Are you talking about this upcoming Monday? Both Channel 9 and TWC says clear but cold.

Yes, according to AT it's this coming Monday. I'm scratching my head right now looking at the NWS' forecast and all the local stations' forecasts. Hopefully Venture can clear some of this up.

Yes, according to AT it's this coming Monday. I'm scratching my head right now looking at the NWS' forecast and all the local stations' forecasts. Hopefully Venture can clear some of this up.

I'm thinking one of them is wrong lol

Is this the same Aaron Tuttle that said this May an F5 tornado was going to move through the heart of OKC and we should all pray?

Yeah, color me skeptical.

Well according to the Farmers Almanac the weathers going to be:

DECEMBER 2011: temperature 46° (2° below avg.); precipitation 1" (1.5" below avg.); Dec 1-7: T-storms, then very cold, freeze threat; Dec 8-14: Rain, then sunny, warm; Dec 15-18: Snow north, rain south, then sunny, cold; Dec 19-25: Flurries north, rainy periods south; cool; Dec 26-31: Sunny; cool, then warm.

The KOCO weatherblog has a new post discussing the increasing possibility of precipitation from Saturday through Monday, including possible snowfall in central OK on Monday. (As an aside, Bedlam itself now looks very cold and very windy, with the bulk of the rain having moved out by kickoff).

The mention of snow for Monday isn't quite the snowmaggedon prediction from Captain Tuttle, but at least starting to see some convergence of opinion that holds for winter-type moisture coming through..

Since Thunder is taking a vacation somebody has to step up and do this....

RED ALERT

Is this the same Aaron Tuttle that said this May an F5 tornado was going to move through the heart of OKC and we should all pray?

Yeah, color me skeptical.

He was only off by about 25 miles...pretty accurate considering it's a tornado and not a snowstorm..

Since Thunder is taking a vacation somebody has to step up and do this....

RED ALERT

Incorrect!

Its FOREVER
RED ALERT

Business has me tied up for a week, but will try to keep updated on this. Is it going to snow? It looks increasingly likely.

I'm going to break this down by the NAM and GFS...

NAM model outlook
Potential for accumulating snow starts on Sunday evening in or near Central Oklahoma. This will increase back into Western and Southwest OK through the overnight hours. We'll then see this expand through the most roughly along and west/north of I-44 from border to border. By 6AM Monday morning projecting at least 3 inches of total accumulating for most of the OKC metro area and then north along I-35 and then into Southwest OK. NW OK looks like 1-2 inches, Eastern/South Central OK doesn't look like anything yet.

The next 12 hours shows additional snow far occurring into NE OK and through the rest of the state except SE. Through Monday evening, the end of the NAM forecast window, it appears a large around of 6" or more for NE, Central into SW OK...general along/near the I-44 corridor and back to the northwest. The Metro area could see anywhere from 6 to 9 inches of snow. I would love to say it is going to be a nice gentle scenic snowfall, but winds could be 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Good news...I don't see any risk of icing at all on the NAM projection. Looks like the 850 mb temps will be cold enough by the time precip starts falling to keep crystal formation in control and everything will fall as snow. There will be melting as the ground is very warm, but snowfall rates will eventually overcome that.

GFS Forecast Output

Little slower here on the snowfall accumulations...as far as start time. Like the NAM there will be a dry period between the early weekend rain and the start of winter precip. Again, minimal to no icing threat. All snow. Surface temps will be above freezing and ground temps the same, so some melting will occur first. GFS is about the same on the winds...15-25 mph, maybe even less.

GFS has by 6AM Monday the first dusting of snow in Central and Western OK. Maybe up to an inch in some very isolated areas out west. Through the day on Monday we are looking at maybe 1-2 inches across the Southern 2/3rds of OKC...dusting up North and far SE. Through the overnight into Tuesday morning, maybe just another 1-2 inches in areas.

So two pretty varied amounts depending on the model you look at. I would probably say at this time is expect the GFS solution, just don't get caught off guard if the NAM verifies in a few areas. NAM is faster in getting the system in here and taps more moisture. So we'll see what happens. I wouldn't be shocked if you see Winter Storm Watches go up for much of the area by Sunday morning (more likely tomorrow if NAM keeps hinting at 6" or more snow totals). With icing threat minimal and winds not horrible, probably could expect just Winter Weather Advisory or Snow Advisory criteria.

Again keep in mind. Ground will be wet, warm, and the surface temps above freezing. There will be melting. 4 inches or so could fall from the sky, but if 2 inches melt on contact the impact will be pretty low. Granted Oklahoma drivers do spaz out with a dusting, so auto hockey for the Monday morning commute could be underway if people are dumb. :-P

He was only off by about 25 miles...pretty accurate considering it's a tornado and not a snowstorm..

Hey guys, someone said there was a post here, so I dropped by. About the tornado...well, I was a little closer than 25 miles. But what's a few miles among friends. Also EF4 was the best it could do. I would say this was pretty close. 3 tornadoes barreling down on the metro with 2 lifting at the last minute before wiping out Norman and Moore. After all, fortune telling is an inexact science. Cheers!

You can check out the track of the tornadoes on my open Facebook page. Enjoy!
https://www.facebook.com/media/albums/?id=127856613900441#!/media/set/?set=a.219194884766613.62575.127856613900441&type=1

Predicting a tornado in central Oklahoma in May. Very impressive!

predicting a tornado in central oklahoma in may. Very impressive!

lol.

Predicting a tornado in central Oklahoma in May. Very impressive!

Not really. Narrowing that prediction down to the hour and location within 10 miles is more impressive. But I digress...

Hey guys, someone said there was a post here, so I dropped by. About the tornado...well, I was a little closer than 25 miles. But what's a few miles among friends. Also EF4 was the best it could do. I would say this was pretty close. 3 tornadoes barreling down on the metro with 2 lifting at the last minute before wiping out Norman and Moore. After all, fortune telling is an inexact science. Cheers!

You can check out the track of the tornadoes on my open Facebook page. Enjoy!
https://www.facebook.com/media/albums/?id=127856613900441#!/media/set/?set=a.219194884766613.62575.127856613900441&type=1I evacuated myself, family, and pets from my NW Norman home well in advance of the messo that day. Information such as what you provided about the possible strength, track, and length is helpful in making any necessary preparations in the hours before the threat may develop.

Not really. Narrowing that prediction down to the hour and location within 10 miles is more impressive. But I digress...

That's the point I was trying to make but oh well. LOL I was able to warm my family what you were seeing that day so your prediction assured my family safety. Enough with the sentimental stories though. LOL

Since Thunder is taking a vacation somebody has to step up and do this....

RED ALERT
Get your wills in order!

Added a bit to make it even more Thunderlike.

When you coming back, Thunder? You don't want to miss this! We can't go through a major weather event without you.

So back to weather. :-P

NAM is in for the night. Still forecasting heavy snow in the state, with the main area being from Central OK to the Northeast. We'll see how GFS compares when it comes in...which will be in an hour or so. Wind forecast would be in the 25-30 mph range in Central OK. Blizzard conditions would be sustain 35+ with low visibility and decent snowfall rates. NAM doesn't show us going over that, so will avoid that hype for now.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2011/12/03/00/NAM_221_2011120300_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

GFS isn't buying the larger snow amounts this weekend, so will have to wait until the runs tomorrow to have a clear idea of what couple happen. Still expect watches to go up.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/12/03/00/GFS_3_2011120300_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Reed Timmer on Facebook said that the storm system is looking like it'll go further south so OKC may not get that much snow. Thank god.

Good...Just not mentally ready for snow yet

Good...Just not mentally ready for snow yet

Well, what are you waiting on Easy? LOL

Reed Timmer on Facebook said that the storm system is looking like it'll go further south so OKC may not get that much snow. Thank god.

Yeah never got any chance to post updates yesterday morning. Snow chances are dwindling very fast. Few areas may see a dusting to an inch...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011120411/acsnw_sfc_f15.png

Here is one dude that is grateful the NAM forecast from a couple days was WAY off

Here is one dude that is grateful the NAM forecast from a couple days was WAY off

It was smoking something good. GFS never bought it though and yesterday it pulled way back.

It was smoking something good. GFS never bought it though and yesterday it pulled way back.

I just gotta move somewhere it snows from about October through June. Bummer, was looking forward to a good hard slap of winter.

I look forward to winter....after break starts and we don't have to make up the days when the weather is nicer ;) Selfish? Yes. I have a concert Thursday night and can't afford to miss rehearsal time!

I just gotta move somewhere it snows from about October through June. Bummer, was looking forward to a good hard slap of winter.

Become a snowbird. :) May I recommend a home either in the snow belts or in the UP of Michigan.

I just gotta move somewhere it snows from about October through June. Bummer, was looking forward to a good hard slap of winter.

Trust me, the novelty wears off after about 3 years.

Trust me, the novelty wears off after about 3 years.

Totally depends on the location and the person. I grew up in the Great Lakes and got use to the snow. Snow removal is also pretty good in those areas so it isn't as much of an issue as it is here.

Totally depends on the location and the person. I grew up in the Great Lakes and got use to the snow. Snow removal is also pretty good in those areas so it isn't as much of an issue as it is here.

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

So is my Uncle.

Should have mentioned I am in Denver
There are quite a few of us up here now...and it is snowing again. I like it, especially after the lack of any season other than summer in Austin for 8 years.

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

Should I recommend perhaps Houston then? :-P

If I move to an area I look at all quality of life items, not just the job offered. I probably would never take a job in Florida or any other warm climate area. I like my seasons. That also is why I might look at an offer to move out of Oklahoma, but I also like my crazy Springs. Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)

Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)
After the past few extended summers in Austin even my Texas native wife was sick enough of it to the point of moving up here. The reaction from everyone down there that we have told we were moving to Denver was the same thing, almost everyone has a relative up here or wants to move here.

Rain spreading into the state next week. No Arctic blast on tap...yet. Want to take a stab at a long-range forecast Venture? Maybe the GFS won't be so completely wrong this time..

Rain spreading into the state next week. No Arctic blast on tap...yet. Want to take a stab at a long-range forecast Venture? Maybe the GFS won't be so completely wrong this time..

Such is the nature of the beast with long range forecasts. The 06Z GFS definitely was aggressive with snowfall with almost 66% of the lower 48 having snow on the ground for Christmas day. Not buying it yet. I want to see about 4 consistent runs before really touching it. There is *some* indication over the last few runs of a system around the 18th through 24th going from the Southwest/Southern Plains up through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. However there is a difference in the tracks of around 300-500 miles North to South on a run to run basis. So we'll see what happens with that as we get closer.

Closer in time, next Wednesday looks like there is a good chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Severe risk looks like, but there are some indications we could see a few severe storms in the state. Hey, it is Oklahoma...when are we expected to follow normal seasons. LOL

Should I recommend perhaps Houston then? :-P

If I move to an area I look at all quality of life items, not just the job offered. I probably would never take a job in Florida or any other warm climate area. I like my seasons. That also is why I might look at an offer to move out of Oklahoma, but I also like my crazy Springs. Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)

I may have an offer in North Carolina less than an hour away from the ocean and on an inner bank.

I may have an offer in North Carolina less than an hour away from the ocean and on an inner bank.

That sounds neat. North Carolina is one of the states I wouldn't mind relocating to. They seem to get pretty much every variation of weather including a bigger impact from the tropics. Of course I'm just weird like that.

That sounds neat. North Carolina is one of the states I wouldn't mind relocating to. They seem to get pretty much every variation of weather including a bigger impact from the tropics. Of course I'm just weird like that.

Me too.... much better area for my motorcycle riding and can take the jeep to the beach :)

Haha sounds nice. I also miss trees and some variation to the landscape too.

Venture, check your personal messages

Looking forward from Oklahoma into the longer ranged, it appears there will be a chance for some heavy rain and also winter precip. This outlook takes us through Christmas.

Saturday (10th) through Monday (12th) - Appears to be mostly dry and cool. Maybe some light fog in the morning out west, but otherwise nothing major. Could have some freezing fog in the morning again in areas that are able to drop below freezing. Don't see any major issues though. Into Monday a surge of seasonably warmer air will keep overnight temps above freezing and start setting up a warm up ahead of the next system.

Tuesday (13th) - Light rain will develop across Western and also Northern Oklahoma...generally North of I-44 from MO border to OKC. Then north of I-40 from OKC to TX border. Temps will be well above freezing into the 40s and 50s, so no winter precip. Amounts generally light of a half inch or less.

Wednesday (14th) - Greater chance of moderate and heavy rain in areas of the state. Most likely areas appear to be Central and East. Thunderstorms also appear probably with a very low risk of severe weather. Rainfall rates under storms could generate over an inch of rainfall. The focuses areas will be along a warm front in Northern OK and also ahead of the Cold Front generally east of I-35.

Thursday (15th) - Temps cool back down behind the system. Some wrap around moisture will be most likely in Northern Oklahoma which could produce some light snow and very limited accumulations (wet and warm ground will promote melting).

Friday (16th) - Colder modified air mass will begin to push well into the Lower 48. Temps will fall through most of the time.

Saturday (17th) - Moisture will be returning from the south. Surface temps are only expected to get into the mid 30s while upper air temps will be near or just above freezing. Most of the moisture appears to be limited to the areas south of I-40. Some locations could see up to a half inch or more of precip in those areas. If upper levels are cooled off a little, this could fall in the form of snow. Right now, will go for mostly rain with a rain/snow mix the closer to I-40 you get.

Sunday (18th) - Moderate precip is still possible in Southern Oklahoma. Right now it appears upper levels will warm more so everything should go to rain. Precip will slowly expand northward through late in the day, but amounts will be light in those areas.

Monday (19th) - Moderate to Heavy rain will form in Northwest and the Eastern Half of Oklahoma. This will continue through most of the day. Lower amounts Southwest OK of around a half inch or less. Other areas could see 1 to 3 inches of rain. The storm system will get stronger over Oklahoma and start to pull colder air down on the back side (while causing a significant snow event just north of OK). Most of the precip will get dryslotted out by very late Monday, but areas of Northwest OK could see a couple inches of snow before it ends.

Tuesday (20th) - Dry and cool. Maybe some flurries up north.

Wednesday (21st) - New storm system forms south of Texas. Far southern OK could see some moisture late. SW OK could see a light snow accumulation. SE OK will be a rain/snow mix.

Thursday (22nd) - Upper air temps will be below freezing across all of Oklahoma. Surface temps will be below freezing roughly I-35 back to the west. This will setup for a widespread light snow accumulation across the state. Amounts will increase going from Northwest to the Southeast. Far NW OK may only see roughly an inch. Central 1/3rd of OK could see 1 to 2 inches. Southeast third could see 3 to 6 inches of snow, unless rain or sleet mixes in which will lower amounts.

Friday (23rd) - No real warm ups from here on out it appears. Upper levels will stay below freezing. Looks mostly dry with maybe some flurries around.

Saturday / Christmas Eve (24th) - Very fast moving energy will be light snow over the area. General an inch or less right now.

Sunday / Christmas Day (25th) - Dry and cold.

Monday (26th) - Dry and cool. Maybe some precip coming in later as a Clipper system is going to be dropping south. It may not make it this far south though.

Remember, extended forecasts can and often will change several times. This is just a snap shot of what models think right now.

Thanks, Venture. It may be cold and nasty but I sure am glad we busted out of the drought.

Thanks, Venture. It may be cold and nasty but I sure am glad we busted out of the drought.

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

My travel days for the holiday are DEN-OKC on the 23rd and OKC-DEN on the 26th, looks like it might not be too bad. Some very light snow flurries possible leaving on Friday.

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

I meant the drought pattern. I'm pretty sure, around here, we are out of the no rain for weeks and months even if we haven't caught up on the water tables. We've been getting rain every week or so. My farm pond is as full as I've seen it and the creeks that crisscross our land west of Mustang are in fine shape.

Drought conditions have definitely improved, but still on the cusp of going back in quickly. We have a La Nina pattern right now and can quickly go back into severe drought conditions. The outlook for winter is below average precip so we just have to take what we can get.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

After the past few extended summers in Austin even my Texas native wife was sick enough of it to the point of moving up here. The reaction from everyone down there that we have told we were moving to Denver was the same thing, almost everyone has a relative up here or wants to move here.

Don't get me wrong, I love living in Denver. The winters aren't nearly as bad as I expected them to be. When we got here, we wondered why lot sizes are small and driveways are short. Now we know its so you dont have to shovel 100 feet of driveway.

Wednesday still has a low risk of severe weather. Will need to just keep a heads up on it. Conditions that are forecast for Wednesday indicate main threats would be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Sheeesh... threat of tornado's in the middle of December.

Snownado!

Snownado!

Sounds like a bad sci-fi movie

Hey, Venture ... what's the latest for next week? How about some snow?

The system approaching Oklahoma next week bears watching closely. Right now looking like a cold rain with a chance of snow mid-week if it's cold enough.

Accuweather shows us as snowless thru Christmas

Accuweather shows us as snowless thru Christmas

Accuweather is a joke in and of itself. :-P

New GFS model is rolling in now. Will post some comments later if I'm still awake. Probably tomorrow.

GFS has shown snow somewhere in the Southern Plains next week for the last several days. It'll go away and then pop back. On this evening's GFS...it popped back.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/12/14/00/GFS_3_2011121400_F150_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Accuweather is a joke in and of itself. :-P

New GFS model is rolling in now. Will post some comments later if I'm still awake. Probably tomorrow.

My cousin in law is a meteorologist up in Lawrence and he calls Accuweather, Pukeuweather if that tells u anything!

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

That's true, but much of far eastern Oklahoma is not even in a drought. You can get a complete look at the drought coverage in Oklahoma here: http://stillwaterweather.com/droughtmonitor.php#drought

Wasn't Accuweather involved a while back in some intense lobbying effort to have the NWS or NOAA shut down and make itself some sole-source vendor for weather forecasts, or some similarly idiotic thing?