.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0183_radar.gif

WW 183 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 192340Z - 200600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35W MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 20NE OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /63ENE ABI - 19NE OKC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-067-069-081-085-087-095-099-
109-123-125-133-137-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.120419T2340Z-120420T0600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LINCOLN LOVE
MARSHALL MCCLAIN MURRAY
OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS


TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-485-497-503-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.120419T2340Z-120420T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WISE
YOUNG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TX...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE IN A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. BUT...SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012


WS 0183
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%


&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Storms firing from Lawton south. Storms south of the Red River are severe now. Stay alert things are firing fast.

This one is showing hail over 2" on radar but it is probably just extremely heavy rain.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012






THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 727 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

Spotter confirmed hail up to tennis balls moving into the metro.

Spotter confirmed hail up to tennis balls moving into the metro.

Where??

As it appears right now HRRR got it pretty good, however the complex of storms is farther north in Central OK instead of south. Right now larger hail is in a storm diving SE now and should moss most of the Metro area.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
848 pm cdt thu apr 19 2012
the national weather service in norman has issued a


severe thunderstorm warning for...
East central grady county in south central oklahoma...
Mcclain county in south central oklahoma...
* until 930 pm cdt
* at 844 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists detected
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large damaging hail up
to golf ball size and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This
storm was located near tabler...moving east at 40 mph.
* locations impacted include...
Purcell...blanchard...goldsby...washington...cole. ..dibble...
Middleberg...
Tabler and criner.

Very heavy rain here now... 50th and N May area

Main show appears to be getting under way now. Several severe storms with very large hail forming from Central back through SW OK.

Don't have time to post much right now. So here is a quick glimpse of potential severe days coming up...

Tuesday 4/24 - Central & West, greatest risk NC.
Wednesday 4/25 - Much of OK, greatest risk Central & West.
Friday 4/27 - SW OK.
May 2nd - Much of OK, greatest risk Central.
May 3rd - Much of OK, great risk Central & West. To those that frequent the Chat room, don't even start with the questions. You know what I'm talking about. LOL
May 4th - Much of OK, greatest risk Central.
May 5th - Much of OK, greatest risk Central - again.
May 6th - Much of OK, great risk I-35 and west.

Enjoy the quiet weather for now, May looks like it is going to be...well May. LOL

Update on the chat room, it it still running for now. I'll refresh the room about a day before any new period of severe weather. So probably next Monday and then again on the 30th. I'll also try to pull down some of the repetitive Twitter feeds to keep things a bit cleaner and less spammy.

NAM came into play today with Tuesday, completely different than GFS for Tuesday. So will hold off going in depth on anything until we see something more lined up.

Quick Outlook here for the morning...

Today 4/24 - High instability but strong cap, no storms.
Weds 4/25 - Very high to extreme instability, but strong cap. If something could form due to the high heat tomorrow it will be severe. Less than 10% chance though.
Thurs 4/26 - Same story...very high instability but strong cap and no forcing in the area. Less than 10% chance.
Fri 4/27 - Moderate to high instability, chance of storms mainly North and East. Severe possible.
Sat 4/28 - 06Z GFS: Chance of a storm SE, low instability however. 00Z GFS: Moderate to high instability along and east of I-44 with chance of severe weather developing.
Sun 4/29 - Chance of storms NW and SE, low instability and a low risk of severe.
Mon 4/30 - Chance of storms best North. Severe risk low.
Tues 5/1 - 06Z GFS: Storms appear probably/likely. Low instability should keep severe risk down. 00Z GFS: Moderate to High Instability most of Oklahoma, storms developing over Central & West. Severe probable.
Weds 5/2 - Instability up, storm chances down. Yes kinda backwards. Could see storms form very late however.
Thurs 5/3 - Instability moderate to high Central and East, best chance of storms Central. Severe possible.
Fri 5/4 - Instability high, chance of storms low and mainly SW.
Sat 5/5 - Instability moderate to high Central & East, chance of storms SW and Central. Severe possible.
Sun 5/6 - Low to Moderate instability, chance of storms most areas.
Mon 5/7 - Moderate instability, chance of storms probably I-44 and to the east. Severe possible.
Tues 5/8 to Thurs 5/10 - Drying out on the 06Z GFS but 00Z GFS did keep things pretty consistent as previous days.

We'll see how all this plays out. Still looks like the skies will only remain calm for so much longer.

The city of Woodward receives large donation from the Apache Oil & Gas

Personally, I say thanks.



The Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) today announced that an Apache donation will enable the city to replace its tornado warning system with new equipment that will include battery backup and redundant controls.

A tornado ripped through the western Oklahoma town shortly after midnight on April 15. Six people died and more than 20 were injured.

The signal tower for Woodward's tornado sirens was struck by lightning and the tornado hit the community moments later. Apache's $350,000 donation will fund the city's emergency acquisition of a state-of-the-art tornado warning system that will continue to operate in the case of an interruption of power. Installation of the new equipment is expected to begin this week.

Mayor Roscoe Hill commended the company, stating, "Apache is a long-term corporate citizen of Woodward. This very generous contribution demonstrates their profound commitment to our community. By dedicating funds to upgrade our early warning systems, Apache is saving lives, and we are extremely grateful."

"The City of Woodward is an important hub for Apache's operations in western Oklahoma and home for some of our employees," said Rob Johnston, Central Region vice president. "Our hearts go out to the families who were impacted by this devastating event. This donation is one way for Apache to help the community rebuild, rebound and be prepared for future tornadoes."

About Apache

Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Egypt, the United Kingdom North Sea, Australia and Argentina. From time to time, Apache posts announcements, updates and investor information, in addition to copies of all press releases, on its website, www.apachecorp.com.

The city of Woodward receives large donation from the Apache Oil & Gas

Personally, I say thanks.



The Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) today announced that an Apache donation will enable the city to replace its tornado warning system with new equipment that will include battery backup and redundant controls.

A tornado ripped through the western Oklahoma town shortly after midnight on April 15. Six people died and more than 20 were injured.

The signal tower for Woodward's tornado sirens was struck by lightning and the tornado hit the community moments later. Apache's $350,000 donation will fund the city's emergency acquisition of a state-of-the-art tornado warning system that will continue to operate in the case of an interruption of power. Installation of the new equipment is expected to begin this week.

Mayor Roscoe Hill commended the company, stating, "Apache is a long-term corporate citizen of Woodward. This very generous contribution demonstrates their profound commitment to our community. By dedicating funds to upgrade our early warning systems, Apache is saving lives, and we are extremely grateful."

"The City of Woodward is an important hub for Apache's operations in western Oklahoma and home for some of our employees," said Rob Johnston, Central Region vice president. "Our hearts go out to the families who were impacted by this devastating event. This donation is one way for Apache to help the community rebuild, rebound and be prepared for future tornadoes."

About Apache

Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Egypt, the United Kingdom North Sea, Australia and Argentina. From time to time, Apache posts announcements, updates and investor information, in addition to copies of all press releases, on its website, www.apachecorp.com.

Good for them, the city's going to be hurting for money just from all the damage. This is going to get the sirens back much quicker I imagine.

Outlook tonight based on the evening's run of models...

Next few days a lot of instability around but strong cap, no lifting mechanism, and relatively dry air will mean very little in the way of any storm formation. If anything would form it would be severe but the risk right now looks like less than 10% through Friday..except maybe for far NW OK Wednesday evening. There are signs that storms could form in this area, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Next main chance of storms is on Saturday. With this in mind our weather chat room, at the new address http://www.weatherspotlight.com, is setup to open at Noon on Saturday. Those of you that have already sent me your contact information will get invite about a day before or see it on your CoverItLive accounts for upcoming events. I'll keep the rooms up for roughly a week at a time during peak weather season and then scale it back some. Any questions on the chat room or wanting to get an invite shoot me a message. Now the forecast...

Saturday Outlook
Moderate to high instability along and east of I-44, mainly from OKC to the southwest. Chance for storms will increase by 4-5PM and increase through the evening. CAPE expected to be around 2000 j/kg in the main risk area. Moisture should be pretty good with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s southeast of I-44, with the highest moisture content over South Central OK. Right now it appears that storms will start in Southwest/South Central OK. Storms will continue to form along I-44 from Tulsa to south of Wichita Falls. Should see a line form and move east overnight and still be ongoing Sunday morning. Right now looks like a decent SLIGHT RISK day with the main threat being very large hail and damaging winds.

Sunday Outlook
Outside of ongoing activity over NE OK, it does appears additional storms will fire up across NW OK by evening. We should see storms continue to form over Western OK and move NE over night. Instability doesn't look all that high on Sunday, though there will be moderate amounts around. A good rainfall should be see over Northern OK overnight, but the overall risk doesn't look significant right now. Looks like a typical marginal severe day with the main risk being hail in the strongest storms.

Monday Outlook
Moderate instability will exist over much of Northern and far Western OK. Chance of storms looks low however and mostly just over Northern OK. Nothing really stick out about this day yet.

Tuesday (May 1st) Outlook
Chance of storms will be late, mainly after day, as it appears now. Large complex over Kansas with isolated activity through W OK and the TX Panhandle along the dryline. Instability will be high to very high with CAPE values over 2500-3000 j/kg across Western OK. This does appears to carry the risk of most modes of severe weather and will need to be watched. Typical SLIGHT RISK day as it appears now. Storms will move east over night and should be into Central OK by day break.

Wednesday (May 2nd) Outlook
Storms continue over OK and will uptick some through the day. Locally heavy rain. Instability will be low to moderate so severe risk doesn't look all that impressive right now. Boundary will move through OK during the day keeping this in check.

Extended Outlook
Thursday (May 3rd) Outlook: Boundary retreats north, moisture returns and instability rebuilds. Moderate to high instability across the state with the best chance of storms over Western into Central OK off the dryline. Severe Risk: Low

Friday (May 4th) Outlook: Low to moderate instability, boundary in the area, and decent chance of rain/storms. Main severe threat looks to be north of Oklahoma this day. Severe Risk: Marginal

Saturday (May 5th) Outlook: Same story as Friday, not much to add. Severe Risk: Marginal

Sunday (May 6th) Outlook: Instability and moisture increases as the dryline continues to bounce around the panhandles and Western OK. Slight chance of storms along it late. Severe Risk: Low

Monday (May 7th) Outlook: Storm system starts to move into the area, front will drop south from Kansas and Dryline move east a bit. Moderate to High Instability across Southwest to Northeast OK. Storms appear to start over NW OK and then fill in and move SE over the state through the night. Severe Risk: Low

Tuesday (May 8th) and Beyond: End of the forecast window shows risks dropping and things drying out. Of course as we get further along in the forecast window the accuracy gets really low, so this will be completely different in a couple runs more than likely.

Storms that have fired up tonight due the high instability shouldn't get too out of control. Could see the same tomorrow as mentioned above, but mostly NW.

SPC has brought in the slight risk officially to far NW OK tomorrow. This is a hatched area pointing out the chance for some significant severe weather. Very large hail and tornadoes are the main threat.

Outlook for this evening. Could see a small complex of storms develop over the Northern Panhandles and SW KS. The complex would then move ESE/SE into NW OK by 10PM and then start to die out around 1-2AM. Nothing dramatic right now.

Was anyone aware that it is Friday the 13th?

Yes, it was back on that awful day earlier this April. Interestingly, enough, like Stillwater, Norman can now claim it has had the luck of having a destructive tornado occur on Friday the 13th. Stillwater's was on June 13th, 1975. Only one heavily destructive tornado has happened there since then.

Slight Risk today mainly far North and NE OK. Chances start to go up tomorrow.

for Saturday

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
...OK/N TX WWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...
TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DURING THE DAY ALONG
STALLING FRONT FROM NRN TX INTO THE OZARKS/SRN MO DUE TO A CAPPING
INVERSION AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREAFTER...A STRENGTHENING
SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
SRN PLAINS FROM N TX AND OK INTO THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/STRONG WAA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS EXTENDING
FROM NM ACROSS OK/SRN KS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE /40-50 KT/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM S-N WITH MODELS NOW INDICATING STRONGER
MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS PRODUCING
SEVERE HAIL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM
CENTRAL/SWRN OK INTO ERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THUS...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION SAT NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SAT EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS THREAT. IF
STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEN THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

Mike Morgan say Tornadoes are possible on Sunday

CH 9 Gary England said that we may have severe weather and heavy rain late Saturday into Sunday and that Sunday looks turbulent.

Slight Risk today is along I-44 and about 75 miles on either side of it from Tulsa to the TX border.

Latest SPC Outlook:

...SRN PLAINS...
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF W TX EXTENDING NEWD
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
DAY. NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
--TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S-- WITHIN A SLY LOW LEVEL FETCH OF
LOWER-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY TOWARDS 00Z.
SUITE OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HOWEVER TEND TO LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE TO ISOLD CHANCES UNTIL THE MID-EVENING HOURS AS A CNTRL TX
LLJ INTENSIFIES /40 KTS/ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. DESPITE
COVERAGE/CAPPING CONCERNS...A BELT OF 35-50 KT H5 FLOW OVERTOP THE
REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESP. NEAR
THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION OVER WRN N-CNTRL TX/SWRN OK. A LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED
DAYTIME SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF THE
FRONT WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR TOWARDS DUSK MAY LEND AN
ISOLD TORNADO RISK WHERE SURFACE T/TD SPREADS LOWER BEFORE MLCINH
INCREASES...ACTING TO TEMPER THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...TSTM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE /GENERALLY N OF
THE RED RIVER/ WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Svr watch is now active for most of central and sw ok until 2 am. Storms starting fire in nw texas. Chat is open.

Watch area is being monitored for upgrade to tornado watch after dark as conditons improve for tornadic development.