The predictor is the model's prediction. Mike has his prediction on the 7 dayS forecast.

Dude, I get that. What I'm saying IS just use the same numbers. That's like two people giving one person totally different directions to the same place!

This exactly. The clay isn't going to handle a lot of water in a short period of time.

As far as the winter outlooks...being dry is the worst thing that can happen. Hopefully we see a continuous snow pack to help replenish the ground moisture. Not 12 inches in day...think more 12 inches over a couple of weeks. Doesn't impact driving much, keeps things pretty, but keeps the ground covered so it can be absorbed.

Nevertheless, no flood watches out and so I'm not at all surprised. Perhaps the rains are NOT expected to be very hard.

Nevertheless, no flood watches out and so I'm not at all surprised. Perhaps the rains are NOT expected to be very hard.

Their morning discussion summed it up pretty well.


CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS PUBLIC ATTENTION TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES IS LIKELY TO BE LOW IN THE MIDST OF AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS /OF COURSE/ RELATIVELY HIGH AND DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED FOR HEIGHTENED FLOODING POTENTIAL WHICH MAY NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND THE HWO BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

So looks like it gets pushed to the PM crew if they want to do it or not. Either way, the rain is picking up. Areas west of US-81 have started to report areas of at least a half inch if not well over an inch now.

A line of storms extend right along US 81 are moving to the East EXTREMELY slowly...around 10 to 15 mph. This puts it still 2-4 hours outside of the Metro area if it keeps moving. Wind are gusting pretty good ahead of the line and temps in the mid 80s. Behind it, temps in the mid 60s and winds are pretty light... 5 to 15 mph.

Severe weather is a possibility, but a very low chance. Tornado risk today is around 2%...but think more cold air type stuff, not Mid-Spring supercells.

Large rain shield is mainly west of a north-south line that is about 25 miles to the west of I-35. From that area to the east to about 35 miles to the east of I-35 is an area of scattered showers and a few storms. Further east from there is most isolated activity that is really struggling. The earlier line got to the east of I-35 and just fell apart. Eventually the rain shield should come east a bit more, but will be very slow to do so.

Flood watches are up for SW Oklahoma.

Mesonet Precip Reports: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/rainfall

Precip Last 24 Hours
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

How long is it suppose to rain like this venture?

So people at the OSU game didn't get real soaked. The jet stream is moving straight north so eastward movement of this system is very slow.

How long is it suppose to rain like this venture?

Through tomorrow, then scattered stuff for a few days.


So people at the OSU game didn't get real soaked. The jet stream is moving straight north so eastward movement of this system is very slow.

Yeah. The models were very consistent on a very sharp cut off of the eastward progression of this. Tulsa could very well stay completely dry or at least miss out on any decent rainfall.

Nonstop rain here....from market to mom's house that I know of. Lots of heavy rain. Storm drain is bout 4 feet high with water. Will check later on rain totals. Oh, just want to say that its funny how that guy, the one posted a facepalm pic, must be feeling really stupid now. LoL

I have a picture of Taz in the rain wearing his first raincoat. There was a short rain break, so he went out to pee. I will post it when I can.

Thunder, he was facepalming because you said "The Weekend of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday." By default, those days are generally referred to as the weekend. That statement could mean this weekend, next weekend, etc. lol.

I was being specific as much as possible. :-(

Rain is starting to move out a bit. Metro area has about another 3-4 hours of rain before it lightens up a bunch. Hopefully it sticks around a bit longer, but things seem to be drying up quick out west. Didn't get the insane amounts the models were tossing out, which is good since this was relatively short term in duration.

Around 2 to 2.5 inches in the Metro area so far, and another batch of heavy rain will be moving in from the south in the next hour.

Thunder, he was facepalming because you said "The Weekend of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday." By default, those days are generally referred to as the weekend. That statement could mean this weekend, next weekend, etc. lol.

I was thinking it was the over dramatization that warranted the face palm.

Might get a little extension to the moderate rain in Central OK. Back edge is sliding east very slowly, but dry air is sliding up from the southwest. This is morning North/Northeast about 25 mph. So while the main band may not officially be east of us, it looks like the bulk of precip will get choked off from the south. Rain totals for the metro area are now 3 to 4" west of I-35 and 1 to 3" east of I-35.

This should help out our pitiful lakes a little right?

I moved furniture between 2 & 5:30 today... it was FUN!! As far as Lake Hefner goes, I couldn't see any lake bottom between the parkway and Stars & Stripes Park so its been filling up!

I moved furniture between 2 & 5:30 today... it was FUN!! As far as Lake Hefner goes, I couldn't see any lake bottom between the parkway and Stars & Stripes Park so its been filling up!

Water from Canton should be on the way also. They said they were going to wait until it rains.

in my ace hardware rain gauge in my backyard in northwest edmond, i got 5" total over the weekend. not sure how accurate it is, but either way, got a nice healthy dose of precipitation...

I got 5 3/4" near 23rd and May.

Good graphic showing what we still need to take care of the drought...roughly another 15 inches or so for Central OK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

I was thinking it was the over dramatization that warranted the face palm.

Might have been the RED ALERT

Any chance moisture from Hurricane Jova that will hit near Manzanillo, MX in the next couple days makes its way north toward Oklahoma?

Any chance moisture from Hurricane Jova that will hit near Manzanillo, MX in the next couple days makes its way north toward Oklahoma?

Didn't look like it the last I looked at the model run. Keeps the moisture down south, but we can always hope.

Today...Slight Risk of Severe Weather out West.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WRN PARTS OF TX/OK...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROPAGATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A PACIFIC FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS.

STEEPENING LOW- TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
E OF LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD
FROM THE ROCKIES MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL STILL APPROACH 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD.
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG INTENSIFYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- APPEARS TO BE OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PNHDLS INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK. HERE...THE EXIT REGION OF MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

Nice storms out there.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/damon14.jpg

God, thank you for answering our prayers. We are forever more deeper in our debt to you.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full6.jpg

Let there be snow! Let there be snow! This kind of weather brings us together watching Venture's show!

Updated Long Term Outlook Through the 28th

Thursday, October 13, 2011 -- Highs 70s. Dry.

Friday, October 14, 2011 -- Highs Upper 60s NW, Low 80s SE. Dry.

Saturday, October 15, 2011 -- Highs Upper 60s NW, Low 80s SE. Dry.

Sunday, October 16, 2011 -- Highs 70s & 80s. Dry.

Monday, October 17, 2011 -- Highs 70s & 80s. Dry.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011 -- Highs 60s North, 70s South. Dry.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011 -- Highs 60s. Dry.

Thursday, October 20, 2011 -- Highs 60s. Dry.

Friday, October 21, 2011 -- Highs 60s North, 70s South

Saturday, October 22, 2011 -- Highs 60s/70s Early Falling to 40s by Evening. Showers possible statewide. Potential for some rain/snow mix in the far NW part of OK.

Sunday, October 23, 2011 -- Highs 40s to near 50. Lows upper 30s north, 40s elsewhere. Heavy rain Southern OK, light Rain Central. Dry Northern OK.

Monday, October 24, 2011 -- Lows 30s. Highs 40s to low 50s west. Dry.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011 -- Lows low 30s East (Freeze Possible), Mid 40s SW. Highs 50s west to 40s east. Dry.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011 -- Lows 30s East to 40s west. Highs 50s. Showers possible.

Thursday, October 27, 2011 -- Highs 50 east to 60s west.

Friday, October 28, 2011 -- Highs 50s north to 60s south.

Guys, I think ya'all should start hitting the stores now for emergency supplies. Ya'all don't want to wait until the last minute.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/damon14.jpg

God, thank you for answering our prayers. We are forever more deeper in our debt to you.

So...what do we say to him about the horrific drought? If he brings us rain, doesn't he also not bring it?

Thanks a lot Thunder, you turned this into a religous debate. :LolLolLol

So...what do we say to him about the horrific drought? If he brings us rain, doesn't he also not bring it?

Well, the past several months proved to us all just how bad Oklahomans have been. God has His own ways when deciding punishments. It took the few to pray and plead to God to redeliver rain to the state. God heard them and mysteriously took care of them, even though it may not be something they were wanting, but He provided something to them to at least help them through until He felt it was appropriate to release the rain. God is full of love and compassion. The sinning Oklahomans enjoyed the rain, but they should know the power that be behind the rain. As you all know, God works in a mysterious way. The rain that we all have seen may not have all been good. For example, the sinners coming in direct contact with each and every raindrop onto their skins may have unknowingly come in contact with radioactive (or maybe acid) raindrop quality while all the others enjoyed purity. Things are not always as they seem to be. Just know that God is always watching, always working, always thinking, always delivering, and definitely always punishing. We are at the mercy of God.

Well, the past several months proved to us all just how bad Oklahomans have been. God has His own ways when deciding punishments. It took the few to pray and plead to God to redeliver rain to the state. God heard them and mysteriously took care of them, even though it may not be something they were wanting, but He provided something to them to at least help them through until He felt it was appropriate to release the rain. God is full of love and compassion. The sinning Oklahomans enjoyed the rain, but they should know the power that be behind the rain. As you all know, God works in a mysterious way. The rain that we all have seen may not have all been good. For example, the sinners coming in direct contact with each and every raindrop onto their skins may have unknowingly come in contact with radioactive (or maybe acid) raindrop quality while all the others enjoyed purity. Things are not always as they seem to be. Just know that God is always watching, always working, always thinking, always delivering, and definitely always punishing. We are at the mercy of God.

So I take it you went to church last night? ;-)

If you would like to discuss the interventions of a divine in the weather, take it to another thread or the politics section please. :-P

So I take it you went to church last night? ;-)

No, I did not, and have not been to one in quite a while. :-O


If you would like to discuss the interventions of a divine in the weather, take it to another thread or the politics section please. :-P

And this concludes the discussion of God & Weather. Now back to Venture.

I was waiting for this today as it updates every Thursday. Very happy that NWS decided to start downgrading to Extreme. Its rare for NWS to ever give us a glimmer of hope.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full3.jpg

Hey, venture -- my sister was asking me about winter weather predictions after she heard someone comment that this coming winter was supposed to be pretty bad. What have you heard? I thought we were in for another La Nina year (i.e. dry, above average temps, etc.)?

About the "religion" comment...sorry, couldn't let that one slide.

Hey, venture -- my sister was asking me about winter weather predictions after she heard someone comment that this coming winter was supposed to be pretty bad. What have you heard? I thought we were in for another La Nina year (i.e. dry, above average temps, etc.)?

About the "religion" comment...sorry, couldn't let that one slide.

Well, it depends on how you define bad. How often/frequent. And the length of each of such bad episode.

But just know this, (excuse me, Venture) Praise the Lord each and every time it snows. :-)

I was waiting for this today as it updates every Thursday. Very happy that NWS decided to start downgrading to Extreme. Its rare for NWS to ever give us a glimmer of hope.

What a horribly inaccurate statement. The NWS can't simply say "oh it has gotten better" when nothing has occurred to improve drought conditions. Please save commentary on what the NWS should or shouldn't do until you decide to research things a bit more thoroughly.


Hey, venture -- my sister was asking me about winter weather predictions after she heard someone comment that this coming winter was supposed to be pretty bad. What have you heard? I thought we were in for another La Nina year (i.e. dry, above average temps, etc.)?

About the "religion" comment...sorry, couldn't let that one slide.

Yeah it will be another La Nina year. So dry and temps around average or slightly above. However, that doesn't mean we won't see extreme swings in temps and conditions. We had a few major winter storms last year, as we all remember, so La Nina doesn't mean zero snow. However, it would be a good point to make that the moisture content of the snow we got was extremely low.

Hey, venture -- my sister was asking me about winter weather predictions after she heard someone comment that this coming winter was supposed to be pretty bad. What have you heard? I thought we were in for another La Nina year (i.e. dry, above average temps, etc.)?

About the "religion" comment...sorry, couldn't let that one slide.

I was just being silly, no need to apologize for it. :-)

I was just being silly, no need to apologize for it. :-)

I wasn't apologizing to you, dear ;) I was apologizing to venture lol. But that's okay.

Venture -- I pretty much told my sister what you just told me. I don't know what weather person she had listened to, but they were pretty gung-ho on it being a wet winter! Funny where some of them come up with this stuff.

I remember once, years and years ago back home (when we got mostly Dallas stations in southern OK) a Dallas weatherman, a well-respected man, said something along the lines of trying to predict winter weather more than 3-6 hours out in this area of the country was a total crapshoot, and anyone who tries is going to make a fool of themselves! I tend to agree with him. I wish I could remember his name. It was an ABC affiliate.

Yeah predicting winter weather here is nothing like up north where I grew up. Though it was fun trying to figure out the impact of the Lakes based on the wind and if any enhancement was going to accompany any system and such. Here it really is complex since moisture can be a pain to get during the winter and systems tend to really shut down quick instead of a gradual decrease in precip amounts. There definitely was no way anyone was going to predict we would get as much snow as we did last year or that a part of the state would see the all time record low temp of 31 below.

I wasn't apologizing to you, dear ;) I was apologizing to venture lol. But that's okay.

Venture -- I pretty much told my sister what you just told me. I don't know what weather person she had listened to, but they were pretty gung-ho on it being a wet winter! Funny where some of them come up with this stuff.

I remember once, years and years ago back home (when we got mostly Dallas stations in southern OK) a Dallas weatherman, a well-respected man, said something along the lines of trying to predict winter weather more than 3-6 hours out in this area of the country was a total crapshoot, and anyone who tries is going to make a fool of themselves! I tend to agree with him. I wish I could remember his name. It was an ABC affiliate.

I know, I'm just saying you don't have to. Lol but anyways... :backtotop

Yeah predicting winter weather here is nothing like up north where I grew up. Though it was fun trying to figure out the impact of the Lakes based on the wind and if any enhancement was going to accompany any system and such. Here it really is complex since moisture can be a pain to get during the winter and systems tend to really shut down quick instead of a gradual decrease in precip amounts. There definitely was no way anyone was going to predict we would get as much snow as we did last year or that a part of the state would see the all time record low temp of 31 below.

But, predicting weather around here means you get to use tornado as a verb AND the phrase "dry slot" without people batting an eye ;)

I know, I'm just saying you don't have to. Lol but anyways... :backtotop

I really should refrain from posting before 7am. But that's usually the time I'm on here lol.

It was interesting how one swath of the state through mid-section received 3-5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts and either side received much less with areas less than 50 miles to the east receiving less than an inch. Tulsa and other areas of eastern OK only received about half an inch but then far NE OK and into NW AR received over 2 inches the following day. Very strange storm system that helped some but didn't spread the rain very evenly. What is needed is a typical fall rain event where most of the state sees 1-2 inches over several days with intermittent showers and cloudy skies. And then a couple more of those...

always wondering what the hell you are talking about... oh he also said to knock off the RED ALERT and being dramatic stuff.


sorry... this was to go with Thunder's God post

Models are showing storms forming along and east of 35 during the early evening on Monday. Very slight severe weather threat. Hopefully it provides some good rain for the east metro and beyond which didn't get much last time.

Uhhhh I plan to be downtown taking pix...

Cold front is just about completely out of the Metro area. Risk of storms/rain has gone with it. Get ready for a bit of Fall. Frost seems likely coming up as well...Weds & Thursday.

No more A/C for awhile...hopefully.

Cold front is just about completely out of the Metro area. Risk of storms/rain has gone with it. Get ready for a bit of Fall. Frost seems likely coming up as well...Weds & Thursday.

No more A/C for awhile...hopefully.

"like"

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/last365daystot.png

What to expect early Thursday morning. :LolLolLol

http://4warnstormteam.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/blog_03202709a.jpg

(waits for the panic button)

Yawn. Isn't that from last year? It certainly isn't on their website today.

T, as you like snow so much, maybe you ought to look into you and Taz going to eastern Wyoming for the next six or seven months.
They've already had one decent snowfall, to the delight of the world's bestest grandbabies. My daughter doesn't really share their happiness over snow in earlyish October but concedes they had great fun building the snowman.

Not to jump the gun too much but speaking of winter..

Venture, would you say this guy is reliable? http://oklahomachaser18.blogspot.com/2011/10/another-wild-winter-ahead.html

Not being very knowledgeable on the subject of meteorology so not sure if he's trustworthy or not. I have to say I do like following your reports better than the Doom=Ratings card the local TV news guys like to play all the time, so another good source would be great.

I was thinking La Nina meant a typically milder winter, but he's got us painted as Wintry Battlezone. Thoughts on this?

(edit: actually, I don't know where I saw that about La Nina. I think I might just be using buzzwords and confused between the two)

Typically La Nina gives us milder and dryer winters. However, look at last winter and what it gave us. I don't put a ton of faith in long range forecasts on what type of winter we'll have. A mild and dry winter could set us up for temps in the 40s and 50s for most of it with little precip, but then we could also have 1 or 2 major snow or ice storms mixed in. I think it is easy to get wrapped into generalized terms used in these long range outlooks, but the details can paint a much different picture.

Side note...Freeze Warning is up for much of the state - except extreme southwest and south central sections - for tonight, so if you have potted plants outside bring them in if you haven't already.

i love this weather no more 100 degree weather

http://images.ibsys.com/okl/images/weather/auto/7dayforecast_640x480.jpg

http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kwtv/weather/updated/7day_full.JPG
here is channel 5 forecast and 9

i love this weather no more 100 degree weather

It won't last long. It will be freezing cold before you know it. Unless you like cold weather.

According to the TV a major cold front is expected by late next week.

It won't last long. It will be freezing cold before you know it. Unless you like cold weather.

I'm loving this. Of course, I grew up in the Great Lakes so I miss the cooler weather in the Fall. However, I do love Spring down here with those nice humid days with temps in the 70s. Working on the new extended forecast now.