This is the snowfall forecast for today. Some areas could see up to an inch, but I wouldn't even expect a dusting in most cases.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011122217/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

There's some light snow here in Tulsa (Bixby) right now.

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

If we wanted that, we'd all live in San Diego. :-P

If we wanted that, we'd all live in San Diego. :-P

Too spensive

So potential for some Christmas snow is the focus on this post. First off the NAM and GFS don't agree on this at all. GFS breaks out precip over parts of Oklahoma while the NAM keeps it completely dry.

First thing, the surface temps. They are not favorable for accumulating snow at all. NAM has the NW half 40 to 45, and the SW half 45 to 52. GFS has areas west/north of I-44 roughly 37 to 42. Areas to the SE of that range 40 to 50. So why are they talking snow at all? Next part...

Models do agree at a cold pocket of air in the upper levels. NAM has below freezing at the 850MB level over much of Southwest and South Central OK. GFS is below freezing over only SW OK. So theoretically any precip fall could have a chance at being snow, but it very well could melt as it gets closer to the surface. As far as precip goes, NAM is dry except over far SE OK as a system moves through Texas. GFS pops up a little area of precip over SW OK. It indicates that this would be mostly snow and could accumulate up to an inch. It might be possible with ground temps in the mid 30s in those areas, but we'll probably see them warm into the 40s as we get closer.

So I'm going to play it this way. This is a chance for light snow Southwest, but accumulations will be tough with above freezing surface and ground temps. If a burst is heavy enough, could see up to an inch in some areas. For the rest of us, it looks very slim that we'll see a snowflake in the air. Could happen if the GFS is right by the setup, but just has the positioning off a tad.

There isn't any run to run consistency with this solution, so we'll have to see how it plays out the rest of today.

Too spensive

So who knows of former Oklahomans now living in San Diego who wish they could move back to Oklahoma?

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

No thanks...seen far too much of the bloody sun already. I'd prefer no more til mid-April with a transition straight to an active storm season.

Between now and then, heavy grey skies, temps in the 20s (max) and all varieties of frozen precip, just so it doesn't get boring.

NAM and GFS are together now on some light accumulation on Christmas Day in SW Oklahoma. Don't expect much of anything anywhere else. Long range looks very dry and very quiet. Looks like a very intense storm system could be in the Southern Plains January 5th and 6th. State is forecast above freezing, but mostly mid 30s to mid 40s. Some areas could see over an inch of liquid precip. Upper air temps will be a few degrees above freezing it appears, but there is a risk that the Western 1/3rd of OK could see a rain/snow mix.

If anything, that is the one to watch as it appears now. Things will change a lot especially since this solution hasn't appeared until tonight.

My wife got stuck in the Midland/Odessa area and wasn't able to fly up here today. She got about 20 miles outside of Monahans when the roads really started getting bad, started snowing more this afternoon. Her niece hit some ice last night headed back to Monahans from Odessa and bounced off a guardrail then shot across the other side of I-20 and hit one on the wrong side. The only part of the country really seeing this and it hit down there this weekend.

Odessa and that entire part of Texas is a terrible place to be in a snow storm. In town those drivers are truly nuts.
I was their once during a 6 inch snow storm with no blowing snow and the entire area shut down for 2 days.
They had no plows to open the runways. The snow had to melt before they reopened the airport.
This was over 25 years ago. Hopefully they have a clue now.

On a 500+ mile trip I still managed to drive about 80 miles in the snow, on Farm to market roads that had no ruts in the snow, driving a 300ZX with Racing Tires.

My wife got stuck in the Midland/Odessa area and wasn't able to fly up here today. She got about 20 miles outside of Monahans when the roads really started getting bad, started snowing more this afternoon. Her niece hit some ice last night headed back to Monahans from Odessa and bounced off a guardrail then shot across the other side of I-20 and hit one on the wrong side. The only part of the country really seeing this and it hit down there this weekend.

That's unfortunate. Hopefully she is able to make it back soon.

Odessa and that entire part of Texas is a terrible place to be in a snow storm. In town those drivers are truly nuts.
I was their once during a 6 inch snow storm with no blowing snow and the entire area shut down for 2 days.
They had no plows to open the runways. The snow had to melt before they reopened the airport.
This was over 25 years ago. Hopefully they have a clue now.

On a 500+ mile trip I still managed to drive about 80 miles in the snow, on Farm to market roads that had no ruts in the snow, driving a 300ZX with Racing Tires.

If Odessa were to hire a city manager or elect a mayor from a northern state, then their problems with snow would largely be gone.

Nope, a place like Midland/Odessa just can't justify the expense of having that kind of equipment for as infrequently as they get winter storms, the airport may have some but I doubt the street department does. The drivers out there are still just as clueless as Austin drivers in the rain.

My wife said everything pretty much melted away yesterday, she heads back to Austin tomorrow and shouldn't have any problems.

There is a lot of heavy equipment in the area that is owned by non-governmental agencies that with the right organization and contracts could be utilized to clear snow off a runway. I guess nobody thought about doing that. I have driven on slick roads in the Lubbock, Odessa area several times.
At one time Texas and other states used free salt water from oil & gas wells on some roads with good melting results.

There is a lot of heavy equipment in the area that is owned by non-governmental agencies that with the right organization and contracts could be utilized to clear snow off a runway. I guess nobody thought about doing that. I have driven on slick roads in the Lubbock, Odessa area several times.
At one time Texas and other states used free salt water from oil & gas wells on some roads with good melting results.
I think "organization" and "Texas" are mutually exclusive, especially when you put a governmental component in the middle of it.

They told her the flight was scheduled to leave MAF on time, it was the fact that she couldn't get to the airport that was my wife's problem since the road was mostly ice covered at that time of day. There were no later flights that day since there are so few out of that airport.

I think "organization" and "Texas" are mutually exclusive, especially when you put a governmental component in the middle of it.

They told her the flight was scheduled to leave MAF on time, it was the fact that she couldn't get to the airport that was my wife's problem since the road was mostly ice covered at that time of day. There were no later flights that day since there are so few out of that airport.

For safety sake it’s probably better that she didn’t try and drive……Because there are many people down there who still try and drive close to the posted speed limits on slick roads.
I know there have never been too many flight options from that airport. I least she had the option of flying. I once lived in SW Kansas, almost 500 miles away from that area and found it was much quicker to drive, even at 55 MPH.

Boring 40's 50's and 60's thru Jan 10th...Golf clap

Already getting a really bad feeling about this. Looks like no winter at all, and KFOR just said the arctic air forecast for next week might just "go away."

Do I hear 112° by February 1?

Do I hear 112° by February 1?

Perhaps not, but I'm already getting the gardening stuff ready to go, a couple months early. I just have this sneaking suspicion that winter will be a no-show. Pet peeve: why in hell do all TV weathermen GLEEFULLY report an absence of snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc, and say stuff like "we can't really complain about weather like this...it's GREAT..."?

Lest you feel a bit disappointed in this winter so far, here are some videos to remind you what you are missing:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsVgoh0p_s0


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XmE64XTcmw

I have a friend in NYC who told me it has been in the 50's and the grass is still green in some places. This time last year they were reeling from their 6th largest snowfall in history.

As for me, I absolutely love this weather! And I will enjoy it while it lasts. Something tells me we are not going to escape this winter without some sort of major winter event. Remember, wasn't it like 70 degrees 48 hours before the blizzard last year?

Perhaps not, but I'm already getting the gardening stuff ready to go, a couple months early. I just have this sneaking suspicion that winter will be a no-show. Pet peeve: why in hell do all TV weathermen GLEEFULLY report an absence of snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc, and say stuff like "we can't really complain about weather like this...it's GREAT..."?

That is what always gets me. If we were in Southern California...yeah I would complain a bit about snow, because that isn't normal for the area. Snow is normal for us during winter. I would much rather have snow instead of ice and a cold rain. When I grew up back in the Great Lakes, the weather guys on TV were *ALWAYS* anti-snow and would complain like no tomorrow. Annoyed me to no end. When I recently went up there for the holidays, they seemed to be okay with mid 30s and 5 inches of rain instead of a nice blanket of snow that would normally be around. Snow that I can shovel/blow off the drive way or basement flooding and homes getting water damaged near the rivers and creeks.

Anyway...afternoon run of the GFS. Last several model runs are hinting at some form of cold air diving south in the Lower 48 after the 6th or 7th of January. The 18Z run shows a very strong winter storm impact the eastern 1/3rd of the country. The Appalachians are showing a 1 to 2 feet of snow from KY/VA up to the North and even up through Quebec. Two feet or more of snow from Upstate NY through the rest of the mountains in New England. This is the only run showing this result, so I'm not buying it. However, it does show how quick things can change on model runs every 6 hours.

So if you are a drought lover, the 12Z GFS this morning is your best friend. Zero precip forecast for most of Oklahoma through January 13th. Will that hold up? I doubt it. However, I'll just focus on a couple things.

1) Fire Danger. We will be entering the winter fire season soon and there are a few days in the period with relative humidity levels dropping below 30% that could cause for some elevated risk days. So we'll need to watch for those.

2) Cold Air Arrivals. A few short periods of cold temps will come into the state. January 2nd & 3rd could be cool...not horrible though. The big push still appears to be getting pushed back to the end of the GFS forecast window. January 10th a massive pool of cold air will start to dump into BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Forecast temps in the 10 to 30 below range. These will start to move into the Northern Plains and Rockies the 13th with lows will into the 10 to 15 below range. For Oklahoma we are looking at falling temps starting the 12th into the 13th. Still not horrible yet (30s) but if this cold dome actually is on the move, it'll dump south and finally chill everyone off for a bit.

Animated Loop: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=12&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/12/28/12/GFS_3_2011122812_F384_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Boring 40's 50's and 60's thru Jan 10th...Golf clap


Need to introduce my new 3 Wood to a bucket of balls

Obviously NWS Norman is bored right now, so they put this together...

http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/396397_316783331675934_189527004401568_976095_3303 71904_n.jpg

This will not do, Venture. Please tell me the models are dialing up some sort of frozen deathstorm. This weather is just wretched. Disgusting.

Again tonight...nothing really into Mid January. zzzzzzzz

Fire season is going to be a blast (sarcasm) if we dry out like this.

So GFS hasn't really given up on the boring pattern for the next couple of weeks - for the most part. Major arctic pool will start to move into Southern Canada by the 9th. It will reach Northern Minnesota and Northern Montana by the 10th with highs only around 5 below to Zero. By the 11th highs will struggle to get above 10 below in those areas. A strong storm system is forecast to move across the area through the 15th pulling most of the cold air east. Below zero temps could reach as far a south as the MI/IA and WI/IL border. Temps back in BC and Alberta get above freezing but a new strong storm system will be coming on shore in BC and WA. While this is happen another dive of arctic air will start to plunge south.

Meanwhile down here we'll see some periods of warm and cool weather as various storm systems pass through - all dry for the most part. Heck on the 15th of the month temps could be near 70 in parts of Oklahoma. Oh...and moisture starts to come back btw. A serious of weak systems will pass over through the 12th through 15th. Each day more moisture will be pulled up and the chance for light rain goes up. The next major storm system that comes on shore the 15th will also start to really kick up snow fall out in the mountains for the ski areas.

Since we know how reliable the last part of the GFS window is, I would say ignore a lot of this. However, we've seen this before. Arctic air pooling in SW Canada, a strong storm system coming on shore in the West, and very warm temps ahead of the system. So if we see this play out, we could definitely see some decent chances at precip probably sometime between the 17th and 20th of January. At some point the cold air has to move south. At some point we will get a strong system come through the Southern Plains. Chances are this could be our first real shot of it. It could also be completely nothing, but just something to toss out there for now.

Warm temps today and strong winds. Temps easily in the 70s in several spots today. Humidity will be low and a front coming through later. Tulsa has put out a Red Flag Warning for their area in NW Oklahoma. Norman has a Wind Advisory up for Western OK now. They are holding back on a Red Flag Warning with the thinking conditions will only surpass extreme fire conditions for just a couple of hours. So needless to say, watch what you burn today. Fire danger will be very high to extreme.

Welcome to Fire Season.

Is this wind going to affect the ball dropping in DT?

Is this wind going to affect the ball dropping in DT?

No it didn't. Especially since it didn't drop. It went up. LOL

Is this wind going to affect the ball dropping in DT?

Of forces it is expected to encounter wind would be high on the list when designing it, possibly second only to gravity, for safety engineers tend to put multiple times what is required to support the expected load applied to items.

No it didn't. Especially since it didn't drop. It went up. LOL

Must have been crazy windy then ;)

The one in OKC has always gone up as I remember it since it was a rented crane.