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OKCRT
12-27-2017, 05:48 PM
Every time the state locks someone up for minor drug possession someone is getting paid. So many folks in prison today in Ok because of drug use and or minor possession. I'm not talking about dealers I am talking about people that have been caught with small amounts more than once. This state loves to lock them up and get paid. It's criminal. They really love to lock young woman up that have been charged with dangerous substance. Take a look at the figures, OK is out of control. Take them to court and get a conviction and send them to prison and collect that money. All drug addicts in OK should pack their bags and leave asap....Remember the young lady from Kingfisher that got 8-10 years or so for selling a couple joints? Yes,true story and it's not an isolated thing either. It happens all the time in OK. They get these young folks for minor charges and get them into the system and it's a revolving door. Looks good for the DA getting all those convictions

Rover
12-27-2017, 06:03 PM
Exactly When was Oklahoma booming? When teachers got a raise, when we got a large 2-3000 job factory? Or maybe when the per capita income ranked above the 25th quartile? When we lost oil companies to Houston? When we jailed more people per capita than any other State?You really mean when big oil boomed cause that is the ONLY industry that has historically had boom cycles.
I’m sure you are right. Getting stoned legally is all we need. What a great economic development platform.

bchris02
12-27-2017, 06:03 PM
Every time the state locks someone up for minor drug possession someone is getting paid. So many folks in prison today in Ok because of drug use and or minor possession. I'm not talking about dealers I am talking about people that have been caught with small amounts more than once. This state loves to lock them up and get paid. It's criminal. They really love to lock young woman up that have been charged with dangerous substance. Take a look at the figures, OK is out of control. Take them to court and get a conviction and send them to prison and collect that money. All drug addicts in OK should pack their bags and leave asap....Remember the young lady from Kingfisher that got 8-10 years or so for selling a couple joints? Yes,true story and it's not an isolated thing either. It happens all the time in OK. They get these young folks for minor charges and get them into the system and it's a revolving door. Looks good for the DA getting all those convictions

It's insane to think that OK actually borders Colorado. The two states couldn't possibly be any more different.

bchris02
12-27-2017, 06:06 PM
I’m sure you are right. Getting stoned legally is all we need. What a great economic development platform.

Legal marijuana is big business and the tax revenue would help solve the budget crisis. Just look at Colorado. Legal marijuana is a factor in the current boom that the Denver metro area is experiencing. Oklahoma won't even consider legalizing though. People want to blame Big Pharma and private prisons but the real reason is this is the Bible Belt and the God-fearing Baptists that run this place feel they have a mandate to protect the population from themselves (and make money while doing so).

bchris02
12-27-2017, 06:08 PM
And no...legal weed wouldn't be a magic solution to OK's problem but it could be a piece of the puzzle, especially if the tax money generated from it went to increase teacher salaries and the state was prohibited from cutting existing education funding.

Jersey Boss
12-27-2017, 06:19 PM
Funny, our draconian mj laws were in place while we were booming. So was our awful education situation.
I am pointing to reasons of why population growth is stagnant. You blame it all on a depressed O&G market. If you think putting up road blocks by the state government to alternative energy and the suppression of this industry to promote O&G as well as living in the past on social issues and education is a winning formula, then good luck to ya.

Jersey Boss
12-27-2017, 06:22 PM
I’m sure you are right. Getting stoned legally is all we need. What a great economic development platform.


Because what we are doing is working so well. How's that jail in Oklahoma County working out for ya? Instead of full legalization it could be a civil penalty and not criminal. Just think of how many salaries could be cut at OBN, sheriff offices, and prosecutors.

Rover
12-27-2017, 06:54 PM
I am pointing to reasons of why population growth is stagnant. You blame it all on a depressed O&G market. If you think putting up road blocks by the state government to alternative energy and the suppression of this industry to promote O&G as well as living in the past on social issues and education is a winning formula, then good luck to ya.

You are only pointing out reasons YOU think it’s stagnant, not the real reason for the current slowing of population growth as recognized by most economists. Do we need significant improvements in education, legal reform, etc. ... absolutely. We need it to grow long term...more for wages and quality of life than for numbers of people. People follow jobs and pay.

Jersey Boss
12-27-2017, 07:36 PM
You are only pointing out reasons YOU think it’s stagnant, not the real reason for the current slowing of population growth as recognized by most economists. Do we need significant improvements in education, legal reform, etc. ... absolutely. We need it to grow long term...more for wages and quality of life than for numbers of people. People follow jobs and pay.

I will freely admit that I pointed out the reasons of my own belief. Now tell me more about these "most economists" who feel our growth stagnation is due to the downturn in O&G and the "threat" of alternative energy taking away jobs. And apparently not replacing these lost positions with positions in the alternative energy sector. So when was the last time Oklahoma gained a seat compared to the last time we lost one?

Rover
12-27-2017, 08:55 PM
It’s not hard to find the decline in mining (O&M) employment. But you can keep arguing if you wish.

Plutonic Panda
12-27-2017, 09:07 PM
I’m sure you are right. Getting stoned legally is all we need. What a great economic development platform.
His post apparently went completely over your head. Not one person has said getting stoned will solve the states problems and you avoided his point like you do with most of your posts.

Jersey Boss
12-27-2017, 10:03 PM
It’s not hard to find the decline in mining (O&M) employment. But you can keep arguing if you wish.

Thanks for the total non responsive answers. I will let you and your straw man seek solace elsewhere.

Rover
12-27-2017, 11:27 PM
There are now multiple threads blaming busting drug users and Christianity with the failure of our state. Talk about straw man arguments.
We have lost employment in oil and gas, a primary industry. That is a fact. People quit moving here for jobs as many high paying jobs disappeared. Not because they were going to get busted for pot.

Bunty
12-27-2017, 11:41 PM
It's insane to think that OK actually borders Colorado. The two states couldn't possibly be any more different.

Yeah, for instance, the min. wage in Colorado is $9.30 an hour to go up to $12 in 2020. Conservatives oppose raising the minimum wage because it forces layoffs. But don't look to Colorado for proof of that. The unemployment rate there is 2.6%. I wonder if Oklahoma's min. wage will still be $7.25 by then? If so, low pay Oklahomans could be moving to Colorado for a pay raise. Just avoid Denver and Colorado Springs where the cost of living is pretty high.

KayneMo
12-27-2017, 11:50 PM
Employment for the mining and logging industry for the state increased by 7.2% during the period of the Census estimate (July '16 - July '17). For OKC, employment in the industry remained stagnant during the same period (though overall total non-farm employment increased by 1.8%), however, mining and logging in OKC now shows a growth of 4.6% from November '16 - November '17, per the BLS.

Bunty
12-27-2017, 11:54 PM
I’m sure you are right. Getting stoned legally is all we need. What a great economic development platform.

It would broaden the tax base, something that is much needed, if the state legislature can't pass tax hikes.

Until volunteer support arises to a sufficient level to get a legalize rec marijuana petition through, I don't expect to ever see rec marijuana legalized in the future. Even then, it wouldn't mean enough people would vote YES for it. The petition two or three years ago to legalize rec marijuana only got a tiny fraction of the support and organization the three med. marijuana petitions had. In other states, medical marijuana always first had to be legalized before rec, likely helping to explain the determination to get a med marijuana petition through in Oklahoma.

I can't imagine the state legislature allowing the people to vote on legalizing rec. marijuana, but wouldn't mind being proven wrong.

Bunty
12-28-2017, 12:33 AM
To that point, this State is horrible in job creation. The lack of manufacturing on a large scale is one aspect, dependence on O&G. OKC touts all these firsts in multiple categories BUT nowhere do we talk about JOB CREATION. Oklahoma never COMPETES for high wage jobs and saying low cost of living is a plus is overused. Low cost of living equates to low wages and incomes. The State is simply run poorly

Oklahoma needs drastic tax reform and justice reform to be more competitive with other states for more industry and more people. For justice reform, hopefully, the passage of SQ 780 will prove to be a step in the right direction. Less money needed for prisons could be redirected to education. But while the state prison head desperately wishes for new prisons to be built in Oklahoma, Texas has closed several prisons, due to its own justice reform.

As for drastic tax reform, Gov. Fallin's tax reform plan needs to be taken more seriously, like taken to a vote of the people.

I suspect Oklahoma's two biggest metros and some of its bigger small towns, such as Stillwater, would be more attractive to business and industry, once a more business friendly and better quality of life atmosphere is allowed, i.e., better support for education and elimination of state corporate income tax.

hoya
12-28-2017, 12:53 AM
There are now multiple threads blaming busting drug users and Christianity with the failure of our state. Talk about straw man arguments.
We have lost employment in oil and gas, a primary industry. That is a fact. People quit moving here for jobs as many high paying jobs disappeared. Not because they were going to get busted for pot.

The god-haters have been out in force lately.

dcsooner
12-28-2017, 06:44 AM
The god-haters have been out in force lately.

The fact that Oklahoma has a large faith community IS NOT what is impeding growth. I believe that citizens have tolerated poor STATE and City Government in Oklahoma, not demanding elected officials to work towards laws and fiscal policy that will bring the State to a place of fiscal stability. Oklahomans vote by party EVEN when the party is taking the State over a cliff. Oklahoma needs JOBS that pay living wages. Our State rarely if ever COMPETES to get large manufacturing (please don't go back 20 years). Citizens get what they demand and Oklahomans must demand accountability of elected officials. Weed sales won't fix Oklahoma, better infrastructure (roads bridges, highways), schools, and JOBS that pay well. Look at the number of elected officials recently that have been charged with or convicted of major crimes, wow, and they are running this State. Stop voting party and vote character. If the State were all BLUE would that fix things by that alone, OF COURSE NOT, but, a more mixed governing body might lead to cooperation that would move this State forward. Not having Mountains, Oceans and other natural wonders will keep some from moving to the plains but Las Vegas is not pretty, neither is Austin for that matter. Think of all the negatives you have heard about the State and City, (some of them are TRUE), most have to do with Quality of Life NOT Mountains! Hold CIty and State government accountable and vote out non performers, period. Where is the OKC Chamber of Commerce? They say OKC receives all these accolades, but, who is working to translate accolades into JOBS? Greatest city for millennials, to start at business yada, yada, what are the statistics that show a large influx of millennials and certainly when was the last announcement of MAJOR jobs in and around OKC? Yes, I am ranting but I am sick and tired of TALK and promises in OKC and Oklahoma. I can only hope that cotton mill site will not be left like an open sore on my lip like the stage center site, this City is notorious for BIG promises with small delivery or at best late of inefficient delivery see P180. When will the citizens march down to city hall and demand better? Sigh

KayneMo
12-28-2017, 09:28 AM
The fact that Oklahoma has a large faith community IS NOT what is impeding growth. I believe that citizens have tolerated poor STATE and City Government in Oklahoma, not demanding elected officials to work towards laws and fiscal policy that will bring the State to a place of fiscal stability. Oklahomans vote by party EVEN when the party is taking the State over a cliff. Oklahoma needs JOBS that pay living wages. Our State rarely if ever COMPETES to get large manufacturing (please don't go back 20 years). Citizens get what they demand and Oklahomans must demand accountability of elected officials. Weed sales won't fix Oklahoma, better infrastructure (roads bridges, highways), schools, and JOBS that pay well. Look at the number of elected officials recently that have been charged with or convicted of major crimes, wow, and they are running this State. Stop voting party and vote character. If the State were all BLUE would that fix things by that alone, OF COURSE NOT, but, a more mixed governing body might lead to cooperation that would move this State forward. Not having Mountains, Oceans and other natural wonders will keep some from moving to the plains but Las Vegas is not pretty, neither is Austin for that matter. Think of all the negatives you have heard about the State and City, (some of them are TRUE), most have to do with Quality of Life NOT Mountains! Hold CIty and State government accountable and vote out non performers, period. Where is the OKC Chamber of Commerce? They say OKC receives all these accolades, but, who is working to translate accolades into JOBS? Greatest city for millennials, to start at business yada, yada, what are the statistics that show a large influx of millennials and certainly when was the last announcement of MAJOR jobs in and around OKC? Yes, I am ranting but I am sick and tired of TALK and promises in OKC and Oklahoma. I can only hope that cotton mill site will not be left like an open sore on my lip like the stage center site, this City is notorious for BIG promises with small delivery or at best late of inefficient delivery see P180. When will the citizens march down to city hall and demand better? Sigh

Census data shows the population of 25-34 year olds in OKC grew 12% from 2010-2016, compared to OKC's overall growth of 10%.

hoya
12-28-2017, 09:38 AM
The fact that Oklahoma has a large faith community IS NOT what is impeding growth. I believe that citizens have tolerated poor STATE and City Government in Oklahoma, not demanding elected officials to work towards laws and fiscal policy that will bring the State to a place of fiscal stability. Oklahomans vote by party EVEN when the party is taking the State over a cliff. Oklahoma needs JOBS that pay living wages. Our State rarely if ever COMPETES to get large manufacturing (please don't go back 20 years). Citizens get what they demand and Oklahomans must demand accountability of elected officials. Weed sales won't fix Oklahoma, better infrastructure (roads bridges, highways), schools, and JOBS that pay well. Look at the number of elected officials recently that have been charged with or convicted of major crimes, wow, and they are running this State. Stop voting party and vote character. If the State were all BLUE would that fix things by that alone, OF COURSE NOT, but, a more mixed governing body might lead to cooperation that would move this State forward. Not having Mountains, Oceans and other natural wonders will keep some from moving to the plains but Las Vegas is not pretty, neither is Austin for that matter. Think of all the negatives you have heard about the State and City, (some of them are TRUE), most have to do with Quality of Life NOT Mountains! Hold CIty and State government accountable and vote out non performers, period. Where is the OKC Chamber of Commerce? They say OKC receives all these accolades, but, who is working to translate accolades into JOBS? Greatest city for millennials, to start at business yada, yada, what are the statistics that show a large influx of millennials and certainly when was the last announcement of MAJOR jobs in and around OKC? Yes, I am ranting but I am sick and tired of TALK and promises in OKC and Oklahoma. I can only hope that cotton mill site will not be left like an open sore on my lip like the stage center site, this City is notorious for BIG promises with small delivery or at best late of inefficient delivery see P180. When will the citizens march down to city hall and demand better? Sigh

Actually I agree with everything you said here.

One of the biggest problems we have is that the state Democratic party appears to be run by Ralph Wiggum. You can't complain about the voters when many of the crappier Republican incumbents never even face a challenger. From what I understand, talking to people who would know, some of our state legislators actually have an unofficial contest to see who can propose the craziest legislation. They think its funny. This means we need a more effective opposition party. If stupid Ralph Shortey hadn't got caught buying an underage male prostitute, he'd still be there. Michael Brooks (who has the seat now) ran against him last time, but he had next to no support from the Democratic party.

We need a better quality of legislator.

dcsooner
12-28-2017, 09:43 AM
Census data shows the population of 25-34 year olds in OKC grew 12% from 2010-2016, compared to OKC's overall growth of 10%.

That is very good news. More young adults with fresh ideas and enthusiasm is what is needed. Hopefully that statistic reflects a good number of persons with higher educational achievement. People my age (retired) have screwed up things too much already. Let's hope the city can create sufficient JOBS to allow those young people to stay and contribute to the city's transformation from my generation and that of my parents.

KayneMo
12-28-2017, 10:05 AM
That is very good news. More young adults with fresh ideas and enthusiasm is what is needed. Hopefully that statistic reflects a good number of persons with higher educational achievement. People my age (retired) have screwed up things too much already. Let's hope the city can create sufficient JOBS to allow those young people to stay and contribute to the city's transformation from my generation and that of my parents.

Here's an interesting statistic from the Census: 25-34 year olds in OKC with a Bachelor's degree or higher grew by 36% from 2010-2016.

jonny d
12-28-2017, 10:30 AM
Actually I agree with everything you said here.

One of the biggest problems we have is that the state Democratic party appears to be run by Ralph Wiggum. You can't complain about the voters when many of the crappier Republican incumbents never even face a challenger. From what I understand, talking to people who would know, some of our state legislators actually have an unofficial contest to see who can propose the craziest legislation. They think its funny. This means we need a more effective opposition party. If stupid Ralph Shortey hadn't got caught buying an underage male prostitute, he'd still be there. Michael Brooks (who has the seat now) ran against him last time, but he had next to no support from the Democratic party.

We need a better quality of legislator.

Agree whole-heartedly! I know many people who have wanted change in our congressmen, but would not dignify the polls with their presence. It is sad, and it should almost prohibit you from pissing and moaning about the state of politics in OK. Go vote, people! Be the change that could help OK turn around.

bchris02
12-28-2017, 10:43 AM
The fact that Oklahoma has a large faith community IS NOT what is impeding growth. I believe that citizens have tolerated poor STATE and City Government in Oklahoma, not demanding elected officials to work towards laws and fiscal policy that will bring the State to a place of fiscal stability.

I agree. The fact OKC is a very religious state in and of itself isn't the problem. The reason religion gets brought into this discussion is that Oklahoma is one of the most socially conservative states and a big reason why the statehouse is in the shape it's in is because people vote anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ above all else. The "God, guns, and gays" message is what sells in Oklahoma. Of course, people are voting their conscience and everyone should vote their conscience, but I wish people would see that they are being played. Tax policies favoring oil & gas at the expense of all other industries, cutting education to promote homeschooling and "school choice", combined with a focus on socially regressive politics such as chipping away at abortion rights, LGBT rights, and going all in on the War on Drugs at a time when much of the country is going the opposite direction is not a recipe for a thriving state.

Does Oklahoma want to be a Georgia, Tennessee, or North Carolina or does the state want to go the way of Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama?

Jersey Boss
12-28-2017, 12:04 PM
Employment for the mining and logging industry for the state increased by 7.2% during the period of the Census estimate (July '16 - July '17). For OKC, employment in the industry remained stagnant during the same period (though overall total non-farm employment increased by 1.8%), however, mining and logging in OKC now shows a growth of 4.6% from November '16 - November '17, per the BLS.
But, but, but, "most economists say...."

Jersey Boss
12-28-2017, 12:05 PM
I agree. The fact OKC is a very religious state in and of itself isn't the problem. The reason religion gets brought into this discussion is that Oklahoma is one of the most socially conservative states and a big reason why the statehouse is in the shape it's in is because people vote anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ above all else. The "God, guns, and gays" message is what sells in Oklahoma. Of course, people are voting their conscience and everyone should vote their conscience, but I wish people would see that they are being played. Tax policies favoring oil & gas at the expense of all other industries, cutting education to promote homeschooling and "school choice", combined with a focus on socially regressive politics such as chipping away at abortion rights, LGBT rights, and going all in on the War on Drugs at a time when much of the country is going the opposite direction is not a recipe for a thriving state.

Does Oklahoma want to be a Georgia, Tennessee, or North Carolina or does the state want to go the way of Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama?
Agreed.

Bellaboo
12-28-2017, 02:28 PM
From a few folks that I know that understand what's going on at 23rd street (if anybody does), they have made the comment that a lack of leadership came along with term limits a few years back. No one knows how to compromise on either side of the aisle.

Just what I heard, FWIW.

Rover
12-28-2017, 02:32 PM
But, but, but, "most economists say...."


Natural resources & mining declined 5.3 percent in 2016 and subtracted from GDP growth in 169 metropolitan areas including three of the four MSAs in Oklahoma, (Enid MSA being the exception), where this industry shaved 2.24 from statewide metropolitan area GDP growth.

14332

I believe you can find the complete analysis here: https://www.ok.gov/oesc_web/documents/lmiEconIndPub.pdf

This report won't include any snappy comebacks and personal attacks, but will reveal actual data and information.

ChrisHayes
12-28-2017, 06:48 PM
FWIW, the state unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, and the OKC Metro unemployment rate was 3.6%. Both of those are with record high numbers of people in the labor forces, so that shows a very healthy employment situation. The highest the metro unemployment rate got during the oil crunch was 4.3% and for the state it was 5%. Both of those are still very good numbers.

gopokes88
12-28-2017, 08:17 PM
FWIW, the state unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, and the OKC Metro unemployment rate was 3.6%. Both of those are with record high numbers of people in the labor forces, so that shows a very healthy employment situation. The highest the metro unemployment rate got during the oil crunch was 4.3% and for the state it was 5%. Both of those are still very good numbers.
Sooooooooooo

You’re saying it’s not all doom and gloom like this thread says it is?

OKCRT
12-28-2017, 08:45 PM
Lock em up and throw away the key. That's one way to keep them from leaving the state.

Or lets have the cops/highway patrol stop cars randomly on our state highways and and confiscate folks money and make them prove it's legal. Now that a sure fire way to keep people away.

Just a couple of things this state does to make people feel welcome. All in the name of God I suppose.

But not to worry. Oil and Gas will rebound and people will filter in to replace the ones we lose.

LocoAko
12-28-2017, 09:02 PM
From Shane Hampton (https://twitter.com/shanehamp/status/946478747162742786, https://twitter.com/shanehamp/status/946478749083668481, and https://twitter.com/shanehamp/status/946478751482896386):


Looking at new Census estimates for Oklahoma, and it's not looking good. The state was growing about 30,000 per year for first half of decade, but only gained 9,000 last year. And it's trending worse.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSKIZZCVQAANOID.jpg

Looking at "Natural Increase" (Births minus Deaths) shows that the number of deaths is increasing while births are stagnant. Probably reflecting our aging (and as we also know, unhealthy) population.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSKMjMQUQAAcZC7.jpg

Looking at Net Migration, international migration into Oklahoma actually increased. But on the domestic side- moves to and from other states- 10,500 more people moved out than in last year. Probably reflecting our rough economy (and as we also know, struggling quality of life).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSKNAggV4AArVSY.jpg

Bunty
12-28-2017, 11:16 PM
Career Tech is a highly valuable part of education in Oklahoma legislators should never cut. The Career Tech in Stillwater has helped Asco Aerospace get started by training workers. One of the most valuable economic resources an Oklahoma town can have is a Career Tech.

CAREERTECH: A key player in Oklahoma’s economic development, growth http://www.stwnewspress.com/news/local_columnists/careertech-a-key-player-in-oklahoma-s-economic-development-growth/article_5805135a-400 a-521c-8bcf-e37eb3647cf0.html (http://www.stwnewspress.com/news/local_columnists/careertech-a-key-player-in-oklahoma-s-economic-development-growth/article_5805135a-400a-521c-8bcf-e37eb3647cf0.html)

KayneMo
01-07-2018, 01:18 PM
Population diagram I made for the state using 2016 estimates:
There are 19 metropolitan counties, 17 micropolitan counties, and 41 rural counties.
https://image.ibb.co/cDOMWb/oklahoma_population_diagram.png

Urbanized
01-07-2018, 02:38 PM
That’s so cool!

Jake
01-07-2018, 03:02 PM
You should post that on r/DataIsBeautiful on reddit!

Bunty
01-07-2018, 03:51 PM
If all goes well, Oklahoma will gain at least one metro in 2020 with that being Stillwater.

KayneMo
01-07-2018, 05:01 PM
That’s so cool!

Thanks!


You should post that on r/DataIsBeautiful on reddit!

Thanks for the suggestion, just did!

OkiePoke
01-08-2018, 09:13 AM
Thanks!



Thanks for the suggestion, just did!

Now I know your username!

KayneMo
03-22-2018, 01:24 AM
Census estimates for July 2017 are out for counties and, therefore, metropolitan areas!

OKC at 1,384,485 - an increase of 11,274 from July 2016.
Tulsa at 990,442 - an increase of 3,241 from July 2016.

Oklahoma County itself added more (+3,750) than the Tulsa metro did overall.

27 of the state's 77 counties posted growth. All of metro OKC's 7 counties posted growth, while 4 of metro Tulsa's 7 counties posted growth.

Dallas-Fort Worth continues to lead in numerical growth with an increase of 146,238 from July 2016.

cinnamonjock
03-22-2018, 08:09 AM
Is 27 out of 77 normal? Because that seems low to me

catch22
03-22-2018, 08:40 AM
Very good numbers. Is that MSA or CSA?

Urbanized
03-22-2018, 08:43 AM
Tulsa metro tipping very close to a million now. That’s good news for them - and by extension the rest of the state - when they get there.

catch22
03-22-2018, 08:43 AM
Is 27 out of 77 normal? Because that seems low to me

Rural is decreasing, an ongoing trend across the country. Technology improvements drive a need for fewer farm workers.

Urbanized
03-22-2018, 08:45 AM
Is 27 out of 77 normal? Because that seems low to me

It’s the new normal that has established itself over the past couple of decades. Rural - truly rural, not suburban - populations are shrinking all over the U.S.

Pete
03-22-2018, 09:02 AM
Looks like a little less than 1% in the last year or about 8% when you extrapolate for a decade. That's not so hot.

Only about 3% for Tulsa if you project for 10 years.

GaryOKC6
03-22-2018, 09:14 AM
We are showing 1.4% www.greateroklahomacity.com/forecast . The long term outlook is that the metro will add 600,000 new residents over the next 22 years.

Pete
03-22-2018, 09:22 AM
^

Here is that population projection from the Chamber:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/chamberpopulation032218.jpg

dcsooner
03-22-2018, 09:24 AM
We are showing 1.4% www.greateroklahomacity.com/forecast . The long term outlook is that the metro will add 600,000 new residents over the next 22 years.

This is a very optimistic projection not supported by historical evidence of sustained growth.

KayneMo
03-22-2018, 09:40 AM
Very good numbers. Is that MSA or CSA?

MSA.

OKC CSA at 1,455,963.
Tulsa CSA at 1,160,348.

Just realized I forgot to take into account the estimate changes to the 2016 numbers, so the corrected estimate for OKC MSA is 1,383,737 (increase is still 11,274), and Tulsa MSA is 987,465 (increase is still 3,241).

BG918
03-22-2018, 10:11 AM
MSA.

OKC CSA at 1,455,963.
Tulsa CSA at 1,160,348.

Just realized I forgot to take into account the estimate changes to the 2016 numbers, so the corrected estimate for OKC MSA is 1,383,737 (increase is still 11,274), and Tulsa MSA is 987,465 (increase is still 3,241).

The combined population of the CSA's for OKC and Tulsa is 2,616,311 which is .67 or 2/3 of the state's total population (3,921,000 in 2016). When do you anticipate that number being 3/4 of the state population, maybe 2030??

PhiAlpha
03-22-2018, 11:45 AM
Nm

PhiAlpha
03-22-2018, 11:49 AM
This is a very optimistic projection not supported by historical evidence of sustained growth.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/villainstournament/images/2/27/Eeyore.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20150524022548

bchris02
03-22-2018, 11:55 AM
I've never liked the "CSA" metric for comparing metro areas. There are actually only a few metro areas in the country where using the CSA makes sense eg. Raleigh-Durham. It doesn't for OKC or Tulsa in my opinion and is simply just a way to inflate the numbers.

It is surprising that Tulsa continues to under-perform. Given the oil downturn and the improvement in the national economy, these numbers for OKC are about what should be expected.

BG918
03-22-2018, 12:08 PM
I've never liked the "CSA" metric for comparing metro areas. There are actually only a few metro areas in the country where using the CSA makes sense eg. Raleigh-Durham. It doesn't for OKC or Tulsa in my opinion and is simply just a way to inflate the numbers.

It is surprising that Tulsa continues to under-perform. Given the oil downturn and the improvement in the national economy, these numbers for OKC are about what should be expected.

CSA's tie together the larger MSA to adjacent micropolitan areas that have an employment interchange of at least 15%. They also represent a region that shares the same labor and media market.

The only reasons I can think of for Tulsa's tepid growth is a lack of dynamic industries creating lots of jobs and the continued oil downturn which affects Tulsa as much as OKC. Lack of a large state university in the metro is likely another factor. There is a lot of positive momentum currently in Tulsa but it hasn't yet translated into higher growth, hopefully next year's numbers show a better return especially with O&G activity picking back up. The city itself has been growing and is now over 400,000 for the first time ever and the MSA has been so close to 1 million for the past several years but just hasn't been able to get over that hump.

Pete
03-22-2018, 12:50 PM
Really, the only difference between OKC's MSA and CSA is Pot County, which is mainly Shawnee.

I actually know a bunch of people who live in that area and work in OKC, so IMO it makes a lot of sense to include that county in our numbers.

GaryOKC6
03-22-2018, 02:48 PM
This is a very optimistic projection not supported by historical evidence of sustained growth.

What do you mean? There was a tremendous amount of data and research that went in to this. This was not something that was cobbled together. The data includes interviews with okc's major industries to get their growth plans as well. With the changing landscape of our employment base is historical evidence even possible?

dcsooner
03-22-2018, 02:56 PM
What do you mean? There was a tremendous amount of data and research that went in to this. This was not something that was cobbled together. The data includes interviews with okc's major industries to get their growth plans as well. With the changing landscape of our employment base is historical evidence even possible?

What I mean is that OKC due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, has never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years. And if the State continues down the road of mediocrity never will. Low salaries, poor health care, poor schools, lack of diversity in the job market, incarceration is an industry, sentencing laws (I could go on).
Just visited my home town Lawton, place is worse than 40 years ago. Really sad to see. Crumbling infrastructure, no job opportunities.

GaryOKC6
03-22-2018, 03:08 PM
I what I mean is that OKC has due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, Oklahoma and OKC have never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years 20q9

Got it. Other industries are overtaking oil and gas. Currently oil and gas are less than 3% of our jobs. Aviation, Bio, Technology are the fastest growing. Manufacturing is also showing strong growth. Aviation has become the largest economic factor for okc.