Storm north of Frederick is intensifying pretty rapidly.

Heavy rain in Stillwater as of 12:40 pm as it nears 1 inch, or better. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4+ inches common in northwest Oklahoma. You can see the rain on the OSU webcam here:http://www.ocolly.com/webcam

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0025_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ENE INTO AN INSTABILITY
AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1200 J/KG AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS AND
CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE O-2KM WIND FIELDS
WERE BEGINNING TO VEER OVER FAR SWRN OK...SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS
NOTED ON THE TLX/PURCELL PROFILERS TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF A
COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

WT 0025
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Did bring the chat room up for today: http://www.chatokc.com/severechat.html

I am driving to Dallas in about 3 hours. Would it be a good idea to hold off until later this evening?

I am driving to Dallas in about 3 hours. Would it be a good idea to hold off until later this evening?

Probably...otherwise you'll be driving in an out of rain/storms most of the way. Though if you time it right the first line should clear I-35 here in about an hour or two. You'll then have a narrow window until the next line comes through, unless more pop up out ahead of it.

Thanks venture.

I have a car with low profile tires that DO NOT like driving through heavy t-storms (not to mention I don't want to get caught in hail).

significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for lincoln...logan and payne counties. At 220 pm cst...a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of meridian...moving northeast at 45 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch...
Wind gusts to 40 mph...
Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at this time.

I think we're pretty much done for here in the metro area. Still a little batch just to the SW, but that's it. Nice to hear thunder in February!

Looks like the possibility for some light sow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Generally north of I-40. Accumulations will be a half inch or less in most areas...don't expect much to stick with ground temps warming up.

Long range still no hint of snow...That puts us with just about one week left in Feb then March to go...Wonder how long it's been since we didn't have any measurable snow through an entire winter?

I'm gonna feel ripped off if we don't get at least one good snow before tornado season starts

I hope that isn't the case, we will be coming through there mid-week with the truck and a trailer on my wife's 4Runner moving everything to Denver.

Sad news in the chaser world. Anyone who has followed my chats and the severe weather videos that were linked to have likely been pointed to some of his live coverage.

http://www.newson6.com/story/16677460/multi-car-wreck-closes-turner-turnpike-at-sapulpa

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28628-Andy-Gabrielson-killed-in-traffic-accident

Chasers and Spotters across the country turned their GPS tracking on for the Spotter Network to pay tribute - several got creative in plotting their GPS position: http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s320x320/416950_338284852870129_171513679547248_1095198_114 6214667_n.jpg

Long range still no hint of snow...That puts us with just about one week left in Feb then March to go...Wonder how long it's been since we didn't have any measurable snow through an entire winter?

GFS tonight is hinting again at some Tues/Weds. So we'll have to see.

Not sure about last season we've gone without snow. Won't be this year. We have already officially recorded a trace for the year/season (snowfall season is July 1 to Jun 30). :-)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=oun

Sad news in the chaser world. Anyone who has followed my chats and the severe weather videos that were linked to have likely been pointed to some of his live coverage.

http://www.newson6.com/story/16677460/multi-car-wreck-closes-turner-turnpike-at-sapulpa

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28628-Andy-Gabrielson-killed-in-traffic-accident

Chasers and Spotters across the country turned their GPS tracking on for the Spotter Network to pay tribute - several got creative in plotting their GPS position: http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s320x320/416950_338284852870129_171513679547248_1095198_114 6214667_n.jpg


Sad news indeed... RIP Andy

I am sad for Andy Gabrielson that he wasn't as fortunate as my frightening encounter with a wrong way driver. A few months ago one Saturday night while driving north on I-35, I suddenly noticed headlights coming straight at me and was wondering what the heck, is he coming at me the wrong way? Fortunately, the wrong way driver was coming at me in the lane I wasn't in when he passed me.

GFS tonight is hinting again at some Tues/Weds. So we'll have to see.

Not sure about last season we've gone without snow. Won't be this year. We have already officially recorded a trace for the year/season (snowfall season is July 1 to Jun 30). :-)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=oun

A friend in northern Nebraska was complaining he had to dig out and I told him you think you have it rough, I may have to mow the yard this week.

Some hints of accumulating snow by the end of next week, but not confident enough to get in depth yet.

Some hints of accumulating snow by the end of next week, but not confident enough to get in depth yet.
I so hope this is correct

Sad news in the chaser world. Anyone who has followed my chats and the severe weather videos that were linked to have likely been pointed to some of his live coverage.

http://www.newson6.com/story/16677460/multi-car-wreck-closes-turner-turnpike-at-sapulpa

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?28628-Andy-Gabrielson-killed-in-traffic-accident

Chasers and Spotters across the country turned their GPS tracking on for the Spotter Network to pay tribute - several got creative in plotting their GPS position: http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s320x320/416950_338284852870129_171513679547248_1095198_114 6214667_n.jpg

Very cool tribute.
I saw this on the WX channel yesterday.

Mike Morgan KFOR TV OKC says that the weather pattern will be changing and that conditions will be more favorable for snow during the middle to later part of this month.


I’m not crazy about the idea of slick roads but we still need the moisture and there is nothing better for the winter wheat crop this time of year than a good heavy wet snow.

Both KOCO and KFOR have locked on to something, but the NWS and KWTV have not.

Before our blizzard last year, about 50% of the nation had snow pack; right now its about half that, so it would be difficult for cold air to stay refrigerated long enough to get here and be deep enough to facilitate snow.

Of course, the freakishly cold winter in Alaska and most of Europe show there is still a lot of cold air up north. Its gotta go somewhere.

So far GFS hasn't really picked up on anything. There are two opportunities for snow in/near OKC...18th and 20th. They both look like light snow events right now (less than 3 inches). However, lot of time between now and then. Not sure which model solution KOCO and KFOR are locking on to. Looking at the Canadian, JMA, and ECMWF...nothing really jumps to sound the alarms right now.

Ole David Payne is trying for snow Sun/Mon with highs in the 30's while all other weather sites have highs in the 50's both days...Seems he is getting pretty desperate for something lol

He's desperate for something alright ... it's called "ratings".

A snowstorm during February Sweeps would be the ultimate prize for the local networks. Maybe if they hope and wish for it enough it will happen.

GFS finally picked up on something for Monday...however I want to point out this hasn't shown up in any other previous run yet. So I wouldn't put too much weight in it unless we see it for the next 3 runs.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/02/07/12/GFS_3_2012020712_F150_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

3+ inches would be wonderful

^^
Thats what she said.

Sorry, couldn't resist! :whiteflag But I agree, 3 inches of snow would be great.

We are finally getting a few storms hitting Lake Canton's catchment area +6% over the last month verses barely keeping up with evaporation for like six months before that.

weather.com is not buying into any snow for this next weekend yet.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Oklahoma+City+OK+USOK0400

I caught the tail end of Crazy Mike's forecast and he says OkC is in for 2-5" of snow over the weekend. We'll see how this one turns out

I think the news stations just want to get people unnecessarily anxious/nervous for ratings. If I had a dollar for every time they got a weather prediction wrong ...

If you notice, he hypes it during the week, knowing he's off on weekends and won't have to deal with all the "what happened to the storm" when it doesn't happen!

Its forecasted for SUN/MON... pretty sure he'll be working and he'll just say it fizzled, lol

So GFS has been fairly consistent now showing snow for the Great Plains next Monday. It hasn't been consistent picking out which area exactly. Basic rundown of the model run time (ie. Tues 00Z) and the area of snow accumulation on Monday:

Areas of accumulation more than 3 inches.
- Tues 00Z: Northern & Central Kansas
- Tues 06Z: Eastern Nebraska
- Tues 12Z: Northern Half of Oklahoma, Central/Eastern Kansas
- Tues 18Z: Northern Kansas
- Wed 00Z: Small part of NW OK & SC KS.
- Wed 06Z: Far NC OK & Eastern KS.
- Wed 12Z: Small area of SC KS and NC KS.

So out of the last 7 solutions, only one is bringing snow accumulation of any significance to Central areas and it is mostly north of I-40. That isn't to say we couldn't see a flake or two mix in and light slushy accumulation, but any "real" snow accumulation isn't here. If we want to play with probabilities it would be around 10% chance we'll see snow instead of rain. We'll see if the trend is to get more cold air down here to assist in the conversion to snow, but right now GFS at least isn't biting.

Agreed venture. I've been looking at the GFS and the ECMWF for the past couple of days and can't for the life of me figure out where these snowfall predictions are coming from other than to generate ratings for the local stations. Unless we were to get a massive intrusion of arctic air sunday morning, I don't see it being nearly cold enough for accum snow. Now a decent rain on the other hand...

Some weather sites don't even have the lows for Sun/Mon hitting freezing for either day....We have a severe case of bored meteorologists I believe

Get ready for thunder snow and 6" for the metro !

Get ready for thunder snow and 6" for the metro !

Blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah........ I'll believe it when I see it

So I work at a grocery store, and we love Mike Morgan his "forecasts" do things to sales that no in store special could ever do.

Tulsa TV station KJRH is now giving a 60% chance of snow for Monday. They are usually very conservative about bringing snow into the forecast.

I agree. I live in Tulsa, and KJRH is always the last to mention snow. Travis Meyer from KOTV is our Mike Morgan from KFOR, always wanting to sound the alarm before everyone else. I don't know if anyone looked at the GFS, but there are SEVERAL systems over the next 15-17 days that could give us snow....hope the temps keep going down and we get a lot of snow. I could use a few days off from work:)

Ole Morgan gave himself an out with the standard "It will change 6 times between now and then"

Judging from the various forecasts it does look like north of the metro may see some flakes but either way the lovebirds should have no problem keeping their reservations on Tues

Ole Morgan gave himself an out with the standard "It will change 6 times between now and then"



I think it was Rick Mitchell who said that.

The GFS 00Z run - Snowfall depth Monday Morning
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/02/09/00/GFS_3_2012020900_F108_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Side note it is also showing a light dusting early Friday morning over the Northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma. NAM isn't buying it.

Nearly all sites showing mid 40's on Sun and 50 on Mon...Looks like another rain event for the most part

GFS is still coming in, but will comment on near term.

Through early Friday Morning, GFS has painted a general snowfall accumulation of 1 to 3 inches from the OK/TX line along and north of I-35 to OKC and then north of I-44 to Tulsa. It also shows some isolated areas of 3-5 inches in NW Oklahoma. So you are probably thinking, where are the advisories? Well the TX panhandle has them, but hang on. What about those other models?

NAM through the same period has a dusting to less than an inch over extreme NE OK, Eastern half of the OK panhandle and the NE corner of the TX panhandle. Not quite anything to get excited about. Of course there could be freezing rain and such too, hence a Winter Weather Advisory (not Travelers Advisory!!!! stupid OKC media) is out for the TX Panhandle.

However, we also have the benefit of yet another model to play with since it is in the short term. The HRRR which I normally rave about. It seems to be a nice balance between the two...for the most part. It has a band of moderate snow in the far NE TX PH into the eastern OK PH and also Harper county in NW OK. It has these areas looking at 3 to 6 inches. It does have a dusting to one in for a few counties in NW OK and also back to the west.

So what to take from this? GFS is either seeing something no one else is, or it is just completely out to the lunch.

Channel 9 has Winter Storm up on their forcast for Sunday and Monday

http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kwtv/weather/updated/7day_full.JPG

RED ALERT

Channel 9 has Winter Storm up on their forcast for Sunday and Monday

http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kwtv/weather/updated/7day_full.JPG

RED ALERT

This will be the first winter storm I've ever seen happen when its above freezing:doh:

I would just love to know where this phantom winter storm has been hiding on the models. The 12Z GFS for Monday is showing...hold on...get the blowers ready...head to the stores...a freaking half inch of snow. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. *grumble*

Advisory out for the areas out Northwest. Main threat looks like freezing rain for the areas below freezing still. Snow looks like a yawner.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

OKZ004-009-010-014-100000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0002.120209T1655Z-120210T0000Z/
HARPER-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ARNETT...WOODWARD...CHEYENNE
1055 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET WILL
START LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WET SNOW.

* MAIN IMPACT: THE FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

KOCO and News9 now say snow sunday night/monday .. kfor is backing off a little

They are backing off because the models are predicting the amounts to be a lot less, plus temps may be too warm (possibly freezing rain/sleet in central oklahoma). Plus, the Euro has moved the system over Arkansas. They will get the majority of the precip as the models are predicting now.

They are backing off because the models are predicting the amounts to be a lot less, plus temps may be too warm (possibly freezing rain/sleet in central oklahoma). Plus, the Euro has moved the system over Arkansas. They will get the majority of the precip as the models are predicting now.

This is what happens when hype gets in front of common sense and forecasters become blinded to other possible solutions. If they properly blended multiple model solutions, they wouldn't have gone overboard on the hype.

The 18Z GFS came back with a lot more precip for Oklahoma, but not cooler. In fact, the system has slowed down to hit more on Monday during the day when temps are warmer. Still looks like northern OK has the best chance to see snow, central freezing rain/sleet, and southern parts-mostly cold rain. I'm still hoping the models are trending this system too warm...I want enough snow to get out of working

Snowfall amounts through the evening should remain light.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2012020921/acsnw_t5sfc_f07.png

Weather channel showing highs of 47 and 53...Pretty large discrepancy

Weather channel showing highs of 47 and 53...Pretty large discrepancy

While I consider the Weather Channel probably one of the most inaccurate resources, it depends which model the respective forecaster is latching on to. Morgan and England are obviously tied to the ECMWF model which is colder. GFS is much warmer.