It's at http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html and he's on-line there right now.

It's at http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html and he's on-line there right now.

Thanks, Jim. I'm trying to get moderated, lol. He's catching 'em faster than he can string 'em at the moment.

Yep; I'm lurking there but don't have anything to add to the stream...

Its easier to come back down the dry line as storms develop, I could understand them heading towards Kansas early...if you see the way the storms form last night, all they have to do is just come back down south west and have a field day.

I was having high hopes as long as the sun wasnt completely out....now that Im blinded (lol) I dont feel so good anymore...got that weird (hope its media induced) feeling....

Thanks, Jim. I'm trying to get moderated, lol. He's catching 'em faster than he can string 'em at the moment.

Is there something we're supposed to do to get added? I posted a message a few minutes ago but it's not up. I realize venture probably isn't here, but some of you know that place better than I do.
Edit: Never mind. :P Patience is a virtue, it seems, I do not possess!

Has it begun to clear west and maybe even south of the metro area? Still more or less overcast in Edmond.

Looks to be more of a wind/hail/heavy rain threat for central and eastern OK now..

Looks to be more of a wind/hail/heavy rain threat for central and eastern OK now..

Yeah, all the fuss and it'll end up being nothing more than boomy thunderstorms and rain...good sleeping weather. And maybe 25 metro area HS proms cancelled, lol.

From all indications currently available, this was a *huge* bust for central OK. Very disappointed in this outcome.

Yeah, all the fuss and it'll end up being nothing more than boomy thunderstorms and rain...good sleeping weather. And maybe 25 metro area HS proms cancelled, lol.

From all indications currently available, this was a *huge* bust for central OK. Very disappointed in this outcome.
How can you be disappointed with a potential life-threatening crisis not materializing as predicted? I prefer a "bust" over the alternative. To say otherwise is selfish and completely insensitive to people who would suffer loss of property or potentially life had what they were saying could happen did in fact occur. I never understand that mindset.

Shame on the city of Mustang for NOT turning on the sirens last night

Ditto. My son called from Yukon and woke me up, they were going off there. I'd rather be cautious than oblivious.

What the...? "Disappointed"?

For those not following the chat, here is a quick update. Things should be calm for the next couple of hours. Storms are expected to fire, according to HRRR, in the Texas PH and form a very large squall line of supercells that will march east. We could see bows develop in the line and raise the risk of widespread damaging winds. Very large hail and embedded tornadoes will also be with this line. It looks like it will enter the OKC metro area around 2AM and clear around 4-5AM. Set your weather radios up and be prepared.

Ditto. My son called from Yukon and woke me up, they were going off there. I'd rather be cautious than oblivious.

I understood that the vast majority of the damage took place in Oklahoma City north of Mustang. If sirens weren't going off there that was on OKC.

When they started hyping it up I knew then it was going to be a bust.

When they started hyping it up I knew then it was going to be a bust.

Not quite a bust...it just shifted to our north. Wichita is going to get slammed now.

When they started hyping it up I knew then it was going to be a bust.

That's the kind of busts I like. Maybe I can get a good night's sleep tonight.

I"m hearing agreement now with what Venture said earlier. There is another line of storms forming in the Texas panhandle that may move into the OKC metro around 4 - 5 AM. It's not supposed to be as likely to produce tornadoes though.

Ugh, I am just heartbroken for Wichita. Sickening feeling.

I'm hearing now that it's a huge catastrophic tornado in Wichita. I'm praying for them.

When they started hyping it up I knew then it was going to be a bust.

Going by the "filtered" reports...84 tornadoes, 48 damaging wind events, 106 severe hail reports...238 total severe reports. This is no bust, especially with the severe/damaging squall line now underway and tornadoes still occurring north.

This one verified, albeit the initial placement was too far south. Of course if the cap broke and we had more convergence it would have been a completely different story.

I think, all things considered, we got off very lucky today...

I think, all things considered, we got off very lucky today...

lets hope it stays that way!

How can you be disappointed with a potential life-threatening crisis not materializing as predicted? I prefer a "bust" over the alternative. To say otherwise is selfish and completely insensitive to people who would suffer loss of property or potentially life had what they were saying could happen did in fact occur. I never understand that mindset.

Hmmmmmmm... Lets see. Proms were cancelled. That affects businesses. Do you realize how much of a mad rescheduling it was today and what it costs for those businesses to reschedule everything having to do with those events? All for everything we haven't seen tonight?? I understand the conscious decision to save lives but nothing came out of the concern for the lack of bad weather. There were people not shopping today cause there was suppose to be Tornadoggedon. Another false prophecy...

Hmmmmmmm... Lets see. Proms were cancelled. That affects businesses. Do you realize how much of a mad rescheduling it was today and what it costs for those businesses to reschedule everything having to do with those events? All for everything we haven't seen tonight?? I understand the conscious decision to save lives but nothing came out of the concern for the lack of bad weather. There were people not shopping today cause there was suppose to be Tornadoggedon. Another false prophecy...

I'm sorry but this isn't an exact science. Can you imagine what the outcry would have been if Oklahoma had massive tornadoes and we weren't given sufficient warning? There is currently a tornado heading towards Woodward. They probably appreciate a little warning. Oklahoma has had too much experience with this type of weather to be lax in our concern.

Confirmed Tornado on the ground SW of Woodward. This line is fragmenting and we are in a very favorable environment for tornadoes still. This was meant to be a late show folks, do not let your guard up.

AT 1213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND


STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH A HISTORY OF


PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT


55 MPH.

OKC is worried about proms and people who want to shop so don't scare anyone who might get killed. And there are reports of injuries and serious damage in Woodward now. Do you suppose they are worried about proms?

Hmmmmmmm... Lets see. Proms were cancelled. That affects businesses. Do you realize how much of a mad rescheduling it was today and what it costs for those businesses to reschedule everything having to do with those events? All for everything we haven't seen tonight?? I understand the conscious decision to save lives but nothing came out of the concern for the lack of bad weather. There were people not shopping today cause there was suppose to be Tornadoggedon. Another false prophecy...

This has been read several times to my friends tonight. We have spent a considerable amount of time laughing and shaking our heads at how petty people are.

This has been read several times to my friends tonight. We have spent a considerable amount of time laughing and shaking our heads at how petty people are.

Maybe OKC thinks that nothing is important unless it affects him directly.

I'm sorry but this isn't an exact science. Can you imagine what the outcry would have been if Oklahoma had massive tornadoes and we weren't given sufficient warning? There is currently a tornado heading towards Woodward. They probably appreciate a little warning. Oklahoma has had too much experience with this type of weather to be lax in our concern.

Read my post again please. What will hit here will be at 5am. All the proms in the OKC metro area could have been tonight. I don't have a lack of care for what's going on in Woodward. Don't be so sensitive. Im staying up all night to be weather aware. Geesh!

Hmmmmmmm... Lets see. Proms were cancelled. That affects businesses. Do you realize how much of a mad rescheduling it was today and what it costs for those businesses to reschedule everything having to do with those events? All for everything we haven't seen tonight?? I understand the conscious decision to save lives but nothing came out of the concern for the lack of bad weather. There were people not shopping today cause there was suppose to be Tornadoggedon. Another false prophecy...

Actually yes, I have thought about it. Halls, event centers, hotels were all booked for tonight. If they're filled up on weekends with other like events - how will they ever have their proms? I thought about about all the guys and girls getting their hair done today, fingernails painted just right, clothes all fixed and ready for the big night, all awaiting a milestone coming-of-age event. I thought about it and I think it has got to be a major disappointment and a real crusher for all involved that the events were cancelled. Yes, I thought about it. But, it was the right decision and those that made those decisions are to be commended. As Ljbab said, we've seen the destruction and aftermath of storms that were set-up with conditions just like we have had today and this evening. It was the right decision to cancel. But yes, it's sad for such an event to be cancelled. Welcome to Real Life 2.0; it's nothing like the years they're saying goodbye to.

Mmmkay. Well, I'm not sure about prom where you are from, but where I am from, prom festivities continued well into the night. My school hosted an after-prom that went until 6am. I'm sure you can comprehend the liability issues here. Not to mention, many schools are opened as public shelters.

But, gosh darn it, lots of businesses sure did miss out!

Except the grocery stores. From what I saw, they fared quite well today.

Its also nothing like the years they'll wake up to tomorrow. I didn't say it was a bad call. So quick to judge someone here. So know why Thunder didn't post for months. Everyone is so quick to hang people on here..

Wish everyone the best of luck this early morning...

Read my post again please. What will hit here will be at 5am. All the proms in the OKC metro area could have been tonight. I don't have a lack of care for what's going on in Woodward. Don't be so sensitive. Im staying up all night to be weather aware. Geesh!

So you think that when we first started hearing warnings about severe weather today they could have said that it was fine to have any activities without worrying tonight? They weren't and couldn't give exact times for storms to form. People who are responsible for the safety of those at proms or anywhere have to err on the side of caution. Just don't start blaming anyone for cancellations. I'm not saying you don't care, you just weren't using reasonable statements in your concern.

Its also nothing like the years they'll wake up to tomorrow. I didn't say it was a bad call. So quick to judge someone here. So know why Thunder didn't post for months. Everyone is so quick to hang people on here..

Wish everyone the best of luck this early morning...

If you were referring to my post, I said that I did think about it. I truly felt bad for the tons of kids that were sorely disappointed. I can imagine, I went to the prom in my day too. I wasn't judging you at all. I was expressing my understanding, while at the same time coming to a different conclusion on the wisdom of the cancellations. Nothing personal.

Hell I even posted on Facebook that I hope everyone is alright tonight and that was before stones were cast due to my insensitive post. We have a customer who got his tuxedo from us for the Woodward prom. Especially hoping that him and everyone he knows are fine.

Now there is word that they are calling out the national guard to Woodward. The situation is not good there.

Woodward tornado

http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/545824_366314996752242_258406517543091_1138410_186 1196095_n.jpg

Scary.

Now there is word that they are calling out the national guard to Woodward. The situation is not good there.

Not good. Less than five minutes ago, this from the Enid newspaper: Woodward Takes Direct Hit from Tornado (http://enidnews.com/featuredstory/x2108298909/Woodward-takes-a-direct-hit-from-tornado).

They're now saying the main threat for the rest of the night is some strong straight line winds in the area of 60 to 80 mph along with large hail.

They're now saying the main threat for the rest of the night is some strong straight line winds in the area of 60 to 80 mph along with large hail.

Somebody from the Woodward News got some video of this rain-wrapped tornado as it was hitting the town. You can see it for just an instant in a lightning flash - but it was a very large tornado. http://newsok.com/video-from-woodward-news-tornado-hits-woodward/multimedia/video/1562585031001

They're now saying four fatalities from the Woodward area.

Now saying four deaths in Woodward.

RE: post #209

E4PHaDQZYd8

Here is a quick look at the results from yesterday. Unfortunately it does appear we did lose 5 people early this morning in Woodward.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120414_rpts_filtered.gif

I'm sorry but this isn't an exact science. Can you imagine what the outcry would have been if Oklahoma had massive tornadoes and we weren't given sufficient warning? There is currently a tornado heading towards Woodward. They probably appreciate a little warning. Oklahoma has had too much experience with this type of weather to be lax in our concern.

They've been hawking this event for over a week. I started hearing about a 'dangerous tornado outbreak' in central Oklahoma while I was in South Carolina last week. NWS was also using their new "dances with focus groups" enhanced bad language to make people uber-aware that this was going to be a worse than normal occurrence.

They get props for KS and NWOK, but they fail utterly and completely for central OK, where it was a great big bubkes, and, say what you will about the inexactness of the science, it's that very fact, *and* the fact that they completely cried wolf in Central OK that lost them huge amounts of credibility, especially among the age group that was sitting home last night watching corsages wilt and seeing limo security deposits unrefunded. THAT will be remembered long after the events of yesterday.

I knew around noon yesterday when the TV guys started hedging a little bit that they had gotten sucked into their own hype vortex and were having to walk it back. By 7:30PM or so, I turned off the NOAA radio and stuck it back in the closet and (rightfully) called the whole thing a bust, and 'rejoined regular programming.'

I know all the arguments. Yes, Woodward and Wichita are tragedies, but for central OK, there was a great deal of undue alarm for no really solid reason, and the only tornado they got was on a day it wasn't even really supposed to happen.

An inexact science it may well be, but it needs to be a hell of a lot more 'exacter' than what we got yesterday. You can't have that 'out' both ways, i.e., you can't say "it's an inexact science, *BUT* stop what you're doing, cancel your plans and hunker down, and be sure to listen to what we say", and then the next day use the inexact science canard as a napkin to wipe egg off your faces.

You know what, though? If they hadn't canceled those events, and what happened to the north of us was here, then people would have been crying about how irresponsible the schools were for allowing the events to happen. It's a lose-lose. The businesses had their money; it's not like they pay for these things AFTER the event. It's also the risk you take have an event at any point in the spring in this state. Meteorologists aren't clairvoyant. The NWS got this right; there was a tornado outbreak. We should be THANKFUL it wasn't us, not upset because a few events were canceled. It's happened to this city enough times that we should sympathize for those who were affected instead of being selfish and whiny.

They've been hawking this event for over a week. I started hearing about a 'dangerous tornado outbreak' in central Oklahoma while I was in South Carolina last week. NWS was also using their new "dances with focus groups" enhanced bad language to make people uber-aware that this was going to be a worse than normal occurrence.

They get props for KS and NWOK, but they fail utterly and completely for central OK, where it was a great big bubkes, and, say what you will about the inexactness of the science, it's that very fact, *and* the fact that they completely cried wolf in Central OK that lost them huge amounts of credibility, especially among the age group that was sitting home last night watching corsages wilt and seeing limo security deposits unrefunded. THAT will be remembered long after the events of yesterday.

I knew around noon yesterday when the TV guys started hedging a little bit that they had gotten sucked into their own hype vortex and were having to walk it back. By 7:30PM or so, I turned off the NOAA radio and stuck it back in the closet and (rightfully) called the whole thing a bust, and 'rejoined regular programming.'

I know all the arguments. Yes, Woodward and Wichita are tragedies, but for central OK, there was a great deal of undue alarm for no really solid reason, and the only tornado they got was on a day it wasn't even really supposed to happen.

An inexact science it may well be, but it needs to be a hell of a lot more 'exacter' than what we got yesterday. You can't have that 'out' both ways, i.e., you can't say "it's an inexact science, *BUT* stop what you're doing, cancel your plans and hunker down, and be sure to listen to what we say", and then the next day use the inexact science canard as a napkin to wipe egg off your faces.

Actually, from what I can tell happened, the situation shifted during the day. Conditions over north Texas/south central OK, didn't move in the way they expected and they started revising their models pretty quickly as the storms were pushed north east. The updated threat models that were coming out showed the threat for OKC considerably lower than the earlier in the week apocalyptic ones and the news channels did say so. A tornado watch was never issued for OKC, the worst I heard was one of the local news guys worrying about the storms down in Lubbock.

The NWS/SPC called a major tornado outbreak 8 days out(They issued a D8 outlook last week) and ended up being a few hundred miles too big in their prediction of dangerous areas and you're going to claim they have egg on their faces? I think Woodward and Wichita just show that they were in the right. If someone in OKC blew their Saturday because they were paralyzed by fear, that's their problem not the SPC's. We get enough warning these days that as long as you make sure the basics are ready(Water, some fresh batteries and a place to go) you don't have to drop everything 10 hours in advance.

Actually, from what I can tell happened, the situation shifted during the day. Conditions over north Texas/south central OK, didn't move in the way they expected and they started revising their models pretty quickly as the storms were pushed north east. The updated threat models that were coming out showed the threat for OKC considerably lower than the earlier in the week apocalyptic ones and the news channels did say so. A tornado watch was never issued for OKC, the worst I heard was one of the local news guys worrying about the storms down in Lubbock.

The NWS/SPC called a major tornado outbreak 8 days out(They issued a D8 outlook last week) and ended up being a few hundred miles too big in their prediction of dangerous areas and you're going to claim they have egg on their faces? I think Woodward and Wichita just show that they were in the right. If someone in OKC blew their Saturday because they were paralyzed by fear, that's their problem not the SPC's. We get enough warning these days that as long as you make sure the basics are ready(Water, some fresh batteries and a place to go) you don't have to drop everything 10 hours in advance.

Big thumbs up to this guy.

I can at least say that now I have all of my tornado stuff in place for next time. Because you know this won't be the only day that we have tornadoes in Oklahoma. The safe room is more clear now, and the cat crates are updated with current information. Sometimes you just need a little push to get things done.

Everything shifted to the north during the day but the people who watched the weather people hype it up all week and then witness dozens of events cancellee and changed their plans will remember and might not be as aware next time when the metro is really under the gun. That's my main worry that the hype machine will generate.

Remember Norman was hit Friday and our fellow Oklahomans in Woodward were hit last night with several fatalities.

How to NOT chase tornadoes:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCQVPYDZSgI

WARNING: LANGUAGE!

Let's just count ourselves way lucky and thank the weather guys for watching out for our families...Would rather the exaggerate than downplay

There's two entirely competing schools of thought here. Suspect something dangerous is ahead, but opt not to warn, and you're excoriated for not having spoken up; warn, then find the warning to fizzle, and you're an alarmist.

Unfortunately, there's no one, perfect, right answer. Both sides are right. And both sides are wrong.

I was up with Venture and several others late into the night last night on Venture's site mostly for the curiosity and education, and to contribute in some small way. Those aspects were, of course, was tempered by the loss of life in Woodward and the destruction in Wichita. So the warnings that came out early last week were certainly not entirely without merit. On the other hand, it was clear that the central OK area was being specifically warned many days in advance, and that didn't pan out. Unfortunately, like many things, reality on the "right" decision ends up being somewhere in the middle.

I strongly suspect (and I stress this is purely my opinion) that the SPC folks will be much more careful about issuing high risk warnings several days out - not because of proms or businesses, but because the whole business of predicting weather is so frightfully consumed with variables that its astonishing they can get as much right as they can, and making strident warnings about loss of life five days out is pushing the envelope of what can be predicted reliably. Trip one domino the wrong way and it can blow up a chain of forecasts, to say nothing of the fact that the different mathematical/computer models are based on systems with different biases that try to allow for at least a handful of those variables, and when they differ, its up to the human folks to make a judgment call on which forecast they think is more reliable given the circumstances. That's half science and half black art. The risk is that if you make a dire prediction well in advance, and it busts, people dismiss the whole process just as some have here. That's not just unfortunate, its dangerous for the next time when the variables don't shift on such a late basis, and the forecast ends up being right, yet people don't listen because it was wrong the last time it was so alarming.

The one thing I noticed as I started paying attention yesterday morning that told me things had changed was the steady Twitter feed indicating the storm chasers were making a beeline from Oklahoma City and vicinity up to central Kansas. It was at or near that time that the SPC folks had issued revised guidance indicating the high risk area was shifted to a region along and north of I-40. Not all the storm chasers waited or needed that guidance; they could read the same info and draw the same inferences on the strength of the cap, wind patterns, location of the dryline, absence of initiation in SW OK, etc., and when the day hit, Kansas had clearly become the primary target. The SPC folks caught up - in reality, they only missed their days-in-advance target by a few hundred miles, which from a technical perspective is pretty darned impressive.

What's it all mean? Hopefully, the folks with the severe forecast center will assess how they built the forecasts, how things changed, and then try as best they can to assess the public response and decide if putting out such strident warnings so far in advance - particularly in light of the way *many* schedules were altered on Saturday - is a wise plan for the future. I don't envy them that task.

The risk is that if you make a dire prediction well in advance, and it busts, people dismiss the whole process just as some have here. That's not just unfortunate, its dangerous for the next time when the variables don't shift on such a late basis, and the forecast ends up being right, yet people don't listen because it was wrong the last time it was so alarming.



Well done, and exactly right. The first and only thing that went into an interior closet as a result of this was my NOAA weather radio, and it went into the Garage Sale box. The reason people don't pay attention to the warnings isn't because they have the language wrong, it's because, to paraphrase Josh Billings, and others, "so much of what they say ain't so" for our particular area. That effect is just amplified by choosing words like "life-threatening" and it causes people, right or wrong, to dismiss the whole process.

Well done, and exactly right. The first and only thing that went into an interior closet as a result of this was my NOAA weather radio, and it went into the Garage Sale box. The reason people don't pay attention to the warnings isn't because they have the language wrong, it's because, to paraphrase Josh Billings, and others, "so much of what they say ain't so" for our particular area. That effect is just amplified by choosing words like "life-threatening" and it causes people, right or wrong, to dismiss the whole process.

It wasn't just NOOA NWS/SPC, it was every private model out there as well. The for-profits were just as emphatic about the threat.

I will probably type more when im not on this phone, but wanted to chime in. First off Dave is pretty spot on but I want to expand some about what transpired. Conditions in Oklahome were definitely near perfect for a significant event. That said, and I mentioned it many times before, high risks can bust because they are banked on a perfect setup cause all heck to break loose. If one thing is off, no matter how small, then the whole forecast can go out the window.

So what was it? A very weak but noticeable cap that appeared on the 17z sounding from Norman yesterday. It was very shallow and strong enough to keep a lid on things. Had we had a legitimate forcing mechanism over us it would have been on. The fuel and dynamics were there, just no lift. NAM and to an effect GFS always pushed a late event for us, but NAM was the late one. Even the models didn5 get things perfect though. HRRR still had issues until afternoon.

I have seen plenty of high and mod risks bust...it happen due to how perfect things have to fall for them to verify. However it is because of that potential why we have the higher risks. Did anyone fail? Not really. The high risk verified...but the southern tip didn't. They were off by 100ish miles...to me that isn't bad for something of this scale.

More later.

Nobody was "wrong." It is as much about mathematics as it is science. I never saw a prediction over 70% for the metro - maybe there was, but I didn't see it. Assuming it was at 70%, yes that's a significant risk, but...it goes without saying the same forecasters were saying that even at 70%, there was a 30% chance it would not happen. There were different percentages attached to the various outlined areas. So, when Ljbab said it "isn't an exact science," he is absolutely right. The forecasters, through the math, told us that. Nobody said 100% - so nobody was wrong.

You know what, though? If they hadn't canceled those events, and what happened to the north of us was here, then people would have been crying about how irresponsible the schools were for allowing the events to happen. It's a lose-lose. The businesses had their money; it's not like they pay for these things AFTER the event. It's also the risk you take have an event at any point in the spring in this state. Meteorologists aren't clairvoyant. The NWS got this right; there was a tornado outbreak. We should be THANKFUL it wasn't us, not upset because a few events were canceled. It's happened to this city enough times that we should sympathize for those who were affected instead of being selfish and whiny.

Right on. You can only do so much to inform the public when the majority are not interested in learning about science or the concept of mathmatical probability. They want yes or no answers. Thats not possible.

The SPC always talked about the level of uncertainity further south in their outlooks. Conditions were too prime not to issue a high risk. It doesn't help that you have people who leave out this paragraph when reposting SPC outlooks. Im looking at you Thunder. Lol

Look at what Margie Phelps tweeted about the 5 that died in the Woodward tornado...so disrespectful

http://www.traemcneely.com/2012/04/16/hate-filled-margie-phelps-of-westboro-baptist-church-tweets-disrespectful-message-about-5-killed-in-oklahoma-tornadoes/

Well done, and exactly right. The first and only thing that went into an interior closet as a result of this was my NOAA weather radio, and it went into the Garage Sale box. The reason people don't pay attention to the warnings isn't because they have the language wrong, it's because, to paraphrase Josh Billings, and others, "so much of what they say ain't so" for our particular area. That effect is just amplified by choosing words like "life-threatening" and it causes people, right or wrong, to dismiss the whole process.

So, what, they shouldn't say anything if they're not 100%? They should say, "Hey, there's a 70% chance of some kind of storm, but it might it might not be anything at all, so no worries"? The storms could have been life threatening and by making sure I understood that the stations and weather services ensured that my wife and I, who live on a second floor apartment, were paying close enough attention to the weather that if it turned bad we could get somewhere safe rather than hoping we had enough time once the sirens went off.

Did it end up happening that way? No, but I believe them when they say it could have and will the next time they give me such a warning. If you want ignore it and maybe not get the advance notice you need to potentially save your life, that's your prerogative.

Some other thoughts on comments made that I couldn't get to earlier.


They've been hawking this event for over a week. I started hearing about a 'dangerous tornado outbreak' in central Oklahoma while I was in South Carolina last week. NWS was also using their new "dances with focus groups" enhanced bad language to make people uber-aware that this was going to be a worse than normal occurrence.

Actually it was Central Plains which included Central Oklahoma. However several days out to know someone is going to happen with as much confidence as they had is pretty amazing. As far as new wording...SPC hasn't adopted anything new. There are 5 local WFOs in the Central Plains (Norman is not one) that are using new phrasing and their local warnings included it.


They get props for KS and NWOK, but they fail utterly and completely for central OK, where it was a great big bubkes, and, say what you will about the inexactness of the science, it's that very fact, *and* the fact that they completely cried wolf in Central OK that lost them huge amounts of credibility, especially among the age group that was sitting home last night watching corsages wilt and seeing limo security deposits unrefunded. THAT will be remembered long after the events of yesterday.

The high risk area was huge. Could they have scaled it back earlier? Sure. However initiation time was still uncertain for SW/Central OK - I refer back to my earlier post on what happened. Did they cry wolf? No. That would be warning for something when the possibility didn't exist. It did, but thanks to a stubbornly weak cap it didn't. If anything the ultra hype by the local media might have over done it, but again as had been said...if something did manage to pop and set off the chain reaction we would have been singing a different tune.


I knew around noon yesterday when the TV guys started hedging a little bit that they had gotten sucked into their own hype vortex and were having to walk it back. By 7:30PM or so, I turned off the NOAA radio and stuck it back in the closet and (rightfully) called the whole thing a bust, and 'rejoined regular programming.'

We'll turn to you for future weather forecasts since you are amazingly superior to everyone else. /bow


I know all the arguments. Yes, Woodward and Wichita are tragedies, but for central OK, there was a great deal of undue alarm for no really solid reason, and the only tornado they got was on a day it wasn't even really supposed to happen.

Again, comments like these just show how naive and how much you lack in understanding of the setup yesterday. This is further backed up by a flat out uneducated comment that a tornado occurred on a day it wasn't suppose to happen...yet we had a risk of severe weather, we had a tornado watch, and even had a heightened risk of tornadoes that day in storms that did develop. It wasn't really a shocking development. I guess selective memory?


An inexact science it may well be, but it needs to be a hell of a lot more 'exacter' than what we got yesterday. You can't have that 'out' both ways, i.e., you can't say "it's an inexact science, *BUT* stop what you're doing, cancel your plans and hunker down, and be sure to listen to what we say", and then the next day use the inexact science canard as a napkin to wipe egg off your faces.

Like I said already, it verified very well. Granted the southern tip of the High Risk didn't and the Northern section wasn't exactly dense with severe reports. The outlook area covered the area with the greatest potential for severe weather. If we had better convergence to push through the weak cap, it would have been a completely different story for the rest of Oklahoma. If weather forecasting really gets this far under your skin, perhaps it would be best for you to just ignore it and the discussions surrounding it and move on. Or on the flip side take the initiative to ask the question about why something turned out a certain way to understand how it all went down. Trashing the forecasters for not getting it 100% right for every single area of the risk area is just a pathetic copout of someone that just wants to bitch and moan but really take no initiative to educate themselves.