http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

FRI APR 13 AND SAT APR 14.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

That doesnt give enough information as to how widespread we are expecting. Will it be like last night just sporadic cells or will it be a full on tornadic supercells everywhere with multiple tornadoes on the ground at any given time?

That doesnt give enough information as to how widespread we are expecting. Will it be like last night just sporadic cells or will it be a full on tornadic supercells everywhere with multiple tornadoes on the ground at any given time?

Someone who is far more qualified than I would need to answer that question but I get the feeling that the potential is there for a much more serious event than what we saw last night??????

If nothing else it’s going to move into a more populated area... It could impact more people.

These are 2 links to keep an eye on as forecast will become more focused each day.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Yeah, I am already well informed on the NWS site and SPC, Just wanting any model details as to what they are saying we might be in for. I am sure the local stations as well as NWS are waiting before putting out any strongly worded headlines yet. Just wanted to get an overall feel so I can prepare accordingly. Thanks Guys...

Yeah, I am already well informed on the NWS site and SPC, Just wanting any model details as to what they are saying we might be in for. I am sure the local stations as well as NWS are waiting before putting out any strongly worded headlines yet. Just wanted to get an overall feel so I can prepare accordingly. Thanks Guys...

I got a couple free days...so I'll be sure to type up a more in depth discussion after the 00Z runs tonight.

I got a couple free days...so I'll be sure to type up a more in depth discussion after the 00Z runs tonight.

Thanks Venture, I gotta figure out the best plan for Friday and this weekend. I have to uncover the cellar in my garage still hopefully we wont need it but you know how it goes around Oklahoma

Large area of heavy rain and storms moving through Northern OK. Gradually...and I mean very gradually LOL...moving to the southeast and south. Some isolated severe hail being detected. We'll see if they make the Metro for the morning rush. An outflow boundary is being pushed out over the OKC area and this can always set things up for additional storms later.

Main threat today will be well out west in the Panhandles. So not going to hit on much there. Tomorrow, different story. SPC's slight risk tomorrow is generally the western 1/4th of OK and this is a hatched area as well for potentially significant weather. Instability on Thursday will be moderate to high with CAPE values from 1500 to 2500 j/kg over much of Western OK. LI values aren't that extreme, generally -4 to -6. Wind profiles look favorable for rotating storms over most of Western & Central OK. Various indices are in alignment with severe parameters and generally indicate a supercell potential from 60-80% for any storm that does form. Storm motion is going to be SLLLLOOOWWW. Generally NE @ 10-15 mph. So if one of these gets over any location there is increased change of prolonged hail or other severe weather modes. Main threats then for Thursday will be tornadoes and very large hail over 2 inches.

Friday gets a bit closer to Central OK. SPC Slight Risk covers all over Western & Central OK with a hatched area from I-35 and back to the west...including most of the OKC Metro area. Instability looks better on this day with a general swatch of LI's from -4 to -8 and CAPE 2000+ j/kg generally from SW OK through Northern OK. Storm initiation would be during mid Afternoon to early evening, depending on the model you like (NAM holds things closer to the evening). Most parameters are in place for all models of severe weather and appear to be pretty favorable for tornadoes. Storm motion is looking like NE @ 30-35 mph...so more likely normal. There is a good likelihood that storms that do form would go severe this day. So main threat for Friday does look like tornadoes and hail again, a bit more likely than Thursday.

Saturday much of the same but a smidge to the east. There really isn't much to add here, the setup looks nearly identical to Friday. So if there isn't any ongoing storms to complicate things, Saturday could be another very active days. Main threats will be tornadoes and large hail.

Sunday...broken record, almost. Threat for severe weather this day but a little less certain which ongoing activity forecast by GFS. If things clear up, instabilities will climb and severe weather will be likely again for most of Oklahoma. Wind profiles look more linear which would push for more of a squall line like setup, however rogue storms going against the grain could rotate. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but tornado threat will be around as well. Heavy rain for Central OK also looks possible which some areas getting over an inch.

Monday...severe risk is down but heavy rain chances are up. Many areas over Eastern OK could see over an inch of rain. Could see some low topped hailers over NW and Northern OK in the late afternoon before sun down under the upper low.

Things calm down for a bit after Monday...but it won't last...
Friday Apr 20th - Some storm chances over Western and Northern OK.
Saturday April 21st - Slight Chance for storms Western/Central OK.
Sunday April 22nd - Chance of storms, some severe, Western OK.
Monday April 23rd - Storms over Western & Northern OK, severe probable.
Tuesday April 24th - Chance of storms NW OK.
Wednesday April 25th - Slight chance of storms most of OK.
Thursday April 26th - Slight chance of storms most of OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0490.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111935Z - 112030Z

COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN CO INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EARLIER STRATUS LAYER HAS ERODED...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
SUPPORTING A GRADUAL EROSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS A
GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A RECENT INCREASE IN VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS HAS BEEN NOTED ON VARIOUS 1915Z SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SUPPORTING RADAR IMAGERY. SEVERAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH UPSLOPE WINDS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THAT HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS WELL. SEVERAL SMALLER UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE
LIKELY BOLSTERING THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE LARGER SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...STORMS HAVE CURRENTLY BEEN SLOW TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.
WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER TROUGH...WITH STRENGTHENING IN LOW-LEVEL SELYS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...ROTATING STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

I am hearing that if Friday night and early morning Saturday storms clear out soon enough that Saturday could be particularly dangerous weather day for our area.

^^
That stinks. There are several large outdoor events, included the OU Spring Game, scheduled on Saturday.

Friday and Saturday both look fairly significant right now.

Friday and Saturday both look fairly significant right now.

Venture, I think you just channeled Gary England :smile:

Venture, I think you just channeled Gary England :smile:

Let me find a blue shirt and red tie... LOL

Will post a new forecast update here this evening/early morning.

New website is being pulled together a bit faster than I had planned. http://www.weatherspotlight.com is the new address. Live Event Chat is also loaded in to cover severe weather the next 3 days, though I won't be available for all of it.

Even Reed Timmer said it could be interesting...

Even Reed Timmer said it could be interesting...

He gets excited about water spinning in a 2-liter. :-P lol

Significant Outbreak Now Being Advertised by SPC...they have already gone Moderate Risk on the Day 3 Outlook. These situations can normally end up with a High Risk. Do not focus completely on Saturday though. We have two very potent days to get through as well.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.

...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012

He gets excited about water spinning in a 2-liter. :-P lol

I suspect during the winter he spends a lot of time flushing toilets....

This is how it appears now (subject to change):
Friday: storms forming in western OK moving into central OK by late evening
Saturday: storms forming in central OK and moving into eastern OK by late evening.
Sunday: storms form in eastern OK and move into Arkansas

Time for storm initiation is anyones guess but late afternoon is a good bet.

1206

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

For Saturday the SPC is saying

“THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS”…...

“ …..THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.”


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




The last Day 3 moderate was on April 27th, 2011 in Alabama.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

For Saturday the SPC is saying

“THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS”…...

“ …..THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.”


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The last Day 3 moderate was on April 27th, 2011 in Alabama.

Look like 3 posts back and the full outlook is there. :-P

Day 3 moderates are rare, but still a lot of time between now and then to get too hyped. Seen plenty moderate/high risk days bust, especially with good chances for ongoing convection Saturday morning.

KOCO 5 says be very weather alert this weekend especially on Saturday

Found an article today from local research/PhD student Patrick Marsh put together about Day 3 moderates.

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2011/04/spc-day-3-moderates-in-context/

It really puts things in perspective. The massive outbreak last April really was an anomaly and not the norm. On average, the days which had a Day 3 moderate risk (removing the ones that don't meet current mod risk criteria that Marsh pointed out) had an average of...

28 tornado reports
132 wind reports
85 hail reports
246 total severe weather reports

That is excluding the outbreak for last year. If we add in the April 27th massive outbreak the averages are...
61 tornado reports (292 on 4/27/11)
170 wind reports (438 on 4/27/11)
100 hail reports (207 on 4/27/11)
332 total severe weather reports (937 on 4/27/11)

So while any day when we have 28 tornadoes is a pretty active and impressive day, we need to be careful about comparing it at all to the April 27th outbreak.

Look like 3 posts back and the full outlook is there. :-P

Day 3 moderates are rare, but still a lot of time between now and then to get too hyped. Seen plenty moderate/high risk days bust, especially with good chances for ongoing convection Saturday morning.

Any convection Sat morning and/or leftovers from Fridays storms will greatly affect what happens Saturday. If it's sunny and warm around noon on Saturday then be very aware that there could be some violent storms in central OK.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

Any convection Sat morning and/or leftovers from Fridays storms will greatly affect what happens Saturday. If it's sunny and warm around noon on Saturday then be very aware that there could be some violent storms in central OK.

Exactly.

Lastly, lets keep the thread clean of the big Outlook graphics. They are in the first post of the thread since they change frequently. There is an option to save the image to the site instead of linking which will retain the original image for historical purposes. Otherwise the graphic becomes pointless in a few hours. :-)

What ever happened to Thunder?
He was always posting "stuff" on these weather threads

Any convection Sat morning and/or leftovers from Fridays storms will greatly affect what happens Saturday. If it's sunny and warm around noon on Saturday then be very aware that there could be some violent storms in central OK.

Yeah and tomorrow is nothing to yawn about either just because its a slight risk currently due to uncertainty. The hatched area between the metro and the border could very well be bumped up to moderate.

He gets excited about water spinning in a 2-liter. :-P lol

He said on his twitter that every day between now and Sunday looks like the apocalypse. Hyperbole much? lol

He said on his twitter that every day between now and Sunday looks like the apocalypse. Hyperbole much? lol

How else do you get on TV? Sensationalism. He is one of shining figures of everything that is wrong with the storm chasing community these days and why I stopped going out. It's all about how much they can shout and scream on camera and how close they can get to get the amazing shot. All while completely ignoring any concern for human life while driving like idiots and ignoring all traffic laws. Oh well. His show on Discovery got cancelled I believe so its a start. LOL

http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29517

Wow….. Thanks

^^
That stinks. There are several large outdoor events, included the OU Spring Game, scheduled on Saturday.

I have tickets for the OU spring football game and to the OU baseball game.
I really wish OU would move the football event up by at least 1 ½ hours if not more.

This would give most travelers a much better chance to get home before the storms hit.

There are several nearby large buildings such as the library and the Sarkeys Energy Center that have large deep underground places where people could shelter. At the very least they should keep those buildings open.
I will try and talk to the security people at OU tomorrow and see what they say.

I have tickets for the OU spring football game and to the OU baseball game.
I really wish OU would move the football event up by at least 1 ½ hours if not more.

This would give most travelers a much better chance to get home before the storms hit.

There are several nearby large buildings such as the library and the Sarkeys Energy Center that have large deep underground places where people could shelter. At the very least they should keep those buildings open.
I will try and talk to the security people at OU tomorrow and see what they say.

Many years ago, I was in the student union during a big spring storm with a real, live tornado went through Norman. They herded us down to the sub-basement of the student union, and while it was a little crowded, there was concrete everywhere you could see. We stayed there until they blew the all-clear.

My daughter is going to be very irritated with me as it appears I will have to nix her trip down to Mt. Scott on Saturday with her church group. Can't have her that far out of town with the apparent risk of big-time severe weather on the horizon that day...

Venture,

Is this situation escalating to the point that NWS might issue a PDS for Saturday?

Short Term Outlook

For Today...We'll be mostly socked in with clouds except for portions of NW OK and some areas of SW OK where there is some clearing. We could see this low cloud deck continue to thin out, but it may keep a lid on things for most of the afternoon across much of Western Oklahoma. Through the afternoon and early evening instability will continue to grow over much of Western and SW OK. CAPE values will reach generally around 2000 j/kg. We could see some scattered light rain develop over Central sections early with the cloud cover, but it is a very slight chance. Storms should be going along the dryline to the west in the panhandles and W Kansas by 5PM. Storms right now may not reach Western OK until after dark, however one model is hinting at development in SW OK late this afternoon. Parameters across Western OK will become very favorable for severe weather including tornadoes this evening. Large hail over 1.5" is also possible.

Storm motion today will be NE @ 30 mph.

Venture,

Is this situation escalating to the point that NWS might issue a PDS for Saturday?

Depends on the density of the severe events expected. It isn't out of the realm of possibility we could see a few of the tornado watch boxes be PDS tornado boxes. Way too early to really speculate though. The 12Z GFS has Saturday completely dry for the most part until after dark. Still a lot of things to get through.

New website is being pulled together a bit faster than I had planned. http://www.weatherspotlight.com is the new address. Live Event Chat is also loaded in to cover severe weather the next 3 days, though I won't be available for all of it.

This chat room is a very good place to get the feel of what the experts expect to happen. It’s filled with plenty of the latest information. I always want to learn more.
I did try asking a question that for some reason didn’t show up. I ask

Has OU given any consideration of moving the date or time of its spring football game?

I was able to post on the old weather chat board but do I need to register or be approved to have my post show up?
Thanks.

I have tickets for the OU spring football game and to the OU baseball game.
I really wish OU would move the football event up by at least 1 ½ hours if not more.

This would give most travelers a much better chance to get home before the storms hit.

There are several nearby large buildings such as the library and the Sarkeys Energy Center that have large deep underground places where people could shelter. At the very least they should keep those buildings open.
I will try and talk to the security people at OU tomorrow and see what they say.

I would be interested to know what they say. I am going to the spring game as well with some coworkers, and my entire time going to OU games I've been lucky to never have to seek shelter from rain, storms, etc. So I'm a bit clueless on their protocol, although you are correct that there is no shortages of basements on campus.

Should the weather forecast hold up Saturday and be as dire as it sounds, it may not be worth the risk to go down there. I would much rather be out $5 than $5000 from hail damage on my car or even worse.

This chat room is a very good place to get the feel of what the experts expect to happen. It’s filled with plenty of the latest information. I always want to learn more.
I did try asking a question that for some reason didn’t show up. I ask

Has OU given any consideration of moving the date or time of its spring football game?

I was able to post on the old weather chat board but do I need to register or be approved to have my post show up?
Thanks.

I doubt seriously OU would change the game time. I'll be very interested to see if the GFS model Venture mentions continues to keep us dry until after dark.

You know, I dearly, dearly love Oklahoma, have lived here almost all of my 47+ years, but spring storm/tornado season is the one thing I dread - especially after having seen the destruction in Birmingham from last year, and remembering what May 3, 99 was like...

I did start completely fresh this time around. So users who were previous approved to post unmoderated will just need to be approved again. I'm still working on the new website a bit today, but will jump into the chat and approve those who post. If you want to get a head start so you are approved for tomorrow/saturday, post a quick comment in the chat or toss me a PM here with your email address.

I would be interested to know what they say. I am going to the spring game as well with some coworkers, and my entire time going to OU games I've been lucky to never have to seek shelter from rain, storms, etc. So I'm a bit clueless on their protocol, although you are correct that there is no shortages of basements on campus.

Should the weather forecast hold up Saturday and be as dire as it sounds, it may not be worth the risk to go down there. I would much rather be out $5 than $5000 from hail damage on my car or even worse.

The prospect of hail or other significant car damage is much more concerning to me than being at risk from a tornado for precisely that reason - lots of good steel and concrete buildings with basements, but not too much protection for vehicles.

I did start completely fresh this time around. So users who were previous approved to post unmoderated will just need to be approved again. I'm still working on the new website a bit today, but will jump into the chat and approve those who post. If you want to get a head start so you are approved for tomorrow/saturday, post a quick comment in the chat or toss me a PM here with your email address.

Thanks.

I will make another post very soon that ask my question about the OU spring football game if that’s Ok?
“Has OU given any consideration of moving the date or time of its spring football game?”

Maybe it might put a bug in somebody’s ear?
I wish OU would move the time up if it looks like a better window of opportunity to play the game.

My post showed up, thanks

Hey ou48A, I sent a tweet to Kenny Mossman and asked him if the weather issues could affect Red-White game...will let you know what he says.

I would be interested to know what they say. I am going to the spring game as well with some coworkers, and my entire time going to OU games I've been lucky to never have to seek shelter from rain, storms, etc. So I'm a bit clueless on their protocol, although you are correct that there is no shortages of basements on campus.

Should the weather forecast hold up Saturday and be as dire as it sounds, it may not be worth the risk to go down there. I would much rather be out $5 than $5000 from hail damage on my car or even worse.

If you arrive early enough you could possible park in one of 2 parking garages.
I am taking 19 year old pick up that I almost wish would be destroyed.

I have been though 3 OU football rain / storm delays. One thing I have learned is that I need is a seat cushion because the concrete gets cold and very hard on my skinny old ass.

It will be late tomorrow night before I have a chance to talk with OU security officials. I would image that just the threat of severe weather will hold the crowd down by a lot especially if they don’t tweak the kickoff time.

If you arrive early enough you could possible park in one of 2 parking garages.
I am taking 19 year old pick up that I almost wish would be destroyed.

I have been though 3 OU football rain / storm delays. One thing I have learned is that I need is a seat cushion because the concrete gets cold and very hard on my skinny old ass.

It will be late tomorrow night before I have a chance to talk with OU security officials. I would image that just the threat of severe weather will hold the crowd down by a lot especially if they don’t tweak the kickoff time.

Heck, they didn't start moving kickoffs for weather until sometime in the last few years, so the whole notion is new to me. Been going to OU games since I was about eight, and the first time I remember weather affecting a game was when they started moving afternoon games to evening games due to heat. I got my worst sunburn ever as a kid at the 1978 OU-West Virginia game, where it HAD to be something like 110 deg. in the stadium.

I sat through the worst monsoon EVER at the 1983 OU Nebraska game, and I remember the PA announcer telling everyone that "hail was expected," but I don't think one soul that stadium (and they darned sure didn't evacuate LOL).

The Tech rain fiasco from last season was one of the worst home game weather experiences ever. Hope I never have to repeat it.

Newer reports I'm hearing are concurring with Venture, saying that storms may hold off til late afternoon Saturday but that's pretty iffy. I presume that's just other folks reading the GFS...

Hey ou48A, I sent a tweet to Kenny Mossman and asked him if the weather issues could affect Red-White game...will let you know what he says.

Thanks, that’s a good idea.
It may be a little soon to know if they need to tweak the kickoff time but they need to be aware of the threat.
Let us all know what he says.

Rick from KOCO 5 says is he very worried about Saturday Night storms because they could be some Night times tornadoes

Heck, they didn't start moving kickoffs for weather until sometime in the last few years, so the whole notion is new to me. Been going to OU games since I was about eight, and the first time I remember weather affecting a game was when they started moving afternoon games to evening games due to heat. I got my worst sunburn ever as a kid at the 1978 OU-West Virginia game, where it HAD to be something like 110 deg. in the stadium.

I sat through the worst monsoon EVER at the 1983 OU Nebraska game, and I remember the PA announcer telling everyone that "hail was expected," but I don't think one soul that stadium (and they darned sure didn't evacuate LOL).

The Tech rain fiasco from last season was one of the worst home game weather experiences ever. Hope I never have to repeat it.

Newer reports I'm hearing are concurring with Venture, saying that storms may hold off til late afternoon Saturday but that's pretty iffy. I presume that's just other folks reading the GFS...


I was at that West Virginia game too. I had worked outside all summer and had a good tan so I didn’t burn in spite of siting in the full sun on the east side. I was 20 years old and in pretty good condition so it didn’t bother me too much…… but they did haul a lot of people out of the stadium that day. This was back in the days of astro turf. It was just like playing on hot concrete, the heat radiated back into the stadium. The worst part of the day for me came on the drive home (120 mile trip) in a car that the air condition had broken on trip earlier that day.
Wilkinson, Switzer and others wanted the news of the games to be in the eastern newspapers for poll votes, so that’s why we didn’t have good quality permanent lights until the 1996 season.

I was at the 1983 OU Nebraska game too but perhaps the most uncomfortable I ever was at an OU home game was in 1988 when we played Nebraska in a steady rain and with temp’s of about 33 degrees. I stayed for the entire game as I always do (Neb won 7 to 3) but I now have much better rain/ game gear. I went to the 1993 OU NEB game in Lincoln. It was brutal. There was snow on the ground and in the stadium, kick off temps were about 13 degrees with a wind gusting to at least 40 but it seemed worse because of the way the wind funneled its self though the stadium. The stadium stay packed until the end. I bought artic rated gear for my wife and I after that game experience.

Mesoscale discussion 0500
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0334 pm cdt thu apr 12 2012

areas affected...nwrn tx through wrn ok

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 122034z - 122200z

severe storms could develop from nwrn tx through wrn ok during next
few hours. Supercells capable of very large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be the main threats.

The atmosphere has destabilized in moist axis east of the dryline
from wrn tx nwd through wrn ok with mlcape to 2000 j/kg and 7.5 c/km
mid level lapse rates. A weak boundary was also indicated from
n-cntrl nwwd through nwrn tx along the ok/tx border. North of this
feature winds are backed esely resulting in 200-250 m2/s2 effective
storm relative helicity. Low clouds continue to diminish from the
west within zone of deeper mixing across nwrn tx where a field of
cumulus and a few showers have developed. Isolated storms may
eventually form where this zone intersects the boundary from nwrn tx
into swrn ok. Effective bulk shear from 40-45 kt favors
supercells...and 0-1 km hodograph size will increase further as the
low level jet strengthens during the evening.

Watching some cells trying to go up over NW TX. Nothing getting established yet. Skies are clearing pretty good and CU development well underway. Stay tuned.

Smart move ....... OU has moved its baseball games new dates and times.

http://www.soonersports.com/sp.../041212aaa.html

This is not looking good on my end. Repeated tarot card readings continue to show extremely bad outlook for Oklahoma. I'm not going to go into much details as to not spark a statewide panic, but just be seriously prepared.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0503.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO FAR WESTERN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122306Z - 130100Z

AS A FOLLOW-UP TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 500...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OK
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCIPIENT SIGNS/INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AFTER A BOUT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR AT LEAST NEBULOUS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT...WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /EG. REFERENCE
CIRRUS ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND TECUMCARI NM WIND PROFILER/
IMPLY THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY
MIXED A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEDUCED SIGNS OF
INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ARCING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. ACCORDINGLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
DO REFLECT A DEGREE OF DEEPENING/THICKENING OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE
CDS AND TX/OK BORDER VICINITY.

WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE IMITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR APPEARS CONDITIONALLY MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH EACH INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
00Z-03Z. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
PROBABLE WITHIN AN UNSTABLE /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR /45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.

..GUYER.. 04/12/2012

i am worried that this storm can come and hit the metro late saturday and Early Sunday

No mention of tornadoes on the Norman hazardous outlook for days 2-7...This mean anything or just hesitant to mention them at this point?


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY...AND THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST WITH EACH DAY. SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TRANSITION TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT MAY OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
FRIDAY.

$$

CMS

No mention of tornadoes on the Norman hazardous outlook for days 2-7...This mean anything or just hesitant to mention them at this point?

They mention it in the forecast discussion. They'll probably start including it in the HWOs starting tomorrow as long as signs continue to point to an outbreak.

The forecast discussion seems to talk more of flooding than a tornado outbreak...Just wondering if our locals are getting a little too tornado happy at this point

This is not looking good on my end. Repeated tarot card readings continue to show extremely bad outlook for Oklahoma. I'm not going to go into much details as to not spark a statewide panic, but just be seriously prepared.

Bad weather needs heat for intense development, so be glad that it looks like the temps for the next few days won't get out of the 70s.

Got a new roof, gutters, windows & chimney caps two years ago. I'm not sure the insurance company will stay with me if I file another big claim.