http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full7.jpg

This goes right along with La nina fading away right now into normalcy.

That weather forecast looks like something you would see in Houston this time of year, not OKC.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME. ONE SUCH
VORT MAX MOVING INTO SRN AZ AS OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REACH
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MCVS NOW OVER THE
OH VALLEY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE
SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT. DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA. OTHERWISE
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OH AND
TN VALLEY AREAS.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

STEEP 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS
OVER THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WARMS SECTOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING MLCAPE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS REGION SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS DURING THE DAY OWING TO THE
WARM EML BASED BETWEEN 850-750 MB. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING WILL
AUGMENT MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE
PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS WRN TX WITH WEAKER SHEAR NWD INTO
OK AND KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A SMALL
WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE LATER IN THE EVENING AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION INCREASES.

SEVERE THREAT WITH NWD EXTENT INTO KS IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN
STRENGTH OF CAP AND LIMITED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK IN THIS REGION...BUT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15%.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...PRIMARY FOCUS IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE PLAINS REGION.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF A
LARGE/SHARP TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF WRN NOAM. AS THIS TROUGH
ADVANCES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EWD...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE -- AND LATER THE
COLD FRONT -- SHOULD FOCUS A SLOWLY-MOVING AXIS OF STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION FROM EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...THE PLAINS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS SHIFTING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- AIDED BY
THE WEAKENING CAP AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

AS STORMS DEVELOP...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THUS STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE. ATTM...MODEST MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN MOST AREAS/ AND ASSOCIATED/FAIRLY DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING COMBINED WITH SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT/DRYLINE SUGGEST EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS SHOULD
WARRANT 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES.

..GOSS.. 03/16/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0079_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM JUST SW OF LBB TO
JUST NE OF PAMPA. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL HELP
CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD FROM ERN NM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...BUT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD COALESCE INTO A CLUSTER
OR TWO ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Welcome change in drought outlook for our region, it is the first time in probably a year to 18 months that they are saying showing improvement verses drought being persistent/likely to intensify and having a couple spots in central and western Oklahoma not indicating drought present.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

Severe weather possible, if not likely, in the state Sunday and Monday. Outlook for the OKC metro is for things to be very close on timing with either day.

Sunday Main Risks: Very Large Hail (2"+), Damaging Winds, and a Couple Tornadoes.
Monday Main Risks: Very Large Hail (2"+), Localized Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY...EMERGING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MON MORNING. WHILE THE PRIMARY VORTICITY CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY...A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NRN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS
TX EARLY SUN AND INTO OK AND KS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THIS LEAD WAVE...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PERSIST WITH THE MAIN
BODY OF THE TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD INTO W TX AND A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER WY...CO AND NM. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD SLY FLOW WILL BRING LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS AS
FAR N AS IA AND IL. AN EML WILL EXIST OVER THE WARM
SECTOR...PREVENTING SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TO THE E...A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER...ENHANCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION
THIS EVENING OVER IL AND IND...WILL PERSIST AS IT TRAVELS EWD ALONG
AND N OF THE OH RIVER. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

...OK INTO ERN KS MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON...
LIFT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN TX INTO OK NEWD INTO SRN/ERN KS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST. EVEN SO...WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

...NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND KS...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT
21Z AS MASS FIELDS READJUST TOWARD THE WRN TROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE. WITH STRONG HEATING AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER W OF THE DRYLINE...A NARROW ZONE OF
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM WRN KS INTO THE ERN OK/TX
PANHANDLE SWD INTO NWRN TX. HERE...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRONGLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LARGE...PERHAPS VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. WHILE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS DO ENLARGE AFTER 00Z...SO WILL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH
BACKING SURFACE WINDS BRINGING RELATIVELY COOLER...YET STILL MOIST
AIR NWWD MEETING WITH THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG FORCING...BUT MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS HYBRID SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF WIND AND HAIL.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL FARTHER N INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY AREA
SWD/SSWWD TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS A VERY LARGE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL AFFECT BASICALLY THE ENTIRE ERN U.S. E OF THE MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF COUNTRY...WHILE A N-S COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A N-S ZONE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.

...MID MO VALLEY SSWWD TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS -- AND POSSIBLY ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL --
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION. THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER -- BEING
CARRIED CONTINUALLY NNEWD BY THE STRONG SLY/MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT --
SHOULD HINDER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...AND THUS LIKEWISE LIMIT
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL N OF THE SRN PLAINS WHERE LOWER
PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED.

THE FOCUS FOR GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FROM ROUGHLY ERN
KS/MO SWD -- PARTICULARLY INTO SERN OK/WRN MO AND SWD ACROSS E TX ON
THE SERN FRINGE OF ONGOING STORMS. AS AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
PUSHES MIXED-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS
REGION...STORMS WILL INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
PEAK HEATING.

AS STRONG /60 TO 70 KT/ SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING SSELY PRE-FRONTAL
WINDS...DEVELOPING STORMS WITHIN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR -- GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FORECAST IN THIS REGION. OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY LINEAR
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING FRONT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ALSO INCREASE GIVEN OVERALL
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION.

Extended Outlook...

Sun 3/18 - Severe Storms West 1/2, Temps 60s/70s.
Mon 3/19 - Severe Storms East 1/2, Temps 60s/70s.
Tue 3/20 - Rain/Storms East 1/2, Temps 50s/60s.
Wed 3/21 - Chance of Rain/Storms Central/South, Temps 40s-60s. Could be an interesting day with upper low overhead. Shear doesn't look insane right now, but could be a candidate for some low topped storms spinning up a few weak funnels.
Thu 3/22 - Rain/Storms most areas except fair East/West...Heaviest in Central, Temps 50s/60s. Much the same as Weds. Heavy rain possible.
Fri 3/23 - Mostly Dry, Temps 60s.
Sat 3/24 - Dry. Temps 70s.
Sun 3/25 - Dry with an outside chance of an isolated storm NW. Temps 70s.
Mon 3/26 - Mostly Dry, very slight chance of storms West - some severe if they form. Temps 70s.
Tue 3/27 - Chance of storms late Central, some severe. Temps 70s/80s.
Wed 3/28 - Chance of storms, mainly Central/South, some severe. Temps 70s/80s.
Thu 3/29 - Chance of storms, Central/East - some severe (it is Spring afterall). Temps 70s/80s.
Fri 3/30 - Chance of Rain west. Temps 60s/70s.
Sat 3/31 - Chance of rain/storms - mainly SW. Temps 60s/70s.
Sun 4/1 - Chance of rain/snow/sleet mix Central under upper load - rain elsewhere. Temps 40s/50s.
Mon 4/2 - Chance of rain/storms East and South. Temps 60s/70s.

Tornado Watch will be issued soon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0273.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181931Z - 182130Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

19Z VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TX S PLAINS E OF LBB AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN KS
THROUGH SWRN TX. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY WEAK MLCIN REMAINS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING REMAINING CAP WILL
QUICKLY ERODE AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST ACROSS AZ/NM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HEIGHT FALLS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RECENT
PROFILER DATA HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL FLOW STREAMING
INTO THE MCD AREA. GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM...ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE
MAIN THE THREAT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER FORCING ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION TOWARD 00Z...LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

..LEITMAN.. 03/18/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0080_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE
PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG
AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM BIG SPRING TX NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN
TX PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND BIG SPRING BY 21Z. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS GENERALLY AOB 20
F AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SRH THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.



TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

WT 0080
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

First severe storm is just to the SW of Childress moving NE. Could be SW OK with in the next 2-3 hours.

---

Update:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP
TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANGUM...HOLLIS...GRANITE...DUKE...GOULD...WILLOW. ..VINSON...
GOODLETT...BRINKMAN...HESTER...MADGE...MCKNIGHT...
MCQUEEN AND LAZARE.

Things are starting to spin a bit out there. First tornado warning for a rapidly rotating wall cloud producing a funnel just southeast of Guthrie, TX...about 75 miles SSE of Altus.

Two main areas of concern for the body of Oklahoma....
1) Cell in Crowell Co, TX. Rotating is picking up a bit, developing hook. Moving NE at 30 mph. It will cross the boarder into Jackson County in little over an hour.

2) Another is in Childress County, TX...moving NNE at around 30. Will cross into Oklahoma with in the hour near or just north of Hollis in Harmon County.

Storm #1 is now tornado warnings. Rotation is increasing in Storm #2 just north of Hollis.

Might see a tornado warning soon for Harmon and Greer counties. The rotation is pretty strong with the storm now.

Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
659 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

okc055-190030-
/o.con.koun.to.w.0002.000000t0000z-120319t0030z/
greer ok-
659 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

...a tornado warning remains in effect until 730 pm cdt for greer
county...

At 654 pm cdt...radar and trained weather spotters ovserved a
tornado. This tornadic storm was located 8 miles northwest of
mangum...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Willow and brinkman.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to a basement or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile
home or outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

This tornado is likely obscured by rain and may not be visible. Do
not wait to see or hear the tornado. Take cover now. Abandon
mobile homes and vehicles. If possible...move to a basement or
storm shelter. Otherwise move to an interior room or hallway on
the lowest floor. Stay away from windows.

&&

lat...lon 3512 9951 3500 9934 3485 9967 3495 9974
time...mot...loc 2354z 226deg 25kt 3494 9964

$$

wr


================================================== ====================
wfus54 koun 182354
toroun
okc055-190030-
/o.new.koun.to.w.0002.120318t2354z-120319t0030z/

bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
654 pm cdt sun mar 18 2012

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Greer county in southwestern oklahoma...

* until 730 pm cdt

* at 650 pm cdt...radar and storm spotters observed a tornado 10
miles west of mangum. The tornado was moving northeast at 25 mph.

* locations impacted include...
Willow and brinkman.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

So in the metro were supposed to get an inch of rain or so?
What a gully washer.

I think it is an older term for a flash flood

Fairly large bow echo moving through Western OK now. Winds 60 mph or so with it. It is currently about 65 miles away. Individual cells are moving NE at 50, but the overall line is only moving east about 30. So looking like this will start to hit the I-35 corridor around 6AMish. Leave early for work if you are going to get caught in this.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0285.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 190834Z - 191000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED NORTH AND EAST OF
WW 83...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING SEGMENT OF A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL
LINE...WHICH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED A STEADY STRENGTH AS IT ADVANCES INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS INTO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY 11-12Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS. THEREAFTER...INFLOW OF LESS UNSTABLE AIR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT...AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR
THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WW 83 MAY NOT BECOME
NECESSARY...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 03/19/2012


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN TX
INTO FAR SERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NWD
INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MERIDIONAL STYLE FLOW REGIME. SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO MN AND WI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX EARLY MON...BUT SHOULD STALL
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
CENTERED OVER THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM CNTRL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
OH/PA/WV...WITH ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND POSSIBLE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS.

...TX INTO OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE DAY WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES
BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING IN RELATION TO WHERE A SQUALL LINE...NOW
OVER WRN TX...WILL BE LOCATED...AND HOW MUCH COLD POOL AND
STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL BE OVER W CNTRL OK INTO WRN N TX AT 12Z...WITH SRN
END NEAR I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE OVER ERN OK/NERN
TX WITH A STRONG 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THAT AREA. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME GENERAL VICINITY...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FUELED BY WARM ADVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SHEAR WOULD FAVOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA
SHOULD BE S OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND ON THE INTERFACE OF STRONG
HEATING PROGGED OVER WRN/W CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL
DEFER POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT LIKELY RESULTING IN A LARGE MCS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RAIN.

Hey, venture, reading some other weather observation sites that indicate severe risk may be moving slightly north and east as the day unfolds, possible watch going up...what are you seeing/reading?

Prelim Storm Reports. 4 tornadoes total from Sunday.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 14 SW CROWELL 33.83N 99.91W
03/18/2012 E1.25 INCH FOARD TX PUBLIC

0515 PM HAIL 2 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.95W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK PUBLIC

DAMAGED WINDSHIELD...RELAYED BY NWS AMA

0517 PM HAIL 1 N HOLLIS 34.70N 99.92W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0518 PM HAIL 3 W HOLLIS 34.70N 99.92W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ON HIGHWAY 62

0520 PM HAIL 1 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.93W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK AMATEUR RADIO

0535 PM HAIL 4 W HOLLIS 34.69N 99.99W
03/18/2012 E2.50 INCH HARMON OK AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR OK TX BORDER

0613 PM HAIL 1 W VINSON 34.90N 99.89W
03/18/2012 E1.75 INCH HARMON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

3 ESE OF SANDY OK

0625 PM HAIL 3 W TRUSCOTT 33.75N 99.85W
03/18/2012 E1.00 INCH KNOX TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0635 PM HAIL 7 S CHILLICOTHE 34.15N 99.51W
03/18/2012 E0.88 INCH HARDEMAN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0644 PM HAIL 2 W REED 34.90N 99.72W
03/18/2012 E2.00 INCH GREER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM TORNADO 10 W MANGUM 34.88N 99.68W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0710 PM TORNADO 3 WSW BRINKMAN 34.96N 99.60W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0727 PM TORNADO 3 WNW WILLOW 35.07N 99.56W
03/18/2012 EFO GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

0728 PM HAIL 3 NW WILLOW 35.21N 99.70W
03/18/2012 E1.50 INCH BECKHAM OK STORM CHASER

0737 PM TORNADO 5 NW WILLOW 35.10N 99.57W
03/18/2012 EF0 GREER OK STORM CHASER

TIME AND LOCATION APPROXIMATE

1109 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW GAGE 36.30N 99.78W
03/18/2012 M58 MPH ELLIS OK ASOS

GAG ASOS

0300 AM TSTM WND GST 4 ESE ERICK 35.19N 99.80W
03/19/2012 M60 MPH BECKHAM OK MESONET

0325 AM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW WOODWARD 36.42N 99.42W
03/19/2012 M58 MPH WOODWARD OK MESONET

&&

Other than windy there doesn't seem to be a lot going on weather wise.

Other than windy there doesn't seem to be a lot going on weather wise.

As far as I'm concerned, the closer we get to April, that's a good thing.

When I was a kid, April was the month that used to scare me to death for storms. I know the "bigger" season statistically is May, but, for whatever reason, April was the month of dread in my book. Used to dread the "beep" tone on Channel 4, and certainly the gravely squawk they'd play in threes over on Ch 9...

1171

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1252 am cdt thu mar 29 2012

valid 291200z - 301200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms for the mid/lower-mo valley
swwd to the far ern tx panhandle...

...synopsis...
A weak upper-level trough from the nrn rockies to the lower co
valley will move ewd and likely extend from the nrn to the srn high
plains by 00z/fri. This will displace the ridge currently extending
across most of the plains to the ms valley and eventually to the
great lakes/midwest. Primary surface cyclone should develop into the
mid-mo valley this afternoon with a pair of attendant troughs
extending nwd into the ern dakotas and swwd into the tx panhandle.
Arcing warm front should gradually retreat newd across nrn mo and
into far srn ia during the evening.

...lower/mid-mo valley to the srn high plains...
A marginal risk for severe hail will likely exist during the morning
with lingering elevated convection ne of the warm front in the
lower/mid-mo valley. Surface-based tstm development should be
relatively more widespread across the cntrl/srn plains compared to
wed afternoon owing to favorable timing of a broad upper-level
trough approaching the cntrl conus. Large-scale ascent associated
with this trough and convergence along the aforementioned surface
boundaries should prove sufficient for removal of a capping
eml...resulting in isolated to scattered tstms forming across ern
neb/ks during the late afternoon/early evening.

Steep mid-level lapse rates along with surface heating will
contribute to large potential instability with mlcape likely
reaching 2000-3000 j/kg from sern neb into wrn ok. A strengthening
kinematic profile that veers with height should initially yield
supercells capable of very large hail. With time...conglomeration of
cellular cold pools could yield upscale growth into an mcs shifting
ewd into parts of mo and srn ia with risks for severe hail/wind and
perhaps a tornado or two.

Farther sw...guidance is fairly consistent that in the evening...one
or more areas of convective clusters should form along the surface
trough extending towards the tx panhandle and perhaps swd along the
dryline in wrn tx. Have extended slight risk probabilities swwd
towards the red river on the fringe of moderate mid-level wlys.

..grams/rogers.. 03/29/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0380.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292150Z - 292245Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG
A DRYLINE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK...PERHAPS
EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING TCU FIELD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRYLINE...POSITIONED 30 W HUT TO 10 W GAG PER 2100Z SFC
ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE MOST OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA MAY STILL BE CAPPED...AMPLE SFC HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S/ ALONG WITH STRONG IMPLIED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE /ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN OK/
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE CINH AND FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
STRONGER OVER PORTIONS OF KS...WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN
OK. NONETHELESS...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS KS...WHILE MULTICELL/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE.

..ROGERS.. 03/29/2012


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0116_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK...AND AS THE
DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/...BUT THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Low storm chances today, but storms that do develop will probably go severe and risk is there for some monster hail in those storms (baseball or larger).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN A PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW REGIME WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM
NWRN MO INTO CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH SWRN PA BY EARLY
SAT. WARM FRONT OVER THE MID-MS/TN VALLEYS WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO CNTRL TX BY
AFTERNOON.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST...SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NEWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRINGE OF THE
PLAINS EML AND ATTENDANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AS WELL...THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. WITH 700-500 MB WLYS AOA 30 KT FROM THE OH VALLEY
NWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH SECONDARY THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. TSTM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE BY 21Z
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL INTO IND...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY GROWING
UPSCALE WITH ERN EXTENT AND BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LOCATION APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH
ILL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG SHOULD
BECOME COMMON BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY WIND SHIFT INVOF THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL TX. NAM AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GFS SUGGEST
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING AS CIN IS MINIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH FLOW THROUGHOUT THE KINEMATIC PROFILE MAY REMAIN
MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
SHOULD STORMS FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD LOW-COVERAGE SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 03/30/2012

Main threat area is now generally south of I-40 and west of a line that is about 50 miles east of I-35.

1173
here is the slight risk severe weather map for this afternoon storms

Developing storm in far western Garvin County between Purdy and Lindsay. Nothing major yet, but we'll watch it. Anything that happens to get cranking could drop some monster hail so we need to stay alert.

Tomorrow should be pretty quick and then we'll transition to the April thread. There are a lot of major changes in the layout of the April thread (http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29292), so please give feedback. It is probably going to load a little slow due to the radar animations but I did want to get a lot of good information in there. For best viewing it will need to be viewed on a widescreen monitor, but those tend to be standard anyway.