View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - July & August 2011
venture 07-17-2011, 04:44 PM I have been enjoying this thread the last couple weeks. If anyone else likes weather you should check this OKC Weather blog out. It has a lot of good info http://www.OklahomaWeatherTracker.com
Not sure what it provides. I see a lot of regurgitated info being shouted out in ALL CAPS to make it represent how NWS products are delivered. I've looked at it a couple times and never really found much value. "OKC's #1 Online Weather Source!" -- according to? LOL
Pardon me if I appear a little...umm...rude. But I've always been suspicious of people that join a forum and their very first post is a linked advertisement to another site. The comment really looks like the spam I delete daily from my blog. A classic "Omg great site? Glad I found this. Hey check out this page as well it is really awesome uber great also! --insertrandomlinkhere--" message.
If that isn't your intent, I apologize and welcome to OKCTalk. Perhaps, when joining a forum in the future, contribute to discussion instead of immediately linking sites to take people away.
kevinpate 07-17-2011, 05:28 PM I hope next time I ever gritch that it is cold, thunder booms in a clear sky and the clouds shift to spell out 07172011 just to remind me to shut the freak up right then and there.
venture 07-17-2011, 06:48 PM I hope next time I ever gritch that it is cold, thunder booms in a clear sky and the clouds shift to spell out 07172011 just to remind me to shut the freak up right then and there.
I'll save this quote for when we start the Winter Discussion threads in December. LOL
OKCMallen 07-18-2011, 05:41 PM i have been enjoying this thread the last couple weeks. If anyone else likes weather you should check this okc weather blog out. It has a lot of good info http://www.oklahomaweathertracker.com
trooooolll!!!!!!!!!!
BG918 07-18-2011, 10:44 PM Any chance as the high pressure moves east that the jetstream could finally move south bringing us some relief? I feel sorry for those on the East Coast who are about to experience extremely hot temps and are not used to it like we are. The high moving east definitely is more favorable for bringing tropical systems up here...if there was any activity in the Gulf...
venture 07-18-2011, 11:41 PM Could increase moisture as we get a flow off the gulf...which might help start more afternoon storms. I wouldn't expect much, but who knows. Still some hope next week of the ridge building west and us going into a northwest flow pattern for a bit.
bandnerd 07-19-2011, 08:01 AM Any chance as the high pressure moves east that the jetstream could finally move south bringing us some relief? I feel sorry for those on the East Coast who are about to experience extremely hot temps and are not used to it like we are. The high moving east definitely is more favorable for bringing tropical systems up here...if there was any activity in the Gulf...
Wait, we're used to this?
BG918 07-19-2011, 08:41 AM Wait, we're used to this?
Not multiple weeks like this summer, but yes we are not strangers to extremely hot weather in Oklahoma.
Roadhawg 07-19-2011, 09:40 AM I'm thinking they can just replay the TV weather until things change
venture 07-19-2011, 10:36 AM So some hope...about 1% of hope in the forecast. LOL
Models continue to go with a NW flow starting later next week. GFS is also developing a tropical low in the gulf moving into TX and up into Central OK middle of next week. We'll see if this actually even happens. The models love to develop tropical systems and then nothing happens.
Thunder 07-19-2011, 11:48 AM I was thinking that it was starting early for us. August will probably be a rainy month.
Btw, there has been some indication that La Nina may be returning this Fall. La Nina...
bandnerd 07-19-2011, 11:56 AM Not multiple weeks like this summer, but yes we are not strangers to extremely hot weather in Oklahoma.
I was referring to the multiple weeks like this...record-setting heat over and over type weather. It was a little tongue-in-cheek, though. Much is lost over the interwebz.
kevinpate 07-19-2011, 11:56 AM Wait, we're used to this?
Some of us are feeling used up by it.
I do not know if it's the warmest summer since '76 or '77, but I do wonder.
venture 07-19-2011, 12:03 PM I was thinking that it was starting early for us. August will probably be a rainy month.
Btw, there has been some indication that La Nina may be returning this Fall. La Nina...
We are currently leaving La Nina for a fairly neutral weather pattern. Majority of forecast models keep us neutral through early 2012. Only a few models are indicating a return to La Nina again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
venture 07-23-2011, 07:43 PM Sit down.
Are you sitting?
Securely? Okay.
A break, albeit small, may be on the way. (in Craig Ferguson voice) I Knoooooooww. Now this is a ways out and we all know how models like to tease and then never verify. However, it does appear Saturday August 6th might have some hope. Stop laughing. Yes...over 2 weeks ago. Gawd, it is the best I can do so humor me. Temps look like they will hole in the 80s to low 90s that day, before going back up. Some chance for storms that day too, but who knows if it will actually happen.
Otherwise the long range looks dry, except for may some scattered storms over the next few days, and hot. Temps remaining 95 to 110 through August 7th (except for that one brief break). Towards August 6th and 7th, we could have a tropical system in the gulf as well move towards Texas. But it is just a fantasy system as models are horrible in predicting tropical storm formation more than a few days out - and even then it isn't all that good.
Achilleslastand 07-24-2011, 07:19 PM It appears storms are headed for the north metro atm.
Bunty 07-24-2011, 08:28 PM Statement as of 8:22 PM CDT on July 24, 2011
Special Statement
... Significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for Lincoln... Noble and Payne
counties.
At 822 PM CDT... scattered strong thunderstorm were from Stillwater
to near Chandler... moving southeast at 20 mph. Although significant
rainfall will be spotty... wind gust of 40 to 50 mph are likely.
jn1780 07-24-2011, 10:13 PM Its raining here in south Oklahoma City!
Thunder 07-24-2011, 10:57 PM I kept seeing lightning all around, but have not seen a single raindrop from Downtown to MWC.
OKCMallen 07-25-2011, 10:18 AM We got some rain at 50th and Western
Thunder 07-25-2011, 11:10 AM Plenty of rain overnight. Venture been hard at work with his rain dance.
venture 07-25-2011, 12:39 PM Plenty of rain overnight. Venture been hard at work with his rain dance.
Hardly.
Norman had around 0.05" for the entire night. OKC had 0.11" at WRWA and 0.07" at Wiley Post.
If you were lucky and got stuck under a cell that didn't die off right away, it would be bit higher than that. But most areas didn't get anything to talk about. The only good thing so far has been the cloud cover lasting and keeping our temps down.
venture 07-25-2011, 04:24 PM Things are getting bit rowdy to the west side of the Metro area.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF LAKE CHICKASHA...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMBER...ANADARKO...GRACEMONT...
LAKE CHICKASHA...POCASSET...TABLER AND VERDEN.
SkyWestOKC 07-25-2011, 05:20 PM Pretty sad that just one severe thunderstorm constitutes the term "rowdy"!
Hopefully some of those cells move in.
venture 07-29-2011, 03:07 AM I know this will really come as a shock to people... Drought index raised to Exceptional for most of the OKC metro area. This is the worst category.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Drought_Update.jpg
venture 07-29-2011, 12:53 PM Could see some moisture today. Areas most likely to see anything will be along and East of I-35 and in NW OK. Don't expect a lot unless you get stuck under a cell that doesn't want to move.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011072915&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1
venture 07-30-2011, 08:59 PM Models today look depressing as ever. High pressure will likely remain overhead in the Southern Plains through the middle of August will very low/random chances of a little precip. No change in temps. We now have 13 days to go to break our record of 50 days with temps over 100...it appears that we will tie it on August 12th and break it on August 13th while continuing to tally up days.
Our only real hope was for a tropical system to come into the gulf, but Don was too far south and the next one (soon to be Emily) appears to recurve out to sea if the models are correct.
venture 08-01-2011, 12:49 PM I know it probably doesn't matter...but its the first "severe" advisory of August. LOL This replaces the Heat Advisory we've had in place for a few weeks now.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES...
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-012145-
/O.UPG.KOUN.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110805T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.EH.W.0001.110801T0730Z-110805T0300Z/
230 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY.
* THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO POSE THE THREAT OF CAUSING
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES AND POSSIBLY DEATH. DON`T BECOME A
VICTIM OF THE HEAT.
* HEAT INDEX: REACHING 110 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING
LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE HEAT STRESS WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY
THE PERSISTENT HOT WEATHER.
* IMPACTS: THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. TRY TO REMAIN IN AN AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT AND LEARN TO RECOGNIZE THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS. CHECK ON FRIENDS...FAMILY...AND PETS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LOOSE-FITTING
CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE...AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.
venture 08-01-2011, 12:55 PM So other fun facts...ugh...
July 2011 has become the warmest month for Oklahoma City & Wichita Falls in recorded history. This beats August 1936 (dust bowl & longest 100+ streak), July 1980 (year with most 100+ days), and 1934 (dust bowl).
Through today...
OKC is at 7 consecutive days of 100+. Previous streak of 13 was from June 29 to June 11. August 4-25, 1936 holds the record at 22 days.
We have had 39 days of 100+, 11 shy now of the all time record of 50 set in 1980.
Max temp for the year has been 100, shy of the 113 all time record on August 11, 1936.
Total Precip for the Oct 1 to Sept 30 time frame is 18.76 inches...the driest we had was 15.48" in 1910-11, and the 2nd driest was 17.62" in 1900-01.
Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=4
OKCisOK4me 08-01-2011, 03:59 PM Max temp for the year has been 100, shy of the 113 all time record on August 11, 1936.
110?
Thunder 08-01-2011, 04:46 PM I was going to correct him hours ago, but didn't want to embarrass him. lol
venture 08-01-2011, 04:47 PM Oops...yeah meant to type 110. My bad.
OKCisOK4me 08-01-2011, 05:51 PM People don't get embarrassed on the internet, lol. It's all good. I just didn't want some fool from say, Las Vegas, creeping up on the thread and thinking we're a bunch of whinos for 100 being a max high of the summer ;-)
Thunder 08-01-2011, 05:59 PM I don't think people in Las Vegas know exactly what Oklahoma Heat is all about. Las Vegas is in a desert, right? They could have higher temperatures than us and still 'feel' cooler while our temperatures are lower with higher humidity. Bottom line, we are dying here, the same as I am trying to survive. lol
If this year is truly an indication that we are speeding up on the Global Warming, then lets hope it don't get to extreme with millions of deaths. We just have to hold on and ride it out through the upcoming years and hopefully some biggest glaciers break apart disrupting the oceans' currents bringing us a cycle of 'ice age' as in cooler weather, but hopefully not to extreme to make most of the planet uninhabitable with frigid arctic weather.
BG918 08-01-2011, 06:11 PM Weak front will be arriving in northern OK by Thursday creating a chance of widely scattered t-storms, similar to a few of the days last week. Hope and pray that one develops over your house for some temporary relief. :dizzy:
venture 08-02-2011, 04:06 PM So...rain chances...since we know its going to be hot for the decade...
- Weds into Thurs - very slight chance (like 10%) over Northern OK...best chance is NW.
- Chances might linger Friday through the Weekend in spots, depending on outflow boundaries and such. Don't expect much.
- Monday - slight chance of rain over Western OK.
- Thurs the 11th - slight chance Eastern OK
- Friday the 12th - better chance of storms over Northern OK...might spill into Saturday.
- Thurs the 18th - Slight chance statewide...but I wouldn't bet on this one.
So what is the trigger for some of these chances? This weekend after the front passes, if it does, we could see a move to a modified NW flow. The ridge over us would start to move to the west a bit and get us in a better setup to get some upper energy to drop down and help increase rain chances. It is all very questionable right now as these heat domes sometimes require a very vigorous upper system to break them down. Chances are more likely for that to be what is needed, so we may have to wait until our 2nd storm season kicks up in Sept/Oct. Not saying we'll be 100+ through then...but don't expect highs in the 80s for awhile unless you get lucky with a popup storm...or we get a tropical system to come visit.
OKCisOK4me 08-02-2011, 04:15 PM I don't think people in Las Vegas know exactly what Oklahoma Heat is all about. Las Vegas is in a desert, right? They could have higher temperatures than us and still 'feel' cooler while our temperatures are lower with higher humidity. Bottom line, we are dying here, the same as I am trying to survive. lol
If this year is truly an indication that we are speeding up on the Global Warming, then lets hope it don't get to extreme with millions of deaths. We just have to hold on and ride it out through the upcoming years and hopefully some biggest glaciers break apart disrupting the oceans' currents bringing us a cycle of 'ice age' as in cooler weather, but hopefully not to extreme to make most of the planet uninhabitable with frigid arctic weather.
Yeah, let's not "The Day After Tomorrow" it here. I'd like the Devon Tower to still be in place and not plowed over by a southerly moving glacier, lol. ;-)
Thunder 08-02-2011, 04:28 PM Venture, can you tell us if there are any technology available...maybe in testing...that can somehow change local weather?
venture 08-02-2011, 06:18 PM Yeah, let's not "The Day After Tomorrow" it here. I'd like the Devon Tower to still be in place and not plowed over by a southerly moving glacier, lol. ;-)
But we would probably get some really nice lakes and rivers out of the deal then. :-)
OKCisOK4me 08-02-2011, 07:07 PM But we would probably get some really nice lakes and rivers out of the deal then. :-)
As long as it would take, only if my ancestors got to experience them ;-)
Thunder 08-03-2011, 02:24 PM Not all of Oklahoma is miserably hot - Boise City in the panhandle has a temp of 79 degrees! #okwx #wishiwasthere
by ounwcm via twitter 2:19 PM
Anyone ready to move? :-O
venture 08-03-2011, 03:19 PM Scattered strong and severe storms popping up across Central Oklahoma now. Should keep us from breaking the 113 all time record.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT
* AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF CARNEGIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...ALFALFA...CARNEGIE...
EAKLY...FORT COBB RESERVOIR AND FORT COBB.
Roadhawg 08-03-2011, 03:23 PM Venture, can you tell us if there are any technology available...maybe in testing...that can somehow change local weather?
air conditioners
venture 08-03-2011, 04:05 PM This stuff needs to come east a bit.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011
OKC017-032145-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0455.000000T0000Z-110803T2145Z/
CANADIAN OK-
401 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY...
AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALUMET...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CALUMET AND CONCHO.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 107 AND 120.
venture 08-03-2011, 04:32 PM Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
425 pm cdt wed aug 3 2011
the national weather service in norman has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
* until 515 pm cdt
* at 425 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm over southern oklahoma city...3 miles south of will
rogers airport...moving northeast at 15 mph.
Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
* locations in the warning include bethany...del city...forest
park...mustang...southern oklahoma city...spencer...valley brook...
Warr acres and yukon.
adaniel 08-03-2011, 04:49 PM Raining hard here in Midtown with quite a bit of wind. The way people are acting at my office you would swear they've never seen water falling from the sky before.
venture 08-03-2011, 05:13 PM Not a drop here in Norman...there is always tomorrow I guess. LOL
Thunder 08-03-2011, 05:19 PM I think we should all take this time to thank and bless Venture for all he have given us today. We will take any amount and be thankful for it.
dmoor82 08-03-2011, 05:22 PM Yea the winds were pretty strong and unexpected,but atleast we got some rain.LOL,even I stared out my apartment window in Amazement....Ohhhhhhh rain!
Thunder 08-03-2011, 05:23 PM Yea the winds were pretty strong and unexpected,but atleast we got some rain.LOL,even I stared out my apartment window in Amazement....Ohhhhhhh rain!
I went to the extreme. I stood out there and shouted as loud as I could... "I LOVE YOU VENTURE!!!" ... Not sure if he could hear me or not. :-)
betts 08-03-2011, 05:28 PM I took an umbrella and stood out in it until it quit. It felt really good to be outside and not feel miserable.
dmoor82 08-03-2011, 05:32 PM The Weather God's said NO to OKC setting an All-Time high record temp Today!
Thunder 08-03-2011, 05:33 PM The Weather God's said NO to OKC setting an All-Time high record temp Today!
But we still did broke the date's temp. lol
Roadhawg 08-03-2011, 05:45 PM Got some good rain, lots of wind and a good drop in the temps *YEA* and it's all because I washed my jeep at noon
OSUMom 08-03-2011, 05:48 PM I loved the rain, but when it is over 100 degrees little balls of ice should not fall from the sky. It's like teasing. "Look it is sooo much cooler up here...."
venture 08-03-2011, 06:05 PM The Weather God's said NO to OKC setting an All-Time high record temp Today!
It was going to be tough to bust through to 113 today with the increased moisture in the air.
Either way, today we did set a record for warmest maximum temp - 109, and warmest minimum temperature - 81.
We are now over 5 inches of rain below the average for the year...of course one downpour could catch us up, but that really wouldn't do any good.
Bostonfan 08-03-2011, 06:23 PM What are the chances for tomorrow?
PennyQuilts 08-03-2011, 06:33 PM Only 5 inches low? I would have thought in my neighborhood it would be closer to 20. Nearly every storm has split and missed us. We got 0.04 inches and I was so grateful.
BG918 08-03-2011, 06:35 PM There is a chance every day for the next several days. Isolated storms in the afternoon all depending on outflow boundaries and the frontal position. The heat will still be intense unless you are under a storm. This is a welcome sight!
venture 08-03-2011, 10:01 PM Only 5 inches low? I would have thought in my neighborhood it would be closer to 20. Nearly every storm has split and missed us. We got 0.04 inches and I was so grateful.
Well that is based on the observations at Will Rogers...of course that is one little dot in the entire area. Most areas are significantly below that. The wonderful mesonet is a gift to really measure how far behind we are...
http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/last_365_days/drought_wildfire
Based on the last 365 days, not just this calendar year...Central OK is over 17 inches below normal or the driest period ever since 1921. Year to date, we are over 11 inches below normal or the 2nd driest ever on record since 1921. The driest period in the calendar year, shocker here (sarcasm), is 1936.
So we have a LOT of room to go. At this point we need a few things to happen...
- Prolonged period of soaking light rain. No heavy downpours because that really doesn't do anything for the drought. It fills the rivers and lakes and that's about it.
- A wet winter. Now I'm not saying yucky rain or ice storms in 30 degrees...but if we can get a winter with 30 inches of snow again, that would be amazing. However, we need the snow to have a much higher moisture content than what we had last winter and we need it to really stick around. If we can get a good snow pack going, with a slow thaw in the Spring, everyone's lawn will look amazing.
- A break from the heat...it is seriously drying us out fast and fast. We need to get away from it to retain what moisture we have. The map below shows the moisture content in the ground...2 feet under the surface. I went with this graphic since it is obviously drier above it.
How to read this... 0.0 is completely bone dry. No moisture at all. 1.0 is saturated completely...so think mud, marsh like, etc...good underground water table. As you notice from the graphic, we are pretty screwed right now. I'm thinking the 0.9 readings are bit out of whack unless the sites are very close to a pond or underground stream.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW60.grad.png
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