We still got time. I'm sure we will get lots of snow coming soon. Until then, lets enjoy this beautiful picture.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/Mobile%20Uploads/SnowStorm/img0550.jpg

I watched this on TLC last night and I must say that young lady was quite impressive and I admire her passion on doing what you enjoy.

http://www.eversostrange.com/2012/01/14/worlds-smallest-storm-chaser/

Long range forecast looks pretty boring. Looks like a chance for some good rain towards the 25th/26th (could be heavy) and also around the 1st of February (lighter). Then a few days into February the GFS is wanting to do a very aggressive shove of the arctic air into the US. Highs in the 20s from Oklahoma to the north...highs below zero from Nebraska and north. No major snow or ice chances coming up. January looks like it'll go down as a very tame month, but February and March can toss major winter storms at us.

The other side to the story is fire season. So long range fire outlook...

Sunday 22nd - Extreme Fire Conditions possibles. Winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Relative Humidity will be under 20% for much of Central & Western OK.
Monday 23rd - Very High Fire Conditions. Winds a bit calmer but RH values still low.
February 3rd and 4th - Way out there, but RH values projected to be extremely low and winds will be up there. I would hope that good rains on the 25th and 26th would remove this risk, but we'll see.

Long range forecast looks pretty boring. Looks like a chance for some good rain towards the 25th/26th (could be heavy) and also around the 1st of February (lighter). Then a few days into February the GFS is wanting to do a very aggressive shove of the arctic air into the US. Highs in the 20s from Oklahoma to the north...highs below zero from Nebraska and north. No major snow or ice chances coming up. January looks like it'll go down as a very tame month, but February and March can toss major winter storms at us.

The other side to the story is fire season. So long range fire outlook...

Sunday 22nd - Extreme Fire Conditions possibles. Winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Relative Humidity will be under 20% for much of Central & Western OK.
Monday 23rd - Very High Fire Conditions. Winds a bit calmer but RH values still low.
February 3rd and 4th - Way out there, but RH values projected to be extremely low and winds will be up there. I would hope that good rains on the 25th and 26th would remove this risk, but we'll see.

I like boring during the winter.

I like boring during the winter.

I much rather have a nice gentle snow with a good snow pack outside to keep things pretty bright and cover up the dead stuff. Not to mention, it reduces of having to deal with looking out the back window and seeing smoke and flames. Once was enough for me. :-)

GFS is wanting to mix in some colder air starting on the 25th. The system previously mentioned around this period will be getting stronger as it moves east, but GFS wants to develop wrap around moisture through the 26th. It appears that this could be rain/snow mix or all snow in much of the state. We'll see if it sticks around in later runs, but it is pretty close in time to take note. Snowfall looks light in more areas but don't be shocked to see 3-6 inches in some areas. Icing does not look like an issue right now.

Welcome to fire season. Red Flag Warnings are out for most of the area now. Winds gusting to 60PM and 3 possible fires near Chickasha, Norman, and Seminole.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image4.jpg

From KWTV: Firefighters are conducting a mandatory evacuation of the Turtle Creek Mobile home park in Norman due to a wildfire.

This is SW Norman near I-35.

[QUOTE=venture79;502000]Welcome to fire season. Red Flag Warnings are out for most of the area now. Winds gusting to 60PM and 3 possible fires near Chickasha, Norman, and Seminole.

I believe it. A gust just about blew us into another lane on NW Expressway this afternoon.

If this 48 hr NAM map works out, then the east side of OKC metro area and Tulsa area will get soaked the most. But Mike Morgan of TV 5 places the most heaviest part in the southeast part of the state.

http://okieworld.net/nam1242012.jpg

The GFS was shifting most of that rainfall to the SE but the NAM is still showing 2-3 inches over central and eastern OK. We should know more this evening.

These are from this morning's run of the GFS (first) and NAM (second).

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/01/24/12/GFS_3_2012012412_F48_PCPIN_48_HR.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/01/24/12/NAM_221_2012012412_F48_PCPIN_48_HR.png

Well, darn, the GFS forecast looks too much like Mike Morgan's projections.

Short term HRRR output of total precip through Midnight. Light rain and few heavier pockets with thunder moving through SW OK now.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2012012418/totp_t5sfc_f12.png

What were the actual rain totals for the metro?

What were the actual rain totals for the metro?

Here is the 5-day image so the recent rainfall doesn't drop from view for a few days.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png

Much of north Texas received very heavy rain.
That might help saturate the atmosphere quicker and help imppove the odds of it raining here when the gulf jet gets going

My wife was telling me about the flooding in the Austin area, seems like that rain was a good storm for areas in desperate need of rain. I know the mountains here got a lot of snow from the systems last week/weekend which helps the snow pack here. We actually had more snow in the Denver Metro area than Vail has this winter up until these recent storms.

An amusing weather story
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail

I like how that map above shows 1.45 or so inches of rain here in the metro, but the airport received a whopping 2.23" as shown by all the news stations!

I like how that map above shows 1.45 or so inches of rain here in the metro, but the airport received a whopping 2.23" as shown by all the news stations!

If you follow the color coding, the yellow is actually 2"+. So that matches up right. Shows that just because one reporting station got a lot of rain doesn't mean an area a short distance away did too. :)

Well there is a bullseye right over the airport (extreme SW OK County).

If you follow the color coding, the yellow is actually 2"+. So that matches up right. Shows that just because one reporting station got a lot of rain doesn't mean an area a short distance away did too. :)

Oh yeah, I wasn't disagreeing. Look at Edmond, they only got something like 1.63". I was just pointing out that it's kinda funny how that works out, thank you.

Lots of really cold air bottled up over Alaska and northwest Canada right now...but the jetstream is keeping it from moving south. We had this same setup before the last blizzard (the 1 year anniversary of which will be Tuesday) when temps. were in the low 70's over most of Oklahoma the weekend before and then the jetstream dove south. No indications that is happening in the short-term forecast though...I'm sure Venture can fill us in if there is something on the long-term horizon..

Looks like the cold air may break out on the 6th and start heading south. It'll get to OK around the 9th and take us down to near or below freezing through the 12th. GFS keeps it dry though until the 12th with a chance of light snow. Granted that is the very last segment of its current forecast window, so I wouldn't get too excited yet.

Extremely boring from now through Feb 10th. Now you all know I say the end of the forecast run is normally garbage, but I'll entertain this as it has remained some what. Main thing cold air is showing that it won't come in until the 11th into the 12th. Moisture is developing ahead of a storm system on the 11th. Through 6AM the 12th generally widespread light rain over much of the state. A quarter inch or less. Morning of the 12th cold air will move in start with the NW 1/3rd. Will see it change over to snow. Mostly rain elsewhere still but there will be a band of freezing rain/sleet between. Should see it go to all snow north of I-40 through the day.

Could be pretty significant, but way far out.

This will probably be gone in the next run, but this the snowfall forecast for next weekend (Saturday into Sunday) based on the 12Z GFS run. This is the first time it has appeared.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/01/28/12/GFS_3_2012012812_F192_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Was just about to post something similar venture. This is the first time in awhile this winter I've seen some relatively Arctic-ish air coinciding with moisture. I still have my doubts though considering the pattern we've been stuck in the last 2 months.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SP/gfsSP_2_temp_168.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SP/gfsSP_0_prec_168.gif

And yes...on the 18Z run this solution is gone. :-) General rule of thumb, let it get through 4 runs of the model before getting excited. lol

Haha exactly right. It's tougher this year to have patience as most of us are looking for some glimmer of hope from the models that we might see some snow before spring rolls in.

Right now I would say best guess is we are going to end up having a fairly dry February. Couple bouts with passing storm systems that might start an early storm season. Fire season will probably be pretty active and the drought, which has seen some relief, will start to increase again.

If past history is any indicator, this Spring is going to shape up to be a pretty rowdy one as well. The numbers below are just for Oklahoma, of course, and show that EF5s normally occur during La Nina effected Springs, but EF4s are more likely outside La Nina's grasp. A study was put out early last year that touched on this and shower La Nina years typically bring the most violent tornadoes, but not really higher numbers. However for Oklahoma, our two biggest years happened with an ending La Nina. Does it really mean anything? Overall not really. Oklahoma will have tornadoes this spring, just like the sun will rise tomorrow...unless it super novas and then we have nothing to worry about. Just don't be shocked if we see it start early this year and have another round of violent tornadoes. We've never had EF5/F5 tornadoes in back to back years.


La Nina Impacted Springs...

2011: 118 Tornadoes - 1EF5, 3 EF4s
2008: 77 Tornadoes - 1 EF4
2001: 61 Tornadoes
2000: 44 Tornadoes
1999: 145 Tornadoes - 1F5, 2 F4s
1996: 48 Tornadoes
1989: 20 Tornadoes
1985: 36 Tornadoes
1976: 28 Tornadoes - 1 F5, 2 F4
1975: 34 Tornadoes
1974: 45 Tornadoes - 1 F4
1971: 39 Tornadoes
1968: 55 Tornadoes
1965: 74 Tornadoes -- 1 F4
1957: 107 Tornadoes -- 5 F4s
1956: 49 Tornadoes -- 2 F4s
1955: 77 Tornadoes -- 3 F5s, 1 F4
1951: 43 Tornadoes
1950: 23 Tornadoes -- 1 F4

Non-La Nina Spring F5/EF5s: 1960, 1982
Non-La Nina Spring F4/EF4s: 1954 (2), 1959 (2), 1960 (4), 1961 (1), 1962 (2), 1966 (1), 1967 (2), 1970 (1), 1972 (1), 1973 (2), 1977 (1), 1978 (1), 1979 (3), 1981 (2), 1982 (1), 1984 (2), 1991 (3), 1992 (1), 1993 (1), 2003 (1), 2009 (1), 2010 (2),

The risk for a snow event next weekend hasn't returned. So we'll chalk that up to a fluke. Pretty boring coming up, but some rain chances coming up in the extended term. Also a risk for maybe some severe weather around Feb 9th.

Still not much in the way of snow for Oklahoma, so lets talk severe weather.

Low probably tomorrow (Wednesday) in far Southeast Oklahoma. Instability will be pretty decent so could see one or two severe storms.

Next chance looks like Friday across most of the state. Nothing extreme or high end...its February. However, we could see a low to slight risk of severe weather across most of Oklahoma especially from NW to Central to Southern OK. GFS is also increase the probably of very heavy rain. This is been consistent for 3-4 model runs now, so I'm going to bring attention to it. It looks like Nebraska and back towards Illinois could be in store for a good dumping of snow from this.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/01/31/00/GFS_3_2012013100_F96_PCPIN_24_HR.png

Starting to look to me like there's a more than decent chance we're going to go snow-free this year. :( I surely don't want a repeat of the Christmas Eve Blizzard of a couple of years ago, but I wouldn't mind a nice dusting that lasted a day or so...

Starting to look to me like there's a more than decent chance we're going to go snow-free this year. :( I surely don't want a repeat of the Christmas Eve Blizzard of a couple of years ago, but I wouldn't mind a nice dusting that lasted a day or so...

I think officially we have a trace of snow for the season so far. For record keeping purposes, the winter/snow season for the NWS does not follow the calendar year. It goes July 1st to June 30th. I would like to see us get a nice light snowfall of a few inches over a couple days to make things pretty and white outside. However, it does appear it probably won't happen this season. We might get a quick snowstorm dumping 6 inches and then it melt the next day.

If anything it looks like we are moving into severe weather season early.

I think officially we have a trace of snow for the season so far. For record keeping purposes, the winter/snow season for the NWS does not follow the calendar year. It goes July 1st to June 30th. I would like to see us get a nice light snowfall of a few inches over a couple days to make things pretty and white outside. However, it does appear it probably won't happen this season. We might get a quick snowstorm dumping 6 inches and then it melt the next day.

If anything it looks like we are moving into severe weather season early.

That's exactly what I was afraid of, venture, was just thinking about this the other day in fact.

Growing up in Nebraska we always needed the winter snow to get the much needed ground water... hope it's not another hot dry year like the last one.

Slight Risk in the state Thursday and just below slight risk on Friday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK
SWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED
IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR ABILENE THURSDAY EVENING SHOW THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE OF 1200 O 1500 J/KG...40
TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS. IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SFC-BASED...THEN A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW
OK...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE NAM. THIS BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND EXTENDS THE SLIGHT SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 60 F.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE ERN SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM NORTH
TX NWD INTO SRN KS. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY...THE
MODELS MOVE THE CONVECTION EWD ACROSS KS AND INTO ECNTRL OK WITH A
SWD EXPANSION INTO CNTRL AND EAST TX. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
INCLUDE TIMING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND GAGING HOW FAR
NORTH STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DALLAS CONVECT USING SFC-BASED PARCELS
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE.
THE HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NNWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
NCNTRL OK AND SRN KS WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHOULD BE KEPT MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IN AREAS SOUTH OF DALLAS
WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO THE LIMITED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a211/SoonerQueen/418561_10150645781330348_565095347_11184623_140945 3139_n.jpg

New SPC Outlooks are out...Slight Risk both Today and Friday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BLOCKING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL INCLUDE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTER
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND THE
COINCIDING EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...WHILE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROBABLY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LESS PROGRESSIVE
REGIME...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AND
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS THAT IMPACTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AS SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FURTHERMORE...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER JET
AXIS...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THE PRIMARY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE 03/03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A FOCUSED AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN THE PRESENCE OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY LIKELY
WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FROM CNTRL
TX NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SEVERE THREAT
POSSIBLE ON THE SRN END OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN NW TX. THIS LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE AN MCS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS SE OK...NE TX AND SRN AR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTH OF DALLAS EWD TO
TEXARKANA. THIS CORRIDOR IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET. A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND SOMEWHAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT
COULD EXTEND NNWWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE THE STORMS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER SWD WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN AR WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MOVES
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OUT OF EAST TX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ENABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT INTO SCNTRL AR. THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS NRN
OK AND SRN KS FOR A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE WEAK INSTABILITY FROM
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK MAINLY FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
EXTENDING SWD FROM THERE.

Thanks, Venture.

New Day 2 Outlook (Friday) seems to be pumping up tornado chances a bit.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK
AND NRN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AR/FAR NWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING DURING DAY 1 ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PART OF THE PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF DAY 2. HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS WRN TO CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRONG SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE ENEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND OK/N TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN AN E-W ELONGATION OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
/INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN TX 12Z FRIDAY BETWEEN LBB/MAF/ WILL
TRACK NEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 04/00Z AND REACH SWRN MO/NWRN AR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NWD FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING
REPOSITIONED FROM NRN OK EWD ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER TO THE KY/TN
BORDER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE LOW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

...SRN PLAINS TO AR/NWRN LA...
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A
LITTLE WWD. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE SLIGHT RISK HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

PER THE DAY 1 DISCUSSION...TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ SHOULD BE ONGOING
INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE EWD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE FORECAST SUBSECTION BELOW FOR MO/NRN AR TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST DPVA AND SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND WARM SECTOR DURING DAY 2. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1 CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ASCENT ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NRN/WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING EWD FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT MIXED STORM MODES WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
POSSIBLE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0091.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z.

WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

Stay inside! Stay away from windows and doors! This looks deadly, folks!

Hook hail!

Any changes by now?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0023_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.

WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ATTENDANT TO 40-50+ KT LLJ. WHILE THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

Upper Level disturbance is moving closer to the area. Storms are increasing pretty rapidly now in the Panhandle. One severe storm remains in NW OK moving into Woods County. Another strong one getting ready to move into Ellis County.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0094.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE S PLAINS INTO
ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030348Z - 030545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- CONTINUE IN/NEAR WW 23.

STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT NOW ONGOING FROM
NEAR AMA SSWWD TO BAILEY CO TX...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO WRN OK. A
FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED 1" HAIL OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND A HALF...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS TO EVOLVE WITH TIME
GIVEN MODEST CAPE BUT STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES.

A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE MOVED NEWD OUT OF THE WW INTO WOODS CO
OK/BARBER CO KS...WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT INTO S CENTRAL KS...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED NE OF THE
CURRENT WATCH.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

Well, good. Maybe we'll get a little sprinkle in Edmond. :)

Watch is being upgraded to a Tornado Watch and covers most areas just west of I-35.

Wwus30 kwns 030823
saw4
spc aww 030823
ww 24 tornado ok tx 030825z - 031600z
axis..70 statute miles east and west of line..
35wnw end/enid ok/ - 40s lts/altus ok/
..aviation coords.. 60nm e/w /30wnw end - 34w sps/ hail surface and aloft..1.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22035.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-055-057-065-073-
075-093-129-137-141-149-153-031600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.120203T0825Z-120203T1600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRADY GREER
HARMON JACKSON KINGFISHER
KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WA****A
WOODWARD

Add'l Info:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0096.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE...TX
SOUTH-PLAINS...NW TX...MAIN BODY OF OK EXCEPT ERN PORTIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030800Z - 030900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

WW WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 09Z EXPIRATION.
CURRENT THINKING IS SMALL TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
SERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WITH SVR TSTM WW POSSIBLY NEEDED
LATER AND FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH BOWING CONVECTION
OVER CANADIAN COUNTY TX...AS OF 730Z...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SWRN
TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. BKN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND
INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLS WAS EVIDENT FROM GRAY COUNTY TX NEWD ACROSS
NWRN OK TO ICT AREA. SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING LESS
THAN TRANSLATING...FOR NET NEWD SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR EWD/FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY IN MOIST SECTOR...MOVING NNEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL AND NRN OK. MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS EXTENT OF
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW...GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER...OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...IN MATCHING
REGIME OF GRADUAL SFC COOLING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN
ENLARGED FAVORABLY BY BROAD/SLY/40-50 KT LLJ. FOR THOSE AREAS WITH
SFC-BASED PARCELS...EFFECTIVE SRH 300-500 J/KG IS EVIDENT...ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST
MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES WITH
ACCESS TO MOIST SECTOR...OR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CELLS
AHEAD OF LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0024_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 225 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SW-NE SQLN OVER WRN OK AND SE TX PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...WHILE STORMS WITHIN THE
LINE MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG IT. FARTHER E...WDLY SCTD
STORMS/SHOWERS ALSO MAY PERSIST ALONG SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN
WRN/CNTRL OK.
DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND SELY NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOW LVL
MESOSCYCLONES. MODEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY
KEEP OVERALL TORNADO THREAT ISOLD. BUT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WW
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN/SRN OK E AHEAD OF SQLN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER WRN OK
LATER THIS MORNING AS MID LVL SPEED MAX NOW OVER ERN NM CONTINUES
NEWD...POSSIBLY BOOSTING STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.

45 minutes to go... we gonna hit a spell of no advisories before it possibly gets active later in the day?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0100.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 031542Z - 031645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

WW 24 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. MOST STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
OK INTO NWRN TX WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DURING MUCH OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY BY MID DAY OR THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN OK SWWD THROUGH WRN TX. OTHER
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INTO CNTRL AND NRN OK WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT. VWP DATA
INDICATE SIZEABLE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ALONG LLJ AXIS.
HOWEVER...MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATE A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SFC
SUGGESTING THE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER REMAINS ABOVE THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM THE SW
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORM INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

Im stupid i cant understand the abbreviations on most of the things listed.. So is the dry line going to go past okc area before these storms form up in the afternoon? where is the line currently? JAIYK :)

Im stupid i cant understand the abbreviations on most of the things listed.. So is the dry line going to go past okc area before these storms form up in the afternoon? where is the line currently? JAIYK :)

I know some, but not all, of the acronyms in that bulletin, but if what I"m reading in that last post is anywhere near right, they don't specifically mention the dryline. Sounds to me like at least one of the big variables going into the afternoon and evening is whether the cloud deck in SW Oklahoma dissipates sufficiently to allow the heating (and consequent instability) necessary for the storms that do form to strengthen and grow into the atmosphere where the shear is present and induce the storms to rotate.

It would seem to me based on that map that if the warm front were to shift north or northeast much it would put the OK and Cleveland county areas under a better risk for the storms. As it looks right now, being on the edge of that front, don't think they can declare with certainty one way or the other.

Dave pretty much nailed it. Cold front is back out to the west where the line of storms are now. We have another line moving through Norman/Duncan/Waurika right now. Behind this line there is clearing in SW OK with cumulus cloud development. The area that clears out ahead of the front this afternoon will have the best risk for severe weather. There are already some new storms developing down there which could limit things if it all gets clouded up right away.

any chance for some cold weather in the long term forcast?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0101.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK THROUGH NWRN AND A PORTION OF NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031759Z - 031930Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM NWRN TX THROUGH
SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
PRE-FRONTAL CUMULUS ALONG MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY A WEAK CAP AND FURTHER
DIABATIC WARMING. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM N TX THROUGH
CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINTAIN 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2012