Link doesn't work.

Worked for me ?

We have very special internet at work sometimes!

Ready for some cold weather...anything headed our way in the long-range forecast?

Well last night's GFS brought some hope for snow in about a week in most of Western Oklahoma (mainly an inch or less), but this morning it is gone. Around Thanksgiving highs could be held down into the 40s, but nothing major. Things look to be pretty reasonable temp wise. Only major precip chances for Central OK looks to be Sunday the 20th into the first part of Monday the 21st. Could have some stronger storms but no winter precip as it looks now.

We have very special internet at work sometimes!

Know the feeling, we do too.

Different format - a bit. We'll see how this looks. No snow in the forecast, but some notable drops in temps here and there. Also a potential wet period showing up for Oklahoma later in the forecast, although it will not cover all of the state for most of it.

Date -|- Highs -|- Lows -|- Weather -|- Est. Max Precip
Monday, Nov 14 - Highs: 58-75 - Lows: N/A || Slight East, Dry Elsewhere || 0.00 inches
Tuesday, Nov 15 - Highs: 53-75 - Lows: 40-65 || Mod/Hvy Rain Southeast, Dry Elsewhere || 1.00 to 2.00 inches
Wednesday, Nov 16 - Highs: 45-60 - Lows: 34-60 || Mostly dry, maybe a stray shower east. || 0.00 inches
Thursday, Nov 17 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 28-35 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Friday, Nov 18 - Highs: 55-60 - Lows: 38-45 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Saturday, Nov 19 - Highs: 60-75 - Lows: 50-60 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Sunday, Nov 20 - Highs: 45-75 - Lows: 45-65 || Rain East & Southeast, Slight Chance Elsewhere || 0.00 inches
Monday, Nov 21 - Highs: 45-65 - Lows: 40-65 || Scattered Light/Mod Rain || 0.10 to 0.40 inches
Tuesday, Nov 22 - Highs: 40-68 - Lows: 35-68 || Moderate Rain Most Areas || 0.20 to 0.75 inches
Wednesday, Nov 23 - Highs: 50-70 - Lows: 50-60 || Mod/Heavy Rain West Early then Central and East Late || 0.25 to 1.50 inches
Thursday, Nov 24 - Highs: 40-70 - Lows: 40-60 || Rain East, Slight Chance Central || 0.10 to 0.50 inches
Friday, Nov 25 - Highs: 50-65 - Lows: 35-60 || Slight chance East early. || 0.10 to 0.25 inches
Saturday, Nov 26 - Highs: 50-70 - Lows: 40-65 || Mod/Hvy Rain Southwest, Central, and East. || 0.50 to 1.25 inches
Sunday, Nov 27 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 30-55 || Mod/Hvy Rain Early East, Dry elsewhere || 1.00 to 2.50 inches
Monday, Nov 28 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 35-40 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Tuesday, Nov 29 - Highs: 30-40 - 25-35 || Dry || 0.00 inches

Quick update on precip chances...

Sunday -- Very light rain in far eastern and SE OK.

Monday -- Rain expands in mostly Central and East and later out west. Focal point will be roughly just along and south of I-44 for most of the day. Rain amounts in this area will be 0.50 to 1.50" of rain, with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere less than a half inch and lower as you go more NW.

Tuesday -- Rain starts to move out. Light to moderate rain in Southeast OK. There will also be rain in far Northern Oklahoma. Temps will be in the mid 30s there, but temps higher up will be well above freezing so everything should stay liquid. If colder air works down we could see some snow flakes, but it is looking highly unlikely.

More updates on the longer term forecast once the rest of the GFS run is in.

Okay here is the long range forecast update...

I'mmmmmmmm dreaming.....of a white....thanksgivinnnnnnnnnggg...Okay well maybe not - on Thanksgiving. ;-)

I'll get to that here in a few. Here is the extended precip forecast going forward.

Friday Nov 25 - Slight chance of light rain in Southeast OK.

Saturday Nov 26 - Cold air I've been hinting at finally breaks a piece off and heads in. Upper level air temps will be well below free and stay below freeing most of Saturday. Light precip will move into Oklahoma early and linger. Liquid precip amounts will be light...less than 0.10" south of I-40, and up to 0.25" north of I-40. Rain will mix with snow over most of Oklahoma the way it looks now. The area that will have the highest probability of seeing all snow and a light dusting would be North Central and Northwest Oklahoma.

Sunday Nov 27th - Light snow will continue across Eastern Oklahoma. Lows will be around 30 and highs only in the mid to upper 30s. Don't expect much to stick, but enough in the air to get people in mood for the season. Look for very light accumulations of less than 0.10" liquid...or less than an Inch of snow.

Side note. This system will move out into the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes and begin to transfer energy off the coast to form another Nor'easter. GFS isn't forecasting pulling the cold air down enough to keep everything all snow, but I would almost expect it to be except for right along the coast. So expect some areas to see 6-12 inches and isolated areas over a foot.

Thursday Dec 1 - Light rain possible in far Southern and Southeast Oklahoma. May see a couple snow flakes mixed in, but mostly just rain.

I don't see how we can have a White Thanksgiving when we will already have a Black Thanksgiving.

I don't see how we can have a White Thanksgiving when we will already have a Black Thanksgiving.

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

He's probably referring to Black Friday but only God knows what he means, I'm just taking a shot in the dark.

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

This morning's model run keeps us dry...so we'll just wait and see what happens as we get closer.

One thing that is on track is the first week of December being cold in most areas. While longer range GFS is highly inaccurate most times, it still gives us an idea of what might happen. Highs on December 2nd for example is now shown to not get out of the upper 20s for Central OK.

So ... it's gonna be chilly willy?

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

Many retailers moved Black Friday to start on Thanksgiving this year.

Many retailers moved Black Friday to start on Thanksgiving this year.

I've only heard of one...most still open at Midnight or later - which is Friday. Anyway. It means nothing about the weather so moving on.

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

This is totally off base and not weather related but OMG why'd they make it 11? Last I seen it was at 8 but I think that was before they set an actual starting time.

This is totally off base and not weather related but OMG why'd they make it 11? Last I seen it was at 8 but I think that was before they set an actual starting time.


OU has played so many night games this year that fans, players and administrators were starting to complain. OU worked a deal with the TV folks so they could change the time. For some of the road night games OU wasn’t getting back to Norman until 4 am. It’s also not a great idea to play at night in late November because of cold and the threat of ice or snow. But I’m well quipped and will be there regardless of the weather. But I would rather be comfortable.

This morning's model run keeps us dry...so we'll just wait and see what happens as we get closer.

One thing that is on track is the first week of December being cold in most areas. While longer range GFS is highly inaccurate most times, it still gives us an idea of what might happen. Highs on December 2nd for example is now shown to not get out of the upper 20s for Central OK.

Thanks..... It sounds like Dec 3 could be very cold in Stillwater?

OU has played so many night games this year that fans, players and administrators were starting to complain. OU worked a deal with the TV folks so they could change the time. For some of the road night games OU wasn’t getting back to Norman until 4 am. It’s also not a great idea to play at night in late November because of cold and the threat of ice or snow. But I’m well quipped and will be there regardless of the weather. But I would rather be comfortable.

Well that makes sense. I guess it's a good decision to play it early instead of late.

Well that makes sense. I guess it's a good decision to play it early instead of late.

Why this is in the weather thread I have no.clue but first off, OU fans would have nothing to do with the game time decision. Its at OSU first off so they can deal with whatever time the game is to be played at. Second off, its on December 3rd this year.

Why this is in the weather thread I have no.clue but first off, OU fans would have nothing to do with the game time decision. Its at OSU first off so they can deal with whatever time the game is to be played at. Second off, its on December 3rd this year.

You responded to the wrong comment brotha. Lol

... no winter precip as it looks now.

C'mon, V, dial me up some snow, sleet, even freezing rain.

C'mon, V, dial me up some snow, sleet, even freezing rain.

Trying. LOL Just nothing showing up consistently yet.

As far as the first part of this week. Looks like the heavy rain will be confined to eastern Oklahoma. Half inch or less west, up to an inch Central (maybe more in isolated downpours) and 2+ east.

Rainfall forecast for tomorrow looks on target. It is pretty cool out there tonight, but upper levels are well above freezing. Don't expect any frozen/mixed precip even though we are in the 30s.

Full run of the GFS still coming in. Late next weekend/early next week looks extremely interesting from the Great Lakes through the Southeast. Will post full thoughts when the run is done. This could have major impacts on the end of the Holiday travel weekend.

I don't usually watch the late local news, but channel 4 after the game had their predictor whatever thingy saying okc metro would get 1.8 inches in the next 36 hours or so. it showed much more rainfall than that in the SE part of the state. any ideas if this is extreme?

Depends on which you go with.

NAM: West - 0.50" or less, Central - 0.50" to 1.00", East - 1.00 to 2.25" (highest Northeast)
GFS: West & North - 0.25" or less, Central 0.50" to 2.25", East - 2.00" to 3.50" (highest East Central & Southeast)

The GFS pulls a little finger of higher precip back through like Tulsa and the north sides of the OKC metro area. Most of the precip bands are aligned on a Northeast to Southwest type diagonal line, but the estimates above tend to cover it. Highest values then to be in the southern/eastern areas of each region. Lowest values north and west.

I would say take the average and of the two and that gives a good idea of what we could expect.

Guess I better get my laundry off the line at lunch time lol

Slight Risk of severe weather today. The risk area is south of I-44 from the OK/MO border to OKC and south of I-40 from OKC to the TX border. Large hail is the threat in this area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/AR/LA...

...NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK...
A PAIR OF POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM FOR FOCUSING THE
SEVERE THREAT IS A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TX NEAR LBB. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION
WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CAPE ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGEST A RISK OF A
FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX.

First snowfall of the season on the way? Perhaps. The image below is for Monday December 5th at 6AM. This would have 3 to 6 inches of snow over most of Oklahoma. 1-3 inches in the North. Around 6 inches along the Red River. What to take from this? The chance for accumulating snow is there, but amounts shouldn't be worried about right now. Let it get a couple days out to really start focusing on them. However, soil temps are still in the 50s. Snowfall rates would have to be decent to overcome melting.

Regardless, the outbreak of cold weather that has been mentioned...is on the way for December.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/11/26/00/GFS_3_2011112600_F228_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Awesome, I hope it happens. I can't wait to see a little snow. I'm all for having snow consistently throughout the winter.

Come on Old Man Winter!

Hopefully it will materialize. Were I in charge of the weather, today would be the hottest it got between September 21 and April 15th, the sun would be reduced to about one day a month, then only in partial clouds, and the rest of the days divided up between sleet and heavy snow.

Bring it on.

Some of y'all need professional help. Give me two days of snow, preferably 12/25-26, and I'm good for the winter. I don't hate it, it just gets in the way the rest of the time.

A snow storm is different than a nice general/occasional snow that keeps a good blanket on the ground. Keeps things brighter and not so depressing looking.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/11/28/12/GFS_3_2011112812_F144_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Snowfall forecast for next Saturday into Sunday morning.

From what I can guess it now sounds like rain in Stillwater Saturday night….. but if the storm moves in faster than currently forecast we could see the frozen stuff.

Thoughts on this please.

It will be interesting to watch this system as it gets closer to Oklahoma. With the temps. forecast it could be a steady rain Sat. afternoon turning to a wet snow in some parts of Oklahoma that evening and overnight. Definitely a lot of interest with the big game in Stillwater where that could occur...it all depends on timing and how cold it will actually be. Cold rain appears to be a certainty though with the game beginning at 7 pm.

Either way I'll be all warm and safe in front of my TV watching the game :kicking:

I like how 4 is already predicting a 70% chance, while 5 and 9 are 20-30% chances.

I like how 4 is already predicting a 70% chance, while 5 and 9 are 20-30% chances.

The NWS is predicting a 50% chance of rain/snow for central and northern OK Saturday night. Still several days out. There could be a distinct line across Oklahoma where rain changes to snow, and when it happens Saturday evening.

I'm rooting for Ice Bowl 2 so I'll feel even more warm & cozy watching it at home on the big screen!

So this upcoming weekend's snow potential is still up in the air. NAM and GFS aren't on the same page at all...

GFS is slower and further west and north.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/11/30/00/GFS_3_2011113000_F102_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

NAM is faster and covers most of Western OK is some accumulation a day earlier.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2011/11/30/00/NAM_221_2011113000_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

---
---
---
NAM is faster and covers most of Western OK is some accumulation a day earlier.
---


pZiadb3bpOI

to warm you up a little bit, we officially had the hottest summer ever for any state. there was some debate earlier about texas being the hottest, but we beat them.
http://blog.newsok.com/weather/2011/11/30/summer-2011-in-oklahoma-officially-hottest-summer-period-for-any-state-since-records-began-in-1895/

The NWS has upped the chance for rain in Stillwater on Saturday to 80%, but dropping to 40% that night. Optimistically speaking, maybe most of the rain will be winding down or even finished by game time.

GO COWBOYS, BEAT OU!

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

The NWS has upped the chance for rain in Stillwater on Saturday to 80%, but dropping to 40% that night. Optimistically speaking, maybe most of the rain will be winding down or even finished by game time.

GO COWBOYS, BEAT OU!


Given the history of this series it means the forecast will still call for a 90%+ chance of a poke choke, regardless of the weather.

Given the history of this series it means the forecast will still call for a 90%+ chance of a poke choke, regardless of the weather.

LOL you're going to be the most upset and the one venting the most on here if OSU beats OU. =/

LOL you're going to be the most upset and the one venting the most on here if OSU beats OU. =/

No your wrong.... Sure I wouldn’t like it but I also know that it has happened so infrequently that it would not be an event worthy of getting too upset about. After all it’s one of the more lopsided series in all of college sports. OU has held OSU scoreless more times than OSU has even beaten OU (not 100% sure but I believe this is 28 to 16). OSU has beaten OU 5 times in history in Stillwater.

No your wrong.... Sure I wouldn’t like it but I also know that it has happened so infrequently that it would not be an event worthy of getting too upset about. After all it’s one of the more lopsided series in all of college sports. OU has held OSU scoreless more times than OSU has even beaten OU (not 100% sure but I believe this is 28 to 16). OSU has beaten OU 5 times in history in Stillwater.

I believe you're correct on OU shutting out OSU 28 times and I know you're correct on OSU only winning 16 times. I think that OSU has won 6 times in Stillwater but same difference; but this is the weather thread. LOL

BTW, I was just joking about what I said, don't get to worked up, it's bad for your health. LOL

Bedlam is apples and oranges.. back to weather.

Bedlam is apples and oranges.. back to weather.

Literally. =) but anyways, is it still looking like it's going to snow here in the next few weeks because I'm going to be out a lot between now and Christmas and I don't want to get caught up in any of that mess if at all avoidable.

Hell, I have to move this weekend!

Anything new on what's going to happen this weekend, weather wise.

Aaron Tuttle posted this on his Facebook weather page:


WOW! On Wednesday I said: "Latest computer data still saying much to do about nothing for this weekend but boy are they teasing next week starting Monday!" Little did I know when I came into work today and glanced at the models that the NAM paints 14" of snow over OK on Monday! I need to look at more data before sounding the alarms. Would like to see other models agree. This is getting fun!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

14" of snow??! On Monday?? Oh lord...

Another update from AT:

WX UPDATE: Okay, I've looked over all the models. They all agree on many aspects. The main difference is that 2 of the 6 says heavy precip across central OK, the rest say the bullseye is across SE OK and N/NE TX. That difference means less snow/sleet totals in the metro or massive totals depending on which model is correct. As of now it looks like light wintry mix breaks out late Sunday afternoon, rain/sleet/snow then transitions to all snow Monday morning through afternoon before winding down. Winds may get up to around 50 mph. Could be a significant ice/sleet storm just SE of the I-44 corridor into SE OK if temps chill enough. Across central OK snow totals will depend on how much sleet is mixed in at the beginning. Several inches is definitely likely.

14" of snow??! On Monday?? Oh lord...

No way. I refuse to believe it.

Are you talking about this upcoming Monday? Both Channel 9 and TWC says clear but cold.