View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2011



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Thunder
05-30-2011, 11:42 PM
Venture, lately the weather have been extremely boring. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!!! :-)

ljbab728
05-31-2011, 12:33 AM
Venture, lately the weather have been extremely boring. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!!! :-)

No, Venture. Leave things boring. Boring is good.

venture
05-31-2011, 01:04 AM
A line of strong to severe storms now forming along the entire cold front & dryline just to the west of the main body of Oklahoma. we'll see how long these actually survive as they move in.


No, Venture. Leave things boring. Boring is good.

Sorry but boring doesn't address the exceptional drought still being felt in western OK. Not saying we need severe weather, it just happens. We do need any moisture we can get. I'd rather we not go through another fire season as bad as this past year (or one a couple of years back).

venture
05-31-2011, 01:05 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1038.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX...WRN OK...ERN PANHANDLES OF TX AND
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310439Z - 310615Z

AT 04Z...DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN LEA COUNTY NM NNEWD THROUGH
LUBBOCK/ROBERTS COUNTY TX TO BEAVER COUNTY OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTED
WEAK/PAC COLD FRONT THAT IN TURN EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS CVS/ROW AREAS.
LEADING EDGE OF MUCH MORE INTENSE COLD FRONTAL SURGE WAS EVIDENT
OVER SERN KS AND SWRN CO...AND WILL OVERTAKE PAC FRONT AND DRYLINE
FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. TWO INITIALLY DISTINCT
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SOME
EVENTUAL OVERLAP/MERGER POSSIBLE...

1. QUASI-LINEAR MCS RESPONSIBLE FOR SERIAL-DERECHO EVENT FROM
KS-MN...WHICH MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MOVE
EWD OVER PORTIONS NWRN OK. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 FOR
DETAILS FROM KS NWD. AS FRONTAL SURGE OVERTAKES DRYLINE...STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL IMPINGE UPON MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR KS BORDER AND MID-UPPER 50S NEAR
CAPROCK OF NW TX. MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
FRONTAL LIFT VERSUS MLCINH THAT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH CONTINUES SFC
DIABATIC COOLING.

2. WIDELY SCATTERED AND APPARENTLY HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE SW CDS TO S LBB. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STG CINH FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS...150-300
J/KG...ALTHOUGH BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT WITHIN
AND ATOP CAPPING LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45 KT SLY LLJ. EVEN
DISCOUNTING NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
EVIDENT TO SUPPORT TSTM ORGANIZATION...E.G. 45-55 KT. STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT MUCAPE ESTIMATES 2500-3500 J/KG AS
WELL. AS SUCH...ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
STG-SVR GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011

ljbab728
05-31-2011, 01:06 AM
A line of strong to severe storms now forming along the entire cold front & dryline just to the west of the main body of Oklahoma. we'll see how long these actually survive as they move in.



Sorry but boring doesn't address the exceptional drought still being felt in western OK. Not saying we need severe weather, it just happens. We do need any moisture we can get. I'd rather we not go through another fire season as bad as this past year (or one a couple of years back).

Boring doesn't mean no rain. It means no severe weather.

venture
05-31-2011, 01:11 AM
Boring doesn't mean no rain. It means no severe weather.

Unfortunately this is also a state called Oklahoma. :-) Until you find a way to move the Rocky Mountains and Gulf of Mexico...we'll always remain in the ripe place for this. If it bothers you that much, the Pacific Northwest is a good start. lol

ljbab728
05-31-2011, 01:52 AM
Unfortunately this is also a state called Oklahoma. :-) Until you find a way to move the Rocky Mountains and Gulf of Mexico...we'll always remain in the ripe place for this. If it bothers you that much, the Pacific Northwest is a good start. lol

I didn't say it bothered me any more than living with the possibility of earthquakes bothers California residents. I lived here all of my life and you learn to live with it. That doesn't mean I have to like severe weather though.

Boo1083
05-31-2011, 02:33 AM
I'm from Califorina, and have lived in Oklahoma area around 20 years now. I'll never get use to the tornadoes! I don't mind a good thunderstorm tho, ya know rain, hail, thunder, lighting, wind ( in the max speed of don't blow away my house)! Every state has natural disasters,but I think this spring has put a new fear in a lot of people. I can't afford to move, so I'll just do the best I can and have a underground storm shelter built, and pray it saves our lifes.

venture
05-31-2011, 09:21 AM
Fear is the worst thing to have. Respect is what you need. Weather is never to be feared but always respected. Sometimes it requires you to move out of its way and understand that we are just a spec on this rock and there are forces much more powerful than us here. I've been immersing myself into meteorology for about 15 years now, and chased for over 12 of those. Yeah nerves and emotions can take hold if you let it, but if you attempt to understand what is going on and respect it, the fear is never there. Sometimes you get stuck in a situation which sucks and you have to be alert to act fast, but if you let fear take over you can make mistakes and get stupid. Get use to tornadoes? Eh...they aren't an everyday thing, but they do happen at least 50 times a year in this state.

This spring has been a bit rough simply because of where these things hit. Everything is random, but the law of averages are always in play with weather. Things are meant to balance out and eventually something bad is going to happen. Just be prepared, accept that it is part of our environment, and live your lives. The nice thing about tornadoes, they are fairly predictably on where they are are going to be during on going storms. However lightning can jump tens of miles away from a storm and strike. Is there more fear of lightning than a tornado? Probably not. However, on average, lightning kills just as many people as tornadoes (this year is a rarity remember). If you continue to look at averages flooding and heat kill twice as many people as tornadoes. How many people do we see driving through high water? Would they do the same if it was a tornado in front of them? Doubtful. There is a lack of respect there.

So I do my thing and let mother nature do hers. I love seeing her in action and the uniqueness of what those of us on the Plains take for granted (not saying other places don't experience the same, we just get it more). Very few places can have blizzards, tornado outbreaks, raging wild fires, flooding, extreme cold, and impacts from tropical weather like we do here. It is our way of life and the uniqueness of this area. Respect it, enjoy it to a certain extent, but never fear it. Last year an EF-4 missed the house by less than a mile. This year an EF-4 (currently rated that) lifted about 3-4 miles from the house. Do I lose sleep every time storms are possible? Not at all. Respect and understanding.

SoonerDave
05-31-2011, 09:46 AM
Hey, Venture...awesome last post.

I think what you said regarding "respect" versus "fear" is the byline every meteorologist that works this part of the country should hold near and dear to their hearts. Fear is what (some of) the local TV weatherguys want and prey upon. The best advice if you live here is to learn about severe weather. I grew up here, and as a kid I was terrified of the weather and the slightest warnings the local TV guys gave out. As I got older, I learned at least some basics about how the weather around here works, and that's been the key (and led me to lose a lot of respect for some TV weathermen).

Venture, could I ask you to elaborate some on what you were talking about re a Gulf disturbance?

Roadhawg
05-31-2011, 10:00 AM
No, Venture. Leave things boring. Boring is good.

After spending the weekend in Joplin helping with the cleanup I agree boring is good.

venture
05-31-2011, 10:09 AM
Venture, could I ask you to elaborate some on what you were talking about re a Gulf disturbance?

Any indication of a tropical system developing fell off the maps except for maybe something 5-7 days out. Nothing to really get excited about now. Just an indication of a low forming in the Caribbean that move track north. The previous one I was referring too isn't even showing up now.

Thunder
05-31-2011, 05:47 PM
Bidding farewell to the month of May and to this thread only having 15 pages.

Thunder
05-31-2011, 06:06 PM
His message...


For the music people, there is no charge, but the music must be approved. Tell them to come by on weekend to drop off demo, if interested. Knowing crowd, rock, country, classics, and maybe newer stuff, but nothing with a heavy beat or requiring lots of volume. We have neighbors to consider.

Just a friendly music atmosphere confining to the events.

venture
05-31-2011, 09:46 PM
Bidding farewell to the month of May and to this thread only having 15 pages.

This has actually been one of our more active monthly threads. So 15 pages is nothing to sniff at. :-)

jn1780
05-31-2011, 10:05 PM
This has actually been one of our more active monthly threads. So 15 pages is nothing to sniff at. :-)

I guess its time to start the summer thread. June: hot, July:hot, August: still hot. Maybe some rain in early June/ late August unless we hit the tropical storm lottery.

venture
05-31-2011, 10:08 PM
I guess its time to start the summer thread. June: hot, July:hot, August: still hot. Maybe some rain in early June/ late August unless we hit the tropical storm lottery.

Already going. :-) http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=25932

Yeah...we need to hope for some tropical help I have a feeling or the fall/winter fire season could get really ugly.

Thunder
06-01-2011, 12:33 AM
I just found my misplace post a couple of posts ago. LOL!!!

Well, yeah Venture, but it depend on how we all look at it. I can only remember one or two tornado days. For me, its real inactive. I only seen Oklahoma County lit up in red one time. lol