you forgot "debris ball".
d'oh! good one!


nice. you mind if I share that?
thanks! it was made to share!

-M

It worries me that we have so many places of work here in Oklahoma that have such poor places to take shelter from tornadoes.

This is an issue that we may need to look at as a state and strengthen some of our safety construction codes?

And I can tell you one of the worst is up here near Bartlesville, the great conglomerate of Walmart and one of its distribution centers who keeps the order filling going nearly no matter what. That place is going to ruin alot of lives one of these days with as many nuts and bolts missing from the shelving and as badly as the roof has leaked from day one. It will go out like a box of dropped toothpicks.

I do have a small complaint. On the way home from work I'm listening to both Gary England and Rick Mitchell (switching back and forth). They both had the tornado pegged down to the point where they were saying cross streets it was at. Then all of a sudden we get interrupted on all stations by the national weather service. First we have to listen to this annoying beep/noise for about 30 seconds (in which time the tornado could have turned and we would be hearing about it if we were still getting our weather guys) and then we get the robotic voice giving us some vague warning about a tornado that might be in the area. Duh. 30 seconds ago I could have told them exactly where the thing was. With the detailed information we were getting from the weather guys, I just didn't see the need for that interruption.

I believe that's part of the emergency alert system and can't be stopped because its all automated. Its law for the tv and radio stations to be connected to the emergency alert system so in order for them to not sound the alert an exception would have to be made for weather events.

Permission granted for this post.

Natalie of Norman is gathering donations (clothes, baby items, nonperishable food, etc) for the people of Joplin, Missouri. She had already rented a uHaul truck and filling it up now. The trip will be done on Saturday. She started this mission before today's tornadoes, so she is content on helping those families in Joplin.

natijamison@yahoo.com

Email her to arrange to deliver and/or pick up items. She have been posting on the KOCO LW motivating people to join together to help those in need. If you live too far from her, maybe shipping can be arranged with speedy delivery to reach her before Saturday.

From Guthrie Animals Shelters Facebook page~The Guthrie Animal Shelter was tragically destroyed during these storms and many animals now need a home. 63 animals were housed in the Animal Shelter when the storms hit. All but 4 animals are accounted for and there are no known casualties. These animals suffered a great tragedy and are in need of your help. We ask that anyone capable of adopting one of these animals in need please contact the Guthrie Police Department at 405-282-3535 or 405-226-0571. Volunteers and donations are appreciated.

Dont have a lot of time this evening after an extremely busy day.

Friday & Saturday look like slight risk days, but strong cap and not that great upper level winds.

Will do a recap on the tornadoes tomorrow.

The clustering and merging of the storms was the saving grace. Too many cells formed too close together. If there was less cells, I wouldn't know how we would have survive. So, overall, a very lucky day compared to other events.

Thunder, it certainly could have been worse but keep in mind that there were deaths in Oklahoma today. Their families probably don't think that the clustering and merging made much difference.

KOCO got amazing footage yesterday. Did anyone else see the tornado hit that semi? Crazy stuff.

http://www.koco.com/video/28014443/detail.html

Thunder, it certainly could have been worse but keep in mind that there were deaths in Oklahoma today. Their families probably don't think that the clustering and merging made much difference.

Our T & Ps are with those families. I'll admit that I personally felt a sense of relief when certain cells merged because some of the more southern ones were strengthening and heading my way. Once they merged and reformed, they veered north - to the horror of other families, sadly. I am just happy they didn't hit places as dense as in Joplin. Very rough situation.

Our T & Ps are with those families. I'll admit that I personally felt a sense of relief when certain cells merged because some of the more southern ones were strengthening and heading my way. Once they merged and reformed, they veered north - to the horror of other families, sadly. I am just happy they didn't hit places as dense as in Joplin. Very rough situation.

I agree.... could have been a lot worse.

http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_Wire_Oklahoma_Severe_Weather_May_23

Sky 5 just went up. They will be showing the aerial damages.

Here are the prelim reports of all the tornadoes yesterday. Surveys are under way.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM TORNADO 4 W LOOKEBA 35.36N 98.44W
05/24/2011 CADDO OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0348 PM TORNADO 2 SW FAIRVIEW 36.25N 98.51W
05/24/2011 MAJOR OK NWS EMPLOYEE

THIS TORNADO LASTED APPROXIMATELY 3 MINUTES TO 351 PM.

0410 PM TORNADO 4 SSW CALUMET 35.55N 98.15W
05/24/2011 CANADIAN OK STORM CHASER

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG INTERSTATE 40.

0438 PM TORNADO 3 N EL RENO 35.58N 97.95W
05/24/2011 CANADIAN OK BROADCAST MEDIA

HOMES DAMAGED.

0452 PM TORNADO 3 N PIEDMONT 35.69N 97.75W
05/24/2011 CANADIAN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HOMES DAMAGED.

0502 PM TORNADO 5 SSE CASHION 35.74N 97.64W
05/24/2011 LOGAN OK EMERGENCY MNGR

40 HOMES DAMAGED IN THE SOUTHWEST LOGAN COUNTY.

0510 PM TORNADO CHICKASHA 35.04N 97.95W
05/24/2011 GRADY OK NWS EMPLOYEE

HOMES DAMAGED AND MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED IN CHICKASHA.

0531 PM TORNADO 1 N GUTHRIE 35.89N 97.43W
05/24/2011 LOGAN OK STORM CHASER

0542 PM TORNADO 3 WSW NEWCASTLE 35.23N 97.65W
05/24/2011 MCCLAIN OK NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE ALONG SH-76 NORTH OF NORMAN TURNPIKE SPUR.

0552 PM TORNADO 4 N CRINER 35.03N 97.57W
05/24/2011 MCCLAIN OK STORM CHASER

HOMES DAMAGED.

0636 PM TORNADO 3 WNW SHAWNEE RESERVOIR 35.37N 97.12W
05/24/2011 POTTAWATOMIE OK NWS EMPLOYEE

THIS TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING INTERSTATE 40
NEAR MCLOUD OVERTURNING A SEMI TRUCK. THE TORNADO
DISSIPATED AT AROUND 639 PM.

The tornado that went by Guthrie went on to hit rural south and southwest Stillwater. At least 4 homes destroyed and up to 15 damaged. A number of electrical trucks have been in the area to repair downed power lines and poles. The tornado was believed to be F-1. Much of the damage was in the S. Western and W. 56th area and further to the west.

I honestly don't understand the folks who got caught up in the twister in their vehicles on the interstate. I mean, honestly, if the sky is freakin black, then that's your clue to turn on the radio and check the weather.

Kansas City under attack by multiple large and violent tornadoes.

http://www.kmbc.com/video/28009450/detail.html

http://livewire.kmbc.com/Event/Wednesday_Severe_Weather_Outbreak

I honestly don't understand the folks who got caught up in the twister in their vehicles on the interstate. I mean, honestly, if the sky is freakin black, then that's your clue to turn on the radio and check the weather.

It really went up very, very fast. It even caught some of the spotters/chasers by surprise in some places.

The tornado itself, but there was already a severe t-storm warning. I would not drive into a severe t-storm - high winds, possible debris and hail damage to my vehicle. Pull off the road and let it pass.

The tornado itself, but there was already a severe t-storm warning. I would not drive into a severe t-storm - high winds, possible debris and hail damage to my vehicle. Pull off the road and let it pass.

I dunno. Like I said, it happened super fast so that all the things you described didn't happen for very long before people found themselves in a bad way in the path of a very large tornado. For many, I am sure they thought the smarter move was to try to get out of the way rather than pull over, perhaps just waiting for it to hit them. They may not have realized where the tornado was and were just trying to get west/behind it. From what I saw, all the things you described on I-40 weren't taking place - until practically when the tornado appeared - and it was a big one.

I believe that's part of the emergency alert system and can't be stopped because its all automated. Its law for the tv and radio stations to be connected to the emergency alert system so in order for them to not sound the alert an exception would have to be made for weather events.

sounds pretty much like how most of the government works

Forecasts, TV and luck eased tornado risk in Okla. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_midwest_severe_weather)


The people of Oklahoma City, which has been struck by more tornadoes than any other U.S. city, knew the storms were coming. Anxiety was perhaps running higher than usual after last month's twister outbreak in the South that killed more than 300 people and a Sunday storm that killed at least 122 in Joplin, Mo.

Is this true?

Forecasts, TV and luck eased tornado risk in Okla. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_midwest_severe_weather)

Is this true?

For me it was.

Yes, OKC has the largest land mass and the record reflect that tornadoes hit OKC the most since record-keeping began. This does not mean just downtown, inner core, etc...no. I do not know how to properly explain it, but Venture will be able to do it quite expertly. OKC can be somewhere out of "nowhere" with just plain ole land/pastures and be touched by a tornado.

Yes, you know it to be true that anxiety was extremely high since it was obvious that the country has been struck severely all (or most) in the wrong places. Today was another prime example of that.

First survey ratings.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS TO DATE FOR 7 CONFIRMED TORNADOES...

NOTE: DAMAGE TEAMS REMAIN IN THE AFFECTED AREAS AND ARE STILL
CONDUCTING FINAL ASSESSMENTS. THE THREE TORNADOES RATED AT LEAST
EF-3 BELOW MAY BE RATED HIGHER... PENDING FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
MORE TORNADO EVENTS MAY BE ADDED LATER IF ANALYSIS DETERMINES THERE
ARE OTHER SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM. AT LEAST ONE
TORNADO OCCURRED WITH THESE STORMS IN JOHNSTON COUNTY. OTHERS
MAY BE ADDED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS GATHERED.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 315 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 343 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/7
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 4... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN|
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN|
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.


STORM 7... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 730 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 745 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
450 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...FRANKLIN COUNTY TORNADO RATED EF-3...

A SURVEY TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS
PRELIMINARILY RATED TODAYS TORNADO IN FRANKLIN COUNTY ARKANSAS AN
EF-3. THIS RATING IS PRELIMINARY AS THE ENTIRE TRACK HAS YET TO BE
SURVEYED.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 1.8 MILES SOUTH OF BRANCH ARKANSAS AND
TRAVELED NORTHEAST...THROUGH DENNING...AND ON INTO JOHNSON COUNTY
ARKANSAS. ALL THE DIMENSIONS OF THE TRACK HAVE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT IT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR ONE MILE WIDE AT
TIMES.

MORE INFORMATION WILL BE RELEASED AS WE COMPILE IT.

National Coverage:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/43159589#43174481

I am amazed at the subtitle provided. :-O

Slight Risk for Friday for all of Central and Eastern OK.

...S CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...
BENEATH MODEST AND DIFLUENT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING EAST OF
A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS MAY YIELD MODERATE CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU /ROCKIES. MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR...AND COULD BE
WEAK...BUT STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION NEAR A 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS. IT
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED...INITIATING PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROBABLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

http://godhates***s.com/fliers/20110526_WBC-Will-Picket-Beast-In-Joplin.pdf

Just came across this. :-(

As for Venture's post above on Friday.

http://imageshack.us/m/850/370/day2.gif

http://godhates***s.com/fliers/20110526_WBC-Will-Picket-Beast-In-Joplin.pdf

Just came across this. :-(

Ignore them... they're a waste of oxygen

Venture, when will you be comming out with your extended forcasts again?

i got bored so i made this... -M
880

Gary England Drinking Game (http://www.okstorms.com/chasing/other_weather/drinking_game.htm)

Latest update.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO WRN
AR AND SWRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S...AS A STRONG UPPER JET PROGRESSES INLAND. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS VALLEY...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE PACIFIC UPPER JET NOSES EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.

DOWNSTREAM...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE REMNANT UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN STATES SPLITTING ON FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED NRN PORTION LIFTING NEWD WITHIN STRONGER FLOW
AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. WITHIN A WEAKER FLOW REGIME...THE SRN PORTION IS FORECAST TO
TURN SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...S CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES /5 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
THREAT AREA. BENEATH MODEST AND DIFLUENT WEST NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW...SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED EAST
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT... ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE CAPE
/MLCAPE 1000-2000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND COULD BE WEAK...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION NEAR A 30-50 KT SLY LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND THE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE WARM EML/CAP OVER THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THIS
POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED...
INITIATING PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK...
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/9588/fxcfriday.jpg

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/8518/day2otlk1730.gif

It won't be an outbreak or anything bad like previously, but the potential is there for a supercell or two capable of tornadic development. Just another May day to watch out for if anything do develop and head your way.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1244 am cdt fri may 27 2011

valid 271200z - 281200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms portions srn plains to ozarks
region...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms portions central new england to
interior mid-atlantic region...

...synopsis...
Progressive upper-air pattern fcst to continue through
period...dominated by stg/nearly zonal jet now extending from nrn
ca/srn ore region ewd to central rockies. This narrow but intense
jet core -- analyzed near 145 kt on 27/00z 250-mb chart -- will
spread ewd across nrn plains to mn/ia border region by end of
period...while bending into slgt cyclonic curvature and maintaining
130-145 kt peak speeds. As this occurs...mid-upper low now over
nwrn mt is fcst to move slowly ewd toward nern corner mt...while
another 500-mb low forms offshore ore. Leading/low-amplitude
shortwave trough -- now evident in moisture channel imagery over wy
-- is expected to cross ern sd/nern neb around 28/00z then upper ms
valley by end of period.

By 28/00z...currently stg shortwave trough over srn
ont/oh/indiana/ky/tn will weaken and move newd across central
appalachians and ern oh/pa. During 28/00z-28/12z time frame...this
trough should eject nnewd and deamplify so rapidly that some areas
of interior mid-atlantic will experience net height rises as trough
apchs. Meanwhile cyclonic nly-nwly flow aloft will develop around
back side of ewd-moving trough that may evolve into broad but weak
cyclone offshore fl/ga day-2.

At sfc...quasistationary frontal zone from nrn maine wswwd across
nwrn ny will weaken gradually. Synoptic-scale frontolysis also is
fcst over central/srn appalachian region as troughing aloft
weakens...and baroclinic zone now over upper oh valley and tn valley
loses definition. Wrn segment of that baroclinic zone will
move/redevelop nwd across srn plains and strengthen again through
28/06z...e of cyclogenesis occurring in cds/lts region. By end of
period...expect sfc low over swrn ok or sern tx panhandle...with
warm front newd across ern ozarks region.

...srn plains to ozarks region...
Dryline fcst to sharpen throughout period just w of i-35 over ok and
tx...as vigorous moisture advection occurs in return flow regime to
its e. Dew points should rise into mid-60s nwd across much of
central/ern ok...combining with stg sfc heating and 7-8 deg c/km
midlevel lapse rates to support mlcape 2500-3000 k/kg. Isolated
tstm formation is possible late afternoon invof dryline...in
kinematic environment favorable for supercells with 200-350 j/kg 0-3
km srh and 45-55 kt effective shear. Attm hail is greatest
concern...with stg/damaging gusts possible. Any sustained/afternoon
supercell that can develop would pose threat of significant/damaging
hail along with svr downdrafts. However...concerns about strong
capping...lack of appreciable mid-upper perturbations...and limited
convective initiation/coverage...preclude enough unconditional
threat to draw 10% significant-hail line. Tornado potential would
be more dependent on short-lived/storm-scale processes...and as
such...also appears mrgl/conditional attm.

Hail risk will increase after dark from portions ks/nrn ok ewd
across ozarks. Low-level waa regime n of sfc warm front..within
which low-level moisture will be increasing steadily...should
support both favorable elevated mucape up to 2500 j/kg and
isentropic lift to lfc. Fcst soundings for parcels rising from
around 850 mb suggest 50-70 kt effective shear possible over
central-sern ks and adjacent parts of nern ok and swrn mo in support
of this threat. Buoyancy will diminish with nwd and ewd extent.

No real change to the afternoon forecast today.

Short term RUC and HRRR models continue to show one or two supercells popping up in Central OK by 6-8PM today. The exactly location of where these will form is up in the air for right now. Instability will be high today with CAPE around 3000-4000 j/kg, with increase EHI values towards the time of initiation. There is a chance nothing will form, but there has been consistency in at least 1 cell forming in the area. Main threat today will be monster hail and damaging winds, but as shear increases this evening the risk of a tornado or two is possible before 10PM. Should storms form.

The significance of May 24th is starting to show through...several of the tornadoes have had their ratings increased and may still go higher to EF-5s as the NWS continues their investigation.

Info: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20110524

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20110524/maps/fxc_Storm_Summary-3.jpg

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...UPDATED FATALITY AND INJURY INFORMATION...

NOTE: NWS CONTINUES TO ANALYZE SURVEY RESULTS. THE THREE TORNADOES
RATED AT LEAST EF-4 BELOW MAY BE RATED HIGHER... PENDING FURTHER
INVESTIGATION. MORE TORNADO EVENTS MAY BE ADDED LATER IF ANALYSIS
DETERMINES THERE ARE OTHER SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM. AT LEAST ONE
TORNADO OCCURRED WITH THESE STORMS IN JOHNSTON COUNTY. OTHERS
MAY BE ADDED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS GATHERED.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 315 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 343 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 4... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN|
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN|
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.


STORM 7... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 730 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 745 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

^WOW- Looks as if Norman came very close to being hit by 2 major tornadoes

Norman came very close to having at least one major tornado go through the southern/eastern part of the city. You can see how that storm produced right up until just south of Norman and then didn't drop again until just outside the far eastern city limits.

Storm 3 dropped twister trash all over my neighborhood in far SW OKC - torn up clumps of insulation, wood siding, shingles, and straw from someone's wheat field.

This was a post from Aaron Tuttle from his Facebook Page, is anyone else seeing this for the Metro?

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)
High resolution computer model produces a supercell thunderstorm over the metro later this afternoon, close to 5pm. If it does develop, it could produce a significant tornado. This is not an outbreak, just 1 storm or 2 and is still highly conditional (meaning not guaranteed like the other day). You'll know if it's happening because the clouds would develop on top of us. Be ready just in case!

Watch the dryline (yellow) for eastward movement.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

I'm still thinking it will develop just to the west of the metro. Maybe to our southwest.

They better get the Livewire fired up

This was a post from Aaron Tuttle from his Facebook Page, is anyone else seeing this for the Metro?

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)
High resolution computer model produces a supercell thunderstorm over the metro later this afternoon, close to 5pm. If it does develop, it could produce a significant tornado. This is not an outbreak, just 1 storm or 2 and is still highly conditional (meaning not guaranteed like the other day). You'll know if it's happening because the clouds would develop on top of us. Be ready just in case!

HRRR was, but no longer is. RUC has a couple of sups pop up just north and east of the Metro area.

They better get the Livewire fired up

I'm getting the chat room loaded, but will be pretty busy this evening and this weekend to be present much.

Dryline bulging out southwest, but nothing is happening. No sign of any clouds trying to bubble up. Just another waiting game.


MOISTURE SURGING N FROM TX INTO OK WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF OK THIS AFTERNOON...BASED AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FT.
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...THEY WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MAY BE
SEVERE. FOR TAFS...MAINLY INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A CB
LAYER...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE IN NW OK THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF W OK
TOMORROW. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/NW OF THIS FRONT.

Norman came very close to having at least one major tornado go through the southern/eastern part of the city. You can see how that storm produced right up until just south of Norman and then didn't drop again until just outside the far eastern city limits.


At about 12 to 15 miles out Tornado #3 was headed right to my area of Norman before it turned left and dissipated. G. England and Morgan were naming off major streets in my area
As this was happing I was hoping that storm #4 would rob enough energy from #3 that it would turn left and dissipate. That appears to have happened, but I could be wrong. I believe this is what happened during the 5/3 /99 tornado as it left the Moore area. But again I could be wrong.

For the next several days.


.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK. IN THE SHORTER TERM...A COLD
FRONT WILL BOB BACK AND FORTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IT
WILL BE QUITE HOT OVER OUR TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS DO NOT QUITE GET TOGETHER OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WHILE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH RED FLAG LEVELS.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETUP RESULTS IN VERY
WARM/HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES...AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20
PERCENT THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0997.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PTNS SCNTRL OK...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272022Z - 272215Z

THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK SFC LOW JUST E OF CDS WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE/RADAR AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATED ONE DRYLINE FROM THE LOW ARCS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OK AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO NW/NCNTRL TX. A SECONDARY
DRYLINE NOTED IN CLEAR AIR RADAR DATA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TX
PNHDL AND WILL BE INTERSECTING THE EASTERN DRYLINE BOUNDARY ADDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING ABOUT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...2200 TO 0000
UTC.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG AND WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND INCREASED FORCING NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG WITH PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH
THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS.

There are some isolated storms trying to fire up north of the metro. Nothing down to our southwest yet.

We are sad to report that nothing came out of yesterday.

Slight risk today for northern part of the state.

Slight chance of rain anywhere for the next few days.

Lets hope we get back into active pattern for June to lessen the extreme heat days later on for summer.

Seriously ???? You want more active weather ??? Has this years death and destruction not been enough for you ??? I'd rather deal with 100 + temps, than keep dodging ef4 or ef5 tornadoes !!! Seriously !!

Seriously ???? You want more active weather ??? Has this years death and destruction not been enough for you ??? I'd rather deal with 100 + temps, than keep dodging ef4 or ef5 tornadoes !!! Seriously !!

Active weather as in rain, some lightning show, maybe a touch of wind here and there, but nothing serious. I dunno why you would automatically assume active weather should involve tornadoes. Although, tornadoes are awesome in open fields. I'd prefer rain more often than extreme heat days.

So looking long range...eh. Couple opportunities for some severe storms the next few days and then things shut down. Highest probabilities are going to be NW OK. Today instability will be extreme across most of OK, but the cap is firmly in place and nothing around to break it.

The overall pattern shifts to the typical thermonuclear ridge of death that will last for the foreseeable future. Temps across most of the central US will heat up. We'll probably head well into the 90s and 100s and remain bone dry. So we are in a mostly moderate to low drought in Central OK now, but expect that to change pretty quickly. Western OK is still extreme to exceptional with no real relief.

At this point we'll have to wait until we get into the northwest flow to get the storm complexes out of Colorado to really get much relief. Then of course there is always the chance for some tropical activity at some point this summer.

So begins the gross and boring part of the year. :)

So begins the gross and boring part of the year. :)

Yeah!!!!!

Tonight's GFS gives us some hope for rain the next couple of weeks now. We'll see what happens.

Slight risk of severe weather Sunday and Monday out west along the dryline. This will creep into central areas on Tuesday. Then some chances later in the week or next weekend.

Also need to watch the tropics in the next couple of weeks for a possible system coming up through the Gulf. Way far out, but some things to hope for to keep the summer heat and drought conditions under control.

At this point we'll have to wait until we get into the northwest flow to get the storm complexes out of Colorado to really get much relief. Then of course there is always the chance for some tropical activity at some point this summer.

So begins the gross and boring part of the year. :) Not so quick with getting bored. We gotta June, especially the first half of it, out of the way before starting to feel safe from tornados.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1016.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292010Z - 292145Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS INITIATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ON SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
TOWERING CUMULUS. THE TCU IS DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL BE A FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE FIRST CELL
INITIATION BUT STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO
CNTRL KS. AS STORMS DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL PRO FILERS WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ANY
STORM THAT CAN INITIATE BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACH
50 DEGREES F IN MANY LOCATIONS.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

Storms are firing up right now along the dryline mainly in far NW OK into the TX PH.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0396_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF GAGE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...

DISCUSSION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG DRY LINE COUPLED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE E WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WITH DCAPES ABOVE 1500
J/KG AND 40KT CELL MOVEMENT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE NWD TO NEB
BORDER.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21040.

Slight hope way southwest for any rain to come our way overnight.

Actually the chance for rain will be coming form the Northwest along the cold front dropping down. May not get very far south though.