View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012



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sacolton
02-09-2012, 07:49 PM
http://services.trb.com/kfor/7day.jpg

The only way to know for sure is to look outside your window come Monday morning. *sigh*

ZYX2
02-09-2012, 08:11 PM
Anyone that is giving a 100% chance of precipitation four days out needs to study the weather patterns of Oklahoma.

ouamber
02-09-2012, 09:54 PM
Wow! 2-4 inches for OKC...that is pretty bold even for Mike! The Tulsa guys up here are sticking to their 1 in or less and probably just a cold rain. Hmmmm.....the 0Z GFS did trend a little cooler. We'll see!

venture
02-09-2012, 10:45 PM
NAM and GFS are pretty well aligned right now for Sunday Night/Monday AM with just a bit of a positioning difference. NAM is 1-2" over the Eastern 1/4th of Oklahoma. GFS is around 1" along and south/east of I-44. Aka...Y-a-w-n.

bandnerd
02-10-2012, 05:16 AM
Anyone that is giving a 100% chance of precipitation four days out needs to study the weather patterns of Oklahoma.

Thumbs up to that.

ZYX2
02-10-2012, 05:31 AM
Notice it now says one inch of sleet and snow and a 90% chance.

SoonerDave
02-10-2012, 10:27 AM
My wife's gonna be hacked. She wanted Monday off. (evilgrin)

venture
02-10-2012, 11:46 AM
OUN's discussion from this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.AVIATION...
10/12Z TAFS...LIFR AND VLIFR VSBY/CIGS CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT
KOKC/KOUN/KPNC FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST BEFORE
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AND DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE...WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FARTHER WEST
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALL BUT FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER REGION. MUCH...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOWARD EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER AND THE MODEL FORECAST OF
EROSION IS PROBLEMATIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS POINTING TO THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM
PRODUCING A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO JUST SNOW OR
RAIN. VERY DIFFICULT TO HAVE SNOW OCCUR OUTSIDE OF FAR
WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHEN WE HAVE THE PROGD SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEPICTED IN ALL THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...VERY DRY NATURE OF NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB EFFECTS SUNDAY AS WE MOISTEN FROM ALOFT.
INITIALLY...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. BY THE TIME MOISTENING TAKES PLACE
FARTHER EAST...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASE IN WARM
NOSE OF H850-750 LAYER. THE WRF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS WARM AIR
INTRUSION AND IN MANY CASES STILL DOES NOT FORECAST IT TO BE WARM
ENOUGH. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS POINTS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF THE
I-44 CORRIDOR AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TYPING...IT APPEARS THAT THE TRANSITION FROM
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN WOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICK
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. IN ADDITION...QPF IS NOT PROGD TO BE
EXCESSIVE. OUR GREATEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE SOUTH-CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER AND QPF IS ALSO HIGHER. IN A BIG NUTSHELL...THE MENTION OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
ICE/SNOW STORM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTS FROM AT LEAST SOME
SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF THE CONCERNS. ONCE GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE/LOCATION IS ACHIEVED...WINTER STORM
WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

Bunty
02-10-2012, 02:40 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

.widespread wintry mix expected late sunday through early monday...
Very cold air...which will spread over oklahoma and western north texas early this weekend...will lead to a chance of ice and snow when a storm system arrives late this weekend. Beginning late sunday and continuing through monday...this storm system will pull relatively warm and moist air up over the cold air entrenched at the surface. Although this process will help modify and erode the colder air...the atmosphere will warm fastest aloft. This will lead to a mixture of snow...sleet...and freezing rain over much of oklahoma and western north texas. Precipitation is expected to begin as early as sunday afternoon across western north texas and western oklahoma...and then spread northeast. It currently appears that precipitation will start as snow...then transition to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain sunday night...before switching to rain on monday. The greatest chance of accumulating snow is forecast to occur with an area of snow that is expected to develop over far western oklahoma... And adjacent parts of north texas sunday afternoon and then move northeast toward north central oklahoma sunday night. The greatest chance of sleet and snow will occur from near wichita falls up through oklahoma city. The greatest chance for freezing rain will be over south-central and southeast oklahoma. Current model forecasts suggest that accumulations will be relatively light and should not cause significant disruptions to travel or power supplies. However...with it being quite cold initially on sunday and sunday night...it will not take much precipitation to create slick and hazardous bridges...overpasses... And sidewalks. You should check noaa weather radio...or your favorite internet and tv sources for the latest information on the upcoming winter weather.

sacolton
02-10-2012, 05:00 PM
KFOR says 100% with NO DOUBT there will be 2" - 4" snow and some ice.

No wiggle room here for error. 100%!!!

bandnerd
02-10-2012, 07:11 PM
I think it's funny that it's supposed to start as snow, then move to various kinds of ice, then to rain. Shouldn't be the other way around? Not in Oklahoma!

venture
02-10-2012, 09:30 PM
I think it's funny that it's supposed to start as snow, then move to various kinds of ice, then to rain. Shouldn't be the other way around? Not in Oklahoma!

Nah, I've seen it do the same thing up north. Nothing really unique about it. :-)

As far as the outlook...00Z models are keeping total precip amounts very low in Central OK. Generally less than 0.25" in all areas. NAM keeps the forecast for all snow with maybe some sleet mixing in. GFS starts as snow and goes to Sleet/Rain. Freezing rain risk looks low as surface temps will be at or above freezing.

Worst case...2-3 inches of snow with sleet and a little ice. Most likely case...quick dusting that will melt by Monday evening.

Easy180
02-11-2012, 06:47 AM
So basically just looking at some slick spots on the Mon morning drive and no problems by the drive home...Works for me

Roadhawg
02-11-2012, 09:41 AM
KFOR says 100% with NO DOUBT there will be 2" - 4" snow and some ice.

No wiggle room here for error. 100%!!!

With our resident Paul Revere nowhere in sight I'll once again fill in

RED ALERT

venture
02-11-2012, 03:32 PM
Winter Weather Advisory will be put up sometime this evening for Sunday PM through Monday AM. Light snow North of I-44...about 1-3". Mix along and just south of I-44. Nothing horrible, but bridges will get a bit icy. Not sure if they are pre-treating with brine at all. Probably just going to wait and throw some sand on it later. *sigh*

sacolton
02-11-2012, 03:51 PM
With our resident Paul Revere nowhere in sight I'll once again fill in

RED ALERT

You need a 200 pt font size to make it work.

kevinpate
02-11-2012, 06:45 PM
With our resident Paul Revere nowhere in sight I'll once again fill in

RED ALERT



There, fixed it for ya

Snowman
02-11-2012, 10:04 PM
YELLOW ALERT

may be more in order

venture
02-11-2012, 10:05 PM
New forecast models are in today. One word. Yawn. LOL Okay this is for the OKC area specifically. "Total Liquid Amount" or QPF is the amount of precip that is forecast to fall if it was all melted down.

NAM Forecast

Precip Start: 9PM Sunday

9PM -12AM: 0.05" QPF, Snow = 0.5"
12AM - 3AM: 0.05" QPF, Snow = 0.5"
3AM - 6AM: 0.03" NW to 0.05" S, Snow/Sleet Mix > 0.5"
6AM - 9AM: 0.01" NW to 0.05" SE, Freezing Drizzle/Sleet
9AM - 12PM: Dry NW to 0.03" SE, Drizzle/Freezing Drizzle (should be near or above freezing by this time)

Worst Case Scenario: Snow ~ 1.5", ~0.1" of Ice

GFS Forecast

Precip Start: 9PM Sunday

9PM -12AM: 0.03" QPF, Snow = 0.3"
12AM - 3AM: Dry NW to 0.01" S, Snow = 0.1"
3AM - 6AM: Dry, maybe Freezing Drizzle
6AM - 9AM: 0.01" NW to 0.03" SE, Light Freezing Rain/Drizzle or Light Rain/Drizzle
9AM - 12PM: 0.03 N to Dry S, Light Rain/Drizzle (precip ends during this block)

Worst Case Scenario: Snow ~ 0.4", ~0.05" or less of Ice

venture
02-12-2012, 04:03 AM
Advisory is up.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
421 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052-TXZ086-090-
121830-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0003.120213T0000Z-120213T1800Z/
WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-DEWEY-
CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-
OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
HUGHES-KIOWA-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
WICHITA-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...TALOGA ...
WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUT HRIE...
STILLWATER...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...HOBART...FREDER ICK...LAWTON...
DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...
WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA. ..MADILL...
DURANT...WICHITA FALLS...HENRIETTA
421 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE REST
OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER WILL BE RAIN.

* SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AVERAGING 2 INCHES OR LESS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE DUE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAY
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE SNOW AND SLEET...AND A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. SLICK CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED
SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

Roadhawg
02-12-2012, 07:29 AM
You need a 200 pt font size to make it work.

I was going to use that later just before the national disaster of getting an inch of snow lol

Easy180
02-12-2012, 07:39 AM
Anyone know what the ground temps are? Sure they have dipped over the past few days

OkieHornet
02-12-2012, 07:53 AM
Anyone know what the ground temps are? Sure they have dipped over the past few days

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/soil_temperature

Easy180
02-12-2012, 09:26 AM
Thanks Hornet...Figured they would be down there and not much help

Tydude
02-12-2012, 02:47 PM
we could get up to 4 inches of snow according to rick mitchell

OKCisOK4me
02-12-2012, 03:54 PM
Rm = bs

venture
02-12-2012, 04:02 PM
we could get up to 4 inches of snow according to rick mitchell

Heh. That's funny. If you are in OKC I wouldn't hold my breath.

Anyway. Looks like we could see a few pockets near 3 inches over far western and Northern OK. Also in some areas of Eastern OK. NAM has pulled significantly back on snow accumulations for Central OK. Not that they were really that high to begin with. NAM is siding more on the side of sleet it seems. Freezing rain shouldn't be a major issue according to it. GFS stays almost all snow through noon tomorrow and then moves to light rain or drizzle. GFS keeps precip amounts pretty low as well...generally less than a quarter inch. Could be a pocket of up to a 0.3" from say Guthrie to Bartlesville...so could see up to 3 inches there.

Now to see if schools cancel or just delay. Then again, I can't recall them really delaying schools here that often. Pretty much it is always open or closed, no in between. Back north would always have 1 to 2 hours delays depending on what is going on...fog, snow, cold, etc.

Roadhawg
02-12-2012, 04:17 PM
Growing up in Nebraska, and in the country, it would have to be blizzard conditions before they closed school.

Achilleslastand
02-12-2012, 05:02 PM
When does this look to be hitting the metro?

venture
02-12-2012, 05:18 PM
When does this look to be hitting the metro?

Could be some light snow now on the North side of the Metro area in Logan and Kingfisher counties. Main thrust of moisture is still a few hours out.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gif

OKCisOK4me
02-12-2012, 05:29 PM
Growing up in Nebraska, and in the country, it would have to be blizzard conditions before they closed school.

Yeah, I went to high school in north central Missouri and we had a road basketball game cancelled bc the temp was -15. Nothing much else other than a blizzard would keep us from school or its activities, lol.

venture
02-12-2012, 05:36 PM
Looks like everything east of US 81 is verga right now. Starting to get some light amounts precip out west.

adaniel
02-12-2012, 06:44 PM
\
Now to see if schools cancel or just delay. Then again, I can't recall them really delaying schools here that often. Pretty much it is always open or closed, no in between. Back north would always have 1 to 2 hours delays depending on what is going on...fog, snow, cold, etc.

In defense of the school systems around here, its my understanding per state law there's very little leeway in the decision to open or close schools. The state requires schools be in session a minimum number of hours or else it doesn't consider it an official day. So depending on how late schools need to be delayed, it would just count as a missed day, and teachers would have to make it up anyway.

If roads are even a bit rough for the morning commute, expect the majority of schools to be closed tomorrow. And as a single childless person, I will probably be expected to cover for all of the parents that had to stay home with their kids :doh:

bandnerd
02-12-2012, 07:06 PM
You have to go through lunch, I think, for it to count as a "day" at school.

sacolton
02-12-2012, 08:09 PM
I seem to recall a lot of schools closed on a "chilly" day (temps were in the 20s) with no snow or ice, just windy ... because children did not have coats. Seriously.

bluedogok
02-12-2012, 08:10 PM
Austin shuts down at the mere thought of freezing precip in any form. Drivers there have trouble in rain.

venture
02-12-2012, 10:59 PM
Back edge of the main precip area is getting close to US 281 just west of the metro area. Could snow fall rates increase a bit or change to sleet right before it ends. Some more precip could develop behind this, but looks pretty isolated right now.

venture
02-13-2012, 12:49 AM
Winds will be increasing 20-30 mph behind the system. Could see some blowing and drifting on east-west roads. Shouldn't be a big deal. Might have some local reduced visibility and previously cleared roads (LOL...who am I kidding, I mean errr...) could be covered again.

venture
02-13-2012, 02:48 AM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

Roadhawg
02-13-2012, 06:58 AM
I seem to recall a lot of schools closed on a "chilly" day (temps were in the 20s) with no snow or ice, just windy ... because children did not have coats. Seriously.

When I lived in the south I saw several days like that and just laughed. My dad would be I don't care how cold it is you're going to school *lol* Growing up the grade and junior high had heat but no a/c.

bluedogok
02-14-2012, 11:08 AM
Many people in Austin do not have anything that would be regarded as a "heavy coat". In fact most of mine that I have are from when I lived in OKC, I can probably count the number of times that I wore it in Austin on one hand.

venture
02-14-2012, 12:16 PM
Low risk tonight for some large hail with storms that form. So could see one or two go severe tonight.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...
ONE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA WILL DIG SSEWD TOWARD NRN
CA/NW NV...AS ANOTHER PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER SRN UT/AZ PROGRESSES
EWD TO NM EARLY TONIGHT AND THE TX PANHANDLE/W TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND S OF
THE FOUR CORNERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER E...A SEPARATE RISK OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS TX/OK/KS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NWD ON A 30-40
KT SLY/SSWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1250 J/KG. THE LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -20 C...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM 06-12Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF ELEVATED
STORMS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE PLUME...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES IN
THIS OUTLOOK.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/14/2012

ou48A
02-14-2012, 03:31 PM
Many people in Austin do not have anything that would be regarded as a "heavy coat". In fact most of mine that I have are from when I lived in OKC, I can probably count the number of times that I wore it in Austin on one hand.

In the last 20 years have only worn my very heaviest coat twice (OU football games) in Norman and sweated in it both times.
I have been out in -60 wind chills for extended periods (2hr) in this coat and been reasonably comfortable.
But the coat is built for artic like conditions as is some of my other clothing.

Roadhawg
02-15-2012, 07:15 AM
In the last 20 years have only worn my very heaviest coat twice (OU football games) in Norman and sweated in it both times.
I have been out in -60 wind chills for extended periods (2hr) in this coat and been reasonably comfortable.
But the coat is built for artic like conditions as is some of my other clothing.

My cold weather coats have yet to make it out of the closet except for 1 time when we had the blizzard. I wore it when driving around in the jeep pulling people out. Still had to keep the jeep temp pretty cool or else I would have sweated myself to death lol

ouamber
02-17-2012, 02:14 PM
Has anyone looked at the GFS or Euro lately??? All models are showing a MAJOR change starting around the 26th of Feb-March 4th. (give or take a few days) An arctic intrustion seems to be wanting to head due south into the plain states. At the same time, several storm systems (one big one) could bring Oklahoma our first major winter storm of the year. Could be ice, sleet, or snow..or all the above. Just wondering what some of the mets are saying.

SoonerDave
02-17-2012, 02:37 PM
Has anyone looked at the GFS or Euro lately??? All models are showing a MAJOR change starting around the 26th of Feb-March 4th. (give or take a few days) An arctic intrustion seems to be wanting to head due south into the plain states. At the same time, several storm systems (one big one) could bring Oklahoma our first major winter storm of the year. Could be ice, sleet, or snow..or all the above. Just wondering what some of the mets are saying.

Awfully early to get too focused on anything that far out, I'd think.

venture
02-18-2012, 02:20 AM
Has anyone looked at the GFS or Euro lately??? All models are showing a MAJOR change starting around the 26th of Feb-March 4th. (give or take a few days) An arctic intrustion seems to be wanting to head due south into the plain states. At the same time, several storm systems (one big one) could bring Oklahoma our first major winter storm of the year. Could be ice, sleet, or snow..or all the above. Just wondering what some of the mets are saying.

GFS has been hinting at it, but we'll see if it is still showing it in a few days. It does have a decent chance of snow around the first of March...3" or less. You go out a few more days on March 4th and it is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak. It'll change 30 more times. Don't get worked up yet.

Roadhawg
02-18-2012, 08:54 AM
Hey Venture.... Don't you ever sleep? lol

ou48A
02-20-2012, 11:23 AM
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT A BELT OF FOCUSED DCVA WILL GIVE
RISE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY 20/21-23Z FROM NEAR THE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OCCLUSION OVER CNTRL KS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO
CNTRL OK. THE AMBIENT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE 40-45 KT
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 100-250 M2/S2.
GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE
SETUP WILL FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF
TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING.



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

OKCisOK4me
02-20-2012, 11:33 AM
Is this outlook for north central Oklahoma like all stations were discussing last night?

bandnerd
02-20-2012, 02:33 PM
Storms. Neat.

OKCisOK4me
02-20-2012, 03:39 PM
That was exciting!

SoonerQueen
02-20-2012, 09:30 PM
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a211/SoonerQueen/421483_298538563535196_103140069741714_774104_1311 876064_n.jpg

This picture was taken today as the front came through OKC. Notice the clouds and the rainbow. Amazing colors and great photography.

Bunty
02-20-2012, 10:09 PM
Looks like a mess of sheets of rain, regular storm clouds and dust clouds. Luckily the storm didn't come with as much destruction as it looked.

catch22
02-21-2012, 12:06 PM
Yesterday was pretty cool. I got off work about 315pm on the southwest side of town, was driving towards Edmond and it was very stormy looking and as I got on I-44 it was raining pretty heavily. Ate late lunch with my girlfriend and by about 530pm I was driving back to the southside and it was warm and sunny! Not a cloud in sight!

SoonerDave
02-21-2012, 01:20 PM
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a211/SoonerQueen/421483_298538563535196_103140069741714_774104_1311 876064_n.jpg

This picture was taken today as the front came through OKC. Notice the clouds and the rainbow. Amazing colors and great photography.

That's an awesome picture. Did you take that, SQ? If so, was that tintype coloring just a happy accident or purposeful?

Ginkasa
02-21-2012, 01:22 PM
My wife and I looked out the window yesterday and saw it was cloudy and stormy looking. 10 minutes later we heard some thunder. We looked out again to see if it had started raining, and the sky was blue and sunny.

BG918
02-21-2012, 02:37 PM
Has anyone looked at the GFS or Euro lately??? All models are showing a MAJOR change starting around the 26th of Feb-March 4th. (give or take a few days) An arctic intrustion seems to be wanting to head due south into the plain states. At the same time, several storm systems (one big one) could bring Oklahoma our first major winter storm of the year. Could be ice, sleet, or snow..or all the above. Just wondering what some of the mets are saying.

Not seeing this on the NAM...didn't look at the latest run of GFS, is it still showing up there?

bandnerd
02-21-2012, 04:16 PM
That's an awesome picture. Did you take that, SQ? If so, was that tintype coloring just a happy accident or purposeful?

No, she didn't take it. Someone Midtowner and I know did, though. It's an Instagram picture taken from an office building.

MDot
02-21-2012, 04:57 PM
No, she didn't take it. Someone Midtowner and I know did, though. It's an Instagram picture taken from an office building.

I can't really tell but to me it looks like it was taken from the Valliance Bank building, am I wrong?