Between 2010 and 2013 the metropolitan area grew by 2.6%

If the metro area grows at the same rate through the entire decade, that would put the CSA at 1,436,030 in 2020. To get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.8 million by 2020 would require Austin-level growth or even greater which isn't going to happen in the face of low oil prices (not considering other factors holding growth here back). If the metro grows as fast as it did from 2000-10, which actually saw better growth numbers than what the metro is currently seeing, that would still only put the CSA population at 1,512,858 in 2020.

See laramie's post above. At 50k per year OKC Metro would be around 1.7-1.8 by 2020. Maybe higher.

Between 2010 and 2013 the metropolitan area grew by 2.6%

If the metro area grows at the same rate through the entire decade, that would put the CSA at 1,436,030 in 2020. To get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.8 million by 2020 would require Austin-level growth or even greater which isn't going to happen in the face of low oil prices (not considering other factors holding growth here back). If the metro grows as fast as it did from 2000-10, which actually saw better growth numbers than what the metro is currently seeing, that would still only put the CSA population at 1,512,858 in 2020.

Interesting! Where did you get the 2.6 % figure?

Look at growth from 2010-2015. If we have the same rate of growth we should be there. I am talking CSA

Is Shawnee growing that fast?

The numbers I figured should put OKC at somewhere between 1.46 and 1.53 by 2020 and that is including Pottawatomie County.

Interesting! Where did you get the 2.6 % figure.

Oklahoma City ranked 7th-fastest-growing metro area in country | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/news/oklahoma-city-ranked-7thfastestgrowing-metro-area-in-country/25400744)

It's not just Shawnee. When we add Tulsa:) Seriously though if OKC metro grows by 50k a year we will be at those numbers.

It's not just Shawnee. When we add Tulsa:) Seriously though if OKC metro grows by 50k a year we will be at those numbers.

True, at 50k per year. So far between 2010 and 2014, OKC has grown by about 20k per year. The city would have to double its current growth rate and then some to reach that. To do so, I think the city would need a combination of oil back in the $100-$120 range as well as a couple of major corporate relocations and a few quiet tornado seasons consecutively to top it off.

Look at growth from 2010-2015. If we have the same rate of growth we should be there. I am talking CSA

Even with Pottawatomie County and the growth from 2010-2014 (+86,149), the CSA would only be just above 1.53 million.

CSA population in 2010: 1,322,429
CSA population estimate in 2014: 1,408,578
Difference is 86,149. Divided by 4 is 21,537, then multiply by 10 is 215,373. Add that to the 2010 number and you get 1,537,802 (assuming current growth is unchanged).

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

They aren't. It's a mess down there with horrible traffic and skyrocketing housing prices. You really don't want that type of growth especially in Oklahoma where you know the state won't keep up with the infrastructure needed for it (we barely maintain what we already have..)

Even with Pottawatomie County and the growth from 2010-2014 (+86,149), the CSA would only be just above 1.53 million.

CSA population in 2010: 1,322,429
CSA population estimate in 2014: 1,408,578
Difference is 86,149. Divided by 4 is 21,537, then multiply by 10 is 215,373. Add that to the 2010 number and you get 1,537,802 (assuming current growth is unchanged).

You're projecting linear growth, not geometric growth.

.03% growth rate will get us to 1.7+ mil. CSA pop. by 2020

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

Oklahoma City isn't ready for any population boom unless there are quality jobs to feed that growth. We've reach that point where there are 600,000 in the city & 1.3 million in the metro area; who knows what could feed or cause that growth to become stagnant.

OKC's annual population estimated gains are relatively moderate which means that we should be able to manage our current rate of growth as we approach 2020.

Boeing jobs that will supply TAFB site and the GE Global Research Center are among the big fish we have landed that will bring additional satellite jobs to the area.

What's happening to the Energy sector at this time will have an affect on OKC; it probably won't be as damaging to our local economy as the oil bust of the 80s.

It looks like the price of oil is stabilizing.

I agree with this.

I wish the legislature would quit with the anti-gay obsession. It may help them shore up a few votes but it re-enforces a perception issue that hurts Oklahoma economically at all levels. Unfortunately, you can't reason with people who think they are doing the work of God. I think when discussing Oklahoma City's growth prospects, its essential to discuss politics because the social conservatism does have an impact on people moving here, people staying here, and businesses willing to locate here. Other than tornadoes, its the number one thing people in other states cringe at when you mention Oklahoma.


At least one or two legislators are not like what you say. An example is Rep. Cory Williams. Earlier this year, he said Oklahoma’s politics were starting to affect economic development and that the legislature is not a great PR machine. How Oklahoma can find more legislators like Williams, whether Democrat or Republican, I don't know. Hopefully, there are more than just a few in the Oklahoma Legislature already there and trying their best while creating no nonsense of their own.

City population estimates for 2014 are out from the Census.

Oklahoma City - 620,602 (+40,594 since 2010)
Norman - 118,040 (+7,115)
Edmond - 88,605 (+7,206)
Moore - 59,196 (+4,115)
Midwest City - 57,039 (+2,668)
2014 population estimates for all Oklahoma cities are here: https://www.census.gov/popest/data/cities/totals/2014/SUB-EST2014-3.html

Stillwater added on more people than most cities did from 2013 to 2014 with 1,056 for a total of 48,406. Probably more OSU students, start up at ASCO Aerospace and energy largely accounted for it. If jobs were lost in the energy field, they can be made up from at least several hundred new jobs from Academy Sports and a couple of new hotels all soon to open.

You're projecting linear growth, not geometric growth.

True, but basing the metro's growth off of the past several years, it is much more linear rather than geometric.

I think OKC is growing at a really nice clip right now. Looking at rankings provided online by the Census Bureau, OKC's CITY growth, from 2010 - 2014 shows exactly at 7.00%. Within the decade, we will pass Baltimore, Detroit, and maybe even Memphis.

Austin's growth is crazy, 790,000 - 912,000 in 4 years... HOW is that city even keeping up with that sort of growth? Eeek.

It isn't. It's becoming ridiculously unaffordable with the worst traffic in Tejas.

It isn't. It's becoming ridiculously unaffordable with the worst traffic in Tejas.

A city served by only a single Interstate was never meant to be as large as its become.

A city served by only a single Interstate was never meant to be as large as its become.

It may only have one designated interstate but there are a few state roads built to interstate standards, one that is almost interstate standard that probably will be entirely in the not too distant future and a few classic highways.

It may only have one designated interstate but there are a few state roads built to interstate standards, one that is almost interstate standard that probably will be entirely in the not too distant future and a few classic highways.

I'm from Austin and I'll tell you that the city was definitely built around I35. There may be several state highways built to interstate standards today but the TX DOT and the city waited too long to do it. You have to go out of your way to drive on any of them so everyone still takes 35.

I'm not sure if this calls for its own thread, but I want to post some population numbers of some of OKC's districts using Drawing - WSJ Census Map Maker (http://censusmapmaker.com/draw/) which uses the 2010 Census.

Deep Deuce - 434 (pop density - 5,425/sq mi)
Midtown - 1,205 (2,410/sq mi)
Park Plaza - 364 (3,640/sq mi)
Heritage Hills - 1,034 (4,136/sq mi)
Mesta Park - 1,581 ( 5,856/sq mi)
Jefferson Park - 1,196 (6,644/sq mi)
Paseo - 838 (5,587/sq mi)
Central Park - 1,429 (5,954/sq mi)
Edgemere Park - 727 (4,276/sq mi)
Gatewood - 2,700 (6,000/sq mi)
Classen Ten Penn - 3,389 (7,531/sq mi)
Youngs-Englewood - 1,886 (7,544/sq mi)

I also found that the western half of Classen Ten Penn is among the densest areas of OKC at 8,850/sq mi.

I wonder how much these numbers have changed in the past 5 years and am anxious to see the difference in 5 years for the 2020 Census, especially for Deep Deuce and Midtown. Any guestimates for current numbers for DD and Midtown?

By 2020, I believe Deep Deuce is going to have 1000 *units*, which will probably mean at least 1500 people. 1500 would put Deep Deuce at a density of 18,752 residents/square mile.

I don't imagine the Inner-Northwest neighborhoods are going to be that different. Maybe a slight uptick, but major density increases are not happening in that area. Midtown will likely see the largest percentage increase.

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

It probably is at least close to it now; given that Level, Mosaic, the Maywood Appartments and at least half the houses were built after those 2010 census numbers came out.

surprised at the low numbers for Deep Deuce. I thought it was easily the most densely populated area of the entire state.

Those are 2010 numbers. Pre-Level, aLoft, Mosaic, some Hill homes, some Brownstone sales, Maywood. Units have more than doubled in the last 5 years, and I would bet Occupancy rates are up given the absolute inundation with new/better things to do downtown.

Downtown has some a long, long way since 2010 and will see even more growth before 2020. I think at this point, the 2010 census numbers aren't a very good representation of how many people are actually living downtown.

Once the 2020 census comes out it should be boon for development downtown.

Which will include the Metropolitan and Maywood Apartments II.

Then in 2020 we will be saying how the census is outdated because it doesn't include the then-under-construction residential tower. :Smiley199

That is 434 residents in a Deep Deuce that was still left underdeveloped by Somerset and OCURA. Today's Deep Duece might have 300 residents in one development.

As for 2020, Deep Deuce may be finished sooner, but it always takes a few years for a development to go from concept to full occupancy.

I just hope we're out of land in the next two years. If not something will be stunting growth...

Does anyone know the month that last year's population estimates will be released? Something tells me soon or by early Summer is the usual window population figures are released, but I could be completely wrong.

I'm super curious to see Tulsa, OKC, and OK's population estimates. I think they may be coming in higher than anticipated, even with the downturn in the latter half of 2015.

Tulsa should finally break 400,000, it's metro should be nearing 975,000 ~
OKC should most likely be between 630,000-640,000 (too high?), with an official metro of well past 1.3 million (not the Shawnee combined figures).
And I think Oklahoma should be within about 45,000 of 4 million.

Just guesses off the top of my head, anyone else?

It's usually in June.

I don't know but some guy on the TulsaNow forum was talking about how Tulsa is and has been supposedly losing population for the past year or two, which I'm not entirely sure is true.

For what its worth, Oklahoma as a state still recorded healthy population growth this year, with a decent amount of domestic migration.

With that in mind, I am sure the state is currently seeing a slowdown, but population figures are something of a delayed reaction. It may not be apparent until estimates come out in 2017 or even 2018.

I don't know but some guy on the TulsaNow forum was talking about how Tulsa is and has been supposedly losing population for the past year or two, which I'm not entirely sure is true.

Perhaps within city limits but certainly not in the MSA.

Here's the schedule of new estimates.
Population Estimates: Schedule of New Estimates - U.S Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/popest/schedule.html)

City and town population release is May 2016 for July 2015 data.

My guess for OKC is just above 630,000 and for the metro around 1,360,000.

Here's the schedule of new estimates.
Population Estimates: Schedule of New Estimates - U.S Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/popest/schedule.html)

City and town population release is May 2016 for July 2015 data.

My guess for OKC is just above 630,000 and for the metro around 1,360,000.

Sounds like very safe and conservative estimates. Take in mind that these are only estimates derived from a number of factors like new utility hook ups, home sales and home vacancies--to name a few.

yes, I too hope there is continued growth for Oklahoma, the city, and Tulsa.

I'm hoping Tulsa does indeed meet the 400K mark and 970K metro. It would be nice to see a movement within their metro towards Tulsa - here's crossing fingers. ...

I'm quite sure OKC will be well above 630K and 1.36M based on the 2014 estimates. I'm hopeful for Oklahoma City to be at 644K for 2015 and 1.38-1.4M metro (MSA). It would be great if CSA brings OKC to 1.5M and Tulsa to 1.1M and I'm also hopeful the state will finally break 4M and get that Congressional representative back (with hopefully a new district for the urban area of Oklahoma City - perhaps a Dem or Indy to counter the Republican stigma to boot).

It would be great if CSA brings OKC to 1.5M and Tulsa to 1.1M and I'm also hopeful the state will finally break 4M and get that Congressional representative back (with hopefully a new district for the urban area of Oklahoma City - perhaps a Dem or Indy to counter the Republican stigma to boot).

That is very unlikely, even with a nice gain. We are still in competition with other states when it comes to gaining or losing congressmen and we won't be growing fast enough for that to happen.

To continue a tad off topic, this is one of the many reforms needed. 435 reps accurately represent 320 million people? Yea... NO. Heck, even adding 50 and defaulting to giving each state 1 additional rep would be more satisfactory.
But I understand there's a lot of argument that can go either way into that, and one thing that comes to my mind is that we'd only be putting more leeches on the payrolls.

But anyway, thanks for the answers all.
It would be nice to see OK get closer to that 4 mil mark, or even Tulsa finally break 400k.

July 2015 population estimate for the state is 3,911,338 (up 160,000 since 2010).

July 2015 population estimate for the state is 3,911,338 (up 160,000 since 2010).

Interesting to note that Oregon and Oklahoma essentially have the same population. I think Oregon just hit 4 million this year.

Interesting to note that Oregon and Oklahoma essentially have the same population. I think Oregon just hit 4 million this year.

Indeed, Oregon's 2015 estimate was 4,029,000. Also interesting to note that Portland and OKC also essentially have the same population at around 620,000 in 2014.

Oregon used to be smaller than Oklahoma and vice versa OKC used to be smaller than Portland. Interestingly now, they're essentially equal. :)

Rank
City
2014 est
2010 est
%Change



27
Oklahoma City, OK
620,602
579,999
+7.00%



28
Portland, OR
619,360
583,776
+6.10%



24
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA
2,348,247

Portland's urban population density: 4,375 per sq mi
2,226,009
+5.49%



42
Oklahoma City, OK Metropolitan Statistical Area
1,336,767
1,252,987
+6.69%




Portland has impressive numbers. Oklahoma City continues to exhibit healthy moderate growth.

Urban population density:
Portland 4,375 per sq mi
Oklahoma City 956 per sq mi

OKC's official population density number is such an inaccurate representation, I hate it lol. The density within the central loop is about 3,800/sq mi, the density within the south loop (Oklahoma River as northern border) is 4,500/sq mi, and the density within the north loop is 3,100/sq mi. The three loops combined is about 213,000 people in about 58 sq mi at ~3,700/sq mi, and that's including many open areas which skew the number down.

I don't know why, but this was a really exciting article to read! I love seeing these things about OKC.

Oklahoma City sees strong growth of foreign-born residents | News OK (http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-sees-strong-growth-of-foreign-born-residents/article/5486259)

I loved that article too and was going to post it.

However, there is one thing from the article I didn't like and that is I felt the author constantly tried to make OKC look small. He kept saying that OKC's % would be higher due to it being smaller. Well duh. But why did he have to keep emphasizing it? OKC had 25% growth in foreign born citizens; that should have been the story and not that Dallas/Houston are still gateways (when actually they are NOT because LA, Chicago, SF, and NY and even SEA and DC are the immigrant gateways, people fan out from there). Almost seems like a story written by the Dallas Morning News or Houston Chronicle, not the Oklahoma City Daily Oklahoman. ...

Nevertheless, I believe the overall point of the story is two fold; one that OKC is a desirable place as seen by the influx of foreign born citizens and two that OKC is much more diverse than many cities and definitely moreso than most people give it credit for. .... THAT should have been the focus of the article since that is the true story.

That is true!

Here's your answer Hot Rod:


Ben Felder is an investigative reporter for The Oklahoman.

A native of Kansas City, Ben has lived in Oklahoma City since 2010

He was at the Gazette and recently went to the Oklahoman. Looks like he may be not far removed from college and is using stepping stones to try to get back home to a job at the KC Star.

Ben is the best in OKC, imo. I'm not so sure this is a stepping stone job for him as he work at the Foundation for Oklahoma City Public Schools in between reporter jobs.

Ben is the best in OKC, imo. I'm not so sure this is a stepping stone job for him as he work at the Foundation for Oklahoma City Public Schools in between reporter jobs.

His time with the OKCFPS was pretty short and he seems to bounce around a little bit.

^
LOL. Welcome to the world of millennials.


Ben is the best in OKC, imo. I'm not so sure this is a stepping stone job for him as he work at the Foundation for Oklahoma City Public Schools in between reporter jobs.

Met him right before I moved and can confirm. He is very invested in the community here, especially education, and owns a home in the Paseo area. I just hope he is not run off working for the Oklahoman.

Ben is one of the most thoughtful and thorough reporters in the state. And why would someone even criticism him if he did take a job from a larger paper from a bigger market (where he's from) if he was offered? Pretty lame and speculative criticism.

He also hosts an OKC podcast with Allison Bailey, which is not connected to any employer. I just don't see him doing that if he wasn't invested in the community.

Metropolitan population rankings for the United States - Buffalo - Buffalo Business First (http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2016/03/24/buffalo-slips-to-50th-in-official-population.html)

OKC Metro 2015 estimate - 1,358,452

The OKC metro area surpasses the Memphis metro to number 41, gaining 21,685 residents from 2014-2015 and gaining 105,465 from 2010-2015.

And here's Tulsa:

Metro area population grows by 11,000 in past year - Tulsa World: Local (http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/metro-area-population-grows-by-in-past-year/article_02ef29cc-46e6-5084-8192-5e8929649053.html)

Of particular note:



It was the largest one-year increase in population this decade in the Tulsa metro area.
Prior annual metro area population increases have averaged 7,532 this decade.


Grew by 11,000 to 981,005. At this current rate Tulsa metro will hit 1 million in approximately two years. However, we'll see if this energy downturn will negatively impact that.

Something interesting I noticed for OKC is that it may have found a new permanent placing in metro rankings for years to come, unless it's overtaken by Raleigh or Louisville in time:


• 38. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: 1,613,070 residents (rank in 2010: 38)

• 39. Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI: 1,575,747 residents (rank in 2010: 39)

• 40. Jacksonville, FL: 1,449,481 residents (rank in 2010: 40)

• 41. Oklahoma City, OK: 1,358,452 residents (rank in 2010: 42)

• 42. Memphis, TN-MS-AR: 1,344,127 residents (rank in 2010: 41)

• 43. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: 1,278,413 residents (rank in 2010: 43)

• 44. Raleigh, NC: 1,273,568 residents (rank in 2010: 48)

• 45. Richmond, VA: 1,271,334 residents (rank in 2010: 45)

More data for those who are interested:

Net Migration OKC 2014-15: +12,354 (+3,472 International, +8,882 Domestic)

Net Migration OKC 2010-15: +62,378 (+15,718 International, +46,660 Domestic)

Net Migration Tulsa 2014-15: +6,396 (+1,589 International, +4,807 Domestic)

Net Migration Tulsa 2010-15: +20,540 (+7,175 International, +13,365 Domestic)

Source: Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Totals: Vintage 2015 - U.S Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2015/index.html)

adding over 100,000 in just 5 years is a pretty good clip...

Also, out of metro areas with over 1 million persons, OKC ranked 12th in population growth from 2010-15.