Weather update...

Line of strong storms is running Stillwater to OKC to Ninnekah/Chickasha area. They are moving almost due east. Also an outflow boundary from earlier storms is moving south of a Norman to Ada line. Storms are firing ahead of the main line just behind the outflow boundary.

Main threats tonight should be noise (which most of us already know that LOL)...lightning, heavy rain, and maybe a few small hail stones here and there. Winds could get a bit gusty, but nothing unusual for Oklahoma.

Slight Risk for Sunday is mainly along and east of I-44 tomorrow.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL
TX...

...SERN KS/SWRN MO TO CNTRL TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST AT
ROUGHLY 30KT WHICH WOULD PLACE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...SSWWD INTO CNTRL TX BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY LAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY UP TO 100MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THUS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SLGT RISK WARM SECTOR AS
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO FULLY DESTABILIZE. GIVEN THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS KS/MO...SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX. THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE
EWD EXTENT OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO THAT REGION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
INTO CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE MAY
EVOLVE BY 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AS
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. EVEN
SO...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/18/2011

Yeah, I didn't realize much of the "game day" until after the closing of Oklahoma's #1 Market when I turned out the lights, check around the areas, and seeing OU game starting on the big screen.

Hopefully the next time Venture attempts the new chat software that there will be support. I just felt bad and hurt for Venture to sit there waiting and leaving. I did a typical "Live Wire" joke at him, but he didn't respond, so that says he was in a bad mood. :-( Sorry, Venture, hope it works next time.

I think you presume too much about Venture's mood and evening activities.

Storms will be starting tonight and last through tomorrow. Nothing severe from the looks of it, but noise and a good deal of rain. High rain totals look like they will be south of I-40. So the south Metro will be the most likely areas to see the highest totals.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg

This is great news!!!

Thank you, Venture, for doing the Indian rain dance!

Yeah! Forecast becoming confirmed. As of 1 AM, 9/22/11, rain is falling in most of northern Oklahoma.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

I love waking up to rain.

^I don't. Makes me want to stay in bed :P. But I really like that we are getting more rain. The more the merrier, because it looks pretty dry through next week. Unless any short wave troughs come through with that cut-off low forming to our east next week.

What's this strange stuff falling from the sky? Not sure I've seen it before :)

What's this strange stuff falling from the sky? Not sure I've seen it before :)

It's a weather phenom known as the Redneck Rinse ... happens 1-3 times every year around mid-september.

Its too cold! Why can't we just enjoy a gradual shift thru the neutral/mild temps?! :-(

Its too cold! Why can't we just enjoy a gradual shift thru the neutral/mild temps?! :-(

Pfft. Hardly. Bring on the snow. :-P Seriously though, I'm over the 80s and ready for Fall. Lows in the 40s highs in the upper 60s. Paradise.

Is there anything to happen anytime soon? I don't think we will have our second mini severe weather season this year. Just that one time recently, but it didn't even come close to it. October is just around the corner and such time is coming when we all will wake up seeing closures across our televisions due to unexpected and unpredicted snowstorm. NWS still have us in such dire drought situation. On that topic of NWS, they suck big time. With their changeover to a different site, they have been quite lazy...doing less work. Almost every day, there is nothing fun or interesting to look at. There are less amount of graphics to enjoy. And the few graphics they do work on are just so old-style and ugly. Wake up, NWS, or else there will be a Wake Up NWS website. :-/

Boring. Boring weather is boring. Oklahoma gone to sleep. Boring. Boring weather is boring. Oh where, oh where have our extreme weather gone? Oh where, oh where can it be? With us sitting here and Venture doing God knows what, oh where, oh where have our extreme weather gone? :'-(

Its too cold! Why can't we just enjoy a gradual shift thru the neutral/mild temps?! :-(

Too cold, here, you have to be kidding, the weathers perfect. Great for golf, hiking, camping, bike riding, etc;

Thunder,

Make up your mind -- do you want a gradual shift from one season to another, or extreme weather? Can you not just appreciate the nice weather that we have?

I've had enough of extreme weather -- power outages, floods, droughts, too hot and too cold, snow to my waist -- it's not all fun and games.

Hey, venture, what's on tap about a possible pattern change next week (around 5-6 Oct)? Big rain event on tap, or just an increase in POP, or too early to tell?

Busy day today, so let me get squared away on what the extended looks like...

Weds 28th - Very Warm and Dry. Highs 80s and 90s.
Thurs 29th - Warm. Temps 70s north, near 90 south.
Friday 30th - Nice. Temps 60s to 70s.
Sat 1st - Nice. Chance of rain NW. Temps 70s.
Sun 2nd - Nice again with very slight chance of rain NW. Temps 70s near 80 west.
Mon 3rd - Dry. Temps 70s to near 80.
Tues 4th - Dry. Temps 70s.
Weds 5th - Dry. Temps 70s west, 60s east.
Thurs 6th - Showers and Storms statewide, mostly light amounts though. Temps mainly in the 70s.
Friday 7th - Showers and Storms, mainly east of I-35. Chance of severe weather will be SE Oklahoma. Heavy rain possible in Eastern OK with over 1 inch possible. Temps 60s to low 70s.
Sat 8th - Showers/Storms very early in the SE, dry elsewhere. Temps 60s, 70s south.
Sun 9th - Dry. Temps 60s to 70s west.
Mon 10th - Dry. Temps 60s and 70s.
Tues 11th - Chance of a shower south, otherwise dry. Temps 50s north, 60s south.
Weds 12th - Maybe a shower but should be dry. Temps in the 50s to near 60.

So a couple notes.
- No snow yet. *pout* LOL
- Mostly dry going forward, but there is a pattern change to get into a Fall mode. Only one real good shot of rain, so hopefully things slow up a bit to make it more statewide.
- Severe weather looks fairly limited...but we need to remember 1998 when we had the outbreak of 20+ tornadoes on the 22nd (?) of the month. Things can still happen.
- Clipper systems will start showing up in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes towards the end. Don't be shocked if someone sees a snowflake during the next 2 weeks.
- The first real push of cold air for the season comes in towards the second half of the forecast period. It isn't a major blast at all (still got a few months for that), but it is a definite shift to get rid of these Summer like temps.
- GFS has a hurricane moving up through the Caribbean by the middle part of October...but we know how that goes with long range forecasts.

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

Serious trouble. We'll be thrown into all sort of crisis.

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

It'll make for a pretty rough fire season this winter and next summer if it happens. La Nina getting strong...yeah not looking good. Pray for a bunch of snow (not all at once) this winter that is fairly high in moisture quality. If we can get the snow to stick around and really help soak the ground underneath it that would be even better.

Jesus, help the state of Oklahoma to recieve moisture so we don't all burn. Make it snow a lot and turn our state in to a vast wonderland of white as we play in it like children. And let the rain come back and show us it's wet, beautiful face again next spring and a little bit before winter. In Jesus name, Amen.

Id take gobs of rain anyday over snow. Isnt on average 10 inches of snow measures out to about an inch of rain?

Id take gobs of rain anyday over snow. Isnt on average 10 inches of snow measures out to about an inch of rain?

On average yes, but not for us last winter. During the major snow events we were running a 20 to 25 to 1 ratio which is pretty unheard of down here. If we had a higher moisture content to the snow we would not have received the vast totals we did as it would have compacted faster. There is a vast difference with a gradual wet snow that accumulates over extended periods of time versus a dry powder that gets blown around easily. If it is going to be cold, I would definitely not take the rain. I'd rather have a clean/bright outdoors instead of a dead muddy gray winter. Also building up a good wet snow pack does wonders for putting moisture back into the top soil - as well as preserving plants for the following Spring.

Did KFOR weather just forecast a 90 degree high for next week? Jeesh enough is enough bring on the permament cooler temps.

Cool video of the deep upper low over the midwest that's affecting weather on the East Coast.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGE1-NiFRZE

When did this happen and what kind of weather? Those clouds are moving really fast. :-O

When did this happen and what kind of weather? Those clouds are moving really fast. :-O

That is what has been on going this week. The clouds are moving fast due to the time lapse on the image. :-) It would help us out a ton here if we could get a closed off low like that to just keep producing rain for an extended period. However, here we sit high and dry.

Here's a less dramtic look at the deep low: http://stillwaterweather.com/sat.php#Real

venture,

Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

venture,

Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

I keep hearing speculation about storms moving in for that weekend. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Few potential severe weather days showing up with tonight's model run. Not going to get into specifics, just pointing out dates.

October 7th - along and east of I-35
October 10th - Central OK
October 13th - Northern & Western OK

Colder air also looks to be really wanting to move in during the middle of October. Highs in the 40s and 50s over most of the state. We'll see if this materializes.

Long term forecast still shows things getting colder by mid month. Highs in the 40s and 50s in the state. There is some snow showing up as a possibility in areas from the Lower Great Lakes up through Minnesota. Would imagine this time of year the amounts would be very light and mostly mixed with rain.

Snow in Oklahoma is possible in late October. I remember as a kid in the early 90's there being 2" of snow on the ground while trick-o-treating in Tulsa on Halloween.

The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook is now indicating the possibility for severe weather next weekend.

Hi Venture,

Its me again, Thunder, and I have a movie suggestion for you.

http://movies.netflix.com/WiMovie/Lightning_Fire_from_the_Sky/70030933?trkid=3264467

If you are still a loyal Netflix customer, you can enjoy Instant Streaming for Lightning: Fire from the Sky. It is a weather movie (the cop sure is cute). I'd like your opinion on the cop's son's solution to end the weather and if its logical/possible or not. :-)

venture,
Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

It looks like the system will slow down and won't affect N Texas/Oklahoma until late Saturday night or more likely Sunday. Still a big ? whether there will be enough low level moisture for widespread rain and thunderstorms. The low might track too far north...we should know more by mid-week.

It looks like temps in the high 70's/ low 80's for the game in Dallas. Some more cloud cover would be nice.

Extended outlook based on the 00Z GFS for 10/04/11...

Tues 10/04 - Warm and dry. Highs in the 80s.
Weds 10/05 - Warm and dry with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Thurs 10/06 - Warm with temps in the 70s. Chance of rain far Western OK.
Fri 10/07 - Warm and dry early. Temps in the 70s. Storms likely in Western OK late with some heavy rain. Severe risk very low.
Sat 10/08 - Showers and storms likely. Heavy rain possible especially in Western and Southern OK. Very low severe risk. Temps 60s and 70s.
Sun 10/09 - Scattered showers and storms likely. Rain amounts should be lighter. Best chances Central and SW OK. Temps 60s and 70s.
Mon 10/10 - Isolated storms/showers in Western OK, otherwise dry. Temps 70s. Could see a severe storm.
Tue 10/11 - Slight chance NW OK, dry elsewhere. Could have a strong storm. Temps in the 70s.
Weds 10/12 - Dry with temps in the 70s.
Thurs 10/13 - Dry with temps in the 70s.
Fri 10/14 - Slight chance for SE OK, otherwise dry with temps in the 70s.
Sat 10/15 - Dry with temps in the 60s and 70s.
Sun 10/16 - Chance NW OK early, then dry. Temps in the 70s.
Mon 10/17 - Dry and temps in the 70s.
Tues 10/18 - Chance of storms Central and Southern OK early and into Eastern late. Temps in the 70s and 80. Severe weather possible.
Weds 10/19 - Falling temps with passing cold front. Early highs in the 70s and 80s falling into the 50s. Chance of rain mainly I-35 and to the east.

Winter Weather Outlook
- Potential for some accumulating snow in the Northern Plains by October 17th through 19th.

Hi Venture,

Its me again, Thunder, and I have a movie suggestion for you.

http://movies.netflix.com/WiMovie/Lightning_Fire_from_the_Sky/70030933?trkid=3264467

If you are still a loyal Netflix customer, you can enjoy Instant Streaming for Lightning: Fire from the Sky. It is a weather movie (the cop sure is cute). I'd like your opinion on the cop's son's solution to end the weather and if its logical/possible or not. :-)

^^^ What about this? :-(

Chance increasing for some heavy rain in the state this weekend. New GFS tonight paints a good 3 to 4 inches over Central OK with some areas getting 6" or more. We'll see if this even happens, but this would help put a nice dent in the drought...if it doesn't come in a pour down.

Making some updates/changes to the SS website as we head into the winter season. Hopefully it'll be easier to navigate and such. Still a work in progress, but slowly coming together: http://www.storm-scope.com/

Chance increasing for some heavy rain in the state this weekend. New GFS tonight paints a good 3 to 4 inches over Central OK with some areas getting 6" or more. We'll see if this even happens, but this would help put a nice dent in the drought...if it doesn't come in a pour down.

Making some updates/changes to the SS website as we head into the winter season. Hopefully it'll be easier to navigate and such. Still a work in progress, but slowly coming together: http://www.storm-scope.com/

I pray to God that you're right dude.

I pray to God that you're right dude.

Ditto....
I hope we get at the minimum 3-4 inches of rain here in the metro area.

RED ALERT!

We will be receiving excessive rainfalls during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday weekend!

http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/298010_298357970178126_194973683849889_1382018_585 890956_n.jpg

http://www.straferight.com/photopost/data/500/medium/double-facepalm.jpg

I saw that Red Alert and thought for a sec i was on the bridge of the starship Enterprise.
Hopefully that will move a tad eastward and we get several inches.

Comparing today's 12Z and 18Z GFS runs, still don't have a clear idea on what part of the state will get the heavy rain - just that it will happen.

12Z GFS has...
Less than 0.50" - Far East OK
0.5 to 1" - Eastern 1/3rd and NW OK
1" to 2" - SW and most of Central 1/3rd
2 to 4" - South Central generally east of I-35, south of I-40, and west of US 75.

18Z is...
Less than 0.5" - Eastern 1/3rd, with far Eastern OK completely dry
0.5 to 1.5" - Central 1/3rd-ish of OK
1.5 o 4 inches - Western OK

It is all going to come down to the speed of the system moving in. Too slow, we could go dry.

12Z GFS is pretty close to yesterday's 18Z.

Less than 1" Eastern 1/3rd
1 to 3" Central 1/3rd
2 to 5" Western 1/3rd

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday weekend? What days are normally weekends besides those?

00Z GFS has slowed down and has shifted most precip to mainly Western OK now. We'll see if this translates to what actually happens. Precip amounts have also gone up.

Eastern 1/3rd of Oklahoma
- Southern half...Mostly Dry.
- Northern half...Less than a half inch.

Central 1/3rd of Oklahoma
- Southern Half... < 0.50" up to 3" moving east to west.
- Northern Half... 1" to 3" moving east to west.

Western 1/3rd of Oklahoma
- Northern Half... 2" to 6"
- Southern Half... 6" to 9"

Kinda crazy amounts of rain, but we'll see what happens. Good news for the western part of our state, not so for the Central sections as the chance has increased we could stay dry.

Hey, if it fill up Canton Lake, that's good for us!

Hey, if it fill up Canton Lake, that's good for us!

Filling up Canton Lake doesn't help keep your property from catching fire. :-P Not to mention doesn't do much for surrounding areas that would be forced to buy water from OKC. Luckily water usage is down so that really isn't needed now.

Filling up Canton Lake doesn't help keep your property from catching fire. :-P Not to mention doesn't do much for surrounding areas that would be forced to buy water from OKC. Luckily water usage is down so that really isn't needed now.

I'm sure the farmers and ranchers, the folks that feed most of us in one way or another, are appreciative of whatever rain they get. I'd rather see it rain on farm or ranch lands before we get it here in the city. I've got sprinklers that will do that for me.

Filling up Canton Lake doesn't help keep your property from catching fire. :-P Not to mention doesn't do much for surrounding areas that would be forced to buy water from OKC. Luckily water usage is down so that really isn't needed now.

There really hasn't been a fire outbreak lately, so I'm not really concerned there. If that lake fills well, they'll surely release water downstream. I must see this lake some day.

There really hasn't been a fire outbreak lately, so I'm not really concerned there. If that lake fills well, they'll surely release water downstream. I must see this lake some day.

We are entering our next major fire season over the next few weeks that will last until March. If you notice the wind has been generally calm (for Oklahoma) the last month or two. What vegetation did manage to green up will start to go dormant for the winter here soon and the wind will be back, like today. It is about prevention not "Oh look, we just had a major fire outbreak...alright guess we can use some rain now." Concern should be placed on what is to come, combining an already exceptional drought with a new bought from La Nina, and we need to get as much moisture if at all possible into the soil here.

Let me retract... concern for places where there is dried out vegitation BUT as far as where I live in the city, there's not enough vegitation around me to cook a slab of steak for free so that's why I could care less. Its the fools not using candles properly that I'm concerned about.

Local weather said the metro might get an inch or an inch and a half. I hope they are incorrect and we get closer to 3-5 inches.

Well, what I don't understand is that Mike Morgan had his predictor forecasting 3.8 for the metro and then he put the 1-1.5 on his 7 day planner...

The predictor is the model's prediction. Mike has his prediction on the 7 dayS forecast.

Forecast period is covered by NAM and GFS now. Someone is going to get a ton of rain. Don't be shocked to see Flood Watches go up early this morning.

NE - Northeast, SE - Southeast, NC - North Central, SC - South Central, NW - Northwest, SW - Southwest

NAM Forecast
NE OK - Dry to 0.50"
SE OK - Dry to 0.50"
NC OK - 1.50" to 3.50"
SC OK - 1.00" to 3.00"
NW OK - 3.00" to 8.00"
SW OK - 4.00" to 7.00"

GFS Forecast
NE OK - Dry to 0.50"
SE OK - Dry to 0.50"
NC OK - 1.00" to 3.50"
SC OK - 1.00" to 4.00"
NW OK - 3.00" to 8.00"
SW OK - 4.00" to 6.00"

But, yes, I will be shocked to see flood watches go up as dry as it has been. But then a flood watch isn't as serious as a flood warning. It's so dry I don't think the recent rains did much of anything to make the ponds and lakes go up from what little I've seen. The ground is still thirsty.

Meanwhile, here's a couple of maps trying to forecast the winter. One looks to be nice, the other not so nice:

http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/online_us_weathermap_winter-cmyk_0.jpg

http://gizmodo.com/5847571/chicagoans-might-want-to-stock-up-on-ice-melt

But, yes, I will be shocked to see flood watches go up as dry as it has been. But then a flood watch isn't as serious as a flood warning. It's so dry I don't think the recent rains did much of anything to make the ponds and lakes go up from what little I've seen. The ground is still thirsty.

Meanwhile, here's a couple of maps trying to forecast the winter. One looks to be nice, the other not so nice:

http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/online_us_weathermap_winter-cmyk_0.jpg

http://gizmodo.com/5847571/chicagoans-might-want-to-stock-up-on-ice-melt

How dry it's been has nothing to do with flood watch/warnings, if we get 4 plus inches in a short period, the system can't handle the run off and flooding could still occur.

How dry it's been has nothing to do with flood watch/warnings, if we get 4 plus inches in a short period, the system can't handle the run off and flooding could still occur.

This exactly. The clay isn't going to handle a lot of water in a short period of time.

As far as the winter outlooks...being dry is the worst thing that can happen. Hopefully we see a continuous snow pack to help replenish the ground moisture. Not 12 inches in day...think more 12 inches over a couple of weeks. Doesn't impact driving much, keeps things pretty, but keeps the ground covered so it can be absorbed.