I'll get flamed for this, but I don't care...this is as exciting as getting clothes for Christmas.

What dark gods must I appease for tornadoes to return to central OK?

Pocket handkerchiefs and socks from now on for you, buddy.

Good dose of rain across the area...Radar estimate storm totals.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/save/str.png

Severe threat moves to eastern OK/western AR tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if the same thing happens or if more discrete storms develop along the dryline in the afternoon.

Edmond got HAMMERED.

So sorry to disappoint Uncle and Thunder (not). There was a little wind damage in places but no houses destroyed or people killed. It was almost a best case scenario with a lot of welcome rain.

So sorry to disappoint Uncle and Thunder (not). There was a little wind damage in places but no houses destroyed or people killed. It was almost a best case scenario with a lot of welcome rain.

We need a like button here so I could "like" this. Even though it made driving on the highway a bit dicey around 4pm going toward Edmond, and there was some spectacular lightning along the way, I would rather have to squint to see in the rain than hide in my laundry room.

I laughed when David said on his chat, something like, "Poor dryline did not stand a chance.." and it was like the dryline saying, "WTF?!" :-O

Everything turned out so wrong yesterday. All the chasers and weather people...a total bust for "tornadoes outbreak" but such a welcoming for rain. It was funny, one of Mike's graphics was saying, "Not a wall of waters..." Well, most of us ended up getting much more than a wall of waters. :-)


When it rains, it pours! And for Oklahoma City, today’s heavy rain is just what we needed! Why? Becuase, this is the wettest month of the entire year and if we don’t get the rain now, then we’re up a creek. So, for the books, it’ll go down as 1.34 inches of rain received on this date, making it the biggest rainfall day that we have seen since September 12th.

-Damon

PS- Sorry Western Oklahoma…

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/damon42.jpg?w=426&h=287

http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/

I am sure western portions received plenty of rain. We will have to wait on the rain totals to be posted.

Btw, the rain report for OKC is based at the airport. Other areas probably received much more.

My flowers is dancing out there now! :-O

This is a pretty good estimate on how much rain we got yesterday. I used the 4-day graphic so the totals don't vanish for a couple of days from this map.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.96hr.png

Still very rough in far SW and the Panhandle...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0293_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...WW 291...WW 292...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. DESPITE SMALL LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO
EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

My digital rain gauge said 1.18 inches but the old fashioned one was filled just over 1.5 inches.

So it is that time again to take a look through the unreliable and foggy forecast window to see what may be coming our way. For this trip we’ll be using the 00Z GFS. Naturally all longer range dates on the GFS (some short range too) need to be taken with a gallon of salt as it is pretty volatile in its solutions.

Saturday May 14 to Tuesday May 17th
We are looking mostly dry through this period. No major amounts of precip showing up. Should be a decent period to let whatever moisture we got this past week finish soaking in and really letting the grass go wild. Finally. For those that didn’t get any here recently, sorry…more of the same. However, fire danger appears to be staying out of the Very High and Extreme categories – so that’s good, but not great for the wheat crop that needs moisture.

After this period, it looks like storm season could ramp up a bit.

Saturday May 14 to Tuesday May 17th
We are looking mostly dry through this period. No major amounts of precip showing up. Should be a decent period to let whatever moisture we got this past week finish soaking in and really letting the grass go wild. Finally. For those that didn’t get any here recently, sorry…more of the same. However, fire danger appears to be staying out of the Very High and Extreme categories – so that’s good, but not great for the wheat crop that needs moisture.

Wednesday May 18th
The deep trough we were seeing form behind the system we just had will start to move out into the plains. The ridge will be breaking down Monday & Tuesday and the first batch of energy starts to move in Wednesday morning…early. Looks like a general area of showers and a couple storms will spread over the start, increasing in coverage through the day. Amounts look like, but really shouldn’t worry about that this far out. Instability isn’t looking to be crazy at all, so this might just be a very low key chance of rain across the state.

Thursday May 19th
Dryline should be formed up pretty well after the activity on Wednesday and will move through roughly the western 1/3rd of OK during the daylight hours on Thursday. Moisture will continue to pump in with dewpoints in mostly the mid 60s to near 70 in the south. Instability will be rising as well and we should have a decent amount around, but nothing high end. 500 mb winds are extremely strong should the main trough moving through OK with winds 60 to 75 kts. Surface to 500mb shear looks pretty good, but the strong winds over 700 mb could leave us with a lot of leaning towers and not much upward development. Severe day? Maybe…but as I have stated 83 times already, way too early to say. Considering how well the May 11th activity shaped up and how well the models handled that day, nothing is written in stone. We’ll just put it down as a “one to watch” day. Which really means very little.

Friday May 20th
Looks like the system will be wrapping up pretty good in the Central Plains. The surface low looks like it will move almost northerly as it just wraps up. Instability forecast is somewhat misleading showing some decent values over the eastern half of the state, but very little precip. Not really expecting much in Oklahoma, except early morning storms racing east, but the model kinda hints at some sort of low in OK that could be wrapping some precip back into the state…or at least some type of feature. Not sure, but something just sticks out a bit that I want to see how this day evolves. May be nothing, or it may just be that stupid “Friday” song stuck in my head as I write this.

Saturday May 21st
The dreaded “along and east of I-35″ line has to be used here. Looks like most rain/storm chances will be eastern 1/2 of Oklahoma. We’ll probably have a boundary or front of some sort in the state at the time. Dryline doesn’t look all that well defined this far out. Instability is definitely there, so another day that is a one to watch.

For the period following the 21st, you can read the full outlook on my blog on Storm-Scope.com (http://www.storm-scope.com) at: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=46

GFS and NAM aren't too far apart this evening, but they only go out together until Thursday. After that is it mostly GFS and what little ECMWF data we have. Had outlook maps all made up, but the mapper software apparently wasn't saving them when I thought it was. So they are gone. LOL Needless to say the forecast is pretty simple, but each day's activity can impact the next. Basically we are looking at an extended period of unsettled weather (YAY RAIN!). Look for it to start on Wednesday and last until the middle of next week. Main threat area for strong storms will be ahead of the dryline which will be dancing back and forth mainly well west of I-35. Each day start Thursday looks like a chance for a storm to reach severe levels. Not every day will have severe storms. Just like some days may have an enhanced risk of severe weather (Sunday).

As we get closer I'll start getting more details in outlooks and such. Remember you can follow the updates here but also on http://www.storm-scope.com where I'll go a bit more indepth and continue to post updated links to great resources.

New blog post is up that goes into the upcoming outlook for severe weather through this week and most of next.

http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=50

Sunday continues to look interesting.

The Storm Prediction Center has put out their new Day 3 and Day 4-8 Outlooks and have included most of Oklahoma in a risk for severe weather. Much like discussed earlier this morning, the severe threat is going to be on the increase. They have trended much slower with the system for Friday, and have the risk area more to the west than I did in mine last night. As always, I would take their outlooks more seriously than mine.

Details today in the blog: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=52

I bookmarked your new site. I kinda gave up for any exciting Tornado season for this year, so I haven't kept track since our last major bust, although we did receive really nice rain.

Two reasons I really like tornadoes, they are awesome when watching them form and they are awesome to clean up the cities. Although financial, property, and life losses are really bad/sad, which I hate, but always look at the positive side of Mother Nature helping to clean up when our city leaders, business owners, land owners, and landlords failing to do so.

I bookmarked your new site. I kinda gave up for any exciting Tornado season for this year, so I haven't kept track since our last major bust, although we did receive really nice rain.

Thanks for the follow. Not sure how much more exciting you want it. We set a record for most tornadoes ever in the month of April with 47. We are sitting at 48 overall with a seasonal average around 54. May is our historical peak and it looks like a busy end of this week and next right now. June still averages 8 in the state then quieting down for the rest of year with around 2 tornadoes a month. October can get busy again, so we'll wait until then.

Slight Risk is up for west of I-35 tomorrow. Roughly the same area on Thursday. Friday should move out across most of Central & Eastern OK. Sunday is still looking like a potential big day if we don't run into the issue of left over morning convection. Then also risk is there Monday, Tuesday, Weds (mainly SE OK), Thursday, and Friday...yeah - welcome to Spring.

Venture - what do you think of Friday's setup? It's looking like a potential bust with morning convection the culprit once again.

Venture - what do you think of Friday's setup? It's looking like a potential bust with morning convection the culprit once again.

I'm looking at it this way. There is going to be a risk of severe weather, somewhere in the state, through next week. There will always be the risk of morning convection being around to complicate the forecast. The best thing to do is just go day by day because not everyday is going to work out, but also because any left over boundaries are going to change how things actually occur regardless of what the models say.

The slight risk area for today has been shifted east drastically. It now includes the entire OKC metro area.

I will be bringing the chat room up shortly and getting the live cam and such going again on http://www.storm-scope.com.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAKS DIGGING SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL ROUND LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BASE TODAY...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 19/12Z.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE LOCATED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER W-CNTRL OK AS OF MID MORNING WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH
TIME AS PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM INTERSECTION WITH
WARM FRONT OVER NWRN OK SEWD TO JUST W OF THE OKC AREA AND THEN SWWD
INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.
LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING W OF DRYLINE AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED LEAD
IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
GIVEN FORECAST VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2...SETUP WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A
COUPLE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG BENT-BACK SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OK
INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HERE TOO...KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

Judging from the way this deck of cumulus seems to be thickening in the PM heating, and the fact that the humidity really seems to be going up, can't help but wonder if we might not see some storms here in central OK in the next few hours...

a lot of storm trackers are heading towards central part of oklahoma right now, i wonder if they know something ?

I'm looking at it this way. There is going to be a risk of severe weather, somewhere in the state, through next week. There will always be the risk of morning convection being around to complicate the forecast. The best thing to do is just go day by day because not everyday is going to work out, but also because any left over boundaries are going to change how things actually occur regardless of what the models say.

Good advice Venture. It's easy for me to get too excited or too down on a forecast that is Day 2 or further out. We'll just have to wait and see. Today didn't like it was going to be much a few days ago, and now it's looking better and better.

Judging from the way this deck of cumulus seems to be thickening in the PM heating, and the fact that the humidity really seems to be going up, can't help but wonder if we might not see some storms here in central OK in the next few hours...
Yeah, it really feels like it is starting to simmer and get punchy.

I was not aware of anything for today. I thought something for Sunday. :-/

This is funny chit, cuz I was just out there at Lowes on I-240 and now I come home to see slight risk and supercells potential. It brings back the good ole memories of May 3rd.

Yeah, it really feels like it is starting to simmer and get punchy.
+1
In the last 2 or so hours we are gradually starting to see more sun here in Norman

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0804.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...PORTIONS OF N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181944Z - 182045Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX...ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS WRN OK HAS RESULTED IN AN EWD
ADVANCEMENT OF A SFC DRYLINE...POSITIONED FROM 40 SSW SPS TO FSI TO
40 NE CSM /PER 19Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. THIS FEATURE IS ATTENDANT
TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
PROTRUDING ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN OK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED WINDS IN THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT HAVE BACKED TOWARDS
THE S /LIMITING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY AN
AREA OF IMPLIED ASCENT THAT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EWD OUT OF THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF CIRRUS HAS DEVELOPED IN
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR IMAGES. AS THIS APPROACHES WRN
OK AND NW TX...WEAKENING CINH AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE /LOWER-MID 60S SFC
DEW POINTS/ ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG
C PER KM HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR RESULTING FROM BACKED FLOW /PARTICULARLY WITH
NWD EXTENT/...ALONG WITH A FAVORED DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTOR
RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IF
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CNTRL OK HAS LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY PRIMARILY E OF I-35...WITH
SOME QUESTION REGARDING MAINTENANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OFF
THE DRYLINE.

..ROGERS.. 05/18/2011

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

TORNADO WATCH 306 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051-053-
059-067-073-075-083-085-087-093-099-109-137-141-149-151-153-
190400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0306.110518T2050Z-110519T0400Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
HARPER JEFFERSON KINGFISHER
KIOWA LOGAN LOVE
MAJOR MCCLAIN MURRAY
OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN
WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

WA****A

I know there's a language filter and all but this is always so amusing to me. It feels rather warm today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0306_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT
SILL OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER
WRN OK. AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
7 C/KM...IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. PROFILER DATA ACROSS ERN
NM SUGGEST THAT CIRRUS PLUME SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO WRN OK
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WILL SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 19/00Z WITH VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES BECOMING QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

Acus01 kwns 190522
swody1
spc ac 190520

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1220 am cdt thu may 19 2011

valid 191200z - 201200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a portion of the srn and cntrl plains...

...synopsis...

Blocking pattern will persist into thursday with closed upper lows over the intermountain west and oh valley drifting only very slowly east. A series of vorticity maxima will rotate through these features. Surface low will develop nwd trough wrn ks attended by a warm front. Dryline will mix ewd through wrn tx...wrn ok and wrn ks before once again retreating overnight. Farther east a weak occluded low and front will persist over the mid atlantic region.

...cntrl and srn plains...

Elevated storms developing in warm advection regime should be in progress from nrn ks into neb. In wake of morning storms...the atmosphere will destabilize south of advancing warm front from cntrl ks...wrn/cntrl ok into n-cntrl and ern portion of wrn tx as richer moisture advects nwd. Diabatic warming of the moistening boundary layer and 7-7.5 c/km mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 2000-2500 j/kg mlcape. Surface low will develop nwd through wrn ks as another in a series of vorticity maxima rotate through ern periphery of upper low. This zone of stronger forcing suggests storms will be more likely to initiate first near triple point over cntrl ks. More isolated activity will be possible farther s as the dryline mixes ewd through wrn ok and nwrn tx. Vertical shear from
35-45 kt will support supercells with large hail likely. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible...initially near triple point/warm front over cntrl ks where backed sely flow will result in larger 0-1 km hodographs. A small window for isolated tornadoes will also exist farther south across ok into tx during the early evening as the llj strengthens and before the boundary layer decouples.

Additional storms...likely more linear in nature...may develop late thursday night from wrn tx into wrn ok as pacific front overtakes the retreating dryline. This activity could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong wind gusts.


Day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1205 am cdt thu may 19 2011

valid 201200z - 211200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across the central and southern plains...

...plains...

Weak height falls will overspread the plains friday as mid level trough edges out of the inter-mountain west. Both the nam and gfs suggest a closed low will rotate into the nrn rockies/high plains region...mt/wy/sd...while somewhat stronger forcing ejects across the srn rockies into ks/ok/tx early in the period. In fact latest guidance suggest thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period...or develop shortly after sunset...across the srn and cntrl plains in response to ewd moving shortwave. Maritime tropical airmass has finally spread into south tx this morning and this moisture will gradually return to much of the outlook area with high pwat values...likely in excess of 1.5 inches...expected to contribute to widespread instability and clouds. For this reason diurnal heating may be somewhat limited and large scale forcing should easily enhance scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms across much of the warm sector. Convective mode and timing will prove difficult given the very moist airmass and early large scale support for convective development. At this time it appears multiple thunderstorm clusters with embedded supercells could easily evolve within a strongly sheared but likely complicated storm mode environment. If early-mid day activity evolves as models suggest then heating near the dryline may not lead to more than isolated activity in the wake of potentially significant thunderstorms or mcss.

What happened yesterday? Tornado watch issued but no storms formed. Cap too strong?

Tornado watch outline update for wt 308
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1250 pm cdt thu may 19 2011

tornado watch 308 is in effect until 800 pm cdt for the
following locations

okc003-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-
065-073-075-093-129-141-149-151-153-200100-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0308.110519t1750z-110520t0100z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

alfalfa beckham blaine
caddo canadian comanche
cotton custer dewey
ellis garfield grant
greer harmon harper
jackson kingfisher kiowa
major roger mills tillman
wa****a woods woodward
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[img]

What happened yesterday? Tornado watch issued but no storms formed. Cap too strong?

It was extremely complicated yesterday. This thread summed it up best: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?27765-Soundings-don-t-tell-the-whole-story-(5-18-11-Oklahoma-Bust)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0308_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALVA
OKLAHOMA TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 307...

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
LIKELY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN UNCAPPED
AND WARMING AIR MASS. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AND
INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21020.

Chat room is rolling right now, so updates here will be a little slow. http://www.storm-scope.com and click Live Chat. :)

Mike Morgan is scaring me. Is this storm down by Lawton coming this way?

This has probably been posted somewhere here before, but since I had to dig it up just now (Gary said mesocyclone and I couldn't remember if I needed to drink or not.... ) here it is again.

Gary England Drinking Game

Pregame
1. Everyone selects a storm chaser other than Val Caster. Every time Gary talks to your storm chaser, you take one drink. Take two drinks every time we see footage from your storm chaser. Take four drinks if your storm chaser says "tornado on the ground."

2. Everyone selects a county other than Pottawatomie County. Every time Gary mentions your county, you take one drink. Take two drinks every time we see footage from your county. Take four drinks if a tornado touches down in your county.

One drink
1. Take one drink every time Gary says the following:
"Hook echo" | "Updraft" | "Metro" | "Doppler radar" | "Wall cloud" | "Ranger 9" | "Underground" | "Mobile home"

2. When Gary gives a list of counties, take one drink for every county in the list.

3. Take one drink every time Gary interrupts a program. Take one drink if Gary says "You're not missing any of [program name]." Take one drink when Gary says "We'll keep you advised."

Two drinks
1. Take two drinks every time Gary says the following:
"Baseball-sized hail" | "Waterloo Road" | "Pottawatomie County" | "Deer Creek High School"

2. Take two drinks every time Gary mentions the following towns:
Altus | Burns Flat | Dill City | Gotebo | Hydro | Lookeba | Meeker | Mulhall | Oktaha | Olustee | Shattuck | Slaughterville | Tryon | Vici | Waukomis | Wayne (or Payne) | Weleetka | Wetumkah

3. Take two drinks every time Gary talks to Val Caster.

Three drinks
1. Take three drinks if we see footage from Val Caster.


2. Take three drinks if we see footage from Pottawatomie County.

3. Take three drinks if Gary mentions the following:
"Immediate tornado precautions" | "National Weather Service" | "Mesocyclone" | "Portable Radio" | "Take shelter" | "Tornado warning in effect until ..."

Four drinks
1. Take four drinks if Ranger 9 must land to refuel.

2. Take four drinks if Gary issues his own tornado warning, not recognized by the NWS or says the following:
"Will someone please answer that phone?" | "Do you see power flashes?"

3. Take four drinks if a shirt-less tornado victim is interviewed.

Finish your drink
1. Finish your drink if someone uses the word tornado as a verb or if Gary mentions the nearest cross streets to you.

2. If Gary says "We've lost Val," pour a little out for your homies and finish your drink.

If you were driving west at about 8 or 8:30 anywhere in the city you saw one of the most spectacular Oklahoma sunsets.... It was amazing. I'm sure there will be many pictures popping up on flickr.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1126 pm cdt thu may 19 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 1215 am cdt

* at 1126 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm over northwestern norman...4 miles south of moore...
Moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include choctaw...del city...jones...
Midwest city...moore...newalla...nicoma park...northwestern
norman...southeastern oklahoma city...spencer...stanley draper
lake...tinker air force base and valley brook.

Ww 311 severe tstm ok tx 200440z - 201100z
axis..55 statute miles east and west of line..
5nw lts/altus ok/ - 40s bgs/big spring tx/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /51ene cds - 41ese maf/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0311_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF BIG SPRING TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 310...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG RETREATING
DRYLINE AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL COOL SURGES FROM
W/NW...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER W TX WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM NM. THOUGH SOME CAP IS PRESENT...ASCENT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR
SYSTEM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG INFLOW
WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

WS 0311
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Updated the list of storm reports for 5/19 and posted them in this thread on Storm Scope: http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=9

Pretty long list, so didn't want to put it all here. Confirmation on at least 1 tornado so far.

I don't want my phone to bow out from all that info... how much rain did OKC get?

I don't want my phone to bow out from all that info... how much rain did OKC get?

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

As predicted earlier...line of storms has formed out to the west. This radar image will update every 5-10 minutes overnight.

Source: http://www.storm-scope.com/radar/nexrad3.html

Red Box - Tornado Watch | Blue Blox - Severe Tstorm Watch | Pink Outline - Tornado Warning | Orange Outline - Severe Tstorm Warning
Brown Line - General Storm Risk Area | Green Line - Day 1 Slight Risk Area | Green "H" - Severe Hail Report | Blue "W" - Severe Wind Report | Red "T" - Tornado Report

http://www.storm-scope.com/radar/br1.png

Thanks Venture!

Much needed rain for western and southwestern portions of the state. And the mega line coming thru overnight will provide much more needed rain, but also be moving on through much more quickly than the storms yesterday. Should clear out of the state later this morning. Hoping it take all the clouds with it to allow daytime heating for instability. SPC has most of the state under slight risk for later this afternoon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

^^^ Graphic may change since time of this post.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH A
PORTION OF THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN STATES AND NERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAIN AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK EARLY
FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FRONT AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ROTATING
THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OVERTAKE DRYLINE. ACTIVITY WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH WARM
SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE
WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD PERSIST AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EWD.

GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF MORNING
STORMS...BUT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE FARTHER WEST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM W-CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK AND KS. NEW STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG PACIFIC
FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX EJECTING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE
OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 40-45
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT.

...NERN STATES...

STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...POCKETS OF
DIABATIC WARMING AND MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL MLCAPE.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

Latest discussion. Sort of uncertainty/disagreement with the SPC map above.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN
A FAIRLY ROBUST NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CO/WY. MITIGATING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER W PARTS OF
OK/TX. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EXISTING
SQUALL LINE/MCS WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF NIGHT/MORNING. THERE
ALSO WILL BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BEHIND IT.
THUS THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY. STRONG SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ALOFT... MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR A WHILE... WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF GIANT
HAIL AND TORNADOES.

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH WE WILL MAKE ONLY SUPERFICIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE A RELATIVE
BREAK IN CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS ON SAT AS WE END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS... FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT W RELOADS AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND WED FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. STANDARD
INITIALIZATION ROUTINE WAS USED ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING GRIDS.

For ya'all early birds!


.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT 430 AM... THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ENID TO EL RENO TO CHICKASHA TO WALTERS
OKLAHOMA TO BURKBURNETT AND SEYMOUR TEXAS. BY 6 AM... THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING SEMINOLE... ADA AND ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA AFFECTING PONCA CITY... STILLWATER... OKLAHOMA CITY...
SHAWNEE... DUNCAN... PAULS VALLEY AND WICHITA FALLS. THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THIS LINE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

FARTHER WEST... LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


Update before I go sleep.


MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF MCS AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES E. CIGS 3-5K FT MAY LINGER IN
MANY AREAS E OF DRYLINE/COLDFRONT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY CENTRAL OK. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SHIFTING WINDS IN NW OK BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.


Hoping it all clears up by Noon thru 3pm.

Nice dose of free water continues. Looks like most of the metro area is getting anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of rain since last night.

As far as severe chances for today...latest HRRR is keep the state dry after this initial line through 7PM. RUC attempts to develop something around South Central OK by late afternoon, but doesn't keep it around long. So pretty routine today that things should remain quiet unless we get significant clearing and heating today before the front moves in.

Severe Risk continues next 4 days in the state...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SW SD CLOSED LOW SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING NE
SD BY 12Z SUN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE E/NE ALONG ITS SRN
AND ERN SIDES. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/TROUGHS WILL
PINWHEEL AROUND A SFC LOW OVER SD THAT SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY E IN
TANDEM WITH UPR LOW. THE MOST IMPORTANT BOUNDARY FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE THAT SHOULD ADVANCE
SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS...OK...AND NE TX TODAY
...BEFORE RETREATING WWD ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NE...A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE/REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE UPR MS AND UPR
GRT LKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE LWR MO/MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
LOW LVL ASCENT/RICH MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD POOL
LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCS THAT WEAKENED OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS
VLY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED EWD ADVECTION OF MID LVL
EML...MAY FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER E TX AND LA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /PW AOA 1.75 INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S F/ AND MODERATE SFC HEATING...SOME CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR
THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST AND BECOME SFC-BASED THIS AFTN. WERE THIS
TO OCCUR...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO
ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS. THESE COULD BUILD SWWD ALONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT/SFC TROUGH INTO CNTRL TX BY LATER IN THE DAY.

N OF THIS ACTIVITY...SOMEWHAT WEAKER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
SPREAD MID TO UPR 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD INTO ERN THIRD OF OK...AND
NEWD INTO SE MO AND THE LWR OH/LWR TN VLYS. COMBINATION OF ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPR IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD FROM WRN KS WITH STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16C/ AND STRONG SFC
HEATING SHOULD FOSTER SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ARC ALONG SFC
FRONT/TROUGH FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB SWD INTO ERN KS AND ERN OK BY MID TO
LATE AFTN. SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OK AND KS...WILL BE
SUPERCELLS. WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN NEB TO
GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG IN OK...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
EVE OVER ERN OK AND KS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS THAT SPREAD A THREAT ISOLD DMGG WIND AND
HAIL E OR ENE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER E AND NE...A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN IN
ZONE OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW AND SFC HEATING FROM
ERN AR AND PERHAPS ERN MO E/NE INTO PARTS OF IL/IND AND PERHAPS WRN
KY/TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AUGMENTED BY SRN PART OF
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLNS... AND COULD
CONTAIN BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY OVER A BROAD AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS DIG INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. NEAR THE BASE OF THE POLAR
TROUGH...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS PROGGED AS IT NOSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FARTHER
EAST...LOWER/MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A REMNANT CLOSED LOW MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING MORE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY OVER A RATHER
BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AN INFLUX OF MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR...IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-4000 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR...BENEATH A COUPLE OF BROAD BELTS OF 30-50 KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.

...LWR OH/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FIRST...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MID DAY...FROM PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...PERHAPS A REMNANT
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION OR TWO...ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SEVERAL SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY OCCUR
BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...TRACKING EASTWARD AND GENERATING SWATHS
OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
AS A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH THE REMNANT UPPER LOW INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A
WEAK SOUTHWARD TRAILING SURFACE FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUNDAY. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH A
BELT OF ENHANCED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
UPPER LOW...COULD YIELD FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

A DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT REGIME NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAK PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE STORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED
RIVER VALLEY REGION. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...BUT MORE MODEST
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BEGINS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION...WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LINGERING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL PERHAPS
THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
SIGNIFICANT PRECEDING IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM ADVECTION ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
BENEATH WARM AND STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
2000-3000+ J/KG IS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS
IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS. ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL ADVECT EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH PRIMARY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY...

VARIABILITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BECOMES
QUITE LARGE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION...BOTH ON THE SMALLER AND LARGER
SCALES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...WILL ACCELERATE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE A PREVAILING MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS... INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...APPEARS TO EXIST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.

Looks like storms will form along the I-35 corridor later today and some will likely be severe. It will be interesting to see just where the dryline parks and storms fire.

Slight Risk on Day 2 is backed further to the west now to include most of the OKC metro area. As I've been saying for almost a week or so now...tomorrow has been one to watch. GFS has traditionally had Central OK in the area of highest instability for tomorrow, and hasn't really swayed much. NAM has met up with it and they now have Central & Eastern OK with fairly decent instability. SPC's day 2 is discussing upgrading to moderate when the Day 1 comes out at 1AM.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE OH...TN AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD
INTO NWRN MO/S CENTRAL KS. A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD NOT MIX
AS FAR EAST ON SUNDAY AS TODAY... DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SWRN U.S. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A ICT-FSI-ABI LINE AT
LATE AFTERNOON. AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS INCLUDED ON
THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY GIVEN AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.

...TX/OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/AR/NWRN LA..
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LOWER 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. WHILE STRONG FORCING
IS NOT FORESEEN...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FORMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...SO A SIGNIFICANT AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PROBABILITIES.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK LATER IN THE DAY...IN
RESPONSE TO SWRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT THAT GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...PORTIONS OF AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE
RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AN MCS OR TWO LIKELY WILL EVOLVE FROM THESE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
AND TRACK EWD INTO MO/AR/ERN TX/NWRN LA WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

They pushed the slight risk area further west for tomorrow. Were now in the higher end of the slight risk (10% tornado,30% hail, and 15% wind).

They pushed the slight risk area further west for tomorrow. Were now in the higher end of the slight risk (10% tornado,30% hail, and 15% wind).

I vote for wind.

So going to get kinda serious now about today, Sunday the 22nd. I've been pimping this day out since the 14th that it could be a medium to high end severe weather day. GFS has stuck to its guns for what...8 days straight now. NAM came into line tonight. So what do we have.

Things to watch - 1) Dryline placement. 2) Cap strength. Both of these will be key factors tomorrow. This evening the dryline has backed into western OK extending from Cherokee to Fairview to Weatherford to Mangum. It will probably settle a bit more to the west before daylight. It will then start to move east during the day. Here is the tricky part. GFS and NAM bring it into the OKC Metro area by 6-7PM. However, other short term guidance models (namely the SPC/NSSL model runs and HRRR) accelerate the dryline east past the OKC area by early afternoon. This would take with it the main risk for storms tomorrow. The other issue is going to be cap strength. Forecast soundings have it roughly around a 3, which is pretty tough but not unbreakable. We are going to have some fog tonight with a tone of moisture out there, so the sooner we can get sunshine the more favorable it will be to break the cap.

The models do give their preference on where storms will start, but coverage will be spotty and it really just depends on the dryline position. With the increased moisture out there, the greening up we've done in the last week, and looking at today as an example - it will be rough for the dryline to really push east too far. Today it got right up into the OKC area around 3PM but went back west extremely fast after 6PM. We will just have to wait and see. The main threat area tomorrow will be roughly 20-30 miles east of the dryline location (based on typical initiation point and how far storms will go until getting severe).

So let's look at the conditions, as an average, across the OKC area. I won't focus on specifics for one point because if the dryline is sitting right on I-44 tomorrow...NW OKC will be one thing, Midwest City could be another. So moisture availability looks good tomorrow. Deep moisture, dewpoints in the high 60s and low 70s look likely. MLCAPE across the area will range from 2500 up to 5000 j/kg tomorrow...so plenty of instability. CINH will be relatively high through early afternoon and then fade away...but not completely. Helicity values look solid. Forecast sounding looks good. Almost a due west wind from 500 mb and up, with backing winds at the surface that will be SE to S ahead of the dryline. Additional indices on the sounding look favorable for high end severe weather...strong shear and a moderate cap could make for an interesting day.

So here is the official SPC outlook, which will change through the day. Remember, if you are east of the dryline - you need to be very aware to weather tomorrow. The tornadic probabilities for tomorrow do have a wide around 10%, and this is a hatched area so strong tornadoes are possible. Damaging hail will also be possible - again a hatched area there. Wind is going to be a lesser threat.

The slight risk is along and east of a line from Ponca City to Kingfisher to Frederick. The 10% Hatched tornado risk is along and east of a line from 20 miles East of Ponca City to near Perry to El Reno to Anadarko to Lawton to Waurika.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES ...AND OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WRN U.S. COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. ATTENDANT FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD THROUGH THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND ERN KS. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

...SRN PLAINS...

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS IN PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND WILL LIKELY ADVECT FARTHER NWD INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO. THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF CAP ATTENDING THE EML COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD ESPECIALLY FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK INTO SERN KS WHICH WILL RESIDE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WITH HIGH VALUES OF NORMALIZED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING AS SRN BRANCH OF LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE STORM COVERAGE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

Dryline is crawling east a bit at this time. The southern section is moving faster at this point to give it a more North-South orientation. You can view its location here:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

Areas of Northeast OK through the Western Great Lakes were upgraded to moderate this morning, and that was continued in the new Day 1 just issued. Coverage is expected to be less further south and west so we remain in the slight, but conditions are such that if anything goes up it is going to be severe, with extremely large hail, and potential for strong tornadoes.


...SRN PLAINS...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG.
GIVEN THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE LOCATION AND EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.

DRYLINE LOCATED FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX AS OF MID MORNING WILL MIX MOST RAPIDLY EWD TODAY ACROSS NRN HALF OF OK WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO W-CNTRL TX BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN OK NEWD INTO MO WHERE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING W OF DRYLINE AND A BREAKABLE CAP /SEE 12Z FWD SOUNDING/...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEPER PBL MIXING MAY LEAD TO DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT THIS AFTERNOON...LARGELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX. WHILE THIS MAY TEMPER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG.
WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE IN THE 23/00-03Z TIME PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

Chat room is still going, but I won't be in it all day until something pops near us.

Tornado Watch being issued shortly.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0851.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221742Z - 221945Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES
BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT.

17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS
SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU
DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION
APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED
BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS
EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL.

MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF
A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD
LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

Next Tornado Watch will be NE OK...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0853.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221806Z - 222000Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY ALL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODED...THUS EXPECTED CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO ERUPT INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011