Meanwhile, here is a special weather statement for counties straight north of Oklahoma City:

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for garfield...grant...kay...
Kingfisher...logan...noble and payne counties. Strong and gusty winds will emerge from an area of collapsing showers moving east across north central oklahoma. Frequent wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range may be expected...along with occasional gusts to 60 mph or somewhat higher. The strongest gusts are most likely to be felt from lahoma over to enid and and perry. In addition to strong wind gusts...the air will dry out very quickly and the temperature will rise. Temperatures well into the 90s will be possible until the wind subsides. Hazards include...Occasional wind gusts to 60 mph...

Didn't the Wichita area have some sort of freakish heat burst because of these storms?

I went to bed around 5am or maybe 6am. Just after 8am, mom woke me up for breakfast and she said it rained last night. I said it didn't, then when I looked out, it was wet. So...must be mysterious rainfall went on.

I went to bed around 5am or maybe 6am. Just after 8am, mom woke me up for breakfast and she said it rained last night. I said it didn't, then when I looked out, it was wet. So...must be mysterious rainfall went on.

Or maybe she ran a sprinkler and was just messing with you. When my mom was younger, she wasn't above a bit of fun at times.

Or maybe she ran a sprinkler and was just messing with you. When my mom was younger, she wasn't above a bit of fun at times.

She wouldn't waste water on the street and all the driveways.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1170.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102031Z - 102300Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
STORM COVERAGE...NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A WW POSSIBLE.

MIDLEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER WRN TX/OK AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER
NM. THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CINH AND
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG IN SERN KS/NERN OK WITH VALUES
DECREASING SWWD. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

..JIRAK.. 06/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

V, I brushed it off for yesterday then was surprised that storms actually happened and even gave us tornado thrill. Today, I'll be waiting to see what surprises we will have.

It was depressing when those amazing storm clusters only went through the northern half of the metro during the day. Now I see even better storm clusters on the right path. HALLELUJAH!!!

Guys, KOCO has an Android App, you can download and install for free. There is a tab, you click on Weather and there are several radar options! Later on, they will update the app to include streaming videos and the LW. For now, use the normal browser of your choice to get on the LW.

Venture, you need to create an app for your site. :-)

Thoughts for today on the the http://www.storm-scope.com blog at: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=121

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1183.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111928Z - 112130Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS
POSSIBLE.

MIDLEVEL CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE RED RIVER AND IN THE TX
PANHANDLE INVOF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT RETREATS
NWD. WITH CINH CONTINUING TO ERODE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG/.
MESOANALYSIS AND AREA PROFILERS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..JIRAK.. 06/11/2011

http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=27

Venture, just curious, are the term "damaging winds" a tame way to say "tornado" ???

Venture, just curious, are the term "damaging winds" a tame way to say "tornado" ???

There is a minor tornado risk today, but no...damaging winds means straight line/downburst winds.

A watch is up now for parts of western OK. Details are posted on Storm Scope.

Ah, okay. I guess a nappy will help speed along the process.

We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

Maybe you wouldnt be so bored if you had searched for a three year old boy a few days ago. If you want a thrill, do something that can only result in damage to yourself.

Hoping we get some rain later today.

MCS moving through North Central OK currently. Current trends are indicating increasing chances that it will move through the Metro area, mainly along and north of I-40 (but could build south a bit more). Widespread destructive winds over 75 mph are possible. Radar is indicating some areas of wind 80 mph or higher.

Gust front is currently move East and ESE from around Braman to Tonkawa to Billings to Perry to Marshall to Dover to Greenfield to Weatherford.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
BLACKWELL TO 8 MILES EAST OF GARBER TO 6 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PONCA CITY...PERRY...BLACKWELL...
AND STILLWATER.

...quick update on nrn ok mcs...

Another watch will be needed to the east of severe mcs moving toward
nern ok attm. Airmass and forcing present across ok appears
sufficient to maintain this system and recent observations from ok
mesonet and end suggest severe wind gusts are occurring along the
leading edge of the mcs outflow. Ww coordination is taking place
now.

..carbin.. 06/12/2011

Ww 466 severe tstm ok 120535z - 121100z
axis..60 statute miles north and south of line..
50w tul/tulsa ok/ - 30s gmj/grove ok/
..aviation coords.. 50nm n/s /48w tul - 30w rzc/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030.

Those storms need to move southeast. :-(

Lucky some southern cells coming our way. Nice gusty winds out there.

From my blog today... http://www.storm-scope.com/


Temps will be quickly heading back into the 100+ category today across much of Central and Southern Oklahoma. Based on current conditions and forecast models, it now appears that we will see strong to severe storms break out along and ahead of a very weak cold front coming through the state today. The extreme temps today will help in busting the very strong cap in place and storms could start firing between 5 and 7 PM in/near the I-44 cooridor. SPC has issued a slight risk for today and HRRR model is also showing this convection forming. It is important to note that HRRR tends to be fairly accurate on showing storms forming, but can very easily be off by their location by 50-75 miles. Current thinking is the 14Z is a bit too south on the area of initiation.

14Z HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011061414&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

I found this a bit entertaining...

@ 11:30 AM SPC: Slight risk moved to cover most of the I-44 corridor including nearly all NE, Central, and SW OK...previous morning outlooks had just far Northern and Northeast OK.

@ 11:45AM from KOCO: Update from Sarah Libby -- models are backing off a bit on the severe weather, pushing the primary threat to the north. However, it's an ever-evolving situation, and we'll keep you ahead of any storms!

@ 11:55AM NWS Norman: Follows SPC's thinking and expands their slight risk area to the same locations (normally they match up, but there are plenty of times when they'll go with a different area or different risk level than what SPC puts out - especially for very local events).

Wouldn't be interested in knowing what model KOCO is looking at. HRRR is staying with it showing the front blowing up along I-44 later today. Just interesting to watch TV mets completely contradict NWS. Some days it seems like they use the NWS forecasts that are 6-12 hours old as their own, which can cause them to always be behind of what actual current trends area.

Anywho...NWS Norman noon HWO:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201106141658-KOUN-FLUS44-HWOOUN

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY... TO WEATHERFORD... TO QUANAH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF STILLWATER... THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA... LAWTON... ADA... VERNON... AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 5 PM
TO 2 AM.

IMPACTS...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR HAIL THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT... LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY... WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
EVENING... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA... TO NEAR
STILLWATER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT... AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE INITIAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY BE LIMITED... THE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO LARGER
CLUSTERS AND PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT LEAST INITIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT... WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER... AS THE STORMS DEVELOP PRONOUNCED OUTFLOWS... THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

The storms are gonna be near Lawton, or Tulsa?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1219.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-SWRN OK / WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142036Z - 142200Z

SCATTERED STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY BY 22-00Z.
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE MICROBURSTS WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT
POSSIBLE IN CNTRL-NERN OK. A WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE--
ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL HIGH PLAINS S/WV TROUGH--IS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z...WITH IT PROGRESSING EWD INTO CNTRL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN
OK/NW TX WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN AGITATED FIELD OF ACCAS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ANVIL SPROUTS BEING
GENERATED FROM THE MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OKC METRO.
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE 90S INTO THE LOWER 100S
AS STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP AS DEWPOINTS
HOLD IN THE 52-58 RANGE SW TO THE 58-66 RANGE NE E OF THE DRYLINE.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARDS
EARLIER SCTD STORM INITIATION...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY IN THE 22-23Z
TIMEFRAME.

AS VERY STEEP LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...PW/S NEAR 1 INCH ARE YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /AOA 1500 J/KG MLCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. INCREASING
MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE
MICROBURSTS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL
CNTRL-NERN OK.

..SMITH.. 06/14/2011

A lot of rapid CU growth along the cold front coming into the I-44 corridor. HRRR highlights severe storms should rapidly form around 6PM and move south through the state for the rest of the evening.

Urgent - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm watch number 476
nws storm prediction center norman ok
530 pm cdt tue jun 14 2011

the nws storm prediction center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of

southwest...central...and northeast oklahoma
western north texas

effective this tuesday afternoon from 530 pm until midnight cdt.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter...thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest of wichita falls texas to 40 miles northwest of grove oklahoma. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou6).

Remember...a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information...continue...ww 475...

Discussion...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop soon along a cold front across ok...and along the dryline over western north tx. This activity will spread east-northeastward across the watch area. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for organized multicell or supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

Aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030.


Probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : 20%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : 05%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 50%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 30%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 50%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 20%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 90%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.0
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 25030
particularly dangerous situation : No

There are some sprinkles, but I am not having any hope, because the cold front is too close and it will quickly pass on through. Its a good thing I watered the lawn after I mowed today.

Spoke too soon. :-O

Nice storm cell decided to backbuild and change movement toward me. :-D

My mom said golf ball sized hair around NW 63rd & May. Over here at NW 23rd & Meridian we had just pea sized hail. But, there were big fat drops of rain that turned into a downpour for about 5-10 minutes. Sunny and dry now.

Nothing on MacArthur and NW Expressway. At least not at my house. Could have used a sprinkle or two.

Power is finally back here. Some pretty significant tree and fence damage and minor to moderate roof damage in this part of Norman. Lost one large tree and the fence. Roof has shingles missing from a couple areas. One large area about 4-5 ft wide opened enough to where I had water leaking in to the house. Unfortunately can't do an insurance claim on it...for one its pretty minor to risk having insurance rates jump. So I get to learn how not to fall off the roof and repair it myself. LOL Should be interesting.

Anywho. Peak of the storm was very intense. Winds were probably easy 80 mph or higher. Had two major bursts of wind. One period lasted a couple minutes before any precip started. Then rain started with small hail. Hail increased to golf balls which destroyed a lot of vegetation. The hail portion lasted a good 5-10 minutes with bursts of wind 70-80 mph. Shocked we didn't lose more trees, but nearly every lot has at least one down.

Integris got golf balls.

I’m not sure of the exact location but Gary England said that several people saw Tornado in Norman. According to Gary one person said that it was about 40 yards wide.

There are a few small tree branches and stockade fences down near my home.
Our power came back on at around 9pm. This is when having underground utilities really helps.
I can still hear the power generators at the new Hospital in NW Norman
I caught 1.35 inches of very welcome rain at my house. I was unable to accurately measure the perception that fell in the form of hail. The hail covered the ground. The storm obliterated my tomatoes and squash but it sounds like we made out better than many others.

Integris got golf balls.

Same where I live near 63rd and Meridian.

Power is finally back here. Some pretty significant tree and fence damage and minor to moderate roof damage in this part of Norman. Lost one large tree and the fence. Roof has shingles missing from a couple areas. One large area about 4-5 ft wide opened enough to where I had water leaking in to the house. Unfortunately can't do an insurance claim on it...for one its pretty minor to risk having insurance rates jump. So I get to learn how not to fall off the roof and repair it myself. LOL Should be interesting.

It doesn't sound like minor damages to me. Take some pictures and post on here. Call your insurance agency and inquire if filing a claim will raise the rates. I guess it just depend how long you been having the coverage with them and the amount paid since then. It was your money that you gave to them... If they used that money wisely, it should be adequate to repair your roof or provide you a whole new roof that you have always wanted without hiking the rates. So, give them a call. Mom's insurance rates did not go up one bit the last time a claim was filed for her roof. Each case is different, so do not give up hope. :-)

+1 to Thunder's advice to at least contact your agent. With hailstones that large and enough wind to tear shingles off, the odds are very high that your roof is totalled. In last year's storm in OKC, my house got hit with softball-sized hail. Although there was no roof damage visible to the untrained eye, it was totalled -- along with my guttering. I was lucky not to get worse damage, several neighbors lost windows and two autos next door were totalled.

It doesn't sound like minor damages to me. Take some pictures and post on here. Call your insurance agency and inquire if filing a claim will raise the rates. I guess it just depend how long you been having the coverage with them and the amount paid since then. It was your money that you gave to them... If they used that money wisely, it should be adequate to repair your roof or provide you a whole new roof that you have always wanted without hiking the rates. So, give them a call. Mom's insurance rates did not go up one bit the last time a claim was filed for her roof. Each case is different, so do not give up hope. :-)

Unfortunately it is a bit more complicated than that. Had a claim done last Fall on the roof, but the contractor kept putting it off until Winter came around. At that point it got pushed to wait for this year, needless to say they gave up since they had internal issues and fired several of their employees. Unfortunately other contractors came in much higher than what the insurance company settled for...so yeah. Just a crappy situation. :-P

That is just sad. I know how much you love a nice roof. No phone is complete without that special roof. :-(

If you are going to be doing repairs yourself (or hopefully you will be getting help), just do not fall. If you fall, we will have no one to keep us safe on here. :-(

Unfortunately it is a bit more complicated than that. Had a claim done last Fall on the roof, but the contractor kept putting it off until Winter came around.Still, this was a new storm and new damage. I met with my insurance agent yesterday for our annual review of coverage, and the conversation got around to roofs and hail damage. He told me that he himself had had to replace his own roof twice within two years.

Of course, the deductible can make things really difficult. Mine last year was almost $2,000 -- which I really didn't have. Still I managed to find a way to pay it and get things fixed.

Still, this was a new storm and new damage. I met with my insurance agent yesterday for our annual review of coverage, and the conversation got around to roofs and hail damage. He told me that he himself had had to replace his own roof twice within two years.

Of course, the deductible can make things really difficult. Mine last year was almost $2,000 -- which I really didn't have. Still I managed to find a way to pay it and get things fixed.

Yeah, never got around to getting the original claim repaired yet...so going to see if they can just amend the original claim for the additional damage. Then figure out where to pull the money from to get it down.

EDIT: Well just an update. Insurance company is doing another claim regardless since the damage was more significant than before, so we'll see what happens.

power, FINALLY back on. 15+ HOURS (we left for phone recharge and fill da belly time and it came on while we were out) This was our longest outage since Dec 07 (but thankfully not that freaking 6 day crud this time)

Lots of paint knocked off trim by hail. One tree split and part down. Garden .. RIP. Most of da lovely's recent plantings ... RIP. Deer figurine from her dearly departed momma, a small hail hole (whew)
One full night without my cpapper .... thank goodness I had a nap yesterday afternoon or else I might of put on an elmer fudd hat and gone hunting.

Has anyone heard about the Sigificant Severe weather outbreak Oklahoma is suppose to have Mon-Wed ? If so can you detail it ?

Good chance of thunderstorms/severe weather next week...I'm sure Venture will give a synopsis this weekend. The weathern pattern is shifting, which is good news for us because it won't be as hot and we should have more chances of rain.

Nice somewhat unexpected rainfall last night on the north and east sides of the OKC metro. A few power outages reported in Tulsa as the line moved through.

Kool. I hope it to be really exciting next week. It will really help a lot with the water conservation, because mom always gripe about water usage (max lawn watering every two days), even though I pay this month's bill (only a low $43 total).

Good chance of thunderstorms/severe weather next week...I'm sure Venture will give a synopsis this weekend. The weathern pattern is shifting, which is good news for us because it won't be as hot and we should have more chances of rain.

Nice somewhat unexpected rainfall last night on the north and east sides of the OKC metro. A few power outages reported in Tulsa as the line moved through.

Good. Too frequently every year the 2nd half of June dries up and gets hotter.

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute with the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation puts out long term weather forecasts for places in much of the world. On June 21, Tuesday, it is forecasting over 2 inches of rain for Oklahoma City. See at:
http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Oklahoma/Oklahoma_City/long.html

Yeah like BG said, it is definitely going to get stormier and wetter going forward it appears. Which means a lot of people (at least in Norman) need to get those tarps up fairly quickly. Driving around today saw a lot of exposed plywood on houses, and if it is anything like my situation, that can equate to a new indoor water feature that won't really raise the value of your home. :-) Looks like insurance companies are just slammed though.

Quick outlook based on the morning GFS run...

Today - A given. Extremely hot west. Storms on going NE. Could see more form today across most of OK except for SC and SE sections. Slight risk is up for all other areas.

Friday - GFS keeps it pretty dry, even hotter. Instabilities will be very high tomorrow, so still except to see these typical afternoon/evening strong to severe storms to pop up in isolated areas.

Saturday - Same as Friday.

Sunday - Hot again. Instabilities ease back a bit, but still chance of storms - greatest in the NW.

Monday - Hot still. Not a lot of precip, but isolated storms are probably.

Tuesday - Temps cooler into the 80s and 90s. Storms are appearing very probable across Western OK early in the evening spreading across all of the state overnight. Some extremely heavy raid (over 3 to 5 inches) possible south of I-40.

Wednesday - Temps in the 80s. High instability. Widely scattered storms across the state, with best chances in the NW where another complex will form.

Thursday - Ongoing storm complex from overnight, with more heavy rain possible in the western half of the state, amounts still near a half inch in eastern parts. Temps will get held down some due to the rain. Same with instability. Rain during the afternoon should mainly be isolated to scattered with POPs increasing the further SE you get in the state.

Friday (24th) - Overnight storms look most likely along the Red River. Dry elsewhere. Chance for an isolated storm, but main story will be a complex forming in CO/KS that will have a chance of dropping into OK.

Saturday (25th) - Rinse and repeat.

Sunday (26th) - Looks mostly dry except for NW OK.

Monday (27th) - Chance of early storms west, isolated elsewhere late.

Tuesday (28th) - Mostly dry. Isolate storm possible.

Wednesday (29th) - Chance of storms north of I-40, otherwise isolated.

Thursday (30th) - Storms on going from the overnight across most of Oklahoma. Additional complex could form in KS/NW OK.

Friday (1st) - Storms on going west early, dry most other places.

Saturday (2nd) - Storms on going east early, dry west.

I'm going to be bringing the Storm Scope chat room up later today. It will remain up until we get into another dry spell. So those that are registered already, expect to see my spam. :-)

Are the storms next week mostly going to be hail, wind and heavy rain makers ? I'm in Southeast Oklahoma ( leflore county) what does the tornado threat look like for next week ? I don't mind the heavy rains, but I can live without the tornadoes ! Thanks in advance :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1248.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 162037Z - 162200Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS INCREASING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIALLY DEVELOP WHERE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100F AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S SUPPORTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS/ AND STRONGER INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SWRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK LATER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THE PRIMARY THREATS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY INTERACT WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS W-CNTRL KS WHERE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE A LITTLE GREATER.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2011

Ww 486 severe tstm ks ok tx 162055z - 170300z axis..60 statute miles east and west of line..
35nne ddc/dodge city ks/ - 55sw csm/clinton ok/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /51ene gck - 31ne cds/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0486_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY ROUGHLY 22Z FROM SW KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING THE CAP. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PRESENT E OF THE DRYLINE WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
DRYLINE IN SW KS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

WS 0486
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 40%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Don't know if anyone posted this already--if not--here it is...microburst in Norman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ddot9jqOY&feature=email

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, there's a chance of rain overnight here in OKC, if a line forms to the west and sweeps east? Will it hold together? If so, AWESOME! Rain, lighting, and loud booming thunder. That's all I request...

Don't know if anyone posted this already--if not--here it is...microburst in Norman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ddot9jqOY&feature=email

Amazing!

Slight risk today for some wind...hail...lightning.

Someone is being very bad on Twitter today. Saw it in Venture's Lair.


themahler:
When you're hot, you're hot! OKC has tied today's record high, set in 1924, at 201 degrees. Will we break it? #okwx [via Twitter]

Such a boring day. They always say when the weather is not hot enough that it needs to be hotter to break cap, but when it actually is really hot (103)....still no storm.

Yes, it can be too hot to storm.

Watch is now up for the Metro area and to the south.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0504_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 499...WW 500...WW
501...WW 502...WW 503...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH
EXTENDS NNE/SSW THRU THE WATCH. HOT VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INCLUDING VERY HIGH DCAPE SUPPORTS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24015.


PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24015
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Um, twc is saying southeast oklahoma is in for a severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes. Can anyone give me their thoughts on this? Man just when i thought it was safe to come out of the storm shelter.

Um, twc is saying southeast oklahoma is in for a severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes. Can anyone give me their thoughts on this? Man just when i thought it was safe to come out of the storm shelter.

No idea where they got that at all.

Here is the risk for today, tomorrow, and Tuesday...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO CHEYENNE... AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED... WITH A DRYLINE STRETCHED THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM AIR CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED... WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. AS THE STORMS TRAVEL TOWARD A STRONGER CAP... THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106 AND 112 MAY BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY COMPARED WITH SUNDAY... WITH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ONE MORE VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. PERSONS WORKING OUTDOORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE VEGETATION IS DRY...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

---------
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...OK/TX...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN OK INTO WEST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES OF INITIATION DUE TO INCREASING INHIBITION FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...KS/OK...

VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS KS INTO OK WHERE READINGS WILL REBOUND ABOVE 100F IN MANY PLACES. THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUPERCELL SHEAR PROFILES...WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD BASES MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NWD. OTHERWISE...HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EWD EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO SRN MN. WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STALL TEMPORARILY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL EASE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL LOW SUCH THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BECOME RATHER STACKED. NET RESULT WILL BE A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...JUXTAPOSED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.

GIVEN THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IT APPEARS THE CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX WHERE INTENSE HEAT WILL FORCE HIGH BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS FROM JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW OVER SRN MN...ESEWD ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI. THIS ZONE OF INTEREST WILL BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION POSING A THREAT FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

Thank you so much ! I was really getting worried ! Dr Forbes still has central Oklahoma and south east Oklahoma in his risks for a outbreak. Many people have told me his forecasts are not all that reliable tho . I don't know tho, but again thank you !!